>> correct. >> d minus. >> good job, son. good job with the d, because it was a d minus. thanks for watching "power lunch". >> "closing bell" starts in six seconds. ♪ >> that's what i'm talking about. >> hello, everybody, welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. >> i'm bill griffeth, brent is back to $40 a barrel and wti is at almost $38, numbers we haven't seen since the beginning of this year. some of the beaten down energy and commodity names are also seeing big gains in today's session. we'll look at the impact this could have on the broader market coming up. a lot of things are going on. >> look at double digit moves

today. wall bonuses, they could fall even further this year. we'll get you details on that. >> john skully is with us today and says donald trump is a master of perception. however, he says that donald could shift that strategy if he wins the republican nomination for president. john skully will be here live to explain that in a few minutes. >> we have a michigan one coming up on wednesday. >> and shake shack, will the chicken shack help the company deliver on wall street expectations, we'll have the earnings report after the bell. people love to point out burgers are delicious but stock trades at a high multiple. >> and playing top 40 for next couple hours here. let's start with the markets and this rebound in energy stocks. mike santoli has details.

>> we still have that pretty much in place, even though the s&p 500 is down marginally on the headline level, the energy stocks leading the way and exploration and production stocks up 6% and top stick in the s&p was actually at the highs of the day for crude oil as well. it seems you're getting a lot of people behind this idea that oil has bottomed and $20 oil or below crowd is quiet and hedge funds are backing this up. the way that operates into the stock market, not just energy stocks get better, high yield credit conditions and that has been something that's been lifting all of these low quality stocks heavily shorted stocks that were seen to be vulnerable. we saw this short squeeze rally and obvious level where you would think the s&p would back off a little bit. within it it seems the average stock still has more to go as the squeeze goes on. >> not just oil, iron ore and

copper has been on a tear. a lot of industrial metals do seem to be making a bit of a comeback. >> important point. absolutely. obviously the emerging markets have looked like they are trying to put in bottoms because the base commodities are doing that as well. we don't know if it is a matter of a true supply or sponsor too much betting against it or demand picking up a little bit. all of that stuff is unknowable because these were so beaten down ironore and related stocks were close to being zero for a while and now you have to buy. one other dynamic, if you owned a lot of risky junk bonds related to emerging market exposed companies, you probably try to hedge that by shorting the related stocks and indexes. when credit conditions get better you take off hedges because you hedge in a way you can't. it's hard to directly hedge a credit exposure in a listed security. >> and of course wednesday we

commemorate the 7th anniversary what we know as the haines bottom around here in march of 2009. we marvel at the strength of this market but showing stats, it's only number three in terms of the length of this bull market here. >> number three in terms of length. since 1928, number five in terms of the overall gains of this bull market. it's because the market has flattened out so much since 2014. we basically had time kind of erode the impressiveness of this bull market. if in fact it proves we're still in a bull market, something only you can declare in retrospect, it's been a grinding, very enduring bull market and kind of resilient in a lot of ways but not necessarily one for the record books when it domestics to the absolute magnitude of upside. >> we have seen major averages now turning a little bit lower, dow has given up to points and

last year's winners those fang stocks, apple, amazon, google seem to be struggling today. is there a rotation going on there? something broader happening in terms of what people think the earnings potential of those companies is? >> it's a stark rotation and it really is the other side of that trade where the low quality very risky stocks, smaller stocks are rallying. and essentially, the overowned growth names that were considered high quality in terms of financials have been sold and it's really up-ended a lot of typical hedge fund strategies and unwind continues. those are all of the big index stocks as well. >> you can see netflix down 6% and others down more than 3. pretty big downward moves today. see you next hour. >> he mentioned emerging markets, getting a lift across the metals and commodities, they are seeing signses of life

again. seema has details. >> a couple of contributors were contributing to this. from the portfolio managers that follow emerging markets closely, they'll tell you that the key catalyst is china, the national people's congress widely seen as the biggest political event of the year, kicked off this weekend where they dismissed any signs of economic slowdown announcing plans to widen the deficit and shut down excess capacity in the industrial sector. those helping lift commodity prices and sentiment across emerging markets and countries that are highly dependent on commodities like russia and brazil and south africa. more than 4% over the past week. also at play is the weakness in the u.s. dollar due to this expectation that the fed won't pursue an aggressive tightening cycle. that's sparking a reality but the question is how long will this last? there are still plenty of risks

out there. fundamental story hasn't changed. brazil is still in recession, russia dealing with high inflation and while those china worries seem to have eased for now, wall street is still betting on a further depreciation in its currency, the chinese yuan which could trigger further anxiety. emerging market bulls may not want to celebrate too soon. this is going to be a wait and see story here. >> as it is in a lot of places, seema, thanks so much. we kick things off with john manly at post nine. john brady from rj o'brien and peter costa, cnbc contributor also here with us here. peter, we gave you a lot to -- we set it up here with a lot of things going on right now. through it all, the dow is pretty quiet today. what's going on? >> i think the market has been, we were in an oversold condition early on first two months of this year.

then the last three weeks i thought we were starting to rebalance and start to go up. and market kind of go over bought then. i think we'll be in this continuous cycle of being a little oversold, a little overboard then the market will bounce off to whatever levels they are going to start settling in in. that's what we're going to see for a while. >> as we're thinking through the commodity rebounds we're seeing, talk to us about the weak u.s. dollar. john, it's a little bit strange that right after the data has come in a little bit stronger, you're seeing the dollar index down another quarter point and euro about $1.10, what do you think is happening here? >> you're right. you're exactly right. there seems to be something amiss, especially because we're about ready to enter a new march madness. that is we have a series of very important central bank meetings over the next two weeks after having said the g-20 meeting and number of these banks, specifically bank of japan and

ecb will take their policy settings further into negative territory. so what we should usually see, especially following a strong economic data set like last in the united states, see the dollar higher and see the euro currency and yen both softening and they are not. >> isn't it interesting though, john, that we just had two fed officials on our air today and they both said the same thing, they want to see oil move higher and that dollar moving lower or stabilize. that's the word they were using. they want to see it go lower to help improve the inflation prospects and that's exactly what's going on right now. >> but bill, their biggest challenge is trying to full meant this domestic situation against the backdrop of intense global deflationary pressures. see it in the eurozone and japan and china. what policy makers are saying, give us a little bit more time. the fed doesn't need to act now.

they've got plenty of runway to work with and let's see how things settle out in the spring and summer upon those three key deflationary pressure points, europe, japan and china. >> we've seen a sharp rebound off those february lows. but talk to us a little bit from here what this rally needs if it's going to keep going? >> the market needs to get expensive, it's fairly priced and sort of fairly priced high, two or three months ago. but i think they need earnings to take off. earnings have been flat over a year now. we need signs that earnings will begin to accelerate. i don't think the fed is going to tighten. they are smarter than i am. i don't think the market is expensive but you need something to make it expensive and need earnings to start lifting off again. >> at some point, john, the comps will get better, we had flat earnings for a while and they will look better because they have to, right? >> that's why i come to work every day. if you're patient enough, sooner or later, it will work.

next move is up. you still have the american consumer with better housing market and better jobs market and more money in their pockets. what do you think they are going to do? at some point they were going to do it. i can't tell you whether it's march, april, may or june. >> what are some levels you're watching here? >> bigger term, the 1865 level on s&p, you get back down there and time to back up truck and sell your grandmother's engagement ring, this will be the last time you'll see that for a very long time. that's where i would be back on buy side and if you look at 1995, 2000 on the s&p, i think that's probably a stopping point. i don't think it will stop there forever. i think eventually we'll see 2100 on the s&p, that's at least by the second half of the year. >> all right. thank you all. i'm surprised you still have your grandmother's engagement ring. see you guys later.

appreciate your thoughts on today's market. we have 50 minutes to go, transportses are holding in there, that's what we've been keeping our eyes on. the vix is elevated and small caps up six points, the nasdaq worst performance today, 2/3 of a percent. a lot of names -- >> apple and amazon are biggest decline. >> and netflix as well. >> one of new york city's most powerful economic engines starting to sputter a little bit. a special report on shrinking bonuses and profits and john sculley speaks about donald trump who is running a brilliant campaign.

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breaking news regarding share positive va. >> this would be about her announcing rer retirement, insaid she announced she has failed a drug test and taken full responsibility for this. it goes on to say these reports here that the medicine she was taking is not entirely clear what that medicine was but that this medicine is now on the worldwide anti-doping agency's banned list of products. she says, quote, i made a huge mistake, also for context here, this particular medicine, or pharmaceutical for ten years this medicine was not on the banned list at the wada or worldwide anti-doping agency. she was legally taking the medicine for the past ten years. she goes on to say that she thought many -- many thought she would be retiring, she would not make that kind of announcement

in a downtown los angeles hotel. this is maria sharapova, one of the most well known figures in the world of tennis and nike athlete. we have reached out to nike for a comment on maria sharapova and yet to hear back. we'll bring more details when we get it. she says she's now failed a drug test and that's the reason for this particular at least press conference type situation if you will, guys. >> okay, we don't know what it is. this is -- she took this test before the australian open and lost in the quarters to serena, i think it was. so that's past history. she's now dropped out of indian wells because of an injury. she's been playing with injuries for a long time and wonder if that had something to do with what she was taking. >> we're talking about athletes that put a lot of stress on their bodies and no secret that a lot of young athletes in places like golf, tennis and certainly places like football

or other contact sports can sustain these types of injuries that may shorten their careers but still, all of that speculation whether or not she was going to make some kind of large announcement about possibly retiring on a day when peyton manning, we already knew quaz going to announce his retirement swirled around the news cycle. this is now with regard to a failed drug test. and something that she's claimed responsibility for. we'll see if it ends up happening. it's interesting she also cleared up the fact if she was going to retire, she wouldn't announce it at some kind of venue like this. >> dom, just because she's saying she made a huge mistake. is it clear what the mistake is referring to? taking the substance or being under the belief it was okay or not okay? >> that's the clarifications that they put out there, this particular drug, whatever this substance was, didn't used to be on the anti-doping agency's prohibited list. that she took it during that time span. it's just recently in the past

few years or whatever, so that this drug has been put on this anti-doping prohibited list. perhaps it was the take full responsibility part with the idea she was not aware that this drug was on the anti-doping's list of prohibited substances. >> we need to hear from tennis officials to clear something up for us. >> we'll continue following it for you as well. looking at markets, the s&p and nasdaq are both under pressure, want to bring your attention to valeant which is spiking today. they'll update investors on the outlook for the year. the company delayed the release of numbers last month and said it was being investigated by the sec over its accounting practices and shares took a big hit. michael pearson resumed from

medical leave. falling after comments by the analyst there, 4.8 million net new domestic streaming subscribers for this year aggressive. itg sees that number closer to 4.4 million. and duncan brands is lower and guggenheim from neutral to buy. dunkin brands. >> wall street bonuses dropping for the second year in a row. mary thompson has more. >> with profits down 10.5%, average bonuses for wall street workers, dropped reflecting the market turmoil. this marks the second year in a row the average bonus for securities industry declined following big gains in 2012 and 2013. the numbers coming from an annual report from the new york state comptroller's office which looks at personal income tax

trends of nyse member firmgz. the bonus figures include cash payouts. now the downward trend expected to continue this year with a state forecasting a 2.5% decline in bonuses for 2016. new york of course keeps a very close eye on these trends as it's estimated securities related activities account for 7.5% of new york city's revenue and 17% of new york state's tax revenue. after a couple of flat years the report also noting employment in the industry ticked up for the second straight year. it's more likely tied to hiring and compliance related jobs rather than higher paying jobs and money managers. >> it's interesting because over the weekend and as sort of a lot of people are bracing themselves for getting these announcements and going forward, it's one thing if fewer a little bit younger, i guess, to have to deal with the number that's vastly different from what you

might have anticipated. i wonder again about people who might have been on wall street a couple of decades and really starting to see the trajectory of their earnings power lower, not just this year and last year but for the endefinite future. >> think what you're seeing and hear it from a number of people on wall street, they are discouraged with the payouts but the other question, where will they go to make this kind of money? certainly there is some decline that reflects the market sentiment, we know you're supposed to eat what you kill on wall street. if the markets are down, there's no reason to expect your bonus will go up. there's other factors in there and given that payouts have declined, there is i guess you could say a discouraged feeling among the veteran players and nevertheless they are limited opportunities for them elsewhere. >> that's so interesting. thank you very much. mary thompson. >> heading to the close, 40 minutes left in the trading

session. not a great deal of volatility except for energy. big rally there, another 5% gain for both wti and brent but the dow is up 29 points right now while the nasdaq goes the opposite direction. >> up next, former apple ceo john sculley joins in on donald trump's candidacy. >> shake shack and urban outfitters, numbers to look out for coming up on "closing bell."

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the gop presidential candidate, a hukster or liberal continues to rack up votes and joining us now in an exclusive jeff daniels -- it's the real john sculley joining us, former ceo of pepsi and at apple. good to see you again, welcome back. >> thank you, bill and kelly, nice to be with you. >> you know donald trump, went to school with him at wharton. you think this perception is this persona he adopted, this loose cannon that seems to be making things up as he goes along is all part of the strategy. why? >> let me give you a little back story. when i was at pepsi in the 1970s in the middle of the cold war, we learned that perception leads

reality. pepsi was a regional brand, outsold 10-1 throughout the southeast and southwest. coke was the reality. pepsi said we've got to own the perception. we developed a marketing campaign called a pepsi challenge. and we did end up owning perception. that's exactly what steve jobs asked me when we first started, got to know each other. how did you do it? steve became a master of perception and did it with all of the wonderful apple products. the perception was eventually fulfilled with the reality. what donald does, he understands just like steve jobs does, the master of perception. he can create something where people don't care about the facts, what they care about is that he's appealing to the disappearing middle class, people who feel they have been let down by the politicians and they'll give him a pass on the facts. >> sure, but is he being authentic to himself?

tell us about the donald trump you see campaigning today relative to the one you saw in business school? >> he's much smarter than the critics are giving him credit for. here's what i predict, i prediblgt if he is successful in getting the nomination for the republican party, that you'll see him pivot and he will change the perception for himself to be much more presidential. still won't worry about the facts but he'll come across much more as a leader and presidential than he's tried to. now he's been kind of rogue just to suck up the oxygen. look how he redefined the perception of jeb bush. he positioned bush so he never recovered. that's exactly what he's going to try to do to hillary clinton, try to turn her reality of the past into the perception of somebody that is going to be pretty damaged if she becomes president. >> but can he win over the leadership of the gop itself,

given the events of the last week? you've got mitt romney and john mccain going after him and telling people not to vote for him. can he win those people over if he does change the strategy as you predict? >> i'm not an expect on politics. what i do think will happen, if there isn't some reconciliation that you'll see people doing a split ballot. that could mean that the republicans could lose the congress, not the house, the house is pretty well locked in but they could lose the senate. my guess is that pragmatic, prag ma tix will overrule the bad feelings you have now. let's see how it plays out. i suspect it will be different than it's appearing today. >> what was he like in business school? i'm interested in the extent to which he's, you know, portraying an authentic version of himself, for getting that he's able to pick up on what the public wants

to hear, talk to us about the then versus now? >> well, i was a little older than donald, we weren't in business school exactly the same time but we were active with wharton after we graduated. donald is very, very smart. he gives the impression that he doesn't take time to study facts. i suspect he knows a lot more. >> yeah. >> before we let you go, what are you working on these days? last i saw you were traveling the world to put inexpensive cell phones into the emerging markets worlds out there, people that could not afford them otherwise. what are you doing in the health business? >> this is as exciting a business as i've ever been involved with. i'm working with a brilliant entrepreneur, we're building a company called rx advance. it's going to fundamentally change the entire way we think of pharmaceuticals and medication therapies. and i think it will be able to -- probably do 400 million

revenue this year, looking over a billion next year and billion pro forma by 2020 this is going to be a very big game changing business in health care and all about how you manage the work flow and the big data anl lit ticks about changing the way we look at and improving profitability for health care patients. it's pretty exciting, rx advance. >> good to see you, thanks john. >> thank you bill and kelly. >> john sculley there. >> the pentagon says a u.s. drone strike on saturday struck a training camp for al shab bab fighters killing more than 150 of those fighters. it said they were preparing a large scale attack likely against african or u.s. personnel. the strike hit the camp 120

miles north of mogadishu. sharapova has not competed since losing in the quarterfinals of the australian open. >> a few days ago i received a letter from the itf that i had failed a drug test at the australian open. i did fail the test and i take full responsibility for it. >> the u.s. and south korea beginning their annual defensive spring time military war games involving 300,000 south korean and 17,000 american troops, north korea calling the military drills an act of provocation. united continental says its president and ceo will return to work full-time later this month. he's seen meeting with employees last week at the st. louis airport. he suffered a heart attack six weeks after replace the ceo. he had a heart trans plant subsequently in january. that's the cnbc news update at

this hour. back to you. >> we'll see you next hour. >> still blows me away. a man had a heart transplant in january back to work running a major corporation in march. >> and jack vogle had a heart transplant many years ago, going strong. dow is up 52 points and s&p still barely lower and nasdaq is down 14. it's a special day for wall street, veteran art cashin, his take on these markets heading into the close. >> he's looking at me with a skeptical look on his face. a closer look at earnings numbers for shake shack and urban outfitters at the top of the hour. stay tuned. but grandma, we use charmin ultra soft

so we don't have to wad to get clean. charmin ultra soft gets you clean without the wasteful wadding. it has comfort cushions you can see that are softer... ... and more absorbent, and you can use up to 4 times less. enjoy the go with charmin. welcome back, market continues to move higher, dow is up 61 points on session.

components led by chevron up almost 3% on day. special note here on chevron, the ceo will speak with us tomorrow and we'll talk about if he thinks crude oil has hit a bottom. as we keep an eye on caterpillar, again leading the way. >> it's in comeback mode for sure. joining us right now, giant in his own ride, mr. arthur cashin from ubs financial services here. three weeks of gains and we're kind of holding steady, but oil continues to power higher. >> huge short positions and the energy companies and oil itself, i think oil may be reaching a little crest in the area and getting back to where it was back at the beginning of the year. we made a small spike around here. we give it a couple more days with the short positions in the market in general are enormous. it's very rare you see late in a

rally like this, multiple days like that heavy short coverings so that indicates a couple weeks worth of short positions out there. >> i wonder if you would put a lot on how skittish this market seems to be to different geo plig things, maybe it was the u.s. air strikes that killed soma somalis, why is that filtering through there? >> maybe some of those frustrated shorts, the data isn't necessarily that bad. so what do you reach out for? you speculate on things that are geo political and they are very, very tough to check out because they are happening often thousands of miles away without anybody there. and so they tend to move markets. sometimes accidentally, sometimes perhaps on purpose. >> you have an ecb meeting and bank of japan meeting and ad hoc opec meeting and the fed in the couple of weeks here.

what do you think will happen? >> it will bring more volatility. the big risk here is that draghi does not satisfy the expectations we're seeing, they move the currency around and fully loaded bazooka. he's getting some pushback on that committee. that may be a problem. >> tif the market is pricing in significant action out of the ecb and already at a dollar, it's hard to understand what he could come out with if the intention is to push the euro down. >> the germans are pushing back hard on the situation. he may not get the cooperation he wants here. >> before you go, it's a special day, happy birthday. >> thank you. >> from those of us here and we'd like to -- it's 5:00 in rio of here's a gentleman you recognize, came across the street to pour the emperor, the glass of the day here and since

it is after 5:00 in rio, cheers and gentlemen, ben willis. ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ happy birthday dear arthur ♪ happy birthday to you [ applause ] >> thank you. >> we wish you all the best. no one is more loved on the stock exchange than the man himself. >> enjoy. >> thank you very much. >> see you later. we'll come back with more "closing bell as we head towards the close of trade. we have earnings to tell you about and we'll get the latest on shake shack and -- >> urban outfitters. >> i knew that one as well. [plumber] i need to be where the pipes are.

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welcome back, it's the commodity the whole world has been watching, so in key to the moments in crude oil. touched the highest level since january. many people wondering, up 5%,

3785. >> stocks and oil both -- >> same day. >> same day jamie dimon bought all those shares. >> and uae said they were talking about freezing production. >> that's right. very same day. crazy how that works out. we have shake shack and global expansion made it a favorite with consumers. but some wall street watchers think urban outfitters may fare better than other retailers this quarter, both posting earnings after the bell tonight. kate rogers will join us and courtney reagan. kate, you first? >> the street is looking for adjusted eps of 7 cents per share when shake shack reports. the stock is trading at double its ipo just under $42 a share.

they do plan to expand to 450 locations that are domestic and company operated. although there's no specific time line on when. right now they have 50 in the u.s. and 36 abroad. investors will be looking to see how much u.s. and international locations they plan to open this year. also of interest will be the profit margins with higher beef prices and labor costs. they hiked prices in january to keep up with rising wages and any mention of the chicken shack sands witch will be of note. >> i'm getting hungry thinking about it. >> courtney, what about at urban outfitters? >> shares are higher by about 2% or so give or take ahead of the earnings release. analysts looking for earnings per share to come in at 56 cents. specialty retailer did preannounce q4 sales were flat over billion sales and comparable sales down 2%. fall quarter sales were about in line with holiday results for november and december with some

more weakness in january. that is expected compared to the year prior because of a lower level of clearance inventory to sell to consumers. urban outfitters direct to consumer sales continued to outpace store results which have suffered from weak traffic. kelly? >> courtney, thank you. we'll get both results shortly after the bell. appreciate it. 14 minutes to go. dow is up 57 and s&p barely positive, it's hugging that 2000 level. and knack dak down quarter percent. >> our next guest says look to the mortgage market and he'll explain why after this.

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>> the dow up 38 points and art cashin put the doers down then told us the imlance was $500 million to sell. we'll see if that has impact towards the end. also a member of the council of urban professionals, i know your specialty is fixed income and mortgage backed securities but overall, just in the whole market picture, was going on here do you think?

>> fortunately we've had a few weeks of stability, coming into the tail end of last year, starting this year, known factors increase in volatility and uncertainty. it looks like things have settled so to speak. as we look and about, next 6 to 12 months we think it's time investors look inward. what do they need from liquidity perspective. >> low hanging fruit has been picked? >> and volatility is hear to say. >> mortgage market is such a fascinating one. mortgage backed securities are demonized because of what happened with the crisis. now regulators themselves are starting to realize maybe it's interfering with people's ability to get mortgages and get the market functioning. that's what you're looking at in terms of investing and what kind of product is out there, do you think this asset class has a future? >> without a doubt. we believe the ongoing opportunity and legacy -- not agency, right, the mortgage

backed security that were created and issued coming into the crisis are one of the best sources of risk adjusted -- it has been an opportunity for years and we believe it will continue. >> what are they paying now? for people that are looking for income here, we always here go to the dividend paying stocks. what about an nbs? >> on nonagencyside. you can put together senior securities that have loss adjusted unlevered yield 6 too 6.5%. quite attractive -- >> on a risk scale, how does that compare with high yielding bonds? >> it's a great substitute. compliment for substitute of high yield. fundamental nature of mortgage backed securities and massive diverse fiction of underlying collateral and season s of the paper nine years into recovery, make it a great complimentary

substitute. >> how much competition is there for securities? are people starting to realize and trust them again or is it the case there's a lot of people chasing not a ton of product into the market? >> from a technical perspective, it supports the pricing in the market. the institutional community, the pension funds and banks, et cetera, have always been big buyers in the space. in a search for yield. the open tunistic, flooded the space in 2012, 2013. you have continued demand for these products in the face of frankly shrinking supply. they are not issuing -- >> that's what's so interesting about it. why isn't that happening? >> look, i think -- >> regulators? >> there's uncertainty around the regulatory landscape and banks got hamstrung in terms of how to continue to originate and

offload the securities. >> would they become more attractive as fed raises rates and they pay a little more? >> one of the interesting characters of this particular sector is they trade with very limited interest rate sensitivity. and so rates up, rates down, if you believe that the fed will raised, these assets and collateral backing the assets should continue to perform. >> we have to leave it, but could a lot of new supply of these mortgage backed securities and people making mortgages themselves, could that come from the nontraditional participants, we've seen big shops emerge in the last couple of years of people willing to make loans that banks cannot or won't do any more. do you need everybody to participate? >> we fully expect the alternative banking to step and fill the void. there's a growing demand for the ability to securityize this type of paper.

>> greg parsons. good to see you. >> appreciate the time. >> making the case for mortgage backed securities. we'll come back with a closing countdown with the dow up 47 points. >> after the bell, peyton manning calling it quits today, but more fortune may await him. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t. okay, so you launched your bank's app. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy?

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about three minutes left in the trading session with the dow up 39 points. welcome back. >> thank you, sir. >> the dow was up 96 points at the peak and down what 60 points i think at the lower session of the open this morning and we're going out with a gain of 37 of greater note, the continued rally in oil. when you left, where was oil trading? >> 28, right? >> here we are and brent actually hit $40 today but here it is 5.76% gain for wti. we have two earnings reports we mentioned those earlier, shake shack and urban outfitters out tonight. both are trading higher going into the close. welcome back. >> thank you, panama, went to the panama canal, 10 years old, everyone should see how it works but since i've been gone, we've had better than 20% rally in oil, probably up 30% since the

february 11th low. iron ore, we've been talking about, up 50% on hopes that maybe chinese demand will be stronger. there will be stimulus over there. copper has come back. it's hard to describe how bad -- cliff's natural, cliff's natural is almost a dollar a few days ago now that means essentially the market is betting the company will go out of business. look at the turnaround. $3.42, this is obviously low priced stock but it was heading for below a dollar a few days ago when i was leaving. you can see the rallies that we've had. there's cliff's natural. that's what i'm talking about, essentially a dollar, five trading sessions ago, now $3.42 and you can see this with other big names, not just in iron ore but the oil space. look at murphy in the exploration of production space, the same situation as well. murphy was $17 last week.

look at that $17 last week and now it's $28, $27 earlier in the day. that's back where it started back in december before they had the final collapse. >> so we've had a pretty big rally for equities and oil and it's deja vu all over again. look at the tremendous skepticism that accompanies those rallies right now. most people you talk to were say, well, this is nice, retracement of the losses we saw in january and february. >> that's the best thing about it the skepticism. everybody came in today and said we're not going to get any kind of rally in oil stocks anymore, we already had the rally. or in the metals names and it still keeps going indicating that people may not believe china will do a lot of stimulus successfully. traders who have been short these names are betting at least for the moment there has been an intermediate bottom. that's the way the stocks are

trading right now. >> and the commodities. >> thank you. [ bell ringing ] >> ringing the closing bell here at the big board at the nasdaq, and energy solutions, stay tuned for earnings in the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans and company. see you tomorrow, kel. [ applause ] >> thank you, welcome to "closing bell." it looks like we're going out 64 points higher at the close, closing at 17,071. look at the s&p 500, managing to eek out a gain just over 1 point. the nasdaq underperforming today. why those popular names from last year, facebook, amazon, google or alphabet not participating in the rally

across the broad market and nasdaq to 4708, despite the upward move in oil. investors are now getting set for a pair of big earnings in the consumer space. let's get to kate rogers and courtney reagan. hey, guys, we'll bring you those results as soon as they cross the wire. joining today's panel, mike santoli along with jj kin han and fast money trader guy adami is here. what are your thoughts on the kind of trading we're seeing? >> this is the third or fourth day where he was saying below the surface it was sneakily strong. and the energy names and continued short squeeze are the story lines but base beiically equal weighted s&p, it seems as if stocks in general he is sfes

specially smaller and riskier names became underowned and probably considered a buy in a mechanical way just because of risk management. >> did you hear anything new or different from stanley fisher brainard today? >> you heard some comments out of both stan fisher and lael brain ard and you heard we might be seeing the first stirring of inflation, maybe green chutes for 2016. brainard saying she's advocating to protecting and preserve the progress made so far that means lots of patience on policy increases so right now that's what you're seeing. how much more will this economy have to improve and how much do we need to see inflation firm up before the fed is willing to move? we're not expecting movement in march but i don't think a june rate hike is off the table. >> you mention first stirrings. if we see the first stirrings of

a market different from the prevailing trend this year, what do you think the new trend here would be? >> i think in terms to get this market going and to believe in the rally from 1810, the s&p rally basically 200 points in 16 or 17 trading sessions, i think you need the financials to firmly take a foothold and build on the gains we've seen. the oil move has been stupendous in a word. u.s. steel has doubled and the list goes on and on. i'm skeptical of those. but if the financials take a foot hold and bond market backs up somehow, maybe then it will take us to the next level which is through 2025 in the s&p. >> you mentioned that, guy, we should show everybody what happened with the u.s. treasury yield. the high for the 10-year was 1.92%. jj, i'm wondering how and

whether your clients are betting on financials doing better on a market rally generally speaking or what they seem to be doing? >> financials are always one of the main bris, tend to be very attractive to retail overall. apple when it goes over 100, people come to play it. you talk about the fang stocks and actually, it's interesting in that google with alphabet and amazon were both net buys last month. our clients were going towards stocks that had struggled for one reason or another and they went in to buy those and it's interesting they saw the higher dividend payers like at&t and verizon. >> and sold those. >> sold those that have traditionally been attractive but started buying them the first of the month. two or three months in a row. they went to 52-week highs and our client started selling them. >> what are people doing with a

lot of big --? it's interesting they were buyers of the online retailers and seller of the more traditional brick and mortars, they had a nice little month here. they use that to their advantage and longer term people are having trouble believing in the cost model. >> what do you make of it? >> what we're seeing in the market more broadly, driven by professional investors and hedge funds, a flight from quality. the most leveraged companies and smaller companies are being bought, whether in a forced way or not and ones that have been sold last year's winners which had been hit hard and quality in terms of the return on equity and basically the financial metrics you look at for quality. retail investors maybe not surprisingly saying these are brand-new companies and maybe we can have an opportunity to own more. >> guy, what looks attractive to you? what are your best plays for this environment? >> this some of these retail names and this might be long in the tooth.

in september, wednesday we were on and we talked about macy's being the kitchen sink. look what it's done since. macy's has finally gotten some of their mow joe back. the banks scare me. didn't trade well on what was an interesting take. i'm concerned there because i still think the bond market goes higher and rates go down. i think you're at a point where you want to look at these energy names and start to fade this move, specifically the move i think you've seen in exxon to 84 is worth a look on the short side. >> we do have the ceo of chevron on the program tomorrow so a great time to be asking him about some of this. i'm wondering how many of the fed members might be sighing with release given that the macro picture has improved. it's clear that they were sort of talking one situation that wasn't playing out for first part of the year. >> it might provide an interesting dilemma because

they've been so weary of this idea of the fed put being out in the markets, they believe no, we don't operate, but you could imagine a scenario where the labor market continues to firm and financial markets are still volatile driven by global uncertainty, et cetera. then what does the fed do? financial conditions are tighter but the macro economy looks good. in some ways that is a bigger challenge for them and may stir up more debate within the committee xbl it's interesting that the stock markets have firmed up and gotten more stable as market based expectations of what the fed might do also increased. 0.9%. >> we're still only 50% probability they are going to do something all the way out to november. >> if you look at fed fund rates so -- >> let me jump in with burger talk. shake shack's earnings are out. kate rogers, what did they say? >> it's a beat on the top and

bottom line, reporting ebf add justed eight cents on revenue of 51 million. the street was expecting 7 cents adjusted and the company reaffirming its full year outlook and guidance for 2016, expecting revenues of 237 to $242 million and and plans to open 13 new domestic shacks this year. the stock is moving lower by about 6.5 after rallying into the close. >> thank you. what do you think, guy? >> i'm going through now the numbers of eps and revenue are fine. if i heard kate right, 22% profit margin, that might be what's disappointing folks, store growth was pretty much in line. this is a ridiculous valuation and trades 105 times forward

earnings but the interest is interesting enough that you would see a queez. i think you're not seeing it because of profit margins being disappointing. >> this is a $92 stock the day after the overall market topped. it's expensive at half the price it traded at nine tore ten months ago. >> that's true. >> if you look, it's balanced from -- it went from i want to say $30 in january, trading 42 and change today. you've got a nice rally off what you just talked about a crazy sell-off and now it looks as though this is going to give the bears enough fodder to lean into it again. >> shares down almost 7%. we'll continue to watch them. comps were strong, 11% versus 7% consensus but the forward guidance for a profit margin of 22% plus or minus might have people raising their eyebrows. let's look at what's happening at urban outfitters. courtney. >> the share action is a little

different, shares higher by 6% or so after hours. urban outfitters did preannounce sales we new revenue with a 1.01 billion, about in line with expectations but 61 cents earnings per share versus 56 cents earnings per share that the analysts were looking for. that is a beat on the bottom line. ceo talks about the fact he's pleased with the margin improvement. we did know that but it is something analysts have longed on to as a bright spot. comparable sales down 2% but not as bad as other retailers this season. >> courtney, thank you. jj, this one going the other way, a pop of about 5% on these numbers. >> this is a brick and mortar type, we'll see if people come and sell at longer term as they've done with the other brick and mortars. >> a little bit of a flip side. a tremendously great concept, lots of expansion potential and urban outfitters been around a

long time. the stock is not expensive, 15 times this year's earnings, if they can have the momentum and did not cut guidance for the whole year. even if they make numbers they cut the full year and seemingly not the case here. >> again, it's one of these that people are struggling to categori categorize, is that enough to move the needle and put it in the bucket of growth stocks? >> they did diversify both among the urban outfitters and an throw poll gi and invested in a philadelphia restaurant group. they really are expanding the spectrum on what counts as a consumer good. >> the other side of the restaurant spectrum. let's go back to shape shack. the price has come down a lot as mike mentioned but this is a company that had to hit a high water mark to keep people interested. what else are you thinking here as you look at results. >> i'm thinking if they have a

conference call, i'm not sure if they do or not. i would be interested to hear in terms of profit margins where they went. last quarter, if i'm not mistaken, profit margins were 30.4%. so this 22% again, if i'm reading this correctly, is somewhat disappointing. the first thing i would like to hear, what's going on with margins? what has changed over the last three and a half months. >> fourth quarter it looks like their measure of prasting profit was 28.2% and they do have a call. a chance for people to ask them questions. >> we have to keep in mind, just because culturally it made a big splash, it's a small business, $50 million in revenue last quarter and adding 13 stores. they are not going to take over the world or industry. there's now a whole category called the better burger restaurants. >> people are so fickle, the second it's the hottest thing in the world -- >> backlash to the backlash. >> i was at an airport recently

and it was the only place to eat but to mike's point as soon as it becomes not the trendy place to eat it could be a little bit interesting to see what happens as we all know that's a tough business like the bar business. while it's trendy, it's the greatest place in the world. >> paid $18 for a burger at lunch today. i'm still -- >> down 8% on this report. thanks for joining us. good to see you, both. catch guy on fast money next hour talking to one of the wisest minds on wall street, goldman partner abby joseph cohen. oil now positive for the year after a big rally. is it only a matter of time before we see $50 oil again? or is there too much downside risk. kevin o'leary tells us who he thinks is the best presidential candidate for business and wall street and your money.

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oil on move again today. the highest level since early january. have we seen the bottom in oil prices? let's ask tom kloza. great to have you with us.

how do you read the next move in oil prices from here? >> i think the move is creep. we have had a spike from 26.05 and up about 45.5% from that. i think that's probably a little better than 50/50 for the lows for the year for wti and brent. the really big mover right now is money. big money is flowing into crude oil, particularly brent. we've never had this much, about 400 million barrels of length on speculative or fun side there. >> why brent, tom? >> i think it's brent because wti looks to be sort of penalized by the fact that the united states is the world's oil sponge. we have room for more crude oil and we're seeing it being stored in rail cars. so the rest of the world obviously has more growth than the united states there's a

willingness to chase brent more than there is to chase the wti benchmark. >> just to drill into that point about the money chasing this market, what you're saying is its investors, its speculators and hedge funds are betting this is a bottom. in other words as opposed on a physical side, not much has changed. >> not much has changed. the physical side looks ugly. you'll have more crude coming to market but i will tell you it's not just the big money and the hedge funds and big investment funds. it's the little ones too. they've been really wrong for a long time and in terms of chasing the etfs and what not. maybe this time they'll be okay. i think that the talk of a freeze might be enough to sort of offset the poor fundamental as for the next 45 or so days. i don't believe a freeze means much but sooner or later demand catches up to supply. it's late in the year but maybe the market ands it soon. >> tom, i'm wondering what you

see as the geo political repercussions of the drop in oil prices and if this rally that we're seeing might change the picture for a country like say venezuela which many believe might defate on its debt? >> i don't think it changes the calculus for venezuela or countries with much higher numbers. i think we'll creep higher from here. we'll be $50 plus a year from now but that's probably not enough for venezuela with the social problems and high debt they have there. their refining system which generates a lot of income in normal years is still a mess and they are not even able to pump some oil because it's so heavy, they don't have currency to go buy the things they need to dilute it to to pump it in the world market. >> it's in total shambles, that economy. i wonder if the u.s. and

gasoline price, people -- the way in which they benefited is different. we saw big plunges in this areas but not huge declines in others. what happens now if oil prices are moving any lower? >> still going to be a cheap year for gasoline. we think the national price will be 2.15 and 2.25, much cheaper than last year. there's a good chance next st. patrick's day day or next week, that it's going to be the cheapest since 2004. you'll be able to get more corn beef or guinness if it's your want. >> there's an interesting reinvolving credit report, maybe people are paying off credit cards. what can change the outcome in brent? you're saying people are betting on that price in particular moving higher -- >> what can change the outcome if -- let's say more iranian oil flows and everything goes splendidly in libya and other

parts of the world where it doesn't necessarily go splend splendidly and nigeria returns, enthusiasm and listen, beyond fundamentals, there's nothing that moves this market like money. that money may be very patient money. there's a lot of it chasing brent and we have to watch that in the next 60 days. >> tom, thank you so much for joining us, appreciate it. >> take care. >> coming up, republican presidential front-runner donald trump says he's the best candidate to fix our economy. who better to ask than mr. wonderful himself, shark tank's kevin o'leary next. seagate technology are the latest viks victims of cyber security. is any technology safe anymore? that's later on "the closing bell." and it affects each and every one of us. microsoft created the digital crimes unit to fight cyber-crime.

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we have a news alert. seema modi has the story. >> ibm's ceo fiscal year total compensation came in at $19.8 million versus $19.3 million in the fiscal year of 2014. slightly higher last year. keep an eye shares of ibm did lose 14% in the year of 2015. her compensation at 19.8 million in that year. back to you. >> thank you, they've got a little mojo lately. >> they have.

if you get paid according to how hard a job you have, this is justified. you can actually imagine the criticism if they dinged her on compensation as one of the most prominent female ceos. not a lot of incentive to low ball there. >> details on her compensation. it was another busy weekend for primaries and caucus and now the world focusing on tomorrow's big vote in michigan. john harwood joins us with the latest. >> we had a wild weekend of activity in the race for the white house, let's look at the republican side. donald trump won the two biggest contests in louisiana and kentucky. but ted cruz scored wins in kansas and maine and marco rubio brought through in puerto rico. on the democratic side, hillary clinton won business in louisiana but bernie sanders won caucus wins. for republicans it's one more chance to seriously interrupt donald trump's momentum but

these polling averages suggest it's an uphill climb. trump has a double digit lead from neighboring ohio just like hillary clinton does against bernie sanders. kelly. >> john, thank you. by the way, just briefly, tuesday's importance? markets just digesting it rolling along. >> they are definitely digesting it. i have a sense it's not getting clear but trump's momentum being slowed a little bit. maybe that will hinge on how the contests go on tuesday. i think it's okay for the market. i think they wanted to see a not battle undisputed in july. >> wall street is paying attention to the presidential race, who's better for wall street, they ask, donald trump or hillary clinton? and the article pinpointing clinton as most investor friendly of the two. kevin o'leary disagrees and

joins us now. why would the donald be better? >> in terms of what the constituency wants as an investor, i would like to see corporate taxes cleared up and tax code attacked. it looks like over the last 15 years the established politicians have done everything except that. i'm going to make the assumption that hillary will be more of the same and lately she's been doing it including last night, a lot of wall street bashing, which most people assume she'll pull away from because of what bernie is a saying. i'm going to speculate and i'm also putting on my own positions. i'm going to speculate the old crusty grants aren't going to work. i think the hillary brand is going to fail. as a result everything she put pressure on bioterk and pharma, i go long. >> those are same things donald trump tends to bash. >> i think the 15% corporate tax

target and cleanup of the tax act itself, if trump were to win would actually happen or at least have a higher probability and that is very friendly for america earnings and s&p in general. i think it takes the pressure off. other than just carried interest and hedge funds, trump is not that -- not putting that much pressure on financial system. by the wait, i'll speak on behalf of a floridian, i'm down here in miami and walking here asked somebody because i knew i would be talking to you about this, what they think about trump. without being told who they are voting for and she said to me, you know what, let's throw him in there for four years. everybody else has been absolute crap. let's give the guy a chance. that says it all, doesn't it? >> it speaks to the feeling of the populist. but you can't analyze trump's impact on wall street by looking at the desired level for the corporate tax rate. you have to look at the total tax package and something like

$9.5 trillion over the next decade but says he's not going to touch social security and medicare. according to the pax policy centers analysis, that would mean a 2.8 percentage hit to gdp. we're going at about 1 percentage point, that would mean the economy is in recession. i'm not sure how recession is good for stocks. >> i think what matters is a leader, any leader that would actually take on cleaning up the tax act after having been promised it for three years of different presidents. i have a feeling that in itself, the last administration focused on health care and obama care done and that got mixed reviews. i know my personal cost of massachusetts and florida, medicare, at least medicaid insurance is up 35%. my view it didn't work. i'd like to see somebody put on the top of the agenda tax policy. and that in itself is market friendly. your forecast about spending and

the economy's growth, everybody constituent will have to deal with that. i'm talking about the tonality and market's direction. he think trump makes it go north. >> kevin, maybe it's kind of forest for the trees problem examining the specifics of his policy proposals when the rest of the world seems relatively terrified at the prospect of trump becoming president here, whether justified or not, it seems not a popular thing. most of the sell-off in january and february was the rest of the world selling into our markets and in general it has a big influence. would that be an issue if he were president? >> i don't want to endorse his candidacy but i want to point something out, this guy over the last 20 years done a lot of restructuring and gets deals done with very, very interesting parties. i'm going to give him credit for that and also on a personal basis all of these people attacking him, look at his family. i know his son quite well. all of those kids have been

raised very, very well. i wish everybody that was as wealthy as trump could see that for his children that were entitled. i give credit looking at a man's family. i'm thinking like that woman in florida said to me, all of this stuff isn't working. let's throw him in there and he's hijacking the republican party. let him finish his work. >> put your money where your analysis is. >> thanks. >> kevin o'leary. >> time for a cnbc news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. a woman who survived serious injury in the boston marathon bombings was kiltd in a car crash in dubai. during the marathon shrapnel pierced her leg as she stood near the finish line and strangers carried her to safety. she was on a personal trip to dubai when the car accident happened. she was an exchange student. maria schaharapova failed a

drug test. he shaz not competed since losing in the quarterfinals of that tournament. >> i had been legally taking the medicine for the last ten years but on january 1st, the rules had changed and it became a prohibited substance, which i had not known. >> some breakfast sandwiches sold at starbucks are being recalled due to concerns they may contain traces of list tear ya, progressive gourmet is recalling stores from arkansas, texas and oklahoma they are marked best before august 27th, 2016. >> nancy reagan will be laid to rest at the reagan presidential library on friday after a private funeral. her body will lie in repose on wednesday and thursday for the public to pay tremendous inspect re -- respects.

kelly, back to you. >> sue her rar ra. e-mail phishing scams usually target individuals not companies but that's what happened. can peyton manning look forward to the deals that made michael jordan one of the richest former athletes. we'll find out in a bit. every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. because you can't build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday.

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welcome back. here's a look how we finished today on wall street. the dow was up 67 points, a lot of fluctuation but a gain of .4. and nasdaq was weaker by 8. netflix was having a bad day, down about 6% and facebook and google and amazon, the kind of names that were previously high flyers. going in two different directions, shake shack down 6% and urban outfitters up 5.5%. seagate and apple are the latest victim of hackers gone while.

a phishing e-mail tricked an employee to disclosing information including social security numbers and apple mac users have been targeted for first time. stealing data and charging owners a fee to get it back. is anything safe anymore, chief technology officer at rsa. good to have you with us. what do you make of the latest, especially this targeting of apple mac users? >> for the longest time people thought apple were like hallowed groubd. it is as vulnerable as anything else. as the market share increases, we can expect to see a commence surratt increase in the types of attacks on apple device. >> like microsoft attacks or windows attacks that might common place a decade ago. >> it makes business senz r sense for the attacker, part of

a cyber criminal enterprise rather than a legitimate one. we can't take anything for granted, we have to think about how we protect ourselves and how do we respond and gain visibility. that's what we focus on at rsa. >> i wonder whether this means -- remember back when this became such a big problem for pc and had you to down also load, buy the little disks and run the checks all the time. >> you have that one kinds of distributed responsibility for figuring this out with consumers and individual pc owners but then you have another storyline it was becoming a board level discussion in terms of having a more systemic response. i don't know which is more important. >> is the nature of a threat changing? who are the perpetrators here? are you seeing that shift as the threat to our national security changes? >> absolutely. we're seeing attackers get sophisticated across the board. 50 years ago this was maybe a kid in her mother's basement.

five to ten years it became cyber criminal enterprise and organized crime. now we see nation state level attacks, attacks far more sophistication than ever in the past. we've got to realize this is not just about individuals, there's a true hacker industrial complex out there that we've got to be cognizant of. >> is this sophisticated. think of seagate which got the social security numbers of its employees in the wrong hands, they used an old tried and true method of tricking an employee into opening an e-mail. nothing sophisticated about that. >> you're absolutely right. the vast majority of attacks are very simple. they will be able to get in the gate if somebody in the inside leaves it open and we're seeing that here. most attacks don't lead to any type of sophisticated measure but work on the fact that somebody at the end user might make a mistake and that's what happens in this particular case. >> before we let you go, as somebody who has a mac book,

what do i need to do being aware of this vulnerability? when should i personally do? i don't think the answer is buy an rsa product. >> you have to express caution in everything do you. >> what does that mean? >> think whenever you see an e-mail from anybody or any type of directive, if you think it might be compromising your security, don't follow it and reduce your security. take a measure of caution and have level of street smarts when it comes to using technology and don't expect things to feel safe all the time. >> i struggle with street smarts in the real world. i'll do my best. really appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >> peyton manning finishing his career as a champion. the broncos quarterback announcing his retirement earlier today. what's next for the football star is later. wall street under fire at last night's democratic debate. up next, how lake elawmakers ar teaming up to change a big tax loophole. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. sales event is on.

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welcome back. activist groups such as patriotic millionaireser changing forces to change the special tax treatment. >> if you look at the campaign to kill carried interest loophole it has moved from washington to albany. activists gathered to hold a press conference for a state level for the benefits after years of failed efforts in washington. the hedge clippers, a group

backed by teachers union and patriotic millionaires backed a bill by assemblymen. hedge funds and private equity typically collect the 2% management fee and 20% carried interest or share profits. the carried interest is currently taxed as a capital gain at 20% but many say look, it's compensation and should be taxed as ordinary income at 39.6%. now the hedge clippers say they are starting in new york but plan to take their campaign national to pressure congress to change the law. their plan would raise 3.7 billion a year just for new york but treasury said that's a little optimistic, it would generate an average of 1.8 billion a year over ten years nationwide. almost all of the candidates from both candidates called for limited carried interest but some say the tax would also hurt pension funds and discourage

investment which is why after four proposals in congress, we've yet to see any fix to this quote, loophole. >> why do we think this time would be different? even for the tristate area, already moving to florida. you know? >> if they really wanted to fix a hedge fund or private equity loophole, the hedge fund up a company in the caymans and that's more money than $1.8 billion a year. they are not going to let it go. it's become very symbolic for hillary clinton and bernie sanders to say this is a group of lobbyists who have paid washington to give them a special tax treatment. affects so few people yet there's very little rationale for it. >> very little rationale based on i guess the risk that these partners actually take in order to make -- >> there's no downside risk. i agree with using the tax code to incentivize risk taking and investment, they get the upside and there is no downside if they don't make money. >> speaking of the strategy, it's so interesting they are

docking this idea of taking it to the states after failing in washington chgs the same strategy we saw around the minimum wage, which was congress is not passing increase in minimum wage. >> it's a little silly, it's a federal, it's a federal rule. so there's no state law -- what they are going to do is take back income that would be the equivalent of what the federal income would bring to new york state. it's a very round about way. you can't really solve a federal income tax problem at the state level. >> mitt romney symbolic in many ways, trying to use a candidate or something to make that the wedge to get rid of the issue. but this still persists. what do you think the implications would be if it was double raise in the income tax rate in the. >> i don't think there would be much impact on funds and i don't think it would change the way private equity funds investor the way hedge funds -- a lot of private equity and hedge funds

are compensation programs as much as they are investment strategies and i think this is an odd sort of leftover of the tax code that i don't think it would have much impact but the lobbiests say it would be a dramatic impact to change the ability companies operate and to invest. >> might be one more hit, some already struggling to justify -- >> without a doubt. the public and politicians want a scalp here -- >> it's not that much money. >> what are the turn expectations to feed into how much revenue it would be? >> they would find another way around it, we'll find another loophole. >> move everybody to the kay mans. >> there's one manning brother left in the nfl now that peyton announced his retirement. what could be in store for the qb now he's off the football field. >> john watson will join me to talk energy prices and consolidation across the sector. don't miss it.

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there's just something about 18 years. 18 is a good number, and today i retire from pro football. >> wow. that was denver broncos

quarterback peyton manning announcing his retirement earlier today. the super bowl champion already has plenty of endorsement deals. the question is can he reach the kind of post-career success that say michael jordan of the nba has had? a look at that now. >> reporter: this will be the big question, right, because we know jordan has made far more money in his post-playing career than he ever did on the court so if you look at the numbers between manning and jordan. manning has made about a quarter billion dollars on the field. >> wow. >> jordan made less than 100 million. obviously that was 20 years, you would have to adjust for inflation and higher salary caps and, still, you get the point. in total earnings this year jordan has made $100 million. he makes 100 million every year and manning makes a quarter of that so if you look at their net worth jordan is a true billionaire. could have been a robert frank about carried interest and billionaires. jordan has reached that kind of level. the question is can manning get there because if you look at jordan's post-playing career, what has he done? he's had a show business.

that's where all the money. >> seen a lot of hanes commercial. >> reporter: endorsements the third pillar of his portfolio but that jordan brand, the shoes. that's where all the money is really coming in, and then he has enough money to buy the charlotte hornets so if you think about all three of the things is manning really going to be able to replicate that, doesn't have his own team or shoe lane but does have 20 papa john franchises and a lot of companies he does endorses for. there are strengths and weaknesses. he can be a gm, broadcaster, things that jordan was not. >> what do you think, mike? >> the big question is jordan really has a quasi-ownership stake in a piece of nike. >> peyton manning has a quasi-ownership take in papa john's but i probably would rather have nike than papa john. >> it's a little less global than the nike brand. >> jordan is such a one-off in that respect. >> yeah. >> he didn't buy outright with

his own checkbook the charlotte hornets but with the team network it gets you a long way in terms of your networth. >> peyton manning's dad has a restaurant in new orleans where he's from where i'm from as well and it's called hamanning restaurant and harrods. there's a dilemma, do i go to the super bowl or watch the parade? i went to baucus ball where they were playing the super bowl on the big screen and it was a party. >> jordan was a one-off. new orleans residents, another one-off that's thard to replicate. >> maria sharp v.a., thought her announcement was about retirement and instead it was about doping. she's had a big deal with nike going on. i just wonder, she's one of the highest earning tennis players. >> the number one. makes more of serena outside the court. >> what happens after this announcement, do you think in. >> it's tricky because she has

endorsement deals and she has her own business sugarpova selling candy whereas peyton manning is not selling his own product. we've seen people have controversies. jordan has had controversies. manning obviously had that hgh thing that's not really clear, the university of tennessee "ha'aretz"ment thing. all these people, look at every single number one player in any sport they have all had an issue, barry bonds, mark mcgwire, kobe bryant, everybody has had something. >> her endorsements outside of the game earnings have not necessarily been correlated with her performance on the court. she's been a good player, of course, but it's already been over and above. >> there's a looks factor. >> the beauty premium. >> we'll leave it there. >> shake shack under attack. a look at those numbers when we come back on the "closing bell."

who do you work for? your boss? yourself? your family? our financial advisors are free to realize a plan to fit your family's unique needs. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird. well, bird's definitely the word when it comes to the company's earning. the stock is down about 9% on

that report and we'll see if chicken chak does at least come up on the conference call, guys, which starts at the top of the hour. >> i actually tried it when they launched it. it's pretty good but that's shake shack's problems, when i drive past a shake shack i'm going to stop to get the new chicken sandwich. >> how does it compare to the double down? that's the real question here. >> i don't even know what chain you're referring to. >> but, by the way, one thing they could try to do is capitalize the chick-fil-a people on a sunday but they are so small relative. >> doesn't scale yet. >> compared to the national franchises. keep an eye on that one and turning our attention to markets generally. some key cat lifts potentially coming up here. getting into the fed time of year, but their ecb meeting first. >> ecb meeting, it's big. they will try to at least talk the markets into some state of comfort that they will do more. i don't know if that helps the market at this level. we've been ramping straight up

and to some degree i think that's baked in >> the stimulus is not a question but how much? will we see another disappointment as we saw a few cycles ago, right? i'm paying attention obviously to the fed's meeting next week. fomc meeting with a press conference, and i will be there asking questions. >> by the way, an interesting piece in the journal going again through the fed's different capabilities now and whether they are constitutionally allowed. the scrutiny on this institution will continue to grow, it seems, whether it's because of the campaign trail, you know. it can come from any and all number of directions. >> you're talking about negative rates is what i'm asking about. stanley fisher once reiterated they are very cautious about the idea of going into negative territory. there is some question about the legality of it for the fed but, you know, they are very clearly not there yet, right? i mean, right now we're talking again, rate hike in june and not off the table so this idea that we'll have to go quite that far down the path to monetary stimulus is just really too soon to say. >> it's europe's problem. any chance that they go next

week? >> i think they will try to resist that. does the fed go next week? >> don't want to surprise the markets at that rate. >> thanks for joining that. >> that does it for us on "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site, take a seat, guy. >> i'm sitting. >> overlooking "new york times" times square. traders tim seymour, steve grasso, dan naptan and guy adami. bad news for apple from a new hack to a new fine and does all the noise make the stock untouchable? the details and are the f. a n.g. stocks on the brink of collapse and why the biggest momentum names could soon be out of steam and when she sauks, wall street listens. one of the best minds on wall street, abby joseph cohen is here with a major market call. the fifth straight day of gains to the dow and s&p thankso