>> doing okay. >> well, they are kind of preparing for a strong number and for the fed to be back in play, right? >> watch the wage number. that's going to be very important. >> stephanie link, michael santolli, appreciate it. that does for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" does start right. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. traders are peter najarian, steve grasso, brian kelly and guy adami. doesn't a big bubble just burst on the market but it shouldn't scare you just yet because one strategist says that very thing could spell big gains for stocks. we'll explain. plus, from first to worst, the best performing stock in the s&p is now officially in bear market territory. what that is and whether traders are betting on a turnaround. but, first, we start with a breaking news on former chesapeake energy ceo aubrey mcclendon and let's get straight to sue herera with the very latest on this developing story, sue? >> an accident happened earlier this morning about 8:15 a.m.

this morning, and aubrey mcclendon, the former ceo of chesapeake energy, was identified by the oklahoma city police department as being the victim in this one-car accident that occurred on a country road in hockey hockey city. here is what paco baldarama had to say about the circumstances surrounding the accident. >> he pretty much drove straight into the wall. the information and evidence out there at the scene is he went left of center, went through a grassy area right before colliding into the -- into the embankment. there was plenty of opportunity for him to correct or get back on the roadway and that didn't occur. he went straight into the embankment and collided in it, and ultimately he died from his -- his injuries, we believe. >> reporter: he was the only person in the vehicle which burst into flames. keep in mind, this accident comes one day after aubrey mcclendon, the former ceo of chesapeake energy was indicted on allegations of rigging gas

leases from the years 2007 to 2012 while he was chief executive at chesapeake energy. those charges being brought by the justice department. mr. mcclendon was due in court mid-morning today on those charges. mcclendon pushed back say, quote, the charge that has been filed today against me is wrong and unprecedented. all my life i've worked to create jobs in oklahoma, grow its economy and provide abundant and affordable energy to all americans, so he had also hired a law firm to defend himself. at this point police are not speculating on what the cause of the crash was. they are going to investigate and take a look at the data on the computer in his car. now, that indictment not only cited mcclendon. it also cited an unnamed second party. another oil and/or gas or energy company. there are unconfirmed reports by bloomberg citing unnamed sources that that other party is

sanbridge energy. cnbc has not confirmed that. reuters has not confirmed that. that's an unconfirmed bloomberg report. sanbridge's stock did move down on that report. melissa, you are up to date. back to you. >> thank you, very much, sue herrera. let's bring in dennis gartman of "the gartman letter" who joins us on the "fast" line. aubrey was a personal friend of yours. what does this mean for you since he was a pioneer in this industry? >> he truly was a pie another in the great oil and gas industry. he's greatly responsible for the advances of fracking here in the united states. he's greatly responsible for natural gas, as important as natural gas has become. i'm shocked to hear the news, and although it probably is going to have the greatest effect on prices, it is disturb

ing it was the oil and gas industry who change the manner in how we find oil and energy and gas in the united states completely, that's a loss. >> mcclendon left chesapeake in 2013 it wasn't an amicable separation to put it politely. he was basically forced out by activists. >> yeah. >> i would bet that he made a lot of enemies along the way, making a lot of friends. i'm just wondering what your thoughts are on whether or not it seemed according to a statement that he thought that the justice department was sort of gunning for him, that he was the only executive in the statement, he said, to be indicted under the sherman act in 110 years. >> when i saw the indictment yesterday, i thought it was almost sad and terribly and the only executive to be brought under indictment under those rules and i think they would

have stood up to him and would have defended himself adamantly and well. no question about it. that's a sad time for me and many people in that business. >> what happens to some of the other companies from this industry in your view, if anything, the likes of sanbridge and sue herera reporting to an unconfirmed report by a bloomberg report that that is the unnamed conspirator in this -- in this case. what happens to companies like that, encana, any other company within the nat gas industry? >> i would hesitate to -- to answer that question because one doesn't know. lawyers would argue with what, but an old room is never just one cockroach. always a problem. when a problem like this, there tends to be more that follow and let's just -- let's just take a day to -- to honor a great guy in the business.

i'll let others wiser than i comment what it means for sanbridge and the rest. >> dennis, we'll leave it there. the connection is a little bit shaky and we do appreciate the thoughts on this tragic development on this story but aubrey mcclendon, dennis gartman of "the gartman letter." were mentioned the reaction to sanbridge's price and i hate to bring it up and the reaction in chesapeake's price was undeniable t.popped on this news. >> chesapeake was up yesterday. it's really hard to then get in a conversation about how do you trade the stocks. >> yes. >> dhes peek was up huge and the space up as well. steve's freeport-mcmoran that he's been talking about. whether it's coincidental or not i'm not sure. this about aubrey mcclendon i'll say. for years and years we wanted energy independence, energy independence in this country and there are few people that helped us get to where we are right now, regardless of when you think about him, he's one of them along with t. boone pickens so it's a huge loss i think for the country.

it's a huge loss for entrepreneurship. >> huge proponent of nat gas as an alternative and appropriate pent of nat gas vehicles. >> right. >> hasn't quite come as far as what he thought would happen. >> yeah. >> in the space. >> that takes a huge -- and t. boone pickens has talked about this as well. it takes a huge conversion to get the entire vehicle fleet over to natural gas. it seems to me that the first progression would be the transportation sector, your trucks and your buses and that type of thing, but that's probably coming down the line. these are long-term projects. when he started in the fracking business, and this was 10, 20 years ago and we didn't know anything about it, and it created an industry so that's probably, you know, a couple decades away. >> yeah. >> he didn't invent this business, but he was definitely the guy behind the momentum and doesn't matter what you think of him. i couldn't find anyone who had anything bad to say about him, and usually you would find someone with something but people genuinely liked this individual for what it's worth

and he was the guy behind making us an exporter of energy versus an importer of energy. >> about energy independence, as guy mentioned and a pioneer in the field and somebody along with t. boone pickens where we've all looked over -- especially over the last decade or so when we're talking about energy and we're not talking oil but we're looking more towards the natural gas world. those are the names that always seem to pop up and this is really an unfortunate thing and dennis hit on one thing that resonates with us as well and there's never just one cockroach so whatever is going on here in this investigation will be a very, very interesting process to -- to be laid out in front of us over the next month and years going forward. >> does that make you more inclined for you to stay away from the space? >> and we'll get into this a little bit later, and it makes you start to wonder, a little bit at least, when we talk about consolidate and we talk about some of the big energy companies going out and looking for acquisitions and does this make them a little bit more hesitant. >> first of all, look at -- look at this one in particular has a

40% shortage. this is not dissimilar to when we talked about freeport on this desk. the easy money has already been made. >> on the short side. >> on the short side. >> so you can't go out there and recklessly short a stock that's $3. we start talking about freeport at $4. >> right. >> it's doubled. >> okay. >> still ahead, much more coverage on this breaking story on former chesapeake ceo aubrey mcclendon. we'll bring you the headlines as they break, and the best performing stock in the s&p 500 last year is officially in bear market territory. we will tell you what that is and whether there's any hope for a turnaround, and later short seller citron taking aim at tesla but it's the comments that andrew leff says really has the streak talking. we'll explain when "fast money" returns.

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♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. welcome back to f-fun. a quiet day on the markets but stocks did close right at the highs. banks and energy leading the gains, the xle leading the day higher by more than 2.5% and grasso, you were saying on the conference call you thought oil was the story of the day. >> oil remains the story that moves the markets the most. it's a symbol of global growth or lack thereof and if you overlook the s&p and overlook crude, whether it's longer term, last couple of months or an individual day like today you'll

see that they are in lock step, so i think that inventory data fooled a lot of people. they were so mismatched and way off the mark on this. i think you sell a spike like that in crude. guys got nervous and covered the shorts and thinking they are missing something and i think the bigger trade is still lower in both. >> the biggest story is financial. >> it is. >> because it's day two. >> and we're watching the financials really start to take off. when you look at the leadership that's coming from the financials right now it's all the big names and the ones you sort of expect but to see city involved in this as well as much as they are. bank of america, a little bit easier. percentage-wise it's going to move a little bit more and you'll get that kind of a kick and the energy story is interesting and the most interesting thing is interesting and that is which energy name moved the most? conoco phillips? the ones that cut the dividend. i wonder if there's a torque attached to conoco phillips the way it's up 6% as opposed to everybody else that added another 12% or so. >> february 16th, so we had said for a long time the ovx will be your tell, right?

february 16th trades up to 81 and change and closes at 71 that day, and we said, look, crude closed at 30 bucks down slightly on the day, and we said this might be the turn. i'm not suggesting we called it, but we talked about that, and now here's the ovx in the 50s and crude has gone up probably 25%, 30%, right? i hear what steve is saying and the ovx just like it gave you the bottom. i think it will give you the top and in a day when the ovx trades down and reverses closes higher. >> how much changes? >> i think a lot. >> an awful lot. >> we're offsides, repositioning and thinking the adp number this morning was good. the pmi numbers were -- in still trending down. i guess people took them as, hey, maybe this is not as bad as we thought and when i look at it, nothing has really changed at all and i think when we come to friday, again, the market's got itself in this condition or this position where what's going to happen, if we have a weak jobs report which i don't expect and we have that and people will

say wait a second and the economy is bad again. if it's really good then people are going to say, wait a second, maybe now the feds will raise rates and look what happened the last time. i think the market is in a tough spot. if you are buying the market here as opposed to down at 1850 you're trading backwards. >> if you're looking to jump in on recent numbers, look no further than the dogs of the dow, the stocks that have had the highest yielding dividends and some of the biggest dogs have been broadly outperforming the market so do you speak with him. paul hickee is here to explain. paul, so far the dogs are, the dogs have been? >> i mean, it's the ten highest yielding stocks in the s&p 500. two of the best performers so far this year are walmart and procter & gamble. i don't think anyone was really looking for walmart to outperform coming into this year so i think what you're looking at here is rather than focusing on the dividends is investors are coming into higher quality stocks and higher quality stocks tend to pay dividends.

what's been really interesting here and year-to-date from the start of the year to the low in february we saw the highest paying dividend stocks outperform the rest of the market. you expect to see that in a market downturn and since the market bottomed because the best performing group of 50 stocks in the s&p 500 is the highest yielders so we'll see it on the way up and on the way down and on the way up, and when you see that kind of outperformance you better have a good reason why you don't think it's going to continue going forward so this whole trend of investors moving towards higher quality. >> show that support is sticking with that group of stocks so at this point the question we put for the is do you stick with the ones that have been work. what does your data indicate in terms of continued outperformance? >> when you look at the performance of the highest dividend paying stocks, dougs on the dow, even -- not even including this period, investing in the highest dividend paying stocks, long-term it's a good strategy. s&p 500 since -- the dogs. dow since 2000 have outperformed

11 out of 16 years and outperforming this year and when you see this going forward, you're seeing, again, the move towards higher quality, and when you see the -- everyone says that when the -- when the fed headaches rates you're going to see the dividend payers underperform. >> right. >> but when you look back in history it's not nearly as clear cut as that and as long as we don't have a real inflationary environment stick with high quality and dividend paying stocks as interest rates return to normalization. >> caterpillar was on that list. sometimes dividend yields are high because a stock price has gone down and that would fall into that category. >> any of those ten dogs of the dow, don't get high yields for no reason. they are usually out of favor. it's buying beaten down stocks. again, one of the stocks that isn't a dog. dow heading into this year is goldman sachs, one of the worst performers in the dow, and i think if you asked 100 people how goldman was going to do heading into 2016, most people would have said it's doing great, so it's, again, you focus

on -- it's a focus on out of favor by higher quality stocks. stocks in the dow most likely are going to be able to keep their dividends. there's been some questions of exxon mobil, but as rex tillerson said they are committed to the dividend and i think unless oil stays this way, lower for an extended period of time for years, this dividend there is relatively safe. >> paul, thanks for stopping by. >> which dogs in your view are dogs? >> which dogs? >> this one, first thing that comes to my mind is ibm and now it's still down on the year and it's had a huge move from 116 to where it is now, 136, with almost a 4% dividend, so is that stack finally -- do we have clearance by this stock? i say no. i think you sell that name. i think it's rallied too much. >> which dog is a dog worth buying? >> jpmorgan. >> okay. >> i mean, if we're going to throw them in the dog category you and i disagree. >> i'm going to completely disagree.

>> i know you are, but with the 3% dividend yield and jamie dimon, still that bottom is still there at 53 where he starts to jump in and now it's pushing towards 60 once again and if we see any steepening in the yield curve at all throughout the rest of the year, that will benefit things. >> i don't like that at all. what i say when i see these -- when i see these dividend stocks, what it tells me is investors are telling me they think there's going to be deflation and low inflation and that means the yield curve won't steepen even. this is not b.k. we want observing signals from the market. people think there will be deflation out there so sold to you and jamie. >> i'm concerned about that. >> my concern is about these dividend paying stocks in general even beyond the conversation when they get into pockets where they are historically down themselves. >> the stock is off completely, hasn't really bounced back, but

if you want a dividend and want a solid chart, attila group, philip morris. the charts look great and the yield look great. >> still ahead, a big bubble just burst in the market but don't be afraid. one strategist says that very thing could sell big things for stocks. we'll explain. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. meantime, here what else is coming up on "fast." >> gold record rally. something one group of stocks hasn't done since 1998. what it is and how you can get in on the action, and it's the one area of the market that could be signaling stocks are about to make a major move lower. we'll tell you what has traders so they are vows when f-fun returns. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need

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welcome back to "fast money." time for top steroids. the high growth and hoy stakes edition. kicking it off with amazon, bmo with an outperform rating saying its per performance this year makes it an excellent opportunity to get into the name. the stock is nearing bear market territory. down 17% from its recent highs. pete, what do you day? >> the opportunities are really two things, aws, which has gotten incredible growth in its prime and that seemed to be what resonated most about this letter that was put out is talking

about prime, talking about the membership and those that are a part of prime and how much more they spend versus the folks that are non-prime. because of all those reasons all of it makes sense, right? the one issue that you always are going to have with amazon is how do you get your arms around the valuation levels which it trades right now or has forever, but he's got a $700 price target on it now. that's extreme relative to where we are right now. everything winds up. it's just one of these names, mel, where i've had a real hard time other than just being in for a trade through option. it's a very difficult stock to say at 580 and a multiple that's absolute extreme and how do i jump into this name? >> you could have said that about forever. >> forever. >> and in an environment where cloud names are getting more appreciation, if it says anything about aws doesn't that set that up for some sort of bounce. >> i think we covered this a little bit earlier with the yield play, and if that's what the market is buying, not buying growth, but protection. >> the environment. >> the environment is going to be chaos for them on the way

down. >> but there's huge risks here coming into 2016 talking about holding for a long period of time. aws will have competition, essentially a commoditized product. yes, prime is there and a stock that's from 480 up to 500, absolutely no way in this environment that i think you should be out tomorrow buying it. >> they announced that they are going to spin off in some way aws. what does that do to the stock? >> i don't think they will. >> what hurt the stock. >> they would. >> it's that valuable this. 580 level down to where they traded right after they reported the. we subsequently broke down, but this was support for a while. i'm with these guys here. i think that's no-man's-land. >> netflix, the stock doubling down on its original content saying it will renew "fuller house" for a second season and that announcement comes ahead of a season four debut of "house of cards" this friday. guy? >> "fuller house." >> the play off of "full house." >> we did a spoof of "full

house" and had a picnic and sat on the ground and handed out sandwiches. >> i'll say this about this. i was a netflix bull for a long time and then it didn't prove itself. last quarter disappointed a lot of people. meandering down around the $15 level. got to prove itself again and it won't happen until april earnings. >> are they playing the music now? >> "full house." >> should we watch that? that didn't look like a kids show that i just saw, the first clip they played. the first one wasn't either. >> no. >> that was "house of cards." >> we're on it right now. >> i'm just saying, looks like an odd piece of footage. >> that's a clip from the show. >> i would say what the trade? >> want to buy it against 95 bucks, do it. right now, you're playing, like amazon, no man he's land. >> grasso, this environment doesn't favor? >> certainly, absolutely doesn't in this environment but if we start to see any kind of a change -- >> how long of a time frame, do

you think? >> the way i look at netflix, you're spot on. you have to use a point of reference to say when i'm out and you gave a $2 downside. 95. if you got in here at 97. got 95. start getting a little bit shaken out of this. international expansion has been the story. continue to be the story. if they can execute on that, this stock is going back over 110. >> now to our last high-growth high-stakes stock. tesla getting hit over the past couple of days. andrew leff says he's taking a short position in the name. listen to what he had to say earlier today on "the halftime report." >> it's the news flow surrounding tesla, and in doing what i'm doing for a living i'm constantly looking at the information that comes out of the marketplace, and where i underestimated tesla the first time is when the model "s" was introduced, 9 out of 10 stories were saying how great the cars, how great the cars and the stock just followed. if you look at right now, right now there's more balance. >> all right. i was listening to this

interview today and i was chomping at the bit because of what it sounded to me like he was saying was that he goggled tesla, saw what the news flow was and that in and of itself was enough for him to put on a short position which by the way did not take the stock down as much as other lengthier depth researchers on valeant which raised the stock that day. >> he has a reputation for doing very in-depth and good work. you see this saying the news flow around it. >> nine out of ten stories. >> it's different. it seems to be a different strategy from citron. doesn't seem to be the hard-hitting stuff they have done in the past. that being said, you know, it bounced up close to 200 here. i wouldn't be buying it here. i think in the long run you buy tesla but closer to 120 is where i pick it up. >> these charts all look similar. amazon down 14% year to date. you get netflix down 14% year to date and tesla down 21% year to date. the 50-day moving average, that's your resistance.

it's 195. to buy this stock which i would say do not buy this stock here. it has to close above 195 and the you use that as the exit. >> year-to-date chart really here for tesla since it made a decent bott tomorrow and we're off of that. >> a big conspiracy they'reist. >> what does it mean? >> huge conspiracy theorists. >> plus -- >> let me say this. >> yes. >> you made an interesting point. this is not the typical hard-hitting research that they have done in the past. >> yes. >> maybe that's what they are throwing out in order to put on his short position. maybe that hard-hitting research about tesla >> is to come. >> is to come. >> just throwing it out there. that's the way my mind works. >> short interest is 32%, so this thing is prime to push back just a little bit. it is prime that if you get that risk-on trade that pete was talking about when he kicked it off earlier on one of these names, you can see a little bit of a run to the upside. i don't think we're in that environment.

i think the s&p will trade down. i think all these m ho mos will trade down and the yield plays will trade up. >> the concerns about production, i mean, what they are saying is they don't think that the production numbers are going to be what they are promised to be. >> we've heard that over an over again. heard that all the way down. >> right. >> as a matter of fact on the last earnings call they -- they said, look, it's going to be 80 to 90,000 and we've got to have cash -- positive cash flows so this is literal lit management against citron in this particular case. >> remember when you and i test drove it. >> so much fun. >> in the snow. >> and then we went to what place. >> >> the cheesecake factory. >> and had cheesecake -- i'm sure america is enthralled by this. >> it may be. >> i think it may be enthralled for all i know. >> no. >> just saying. >> one crucial part of the market is having a monster rally this year, but could that moan bad news for stocks? we'll explain and much more on the breaking news on former chesapeake energy show aubrey mcclendon and we his death. we'll bring you the headlines. much more "fast" after this. know your financial plan

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welcome back to "fast money." let get back to the breaking news story we've been following on former chesapeake argue ceo aubrey mcclendon. cnbc's kate kelly joins us on the "fast" line with all the details. quite a bombshell. the news of the indictment broke yesterday. >> reporter: it really was a shock. i was on the phone mid-morning talking about the indictment news and little did i or anyone know that mr. mcclendon had already passed in this accident that took place shortly half 9:00 in the morning in oklahoma. obviously we don't know all the details on, you know, whether this was something intentional or not and perhaps we'll get some clarity in the coming days, but it is a shock. i mean, mcclendon had had a reversal of fortunes for sure and some serious things to his reputation, no doubt about it and had been implicated in private litigation filed by his former employer chesapeake for allegedly stealing trade

secrets. that last year. he had raised $15 billion for his new very tour, american energy partners which, of course, is very impressive and they like everybody has struggled with the price of commodities. i was looking at gas prices and so unbelievable that they are 1.70, 1.67 and, of course, crude oil, too. clearly a rough time in the industry causing him pain as well but his flamboyant personality and willing to take on risks and leverage which is infamous in the industry and beyond obviously it is an alleged illegal activity. we don't know if that would have been proven in court but we conspired to make it a difficult point in time for him. >> reporter: >> kate, what's the next step in terms of the investigation and this stock traded as if there's some sort of a cloud lifted off of chesapeake seeing the stock pop 32% immediately on news of his death and then sanridge with

the turn lower? >> seems slightly irration that chesapeake would rally so hard on this news. they had found a leniency agreement with the justice department and perhaps it was sort of word of that that allowed investors to feel a little more comfortable with the stock and mcclendon has been largely uninvolved since he left in 2013 and as for sanridge the issue is there. there may be one of the unnamed companies in the injuries for allegedly working with -- chesapeake and mcclendon to rig some of the land. as well as perhaps ceo tom ward who co-founded with mcclendon >> you know this space very well

and have written a book about it. i wonder what you believe could be the longer-term implications specifically on the nat gas and industry. >> you know, i mean, i raised this on "power lunch" with -- with jim cramer and others. i mean, i think this is a really sad moment for the industry. mcclendon certainly had a lot of nurse and he fell out with some of the old friends in the business within the last couple of years, but, you know, i think american drilling still has sort of a family atmosphere in many places, certainly a relatively small town like oklahoma city. i imagine it's a little bit like a midland, you know, sort of not as large or, you know, international as houston, but people really know each other. i got incoming calls after i was on the air from financiers and others involved in oil and gas and just feeling really sad about what this is. in terms of natural gas, you know, everybody is struggling obviously and there's a real question as to when -- i mean, i think profitability has seized

really at this point and who knows when it's going to bounce back. it's so plentiful and there's so many uses for it and it gets such better prices and overseas market and notably asia, but it's just been fraught with problems. even cheniere which i've talked about and you guys talk about all the time. they have a huge first mover advantage but, you know, they still, i believe, i don't know the timing of the situation and i believe they are now just getting going or will in the next couple of weeks and obviously had their ceo ousted as well. >> kate, thanks so much for phoning in. we appreciate it. kate kelly who has covered this space extensively. >> i want to frame the chesapeake move within context, and you raised a good point. we don't want to jump to conclusions, the big pop because the short interest has been very high in this stock. >> when you've had news reading algos and you have people that are frightful on their positions and you have a 40% short interest, anything can happen to the stock, anything with any headline. people with perceive it to be

something that it's not, and they cover their position. they cover their shorts first and they ask questions later. >> all right. let's get back to the markets now. stocks closing at the highs of the day after yesterday's massive rally. our next guest thinks the good times are just starting started and the so-called negatively bubble has officially burst. julian emmanuel is with exity strategy and drive tis. why do you think the equity bubble has burst? >> a weak first quarter and accpeted like the fourth quarter was going to be weak again and just when china was getting volatile in china and -- and, you know, essentially people would defensively positioned coming in and saw no real reason to add to positions certainly with the momentum stocks taking a breather and then all of a sudden oil falls off the cliff so you put that all together and you add in the soup of a presidential debate where the noise has just been absolutely horrifying to a lot of people.

talking about how bad the economy is, but then all of a sudden we see that the numbers start to get a little bit better but people are so defensively positioned that you're in a situation now where they are not -- they are expecting -- their expectations are very, very muted, so we get a number like the ism yesterday that doesn't show expansion. it just shows a little bit better than what we're expecting, and you get an outsized market reaction to the upside. >> kind of a gold locks sort of number. 2175 is your s&p 500 year-end target. >> that's right. what's the path there? is that a sharp snap in the second half of the year? >> no. what we think has happened is this turn in february where, you know, assets from the mexican peso to unleaded gas, to obviously retail stocks in the s&p all turned together. just saying that -- that the mentality has changed such that we're not going to need to be surprised excessively. things just need to go a little bit better than they have been

and you continue to get a rally like what we've seen the last couple of weeks where the pullbacks are very shallow. >> why can't they get worse? >> they can always get worse. there's no question. >> then it's a coin flip whether we go higher or lower? >> no, because basically where you are is this mode where people have been defensive. if you look at it in terms of how individual investors have been less bullish than at the lows in march of 2009, and that type of sentiment is sort of the contrarian signal that literally every time three, six and 12 mounts down the road markets are higher. >> you may think that a negativity bubble is popping and, for instance, when you take a look under the covers of yesterday's massive rally, we didn't see as sharp of a selloff as you might think in defensive sectors such as the utilities or consumer staples. what do you need to say because actually even on the surface it seemed like a big powerful rally. you had shallow pullbacks in the defensive sectors and we had low

volume as well. >> that's right. >> the volume, we don't necessarily think that you're going to get these big volume spikes. >> okay. >> because investors have been reluctant to participate so it's going to be grudging higher. what you need to get are those defensive sectors to sort of start underperforming is rates to move higher. we've seen it creep up the last few weeks and we expect that to continue. >> crucial to your 2175 is how many rate hikes until the end of the year? >> only looking for two. >> september and december, and we're of the mind, if you look at it. we wrote had a note this morning that talked about the fomc, the last minute had 19 references to the word uncertainty. >> right. >> historic. >> the fed is not going to go until it feels good and ready to go. >> okay. julian, thank you so much. >> julian emanuel of uvs. >> i think we're going to 2029. i think you brought up an interesting point. gold up today, tlt up today.

a lot of cross-signals that we've talked about for a while. i think the rally will end in the s&p at 2025 and coincide with the ovx trading either side of 50 which is the top of the oil market in the short term. that's what i think is happening. we could absolutely see his levels at the back end of this year. >> sure. >> but if we fail at 2025 we'll make another retest of levels we saw earlier in the year. >> and if julian is correct about many so of the rate hikes and something you and i debated already today, i think the financials would obviously be a beneficiary of that and that pushes us past that 2025 level and pushes it into the 2100s. >> stocks aren't the only ones that have seen a bounce in the last couple of years. the high-yield market is up 7% from its mid-february low. b.k. was warning that the bounce could be the ultimate high yield head fake >> you need to be careful. >> everybody's getting excited. >> people are shocked that b.k. is a little bit bearish here and let's take a look at hyg. a huge move and the problems are over, here we go. here's the high yield

year-to-date chart. look at this massive bounce off the bottom. here -- this line here is flat year to date so we're a little bit positive year to date, but let's kind of take a little bit of this in a little bit of perspective. this is your five-year chart. you're down 22% from there. you are here. i don't know if i can write it. i can't. you are right here like the malls that you see on the map. down here in the basement of the mall. things don't look that great when you look at it this way. now, let's take a look at the table that i have here to kind of show you that this type of 7% snapback is what we had is not unusual, okay. so we had events june to july and a 6.5% advance and then we had an 8.5% decline. that lasted until december 2014. another 6.7% increase. then we had an 11.2% decline. last thing we saw was last september. 4% advance and a 12% decline now and here we are with a 7% rally and patterns would suggest that we go lower. why do i think it's going to go

lower? one i think oil goes lower. seen a lot of these companies either do secondary offerings or refinance. what are you going to do when you have that cash? you're going to go out and pump more oil so i think that you get a lower yield, lower, high yield, lower hyg and that could lead stocks lower again. >> yeah. >> what do you think, because, peter, hyg has often been correlated with stocks? >> and i've trade it had recently and got a little bit lucky in the hyg and to b.k.'s point, something you have to be considering along the way. you've got to consider all of these things. talk about it every day. i mean, it's a combination of china and combination of oil and i don't think there's any one specific thing that anybody should be looking at each and every day and if we encompass all of those different metrix sure gives us a lot of health in terms of what direction we're moving right now. >> target just wrapping up its analyst meeting here in new york city. we'll hear right from the ceo about what has him so excited

about the growth prospects. the rally that won't quit. gold son a tear and looks like it's not going anywhere but up. is it too late to get in. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back to "fast money." check out this move in the gold miner's etf, the gdx catching a bid, not to mention the winning trade this year, up a whopping 39%. too late to get in on this trade. guy, i would venture you would say no? >> no. >> and pete is going to tell you the options market. >> i'm not going to speak for him hand let him talk. >> no. >> i've got it tell you something and you know i'm right. >> gold should have sold off hard the last couple of days and it's hanging in there. >> true. >> telling you something. >> as pete would say. >> giddy-up. >> this is going higher. >> what did pete say. >> here's what pete will say is when they started buying this way back in december they were buying the june 15 calls and then they started pushing out and the closer we've got in the last month half or so gone all the way up to the june 22 calls. doesn't necessarily mean we'll get to 22 but it certainly means somebody out there has room to the upside and maybe we'll get a room to the 20s. a little hint on one thing. final trade will be involved in this world. >> the problem. >> grasso says there's a

problem. >> gdx outperforms to the upside and the recent lows in gld up 18%. gdx, up 55%, so if you start to see it roll over and i do think it's starting to roll over, you see the headlines in india now taxing gold. huge, depends on if you're donald trump, buyers of gold. i think that's a negative headline and you'll start to see both roll over. >> i think you actually buy silver and that's the better way to do it. >> it's underperformed gold and 70% of silver is mined as a part of mining copper and a couple of these other things. you start seeing some of those mines get shut down and production shut in which everybody is expecting. then you'll have a shortage in silver underperform gold. >> you know why? >> because you're a younger man and as dennis garret non-would say i'll leave silver up. >> gentlemen don't trade silver so maybe that's -- >> could be the youngest one

here. >> 32. >> nice job. >> target just wrapping up its analyst meeting moments ago and ceo brian cornell had some interesting comments about the company's transformation plant. could have big implications for the stock and we'll hear from the ceo right after this. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade.

it's time to take out the check list. where are we now and more importantly where is this market headed next? i've got the

welcome back to "fast money." target wrapping up its analyst meeting. moments ago cnbc's courtney reagan is live in new york city where she sat down with ceo brian cornell for a very rare interview. hey, security. >> hi, melissa, year two of the transformation that brian cornell announced at the very meeting last year. a lot of this is similar going forward but target emphasized it will use its existing assets and the resources much more smartly going forward than it has in the future and i spoke exclusively with ceo brian cornell about his decision to continue to increase capital expenditures this year to $1.8 billion. here's what he said. >> we'll continue to invest in technology. we'll continue to invest in supply chain. we're investing our stores, both remodeling and building new stores and obviously there's ongoing maintenance and repair so those are the really big buckets. >> now target expects that its

comps are going forward annually from 2017 and beyond will increase by 3%. however, the forecast for 2016 comp growth is 1.5% to 2.5% and when i asked why the difference he said they are just being prudent in the economic and consumer environment, but the initiatives in place will help to accelerate that growth. there are some skeptics, but that is target's plan right now. cornell said in fact that he expects aggressive growth in the signature categories, remember, style, baby kids and wellness. the company also plans to purchase $3.5 billion worth of shares this year and that is higher than its longer-term goal of $3 billion because of its current cash position. melissa. >> courtney reagan, thank you. >> thought you liked walmart and you have to like target. it's up 11% in the past one month. >> i think it's trading 80 now. it's got to get 85 that we made

sometime high and it's not ridiculously extensive and that's where walmart trades and to me it's got to prove itself now and closing itself means closing above 85 bucks. >> coming up next the final trade. stay tuned. imagine if the things you bought every day... ...earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. with the united mileageplus explorer card, you'll get a free checked bag, two united club passes, priority boarding, and 30,000 bonus miles. everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. the united mileageplus explorer card. imagine where it will take you.

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time now for the final trade. pete najarian. >> first of all that, is an incredible shot right now. >> yeah, absolutely. i love that whole thing. >> gdx we talked about earlier, abx, giddy-up, it's going higher. >> grasso. >> i could say philip morris. i could say althea group. >> xlu final trade. >> that's so sneaky, you got in three potential final trades in one. >> yeah, that was. >> b.k.ers? >> for me i'm going to give you one to go into non-farm payrolls, uup. there's a chance that the fed could actually raise rates here and it acts as a nice hedge for your gdx. >> guy? >> hi there. >> hi, there. >> that's a good crew tonight. >> fun, fun. >> you like target? >> it's interesting. >> what do you call that when he's on one hook and i'm on the

other. he said -- he's the ying to my yang. >> book it? >> giddy-up. >> love this. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make money. my job the not just to entertain you but to teach and coach you, tweet me @jimcramer. i don't know about you, but it feels better, doesn't it? is it actually better? pretty good consolidation following yesterday's big