>> jobs number matters a lot on friday. >> it's really -- it's a weird thing. i think hey lot depends on the bond market, really. i think it all does kind of in a weird way. >> super tuesday, got that coming up, too. that does it for "closing bell." thanks so much for joining me here this afternoon to close out the week. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are steve grasso, david sieberg, dan nathan and guy adami. will opec freeze production? the answer to that question from an exclusive and rare interview with the top opec mill minister who tells us production cuts are coming, and you will not believe how high he sees oil going by the end of this year. plus, the s&p officially breaking through the 1950 level, but is the rally about to come to a screeching halt? we've got the key levels to watch, and later the uncertainty around the apple shareholder meeting is setting up for what one trader is calling a win-win situation for investors. we will explain, but, first, we start off with the markets.

stocks may have ended the day flat, but here's what was really interesting today. banks rallied, gold fell, bonds fell, yields rose, so are we out of the woods and are the bulls back in charge? guy? >> i don't know if we're out of the woods, but the bulls are back in charge. great week for the bulls. today nothing special. the fact that we gave up the gains, not a big deal, but what's been interesting the transports which led us down from november of 2014 are similarly leading us out now. they bottomed out on january 20. you can see where things are right now. that's a good sign. bobbed markets selling off, good sign, so there's a lot of constructive things going on. i think it still needs to prove itself right here. hasn't done it yet, but, you know what? the pulls have it back, i think. >> you know what's not constructive. >> go ahead. >> as the s&p has rallied and so has the dollar rallied and a couple weeks ago people were saying the dollar rally is done and look at the dixie now. rallied about 3% over the last couple of weeks, and that's a big problem. you saw it in consumer staples. that was the one thing that

stuck out to me like a sore thumb, so, you know, we'll talk about oil later. if oil goes up for the wrong reason and the dollar continues to go, some of the stuff is contrarian and if they do have the cuts i don't like the setup. >> moving consumer staples part of the great risk-on move so that we're starting to see brewing. in addition to consumer staples we had utilities down sharply today. >> the risk-on move is the important topic here, and i think importantly there's a lot of big meetings coming up and the bias is really to the long side and positioning is not structured that way. people are underweight equities right now with a longer bias so you see these traders come in and start to buy these names, getting ahead of some potential positive data. draghi said at the march 10th meeting we're going to see some stimulus so people are getting ahead of that trade. they afraid to be short so you're seeing a lot of short covering in sectors that have been risk-on trades to look for a downside but it's all about positioning. >> to your point, a lot of risk-on events that could be

taking place that are taking place. g-20 this weekend. then you have a china national congress. >> yeah. >> next month, so people when you say positioning, covering shorts, not particularly getting along. what ran, materials, energy, all these risky names that people had shorts in they covered. >> yeah, but -- >> what ran today though financials were late, and that's why i think this market should be sold. >> from a fundamental perspective investors are cautious. >> let me tell you what i saw this week as far as economic data here in the u.s. you saw the inflation data, that's good news, right. saw wage inflation last month and now we see this price inflation had a little bit. that makes the fed's job that much harder, i think. when you think about all the volatility that's been caused in the markets over the last couple of months, it has been become of the fed rate increase back in december and then the uncertainty. >> how does it make their job harder though? >> because if they don't give a good message, especially when we saw that bad number from the services number this week, too. >> there's no way they can

raise. you and i probably agree on this and tell me if i'm wrong, no way they with raise. they are going to invert the "u-curve sooner than ever and they will be wearing the recision right now. whatever they do, they cannot raise rates, period. >> if it's inevitable we're going into a recession the markets will go lower. >> the markets are going to go lower. >> and we've seen it in anticipation? >> no, no. the markets will go lower, and i think that it depends on how forward looking the market, is but i think the market can't even see what's going out. usually six to eight months ahead but i do believe global growth or lack thereof is telling us something so i think the market will sell off. >> look, we can all pontificate whether or not there's going to be a move in rate, not a move in rates. bottom line from the short-term positioning, and we talk about it all the time, consumer staples, look at the discretionary names, got crushed, especially consumer names. got crushed so much and purged all the inventories and took

guidance down aggressively and people felt safe and you saw that risk on in that sector. >> central banks will absolutely take more missteps. without question that's going to happen, but i don't think going to happen now for a while, and in the meantime, listen, i'm sort of in dan's camp, been in dan's camp, but i also understand that the markets can go up for a lot longer than people think. >> right. >> dan would agree with that as well. when i say higher than this, we hold 1950 which we seemingly are doing now in the s&p and sets us up to a move towards 20, 25 and then you re-evaluate. does it mean i'm bullish in the shorts? yeah. does it mean i agree with dan is saying in the aggregate? absolutely, yes. >> speaking of the key 1950 level, is it time to hit the sell button and steve grasso is making his way and trying to stay alive. >> guy just spoke about the 1950 level so why don't we look at it in a bigger spectrum right here. so this is the -- your recent high right here. if you draw your lines all the way down, okay, to your recent low of 1810 you come back and

everyone knows i like following the fibernace retracement highs and look from the low to the high and come up with a 50% and a 618 retracement. 1964 is your exact level so close enough, 1950, but this is the level the market needs to hold. we touched it today. couldn't hold it, couldn't break through. so what i said, the late-term things are buying financials now because now that sucks the retail population into buying stocks thinking it's all clear. it's the worst time to buy right now. the maximum we can rally is to 2,000. this is your sell zone. 1964, up to 2,000. not your buy zone. be lightning up on positions right here. >> basically the risk/reward to the upside is celil at 1950. >> correct. >> the same way when it sells off you want to be buying a bounce at the 50 and the 618,

reverse it. right now you want to be selling and this is where it suction the most amount of people and the market sets up to hurt the moment amount of people at any point in time. >> when you say you're bullish, and you can go market, does that mean it's a good time to buy because these two can co-exist actual. >> i if you're a trade an looking at things the way i look at i'm looking at it from the standpoint of underpositioned traders that want to look for a move higher given possible data over the next few weeks. >> okay. >> i think 2000, we get to 2000, we'll glide through, and that is a sell signal, i agree, for most people. >> i think the technicals and the s&p 500 look horrible, and when you think about it, we made the high last may and had a bout of volatility and had this "w." bott tomorrow from august and search the and never made a new high. still in a downtrend and then had this recent "w" bottom and one in january and one in february.

and when we go down below there's an air pocket. if we test that level for a third time, that would be at a two-year lee and i think you probably have a move back towards 1600 in a very quick manner, and you can talk about positioning and this and ma and people will panic on the third time down that. just that simple. >> when i asked the question are the bulls back in charge and you said yes, guy. what do you do? >> the banks, not that they should rally, but the banks will rally because people will say here's a group that got beat up and will play catchup in that space. i think there's a chance to fade the banks. i come down where dan comes down. we just look at the world a little bit differently. i think the next 75 points or so is to the upside and there's no denying that the bounce off 1810 in the s&p was remarkable, and this week the bounce off of 1890 was equally outstanding. >> up next, a rare and exclusive interview with the top opec oil minister. you will not believe how high he sees oil going by the end of

this year. plus, in honor of the oscars we are giving you four oscar worthy stock picks that will have your portfolio thanking your mom, your agent, your high school drama teacher, everyone else you ever met in your life. and later one classic market theory is pointing to more pain ahead. what that is and how much you can protect yourself. much more "fast money" after this. with gloom and doom gripping the word "fast" goes in search of the wall street most bullish voices in hopes of slaying the bear and hopes of finding you the winning trade. that's all next woke on "fast money."

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. welcome back to "fast money." oil continues to drive stocks. earlier today in a rare and exclusive interview i spoke with former opec president who now serves as nigeria's oil minister. i began by asking him if he believes in opec production freeze and can in fact be achieved. here's what he said. >> when attempts at production freeze we're working the issue, the minister for energy in qatar who took it from me is leading that pack. there's a lot of conversation going, and i think there's a lot of consensus on the issue of

freeze in saudi arabia and russia and what is now time to get everybody aligned on the freeze and chances are very high. >> where do you spend and see oil going by the end of the year? >> i'm certainly hoping for prices in the range of 45, 50, that's what i'm putting my fingers on. is there a scientific basis for that, probably not. there's a lot of optimism and i'm hoping consensus can be built and not just opec members but not opec members which is what the gulf states and most of us have pushed for. >> minister of nigeria must be under tremendous pressure to try to do what it can in its power to raise the price of oil and nigeria relies on oil for more than 90% of its foreign exchange earnings and it's considering the world bank to help plug a hole in this year's budget. i'm wondering if you feel frustration with being a member of opec. in fact, a former oil minister has questioned why nigeria will continue membership with opec. he said and he's quoted as

saying nigeria with zero excess capacity is a mere onlooker at the mercy of the two biggest oil producers in the world, the united states as well as saudi arabia. how do you feel about being a member of opec when it's really the bigger oil producer, saudi arabia, seemingly calling all the shots? >> the membership should rate rights now are noting negotiable. if you leave opec we're not the big swing producers and you've got to be a member of of a team. historically it's done well for us. i think everybody means well, but from the point of view of nigeria's interests, yes, low price of oil is not good for us. we need to do -- we're looking to have a reasonable moderate prices in oil in order to be able to fund our budgets and have a very versatile development for the nigerian

citizens. low oil hurts us and we need to look at development and discipline and cost and costs on very tight monetary policies and management of what is available. >> okay. so we had a lot of rhetoric this week from the conference in houston, and so we heard a saudi minister naimi saying essenti essentially he'll let oil go down to 20 and iran in the past has said an oil freeze is a joke and he said i just came with a visit with the saudis and they are at forefront of pushing this freeze forward. >> freeze doesn't help. production cuts have to be there. >> isn't that a -- he says a freeze is a first step to a cut. >> first of all, whatever they say they are not going to do. it helps him. of course it helps him, the ultimate of talking your own book. higher oil helps him, but the problem is it won't move higher because you have too much of a glut on the market. iran will not stop pumping. iran's the problem.

it's not him. >> yeah. >> it's not the other members. it's iran that's just getting back online that needs to take market share back. they are the problem. >> total lip service. no way there's going to be a freeze or any coordination whatsoever so you're telling me saudi arabia will pump 10,000 barrels a day -- 10 million barrels a day and you'll have iran limited to 500,000 barrels a day? it's insane to think that they are going to be limited. they are not and they will keep pumping, and that will completely drive this i think oil to 20 bucks. >> we talk about geopolitical risk and associate that with prices of things going higher. i would submit the reason oil is going lower until recently is because of geopolitical risk. if the saudis wanted the price higher i'm telling you it would be higher. they don't want it higher. they want it lower than it is now because it hurts their enemies, and if it hurts us in the meantime that's just an ancillary benefit. >> or they think it's not going higher and they would rather just reap these benefits of these prices because they think it's going to $15. >> could be. >> and that's more the case. >> they can withstand a lower

price longer than anybody out there. they lose the battle and win the war. >> meantime, is there anything investable in energy? >> sure. a lot of people have been calling the bottom the whole way down and to me it goes back to what we said in the last block. new see the dollar coming back up, oil is going back down but the bigger implication is you have countries like russia and brazil that are basically bankrupt and the longer this goes on, talk in 2016 about freeze or cut and nothing happens, oil is going to go lower and the dollar is going higher and especially if the fed is off -- >> you know, what about all the trades that exist around it that are positioning to get long, like the banks and financials. >> haven't seen any big defaults and bruptsies and nobody is dipping their toe in the water yet until we see that. go talk to bankers and go talk to lawyers. it's happening in the background. >> the worst is yet to come. >> definitely is. you've got like you said the m & a can't take place right now. >> that doesn't mean oil stocks have already gone 50% can't go

higher. >> you have to anticipate, bay xle or exxon mobil or get a yield out of it. >> buy now. >> dip a toe in, don't buy a full position in anything right now but if you're going to buy you have to go with a big name like that already up on the year. >> who says dipping a toe is a good idea? do you? >> no. >> not from the short side. >> exxon mobil at $81 is 22 times forward earnings, an expensive stock in this environment. the answer is no. still ahead the showdown with the government has created a very unique situation at apple and can hold the key to a win-win trade. we'll explain. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here what else is coming up on "fast." >> want to see something else scary. >> check out the so-called safety stocks because they are doing something very strange and it could signal a major shift in the market. >> plus. >> they can't deny the fact that you like me. >> that's because "fast money"'s going to the red carpet in search of oscar worthy trades

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the democratic primary battle moves to south carolina. brian williams, rachel maddow and chris matthews with complete live coverage tomorrow beginning at 6:00 on msnbc. >> welcome back to "fast money." hollywood getting ready for its biggest night of the year and,

no, it's not the repeats of "fast money." it's the oscars. cnbc's always glamorous julia boorstin is on the red carpet and joins us with a look at studio's race for gold. julia? >> reporter: well, melissa, the studio with the most nominations is knocks. it has 26 nominations going into sunday negotiate. that's a dozen more than disney which is in second place. now, fox's four best picture nominations range from big dark budget cloud pleaser "the martian" to "brooklyn" which snapped up at $9 million at sundance last year. so far this yore fox is also dominating at the box office thanks to the surprise blowout success of "dead pool" which is a lower budget r-rated marvel film which is distributing. viacom's paramount drew just six oscar nominations and is lagging at the box office. it was last among all the major studios last year with just 6% of box office market share. one reason that viacom just put it on the block.

it's in talks with some strategic investors. theatrical success and oscar claim don't always line up. universal which is also owned by comcast, cnbc's parent company, dominated the box office last year with 21% of u.s. market share but this year at the oscars it has only four nominations, but oscar wins can actually drive box office success. a new study by ibis world estimates best picture winners estimate $10 million in additional box office following their victory while nominated films that didn't win, they average an extra $4 million afternoon the awards show. now the smaller a film's box office going into the awards show, the bigger the potential impact of all this attention of all the red carpet and the awards. melissa, back to you. >> julia, thank you. well, in the spirit of the oscars we here asked the traders to give you some oscar worthy stock picks and these are their favorite stocks. let's go around the horn. grasso works are you giving the

oscar to? >> alshire group, 3.6% yield. today the stock was off and you had a risk-on day and stock going back to-to-'09 it's straight up so i would think that in a good market, bad market you're still hunting for yield and you find it in attila. >> steve? >> aleksion is my pick. look, this is a company that's really -- we've seen the deck's cleared since they reported earnings, and i lock at the stock and say they got to trigger a near term turn coming up in june for one of the products which will have good data and aleksion, 140 bucks, most of the de-risking has occurred and struggling in biotech and long term this is a name you want. >> down 26% and running into headwinds that are just ratcheting up. >> been in a scenario where the entire sector for the most part has discounted a lot of it, a

lot of it, and i do believe a lot of it. it's $140 from a valuation, growing earnings at 20%. this is a name you want to own. >> dan? >> seems really passionate about that. i don't even know what that is. mine has nothing to do with the oscars but really interesting, paypal. a company that obviously -- >> you like me. >> spun out last year and what's interesting to me is here's a company that's extent pected to have mid-teens earnings and sales growth and trading the same multiple as visa and mastercard that have much less expected growth so to me you have a company that has very interesting positioning and what i think is a very strong secular movement in e-payments, also have the peer to peer payments thing and to me paypal is really interesting in the mid-30s. it's had a good week and to me you pick it up mid-30s. >> marisa tomei, you didn't think she was going to win. >> good segue.

>> emerson electric, how many times do we go to that. >> you like me. >> i like you, too. and with that stuff going on between united technology and uteck and honeywell, look for companies that could be in the crosshairs, very interesting company. $32 billion market cap and could fit very nicely. >> quick program note. the oracle of omaha warren buffett will spend three hours with "squawk box's" becky quick 6:00 to 9:00 eastern time and tweet use the #askwarren. don't want to miss. this time now for the final trade. around the horn. grasso had. >> why make it complicated, attila group, mo, final trade siebert? >> i've been bullish on nike and turning the tables a little bit. foot locker is a real tell-in to what's going to happen with the high-end sneaker market. >> dan in. >> iwm, small caps run too far too fast. >> big oa coming up.

mationy's big week, terry lundgren, did you hear him? talked about that cold weather. >> he's crazy. >> that does it for us. see you back here on monday with more "fast." "stay with us. "options action" begins right after this break. tomorrow starts today.york state

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didn't you get the memo? it's all good or maybe now. live other at the nasdaq marketplace. guys are getting ready behind me. while they are doing that, here's what's coming up. ♪ that's what stocks did this week, but a classic indicator says the rally may soon end. we'll tell you what it is and how you can protect yourself. >> plus -- >> and we're going to have a big, big, big a lot of fun. >> we sure are, donald, because we have a way to make money in apple if harris go up, down or nowhere at all and we'll