to be more tomorrow. two fed governors, fed president john williams will be speaking. and a panel on international monetary policy coordination. >> you made it sound very compelling. if you have some data. >> maybe we'll get profit numbers, too. guys, thank you so much. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. thanks, kelly. "fast money" does start right now. overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa. tonight on fast, apple, the stakes growing by the minute in the battle with the government. plus, fed president fuller said the economy is far from a recession. the surge in the dollar they say the fed is missing a key point. it could spell trouble for stocks. we'll explain. later, one major media company may be in the throes of a death spiral. it could send shock waves across hollywood we've got the details.

into the close, dow ending higher by 212 points. citigroup raising concerns about the risk of a global recession. there are curious moves that stuck out to us. energy stocks for one. couldn't catch a bid despite the spike in oil in the session. actually, outperforming the broader market. in an interesting surprising market like this, what can you actually own. guy? >> i think you can own some of these energy names. now, i think tim probably agrees. he's been sort of beating this drum for a while. it all really started a couple of weeks ago when you saw the reversal in the index from 81 down to 71. in a single state time. since then, the volatility has been taking out of the energy market. i don't think you would own the integrated names, but i think the refiners have been sold off too far. i thought we'd get down to 1860 or so in the s&p. given tuesday's action.

obviously got down to 1890. i missed it. i was wrong. 1950 has been the line in the sand. the bulls are absolutely proving themselves right now. >> how about sanity for markets? i'm not sure energy stocks are supposed to rally that hard if you think oil is finding a base here. i think you could own a lot of these companies. the price action, no matter what you want to save for a month, has been finding the 50-day moving average, using it as a base with bad news trading now negative and finishing the day higher. the things that are encouraging, small caps continue to outperform after a year of underperformance. financials, yeah, they rallied back. in fact, i do believe there is this credit read-through. when i say it disappears, dan says nothing fundamental exists, and i don't agree with that. markets are not going to run away from here on the upside. it's great to see sanity back and people choosing to pick companies and banks not going out of business, they just may

be worse less on an earnings basis. >> i think the technical setup is really important. i think you had the move from 1800, 1950, closed above there. this is in the s&p. i think it's important to separate the forest for the trees a little bit. we have the poor services data in the u.s. we had really poor -- the first contraction in 21 months in the u.s., poor business confidence in germany. you know, earlier in the week here. we know the data in emerging markets is not great. to me, i think if you're buying stocks at 1950, because you're playing for the move back to the high, i'm not certain that's going to happen. i think the data will continue to get worse over the next few months, rather than better. it's just sloping that way right now. if you're buying stocks at 1950 and you were afraid at 1800, it doesn't make a lot of sense right now. >> let's get to the question, what can you own in this sort of market? >> well, a place that's really worked this year is retail, for a few reasons. one, it didn't work last year at all, so the expectations were

really low coming in. specifically look at a name like macy's, they announced the terrible year behind them. and yet, it's still very attractive here. i think you have -- you don't have any of the china risk, you don't have any of the commodity risk. you do have the customer being a beneficiary of lower oil. i think the dollar move is behind them now. they won't -- it won't have as big an effect. you have the potential catalyst which i dismissed as unlikely a little while ago, i think when they brought in east dill as the adviser, i think it put it on the front burner. they po tengly have some very valuable properties. that's a name that i think is really out of the fray of this market, and european banks and all that. >> what's your take on macy's? >> ever since that day that they gave guidance, stocks traded down to 34, re verlsed the next day, i think you can still own it. we talked about the reason the catalyst was, the weather was

getting colder. people scoffed at that. terry lundgren two days ago said the weather got colder. one of the stocks i think you can own as well is coca-cola. tim talks about this name as well. 44, 44 1/2. had been a double top. it's right there again. i don't think they're triple tops. >> the ultimate emerging of the trades are the markets. check out mexico. eww, to me, brazil, by the way, folks, up on the year. if you think the dollar has peaked, i do, you're in a place where emerging markets have a respite, if nothing else, and there's a trade here. and again, i've said trade in the eem between 29 and 31. if you want to fundamentally own a couple of countries where you're not buying a company, and you don't have the credit risk, mexico is a very interesting place. i would own that here. >> this may sound a little weird, but you saw sales for

force.com down today. they lowered their 2017 guidance. they put up a 25% revenue year over year. you don't buy it because of valuation, there's a strong secular shift here. the company's executing very well. if you remember back to last april when they were on the block as a potential takeover candidate, when we get oracle's results next month and they stink, people may start talking about sales force. >> you like this? >> you buy a stock that -- >> well, what i'm saying is, from a purely momentum, here's a company that's executing. they lowered their low end of their guidance for the full year here. the onus is on them. if you can get the stock at 65, over the next few weeks, if it settles in here, it's probably a de sent do. >> take a look at this. despite the volatility in the market, there are still more overbought stocks than oversold stocks in the s&p 500. does that mean that things aren't as bad as they may seem,

or could it signal another sell-off around the corner? paul joins us now. decipher the chart for us. >> the chart looks a little messy there. but what we're doing is from the morning lineup report every day. we highlight the number of stocks in the s&p 500 that are trading at overbought versus oversold levels. when the market's rallying, you want to see the number of overbought stocks expanding. what we're seeing is the percentage of overbought stocks is up to now after today's rally 33%. just earlier last week, we had more overbought than oversold stocks. that was the first time this year. and what we did is we saw higher high in that blue line in the chart there. and we've been making a string of lower highs since last october. the fact that we were able to expand that is a good sign. as i was saying last week, the rally that we had seen off the mid-february lows was a nice rally. the market had to prove itself.

we needed to see internal strength. this is one indication of the internals starting to confirm the move in stocks we've seen. it's an encouraging sign. >> good news for the bulls. >> yeah. can you explain to me what overbought means? in your vernacular. what's the difference between your overbought and overowned? >> this is just overbought. what we're doing is looking at the price range of the stock. when a stock is trading more than one standard deviation above its 50-day moving average, it's considered overbought. and conversely, when it's below one standard deviation below the 50-day moving average, it's oversold. you're looking at stocks that are trading outside of their recent range. and sort of moving out of -- to the upside or downside. when you do see the market expanding, or rallying in one direction higher, you want to see the number of overbought stocks following suit and confirming that, which we're seeing now. >> would we be going too far if

we said this is a buy signal? what is a takeaway that viewers should have from this chart? >> this is just one -- another internal that's been confirming the move that we've seen. you know, we saw the higher high in the s&p 500 today. we saw the break of the longest streak below the 50-day moving average than 2011. so these are all positive sort of confirmations of the recent move. if we can hold this rally that we saw today to big bounces, off of earlier weakness, two days in a row, china was down 6% yesterday, we still saw the market rally in the face of that, you know, that -- we can hold that to the end of the week, that's a sign that in the short term here, investors should -- can be a little more open and it's hard to fight the rally from here. >> paul, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> is this convincing, guys? >> it's somewhat convincing. i think we're all saying the same thing differently. it comes down for me the s&p. why was 1950 important? a lot of people talked about it. the november high was basically

2,100, traded to 1810. i think a couple thursdays ago. this is a 50% correction of that move. it feels as though now the bulls will prove themselves. dan has said a number of times, the s&p going back to 2000, i feel like it will. >> i'm saying something a little different than all of you guys. i think there's a lot of noise that's going to happen. it comes back to, i think we're going to get focused on it in the next few weeks, is central bank policy, and negative interest rates. we haven't mentioned what's going on in the yield in the ten-year. it's going lower here. this is not a good sign for risk assets in my opinion. i'll just say that until i'm blue in the face. if you're a trader, trade between 1820 and 2050. the likelihood of new highs in the s&p is not happening. i don't mean to sound so glib about it, i just don't see the ingredients there for that to happen. >> but again, you're saying this is a range, and you're saying at least at this point this is a trading range. i agree with that. to say all of this stuff in the ten-year, even if it goes to

1050, and if goes back to those levels in a negative environment globally, that doesn't surprise me at all. to me, looking at stocks individually and saying we're at a place where stocks have proven that good companies in this environment, there's a lot of companies that are never more profitable than in this environment. this is something that i think has gotten lost in the last month and a half. >> in this environment, which is talking about, look what we're talking about, tim. look at the easy monetary policy. >> wait, wait, when you said if you want to trade between the range, go have a ball. the range is enough to make some money. >> that's a lot of money. >> hold on. i'm saying most of the people out there don't hatch the skill set, they don't have the information from trading in that range. they're going to be doing what they should be doing, buying at 2,000 and selling at 1,825. that's what i'm trying to say. if you have a long-term time horizon, and you can find value, then you can dollar cost average into things. but i think a lot of people get turned around in markets like

this, especially with the back drop of what's going on globally, economically. >> are you saying get out of the way? because it sounds to me like you're saying don't overtrade this. i agree with that. but you've said for a long time, i actually think things are going significantly lower. >> i do. i think that if you get overtrade and stuck in a lot of stuff that you don't want to own in a global economy that is not improving, and you think that this noise above 1950 one day, at 1951 is the all-clear sign, that's the wrong message. >> i do really think the point about, this is a market of stocks, not a stock market kind of thing, is really an important point. to sort of put every stock in a basket of, hey, this is a dangerous game, and you're going to blow it, sell at the bottom and buy at the top, i think there are a lot of -- >> but karen, you can talk about a market much stocks. global risk assets trade together when things get hairy. they were trading together two weeks ago. if we go back to where we were two weeks ago, we have the

potential to go much, much lower very quickly. all of those stocks that you felt comfortable buying at 1950 are going to go much lower. that's what i'm saying. unless you're in it for a long haul, you're going to get turned around. >> one of the things we try to do is help people who maybe are not armed to navigate markets that way. try to help them with the ranges we're talking about. it's not for everybody clearly, i agree. to a certain extent we've done a decent job in talking about the ranges and talking about how to trade within those ranges. >> there have been a number of companies that have moved 15, 20, 25% in the last three weeks that are great companies. if your head was in the sand saying i've got to get out of this market -- by the way, you're right, too, they could go back down there. but if you know what you own, you should not be putting your head in the sand here. up next, after responding to the fbi in the last hour ahead of tomorrow's deadline, apple's stock is barely budging. what could it mean for investors? please, st. louis fed president bullard said the economy is far from a recession.

but they're missing a very big point. later, it's the shocking report that has all of wall street talking. the analysts that said viacom's best chance of survival is to blow itself up and go private. we will speak to him when "fast money" returns. know your financial plan

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welcome back to "fast money." america's favorite controversy as apple fires back with a motion to deny the government's request to access a terrorist's phone. we have the latest on this developing story. josh? >> well, me lisa, this is not a case about just one iphone. that is apple's argument is it asked a court to throw out an order forcing the company to help the fbi access a terrorist's iphone. apple arguing in this filing, no court has ever authorized what the government now seeks. no law supports such unlimited and sweeping use of the judicial process. and the constitution forbids it. apple had said it would fight this order for two broad reasons. one, the new software that it

would have to write could be stolen by hackers and criminals and put millions of iphones at risk. if the government can force apple to write the software, what can stop the government from forcing apple or other tech companies from intersenting messages or tracking locations of users. in other words, bad precedence. apple is finding big allies in this fight. microsoft said it will file a motion to support apple and facebook also confirms it is participating. tomorrow, remember, apple hosts its shareholder meeting in cupertino. you can expect tim cook to get plenty of questions about this case. we will be there. so stay tuned. melissa, back to you. >> thanks so much, josh lipton. sort of on a dual front. fought in the courts, but also being fought in the court of public opinion, in that congress has asked the fbi director to come back on march 1st, along with the general counsel of apple. the question here is apple's in the headlines every day. it's under attack. why isn't the stock moving, do

you think? you would think there would be something. >> there's a lot of emotions. on both sides. i think for apple, the best scenario is the court orders them to do it and they comply. they can say, we tried to stand up for what we thought was right, but we recognize the court's jurisdiction and we'll help. that's the best case scenario. i think the longer this drags on for apple, that's probably bad. i don't think there are that many people who won't buy an iphone because of this. >> i agree with almost everything you said. i do think that the best case scenario, that the court orders them to do it, they comply. but it feels like they're digging their heels in on this one. i don't think they will. i think they'll get -- people are getting emotional about this. because -- >> including me. >> it was just fine. politicians are now getting onboard. i've seen a number of people interviewed about it. they will say, boycott apple products. whether people do it or not, i don't know. but that is clearly out there. >> first of all, it's great the

courts will decide this because it should be in the courts. the absurdity to me is apple saying we don't have the solution, and it could be dangerous that people will get this. are you telling me they can't create a solution in a closed box and destroy it? i get the precedent for privacy for the consumer. i think it's grandstanding. and i don't think it works. >> remember, though, this is their response. they have to make the strongest argument that they possibly can here. >> right. >> so they're going to be appearing to be digging their heels in. they have to. >> right. >> i just have one point. think about it, how much time and energy senior management at apple is spending on this. it's a massive distraction when the company's growth has hit a wall. we know that they have this march -- >> in a week here. >> tim cook is going to be on the hill next week. i'm not telling you that this is

going to hit their sales or anything like that. but this company needs to show their customers not only that they care about their privacy, but they're still innovating. >> i don't think it stops here. >> regardless of this whatever, you know, this, and the amalgam of factors, is apple -- >> the stock's been underperforming since may. what i find interesting, tim is the dude. >> the dude. >> that's fine. >> i have one question. you're in this value crowd. has he come out saying why he sold 7 million shares of this stock? is that going around? is there a whisper? >> he's made quite a bit of money on it. it's moved substantially from where he bought it. >> understood. the size of his position, it looked like he was in it to win it for a very long time. i'm curious, great to hear what he has to say on that. >> i'll bet he's had a lot of other things that haven't worked in the last year.

>> as an atm he's using apple stock. >> everything else is going down. >> just call it. >> he has sarcasm every day. up next, pizza, burgers, switching gears, one group of stocks sizzling in 2016 when the other is getting flat-out burned. who is winning the hearts and mouths of consumers. i'm melissa lee, and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> the man who called the dollar rally is sounding the alarm on the federal reserve. find out what has the global macro investor saying the fed is paralyzed by the market. and how it could mean big trouble for stocks. plus, it's the one media stock that's in the midst of a death spiral. and the analyst who said it's

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on herballife. >> beating on both the top and bottom line. the annual release said it is in discussions with the ftc to resolve a probe related to concerns whether it complied with federal law in advertising, marketing and sales of business opportunities. keep in mind, there are several other investigations by other groups that are ongoing. as for guidance, the company cut its profit projections for this year blaming the strong dollar for weak sales revenue. volumes rose, especially in

china. herbalife shares are down, but have climbed more than 35% in the last 12 months. melissa? >> seema, thank you. this is a battleground stock. >> it is a battleground stock. i think that's part of what makes it somewhat unininvestigatable. you have a big short interest. a cheap valuation if you believe in the fundamentals of the company. i feel it's too dangerous to be in the middle of that battleground. >> domino's posting strong quarterly results raising its dividends by 23%. patrick doyle is sitting down with jim cramer to talk about it. >> i think what you're seeing in the industry is a few players who are really separating. the difference between the concepts that have been really nailing it, and those that aren't, has been broader than i think you have typically seen.

pizza has always been a favorite for people. the category continues to grow a bit. and, you know, hopefully we're going to take a little share from other folks. >> domino's, thinking about another group of food stocks, the burger place that we looked at how the major pizza stocks are matching up against the burger stocks. looks like folks enjoy their pies over their double cheeseburgers. look at those stats there. guy? >> i definitely -- i haven't had a good burger in -- >> pie over burger? >> absolutely. first of all, kudos to 386. that's steve grasso. he has been on this domino's thing for a long time. valuation would suggest he should have been wrong, and he's not. 33 times forward earnings. i think it made an all-time high today. i questions you've got to stay with it. steve would say likewise.

tim has been on mcdonald's. i think you could stay there. what i will say is the jack in the box was just ridiculous. it did hold 60. i didn't think it would get that low. it's bounced since. i think for some beta, though, jack will get you done. >> i stay at mcdonald's. i think domino's had a very good run. i see this thing trading around 43, 44 times. the growth is fantastic. they're hitting on all sal dars, including international. i would far prefer a burger chain at 20 to 24 times with guys that are also growing internationally. >> we haven't even mentioned a shake shack. you haven't had one, have you? >> just today. >> that's crazy. >> i've had one once a week since they introduced it. >> a chicken shake? >> good thing for shaikh. tune in to "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. you want to see that. st. louis fed president james bullard said the economy is far from a recession, but the

man who predicted the surge in the dollar said the fed is missing a very key point. he will tell you what that is, and why investors should be so worried. plus, big after-hours action. gas falling. weight watchers is tanking. kraft heinz, that's harallying. . imagine if the things you bought every day... ...earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. with the united mileageplus explorer card, you'll get a free checked bag, two united club passes, priority boarding, and 30,000 bonus miles. everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. the united mileageplus explorer card. imagine where it will take you.

you nailed it. >> a very small bottle of water you have there.

welcome back to "fast money." here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. media stocks have been under pressure, but there's one name in particular that could be in a death spiral. plus, we've got full coverage of all the big earnings in the after-hours session. gap, weight watchers, kraft. we'll get the latest reports next. citigroup coming out with a note saying the risk of a global recession is rising. james bullard addressed this call with cnbc's steve liesman this morning. >> no, i don't think the probabilities are particularly high right now. of course, you always face risk.

and we are at a lower trend growth rate. so you could always argue that there might be a higher probability of a recession because your trend growth rate is now lower than it was historically in the u.s. >> is the fed discounting the possibility of a recession? are they calling this wrong? the publisher of the investor, joins us on the fastline. always great to speak to you. >> great to speak to you. >> mr. bullard seemed pretty confident in what he was saying. yet you saw the interview, and you think the fed is paralyzed. why? >> exactly. a, he has to say this. because his job is not to drive fear into the market. but also, if they raise rates, the dollar goes higher. it creates a problem for them. if they don't do anything, it's a sign that the economy is weak. and that leads to sell-offs. they're really boxed into a corner. it will take a while to play out but i think that's how it will play out. >> what are your odds of the

u.s. adopting negative rates? >> i think it's high indeed. my call has been for a recession for some time now for 2016. this quarter looks like it's a little firmer than before. but the gdp makes it a little bit difficult to know. the chances of the negative rates in the u.s. are relatively high. banks have started preparing for it. definitely a possibility. >> walk us through what the implications of that is. you do say you're drawing attention to the fact that a lot of people are comparing this period in the stock market to 1998. it actually sounds like you think it could be worse than 1998, because growth today is slower. >> yeah. i think it actually is a combination between 1998 and 2008. which is a bit of a messy combo. we have problems with the emerging market, problems with the u.s. economy, problems with the global economy. as i mentioned before, i think germany looks like it will head to a recession. it's a complicated situation playing out.

it's probably on pause for a short period of time. when people ease up, that's when things start happening again. i think we're in a period of calm, but i'm very concerned things are going to get much worse from here over time. >> that calm has also included a number of european banks coming out with numbers, lloyds today now ready to pay a tiff dend because they're well over the tier one level. how do you reconcile some of these banks that people think are problem banks have numbers where their tier one capital is better? oil is better. which means the credit concerns are better. talk about that. >> yeah, i mean, again, it's difficult to talk about oil when we're still below $30. all the energy firms are compounding losses at these levels. so that risk is still there. now, the earnings numbers, if you are a bank, the thing you will try and do when you're in the most stress, try to make

sure you report the best earnings possible. it's a confidence game. the feds are a confidence game, and the banks are a confidence game. they're trying to reassure people there's nothing to see here. when the banks come out and say there's nothing to see here, it usually relates to something to see here. >> the fed being able to go to negative interest rates, a, can they do it, and b, how do they push it through? my sense is it's got to be huge headwinds coming back from some of the constituents in politics, no? >> it depends how they do it. there are mechanisms you can have negative interest rates for part of the economy and not for others. we don't really know. the one thing we do know is they can change the rules, and they do. all i know is, they want to move towards this, and they're talking about the ban on cash. they're talking about negative rates. they want to penalize some people to get them back in the economy. there are others they clearly

don't want to. but they will change the rules to make it happen. >> we have very little time left, but i want to get your take on the three key trades, if you will. you're short on deutsche bank, where oil goes next, and the direction overall of the u.s. stock market. >> okay. unfortunately usually i have some punchy calls, but my view is over the next few months, things trade sideways for a while. the equity market drifts higher. not much happens. and then as the data stops weakening again into the summer, things start moving again. i think the major direction for everything is bond yields lower, commodities lower, the dollar higher. at this time, that's not going to happen for a while. >> so tactically have you moved out of shorts and you're sort of waiting? >> no, because the shorts have been at a much better level. my time horizon is particularly long. i don't worry about that. the last time i came on the show, i said, look, i think the u.s. stock market is going to

bounce. i'm still waiting to short the bounce. i've been in the wait-and-see mode. >> you're still short on deutsche bank? >> yes, correct. and credit suisse and all of that. >> raoul, appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> >> he's got a great view of macro. but what's really interesting to me is just another person who's saying, you know what, maybe it's not so bad. and maybe things are going sideways for a while. >> i don't think he said that, though. >> he just did. >> he said there's less pressure on the push points. >> longer term, he's still negative. right? >> i'm not coming at this guy. i'm just telling you that for a lot of people who thought the sky was falling, and i'm not saying he was, but suddenly it's amazing how benign this market appears to a lot of people that

yesterday did. >> i think the fed can take some cover in saying, we're seeing moderate growth in the u.s. but given the central banks around the world's strategies, we're going to stay pat right now. i think they can credibly do that. >> i think they can just step back and see. >> rates are not backing off. tlt should have sold off hard on a day like today, and they did not. i think it was the fifth lowest yield in german ten-years in history today. u.s. rates are headed down. >> that's just my point. i'm not a macro guy like tim or raoul. but when i see the about-face that the fed is doing on monetary policy, i just don't see it as a good place to be investing in risk assets. the u.s. equities are the best performing on a relative basis the last five years. i think it comes undone for a point in 2016. >> can oprah winfrey save weight watchers? we'll tell you why oprah may not

be enough for the weight loss stock. oil stocks just hit a bottom. we'll tell you the name and why the pain might be over right after this break.

welcome back to "fast

money." we've got lots of after-hours movers. it's time for our earnings with courtney, and seema on weight watchers. we start with courtney and the gap. >> another disappointing report for gap. 2016 guidance sending shares lower after-hours. wall street waste entirely surprised with the rest of the fort quarter results. gap, one of the few companies reporting monthly sales. comps down 7%. earnings in line, revenue slightly light. the retailer seems happy to put 2015 in the rear-view mirror. while looking forward to the spring and summer collections. this quarter marks art peck's one-year anniversary as ceo. and nearly five months without a permanent head of old navy. on the conference call, he said he's taking his time with the decision for that job. >> when you have a seat like that empty, one of the biggest seats in the business, i want to

take my time to make sure that i understand looking forward what's the right profile of leadership for that seat. and to understand our talent inside and outside the company in a way that i can make a decision that i feel is the best decision for the brand and the company. >> now, old navy had been the star brand for years in terms of sales growth. now representing 40% of total company sales. but its comparable sales have declined for three straight months, after years of growth, with traffic falling off significantly in november and december. the company said it did pick up in that clearance month of january. we'll see what happens from here. seema, let's send it over to you. >> not a great report from weight watchers. the company reporting an earnings loss due to a drop in subscriptions and currency head winds. they said the partnership with oprah is off to a strong start. and i quote, our transformation momentum is building. >> support of the new program

launch, our winter season advertising campaign kicked off with oprah telling the world in her words, why she joined weight watchers and inviting others to join her on her journey. this direct and emotional appeal resonated strongly with members and nonmembers alike. and grabbed significant media attention. >> take a look at price action. since oprah announced her partnership with weight watchers in october, the stock has more than doubled. but now falling. which means oprah has lost $24 million based on this price action, in extended trade. but the media mogul is still holding on to a gain of nearly $75 million since she invested in the company back in october, melissa. >> thank you, seema. we're very relieved for oprah's finances. all of us were very worried about her. these are stocks that you have interest in? >> i do have interest in gap. it's a little disappointing. the stock was down 3% or so.

they've had a rough run for sure. the valuation is really not expensive. the balance sheet's in good shape. i know sitron put a piece out in that i didn't find was that compelling. gap he just sees as becoming irrelevant. that's much of a catalyst for a short. i don't know, sort of a no-touch. weight watchers, i think the oprah deal is one of the greatest deals i've seen in quite some time. >> for her. >> for her it's fantastic. just the -- i mean, for her, buying stock. and think about it, this is a company that's been leveraged. the debt has traded up and stayed up since oprah's been there, even with the stock coming in. i looked at the debt first. i'm compelled. i don't own it, but this is an interesting story. >> such a broken company. just because she makes an emotional appeal, suddenly they'll pile onto the health game? >> i see her audience as being

spot-on for the weight watchers. they want to -- >> guy? >> guy loves oprah, no doubt about it. >> he wants to lose weight. >> she has an enormous following. >> he's a large man. in his own way. >> that's hurtful. i have feelings, too. i know it's hard to believe. >> i said you want to lose weight, i didn't say you had to lose. >> we love you as you are. >> as i am. all of me. you know, it's interesting, citron called gap irrelevant. not a reason to sell it. to your point, their stuff has been spot-on. operating margins went from 11% last year down to 8%. that's not good. in terms of the weight watchers thing, she better hope she keeps whatever weight she loses off, because god forbid it returns and that is, in my opinion, catastrophic. >> a dangerous place.

>> i'm going to -- this is how much we love you, guy. on to another big oil mover. of course, oil rose in today's session. that had one trader that say we may have witnessed the bottom in one particular stock. >> i'm going to tie this in to weight watchers, because of fat premiums. marathon oil today, the stock was trading about $714. three times average daily volume. most of that was in puts. when the stock was 714, seller of 55,000 of the april 5 puts receiving 28 cents. that's about $1.5 million in premiums. if the stock is above $5, that is 30% lower than current levels on april exploration, that trade would receive the $1.5 million credit. this is a ten-year chart. look at this. 85% draw down from the 2014 highs. it's really right near the lows. one of the reasons this trader

is probably looking to sell out of the money puts, this is the price of options, very elevated, they could probably have a long way to go if oil starts to settle. lastly, look at this, marathon. that is one "m" right there. the 20-year chart. near all-time lows. if you think this balance sheet is okay, it's probably good down here. this is one way to do it. place a bid below the market and get paid to do it. >> check out the show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. viacom under major pressure. one investor saying the media giant should throw in the towel. he's here to make his case right after this. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series.

okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.

♪ no, you're not ♪ yogonna watch it! ♪tch it! ♪

♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. shares of viacom dropping more than 47% in the last year. now one leading wall street analyst is suggesting the company is in a death spiral. todd younger joins us here on set. why death spiral? don't you have any confidence in the ceo? >> less about the ceo than it is about the businesses themselves. i'm not sure i ever wrote death spiral -- what i did write is i compared viacom to eastman

kodak. the reason i made that comparison and stand by that comparison, think about what viacom's main business is, the vast majority of their cash flow and valley comes from conventional television networks aimed at young people. to me, i think the analogy fits that trying to get a young person to watch television that way is kind of like trying to sell 35 millimeter film to somebody using a digital camera. your customer doesn't want that product anymore. they're using something else. they're still taking pictures. people are still making money. but it's not the guy who used to sell film. so the question now is, how did it get in this way, but even what can they do? the death spiral, i'm not sure there's anything that can be done at this point to save, or bring back, restore the core businesses that still generate the cash flow of the company. you can't get your kid to put down their ipad and go watch the set. >> does it have to go private?

>> so some thinking i was doing recently, because it's easier to -- it feels wrong to take pot shots at a company, which i'm not doing, i'm just trying to express a view on the value of the equity, which i think is overvalued. if i'm going to be critical, maybe i should think about, okay, smart guy, what do you think they should do? probably -- >> i could say that. >> it comes back to the eastman kodak thing. i think it's too late to save the business. i don't think you can get the kids to go back to watching tv. maybe you should sell the company. i don't think there are any buyers for most of the parts of viacom's company as they exist. so the best solution i could come up with, which isn't a great salvation, based on the numbers, but it's the best thing i could come up with, there are pieces of the company that people would still want to buy. >> okay. >> maybe you sell those.

take care of some of your bond holders. there's a lot of debt on this company. what you've got left is the core businesses. what you probably should do is take them private, where you can make big, drastic changes out of the public scrutiny, out of the quarterly earnings pressures, try and reinvent something from your brand. >> todd, unfortunately we're out of time. but $30 price target, underweight rating on viacom. todd younger from bernstein. the final trade coming up next. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits.

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final for the final trade. tim in. >> starting to look back in mccow. starting to stabilize. stocks on the move. take a look at this one. >> xlp breaking out. >> karen? >> north star had a good earnings release today. but more important, what else they're doing. i like it better here, higher than where it was yesterday. >> guy? >> coca-cola breaking out. much more important than that. you know what today is. >> what day is today? >> happy birthday! >> yeah!

>> look at that. >> that's a great looking log. i'm melissa lee, see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" begins right now.