good morning. a stealth rally. stocks rising to their best levels in two months, but there are new tests for the market today, including lots of economic data. fiery car rash. former chesapeake energy ceo aubrey mcclendon dies just one day after being indicted by a federal grand jury. and decision 2016. republican presidential hopefuls ready to square off again tonight, but the field looks a little different this morning. it's thursday, march 3rd, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning and welcome to

wor "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >> let's get straight to the markets. u.s. equity futures. we had a positive start to march, a decent second of march, although in more muted fashion. the third of march looking to continue that positivity, albeit just slightly. we're looking at only two points up for the dow. we're fractionally higher in this early premarket trade. >> while you were sleeping, here's what you missed overnight in asia. new numbers showing momentum in china's services sector has slowed. business activity remaining in expansion mode. that's key, but only at a modest pace. in an interview, china's vice central bank governor said the country will keep a prudent monetary policy. he also said they'll keep the yuan basically stable against a basket of currencies this year. so more communication from the chinese authorities. a number of big market events that could come up and have an impact on asian stocks, including china's national people's congress begins meeting this weekend. then the ecb and the bank of japan meetings next week,

followed by the fed meeting after that. here's how the major averages closed overnight. mixed session. gains in china, gains in japan. the yen has started weakening with this upbeat sentiment around the global markets. that's helped the japanese stock market bounce back. china closing higher as well. >> china in particular responding more to that rrr cut at the start of the week. little bits of data that have been negative. that shows confidence coming back in investors' eyes and the chinese authorities' ability to stick to their aim. a developing story out of asia this morning. just hours after the u.n. security council slapped new sanctions on north korea. south korea is accusing the north of a new provocation. south korea's defense ministry says north korea fired several short-range projectiles into the sea. the sanctions on pyongyang are

the toughests in 20 years and came in reaction to the north's recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. let's give you a picture of what europe is doing in the early trade right now. also a mixed picture. the euro just turned higher. it was weaker overnight. it is now stronger against the u.s. dollar. what you're seeing is fractional declines. actually, the dax is pretty much flat over in germany. so is the french market. the ftse 100 with a gain, same with italy. you mentioned china and the upbeat mood and upbeat tone. copper is actually at a three-month high. the ten-year treasury yield is at the highest in a month. a lot of these moves are showing a rebound, oil among them. >> let's have a look at oil itself. not rebounding strongly today, but as sara already said, it's had a decent week. wti's flat. it's at 34.7. brent down slightly at 36.8. later this morning, do watch out for natural gas inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. eastern. gas prices are trading around the lowest levels in 17 years.

we're at 1.675 today. >> i mentioned some of the cross currents. let's show you the broader markets, including the move in the treasury market. less demand for those safe-haven government bonds has pushed the yield higher. in fact, the two-year yield has shown a big move. it's at the highest since back in january. the ten-year yield also above 1.85. the dollar has made a move higher on the back of some positive data surprises in the u.s. economy, showing perhaps we're not actually entering a recession after all. we're going to get a load of economic data today. we'll see if that's confirmed. the dollar higher against the japanese yen, heading toward 1.14. an important psychological indicator overnight showing things are a little calmer. let's show you what's happening with gold. interestingly, it has been gaining along with stocks and along with the dollar. continuing what has been a strong year for the price of gold. it's up again today, continuing this winning streak. if you step back and sort of look at what has changed into this week, i mentioned the u.s.

data. it's a little bit better. oil has firmed. this is going through sort of investor checklist. it's in the mid-30s 37 we're away from the low 20s, which is super scary for banks. the chinese currency stable. it's a little stronger overnight again today. as i mentioned, the chinese policymakers have been more communicative. >> a really silly point to make, it's march. i wonder whether we've got february behind us, january and february. clearly lots of weakness in january. lots of volatility in february. maybe people had cash balances. also a little focus on central banks. the ecb has got a lot of mention. the euro, albeit flat today, has fallen to 1.08. people saying they're expecting more easing on the back of that move. investors clearly softening the euro ahead of that. i want to point out the move in the other direction from the german bond yield. that's seen yields tick up, matching the u.s. yield tick up.

clearly yields rising for the german bund would suggest other expectations. it doesn't highlight it that closely there. if we go to a closer time frame, it's at 0.2. we need to get to about 0.13. not a huge move. this last week when people have been mentioning, oh, we're expecting easing, you'd expect to see the other direction. all i'm saying is i don't think it's nailed on that we've got the expectation in investors' eyes that we move further into negative rates. nonetheless, the japanese have moved, and it's now mario draghi deciding what to do. >> the fed meeting, which the market is not pricing in any interest rate increase for the month of march. though, the odds have been increasing slightly on the back of these beats in economic data. european stocks, the financials have roared back. in the middle of february when they hit the lowest point since 2013, they have now rebounded.

euro stocks, 13% since then. >> well, i think the financials roaring back has been a clearer move in u.s. financials. they certainly have bounced back. much more selective in europe. results still have been ticking out over the last week or two. standard chartered last week tanking off the back of its results. barclays tanking off its results. today, the busiest day of the week for economic data. jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern, expected to hold steady around the 270,000 level. also, 8:30 we get fourth quarter productivity, which is expected to be revised slightly lower with a forecasted drop of 3.4%. dalgs fed president rob kaplan speaks about the economy this morning. kroger reports earnings before the opening bell while broadcom,

h&r block and hp enterprise out after the bell. >> kroger earnings are going to be good. it's an economic indicator in themselves because it's the biggest grocer in the u.s. outside of walmart. there has been noise from walmart about food deflation. in other corporate news today, apple formally objecting to a judge's order directing the company help the government unlock the iphone at san bernardino shooter. this is essentially a procedural move. the aclu filing a friend of the court brief to the magistrate judge yesterday, urging her to reject the government efforts. chesapeake energy founder aubrey mcclendon died in a single car crash yesterday, one day after being charged with breaking federal anti-trust laws. >> reporter: aubrey mcclendon was a natural gas titan who revolutionized the energy industry. he died in a single car crash in oklahoma city.

the only occupant in a sport utility vehicle that slammed into a concrete bridge support. >> he went left of center, traveling at a high rate of speed, and collided into the west embankment wall of the overpass. his vehicle was engulfed in flames immediately, and he did not survive the accident. >> reporter: mcclendon's death follows an announcement on tuesday that he had been indicted for allegedly conspireing to rig bids to buy oil and natural gas leases in northwest oklahoma between december of 2007 and march 2012. mcclendon, a key player in the u.s. shale boom, helped to found chesapeake energy in 1989, before stepping down in 2013 after a series of investigations into his business practices. chesapeake filed a lawsuit against him in 2015, accusing him of misappropriating company data. he founded american energy partners after leaving

chesapeake, where he served as chief executive. the company put out this statement. aubrey's tremendous leadership, vision, and passion for the energy industry had an impact on the community, the country, and the world. we're tremendously proud of his legacy and will continue to work hard to live up to the unmatched standards he set for excellence and integrity. mcclendon, a duke graduate, was a part owner of the national basketball association's oklahoma city thunder. he denied the charges filed against him. >> reaction is coming in from people inside and outside the oil industry. in a statement, t. boone pickens says, i've known aubrey mcclendon for 25 years. he was a major player in leading the stunning energy renaissance in america. he was charismatic and a true american entrepreneur. no individual is without flaws, but his impact on american energy will be long lasting.

carl icahn, who helped lead to his ouster in 2013, saying, quote, aubrey mcclendon was one of the brightest men i've ever dealt with. i personally always found him to be a gentleman in our interactions. of course, the obituaries are coming out. all of them talking about how influential he was in terms of shaping the shale revolution in this country, but all of them also, you know, marking his stunning rise followed by what has been a checkered past as well and what he stood for in terms of excess in the industry, highly indebted, and running into some legal trouble, including all the way up to a day before his death. >> indeed. thoughts and prayers remain with his family. right. let's switch gears. stocks to watch today. costco reporting lower than expected quarterly earnings. decreased january traffic and a strong green back weighed on the retailer. it's flat in remarket trade. samsonit session, reportedly nearing a deal to buy tumi holdings. it, too, is flat in premarket.

american eagle saw its sales rise during the holiday quarter. the retailer also offering upbeat guidance for the current quarter. it's risen just over half a percent. ibm is suing the daily deal site groupon on, claiming they infringed on four of its patents. the linkedin ceo saying he will decline his annual stock compensation. instead, he'll pass the bonus to his employees. and adidas giving e ining an up outlook. the sportswear company is hopeful for a boost from 2016 events like the rio olympics. the ceo will be on squa"squawk later at 6:40 a.m. he's the outgoing ceo. the company has struggled under his watch lately to catch up with the likes of under armour. i wonder how much of it is kanye west and those yeezy shoes,

which are so explosive. >> i don't know if it's that or soccer stars like david beckham. doubleline capital is shutting down its stock-picking fund. the three-year-old fund never gained much traction and is down 12% this year. they decided to close the fund at a time when investors are more interested in index funds than actively managed ones. still to come, the dollar rising ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report. plenty of other factors at check. a currency check from the bank of tokyo coming up. first, we want to hear from you. our twitter question today, is the u.s. economy on an upswing? "worldwide exchange" will be right back. we'll have answers to that question and much more. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. you gein your car. odors

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a very good morning to you. march the 1st, big gains. march 2nd, small gains. march 3rd, we're looking at even smaller but still gains. we're looking at a little bit of green. the dow called to open up by about five points. as we look at european trade, a similar story over the last couple trading days. again, not too much happening there. we've got france down, the ftse 100 and germany up. basically flat as a whole for european trade. sara? >> wilfred, today's trade of the day. prices for junk bonds are spiking and are now flat for the year. our data team crunched some numbers to determine what to buy if that kind of momentum

continues. looking at the hyg, the etf that tracks the u.s. denominated high-yield corporate debt. when it rallies, so did these etfs. the rsx, the russia-backed etf. the ewz, which tracks brazil, among others. clearly there's an emerging marketing tie in. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc pro. part of this overall sort of risk recovery. high yield selling off when commodities sell off when emerging markets sell off. now we're seeing a reversal of that. >> and another key factor for both of those asset classes, em and high yield, is what the fed is doing with interest rates. again, this u.s. data we've been seeing coming out this week a little stronger, a bit more coming today. big one coming tomorrow. very important. >> on jobs. when we come back here -- actually, we're going to talk about currencies and the u.s. data picture right now and how to trade all of that. >> so global markets of course waiting on tomorrow's big jobs number. central banks will be watching

that as there have been many factors around the world. in an interview earlier this morning, negative rates may break the system soon. >> if you try to run the global system with the systemically important banks all in negative territory, i can guarantee you that something will break. the system is not built to operate at negative rates throughout the world. >> the system is not built to operate in negative rates. let's get another perspective. joining us is the european head of global markets research at the bank of tokyo. thanks for joining us. i suppose this week has slightly increased the possibility of not negative rates but a rate hike again in the u.s. as we look at the fed meeting next week. there will be more focus on the rest of the data that comes out this week, particularly friday. where do you stand out in on what you expect the fed to do for the rest of it had year? >> yeah, for sure.

i think definitely there's been a shift in the flow of data, which i think definitely brings back the idea of rate increases this year. that's not really been taken on board yet by the u.s. rates market. i would expect that to change over the coming weeks. for next week or for the next fomc on the 16th of march, i think they're going to have two, at least three dots still there for rate hikes. fed president williams yesterday said there would be a slight change in the profile. that points to perhaps three rate increases still being expected by the fed. when you look at the data, that is understandable. in particular, the inflation figures we had recently. i think very, very clearly points to domestically generated inflation building in the u.s. that is of crucial importance to the fed. >> perhaps they need to see a little more evidence of it. before the fed comes the ecb

next week. the euro has made a sharp move lower. european stocks have rebounded. great expectations from mario draghi. will he deliver? >> i think he will. i think one change from december when the markets were disappointed that he didn't deliver more is i think a shift in thinking in regard to the bundes bank. they cited increased concerns in regard to energy prices staying lower for longer, shaping wage settlements and pushing inflation expectations further lower. so i think their level of concern is definitely higher today than it was in december. so that element of resistance, i think, is probably gone. and that makes for a much better chance that we do get a more impressive package of measures from the ecb next week. >> derek, for that package to be more impressive, don't we have to see a much bigger monthly size of bond purchases as

opposed to more negative rates or lengthening the time frame of those purchases? because as we've seen in the past within europe and also very much recently with japan with negative rates, their financial systems don't really respond that much to the just simple negative rate move. >> yeah, i agree. i think the ecb is studying very closely how best to do that. the obvious conclusion is they're going to replicate in some way what the boj did and tier the impact of negative rates to try and protect the banks to some degree. that looks like something that could be. but yes, they'll have to increase the pace of asset purchases as well. we're expecting a 10 billion per month increase and a six-month extension in timeline. that would make a qe program of 1.5 trillion become something a little bit just over 2 trillion. that coupled with the rate cut is an impressive package, but i

would stress that's probably what the markets are expecting. i don't expect the euro to plunge on the back of those steps of the ecb. it's not just about the ecb. we need broader market financial conditions to continue to improve. most importantly, we need the fed to come back in and to be raising rates in the second half of this year. >> so is the takeaway, just to tie this all together, the ecb is easing, japan is easing, china is easing, the fed is going the other way and tightening. is the market going to be okay? the broad market, equities, with these crazy currency moves and divergences in central banks, or is the market going to force them all to move together? >> well, i think what might be different on this occasion if the fed were to raise rates, say, twice this year, june and december, if we're in a situation like we're in at the moment where broader risk appetite is a bit more stable, and in particular oil prices stabilize and don't drop again,

then i think where the dollar strengthens going forward will be against a much narrower window of currencies. in other words, the dollar could potentially weaken against a lot of emfx because i think emfx has depreciated by so much that there's some value there. then in commodities fx, we could see a recovery if we see oil continue to stabilize. so the window for dollar strength becomes a lot smaller in terms of the currencies it moves against. that of course is beneficial for the fed to move and for the u.s. economy going forward. >> derek, quick question on sterling just to wrap things up. lots of brexit news came out last week. we saw pound devalue off the back of that. it stabilized a little this week. do you think we get stability in sterling until we get much closer to that june 23rd vote? >> i think we're still in for a potential further decline. today, most worringly, was this services pmi. it dropped again.

that correlates much closer with real gdp. the brexit issue was mentioned as an element that was dampening sentiment. that's something that could linger going forward and start to hit the economy. my view is that from a valuation perspective, although the pound versus the dollar is undervalued at these levels, there's still ample scope for further weakness going forward, and we could get into the high 120s by the time we get to the referendum on the 2 23rd of june. >> the high 120s, i can't believe it, but coming from you, i'll give it serious consideration. a pleasure as always. >> time to go shopping. when we come back, republican presidential hopefuls ready to square off again tonight, but the field is looking a bit different this morning. we'll tell you why next. but first, as we head to break, here's today's forecast from the weather channel's jen carfag carfagno. >> sara and wilfred, we got another system on our hands, and this one certainly brings a lot of potential with it. that's the key with this.

potential for some snow, fairly light accumulations in places like chicago. scooting through the south with rain. not a lot of thunderstorms. what happens overnight tonight as it moves off the east coast, this thing could really bomb out, really actually drop some snow from d.c. to philly, to new york city, even to southern new england. that happening overnight tonight into tomorrow. there's also the chance that it goes out to sea very quickly and leaves almost nothing. so this is the forecast with certainly a lot of uncertainty. temperature-wise, cold enough to snow. that's what's key to know here across the midwest and northeast. south warming back up. texas, back to the 70s. the west, big changes coming for the weekend. get ready for a lot of rain and cooler temperatures. that's your forecast. i'm jen carfagno. "worldwide exchange" continues after this.

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welcome back. a very good morning to you. political news today. the republican candidates for president getting ready to face off for yet another debate in detroit. meanwhile, both democratic candidates continue to fund raise and campaign. nbc's tracie potts reports on the latest. >> reporter: dr. ben carson, the first post-super tuesday casualty. his campaign confirms he will not be at tonight's debate, and his public schedule ends after a speech tomorrow. ted cruz tells carson supporters -- >> we welcome you on our team. >> i'm looking forward to that debate. are you looking forward to debate? >> reporter: march yo rubio is

already in michigan, hoping to put the brakes on donald trump. >> everyone get together so we can keep this front runner from winning and destroying the republican party. >> reporter: but efforts to stop him may be futile. john kasich is predicting a brokered convention. >> it would be likely we would have one of the most interesting times in cleveland that we've seen in modern political history. >> reporter: donald trump's tweeting about mitt romney's speech today. romney is expected to criticize trump. trump calls it another desperate move by the man who should have easily beaten barack obama. >> we're going to win here in michigan. >> reporter: meantime, the democrats are raising money. >> i need you here in new york. >> reporter: ready to take on whoever emerges from the other side. >> that was tracie potts reporting for us there. >> and the 2012 republican nominee mitt romney will be speaking today at 11:30. probably to tell republicans why they should not rally behind drump. >> and did you see donald trump's reply on twitter? he said no doubt we'll see the man that should have beaten

obama. >> and he spelled barack wrong. >> i didn't see that. >> when we come back, this morning's top stories and stocks for you to watch. plus, if you haven't noticed already, it's throwback thursday. today's tbt theme is boy bands. wilfred and i had a big fight over our favorite boy band. tell us what you want to hear at our spotify collaborative play list. find the link by liking us on facebook or following us on twitter. we're taking requests. mine already went past, hanson. wilfred's still to come. >> a couple big british boy bands coming up. see if you can recognize any of the tunes. back in a couple minutes.

good morning. wall street in wait and see mode. we'll tell you what investors want to hear before making their next bets. new this morning, lots of data on the state of the u.s. consumer. people shopping or dropping? and forget the black car. why uber is betting big on scooters. it's thursday, march 3rd, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. a very good morning. a particularly warm welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm sara eisen. day of the boy bands. on the agenda today, a ton of economic data. jobless claims today out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, expected to hold steady around 270,000.

also at 8:30 a.m., we get fourth quarter productivity, which is expected to be revised slightly lower with a forecast for a drop of 3.3%. then the monthly ism services index and january factory orders are out at 10:00 a.m. dallas fed president rob kaplan speaks about the economy and monetary policy this morning. and supermarket giant kroger reports earnings before the opening bell. after the bell, broadcom, h&r block and hp enterprise all reporting. that services number very important. last month it showed a decline and the entire market reacted. it's the biggest swath of the u.s. economy and could be a signal that the manufacturing weakness is spilling over into services. >> similarities there with the u.k. where service is very much the all-important number. we've seen that start to slide, including this morning. let's check in on global markets. first up, u.s. futures. we're pointing to a very slight positive open, as you can see. basically flat. the dow up by one point. we started march very strongly.

the 2nd of march yesterday, slightly stronger. looks like today will basically be flat. nonetheless, still a decent start to the month. let's have a look at european trade. a similar story over the last couple days. we're in slightly negative territory today. the dax flat. france is down. asia saw a little more positivity. the hong kong market was down, but we saw china and japan up. china so far reacting to that rrr cut as opposed to some data that's been coming out, which has been a little weak. nothing too crucial. a little bit soft. oil also been a factor. it's held on to the gains of last week. wti climbed 10% last week. it's flat today. 34.7, no change there. decent performance in all over the last two weeks. >> yesterday during the day, the intraday high was 36.39. that was the highest level since back in january.

things really do seem to be coming together better than the early part of the year. one point a lot of people are talking about, citigroup tracks economic surprises in this country. it's turned higher. it's now at the highest level, that index of tracking the releases, since november. which is a positive sign of momentum. hey, maybe we're not actually going into recession. we'll see what happens with the data today. but that's one to watch. >> lots of surprises during earnings season. big moves, both up and down, when stocks were reporting over this last quarter. crazy volatility off the back of it. >> absolutely. some stocks for you to watch today. sun edison is suspending the quarterly dividend on its preferred stocks. the move comes days after they delayed filing its annual report amid an internal probe into its finances. shares sliding more than 11% in extended hours trading.

semtech seeing first quarter earnings and revenue above analyst estimates, citing strong overall demand and bookings across several businesses. that's a good sign. those shares reacting nicely, up 13%. pure storage forecasting better than expected first quarter results. pure storage reporting positive free cash flow for the first time notably in its six-year history. >> another example of stocks with big moves in either direction off the back of results. >> and we could get more on the consumer front. a mixed read on the consumer front from retailers reporting this week. target, costco, and american eagle all making headlines. our landon dowdy is here this morning as always to round up some of these movers. good morning. >> good morning. that's right. here's your retail recap. target announcing plans to invest $2 billion to $2.5 billion in growth. the ceo highlighting plans in an exclusive interview on cnbc. >> we'll continue to invest in

technology. we'll continue to invest in supply chain. we're investing our stores, both remodeling and building new stores. obviously there's ongoing maintenance and repair. those are the really big buckets. >> and on the earnings front, costco reporting disappointing second quarter results. that's due to the strong dollar waking on the big box retailer as well as slow traffic. but american eagle saw sales rise 3% during the holiday quarter. that momentum should continue. the company offering an upbeat outlook for the current quarter. also in consumer news, kroger reporting fourth quarter results this morning. one i'm sure you're watching, as there could be deal talks. you being a cincinnati girl, you have that in common. >> it is a big cincinnati company. this will be the first time, landon, as you say, the company will be speaking to investors since reuters reported they were in the auction process for fresh market. we'll see if they make any comments. thank you. now for today's top trending stories. did you see this one?

>> another interesting one for uber. it's launching motorcycle hailing service in india. the company's partnering with india's ola to target commuters that are tired of sitting in traffic in cars. this is uber's second announcement. it launched a similar program in bangkok last week. this service has consiexisted f long time in london. >> isn't that an intimate thing? >> also, for someone that's quite big, you feel very exposed. not being a motor bike driver myself, i just didn't enjoy it. i imagine in places like india where traffic is crazy, it could catch on. >> absolutely. >> are you going to give it a go? >> i don't know. i think it's strange. >> get your leathers on, helmet. >> former google ceo eric schmitt will head a new pentagon advisory board. pretty interesting.

makes you think of the case right now in the fbi versus apple. that's not a military versus technology case, but if the private sector can work with the government on these kind of technological solutions to today's modern day problems, maybe that would be productive. >> maybe it would be. another google trending story for you. testing a digital wallet that lets you pay without taking your smartphone out of your pocket. the wallet uses bluetooth and wi-fi connections with location sensors to detect when someone is near a store with hands-free payment technology. >> just look at your face and you can pay. pretty incredible. >> if it comes through and works successfully. i don't think the apple pay, samsung pay, they're not that convenient yet. >> it's not mainstream. >> we'll see. great song in the background. >> is this yours? >> this is. >> i've never heard of them. >> i can't believe you've never heard of them. people get in touch. i'm sure americans must have heard it. this particular song reached

number five here. they were mainly a u.k. boy band. they did very well. >> wilfred frost, boy band enthusiast. >> anyway, whilst we continue to enjoy this song, we'll let you know what's coming up. must reads, an open letter from trump to national security leaders. and an interesting take on elections in iran. "worldwide exchange" will be back and back for good, as these guys' lyrics are saying, in a couple minutes. courtesy of jas and patricia thompson. this tv? margaret and tom lee. the championship game ball? that was sebastian diaz. good guy. and all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. their life savings is now my lifestyle. female announcer: don't let someone else live the life you're saving for. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov.

welcome back now to today's must read stories, the ones catching our attention this morning. my pick is an open letter published on the foreign policy site war on the rocks. it's from 50 conservative foreign policy experts that have banded together, condemning donald trump as an unfit person for the presidency. they wrote, quote, his vision of american influence and power in the world is wildly inconsistent and unmoored in principprincipl. he swings from isolationism to military intervention in the swing of one since. kind of unusual, saying they'll work energetically to prevent the election of donald trump. really gets at the problem and the question in the republican party right now. do you line up behind the presumptive nominee or do you band together and fight him? i would imagine it's going to differ across the republican party and will be very interesting to watch play out. >> the international community,

of all the areas of most concern, would be foreign policy. of course, one of the foreign policy issues front and center for whoever is the next president is issues in the middle east. switching focus to my must read from "the financial times," i've picked one on iran that says "the hands that rocked iran's hardliners." bringing into focus the elections that we saw in iran, the legislative elections we saw in iran over the weekend. they haven't had much focus this week. i wanted to bring them up when i read this piece. the author writing, the elections are a boost for hasan rouhani, the centrist president, and backed by his indication of a nuclear pursuit. probably one of the biggest benefits is the endorsement of the reformist government of rouha rouhani. whether or not westerners should trust the reformists as opposed to the hardlines, they're probably a better outcome than

under the previous government. still lots of questions about that particular deal. it has manifested the deal in supporting the reformists and rouhani. >> and it has opened up for business. i would imagine business leaders would point to election results like this as a reason for wanting to engage. >> since the deal, there's been lots of other issues, and they haven't stuck to certain terms. still lots of trust issues. this is one of the issues to focus on. all right. we're approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box" in the city. joe kernen joins us with a look at what's coming up. great start to march. the u.s. data has continued to be pretty good. >> yeah, good start after january and february. was sara kidding? it's not really boy band thursday, is it? >> it is. what's your favorite boy band, joe? most important question of the day. wilfred chose one i've never heard of. >> i chose two. take that and westlife. two huge british boy bands.

>> i might need help. >> i know what he's going to say. >> were the four tops boys? >> i've never heard of the four tops. give us a song, joe. >> you shouldn't answer any questions. to say you've never heard -- i was kidding. you've never heard of the four tops? >> i thought you were going to say n'sync because nick lachey is from cincinnati. >> i like the guy with the hair. harry styles. >> one direction. >> this is four tops, dude. will you do me a favor and say scooters again. >> scooters. >> you said it so good last time. they skipped a week on "downton abbey," and i haven't heard the way a lord would say -- or what's a marquis?

is that a real thing? >> i'm not a marquis, alas. i'm just mr. wilfred frost. i have no title, very sadly. >> one food for thought, sara, an those signatories. do you remember when the republican establishment was like absolutely sure it wasn't going to be trump and they're like, hey, look, buddy, you got to sign this thing here. if it's somebody else, you got to support them because you're not going to mount an independent run. >> and he didn't do it. >> now it's going to be him and it's like, wow, did we say that? suddenly nobody that signed it on the other side -- well, that was only good if you were the nominee. -- or if you weren't the nominee. if you are the nominee, that whole thing -- i love that. and we'll see what mitt romney says today. i hope it's not a how to. i know he's given a speech. i hope he's not giving any strategy tips on how to defeat the dems. anyway, back to the original question. the market seems to be once

again 90% correlated to oil, as you said. i also heard you mention that the chinese currency has stabilized a little. who knows what it is. for whatever reason, it's pretty solid so far this month. maybe march will, what is it, come in like -- >> lion? >> it came in like a lion, didn't it? you hear there's too many lions over there now because no one is allowed -- it's like, whoa, hands off, don't touch that thing. now there's like people running for their lives over there because the lions are everywhere because of that dentist. >> thank you, joe. >> great stuff. 11 minutes to go. lots more discussion in 11 minutes' time. jamie dimon tease there as well. we'll be hearing from him. next on "worldwide exchange," much more on markets. >> we're going to get you caught up and ready for the u.s. jobs report out tomorrow and a host of economic data out today. art hogan will be joining us with your wall street setup. "worldwide exchange" will be light back. your path to retirement... may not always be clear.

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. tomorrow's jobs report is the major market focus this week. we've got a lot of economic data ahead of that in the next 24 hours. joining us now, art hogan, chief market analyst. how much do you think the better data has been a catalyst for this stock market? >> yeah, sara, that's a great question. when you look back to the bottom of the market in february, i think part of that was predicated on the fact the economic data stream has gotten more constructive such that the narrative shifts from, you know, the slowing global economy has to drag us into a recession to we're probably in the same kind of economy 2% to 2.5% growth but not going into a recession. i think you pointed out in the last block that when you look last week at the flash pmi services number, it was in contraction. we need to see that not confirmed by the ism number

today. we need to see something -- it may be sequentially down but 53, 54 would be a great number there. we also get factory orders. that's going to be important. tomorrow, obviously, we want to see wage growth. we want to see the participation rate continue to tick up. >> art, are we getting a little complacent? yesterday was a little better. yes, february was a lot better in terms of market performance than january. but the average daily moves in february were still huge. there was a lot of underlying volatility, even though markets were slightly up by the end of the month. doesn't that highlight that there are huge, huge issues still under the surface? >> for sure, wilfred. i was thinking about the fact that, you know, that astronaut that just returned to earth after 340 days in space, you know, came back and said, oh, the s&p is exactly where it was when i left. nothing really happened here. when you really think about what we've gone through in this time frame, we've had more 1% moves in the s&p 500 this year than we do in an average year. here we are, you know, a couple

days into march. i think volatility continues to be the norm. i think what's gotten better, wilfred, is our perception of what china is doing. they seem to have a firmer grip on both stimulus and currency. if they stay steady with the currency moves they're doing versus what we saw last august, that helps a whole lot. i think it's that shock factor that's not in the market. also, i think we got in and out of earnings season pretty unscathed. if we can get support in the financials, which is imperative, if we pay a close eye on the transports and the economic data stream continues to improve modestly, i think this market can perhaps settle down into the summertime. i think volatility is going to be with us for a bit here. >> how are you recommending your clients hedge against the volatility? normally i would think you would say go to dividend stocks, income payers, but those valuations are pretty stretched here given what we've been seeing. >> yeah, sara. that's a great point. one of the things we've seen in this volatile market is a sponsorship of the dividend darlings, whether it's utilities

or the staples. if you look at the utilities in particular, that's a group that's gotten the most stretch. you have to be very careful there. i think there's probably a better option in the telcoms. i think the multiples are lower and the dividend yield higher. away from that, i think you want to look at the names that are leaders in technology. so technology got caught up in the momentum meltdown. i think there's some software names that you could do really well on, whether it's service now or salesforce.com. trading at reasonable multiples but also growing here. i think you can start getting back into technology. you want to be careful of the dividend darlings. if you have to be in utilities, pick one that hasn't had a big move. >> art, thank you so much for joining us this morning. much appreciated as ever. >> he has a 233,000 forecast for jobs tomorrow. that's pretty optimistic.

>> if we get that, would we be wondering if the fed could hike in march? >> they're only pricing in like a 12% chance. >> that was the story yesterday. decent data. not much performance. that fed debate slightly coming back into it. i don't anyone is expecting a hike in march. it's sort of on the table for later in the year. >> what are you watching today? >> i still think the u.s. dollar. i say the index as a whole. the dollar with that fed meeting, it's the key factor for me at the moment for general sentiment. >> when it comes to indicators that things are looking better, i've been watching copper. it's a the a three-month high. it's very internationally tied to the global economy, like china. things looking better. copper higher, oil higher. yen weaker. these trades are sort of all correlated. also want to correct myself. nick lachey, 98 degrees, not n'sync.

>> crucial point there. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up in a couple minutes' time. have a great morning. we were born 100 years ago into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪

good morning. a stealth rally on wall street it says here, but other people didn't notice. stocks rising to the best level in two months, but there are new de tests for the markets today, including a flood of economic data. and a fatal car crash. former chesapeake energy ceo aubrey mcclendon is dead just one day after being indicted by a federal grand jury. and republican presidential hopefuls face off in detroit tonight, but the field is a little smaller. and donald trump is facing mounting pressure from the party establishment. i think is kelly megyn going to

be there? march 3rd, 2016, and "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equity futures this hour. right now you'll see they're slightly in positive territory. dow futures up by about 12 points after an up day for the markets yesterday. a big day up the day before. s&p futures up by about two points and the nasdaq up just over 7.5. overseas in europe where the early trading has already started, there are some modest advances there as well. the dax is up by about just over 0.1%. the ftse up by about 0.4%. overnight in asia, new numbers showing momentum in china's service sector. business activity remaining in expansion mode but only at a modest pace.