good morning. happening now, the world's largest oil producers meeting in doha and agreeing to freeze output. >> breaking overnight, a rally in asia. chinese stocks turn in their best day in more than three months and now u.s. equity futures are soaring. >> and new this morning, a deal reportedly in the works for home security company avt. it's tuesday and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.

it is tuesday, february 16th. i'm sara eisen along with michael santoli. got confused with the presidents day holiday. >> feels like a monday. you didn't feel like it was three days off? >> i went to l.a. and back quickly. beautiful weather. >> a lot went on. >> if you went to sleep early last night, you miss the "uptown funk" willing record of the year. the complete rounds-up of the most memorable grammy moments in a bit. first, business news of the morning. >> the news is really the market news. big rally in asia. u.s. equity futures are following along, actually playing catch up. yesterday was a big global rally day as well. friday a very strong day. you see the s&p 500 set to open more than 1% higher. the dow futures up above 200 points. looks like they're going to tack on to friday's gains. seems like obviously a very strong day in the equity markets. today's big developing story is

oil. top officials from saudi arabia, russia, and several key opec producers have met in doha. the word is that the oil ministers there agreed to a freeze in output. you do see crude prices higher, but they were a good deal higher still before we got the news it was going to be an output freeze. seems like the market was anticipating the potential for an output cut. they certainly backed off a fair bit. i believe brent was around $36. >> this was one of their options, the talk of the freeze. they could have gone further and actually cut output. doesn't look like we're going to get that. >> and in fact, from thursday's lows, we're up more than 10%, both in brent and wti. clearly, the oil market has a firmer tone, but we don't know if we can believe it yet. of course, it's all contingent on many, many things. we don't know if this output freeze means iran is going to go along with it. >> for now, equities around the world are continuing to rebound. let's show you what's happening early in europe. gains for a third day in a row.

europe was open yesterday while the u.s. was closed. it gained. part of the reason why -- oh, looks like we're losing early gains in europe, except for the ftse 100 in the u.k. dax down fractionally at this hour. we'll keep an eye on that for you. yesterday in a speech, ecb president mario draghi says the european central bank is ready to act and could ease further in march. they'll evaluate whether lower crude prices and market turbulence could derail the ecb's efforts to boost inflation. again, talking up this idea they could reconsider their options in march. that sent the euro lower. it's a little higher today. but you saw significant weakness yesterday. also, keep a close eye on the dollar-yen. we're seeing yen strength, which is a cautionary symbol lately. everyone has been watching the japanese yen. when it gets stronger, that hurts stocks. though we got a stunning rally out of japan yesterday, up more than 7%. >> absolutely. in part, they were catching up

friday, u.s. rally. you did have this kind of strength passed around the world. as you say, the strong yen is not really what you want to see for risk markets. >> we've also got other central bank news this morning. south korea keeping its interest rates unchanged for an eighth straight month as expected. the central bank saying it is monitoring the effects of global policy changes on the slowly recovering economy. meantime in china, reuters reporting that the people's bank of china is cutting lending to zombie firms. they're also said to be stepping up the disposal of bad assets to promote mergers and acquisitions. also, supportive talk over the weekend from china. they also let the currency strengthen and the market jumped on that. we saw one of the biggest moves we've seen in decades for the chinese currency. >> exactly. just as everyone was leaning the other way. seems like they took the opportunity. >> pretty much wiping out most of the losses. >> let's get to more about asia overnight. major markets closing higher pretty much across the board.

most experts warning that more volatility is likely to come. susan lee joins us here on set with that story this morning. >> good morning. yeah, i guess everybody was pricing in some sort of selloff when china opened up after the week long holidays. pre-emptively, we heard from the central bank governor ahead of the markets. everyone knew it was going to be under pressure. he said, look guys, we're not going to devalue the currency any further. we're not going to get more weakening in the rmb. you saw that also with the trade surplus. we're looking at $63 billion. that's a monthly record for the trade numbers. that also shows that china's running a current account surplus, which means there isn't that much pressure on the currency so appreciate in the future. but also, we saw the loans number today. i think a lot of people are talking about the loans number. it was a record number of aggregate loan increases in china. so there's a lot of credit slushing around. money supply was more than what

people had expected. they're turning on the taps right now in china. there's talk that, yes, we're going to get monetary stimulus. maybe we'll see more fiscal side reform first. when you do something monetarily, your currency tends to weaken. so we're looking at more m&a maybe, promotion of m&a activity, some tax breaks, and also they might be reducing the level, the minimum level of bad loan ratios that banks have to cover in the future. >> buried amid soft only positive news flow, you had positive inflows falling. >> exports down 1%. what does that show about global demand? >> those were both weaker than expected. were those just brushed aside in an effort they're going to stimulate? >> i guess people looked at the aggregate number of $63 billion when it comes to the trade surplus. at least china is still taking in money. they sell more than they buy at this point. the currency is the key right now to chinese markets. if there isn't that much pressure for it to weaken,

that's a good thing from the market's perspective. >> what's interesting is the story of last week was that central banks around the world somehow losing legitimacy, people don't think they have freedom to affect markets. across the world, especially in china, as well as in europe, you have central bankers saying we're not just going to allow that to happen. we're going to try. >> you saw the reaction in the r&b. biggest day of strength since it floated in 2005. c >> maybe they've still got it, the central bankers. >> or they're just not going to go quietly. they've reached the end of what they can do in terms of their potency. >> susan, thank you. good to see you early this morning. maybe a holiday shortened week, but there's still plenty of data on the u.s. calendar, including reports on housing, inflation, and minutes from the last month's fed meeting. today, look for the february empire manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m. eastern and the monthly sentiment survey from the national association of home

builders at 10:00 a.m. a lot of fed speak. several officials speaking out throughout the day and week. philadelphia fed president patrick harker, then brand new minneapolis president and boston fed president all today. we have six fed speakers on the docket this week. earnings will get very interesting later this week when we hear from retailers, including walmart. wednesday's fed minutes will also be a key theme. you wonder if the focus is going to shift to the u.s. the better economic data here and this idea that the market is really pushing the fed to recalibrate the decision in march and potentially wait. >> that was the story of january into february. we did get stronger numbers. sort of changed the conversation a little bit. we'll see if walmart continues. walmart has been one of the exceptions of relatively strong stocks this year. >> defensive, turnaround maybe. >> maybe. >> you think it's defensive. >> no, it should be. well, it's a consumer staple.

let's get to more on the broader global markets. joining us from london is the senior european economist at jeffries international. if you could just walk us through a little bit the reaction to mario draghi's comments. he sort of hit on his common theme of we can do more, we're willing to do more. does the market sort of believe that there's truly the potential for a lot more in terms of ecb policy moves come march? >> the markets are motte sure at the moment. i think that seems to be the general sort of perception. willing to give them the benefit of the doubt until the 10th of march. then i guess we'll find out how aggressive ecb wants to be. certainly what we got out of draghi yesterday was not really a lot of new information relative to what we had before. he spoke for 2 1/2 hours almost in front of the european parliament, answering a lot of questions about what policy tools ecb has at its disposal. he basically said everything is on the table. we have the tools to get inflation back to target. i guess for the markets, it's

not obviously words that matter. it's action. everyone is waiting for the 10th of march 20 see how aggressive ecb is and what other measures mario draghi might put forward. >> of course, the big question now is just exactly how much negative interest rates can go more negative given the banking system in europe. is there a sense there's not as much room to maneuver? >> we think there's room to maneuver. from our perspective, i think e drrks b can cut the rate by another 30 to 40 basis points without necessarily affecting banking ability that much. if you look at bank profit margins, they're relatively healthy. certainly there's possibility if the ecb were to cut the rate more negative. at that point, banks in europe could simply pass on those negative rates on to their

customers. i think there's room for them to cut the rate. as i said, i think for the markets, it's really just part of the story. increasingl where a lower oil price was seen as positive for the global economy. now everyone is asking, well, you are going to get second-round effects. so potentially it has more damaging impacts on the global economy than previously realized. once oil price finds a floor, that will be relief to central bankers, relief to the markets. at that point, we can fast forward and try to have a

reasonable estimate of where inflation is going to bottom out over the course of 2016. >> but to today's agreement specifically, what is the significance of today's agreement in doha? from your perspective and from the trading floor behind you, do they see that as a significant step towards stabilizing the price? >> i don't think so. i don't think there's tooc much of a reaction as of yet. we'll see what happens when the u.s. markets come into life. from the european perspective, you haven't seen much of a move. obviously oil prices is up a little bit, but it's not -- i don't think the move is that significant. i guess we'll have to see how markets react later in the day. so far, there hasn't been much of a reaction. >> certainly a lot of suspicion greeting every rally. thank you very much. >> we have some corporate news to share with you this morning. apollo global reportedly closed a deal to purchase adt. apollo would merge adt with another security company it already owns.

no price tag yet, but adt is valued around $10 billion. you noted this could be significant, just to see private equity back in the market. >> maybe we unlocked the market a little bit. this is a unique one. apollo already owns a company in this industry. this is yet another one. >> we'll see. specific case or sign that we're back in. >> now we want to hear from you. we asked you on twitter, can countries freezing oil production as we've been talking about, does this put a bottom in oil? vote in our poll on twitter. >> coming up, the trade of the day. first as we head to break, we have a birthday. happy birthday carl icahn, turning 80 today. his birthday wish might have something to do with oil prices. icahn enterprises is at a three-year low after a string of losing energy bets. keep an eye on oil, trading higher off the highs on that

announcement of an output freeze. we'll be back on "worldwide exchange." looking for 24/7 digestive support? try align for a non-stop, sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day. live 24/7 with 24/7 digestive support. try align, the undisputed #1 ge recommended probiotic. hey, jesse. who are you? i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. over time, your money could multiply. hello, all of you. get organized at voya.com.

♪ no, you're not ♪ yogonna watch it! ♪tch it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the overnight narcotic action. global markets were open on monday as the u.s. had a trading holiday for presidents day. they rallied in general. asia has tackedn to yesterday's rally. japan up 1.4% after a historic rally on monday. in general, you had strength as we also had some easing noises

out of the people's bank of china. it generally was a positive tone. europe traded higher yesterday, on monday's open day. the dax, as you can see, has given up most of those gains. that's a bell weather for europe. down almost 0.75%. oil gave up some of its gains for the morning. u.s. equity futures are poised to open higher. in fact, higher by more than 1% it looks like right now. 1880, s&p futures indicated open. that would actually be significantly above about 70 points where we bottomed last thursday. so it seems as if the market wants to see if this rally is going to stick. >> one part of the story here, mike, the big developing story overnight, oil top officials from saudi arabia, russia, and several key opec producers agreeing to freeze output.

nancy hulgrave is following the developments from london and just what it means and how the price will react to it. >> hi there, sara. well, if we can get a check on the oil price at the moment, we're looking at brent crude up about 2%. we're in the green. that is off considerably from what we saw earlier in the session of gains of around 5%. that was on a lot of optimism, enthusiasm over this meeting going on in doha. what we heard in the last hour is that saudi arabia, russia, venezuela, and qatar coming together in principle to agree to a freeze of output at january levels. however, that's if, and this is a big if here, if other producers come together and agree to that freeze as well. there are some big question marks around this, chief among them being iran. iran just getting back on after those sanctions were lifted. they're keen to get production going, and many doubts over to what extent, if any, they'll be willing to constrain production. but the saudi minister has come out saying a production freeze at january levels would be,

quote, adequate. they've also said there is no plan for a meeting of non-opec and opec members in the immediate future, but they'll be looking at additional steps in the coming weeks. we know the venezuelan oil minister is due to meet with officials in just a few days. back to you. >> all right, nancy. >> now let's get to today's trade of the day. the chinese stock market higher after being closed last week for lunar new year. our data team crunched some numbers to find out which u.s. stocks have the most to gain. well, the fxi, which is the large cap etf for mainland china, when it does rally, expedia, priceline, apple, and mastercard all rose. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc pro. seems like some sort of high beta nasdaq names might be the way to play the inflation trade. >> when we come back, highlights from last night's grammy awards. the winners, the losers, and the moments that everybody's going to be talking about at the

office today. but first, as we head to break, here's today's weather forecast from the weather channel's chris warren. >> sara and mike, early on today, it's going to be storms in florida that we're going to be watching after a very active day yesterday with tornadoes happening from mississippi to florida. we are looking once again at stormy conditions here. meanwhile, it's the northeast seeing some big changes, either snow and ice changing over to rain or you're going to be in heavy snow for a while. parts of new york and pennsylvania will see some of the heaviest snow. otherwise, what you're going to notice, and notice in a big way in the northeast today, the temperatures. it is going to be much warmer. you're going to go instead of highs in the 30s, it's going to be highs in the 50s today. it is going to be a much milder day. coldest air still around the great lakes. we're watching for a big warmup here in the southern plains. in the next couple days, we're looking at the financial for record heat, something we're going to toll low. i'm meteorologist clirs warren from the weather channel. "worldwide exchange" will be

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welcome back. in political news this morning, the race for the white house heating up for both parties. the focus shifting to south carolina. here's nbc with the latest. >> reporter: jeb bush got some help on the campaign trail from his brother, former president george w. bush, with choice words for gop rfront runner donald trump.

>> and in my experience, the strongest person usually isn'ted loudest one in the room. >> reporter: for his part, the billionaire largely dismissed jeb bush's campaign. earlier in the day at a news conference, trump repeated his attacks aimed at another rival, ted cruz. >> he doesn't even have the right to serve as president or even run as path. he was born in canada. so i will bring that lawsuit if he doesn't apologize. >> reporter: senator cruz dismissed trump and suggested the suit was a sign of desperation. >> this is the most rattled i've ever seen donald, this press conference today. >> reporter: on the democratic side, former secretary of state hillary clinton focused on saturday's caucus in nevada. clinton hopes to rebounds after her loss in new hampshire to bernie sanders, who she believes is only concerned with wall street. >> i'm not a single issue candidate because this is not a single issue country. >> reporter: bernie sanders has brushed off that charge and took his campaign to michigan. he said he met with families affected by the water crisis in flint. >> i've just come from a meeting, which was one of the

more difficult meetings that i have ever attended. >> reporter: analysts believe the flint water crisis is an issue that resonates with african-american voters across the country. >> the other big story on the campaign trail, of course, breaking over the weekend, speculation about who president obama will nominate to replace antonin scalia on the supreme court. john harwood will join us with that story in the next half hour. >> it, too, becomes an increasing campaign issue. >> a new story line. just what we needed. >> did you watch the debate saturday night? >> i did not. >> you missed a good one. it was fiery. sort of jerry springer-esque. it was a night filled mostly with hits at the grammys on monday. rapper kendrick lamar brought the energy level up with a rouses performance of his anthem "all right." taylor swift sang her latest single and took home album of the year for "1989."

lady gaga put together a memorable tribute to david bowie, melding ten of his songs into a psychedelic sing along. adele returned to the grammy stage, but her performance fell a little flat as her audio cut out for a few seconds at the beginning. remember, her album couldn't be nominated because it was too late. it will get nominated next year. >> seems like crowd pleasing winners. not too many surprises. >> which is unusual for the grammys which pick the more obscure. >> on the other hand, grammy watchers had one nominee for a nonwinner on monday night. that was cbs. they took to twitter to complain about the network's streaming app. they say they couldn't watch early parts of the grammys with some saying the site kept crashing. cbs says there was a brief issue verifying users' locations. cbs all access costs $5.99 a month and is aimed at younger viewers who don't have a cable subscription. >> and it turns out movie audiences didn't want much romance this valentine's day.

they were looking for action instead. violent and four-letter words. "deadpool" topped the box office with $135 million. that's a record opening for an "r" rated film, besting "the matrix reloaded" back in 2003. it also was the biggest opening weekend ever for 21st century fox, beating the $108 million from "star wars: revenge of the sith" in 2005. >> february you don't think of as a big box office month. big ones there. >> how about it? i did not see it, by the way. >> me either. speaking of "star wars," filming of the next installment began in london on friday. two new cast members were announced for episode viii. details about their characters aren't known. episode viii is set for release in december 2017. >> i wonder who they play.

especially laura dern. >> i guess we don't even know what the setup is going to be. >> we have no idea. when we come back, this morning's top stories, including the big oil meeting in doha and an agreement to freeze output. levels are higher but certainly off the highs on that decision. and it's 5:00 somewhere. right here on "worldwide exchange" actually. just ignore the a.m. part. it's time for a toast. surprising new information on who is drinking half of the wine in the u.s. these days. that's straight ahead. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ you're not gonna watch it! ♪

♪ no, you're not gonna watch it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song.

good morning. breaking overnight, the world's largest oil producers meeting in doha and agreeing to an output freeze. >> washington watch. a political fight over the next supreme court justice. >> and check this out. why kanye wants to borrow $1 billion from mark zuckerberg. it's tuesday, february 16th, 2016, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli sitting in for wilfred this morning. taylor swift's "1989" taking home album of the year at the grammys last night. we're playing all the winners on today's show. this is the winner for me. >> i have a daughter who would agree with you. she was worried she wasn't going to win. it helps out for me she did. >> and how about that opening performance?

you didn't watch it. >> no, i did not. we were on the road. >> today's top story, oil and the global market. top officials from saudi arabia, russia, and several key opec producers meeting in doha today. this is the highest level discussion we have seen in months. the agreement on the output cut is helping oil prices, but we have to tell you they were higher even before that agreement came out, on speculation perhaps we would see something more, like an output cut. wti crude in this country trading just below $30 a bar real. >> the standard line has been if oil could just stabilize, maybe that would be okay. we're up about 10% from it the lows of last week on both brent and wti. we can check on stocks this morning. globally speaking, we were in rally mode, at least beginning in asia. we are going to continue on friday's rally. the s&p 500, dow, and nasdaq will be catching up to the

global rally yesterday to some degree. seems like about 1% or better across the board. the s&p 500 has had a couple of these very quick bounces off the recent lows. they didn't really amount to too much. they were just about 3%, 4%, or 5% and then went back down and gave it up. we'll see if this one has a better shot at sticking. we'll go to europe. there was a little bit of disappointment hitting european equity indices. you see them backing off a little today, softening up. modest losses, giving back some of yesterday's gains. in asia, we were pretty much up across the board. the hang seng up 1%. seems like we firmed up. you had some more talk about liquidity measures and helping things out from the central bankers over there. >> altogether, seems like energy firms and banks will be the ones to watch. that's what led us higher on friday after jamie dimon says he's buying his own stock. europe also rallied yesterday after draghi comments. then there's the washington news.

democrats are insisting president obama's choice to replace supreme court justice antonin scalia get an up or down vote. but republicans are vowing to block it so the next president can fill the vacancy. john harwood joins us with the latest setup. what a weekend, john. >> reporter: crazy shift in this race. sara, this affects not only washington as it is, but washington as it will be in 2017. on the former, there's no question that both sides are right on this. president obama has the responsibility, constitutionally, to appoint a successor to antonin scalia. republicans have the responsibility and opportunity to make a judgment on that nominee. they do not have to schedule a vote. mitch mcconnell was very clear and very quick to come out and say we're not going to consider it. the question is whether he can sustain that position over the course of the year because democrats are going to try to put pressure on him, portray republicans as gumming up the works of government, as not

doing their duty. democrats are quick to point out that justice anthony kennedy was confirmed in a presidential election year, which is part of the justification republicans g. give for not moving on a unanimous vote. this also ripples through the presidential race because you've got ted cruz in south carolina who is an experienced supreme court litigator. he spoke fluently on that issue. that's something that plays to his wheelhouse, but we don't know how that's going to affect polling in south carolina. donald trump has a big lead. donald trump is ahead by 10 to 20 points in various polls. we're going to see whether he can hold on and keep his advantage. one other group to watch is the senate republicans who were up for election in 2016. people like rob portman, moderate republican running in the state of ohio, is he going

to be able to stand behind, as he did over the weekend, his leader, mitch mcconnell, and say, no, we don't want to confirm an obama choice for the supreme court. you can bet the president will pick somebody who is going to have a wide appeal, widest possible appeal to republicans, somebody like jane kelly, who's on the appeals court, who's close to chuck grassley, the republican who chairs the judiciary committee. lots of moving parts. we're going to have to watch this for a while, let the shock set in, and see how the politics shake out. >> that's where i was just going to go with a question, which is this idea that the white house can actually be quite savvy when it comes to nominating a justice that republicans have already voted for or can get on board with, someone more mainstream. i know there are a lot of names floating out there. do you expect the administration to go this route? if so, what kind of names should we be looking for? >> reporter: well, absolutely i expect them to go this route. there are two in particular. jane kelly, the one i mentioned, she's an iowan, confirmed

unanimously with the backing of the republican chairman of the judiciary committee, chuck grassley. also, on the appeals court in washington, d.c., also approved unanimously by this republican controlled senate. so if the white house puts forward a name and says all of you have already voted for this person, that puts increased political pressure on them not to hold out and delay. we just don't know whether they can sustain that. the pressures of the campaign trail right now are impelling both republican candidates and republican senate leaders to say we're not going to consider it, and that is their constitutional opportunity, if they choose to take it. but democrats are going to try to make them pay a price. >> john, thank you. and i read your piece over the weekend. it's great. everyone should go to cnbc.com, the harwood file, on this issue. for the first time this weekend, the narrative really started to change around the markets and politics with this whole idea that, hey, wait a second, trump and sanders have the momentum,

both would be very negative for the markets. maybe that's contributing to some of the selloff we've seen. >> you can't really discount it at this point. we're getting close enough. the races have not really sorted themselves out in a way that the markets would like to see. i don't think it's about specific policies. it's about what it says about the public mood, the anti-corporate, anti-capitalist rhetoric on both sides. >> the policies with trump and his 45% tariff on china. >> i think there's a sense not a whole lot would be pushed through from either of those agendas. i don't know that it's really about that. it's about we don't know if these are steady hands we want in charge. >> we have corporate news as well this morning. bank of america giving chairman and ceo brian moynahan a pay raise. the company raising his compensation by more than 11.5%. moynahan did not get a cash bonus consistent with past years. b of a more than doubled its profits last year. jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon got a

35% raise to $27 million, which he then spent on buying back his company shares. bank of america was down 4% last year. this year, the stock is off nearly 30%. it's been one of, if not the, hardest hit. >> it's been in the bull ye's e. another oil and gas producer falls victim to tumbling energy prices. paragon filed for chapter 11 sunday. about 60 oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy over the past 16 months. paragon informatiwas able to ne deal with lenders to keep operating. seems like we'll have more of those arrangements. >> oh, yes. all right. we have a look at today's top trending stories starting with it feels like every day kanye is trending, but it's true. he took to twitter this weekend asking mark zuckerberg to bail

him out of his $53 million debt. the rapper reached out to google's larry page. kanye's arguing, i have so much more to offer the world in terms of art, music, and fashion. i just need someone to fund me to do it. kanye west on twitter is a phenomenon. >> it's unbelievable. >> i don't understand why it's not helping twitter's stock. >> that's the whole thing. he gives it away. there's nobody really monetizing it that well. it's kind of amazing. >> but you have to watch it. >> i wonder, i don't think this is what mark zuckerberg had in mind when saying he was going to give away 99% of his wealth. >> we'll see if we get a response. >> well, a new study shows millennials drank nearly half of the wine in the u.s. last year. over half at wine drinking millennials said they talk about wine on facebook. this gets to a little bit of a pet peeve for me about

millennials are everything to everyone everywhere. they're pretty much half of the adult population at this point. so we have all these stories that say millennials do things that adults have always done. that's kind of what we're seeing a lot of. >> or it could speak to shifts in the beverage -- >> type of beverage, without a doubt. >> millennials rule the world. face it, mike. you're in denial. in other alcohol news, and this gets to that really, because despite the craft beer craze, liquor is making a comeback with its sixth consecutive year of market share gains. this is according to the dist l distilled spirits council. beer share has fallen eighth percentage points since 2000 while liquor has risen six. i'm on board with this. i'm a cocktail drinker. i'm a millennial. >> this makes a lot of sense to me just because big beer, this industrial food, industrial beverage is not something that plays with people.

>> it's also heavy, and it makes you fell. cocktails are so light and pleasant. >> all right. sold. more than 10,000 black tip sharks have parked just off the koegs of palm beach county for the winter. this is further north than usual. they usually migrate to the miami and ft. lauderdale coastline. researchers are tagging the sharks and say they pose little threat to humans, which historically have only bitten a few times. >> i don't know. still scary to go to palm beach county. up next, we have today's must reads, including reaction to the death of the supreme court justice scalia. what republicans are threatening to do has not been done since before the civil war. obviously an important story that we've got covered for you. first as we head to break, how about the dollar this morning. it's actually started weakening. a little bit of a reversal from yesterday with the euro marching higher. importantly, the yen is

stronger. we'll keep an eye on that, which hasn't done good things for u.s. equities in the past. we'll see if futures can hold this rally. stay tuned. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. you gein your car. odors you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this. {ding} eliminate odors you've gone nose blind too, for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip. wow, it smells good in here. so you and your passengers can breathe happy. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?

sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. it is time for today's must reads. the stories that caught our attention. too much to choose from on washington. i pick "the washington post" column titled "the ugly political spectacle around justice scalia's death." this is from dana milbank.

rewrote, the proverbial before the body was cold announcements began nine minutes after the san antonio paper tweeted scalia's death. he went on to write, force obama's nominee to prove that he or she is in the mainstream, but unless the senate wants to return to antebellum divisions going back before the civil war, don't deny that nominee consideration. he says it's a sad commentary on the divisiveness in washington. it's going to set up this whole battle, and we haven't seen these prolonged periods where you don't have all the supreme course justices since back to civil wartimes. >> i have to say, it's a lot to ask in this environment. would we really think we'd squander the opportunity to go each to our different corners and fight this one out in a nasty way in washington. it's just too big a deal. there aren't that many vacancies that pop up all the time. >> we'll see who the obama

administration puts out. if it's someone that the senate has to at least hear. >> certainly interesting. >> mcconnell is threatening not even having a hearing. >> tactical calculations change in a lame duck year. sticking with the political theme, my pick is in "the financial times." it's titled "the revival of american isolationism." the author writing that the living standards of middle income americans have been under pressure for decades and foreigners and internationally elite are easy scapegoats. this is a fairly accurate assessment of some of the rhetoric out there on the campaign trail. i think that europeans or folks in the u.k. traditionally worry that america is just going to turn inward. they're always on alert. i think probably every election cycle for the possibility that the u.s. just kind of wants to occupy itself. >> but it's the economic populism from trump and sanders

which i think might surprise people who look at the unemployment rate at 4.9%. the fact that the stock market has had a good few years and the economy has generally recovered. lack of wage growth has to do with it. >> absolutely. >> has to do with this rising -- >> lack of wage growth, fighting the financial crisis. it turns to openness to trade, which is a concern for the world. >> yeah, on the trump policies. all right. we're coming up on the top of the hour. that means "squawk box" is getting ready for today's show. michelle caruso cabrera is filling in today. she joins us from new york as we look at this nice rally from futures. even though oil came off the highs after that opec announcement, what are you watching? >> we'll be watching that for sure. we'll be talking about the big rally we've seen for two days now overseas. also, talk about what's going on with the supreme court. you were just talking about that e editorial. we have a former clerk to chief justice roberts to talk about what he expects to happen and how some of the key decisions we've been waiting for that

affect the business community might be affected, particularly immigration, and also the situation with unions and the requirement to pay dues. we have two guys on who say kyle bass is wrong, that the chinese government does not need to nor will want to devalue the currency. the move in the currency of china has twice seemingly seemed to destabilize the international markets and the u.s. markets. that'll be an interesting point of view. >> after we saw china's currency jump this week, the biggest jump in more than a decade, going totally against the bass argument. that'll be a good one. michelle, thank you. see you at the top of the hour. when we come back, well-known raymond james strategist called a bottom in stocks last week. we'll see if he's sticking by his prediction after friday ended a five-day losing streak. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. friends coming over?

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welcome back. the u.s. equity futures set to open in rally mode, about 1% at the start, adding to friday's gains after a three-day weekend. let's talk more about the markets with jeff suts. we had what you always call one of these selling st inin ining g into last week. where does that leave us now after friday's bounce, in your estimation? >> lost jeff. good question though. >> sorry. i'm in suspense. i believe he thinks the bounce can hold. we'll see. >> meantime, we should get to our twitter question on oil. >> question asked, with countries freezing oil production, does this put a bottom in oil prices? so far, 47% say yes, 53 say no. i guess you might expect it to be a pretty even split ginn how

unpredictable it was. >> that's the goal. we want 50/50 splits. i think it's interesting a little more of you say no. keep voting. we have a few hundred so far. here's the picture for oil. wti crude is higher by about a percent. brent the international benchmark by almost 2%. it was 5% higher before this announcement. the bulls, i guess, would say that it's taken months and now years of pain and finally you're getting diplomacy and you're getting an actual agreement and you're seeing the pain. >> or at least desperation taking hold. what's interesting is how tentative it is. in years past, opec really had the power to shut things off. they probably would have moved more quickly. but there are other concerns. maybe they want to play that market share game a little bit. >> all sorts of geopolitical issues. the saudi-iran relationship, the saudi-russia relationship. meantime, let's get to corporate news for you. apollo global reportedly close

to a deal to purchase adt. apollo would merge adt with another security company it already owns. no price tag yesterday. you thought this was interesting given we haven't seen a lot of action from private equity lately, but adt might be a special case. >> looks like a special case. they already own a home security company. still, it shows the market is not totally locked out. we'll see if that does develop into a confirmed transaction. meanwhile, let's get back to jeff. he does join us on the phone. so jeff, i was saying, you thought we had one of these selling stampedes you like to refer to into last week. got that nice bounce on friday. is this a bounce we can believe in right now? >> yeah, i think if you can spring more than three consecutive days together on the upside, i actually said to joe and becky a week and a half ago that the model was calling for a bottom last week at 31 sessions on the downside. i think that's enough to qualify as at least a near-term bottom. we'll have to see if it turns into something more.

>> what are we going to be looking for in terms of clues, whether it's the rhythm of the market or whether oil can keep these gains? >> selling stampedes typically only are interrupted by one to three-day pauses and or rally attempts. tucked string together four consecutive up days, that historically would break the back of the selling stampede and sign the all clear. >> so jeff, we asked on twitter, and we're still getting results, whether we've seen the bottom or at least a floor under the oil market given the coordinated action to freeze output. what do you think? >> i've tried three times last year to call the bottom in oil and got it wrong each time. i'll defer to my chief energy analyst. >> well, energy analysts have got it wrong too. >> marshall made the negative call on crude oil a few years ago. he's telling me that his model is more bullish than it's been in four years. so he was looking for some kind of low in the first half of this year and higher prices in the back half. >> but you do have to advise

clients whether or not to buy energy companies. so if you do believe we've seen a lower bottom or the worst of the pain, would you be a buyer? >> i think you can buy an investment grade package of the master limited partnerships, the midstreams, not the upstreams, because i think the upstreams' business model is broken. but the midstreams. you can buy a package of those with an aggregate yield of 7.5%. they have real assets and real cash flows. longer term, i think you're going to do just fine with those. >> just how are you thinking about this market overall right now? a lot of people saying this has been bear market type action, majority of stocks down 20%, 30%. is it still a bull market? >> i think it is. we had an accident in 1987 in october where they took 22% and change out of the market in a day. if you look at that in retrospect, it was just a blip. >> all right. jeff saut, thank you very much. >> we got him and got his call.

thanks, mike, for sitting in for wilfred. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next here on cnbc.

good morning, everyone. key oil producers agreeing to freeze output, but the deal is contingent on cooperation from other major players. we have the details straight ahead. breaking overnight, a rally in asia. chinese stocks turning in their best day in over three months, and now u.s. equity futures are soaring. plus, supreme court politics. a battle shaping up between president obama and senate republicans over who should fill the open seat on the court. we have analysis from john harwood coming up. it is tuesday, february 16th. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where

business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso cabrera along with becky quick and brian sullivan. joe and andrew are off today. we're going to start this morning with oil, because top oil officials from saudi arabia, russia, and several key opec producers are meeting in doha. the oil ministers agreeing to freeze output. but there's a caveat. they add that the deal is contingent on other producers, that means also iran and iraq. it's important to note that iran was not at the meeting and has been planning to ramp up shipments due to the easing of sanctions. right now the price of oil is higher by 41 cents, a gain of more than 1%, 29.85. seeing brent way back above 30 here. 34.06 per barrel a gain of 67 cents, a gain of more than 2%. the correlation between u.s. equities and oil seems to be continuing this morning because u.s. equity futures are higher this morning as a result, perhaps. dow would openig