good morning. in japan, the nikkei plunging another 5%. >> oil shock. >> and jamie dimon is putting his money where his mouth is. the bank boss buying more than $25 million in jpmorgan shares. ite friday, february 12th, 2016. and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good mortgage and welcome to

cnbc. it's good to have you here the. >> busy market overnight. >> global markets are crazy. we have one trading session left on the woke. a second down week in a row. are we learning anything beside hes more doom and gloom? >> not too much other than the global markets seem to be driving everything. it's all about yell.. >> which is why you're going to learn today that "worldwide exchange" is the most important show on this entire network. happy to have you here. investors are now lost, to my point, nearly $1el 8 trillion this year. the s&p 500 down 10.5% since the first trading day of 2016. let's see how today's trading session is shaping up right now. after u.s. equities did close lower yesterday, but way off the lows, perhaps it was a turn around in oil on some opec rumors. either way, we're looking at a rebound on this early friday morning. 111 is how much dow futures are up at this hour. s&p futures up 15. nasdaq futures up 41. >> aside from the oil rumors

that did happen in the arch, it happened just as we hit those january lows. it seemed as though everyone was waiting for that level. we'll see if we test those lows again. though it looks like a rebound. >> overnight, a massive sell-off in asia. the nikkei opening again yesterday after the national holiday, plunging to close at its lowest level since 2014. the stronger yen, of course, huge part of this story. and this has been the story since you had that surprise move to negative interest rates by the bank of japan. >> stronger yen hurts japanese exporters. i can't even count how many japanese officials were out overnight trying to jaw bone or verbally intervene to show some worry. >> you also had some rumors about maybe some more meetings between abe and koroda. we don't know what's happening over there. sri jegarajah joins us live from

singapore with more on the asian markets. >> hi, mike. good morning. and tara, this one is for you. the dollar/yen, 12-month view, they see had it going to 105. 105. very aggressive call. so dollar/yen continuing to get smoked in the asian session. we force all 15-month lows in the cross. so stronger japanese currency, as you pointed out, puts incredible downside pressure on the exporters. toyota and honda. and then, of course, you have this issue with negative interest rate policy. boj style now, lingering doubts about the impact on the banks, the japanese mega banks, their margin and profitability. so nomura is a big loser today. the story doesn't end there. on monday, we get q4 japanese gdp, for all intents and purposes, this is going to be a shocker. some people are talking about a

contraction sequentially quarter on quarter in the region of about .7%. if we see a number in that ballpark, we could see another wave of selling. that's why we stand. back to you. >> i love how sri you just called me a wonk and used the term nerd. i guess it's becoming normal now. >> we're all one to be in this business. right, tara? >> indeed. thank you very much. what would the japanese stock market do if dollar/yen went to 105? >> down. >> it would go down. that would be a probable. we're watching a big move in oil prices this morning. the driver here, more opec rumors. the united arab emirates oil minister reportedly saying her members are ready to cooperate on a production country. but other countries like russia, venezuela, have called on cuts. it could point to actually something real? >> exactly. so the source might make this

have more credence than previous rumors. >> we'll believe it when we see it. >> exactly. still a tentative rally, you have to say. >> yeah. >> now over to europe, we have a rebound taking hold over there. at least partial recovery. and the fact that european bank stocks are being helped out by a little bit of a bounce. 1 3ers to 2% moves. >> you don't sound convinced. >> it's interesting. that much isn't recouping that many of thes losses. >> after yesterday, closed at the lowest level since 2013. >> yeah. and, of course, we all a remember tt buy european equities was one of the big consensus calls coming into this year. >> so this is a painful one. >> it is. >> we saw that huge move in yield yesterday. yields are higher today. that is a more positive sign, more positive sentiment. it's been a flight to safety all week long.

on the dollar, safe havens like gold, japan, japanese yen, treasuries have been rallying. not the dollar. the dollar's index is at a four-month low, watching that carefully going the other way the. dollar/yen, stronger and that's been better for stocks. gold prices, another major story of the week. goal prices are at a one-week high. some of these mining companies are up 60%. >> they had tremendous leverage. gold was on the verge of being discredited to a lot of people in the markets and them you had this huge spike. >> good for gold. a lot of doom and gloom out there. but not everyone is hiding under the mattress right now. john paulson says the u.s. isn't facing another financial crisis and he's saying valuable opportunities right now. michelle caruso cabrera catching up with paulson late yesterday. have a lisp.

>> there's a disconnect between the performance in the stokt market and the performance of many companies, particularly, you know, that we've invested in our portfolio and the stock prices are declining. so that is kind of an imbalance and eventually that will sort itself out. so i would say the market is somewhat overreacting to the current state of the economy. i guess when you think paulson, i do think crisis. that's a good thing, right? >> it is definitely a good thing. i don't know if you can expect somebody to call two crises in a row. >> got the mortgage. >> absolutely. but clearly, he's not positioned for that. >> the trading week wraps up

with several pieces of economic data today. the biggie will be january retail sales. sales are expected to have edged up slightly after dipping in december. core sales is going to be the one to watch. that takes out autos, gas and building materials. they're expected to rise solidly. also at that time, look for january falling oil prices. at 10:00 a.m., february consumer se sentiment and december business inventories. sentiment gauge always happens fast. if there is an impact from the falling market, we will see it here. new york fed president bill dudley will be speaking and i hate to say it, there could be a weather effect. >> there can be. i think you're going to have a lot of adjustments and taking it with a grain of salt. but interestingly, if you look at that realtime reading on what first quarter gdp is looking at,

it's above 2%. so it's telling you the domestic indicators are looking okay right now. >> maybe that's a catalyst. good economic data. let's get more on these markets. joining us now from london, alex drieden from jpmorgan asset management. coming into this week, i think a lot of people said these markets have been beating up a little bit. janet yellen will speak on capitol hill. maybe things will be looking better and we have more clarity on the outlook for the fed. didn't seem to have that effect. but what's been your take away from what the fed chair had to say this "discoveries this we " week"? >> i think what we've been seeing this week is markets start to go price in a greater chance of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. that's what's causing some of the ripple effects and the volatility in asset prices over the last few weeks. looking ahead, though, the central bank seems to be in a little bit of a difficult situation. you're looking at the bank of

japan, we are now exploring the world of negative interest rates. investors are starting to become more skeptical about how much more central banks can do to stimulate the economy. because that's feeding in to some of that? >> and do you think, in fact, the markets have gone most of the way towards pricing in a recession fairley soon or might we have more to go if those recession fears are not cooled off relatively soon? sure. i think our base case is still for modest growth in 2016 and into 2017. but this growing probability of a recession is being priced in. we're seeing a bit of a soft patch in the economic data, but we've seen this before. beginning at 2014 and beginning of 2015, and it rebounds and things today. >> if we play through this, we can see volatility over the next sex weekses, in our view.

>> if we start to get better economic data in the u.s., could that be the catalyst that turns this market around if investors have given up on policy as a catalyst? >> yeah. i think that and some soothing words from the fed and the course of interest rate hikes over the next sort of 12 months or so cohelp move the markets. but we need the fundamentals to start turning around or at least starting to show some signs of improvement. containment still looked quite strong into the business side of things that we're starting to be concerned about. we're looking at things like the ism is starting to trade in the right production. >> the extreme weakness in banks

globally suggest there's a contagion or some other sort of structural problem we might have to hear about before this is all over. how would you play that, that great unknown being evident in the way the banks are trading? >> yeah. i think when you're looking at financials at the moment, there's a long list of challenges that they're facing, loans that they made to energy company, how they survived in a world with negative interest rates as well as particularly in europe. a slew of reports of earnings in the last month or so. that's a lot of challenges on the european fm thes. looking ahead, how to play that some of the valuations in the seconder are kwooil quite compelling, there could be some opportunity. we don't think this is the 2008 financial crisis again. european banks and u.s. banks in a lot better position.. the regulators have done a lot of work to ensure the quality and the quality of balance sheets are much better than they were a few years ago. now, that should help in times of market stresses we're seeing at the moment. >> we should hope so. thank you very much.

>> thank you. >> speaking of jpmorgan, in corporate news, jp the morgan's ceo, jamie dimon, reportedly buying 500,000 shares of his own company's stock recently, more than $25 million worth. jpmorgan shares are about 20% lower for the year so far, matching the overall performance of the kdw bank stock index. dimon's purchase is certainly noteworthy. bob pisani reported this is only his third time actually buying shares on the open market in the last 12 years. he's clearly trying to make a strong statement that the banking sell-off is overdone. the question is will it work? >> it's very hard to say. although i did notice yesterday jpmorgan shares have reached a dividend. you have to think if there's no real disaster hiding in the book, it looks like a decent entry point. >> although bank of america has been slammed even more, more than 30%. >> jpmorgan has always traded at a premium, as well. yeah. now for some stocks to watch today. shares of groupon soaring.

sales were helped by strong demand in north america. aig, though, reporting a wider than spec'd loss in its most recent quarter. john paulson dropping their site with the exchange giant. shares, as you can see, traded a bit lower after this report. up 1.6% in the day yesterday. cbs posting earnings that were in line with wall street estimates. you see that stock actually had run up into the report, but gave up some of those gains afterwards. we'll stick with earnings. buy ride posting a smaller loss than what analysts were anticipating. but the firm did warn of lower growth and that sent shares lower. activisioning increasing its quarterly dividend on the heels of results that missed on both the top and bottom lines despite strong sales of its call of duty. shares down double digits, almost 14%. the "new york times"

reporting pandora has held discussions about selling itself. the stock got a pop on that report from the "new york times" of 10%. gave a lot of it back after results were -- >> just about all of it back, yeah. >> the question southbound what happens to pandora? that's an open question. >> and did they miss their chance to realize a lot more value by selling it at an earlier stage. when we come back, some reassuring words from the head of the euro group. plus, as always within we want to hear from you. our twitter question this morning comes from mike santoli. tweet us. we're asking, jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon bought his shares of the bank. would you follow him into the banking stock? yes or no. we're taking requests, as well. tell us what song you want to hear on "worldwide exchange." get the links on our twitter or facebook page.

michael santoli's favorite song will be coming up. we'll be right back on "worldwide exchange." looking for 24/7 digestive support? try align for a non-stop, sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day. live 24/7 with 24/7 digestive support. try align, the undisputed #1 ge recommended probiotic.

watching tvs get sharper, you've had it tough. bigger, smugger. and you? rubbery buttons. enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." after five down days for the s&p and the dow, will today be a rebound? it serm looks that way early. the question is, does it last? we've had a few failed attempts at rallies this week. so far, the dow futures are up more than 100 points. 1.32. s&p futures up 15.

the nasdaq futures up 42. nasdaq has gone back to outperforming in these last few sessions after heavily underperforming in the early part of this year. oil is up and europe is up. that's certainly helping. european banking shares have been a big part of this week's global market turmoil. but the euro group president telling cnbc this morning there's no threat of a repute of the financial crisis in europe. >> well, there is concern. yet we also realize we're in a much better situation than we were some years ago, both governments, governments budgets, the economy, real economy picking up throughout the eurozone. and our banks are in a much better situation than they were. balance sheets have been restructured and this process is still continuing with the new rules of the banking union in place. >> fears in the banking sector are overblown? >> i think a lot of the concerns are coming, actually, from outside the banking sector and coming from outside the

eurozone. it's about the global economy and the impact of oil prices. so let's not deviate from the work we're doing, which is about strengthening our economy in the eurozone. continue on that path and strength.ing the banks. >> there is a lot of talk trying to calm these markets out of officials and bank executives. >> and we keep getting assuresesans that it's not 2008. and, of course, 2011 was no picnic, either. >> based on what you're hearing, is it that fear of the unknown or is it just this really terrible reaction to negative interest rates, especially in europe? >> essentially, negative interest rates and market interest rates being solo, there is no buffer, no profit opportunity for banks to sort of

heal themselves based on their own regular run of business. >> and you wonder how much of that is baked in. >> yes. the nasdaq is down nearly 20% from last year's high, putting the index on the cusp of a technical bear market. how is the nasdaq and s&p after a major fall? the average return for both indices, over 6% over the next six months. experts specific names packed the biggest punch during that rebound if the tech declines are netapp, nvidia and priceline, among a few others there. and, of course, pretty specific circumstances there. it seems to me it's kind of the relative quality names that seem like maybe they rebound in that following six months. but i'll tell you, a 6% rebound in six months is great after you lost 20% rather quickly. >> and for more, go to cnbc.com

and check out cnbc pro. when we come back, hillary clinton and bernie sanders squaring off last night. we'll bring you the heat the exchanges from the debate in milwaukee next. but first, here is today's weather forecast from the weather channel. >> this is the day before the cold comes in. it is going to be a frigid, brutal weekend with cold. and winter watches up for pretty much the entire midwest and northeast. but today is the day the cold air moves in and we'll start to see it he across the upper midwest. temperatures in the 20s from chicago to new york. not bad in the south. enjoy 70s in atlanta. record breaking warmth in the west. ing. the arctic front, you see signs of it here with snow moving into parts of the midwest. the lake effect still going to be a story. the cold is going to be the biggest story for the weekend. again, we start to feel it today. today really, though, is the calm before the cold. you'll see that moving in right through the entire weekend into the north and east. for "worldwide exchange," i'm

jen carfagna. we'll be right back after this break. risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. karl, don't you have fryeah, so? ng over? it stinks in here. you've got to wash this whole room are you kidding? wash it? let's wash it with febreze. for all the things you can't wash, use... ...febreze fabric refresher whoa hey mrs. webber inhales hey, it smells nice in here and try pluggable febreze... ...to continuously eliminate odors for... ...up to 45 days of freshness pluggable febreze and fabric refresher... ...[inhale + exhale mnemonic]... ...two more ways to breathe happy

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." hillary clinton and bernie sanders debating in milwaukee last night. tracie potts joins us with the highlights. good morning, tracie. good morning. hillary clinton's game plan, it looks like she really wants to go after those millions of young voters who have been supporting bernie sanders by asking them a

question. whether or not the nation can really afford some of the things he's promising. >> and we should level with the american people about what we can do. >> every proposal that i have introduced has been faithful. >> the democrats' last debate before south carolina focused hard on issues and president obama. >> the kind of criticism that we heard from senator sanders about our president, i expect from republicans. >> madam secretary, that is a low blow. >> republican front-runner donald trump is taking in nearly all the competition including ted cruz's latest ad. >> he pretends to be a republican. >> i just hope you don't believe the crap because it's all crap, okay? they're lies. >> in the deeth south, they're focusing on faith. >> a lot of people ask me, you know, shouldn't you separate your faith from politics? and the answer is you better hope that i don't.

frankly, it's in the hands of the lord as to what happens next. >> jeb bush is hoping to energize his campaign by bringing in his brother, former president george bush on monday. >> he is the most popular republican alive. >> south carolina is in the business of picking presidents. >> today morallies in south carolina, but the candidates are also looking ahead. donald trump is in florida today. this weekend we'll see democrats in nevada and colorado. and, of course, now all the republicans are preparing for tomorrow night's debate and that's happening right there in south carolina. >> tracie, thank you very much. we find the republican debates a little more entertaining than the democratic debates. >> democratic debates are a little less personal, making juicy headlines. kanye west, speaking of juicy headlines, held a lisping party for his new album, the life of pablo. if you weren't among the 15,000 people this, you may not have heard it yet. but if it were up.to martin

scarelli, you never will. tweeting kanye, quote, last minute, can i buy your album out so it don't get released publicly? he followed that up with a formal letter offering $10 million for it. shkreli says kanye and his label are legally required to take the offer to their board which could delay the release. shkreli paid $for the only copy of the wutan's letter. he's weighing in on the popular abc reality show. he tweeted, quote, i'm 100 times the bachelor ben is. so it will be 100 times more interesting than @batchlore abc. he's getting better and better. even though his lawyer came on cnbc and talked to kelly evans and said he's young. sort of wish he wouldn't tweet as much. >> he cannot resist.

staying in the spotlight and really not for the reasons he necessarily wants to. >> i would love martin shkreli to be the bachelor in the next season. ben is good. >> do you think they would have a hard time finding contestants if that was the case? >> no, i don't. these women want to be famous and fall in love. and they will, no matter what's. when we come back, this morning's top stories plus bob doll joins us with his week's insights on the global market turmoil. stay tuned. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on krpz. mom knows it needs a big solution: an antiviral. don't kid around with the flu, call your doctor within the first 48 hours of symptoms and ask about prescription tamiflu. attack the flu virus at its source with tamiflu, an antiviral that helps stop it from spreading in the body. tamiflu in liquid form is fda approved to treat the flu in people two weeks of age and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if you're pregnant, nursing, have serious health conditions,

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good morning. what a wild ride. the nikkei plunging overnight. u.s. equity futures popping. volatility, once again, the word of the day. new this morning, opec speculation sendsing oil prices soaring. and no price is too high for the one you love, even if it has four legs. we're breaking hearts this morning with the dollars and cents wind the big business of valentine's day. it is friday, february 20th, 2016 and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" joined today by the one and only mike san tolly. it's been a crazy week for the markets. landon has a puppy for a special story.

>> you won't believe how many people spend on versus versus on their dogs. that story is coming up. but first, let's show what what we are looking at right now, which is a rebound in u.s. equity futures for the dow and the s&p. will today break the losing streak? it looks like things are going strong so far. they are off the best levels of the early session. s&p futures up nearly 15. nasdaq futures up nearly 40. we'll get retail sales and some other economic data. we'll get more earnings. >> as it's set up now, it looks like the indexes would gave about half of what was lost yet. this would not get us back to even before yesterday. joining us now is bob dahl. bob, good morning. >> happy friday. >> yes. well, let's hope it might be here. you know, this market has taken on the look of really a very broad liquidation, right?

this isn't just the kind of stock pickers, these guys hit earnings, they guys missed. it seems as though people are fleeing from risk in general. how do you read that dynamic? >> a lot of it is the price of oil. when oil goes down, the fear is we are heading for a recession. or when oil goes down, the fear is oh, my goodness, all the bad loans on the banks related to energy, with i better sell stocks so you're in this negative feedback loop that needs to be interrupted and oil going up is one way we can do that. >> are there any other ways bts easy oil going up? it seems as if you're seeing some understand magzs that people are trying to find some values here. is there anything to really kind of hang our had a hat on here that says the demanding might come back into this market? >> well, i think the dollar stopped going up is another interesting and positive sign

because, remember, the negative earnings revisions all last year had to do with rising dollar and falling oil. if we can break both of those, we actually might have some up earnings and that would be a good catalyst. markets flirting around the 1800 level on the s&p. we were at 2,000. down from that broad level i think indicates a 50% probability of recession. if we have one with, we probably go to 1600. if we don't, we can creek back to 16,000. i don't think the u.s. will have a recession in 2016. >> bob, everyone is going back to that level that we lost in august. when everyone was worried about china and its currency last year. the difference between now and august, we didn't see this panicky moment. none of those really moved last year. the fact that they're moving so much this year, what does that tell you? >> i think it tells us that the

world is concerned about some black swan somewhere, whether it's a china problem or a european financial problem. as you know, liquidity has ti t tightened up in lots of different ways. lower prices, higher volatility is part of thatlingage to the absence of liquidity. i think what you also have, sara, is the selling by sorchbs wealth funds that was probably not he kept by august and september. that's another seller that wants out in order to support their production. that was not present then. and, of course, you have the concern about the earnings as i mention. will we have a recession. so this episode he is a little more painful. >> it certainly is. bob, thank you very much. >> sounds like maybe some time for bottom fishing. sentiment has gotten no negative. >> sentimentwide, would he have primed for something, yes.

visa disclosing a nearly 10% stake in fair. visa made a strategic investment back in 2011, but never revealed the amount. it's get ago pop off of that news, though. wynn resorts, profits falling chart hi dragged down by its establishments in maccau. dr. pepper/snapple raising its quarterly dividend by 10%. raising its stock buyback plan to see 1 billion. still seeing more of this buying shares. more stocks to watch today, crosser is seeking to buy fresh

markets. reports say kroger, the nation's large ft super market chain is in its second round of an auction market. fresh market has 183 stores in 27 states. zillow reports a loss with higher charges related to its earnings. still reporting a drop in unique monthly visitors to its stock. and at&t plans to start testing 5g wireless technology that offers speeds at 10 to 100 times today's networks. it isn't expected to power smartphones until the end of the decade. last year, verizon said it would do some testing of 5g. expensing is coming up with mosh on earnings and disappointment. it is time for top trending stories. we're going to start with uber pb the it will pay $28.5 million to settle a class action suit

that claims the company misled passengers by charging them a safe right feet. the company has been under fire about current background checks which takes less than 36 hours. are they cheating? i don't know. >> they were getting called on an aggressive claim. but it seems to me these companies would rather ask forgiveness rather than permission. >> i guess that's a good thing. although this is confirmed with uber users like myself that these drivers are properly background checked, that it's safety. you're putting your life in their hands. >> and you hope they're good for it. >> google's european president was grilled about tax affairs this week. but when he was asked about his own paycheck, he wouldn't provide it. he's under no obligation, of course, to give his salary since the company is not listed on the london stock exchanges. and it happens to the best of us. marco rubio, apparently cracked

a molar on a twix bar. rubio was on a flight back to washington, d.c. and he said i think i'm getting old, man. cracking a tooth on the campaign trail. >> i have to say, maybe it kind of helps to humanize him a little bit. you never know. >> after he had a tough loss, number five in new hampshire. >> here you go. maybe this isn't a surprise that einstein was right about about something, again, scientist ves detected the gravitational waves or ripples in space that prove his general theory of relativity. you have to wonder if somewhere einstein is saying, why don't you just take my word for it. they have the tools now to find evidence of these waves with, of the postulating. >> big week for them. when we come back, today's must-read op-eds. and attention, procrastinators. valentine's day is sunday.

landon dowdy will join us with a look at the high price of love. landon. >> hi. that's right. americans are expected to spend record amounts this valentine's day. but the big surprise is how much they spend on these guys. more on that story, coming up. retirement savings. er for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. where self-proclaimed ofinancial superstars , pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you!

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welcome back. it's valentine's day this weekend. the first major consumer holiday of the year. retailers will be the ones getting lots of love this year. landon dowdy joins us with more on that. with a friend or no? >> stay tuned, mike.

stay tuned. that's right. americans are realizing the high cost of love this valentine's day. according to the national retail federation, it's more expensive than ever with total spending expected to hit a new high of $20 billion this year with the average american spending $512. that's a up 3% from 2015. so how does rising inflation impact your plans? the price of a night out increasing the move up nearly 4% in 2015. but on the flip side, good things may come in small packages. while jewelry is a big ticket item, it is a relative bargain this year, falling more than 1%. but humans aren't the only ones spoiling their loves ones. $681 million will be spend on furry friends. lower gas prices and promotions should have consumers shopping providing a big boost to the economy. you have to meet my valentine

here. he's adorable and very well behaved. this is his first live television appearance. >> is there a dog in your household? >> there is not. there are two cats. but i have to say, they won't be disappointed. right? anything you got them, it's never going to fall short. >> what are you going to do? >> leroy, my dog is in cincinnati. and i don't buy valentine presents for anyone. but i guess these spending figures show who people really love. >> it's all about the animal. >> no chak lat for the dogs, right? >> no chocolate for the dogs. no peanut better, either. they hate it. it is time for today's must-read stories, the ones catching our attention this morning. i chose big ackman, the ceo saying america is personing, but michael bloomberg can put out the fire. he is continuing to get mike running for president. it is time to put the fires out

and restore the united states to greatness. mr. bloomberg is the right choice. ackman does go through a series of problems with our debt, with our foreign policy, with our respect around the world and he goes through mayor black brurg's track record as mayor, what he's done to turn around the city economically, socially, how he's involved in the world stage and i think there is a growing chorus of people who want him to run. >> from a paragraragmatic persp, it makes a lot of sense on paper. i don't know that that's necessarily in tune with the national mood. >> my pick is in market watch this morning. it's entitled w is this the week central banks lost their market credibility. and this is something that's been really a lot of chatter around this week. now, the question happens to be, i think, is it just a matter of,

look, they prolonged the cycle, central banks did what they could for as long as they could and they may be out of am ewe stigz, but the tk was going to get to this point, anyway. eats just disappointing, at least right now, that the real economies have not come back as much. >> isn't it a scary thought, we can be letting into a period of global growth and there is nothing anyone can do about it. >> especially in the u.s. they serm have -- they're not quite all in as much as they -- >> think of negative rates. isn't tasting good. go back to qe. they seems to like that. >> it's like a bird flying backwards, people don't know what to make of negative rates. >> good one. the economic device between domestic demand and global influences continues to widen. that is causing people to become more risk averse. that's what's showing up in the

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it instantly hydrates to plump and lift. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the wall street set up is looking better today. but i have to tell you, s&p futures, nasdaq and dow futures are off the best levels of the session we saw about an hour ago. still, dow futures up 91. nasdaq up 34 and s&p up.13. can we break the five-day losing streak for the dow and the s&p will be the question on this friday. >> all these bounces have been suspect. the market has a lot to prove here that it can sustain any come back. john, we've seen these markets kind of have a broad scale panic here. bring us back to what the u.s. economy is doing at the moment. we're going to get some evidence of that with retail sales today. was your current read on how the

domestic sector is performing? >> well, i'll just follow up on your valentine's day starring the amount of money being spent on valentine and the expectations. the u.s. economy is doing okay. not great, but it's doing okay. we saw the job openings number earlier this week was solid. the employment number on friday was pretty good. wages are rising. so domestically, we're seeing the consumer and housing continue to improve. and i think there's a real contrast there between what's going on in the globe economy and it's important to remember about one-third of s&p 500 revenues/profits are earned abroad. so you can see the domestic economy is doing okay. that global influence is influencing stock market. >> we talked to ceo and cfos. we talked to the ceo of pepsi yesterday. what i fear is this market turmoil will lead businesses and consumers to eventually pull

pack. how bad does it have to get before it turns into an economic risk itself, what's happening in the market? >> well, there's no doubt that consumer confidence and business confidence is impacted by the information they receive from the stock market, but also janet yellen's testimony. kind of was interesting because they talked about, you know, gradual policy and maybe not being so convinced that the economy is doing well. that's interesting because now it is the economic impact in terms of expectations rather than, well, the fed is not going to raise interest rates that really matters here. an interesting twist on what we might have seen maybe six months or a year ago. no doubt, the stock market turmoil, the concern about what's going on with china is impacting business confident, impacting consumer confidence that will put a damper on consumer spending in the united states. >> the picture you're painting here, john, is of the corporate

sector. they're having to pay their people more which is good for the consumer getting higher wages. in that environment, what do you think the market wants from janet yellen, even if she's soft pedalling the idea of poor interest rate hikes. what more can she say or do at this point? >> first, you're quite right. at this stage of the cycle, unit labor costs are rising. listening to the commentary, they were expecting janet to say, hey, the economy is doing okay and we have possibly of raising rates. we twisted ourselves up relative to a year ago. now, janet, tell us the economy is doing much better so that you can raise rates and we can become more optimistic about the future. >> yeah. it would have been nice to hear that message yesterday.

jim cramer was talking about that, as well. the u.s. is the global growth engine right now and it can do so. but on this question about the consumer and the economic resilience of the united states, what are we going to see in retail sales for january? could we see a bounceback or is it about the weather. >> it's going to be a little bit about the weather, a little bit about bounceback. retail sales is a nominal number. so on a year over year basis, retail sales are up 7% or 4%. that's a 2% to 3% gain in real retail sales. that's pretty good for consumer spending. >> people don't really recognize that, in fact, last year we had real retail sales, real consumer spending that was at a decade high. is that something that's enough to filter into the stock market and people get excited, at least in the domestic focused sectors? >> it will help when we talk about consumer discretionary,

consumers staples. those companies are more dmeft cannily oriented. but when you're talking about materials, i.t., sectors that are highly leveraged to the globe economy, that's a different story. >> yet was just one day, but consumer discretionary stocks were flat. john silva, thank you. it is friday and it's time for chart of the week. what did you choose? >> i chose the kbe, which is the s&p bank sector. it obviously had a very hard time. you see that fall, especially just accelerating downward. and everyone says these stocks are cheap, they're trading at big discounts to book value. clearly the market is saying even if there's no disaster waiting or smouldering in the books is not that impressive right now. the dif dentd yield is inching up there.

at some point with jamie on closing bell, with we also heard from the former ceo of wells fargo saying he's been buying wells fargo. who knows if there's a sign there. >> and what did you ask about twitter? >> if people would follow jamie dimon into buying jp morgan sales. it's basically pretty evenly split. people are just jenning. >> hard to believe the energy stocks are doing better than -- >> it's remark blg. >> my choice, the rise in global investors. ever since japan took that plunge, it has been a blatant rejection of that policy. michael, thank you for filling in. that does it for today's show.

"squawk box" is next. i'll see you on sidewalk on the street. have a good morning. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

good morning. look out below. in japan, overnight, the nikkei reopened after a holiday and promptly dropped another 5%. 11% just in the last week or so. fallout from this week, global markets straight ahead. oil price he he rebounding on hopes of a coordinated production cut by opec, but wti is still trading below $28 a barrel. and jaemmy dimon is putting his money where his mouth is. the bank boss buying more than $25 million in jpmorgan shares. crew, it is worth $1 billion.

but maybe someone will notice a $25 million purees chas. it's february 12th, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and we are coming to you live from the at&t pro am at pebble beach, california, where business leaders are gathering on the golf course, but of course they are keeping a close eye on the markets and they are talking to us. later this morning, we'll be joined by at&t chairman and ceo randall stephenson. in just a few minutes, we'll be talking markets. the cio of guggenheim partners. in the meantime, scott woman ner and kayla tausche are holding down the fort in new york. >> good morning to you guys. it is earlier on th