good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and brian sullivan. joe is off, guess what, today is national pi day, that's right, 3.14. what would pie be without the nation's largest pie makers, pizza hut. >> they are sending one over? >> what's that? >> i want them to send one over. >> pizza pie. looking for pies. >> is that why joe is off? is that why i had to come in, national pi day? >> could be. >> the markets are still waiting for the next fed decision. that meeting picks up tomorrow, wraps up wednesday with fed chair janet yellen holding a news conference. after four weeks of gains, dow

futures down 35 points. s&p futures up close to 6. nasdaq down by close to 11. if you take a look at what's been happening in early trade, you do see green across the board. angela merkel was dealt with a setback with election there's. the dax is up by 1.5%. cac up by .33. ftse, .50%. and bank of japan with a meeting today. >> and here are some of the big stories that we are watching for you on this monday morning, the u.s. condemning the latest attack in turkey. leaving 37 dead, 125 injured. officials say a car bomb targeted civilians the a bus stop. meantime here in the united states, there are multiple

injuries after an amtrak trail derailed in kansas. at least five cars jumped the tracks. the train was headed from l.a. to chicago. there were 142 passengers and crew on board. and flooding in louisiana and mississippi claiming at least four lives and forcing thousands to leave their homes. flood warnings remain in effect across much of the region as rivers are at dangerously high levels. a couple stocks to watch. united airlines, now opposing giving oscar munoz official role as chairman after coming back from medical leave. heart attack -- >> heart transplant. michael kors could continue to rally as the retailer continues to expand in asia and europe and expanding to menswear, according to barrons.

barrons also writing that air conditioner making ingersoll rand could rally. this after dispute crude weighing on that. blackstone reportedly agreeing to sell strategic hotels and resorts for $6.5 billion. blackstone completed its acquisition of strategic hotels less than a years ago. and bought new york's waldorf astoria for $2 billion last february. >> is that crazy to you? blackstone just bought this past year and then they're buying it for this crazy premium. remember when japan came to new york we all thought they were buying up new york? >> it's a little bit different situation. they're looking to get money out of china as fast as they possibly can. >> correct, but they're looking to push it up. >> ritz-carlton, dana point. ritz-carlton, jackson hole. this is -- you look at what they're buying.

i've got a 2010 jeep wrangler, okay, if you want to the pay me 40 grand for it, it's yours right now, andrew. blackstone may have just bought it and said, hey, you want to come here and take it for this premium, sold to you. >> yeah. you know when blackstone wants to sell, i don't know if that's a good deal. when you were driving around this weekend, you might have noticed that gas prices are not as low as they used to be. aaa gas prices jumped to $1.93 a gallon. that's up three cents in the past month. oil prices managed to crime but it's down. we've got no economic data to watch for, but plenty of reports in the week ahead. here's what we've got. on tuesday, got to look for february retail sales, pmi, the monthly home builders survey and the fed begins, two-day policy

meeting. wednesday, federal cpi and housing starts and then the fed's decision. what kind of economic forecasts on janet yellens news conference. thursday, jobless claims and the march philly fed survey. over the weekend, angela merkel's party suffered a big loss. voters protesting the government's open refugee policy but did not bode well for what's going to come to her tenure perhaps next year. a wild weekend on the campaign trail here in the united states. ahead of tomorrow's mega tuesday. a lot of brawls, some bravado and plenty of blame to go around, too. one day to go before tomorrow's primaries, donald trump holds a big lead in florida, he trails to governor john kasich. joining us to talk about the week ahead in politics is

benefit white is chief contributor. >> mega tuesday, i haven't heard it described as mega tuesday. >> it really is because if donald trump wins ohio and florida, basically puts him on a glide trajectory to make sure that he gets -- what is it, 1237. >> which he says is a random number which in fact is a majority of the delegates. it's not a random number. but it's critical on tuesday. the trump movement wants to get on with florida. the rubio campaign said they're hoping to hold out in florida. and the big one is john kasich with ohio. if trump splits those 12 states can still get to 1237. >> first of all, the polls how much do we trust? >> a lot of them weigh out. the republican side, they've been a little bit closer but not always dead-on.

so there's always a chance for surprises. could potentially get a surprise in florida. the polls are so consistently close it would be a shocker if he were to lose florida. and rubio to win it part of machinery is the governor in ohio. and a couple other states going, trump could win all of those, cruz could surprise people and win in illinois. there's some other things to watch. >> what about all the chaos, the rallies, the fights, massive amounts of violence? >> yeah, you see there on the screen, obviously very chaotic. you've seen republican candidate including marco rubio shaking on this stuff saying they're wavering on whether they can support trump. the question is how much is trump to blame for the violence in these rallies. he does not speak out against

it. sometimes, he encourages it, says to go ahead and punch it and he'll pay the legal fees. >> is he still going to stand by that? >> i thought he said he want going to pay -- >> it's the same thing as saying if you come to my rally, if you punch people out -- >> i remember he said that about the tomatoes about a month ago. >> he's not willing to say don't do this, is this bad for me, the country, stop it. he won't do it. the protesters when they show up, maybe there's blame, there. it's one thing to come out and peacefully protest but another to shut it down. on the flip side, chicago police said never told them to not hold a rally. >> conceivably, it's pretty combustible. the question is do we get more combustible with these things. you've seen bernie sanders say

that rubio is right to worry that somebody is going to get killed. >> does it impact the vote, yeah, the bennie sanders and hillary clinton camp says it's crazy. sure but that's not changing votes. do trump supporters look at this and say this is crazy? >> i don't think so. they come out to the rallies in part because they are so crazy. it's like a wwe match. they like that aggression. i don't think it turns the numbers down. i think what it might do is continue to keep that cap on his support. 35, to 40%. if you turn people off, people are not this super angry base that he has. they see this and say, whoa, is this the guy you want running the country? >> look at the numbers on the screen. kasich at 33, cruz, 27, rubio, 5%. >> that's in ohio. >> okay. collectively, those are more than trump.

cruz and rubio are looking at each other saying it's time for to you drop out. is there a chance that they drop out in the next 24 hours and put their support behind somebody? >> i doubt it. it's hard to make a chase moving forward if you can't make your home state. >> if rubio does end up dropping out after florida, that could go to florida. but if he dropped out before florida, that would help -- >> somebody else. >> cruz or somebody. but they're not willing to do it until they know they're dead politically. >> if trump wins ohio and florida, then it doesn't matter. >> no i'm saying, they'd have to drop out today. >> there's an argument that rubio supporters make, even if rubio loses florida, he should stay in, as delegates stay pledge to him at a convention, he's viable at a convention if it's brokered. >> they would not be up for grabs for trump start out. >> in your morning money this

morning, you're the first person i've seen actually try to correlate the market volatility with the elections. most people have not really done that thus far. sort of focused on it but not really paying attention to it. do you think there's something else going on? >> i think there is. you can't tie it directly. i've talked to strategists about it, hedge fund managers there is an up certainty premium in-n there, on the left and right there was the assumption that hillary clinton was a lock for the democratic nomination, less so now after the loss in michigan. has she said that elizabeth warner is going to pick my cabinet members. if trump is president, how does he govern, some in corporate america not spending cash and marketing -- political uncertainty is part of that. >> i think, ben, i'm sure you guys get it and when people talk to you at cocktail parties and say why is the market going

nuts, i say, well there is congress. >> yeah, there is congress. >> weird part is we're looking at congress as the grown-up in the room. that's how bad things have gotten. congress is the steady hand. no matter who gets in the white house -- bernie sanders programs or trump's programs or whoever it is, congress is going to -- no, no, no. >> counter to that is there are a certain number of things that wall street really wants to see happen. they want to see tax reform, long-term debt reduction. if you have congress as maybe a blockade to getting 11 million people out of the country, some of the crazier stuff, that's one thing. but it's another thing to say we're glowing to have more gridlock, we're not going to get any of this stuff done. that's more volatility, more uncertainty in markets if you have a president and gridlock congress, what comes out of washington? nothing. that's not great. >> we'll have more certainty. if we have more certainty, let's

say, on wednesday, after we see things, will that calm things down or not? >> if donald trump is the clear nominee, if he then starts to move to the center to back up some of the more radical stuff, we've heard the comments about radicalization, then you get wall street saying, okay, he's not going to win the general election, but if he did -- >> you also point out there are more people on wall street that prefer donald trump before ted cruz. >> that's right. congress dislikes him so much even his own party. how does he come up with an agenda to get through congress, but republicans would like to see infrastructure, tax reform, all of that stuff, if it's not ted cruz. it's not a great option on the republican side maybe they hold their notion and go clinton. >> the president goes to austin

on friday and spoke about the iphone and fbi. but at the same time, tried to appeal to the tech community. i couldn't understand -- he was trying to thread his sort of very interesting needle claiming what's in the phone, you don't want everyone to have their own swiss bank account. that's what he said would happen. but at the same time he was praising the tech community. >> right. i don't know how you thread that needle. you can understand his argument which is you shouldn't create a device that thwarts law enforcement. but in the same time, the tech community very much in favor of privacy and intellectual property. i don't know it's if very effective, we just need to say, look, we need this data. give up the data. >> and whatsapp creating that over the weekend.

>> a "60 minutes" piece as well. >> check it out. >> after i watch billions. >> specifically -- >> it's on a little late for this group. >> around the terrorist attack in paris, and actually the software that was used for that. check it out. >> thank you. appreciate it. when we come back, the countdown is officially on. the markets getting ready for the next scheduled meeting of the janet yellen news conference. will this put the bulls in a holding pattern? plus, several big hotel giants about to make news in cuba. first this day in history.

hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page

and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. several prominent american companies are looking to complete new deals in cuba, that's ahead of president obama's planned visit next week. hotel chains marriott and starwood with the possibility of combining. at&t also said to be in discussions about a mobile telecommunications agreement in

cuba though no deal has been reached. i read a great story about how all of these companies for the last 20 years, they've had all of these sticksters and different people sort of setting up waiting to pounce. >> a head start. >> yeah, you had to have it a little organized. i don't know how organized everyone will be. let's get a check on the markets this morning. again, we saw four weeks in a row of gains for the markets, the major markets at leaf for the dow and s&p. you can see there's a little giveback, a few red arrows. the dow futures down 38 points. obviously a big meets with the foc meeting. and a decision coming on wednesday. s&p decisions down by 7 and nasdaq down by 13.5. germany is the biggest advance over the major markets up by 4%. ftse up close to .5%. oil prices after a significant

rally. wti is down 1.8%. brent is 39.74. let's take a look at the treasury market. the 1.964%. that's the highest yield we've seen in quite a while for the ten-year. take a look at where the dollar stands. it's up against the euro. the euro sitting relatively high at 1.1119. and gold prices right now look like they're down slightly, $1,258.97 an ounce. don't look now but the dow jones industrial average is getting positive for the year, oil moving higher and maybe people realize that the world is not -- shh -- it. joining us is research

management director and paul hickey. i hope even got my tongue in cheek. two months ago, everything was crashing, sell the house, sell the car, the kids, i'm never coming home. i hope you got that reference as well. what does this rally mean for the stock market? >> i think we've gotten over a pretty big growth scare. with the markets with spillover effects in u.s. and europe. at the same time, we've come nearly full circle after the correction. it's going to be much more difficult to get further gains. we don't think there's going to be that much growth in terms of earnings per share. and multiple earnings are pretty much fair right now. >> i love what you're saying stephen, because we have been

focused on the fed, the ecb, oil, china. are you saying that earnings still matter? >> earnings do matter. and that's basically what's going to be determining yoe ini medium-term trends. i do think the more aggressive stance by some of the central banks outside of the u.s. matter as well, as well as the fed will maintain its projections. >> paushlgsl, i like to be posi on a monday morning, when you look at the valuation of the market it does not look like expected? >> yeah. it's not cheap, so really -- >> not cheap, that's pretty doggone expensive. >> it's pretty doggone expensive. the market by any measure you measure it it above average valuations. it's hard to find a metric where we're looking at a cheap market. that doesn't mean the market

can't go higher it just means you have sights imminent here. while oil has rallied and that's conducive for the market, the problem is we've come full circle and the fed, that's going to be an issue this week. a month ago, fed hiking was out of the question for the year. there were some measures that even had a greater likelihood than a cut. now we're back to 50/50 in june, and 50/50 in july. we've seen some uptick. >> is there a good thing or bad thing? we want the economy to be improving? >> it's a counterbalance here. oil stabilizing it good. two biggest forces at the beginning of the year are now the oil and the fed. the oil has been positive. and the fed has been positive as well. now when we get to this coming wednesday we're going to start focusing on the fed again. whenever we do see these rate

hikes by themselves they're not necessarily a bad thing. all else equal, it's better to have rate where is they are than higher. >> you know, stephen, it's interesting there's a general team that low oil is generally good because gas prices are low and that's going to save the economy. why is it that oil moving high say are positive? >> i think what we've seen in these cycles that direct effects of oil prices have been health right away. you've had the effect on energy sector and investments and all on the related industries. whereas, the positive is something which goes through the consumer. it's been a very tempting reaction. we're still seeing the positive correlation. >> when does that -- at $60 is that we're no longer cheering it and hoping it goes higher? >> i think it would help to get more normalized level where is we know in the longer term we can balance the supply and demand. clearly as that goes, that's not

the case. >> i mean, when you have average -- right now, we're at extremely below average prices. if you get below $60 a barrel, people will start getting worried here. but the benefit of higher oil right now, we've seen stabilization in the high yield market. the high yield was a big worry. this rally unlike the fall rally, we've seen high yields recover to a much greater degree. as oil even if it stays flat here that's better yield for the high yield market. we saw a similar move in the oil markets. >> although i will say $38 or $39 bucks a barrel is still really bad news for most oil producers. it's funny to me to see the high yield market stabilize which 38 doesn't matter as much like 33 or 30. it's harder to meet your obligations of 38 for some of

these companies. >> and you've been highlighting in your reports in the last week and such, they need higher prices to maintain their cash flows. but it's just not -- you know, it's just not -- >> we've got a guest on later that says 50 is coming. that would be better news. paul and stephen, thank you very much. have a great day. when we return, it's pi, pizza hut is giving math lovers a few years of pie, pizza pie. plus, big bay lopay losses e top bosses of chipotle. right, as we head to a break, take a look to s&p 500's winners and losers. ♪ we're in the money we're in the money ♪

[alarm beeps] ♪ ♪ the intelligent, all-new audi a4 is here. ♪ ♪ ain't got time to make no apologies...♪

welcome back to "squawk box," time for today's executive edge. this is one of the craziest stories. venture capital fund s sequoia parting ways. this comes after the accusation that he sexually abused a woman over a series of years. he plans to file a cross complaint today. the lawsuit filed alleges that wayne goguen's sexual partner

could no longer tolerate his behavior. he signed a contract for the horror suffered at his hands. after paying $10 million he refused to honor the rest of the agreement now, of course, she's suing him for breach of contract. it takens graphic details that he raped the woman repeatedly and other acts. >> he raped her while they were in a relationship? >> it's a civil complaint. >> she's suing for breach of contract. >> yes, she's claiming that something terrible, terrible, terrible must have happened during the relationship. as a result of that, he tried to silence her by paying her $40 million. he then paid her $10 million. hasn't paid her the rest now she is suing. he is apparently filing a cross complaint which has e-mails and texts and other materials that suggested they were in a loving relationship. >> then why did he sign the

contract in the first place? >> the whole thing is strange. of course, he never told sequoia. >> shocking he didn't bring it up over dinner? >> it's shocking because he didn't want this to come out. they have fired him. well, he's gone. it's gone. there was a story like this, joe lonsdale, i don't know if you remember a year ago who was extorted not the same kind of story, a woman came out and said all of these terrible things. he's a venture capitalist in silicon valley. he had a professorship at stanford. ultimately, his name had been tarred but he came back from because it had been proven that the woman was wrong. the other issue is sequoia is the one that had that other lawsuit about not having enough women in their firm. other things happened. i can't think of what happened, she was a venture capitalist at the firm. >> it's tawdry when personal

experiences outside of work come into work. it's a little different than just at the firm. >> well, it was is that she was mistreated at the firm. let's move on. part of chipotle's executive's future compensation will be directly linked to the company's share price going forward. the burrito stopped tumbling after a series of series of serious illness outbreaks. and four employees reportedly being sick. and with the norovirus. it's a greater tie to the performance of stock which is kind of hard to argue is ever a bad thing. >> you'd expect to see this with every company. >> you'd like to see that more with athletes. maybe if we talk to charles barkley about this. he might body-check me.

if you're a hitter and then you start swinging a contract -- >> no, performance, like super bowl, if you make it all the way. if you make it to the playoffs you get an additional bonus. if you make it to the championship. and if you win. >> what do you think about chipotle? >> what do you think about if you get injured? >> i don't even think that my plan is real. i was just using that to make a sarcastic point. it obviously, charles oakley is joining us later. >> we should also tell all that today is march 14th. it's known as pi day 3.14. pizza hut is hosting the online contest to celebrate the international math holiday giving you a chance to win 3.14 years of pizza. there is a catch. the questions range in

difficulty from high school level to ph.d. level. you can bet there's going to be at least one or two really, really tricky ones. >> the professor of mathematics at princeton university. it's going to be like "a beautiful mind." you're going to need matt damon from "goodwill hunting" come in. the other note on this, honestly, who calls a pizza a pie? >> i do. >> is that because of my california upbringing? no one in my family has said let's get a pizza pie? >> you say let's orders say pie, let get a pie. >> who will says that? >> it's a pizza. >> a pie is like apple, strawberry. different question, who knows 3.14, how far out can you take it? >> 770 or something -- >> no, just say -- >> me? >> 16.

>> 3.11419. >> i rounded 1 -- >> 8675309 -- >> or you 8, 1, 2. >> i now the south jersey girl would get that reference. coming up, bound to happen. first, they invaded the workforce. now they're getting married and having kids. the millennials. now the next stop is the 'burbs. how it it could reshape the landscape. a quick check of what's happening in the european markets. back in a moment. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected.

am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.

hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business.

welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures looking a little weaker. dow futures down 35 points. s&p down by 6. nasdaq down by 12. of course, we're waiting to see what the fed does this week with a two-day meeting that ends with a decision on wednesday. also check out shares of yahoo!. rico is reporting yahoo! just completed projects ya hoo gains and astrology in a way to foresee the business. >> i don't think yin would foresee ya hoo astrology

shutting down. millennials are ditching the city and moving out to the 'burbs. >> it's the changing of the time. the oldest millennials are finally getting married having kids and looking for bigger houses and schools and that means at 'burbs. they're watching the rents rise in major cities. rents are at a record high. so in an average survey, realtors found 17% bought homes in north central areas. that urban share came down from 21% in the previous survey. the median age of a millennial buyer was 30.

there's definitely runway ahead there. the desire to own is growing. 38% of those surveyed said it was their primary reason for buying. that's up from 39% a year ago. the desire for a larger home with the highest among genx buyers and older boomers at 20% most likely to buy because of retirement. the biggest for home buyers. >> for what is driving the ship, we have ali rend. she's here. 0 she's also a cnbc contributor. the question i have, i remember stories that said the suburbs are over. suburbs are back. the suburbs are in, out, what's happening here? >> well, it's a matter of age, it's the fact that millennials are actually getting married and having their kids later. >> so they're shifting the trend? >> right. >> they can't afford it.

they have student loan debt out the kazoo. they can practically afford to buy in the suburbs and they want to own. if you want to own, you don't are real choices. >> is that right, by the way, we did a segment on rent to own situation, given what the market place is, i know it's hard to speculate, would you rent or own? >> depends who i am. >> depends on the city. >> exactly. if you're a young, young person, i'd rent because i want mobility. i want to be able to follow the job. renting gives you mobility. if you're older, i think you want to invest in your roogts are. >> i spoke to a couple downsizing baby boomers had the $5 million house in boston suburbs. they sold the house. they were so appalled by the prices they actually went back to the 'burbs to rents a 5,000-square foot house and said

it was cheaper to rent. >> it's like an allstate commercial, we're never leaving the city. we're never -- and then he's got the minivan. what people are saying, 26 years old, i'm never move to get 'burbs, two years later, i'm mowing the lawn. what people say and practical that you have kids i don't want to be a new york-focused show, your kids are in school. it's nuts. >> i live in d.c., in the district. i'm not in the ap bus'burbs, i e kids. it's easier. >> and in the real estate market, low end stock going fast. >> yes. >> the high-end stuff which used to go fast, not so much. >> new construction. >> new construction? >> new construction is getting so much supply. people have all these choices. >> around the country?

>> new york city, san francisco, it's crazy in los angeles, downtown. they're building huge buildings. it's pretty much all the big cities. i just think that new construction is going to kill all demand. people are going to freak out and say, wow, i have so much choices. >> as an l.a. kid i was born in pretty downtown l.a. there was no downtown. now, we go back -- it's changed. there's a lot of people moving from new york to l.a. i don't know how many l.a. viewers are up until they're rolling in. downtown l.a. is great to see. >> how soft are the prices? >> i think they're going to be very soft. but the banks really have all the equity in it. the banks are holding on now, we'll see what happens. we may be seeing another issue like we have in 2008. >> hold on, what do you mean another issue like 2008? >> banks have to take them back quietly. >> you're talking new york city,

manhatt manhattan? >> we don't know. >> but we have a major lack of housing in the rest of the country. >> yes, new buildings. >> the $20 million stuff is down, $1 million stuff. >> under 3. under 3, out the door. boom, boom, boom. goes on the market, three open houses, sold. mortgage rates are really low. their rents are so high it makes absolute sense to buy. >> by the way, what kind of rates are people getting these days? >> these are rates under 2%. >> a lot of this five-year a.r.m. stuff? >> yep, and they're doing. >> interest only, you've got to have some skin in the game. it exists but i say you have to have some skin in the game, some money down. >> no, these hedge fund kids, 26, 27 years ago old, they've got money saved. they put down 20%, getting

interest on the loans at 1.7%. only interest only. they're monthly payments are lower. >> you're talking top tier borrowers. >> wall streeters are different than america in the way they get paid, because you get a small paycheck 11 months of the year. then you get a gigantic bonus once a year. you want to keep -- or lawyers same way. they get a giant check once a year. >> little kids aren't thinking that way, right? they're thinking i want to own this, if i can afford the payment, i'll figure it out. >> penthouse, that's the most spectacular -- that's my power ball place. if eye ever win the power ball. >> you're coming to me. >> i'm coming to you? >> absolutely, 125 penthouse.

>> 249. >> he's negotiating. he's writing the check. >> are you still going to have it on the market next year? >> no definitely not. >> dolly, thank you. >> thank you. >> brian i was wrong when i was talking about sequoia with that firm with the discrimination it was connor. >> i was also wrong. apparently other people call it a pie. >> exactly. >> becky, anything you want to talk about today? tip-off from march madness is almost -- i'll be wrong in some of your picks i predict. two nba greats weighing in. grant hill and charles barkley answering everything from politics to the economy. get this, a hack playing spoiler

on sunday. we get that story when "squawk box" returns in a moment.

welcome back, everybody. things just got pretty interesting. starwood hotels has received a new takeover proposal from a consortium of companies. this new deal is worth $76 a share in cash, according to the press release that they've put out. starwood, as you know, already has a deal in place to be bought by marriott, but they had

received permission from marriott to go ahead and shop it around and speak with this consortium. the board has acknowledged that it got this proposal and is examining it, but at this point, has not changed its recommendation to support the marriott deal, but you can see, the stock is up about 10%, just based on this idea. it's trading at $77.50, even though this deal would value it at $76. that makes people think there's something happening here, there's something at play. it is a bit of a strange release. it talks about the consortium, but doesn't identify who the consortium is, who's involved with trying to take this deal higher. but it's going to get people talking this morning. and obviously, you can see already. >> we're going to do some reporting on this, but you should remember, before the marriott deal came about, there was a lot of chatter about a potential transaction with the chinese. there was a consortium back then of chinese giants, hotel and real estate companies that were prepared to buy the company. that's when marriott swooped in underneath it. the question is, whether, when they talk about this consortium, whether it's the same consortium of chinese and investors that

were looking at this before, but maybe somebody knew. >> the weird thing, too, about it is this offer is $76 a share, it's an interesting thing, because this spin-off. marriott will say that their offer is $79.88 per share. it goes off the marriott price, at the time, it was just under $71, plus two bucks cash, plus $7.80 per share from the spin-off. so i'm assuming the consortium offer is $76 and then you add on the $7.80, so the total value would have to be, what, $83.80. because marriott is pricing their offer at $79.88. if this is a straight $76 offer with no spin-off, then it's worth less. so the deal has got to be worth $83.80 a share. >> and real quick, the prior consortium, and we don't know if it's the same one, china investment corporation, the parent company of china's

thatnan airlines. were a part of the earlier consortium. >> and just to verify the math, they're saying it's $76 a share, and then their take, vistana experience with ilg and valuing that at $5.50 a share. >> but there was also $2 a share in cash in the old deal. what i'm saying is, whatever it is has got to be worth more than -- it can't just -- this can't just be a $76 offer. so at the minimum, it's $81.50. >> you're right. >> at the minimum. we don't know if there's $2 a share in cash that marriott was going to pay. if you're just joining us and hearing, the consortium, it's because we don't know who it is. it's this mystery group. but there's other news this morning, that starwood -- not starwood, blackstone, has agreed to sell its strategic hotels and resorts company to a chinese insurance company. so you wonder if this is literally a wave of china-based buyers coming in to take out u.s. hotel properties. i don't know.

>> looks that way. >> why wouldn't they mention who's in the consortium, is my point. unless it's companying that would have a meaning to u.s. investors. >> i'm going to hit the phones and hopefully we'll get some answers. >> don't hit them. use them to make calls. >> when we come back, some great expectations. what markets want to hear from the fed. and gop front-runner donald trump taking heat after a string of violence at his rallies. steve forbes on the race and the high stakes for the republican party. we have more squawk, right after this. the e-class has 11 intelligent driver-assist systems. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. the 2016 e-class. now receive up to a $3,000 spring bonus on the e350 sport sedan.

hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business.

you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. . campaign chaos. >> get help out of here! get help out! get 'em out! now! >> distressing images dominating the weekend. protests and anger boiling over at donald trump's rallies and new signs that the republican party may be fracturing. the latest on both sides of the

campaign trail, as we count down to tomorrow's big primary. >> and four street weeks of gains in the markets, was data on the consumer and the fed may change all of that. we'll break down what you need to watch when wall street opens for business straight ahead. and march madness has arrived. from possible upsets to final four expectations to hacking. former new york nick charles oakley will talk bracketology and how you could have the chance to win $25 million. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. life from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box". >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and brian sullivan. the futures at this hour, pretty much flat throughout the day. dow futures down by about 35 points below fair value. s&p futures off by 6.

this comes after four weeks in a row of gains by the major averages. you also see the wti this morning, giving back some ground. it's close to 2%. back to $37.76. we have a couple of big headlines this morning just braeng i breaking. natural foods grocer fresh market will be bought by apollo. total deal, nearly $1.4 billion and represents a premium of about 24% over friday's close. and then the one that we were just talking about before we went to break, starwood hotels is now in play, even though that it already has a deal in place to be bought by marriott. starwood says it's received an unsolicited proposal from a consortium of companies worth $76 per share. its board has not changed its permission in support of the marriott deal. let me tell you a few things about this particular transaction. at the time the statement came out, they talked about a consortium.

they did not say who the consortium was. i got on the phone and it looks like the consortium involves the chinese insurance company which just bought this series of hotels from blackstone. we so we also talked about the announcement that blackstone was selling to the insurance company in china, some of the very biggest name hotels in the united states. blackstone had bought it for $4 billion. it was sold to them for $6.5 billion. this all happened in the past, what, six months now, when blackstone bought it originally. >> and by the way, what you just reported, just confirmed by marriott. marriott must have known this was coming, because there's headlines -- by the way, if you're just joining us, this is one of the most confusing takeovers of all times. so, marriott has just come out with a bunch of headlines and they're saying, they're confirming that angbank consortium group is the lead bid. but they also believe their offer is the best -- of course

they're going to say that. and they say that the consortium offer is highly conditional and nonbinding. >> i'm told chris flowers, by the way -- >> very famous private equity guy. >> financier here in new york city is also involved with the angbang consortium. i don't know if they're disclosing that in the release. >> as you look through the prices on this, look, part of the issues is that marriott shares came down from when this deal was first done. i think it was closer to, you know, if you look back in november, the stock was trading at $77 a share at the beginning of december. it had come down slightly to around $71. marriott shares fell along with the rest of the market. if you look through early january, it fell as low as $59 a share. it has come back, along with the rest of the markets to about $68.89. but that is a stock deal, and so the value of the deal changes on a day-by-day basis, watching the stock market trade with this. >> i wonder if there's a floor, though. let's back it up. to me, the takeaway will be this. this insurance company, which arguably most of our viewers --

i've probably never -- >> this morning was the first time -- >> i've never heard of them, angbang insurance group, never heard of them, is bidding for nearly $20 billion of u.s. hotel or global hotel properties, but two u.s. companies. $6.5 billion on the blackstone deal and now potentially, i'll call it, because starwood's got a $11.8 billion valuation, let's call it a rough $19.5 billion in hotels being bid on by heretofore unknown china insurance company. potentially ca lly teaming up w fairly late to the game -- fair to characterize chris flowers that way? >> i wouldn't call him late to the game. he's been close to the chinese for quite some time and specifically close to insurance companies. this insurance company already owns the waldorf. there's your headline.

mysterious chinese insurance corporation bidding for $20 billion in hotel assets. let's tell you about a few other stocks. chipotle receiving praise for its handling of a recent health issue. they closet a boston restaurant to clean up after a norovirus scare. it will reopen today. ingersoll-rand could rally over the next year. obviously, that's weighed on its competitors. and united continental ceo oscar munoz is returning from medical leave today. he's got an interesting day to do this, because he does face an immediate battle from two activist hedge funds over his pay and the airline's plans to give him the chairman's role. park capital and altimeter capital last week nominated their own slate of directors and want former continental airlines chief gordon bethune to be named chairman. we'll have more on this story a little later in this hour. all right. new this morning, an amtrak train from los angeles to

chicago with 128 passengers and 14 crew members suffered a derailment of multiple cars about 20 miles west of dodge city, kansas. the train company said initial reports were that there were no life-threatening injuries to people onboard and that local emergency services were at the scene. amtrak said the derailment occurred just after 1:00 a.m. eastern time this morning. five cars did draerail. mitt romney will campaign with john kasich today at two stops in ohio. romney is not expected to endorse the ohio governor during the campaign swing, but it will be the first time that he's campaigned on behalf of a republican candidate this cycle. earlier this month at a speech in u.s., romney attacked front-runner donald trump, calling him a fraud. and he warned of the dangers to the republican party if trump were to win the nomination. republican presidential front-runner donald trump refused, though, to take responsibility on sunday for clashes at his campaign events. and criticized protesters who have dogged his rallies and forced him to cancel one in chicago last week. when a protester interrupted his

speech on sunday at an airport hangar in bloomington, illinois, minutes after it began, trump derided him as a disrupter and told the cheering crowd, quote, don't worry about it, i don't hear their voice. john harwood joining us now. can we expect this to ramp up ahead of tomorrow's big day? >> don't know what direction that's going to take, brian. look, we had an extraordinary turn over the weekend, away from the normal political disagreements between candidates and toward the specter of violence hanging over some of donald trump's rallies. it caused him to cancel an event in chicago. even though this has only affected events involving donald trump, he told our colleague chuck todd yesterday, not my fault. >> i don't accept responsibility, i do not condone violence in any shape. and i will tell you, from what i saw, the young man stuck his finger up in the air and the other man sort of just had it. when they punch, it's okay.

when my people punch back because they have to out of self-defense, everybody says, oh, isn't that terrible? >> reporter: but his rivals as we approach those big primaries on tuesday hit back hard. marco rubio said that donald trump was raising the specter of third world strongmen. john kasich said he was creating a toxic environment. and ted cruz saying he needs to look in the mirror. >> but at the end of the day, in any campaign, responsibility starts at the top. and it is not beneficial when you have a presidential candidate like donald trump telling his supporters, punch that guy in the face. >> now, here's why other campaigns are seizing on this. donald trump is getting close to the possibility of locking down the republican nomination. let's take a look at the polls. in florida, where marco rubio's trying to salvage his campaign, donald trump has a very substantial lead, 20 percentage points. ohio's a different story. john kasich's trying to hang on with mitt romney today, deny donald trump the delegates he needs for a first ballot

victory. kasich has to lead in our nbc news "wall street journa journal"/marist poll by about six points. on the democratic side, hillary clinton has very substantial leads in both florida, where she leads bernie sanders by more than 20 percentage points, and in ohio. but we've got to note, guys. hillary clinton had a very large lead over bernie sanders in michigan last week and the polling was all wrong. we'll have to wait to see what happens tomorrow. >> john, thank you so much. gen, john harwood. joining us with more on the gop's battle for delegates the former gop presidential candidate and chairman and editor in chief of forbes media, steve forbes. steve, it's great to see you. we haven't talked to you in an awfully long time. and i have to admit, i don't know where you stand on all of this. what do you think about what's happening? >> i think that the three-on-trump candidates, especially ted cruz, has finally woken up. you have to beat trump with substance. cruz has come out vigorously with the flat tax and is ramping that up. you can't say, i don't like

donald trump, i don't like what he does, you have to have an alternative. that's why you're seeing more people rally around cruz. trump has to wrap up his campaign in terms of putting out more substance and flushing out his tax plan and spending plans and the like, because people are at a stage, okay, it's now winnowed down, where do we go from here? >> although the candidate, arguably, who had the best policy positions and was consistently putting them out was bush and it didn't work at all for him. >> you have to lead with it. he talked about 4% gdp growth, i understood what he was saying, but most people, it sounded like a hair formula. what's it mean for my prospects, my wages, my kids -- >> he came about it from the wrong direction? >> ronald reagan has a wonderful way of translating these things into a way that people could actually understand how it might improve their lives and improve the country. bush was too abstract. it was great stuff, but you have to lead with these things. ted cruz finally is waking up.

tough to lead with these things. you can't have a position and say, go to my website. >> but the trump campaign has been lacking in terms of -- we know what his policy is about -- he'll talk very abstractly. he won't talk about the details. >> well, he came out of the box saying he's against immigration, in the most forceful way possible. he said he was against trade deals in the most forceful way possible. others could have taken on that and said, you've got to be more specific, but he moved into a vacuum, the others department move into a vacuum until recently. john kasich is till leading his rallies with sounding like it's an improvement meeting. you know, you've got to lead with substance. >> what do you think about donald trump's tax plan and the rest of his plans? >> well, the tax plan is not the flat tax, so it's not bad for a non-tax plan. but he's got to, i think, i think he's got an opportunity now to ramp that up.

go for a flat tax. cruz has done it. he's a little flawed on the business side. but paul ryan in the house would correct that pretty quickly. you've got to give people something to grasp on to. how are we going to get this economy out of the rut? it's sort of like chinese water torture, we get a good economic report, then a bad one. we can't seem to get out of second gear. that's what the malaise is, ten years of stagnation. >> steve, you haven't endorsed a candidate yet, but would you be comfortable with any of the candidates who are running on the republican platform? >> i think on the nomination, you have to have that positive support, so yes, i'll support the nominee. >> what do you think is happening to the party right now? it does seem like it's in a crisis like i've never seen in my lifetime before. >> well, it depends on how this thing plays out. but the key thing is, if you start coming out with something really substantiative, the party will rally around really pretty, if we get beyond personality zps back to principle. reagan was always out there, but he always made sure it was beyond him. not just the personality. you have something you stood

for. >> where do you come down on trade? from donald trump wins, he has been pretty strong speaking against -- >> this is, again, where the un-trump candidates have been late. they're dealing with this trade issue, very easy to have a sound bite, this is costing us jobs, they haven't made the free trade arguments, yet. i think that's beginning to happen awfully late in the game, but without free trade, we're going to have a global recession. we tried that in the 1930s. it didn't work. >> talking about smoot-hawley. >> you supporting trump, then? or supporting trump by default? >> no, i'm not supporting anyone yet. it's like the dating game, waiting to see who gets it together. >> but you're not willing to come out and suggest that one's policy from a substantiative perspective is better than another? >> i've said ted cruz's tax plan is better than the others. rubio has the weakest one, john kasich not as good as what rubio has put out or ted cruz has put out. >> what do you think about establishment members coming out against donald trump?

>> the dirty little secret today is, there's no establishment. certainly not on the republican side. you have officials from the past, party officials today getting paid by donors, but they have no clout. first of all, smoke-filled rooms are illegal. you can't smoke in rooms anymore. and you have a contested convention, open convention, each delegates will want his or her 15 minutes of fame. it's going to be chaotic. >> the rhetoric doesn't bother you? >> that's very different from discussing a tax plan and a spending plan. what are you going to do about the fed in these begotten policies and free trade? i want to get it back to policies. i think cruz is you shalling that way. and i think kasich will push it as well. let's get a real debate. people yearn for that. where do we go from here? >> steve, great to see you. come back soon. coming up, when we return, the fed and consumer in focus this week as the bulls look to keep the winning streak alive. a look at what investors will need to watch and market strategies straight ahead. take a look at the futures right now before we go. you're looking right now at some

red. we're back in a moment .

when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. great, that's what i said. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. all right, good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." the consumer and the federal reserve of the united states will be the focus for the markets this week. tomorrow, a big day for data.

february retail sales, the producer price index, and the empire state survey, which i know you've all been salivating over, will all be out. top off the data with a fed meeting on wednesday. the consumer price index, housing starts, and the big fomc decision. it's a big week. steve dunigan joining us now. brian belski is here on set. chief investment strategist at bmo capital markets. i know we've been talking about that empire state manufacturing survey for weeks now. >> deep, deep, deep into it. >> with all seriousness, what is the key thing for you going forward with regard to investing? >> you know, we've had a nice recovery, right? >> the dow was actually almost positive for the year. just under 1% down for the year. so it's been quite a comeback the last few weeks. >> i guess what we would say is, as we go and talk to our constitutional clients, everyone is now kind of waiting for the pullback. everyone's kind of calling it on a short-term basis with respect to how weak we're going to be. and i guess at the end of the day, i kind of sift through and

look at where our models are saying it's for year-end and we see a $2,100 target for year end. we came out this year and said it would be a volatile, that we would have a pull back to 1,800, we got that. now we meander higher. doesn't mean it'll be straight up, but it means we think that as the fundamentals of the u.s. economy continue to improve, we think that earnings and gdp are especially going to be stronger the second half of the year. >> i feel like we've lived a year of investing in what 2 1/2 months? because literally -- >> january was like, oh, my god, we're doomed, the worlds coming to an end, now we've had four straight weeks of gains. why have we been so volatile in ten weeks of trading? >> i think with the fed waiting too long, in our view, to raise rates last year, made people kind of refigure their portfolios at year-end and that followed through into january. plus, you had the global growth scare in commodities and that settled in. now we're beginning to see a bit of digestion from all those prior trends.

and as people become more confident with respect to what's happening, not only me merging markets and commodities, that will bring a little bit more stability with respect to good old-fashioned informsing. that's why we think we're heading into a value market where you want to look at good old-fashioned companies. it's the '90s again, peter lynch/warren buffett type of investing. >> we talk about good old-fashioned investing where earnings matter, but you have all this stuff out here, the fed, china worries, what are you focused on? >> brian, you're right. there's always a long litany of things to be concerned about, but a lot of positives out there. the u.s. economy continues to expand. we're looking for 2% this year, so we do not have a recession in our forecast. so those fears as we enter the calendar year of a recession, global growth, crude oil, will not lead to a recession. so we'll look for the fed here to take a pass in the march meeting. we think they will be sort of noncommittal, continue with the story around data dependent, but

we do see two more rate hikes through june and december. >> and i'm sorry to jump in, just because time is short. if we do get one more rate hike, four more rate hikes this year, will that hurt our viewers' 401(k) accounts? >> i think an improving economy with the fed is comfortable with normalizing rates will be a positive for the economy, for markets, and for investors. >> hey, brian, i know you've had this thesis for a long time, that we're in a 20-year bull market. i love that thesis, but there are probably a lot of people who aren't feeling all that great. the investors who are looking, i think it's something like half of the s&p 400 are 20% or more below their recent highs. if you're somebody who has been stock picking to this point, you could really feel like you're in a terrible bear market. >> we're very close to being even. and if you walk down main street

in america, people still think we're in a recession. and most constitutiinstitutiona were positioned for a recession. now, what does that mean for mom and pop? mom and pop are scared about isis, scared about the election, scared about the fed. they're still sitting on their hands and sitting on bonds. as interest rates continue to rise, their total returns will begin to turn negative. and then they'll go back to stocks they know, the coca-colas, the comcasts, the starbucks, names we know and grew up with our country. that's what they'll go back and buy, good old-fashioned companies led by american companies. >> i need an eagle on my shoulder after that segment. that's great. brian belski, appreciate it, buddy. jim dunigan, appreciate it. >> thanks, brian. >> it's morning in america. we're going to make america great again. coming up, the brackets are set, but not without a bit of controversy. we'll get into the details about that after the break. and later, the battle for the

buckeye state heating up. mitt romney now on the campaign trail. john kasich, of course, trying to win his home state against donald trump. two former governments will talk to us about the battle for ohio and the white house. ed rendell and jim gillmore will join us in just a moment. back in a bit. vo: know you have a dedicated

advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team.

. all the college basketball regional and divisional tournaments have been played and now the ncaa tournament selection committee has cast their ballots. the number one seed in the east goes to the university of north carolina. in the south, the number one seed goes to the kansas jayhawks. by the way, the 12th time in school history that has happened. the midwest top seed, hurts me to say this as a hokie, the virginia cavaliers pick up the number one seed. this is the fifth time they have been number one. finally in the west, the oregon ducks men's basketball team will earn their number one seed. there we go. in the next half hour, former nba player charles oakley will join us to help break down some bracket math. definitely want to stick around for that. in the meantime, the ncaa is investigating a leaked bracket that made its way to social media before the team named this

year's men basketball tourney officially went public. the 2016 bracket appeared on twitter during the airing of the annual tournament selection show on cbs. the ncaa released a statement about the incident on sunday night. quote, we go through great lengths to prevent the tournament field from being revealed early. the ncaa took its usual measures to protect this from happening. unfortunately and regrettably, the bracket was revealed prior to our broadcast partners having the opportunity to finish unveiling it. we take this matter seriously and we are looking into it. >> what happened? >> i don't know. somebody knew something and then they just had no qualms about putting it out there. i'm not sure it impacts -- it's not like leaking a deal early. just somebody got a peek. >> and then they put it on twitter. >> they should have put it on snapchat if they want to get noticed. coming up, trump rallies over the weekend took a turn for the worst. is the trump campaign is getting

toxic or is this a situation of some outsiders getting involved. we'll talk about that with two former governors. right now, take a look at the u.s. equity futures. dow futures down by about 36 points. s&p futures down by 6. the nasdaq down by 13.

i am the future. i provide for my family.

i will use my education to help my community. i will inspire our next generation of leaders. i am a college student, but i am only 1%. only 1% of college students are american indian. donate now, and help our numbers grow. ♪ when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. great, that's what i said. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. we've got a couple big stories the front and center. the biggest one right now, starwood is hot this morning. the hotel chain has received an unsolicited $76 per share takeover bid. it's actually more when you look at one of the spin-offs that's involved in it. from a consortium of investors led by china's angbang insurance company. they already have a deal in place to be bought my marriott. this is a huge land grab for angbang, which has just made a deal also with blackstone for $6.5 billion to buy what is called strategic hotels. strategic hotels include some of the biggest names you know. that includes the four seasons in washington, the westin

francis in union square in san francisco and the ritz carlson lagoon in niguel. and angbang also owns the waldorf already in the united states, which does you to believe they've already cleared cfius. the other piece of this bid is that starwood management would stay in place. this might ultimately be more attractive if you're the management side of this. we'll have to analyze what to do here, but this is for them, at least, a long-term play. angbang has teamed up with prevera capital. an asian investment company and chris flowers, the banker here in the u.s. who's part of this transaction, as well, and one of the things we were talking about, though, is where is angbang getting all this money. they're an insurance company with apparently $290 billion, but they didn't have $290 billion even two years ago. they offer yields. this goes to what's going on in the chinese market. they offer 60% yields, so there's a large question

about -- >> so let's be clear about -- i'm going to be very careful in what i say, i'm not insinuating anything. i'm just going to say this. according to the economists, this angbang bank or insurance company was started in 2004. >> yes. >> with $60 million. >> yes. >> $60 million in capital. the founder and chairman is married to the granddaughter of de dengdjou ping, the former premier. so they've gone from $60 million in capital to last year buying u.s. fidelity life and insurance for $1.6 billion. so $3.6 billion in deals last year. so now making nearly $20 billion in offers and deals just today. from $60 million to $20 billion in offers in 12 years. good for them. but i'm just going to say that that kind of growth, i've been

doing this a long time, as have you. i'm not sure i've ever seen any corporation go from $60 million to $2.9 billion in capital in 12 years. can you name anything analogous to this. >> this goes to a lot of these chinese companies that are offering 6% yields. >> so you use that money to pay me back my 6%. somebody else gives you the 6% and you use that to buy something else. >> that's how it goes. >> at some point, that has to end. >> potentially. >> marriott's point in all of this, they think their deal is better because theirs is binding, this is not binding. what does that mean? the nonbinding. >> there's going to be a diligence phase to this. it's not clear this offer is right here -- it's on the table, but not tonight table. is starwood going to engage with them? are they not going to engage? what i haven't looked at right now is what the breakup fee is for starwood. there's a lot of questions. gen, brian's raising questions about the buyer unto themselves.

clearly, by the way, that hasn't posed a risk or problem for the blackstone folks so far. >> and they're -- >> they're going to be happy to take their money. >> it's an incredible growth story. $60 million in capital, again, according to the economists, last year they did a feature on -- they called it the big angbang, because they were talking about this amazing growth of this company, and if you go to their website, they made this $1.6 billion deal last year for an insurance company. point is, they're buying -- they've sort of come out of nowhere to now buy the waldorf astoria, an insurance company, and now making $20 billion in deals/offers, just today. that's got to be one of the greatest growth and success stories in the history of global finance. >> real quick, the breakup fee on that transaction, to the extent the arbs out there looking, $400 million. if, in fact, this deal gets broken up. we'll see where the management and board ultimately lands. but in the meantime, we'll talk some politics this morning,

because it's been an ugly, violent weekend on the campaign trail with protesters and arrests at the trump rallies from chicago to kansas city. trump is pointing his finger at supporters of bernie sanders, which gop candidates say the candidate himself is to blame. new polls show trump leading in new states with primaries tuesday. hillary clinton also blaming trump for the angry protesters, as her lead widens against bernie sanders. and joining us right now, former pennsylvania governor, ed rendell, is going to join us. also, former virginia governor and presidential candidate, jim gillmore. good morning to both of you. ed, i'll start with you. a lot of conversation about all of these riots and protests at the trump -- at some of these trump rallies. and just what that means was, do trump supporters care? a lot of people have been very critical over the weekend, but i'm not sure that necessarily is changing the equation. >> i agree with you. i think trump supporters accept the line that trump people are putting out. it's the protesters that come in there, seeking trouble.

that they're planning to cause and create trouble. and they're getting what they deserve and it's not donald trump's fault. so i think you're going to see donald trump perform very, very well. the key, of course, and i'm sure jim will comment on this, is ohio. if he takes ohio, ohio and florida are winner take all, then i think he's going to be impossible to stop. but john kasich is slightly ahead in the polls in ohio, so if kasich wins ohio, there's still a path to tonight, to the nomination. but i think you're going to see his vote stay fairly firm throughout this past weekend. >> governor, would trump help or hurt himself by coming out and saying, look, to his own supporters, you've got to stop with this violence bit. >> i don't think he would hurt himself in the primary. i don't think he would hurt himself. but i do think for the general election, that's the tone he's got to take. >> governor gilmore? >> sorry to interrupt you. yeah, i think that trump supporters are going to believe that he's standing up to the

left. and at the end of the day, what this campaign is going to really be about is not donald trump. it's going to be about hillary clinton and be about bernie sanders. and they propose to take the leftward lurch of the country and move it radically even much further to the left and i think there's an anger and frustration in the society today that's manifesting itself, not just in donald trump, but in a general anger and resentment that's coming forward. and i don't think that the protesters are going to hurt trump at all by coming out there and doing this. it's going to make most americans believe that he's the one person who could stand up to this sort of thing that we've seen in the past. >> governor gillmore, one of the conversations we had earlier with ben white was the debate around who wall street ultimately wants, whether trump or ted cruz would be their candidate. who's your candidate? >> well, i don't know who wall street wants. i'm not sure there is a wall street. i think that that's, once again, the democrats trying to find a scapegoat. so it's wall street our big banks or something like that. this is just this warmed over marxist stuff you see, where

they're trying to create a class society and directing anger of the community across the country towards some fictitious group somewhere. here's the fact. the fact is that we've got a slow growth economy under the obama administration. we're growing at 2%. young people are not getting the opportunities to start careers that they want to. people are working part-time that ought to be working full-time. this is widely understood across the country. manufacturing jobs are being exported overseas. people are angry and frustrated and that's why you're seeing this anger and frustration. frankly, you're seeing it on the bernie side, too. you're seeing it on the bernie side, the trump side, the cruz side. and i think we're in a time where the people will decide if they want change or the same. and i think people are voting for change. >> governor, when you look at the substance of the plan, to the extent you think anybody is looking at substance anymore, you look at trump's tax plan, for example, and depending on the analysis you look at, could cost $10 trillion over the next ten years. >> well, i think this --

>> bernie sanders' plan is not any better, just to make this apolitical. >> look, i got all of this. and i was in the race. and i offered a substantial tax plan that was revenue neutral, that would grow the economy at 4% and create more jobs. and i think it can be done. the question is, what are the two directions that the party, that the countries are going in as a result of selection of one of these two parties. and the fact is very simple. hillary clinton is not only most radical candidate we've seen since bernie sanders, but in addition though that, she destroyed her e-mails, she's being deceptive, that's the kind of candidate that she is and is going to be and the kind of president she's going to be. and we republicans, we've got a bit of a fix here. we've got to figure who we're going to support. but at the end of the day, i think we're going to rally together against a hillary clinton or bernie sanders' candidacy because of the direction they want to take the country, which is not in accord with what the people of the united states want today. >> governor rendell, i'm giving you the last word, sir.

>> well, two very noted republicans, henry kissinger and donald trump said publicly that hillary clinton was a great secretary of state. i think she was and i think she was a great senator. and i think she's got the best plan and the best temperament to be president and to lead the country and to bring us together. >> okay. we will leave it there. it's a longer conversation, of course, but i'm sure we'll continue to have it, virtually, every hour, on the hour. thanks so much. appreciate it. some of the candidates calling the drug industry their enemy. others making it their enemy with policies that the industry sees as dangerous. so where do the candidates stand when it comes to pharma? meg terrell join uses right now with a political beat check. >> really the democrats seem to be focusing on this a lot more. if you look at the way they lay out their plans, hillary clinton and bernie sanders have detailed plans for how they want to take on pharma and have made this a big part of their -- >> because they think drug prices have been too high and have been using this as part of the -- >> right, the price-gouging idea. so hillary clinton really focuses on direct-to-consumer

advertising. she hates those tv ads you see for lipitor and viagra, and things like that, and she wants to accelerate competition. allow us to import drugs from other countries where they're cheaper. and the biggest up wi egest one medicare to negotiate drug prices. right now we're not allowed to do that. a lot of people argue that would bring down the cost of drugs. there's a lot of argument about how that would work. >> wasn't that part of the deal with the affordable care act, that medicare would not be negotiating? >> yeah, that there was this sort of -- joe likes to call it the fastian bargain with the drug makers in order to get obamacare passed. a lot of folks talk about that. but this is something that is on the table and hillary clinton was talking about it in her last campaign. and this is something sanders has made a big part of his campaign, as well. he would require medicare to negotiate on drug prices. ending quote/unquote pay for day. that's a tactic in the pharmaceutical industry. and finally he wants to require transparency from drug pricing, requiring companies to actually

disclose information about how much their r&d costs and things like that. if you switch over into the republicans, they donate focus as much on drug prices. most of them say we want to repeal obamacare and that's kind of it. cruz has published a little bit about overhauling the fda, but trump has really kind of separated from the pack in terms of drug prices. he, of course, does want to repeal obamacare. but he also says, we should import drugs from overseas. that's a different thing from most republicans. and he says, constantly, that enabling medicare to negotiate drug prices would save $300 billion. here's a clip from one of the debates last week. >> we don't bid out, as an example, the drug industry. the pharmaceutical industry. they don't go out to bid. they just pay almost as if you're walking to a drugstore. that's what you're paying. and the reason is, they have a fantastic lobby. they take care of all of the senators, the congressman, they have great power, and they don't bid out. >> now, a lot of folks take issue with the idea that it could actually save $300 billion -- >> but he's got a point. the idea of not bidding that

out, you're never going to get lower prices. the same idea with importing drugs from other location, from canada or other foreign countries. one thing that a lot of americans think that is not fair that we might pay two, three, four times as much for a drug that is available somewhere else for less. which means americans is paying the bill for all of this great drug creation. and while we want to see the r&d out there, at the same time, you don't want to feel you're the only ones that are paying for it. >> that's an argument you hear outside the drug industry and inside the drug industry. and a lot of people argue that importing drugs from other countries is more of a workaround. >> because aren't we subsidizing those cheap drugs anyway? that's the point. so we would just be buying back the drugs we originally subsidized? i'm going to buy a $30,000 chevy, take it to canada, sell it for $20,000 and buy it back for $25,000 here. >> you fixed drug pricing.

>> now let's go get breakfast. when we return, a chance for your bracket to win $25 million. former nba star charles oakley will be joining us to talk bracketology and the big sweepstakes with "sports illustrated." a while to go before the opening bell. right now the dow futures are down by about 48 points. s&p future down by 7.5. the nasdaq down by 17. "squawk box" will be be right back.

we got another one. i have an orc-o-gram for an "owen." that's me. ♪ you should hire stacy drew. ♪ ♪ she wants to change the world with you. ♪ ♪ she can program jet engines to talk and such. ♪ ♪ her biggest weakness is she cares too much. ♪ thank you. my friend really wants a job at ge. mine too. ♪ i'm a wise elf from a far off shire. ♪ and sanjay patel is who you should hire. ♪ thank you. seriously though, stacy went to a great school and she's really loyal. you should give her a shot. sanjay's a team player and uh...

is a perfect score worth $25 million? one lucky ncaa fan with a perfect bracket, robert alexander, is the founder and president of kazang, and charles oakley, the cofounder and brand ambassador. guys, good morning. welcome. >> good morning. >> all right, charles, is anybody going to get a perfect bracket? i don't think it's ever happened. >> you know, it would be a big star, they get a lot of money. so, hopefully -- >> how do your -- by the way, i loved watching you play. you played when the knicks were swre interesting. now they're bad and boring. i can't decide which is worse. >> they were the number one gross team in the nba.

so sometimes money is better than -- >> without a coach hanging on somebody's ankle in the middle of a scrap. that's good basketball. how do your brackets do? >> my bracket, i do well. we'll have to wait and see. we stayed up all night in the past -- >> in the past? >> i made it sweet 16. it's tough. but, you never know. there's always that one person, whom we hope -- we find that one person this year that could make it. it will be great for us, k kizzang. >> why do this? >> it's something that mr. buffett tried once, $1 billion. this year, no one's really in it. you take all the big companies that are in it today and no one's offering anything other than $50,000. i figured this is a new way, we're a new sweepstakes company, brand-new in the marketplace, it's our first try at the bracket challenge and we'll see what happens. we hope we get a winner. it would be great press for us.

>> have you heard anything from ncaa? they're not huge fans, although we all love watching this and doing this, they're not huge fans. >> they're not huge fans of mine, or vegas, where our offices are. but they're really good at what they do. they put on a great show and we're just trying to give away some money that someone could win. but they're very tough. >> how does someone sign up? >> go to kizzang.com, we have everything on ios, android, facebook. give yourself a chance to win. >> so how does it work? behind the companies, insurance companies, how does that actually happen? >> it's an insurance company -- >> anbang? >> sorry that was from a previous segment. >> yeah. it's an insurance company. there's only two major insurance company s out there. if you don't use one, you've got to use the other. >> what kind of premium do they charge you? >> a lot of money. way too much money.

>> let's try to win this money. >> final four, who do you got? >> don't give me all number ones, either. >> i got a couple surprises. i like seton hall. i like michigan state. >> they always perform -- he preps them for march. >> the best coaches in the ncaa. i like oregon. >> are they for real? >> they're going to have a lot of colors. >> me too. >> what'd i say before the show began? i'm sick of thinking. i'm just going to go with every team with green in its uniform. >> i hope they don't do like the football team and get in the playoff, up 31 points -- >> is seton hall sort of your dark horse surprise team? >> i like seton hall. i like the way they play. they're a young team. they got a point guard to run the team, some guys that can play within themselves.

>> who's overrated? who's a fraud in the tournament? >> a fraud? >> i've got to pick a two-seed and they're going to go out in the first round? >> probably be villanova. >> everybody hates villanova because -- >> i don't hate them, but i see the way seton hall, the way they conduct themselves and they were number one and they ran them out of the gym. >> okay, you're on the record. if you want to win $25 million from kizzang, we're going with seton hall. charles oakley and robert alexander, a real pressure and good luck to everybody in the tournament and the sweepstakes. thank you, guys. when we come back, after suffering a heart attack and going through a heart transplant, united's new ceo oscar munoz is back at work today and he has a lengthy to do list. what's ahead for the airline and its boss, coming up after the break.

hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices.

order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "squawk box." this morning, united ceo oscar munoz is returning to work full-time after missing three months battling health issues. this morning, phil lebeau joins us now and he's got more. good morning. and i think i just mispronounced his wonderful name. >> say that again, andrew? >> go ahead, go ahead. >> i was saying, oscar munoz is going to be very busy right off the bat. in fact, he released a letter he sent to employees early this morning, essentially saying that his first real day is going to be sent meeting with the leaders of the labor unions. we'll talk more about that in a bit. he has been out since having heart transplant in january. he has taepded meetings in the

last month, but this is really beginning a full day-to-day in there 100% at the united headquarters and in all the operations around the country and around the world. on his agenda, three things. improve ual's performance. they started to do that a little bit, but they've got a long ways to go relative other airlines. handle the proxy war for board seats we've talked about for some time and get labor unions under contract and working together. here are the teamster mechanics after picketing last week, giving their thoughts on munoz and his outlook. >> he seems like he's a pretty decent, you know, ceo than what we had back in the past. but, you know, we hope he would do the right thing for us. >> i think we can work with oscar and i think that's the golden key here. we can work with oscar. i think oscar can make the difference here. we don't have to be doing this, we don't have to be going out on strike. okay, we can work this out and get this thing going. >> the past hasn't worked, so if he wants to step up, we're here and we're always willing to

talk. >> there are about 9,000 teamsters. when you look at shares of united over the last three years, they really are lagged relative to other airlines, though in the last six months, they have slightly outperformed delta and american. guys, back to you? >> okay, thanks, phil. coming up, $50 oil in may. that's the question. a closer look at an oil patch with the head of credit suisse. we're back in a moment. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

your money, your vote. the race for the white house runs through ohio and florida. the latest on rally violence, new poll results, and key endorsements, all straight ahead. a world of worry from terrorism to the refugee crisis, the brexit to the race. and march madness, why this year's ncaa tournament could cost american employers billions of dollars. the final hour of "squawk box," always number one in your bracket, begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box".

>> better. >> welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. this is cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> by the way, that song is -- look out the window. that's what dave was singing about. all the little ants marching as everybody commutes. >> here we go. everybody ready, monday morning. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and andrew sullivan, in for joe. all morning long, we've been looking at red arrows for the future. dow futures down about 50 points below fair value. s&p features off by 8. take a look at the markets in europe at this hour. in the early trading there, we have seen some green arrows. in fact, leading the pack through most of this has been the dax, which is still up by 1.4%. that may come as a surprise when you consider that over the weekend, angela merkel, her party was handed some setbacks, large lly because of her positi on immigration. but that market is up by 1.4%. the ftse is up by close to 0.6%.

let's tell you about some other stories investors will be talking about today. the biggest one, starwood receiving this unsolicited $76 per share takeover bid from a consortium of investors led by china's anbang insurance. china already has a deal in place to be bought by marriott, but this is going to raise the stakes and wehle see whether we have a bidding war ahead of us. also, grocery chain fresh market being bought by apollo global management for $1.63 billion, $28.50 per share. it follows fresh market's review of strategic options. the deal is a 24% premium over friday's close and 53% premium since thursday when speculation of that deal first surfaced. and we're watching oil prices this morning. take a look at crude right now on your screen. we're looking at wti now at $37.39. now to politics. five key primaries set for tomorrow, including the very important states of ohio and florida, which really could decide everything, guys. meantime, new polls this morning find donald trump ahead in florida and illinois, but john kasich holds an edge in his home

state of ohio. and today, former republican nominee mitt romney will campaign with kasich at two stops in ohio. he is not expected to go so far as to endorse kasich during the stops, but it will be the first time romney has campaigned with a candidate in his cycle. and it was a violent weekend on the campaign trail. protesters and arrests at trump rallies from chicago to kansas city. former presidential candidate and now trump supporter, ben carson, on the "today" show this morning. >> if the protesters continue with their ilenskiite tactics, there's a real possibility of escalation, because those who are the victims of them have two choices. they can submit to them and meekly just do whatever those protesters want them to do. or they can fight back. and if they decide to fight back, there could be an

escalation. >> we'll get more on the political landscape and what it means on the global stage if the next half hour when david miliband will join us here on set. that should be interesting. >> but not condemning the violence, oddly enough. >> well, look, there are two sides to all stories. >> but you can condemn violence, but who are you condemning here? >> you have a protester who's nonviolent but who rips up a flag or does something like that -- not a flag, but a posterboard or whatever -- >> their point -- >> the question is, is violence -- >> but trump supporters have said, look, we have a right to first amendment too, to our freedom of speech. >> right. >> and that's when you get into this crazy sort of back and forth on this whole situation. i would like to trump come out and say, i would not like to see this violence. >> i'm surprised trump hasn't, i'm surprised carson hasn't. i would think that reasonable people would say that the violence is a problem and somebody should be coming out and saying something. and instead, there seems to be this bizarre inciting of it, almost to suggest that, if, in fact, there are protesters, you

should hit them. which seems crazy to me. >> i don't know that's what they're saying, as much as, if somebody's in your face, defend yourself. >> that's -- you know. if someone's in your face, defend yourself. that's effectively saying, go hit them, right? that's what you're saying? >> what's the alternative? i'm not just -- >> the alternative is stepping back, is doing something -- i don't know -- >> stepping back where? i'm not -- i don't want to get -- people are going to take it all kinds of crazy? i'm just saying, if somebody's in your face screaming at you and calling you names, some people might react in a certain way. >> i get that. and to the degree -- >> i think you should -- by the way, you should condemn violence in general. i think peaceful, you know, resistance has always been proven to be the way that things get changed actually throughout street? >> right. >> take that back throughout history. i don't know who you condemn. everybody is point fingers at everybody else, but if it's always somebody else, maybe it's you. >> it would be nice to see

tensions de-escalate. >> i think people should respect everybody's views. and if somebody believes something different than you, no matter what that is, just respect that. it's not complicated. let's talk markets right now. let's talk global markets. our next guests was one of julian robertson's first tiger cubs. he was the brains behind some of the funds' legendary trades, such as betting on the collapse of the british pound, and the fallout of petroleum prices following the onset of persian gulf war, nice going, by the way. so what is he betting on next? let's try to find out. with us on set is david gerston. good morning. >> good morning. >> so, i gather, because we were just talking during the commercial break, you think things are a little high right now? >> yeah, i think that we've had a nice really back in stock prices, but you've got the fed unfriendly in the background. and multiples are fairly elevated at this juncture. i think the market might have a

little bit of upside, but not a whole lot. >> does that mean you're short? >> you have to be tactical. >> so what are you doing? >> well, i have some shorts out, yes. i have some puts, as well. that we put on. i think that -- >> put being a bet, by the way, that the market will fall. is that what you're doing? you're using the options market to say that if stocks fall, you'll profit? >> correct. >> are you doing that for the overall indices, or is that for a stock-by-stock basis? >> no, i think that on a medium-term basis, the indices probably are a little bit ahead of themselves. so, tactically, we've bought some puts. >> and what do you expect the fed to do? >> i don't expect them to do anything this week, i don't think anybody expects them to do anything. the question is, how tough they're going to talk. and you know, the unemployment rate is down to 4.9%. the core inflation rate is up at 1.7%. so the fed is probably likely to keep their rhetoric fairly

aggressive. >> right. >> and at the same time, recognize what's going on in the international environment. >> we'll get to the international environment in a second, but one domestic question. do politics matter at all? >> i think they matter a tremendous amount. you have a protectionist candidate on the republican side who's leading the field and you have hillary clinton on the opposite side, who seems to be somewhat anti-business as well. and the market has had a nice rally back. i think these are very important things. >> we were talking to ben white earlier about this. what do you think wall street -- who do you think wall street really wants? >> i think wall street wants the whole problem to go away. >> yeah. >> i don't think that these are good choices for wall street right now. >> is there one choice that's better than the other? from where you sit? no. >> strictly financially speaking? >> no, i think it's -- yeah, it's very difficult to do. i think it's a difficult environment. you have anti-business rhetoric,

really profrothing around, and that's not good for the market. >> when you say anti-business, you're talking about this anti-wall street fervor, you're talking about trade -- >> trade mexico, in particular. i think is quite worrying. >> and that's not just here in the united states? that's something you kind of see around the globe at this point? >> you have a lot of this around the globe at this point, and you have a lot of troubles around the globe at this point. you look at what's going on in europe with the migrant crisis and this is really putting up nationalist fervor in a number of different countries. >> right. >> talking about nationalist fervor, what do you make of the potential of a brexit and does that matter to you right now? >> i think it does matter. i think the potential is higher than the betting parlors are suggesting at this point. and, you know, if we had a brexit, i think that would be bad for nato. i think that would be bad for our markets. i think it would be bad, clearly, for the uk market. and for its currency.

>> where do you think oil's going? >> i think oil -- oil's a tough one, right? i mean, we've had significant cutbacks in production, but you've got a lot of production coming out of the middle east. i think it has a little further upside, but i wouldn't bet on dramatic upside. >> but so goes oil, so goes the stock market these days? to the extent that you think there's more upside, you think the market will travel with it? >> i think the market has a little bit of upside here, yes, but i don't think it's got a lot of upside. so i want to be clear about that. so i think that, you know, we may get another 100 points out of the s&p, to the upside. it's 5%. but i think that the medium term outlook is one that says that you need to be somewhat cautious. >> how long you talking when you say "medium term." because there are a lot of investors that probably aren't trading as actively as you are. they're looking at things and say, i'm not going to try to sell out every dip and get back in. if they're looking at things

over a longer term perspective, what would you tell them then? >> i think that the likely returns are going to be mediocre. we have a market that's at a fairly level of valuation, an economy that doesn't want to get up and sprint. i don't think can get up and sprint anymore. >> it's not doing terribly, though, at 2%. >> it's not doing terribly, but we've had some capital spending, productivity is mediocre, at best. and i think the secular stagnationists, you know, while perhaps a bit extreme, have a point, in terms of the inability of the economy to grow all that rapidly. >> how much of is that is ceos who don't have a lot of confidence and think, i'm going to hold off a little bit. >> you have a recession manufacturing, you've got relatively low capacity utility sedati

ization and manufacturing, so these ceos are more interested in buying back stock than committed to real capital spending. >> that is the problem. david, thank you. >> thank you. >> come on back. we've got to figure out what's going to happen here. >> thanks. >> thanks, david. when we return, decision 2016 bringing out some unusual bedfellows. we'll talk trade, tariffs and trump when "squawk box" comes right back. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store.

it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade.

they want to go into china, they can't.

trade and manufacturing among the red-hot topics in the news as the race to the white house heats up. richard fisher joins us this morning, with his perspective. he's barclays' senior adviser and of course the former deputy of u.s. trade representative and former dallas fed president. he's also a cnbc contributor. our very own rick santelli is right here in studio for the conversation, as well. and rick, great to see you. we rarely get to see you in studio. >> it's wonderful to be out here. >> it is. it's wonderful to have you here. richard, why don't we start with you. and just lay out what you think is happening here. because on both the right and the left, the candidates seem to be running from the idea of trade, that both democrats and republicans have supported over the last 20 years or so. what do you think of that? >> well, what a sharp change. you know, bill clinton ran for the presidency pro-nafta following up on george w.h. bush. i think we have to be very careful here and i'll give you the starkest explanation i can. protectionism is the crack cocaine of economics.

we know it gives you a high, but it can be super deadly economically speaking. there's a long history here. we know about smoot-hawley, the tariff imposed that deepened the great recession and drove the world into depression. but followed by france and spain and others, benjamin harrison who ran for the presidency on a protectionist, high-tariff, same kind of rhetoric you hear today. he won, and we went into one of the great depressions of all time known as the long depression that lasted longer than the great depression we talk about. so i think we have to be very careful here. and on this rhetoric you hear, particularly from the extreme right and extreme left, the donald trumps and the sanders, let me just give you numbers to put it in perspective. we produce $2.7 trillion in manufactured goods in the united states. we export $1.3 trillion. so more than half of that total manufactured goods output is exported to other countries.

you've got to be very careful, talking about using terms like fair trade. we all want fair trade. i negotiate a lot of those deals to make sure we were treated equally, but you know, you start cutting things off, and talk about, you're going to use cut off and use extreme rhetoric of donald trump vis-a-vis china. we sell over half our manufactured goods abroad. so, i think we have to be very careful here. and by the way, benjamin harrison's election was brokered at the republican convention. >> history repeating itself. >> it always does. >> richard, let me ask you, though, there are a lot of americans who feel like they have been left behind. i've steeen statistics recently over the weekend, reading some stuff, that suggested that 3 million jobs were lost in the united states when china joined the wto, and they said that $700,000 jobs were lost when nafta came about. and most of those jobs, 75%, were in manufacturing. are there groups of people being left behind in this? >> of course, but i'm not sure

it's trade related. let me give you the nafta figures. our manufacturing exports have grown and are about $900 billion to the nafta parks. jobs are created and jobs are lost. i fault the bad fiscal policy of federal government, across the board. so, obviously, we have to have educational retraining programs, we also have to have good fiscal policies that creates jobs or encourages job creation by the private sector. so i don't think it's as easy -- you can take those gross numbers, attribute them to trade, but it has to doed with a broader economic performance of the economy. and especially, the really lousy job that the congress of the united states, the republicans, democrats, and the presidents have done, especially this recent many years. >> so richard, rick santelli there. >> rick, what a great first name. z >> so it's bad financial policy. i don't disagree with that. but i think the organization you used to hang your jacket in really enabled them to be as bad

as they've gotten. >> you're talking about the federal reserve? >> absolutely. absolutely. i'm a parent -- >> well, we don't disagree on that, rick. low interest rates have allowed the federal government to get away with murder. fiscal murder. >> i agree. listen, on globalization -- >> i don't think you can blame it on trade. globalization -- >> globalization has dark sides. i find it so unique when you read american papers, we have problems. read the same issues in europe and the same issues around the globe. when are our politicians going to be honest with us, whether it's about entitlements or globalization? there's a dark side to globalization. for others who like to shop the walmart, dollar general and dollar stores, they're seeing it realtime. you can't have your cake and eat it to. it's like water from one room to the next. it's like the "titanitn"titani,t lists, water finds its own level, the lowest level. it's this globalization thread,

especially the more developed kplis, they should also gall ge together and realize, they have a shared problem. >> rick, that's a great lecture, you ought to go on the circuit, because you're right. but the problem is, you close this down -- imagine if we had done this back in the old days. we would still be a farming nation. now, i love farmers. it's only 1% of our employment now. we still produce more food than anybody else in the world. so you have to adapt forces. but you have to adjust your fiscal policy to your spending policy to counter whatever the negative influences are. so, i understand that. but just blaming it on trade, per se, is a very dangerous path to go. we know that from history. we know what happened with smooth smoot halley. >> everybody knows 1937, it was that little increase by the federal reserve that caused it. >> it was a factor of both. that was benjamin strong.

you're right. by the way, it was the new york fed, not the dallas fed. >> i'm being quite facetious. i think anyone who thinks that that was the problem is really missing it. but i'm sure they're going to have a lot of revisionism with this time period, as well. >> keep in mind, we have quadrupled our manufacturing goods since 1980. hof over half of what we manufacture in the united states, we all want to have manufacturing, that's what we talk about, over half of that is exported to other countries. you cut off other countries from coming in here, they'll cut us off from going in there. we want manufacturing jobs. these are good, hard-working jobs that pay good wages. and you can't just cut this stuff off and use the rhetoric that the extreme right and the extreme right is using here. >> even -- >> you have to be very careful -- >> even some of the center, richard, pretty much many of the candidates seem to play to that tune. >> you don't hear anybody that's really defending. >> it's really a shame. that's why politics is such a nasty business.

>> we had two great presidents on trade. george h.w. bush and bill clinton. and then before that, it -- grover cleveland, who came back to defeat harrison to undo the damage that was done by harrison this is in the holdies, late 1880. so, you know, we've had a republican and a democrat, and it was brave of bill clinton to run the way he did. i wish that other candidates, including his own wife, had that kind of toughness to them in just saying, look, this is what we're going to complete, it's what we're going to do, it's good for america, and we have to re-educate our workforce and tax people differently to channel them in another direction, so they can adapt and have jobs. >> but i like richard -- it's brian sullivan -- what you said, too. let's try to leave on an optimistic note, which is that history repeats itself. i know things seem absolutely nuts right now, and in some ways they are. but, you know we've been -- 1912, we've had parties dissolve. things happening and america's still here. >> it's a great country and it's a wonderful place to be,

especially in texas. >> this, too, shall pass. >> richard, thanks for joining us. rick, great to see you. coming up, when we return, beyond march madness to nba greats weighing in on more than just the tournament. charles pbarclay talk money, economics, and their biggest financial mistakes, back in a moment we needed 30 new hires for our call center.

i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. (announcer) over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. and now you can use ziprecruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2

. for all this talk about march madness, it's about to get

pretty expensive for bosses around the country. every hour spent on march madness could cost employers a total of nearly $4 billion in lost productivity. nearly 51 million people are expected to participate in office pools this year. but employers should think twice pfr trying to rein it in. that could result in long-term damage to employee morale, which could far outway the short-term benefit to productivity. march madness officially does kick off today. nba greats and basketball commentators charles barclay and grant hill spoke to us about education, basketball, and even the economy. eric joining us now more with more. sounds like a pretty wide-ranging conversation. and please don't tell me that grant hill pulled a homer and went with duke, because they don't have it this year. >> he didn't get into his march madness picks, because we asked him more cnbc-type questions. stuff about the economy and their financial mistakes, a little bit of politics, too. so, if you actually talk to

charles barclay about all the money entering the game, their own past experiences, here's what sir charles had to say about paying athletes additional money on top of their free scholarships, which has been a long-standing issue. >> i don't think you should ever undervalue the price of a free college education. you know how many people in this country are in debt because they couldn't get a free education and they're going to be in debt for life. one of the great scams in this country is what these kids pay to go to college. i think it's a travesty what they charge in america for kids to go to college. the really cool thing about playing sports is you do get a free education. >> it sounds a little bit like bernie sanders, right? about the free education and all this kind of thing. but separate from that, grant hill, he still stung by the 2008 recession. and he's still talking about it today. so take a listen to this. >> i don't forget the emotions and the feelings and how the thought was that, you know, the world is coming to an end, at least in the financial markets,

and things are better now. hopefully, once the election, you know, cycle happens and we have a winner, you know, in the federal election, that, you know, things will stabilize a little bit. >> and i thought the best answers from both of them were about their personal financial mistakes. both of them gave good answers, especially barclay's. got to listen to this. >> the biggest financial mistake i made is trusting people with money. i think no matter who handles your money, you shouldn't trust them totally. you should get them audited. my first agent was a scumbag. he stole all my money. >> buying cars. you know, i try to be safe and diversified and so, you swing for singles and doubles and not have too much exposure in one particular market. >> so there you have it. either your agent's a scumbag or you buy too many cars. obviously, both of them, they'll

be part of the broadcast that starts tomorrow night across four different channels. >> very exciting. >> when joe's back, there will be a conversation to be had. the corporate story of the morning to talk about. starwood hotel getting an unsolicited takeover bid by a consortium of investors led by china's anbang insurance. patrick scholes lodging and equity -- i'm told he's not on the line just yet. we're going to try to get him on the line right now. but one of the biggest issues -- and we should say this, by the way. it was $76 a share, but we weren't really adding into that, in terms of the conversation -- >> what was $76 a share? >> that was the bid. >> the bid -- the new bid? >> the new bid. but it's $76 plus 5.50. put that on top of it because of the additional spin. that spin happens irrespective, because that was going to happen with the marriott transaction adds well. >> despite my earlier skepticism, if you make an offer for a company it's bound and

you're going to have to pay up. if our viewers are just joining us, and we had a discussion earlier about this anbang insurance company, which has come out of nowhere. they did $3 billion in deals last year. now there's $20 billion in deals and offers on the table this morning. that's a company with $270 million in assets, whatever it is. >> billion in assets. >> yes. which only had $60 million 12 years ago. >> it's an amazing thing. >> color me a little skeptical. >> skeptical of what's going on in china. >> yes. >> in the meantime, let's talk to patrick scholes, who's joining us on "squawk news." what do you make of this? >> it's very interesting here. i didn't really see this one coming. and as i look at the bottom line here, it really says to me, you know, do you take the equivalent of $82 from anbang and sort of take your quick profit and get out, or do you stay with marriott, which will get about the equivalent of $70, and you continue to believe in the lodging cycle and the synergies

that marriott can create here. and, you know, i think there's a lot of other things investors have to consider. you know, is -- well, is anbang good for the money? they probably are, but there's no guarantee. secondly, is there going to be u.s. regulation that might hold that type of transaction up. >> and when you're talking about u.s. regulation, you're talking about cifius. they already got through with their waldorf transaction. and they have this other transaction today, talk about a land grab, with blackstone. so you think it's going to be the collection of so many of these assets that would raise flags? >> absolutely. there's no guarantee -- until these things are done, there's no guarantee that it will go through. and then the last thing, if you're an investor and you're owning starwood stock, you have to think, well, this is probably a taxable event for you, as opposed to owning marriott, where you're -- it's a non-taxable event. >> so, patrick, let me put you -- i'm putting you on the independent committee of

starwood, right now. you're on the board. you advise them to do what? >> i would try to get higher offers from both of them. i think you want to try to push for a bidding war. >> but would you take the anbang offer or no? >> at $82? probably not. but, i don't think anbang is going to lead with their highest offer, you know, that's not how negotiations work. and i think what you're going to try to do is get anbang to come up and marriott to come up. >> patrick scholes, if the analyst thing doesn't work out, you can become a banker. thank you very much. >> see you soon. when we return, british politician and humanitarian david miliband is here. we'll get his take on europe's refugee crisis. the risk of a brexit, and much, much more. "squawk box" will be right back.

your path to retirement... may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. it's more than tit's security - and flexibility. it's where great ideas and vital data are stored. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions from a trusted it partner. including cloud and hosting services -

all backed by an industry leading broadband network and people committed to helping you grow your business. you get a company that's more than just the sum of it's parts. centurylink. your link to what's next. hey how's it going, hotcakes?

hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. welcome back, everybody. among today's top geopolitical stories, angela merkel's conservative party suffering big losses in regional elections over the weekend. voters protesting the government's open refugee policy. joining me is david miliband, president and ceo of the international rescue committee, which aids refugees around the world. he's also the former foreign

secretary for the united kingdom. the refugee crisis was front and center and it seems to have died off slightly, but that may be because over the winter, there were fewer refugees crossing -- >> 400 people died in the mediterranean over the winter, but the flow of refugees has slowed down, largely because the germans have been talking to the turks about a significant aid package and more of the refugees being held in turkey, which already has $2.5 million refugees. but you can see the political instability, as a result of a failure to address this humanitarian catastrophe. i actually have a different view of the german results than most people. i think it's far less catastrophic for mrs. merkel than people say. she lost some support from her own party to the hard right. frankly, a lot of people who won were supporting her in different parties. so i think it's premature to be talking about her end, but the refugee crisis certainly isn't over. >> how do we fix it? or is it too little to fix it? this is a problem that has been building for so long. >> the fix only comes when the war stops, obviously, so until you can stop the syrian war,

then you're going to have a hell of a lot of people coming out of that country. amazingly, if you had me in three weeks ago and said to me, is this cease-fire going to hold, i would have said, probably not. but it's actually held better in more parts of syria, not all of it, but more parts of it, than most people would have guessed. that's providing some hopefully more than territory reprieve at the moment. temporary reprieve, both for the people inside the country. we've got 2,000 staff inside syria doing water, sanitation, basic work to keep people alive, and they're having a reprieve, they're able to reach places they weren't able to reach before. >> who's the biggest holdup? which side is the biggest holdup in trying to find a more permanent solution? >> well, at the moment, the assad regime backed by the russians and the iranians have obviously got the upper hand in significant parts of the country. but frankly, isis' control in the center and east is not being challenged. so you're having a de facto division of the country. the people who are being squeezed are those who neither

for assad nor for isis. >> i was going to ask you about the uk. and whether you think this forebodes anything in terms of a brexit. >> you mean the german result? >> the german result and what that may say about the state of mind in europe? >> i think a bit like the u.s., it's polarized. that's what you're seeing in politics around the world. polarized and splintered, because the traditional big parties are breaking up a bit. people are going to third and fourth politics. i think in the uk, the issue will crystallize in the next couple of months because the risks of jumping out are huge, compared to the cost of staying in the eu. >> what do you say it is right now, about a 50/50 chance? >> i think it's tight. my view is there's a risk we'll get it wrong and pull out. but generally -- my own view is that it would be very, very dangerous to pull out and the risks are all in that direction. >> i think we would like to believe as a society, we're smarter than previous generations. i think every generation thinks that. but we are, unfortunately, we've

shown that time and again, look at the violence going on over the weekend, that we're not. that we make the same mistakes all the time. when you look at what's going on in continental europe, how worried are you right now about the rise of the far right? >> well, it would be stupid to be complacent, but if you're implying a link back to the 1930s, i don't think that's the right prism to see things. when a far right party gets 15% of the vote in germany regional elections, you take that seriously. when a french politician is on 25% in france, you take it seriously. >> you agree it's enough to be taken seriously. >> look at what's happening in greece. the golden dawn. >> the right prism is not the rise of a global fascist movement. it should be really taken seriously. and the key is, the parties of center right and center left have got to update their politics and their policies, in the same way that center right and center left here have got to do the same. >> what is the european assessment of our election right now? you talk to people, what is the

conversation -- i want to know. the diplomatic version or -- >> give us the -- don't be polite. >> people are shaking their heads, because they were told there's no way donald trump can become the republican nominee. and now he looks like he's going to become the republican nominee. then they say, there's no way he can become president. he's not spent the money. what they are diagnosing is, or seeing is a lot of fury. and people are scratching their heads. this is a country that has eare bounded from the financial crisis better than others. it's a country that has had longer continuous growth, unemployment below 5%, et cetera. the big issue, obviously, is who's getting the gains off those -- >> and those headlines always tell the story. there are still a lot of people who feel like they've been left behind. >> they certainly do. and i think that is something that's a big issue in europe, as well. but here, the election now people are saying, are there any rules anymore? >> let me ask you, back to the refugee crisis. we know that there's this potential for an aid package

come through. we know that there's this plan for a one for a one, with turkey. but you, yourself, have pointed out that that deal doesn't incentivize turkey or any other nations to keep more refugees from coming to europe. >> no, the one for one, if it means literally what it says, that for every refugee turkey can get out, then gets another out, that's not a good incentive system. i think the truth is that the aid package for turkey, jordan, lebanon will have to be bigger. i think that the relocation package in europe will have to be more substantial. and all countries around the world are going to have to take the most vulnerable. even this country has taken less than $10,000 refugees. the administration's at 10,000 a year. these people are victims of terrorism. we meet them every day in syria, in turkey, in lebanon, greece, where we have a team as well, and the last thing they want is to become terrorists. they are victims of terrorists. and unless the world comes together for them, it's going to spill into politics everywhere. >> how hopeful that we do reach

a solution, one side or the other? >> it would be absurd for me to be optimistic about the situation inside -- >> can you resolve the syrian crisis with assad in power? >> the russian bet is you can, and the american bet is that you can't. the only way to do it would be to have a formal division of the country. that's no one wants. >> david, thank you so much for joining us. >> good to see you. when we come back, could oil prices hit $50 by may? credit suisse says yes and now's the time to profit from it. we'll see whether stocks follow suit. you're watching "squawk box" right here on msnbc. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data

and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ i'm spending too muchs for time hiringnter. and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards with a single click.

then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. (announcer) over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. and now you can use ziprecruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2

credit suisse out saying that oil could continue to defy investor sentiment, climbing as high as $50 a barrel by may. so, what should investors do to profit, if this rally does continue? deon stewart, head of credit suisse energy research joining us now. okay, what's the risk to your $50 thesis? >> two-way risk, always, right? we can go down first. there are still inventories building in america. the american fundamentals are not great. global fundamentals are improving. biggest risk there, global recession. i think that risk is fading >> i was up in north dakota last week and the one thing that scared me a bit was while production has come down and well counts, rig counts have come well down, there are over a thousand ducts drilled, but uncompleted wells, waiting to go. if prices do continue to rise,

what's the risk of north dakota, texas, saudi arabia, others starting to produce more, because of the higher prices, and, thus, sending prices back down. >> that's part of the risk, a so-called soft cap. and there are, indeed, inventories all over the place, including ducts. ducts are a form of inventory, really. >> future inventory, yeah. >> all those ducts get completed, maybe two, three months worth of extra production out of that. in a falling production environment. so, you should be able to deal with that. perhaps not today. two, three, four months, easily. >> do you think that, you know, we talk about saudi arabia and maybe the war on shale, here. but, do you feel that saudi arabia is going to produce more oil in part just because of their fierce hatred of iran, frankly? >> there is that risk. when we initiate our forecast in january, we said there are two big various risks. one, global recession. two, saudi and other producers over-produ over-producing. but what they did on february

16th, i think, is significant. because they basically signaled, we are no longer in the squash the oil market game. we are in the, i quote, stabilize and improve oil market game. that could get interesting. >> you know, i was in houston a couple of weeks ago, also, and the saudi oil minister, i mean, said to a rather stunned group of people, by the way, there's no cut. there's no free -- nobody can agree. he admits that opec had sort of been neutered. do you think they have? >> yeah, that's not quite what he was admitting to, right, neutering and stuff, that would not be very politically correct. but what he did say was, now, no cut. future, there is a process. we do not know where this is going. when he said -- >> well, he said there was no trust. >> that's true. >> if there's no trust, can you all get into a room together and say, you cut, you cut -- >> you know what's funny? they got into a room. i didn't think they would get to a hotel. they got in room. >> that shows the desperation. >> absolutely. they are not happy at 20 bucks. >> but their problem has been, even when they've gotten close

to an agreement, they said, we need the north american producers to cut too. and there's no way -- >> the only way the north american producers cut is like now when prices come down. >> and they have no fun and they get no money. >> right. >> what's -- can you look out five years? >> sure. will i be right? no. but i'll look out, sure. >> throw it out there. throw out a number for oil, five years there now. >> five years, i think it's going to be closer to $80 than to $30. >> because the world is using more petroleum products, not just in cars, but in everything, chemicals, roofing products, building displays. >> demand growth will be with us for a little while to come. there's a new tesla in store around the corner in brooklyn. tesla is coming, but there are a boat load of cars on the road that are not teslas. there are still a lot of people looking to get into a car, about 4 billion or so. and the technology isn't quite there for everybody else. the demand side, kind of all right. what people don't get is how much it takes to keep the oil

coming out of the ground. we saw it at 30. doesn't work for anyone, anyone. even the russians and the saudis have to get into a room, right? so, when production begins to fall, when natural decline sets in, as it is doing as it is doing now, you need to sanction big new multibillion dollar oil products. we can't do that at 50. we couldn't do it to 110 three years ago. >> we won't hold you to 80, but it's an optimistic number. >> coming up, jim cramer joins us from the new york stock exchange. the dow futures down close to 50 points, the s&p 500 down by 8, and nasdaq down by 18. like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage? or child care?

aflaaac! and everyday expenses? aflac! learn about one day pay at aflac.com/boat blurlbrlblrlbr!!! with extraordinary offersmance on the exhilarating is... the thrilling gs... and the powerful rc coupe. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection.

welcome back to "squawk box" and let's get back down to the new york stock exchange where jim cramer joins us. this starwood deal, what do you do? do you take the money? >> i think the people that run starwood wanted to really get rid of it. the marriott deal, i had both ceos on at the time, the marriott deal wasn't worth as

much money. your guest was right, this is an opening bid. i don't know if the chinese have that kind of money but they're taking advantage of where i felt starwood management gave away the store. seemed so wrong, that deal. >> do you think marriott can come back with a higher bid? >> marriott i think was trying to steal the company. i don't think there was a bidding war. they had this stub that was involved for a timeshare thing. i think marriott would be thrilled to walk away from the thing at this point. worldwide travel has not been picking up. marriott bought it so cheap. they have room to pay more. >> separate question, we talked to ben white this morning. he tried to correlate the volatility in the market s wis the elections. people have been saying whether

it's oil, brexit or the fed. they haven't talked about the election. do you think the election and what's going on has an impact on things? >> i think february 10 marked the bottom. that's when bernie sanders beat hillary in new hampshire. people said if this thing is going to be run by the far left it's a very bad thing for the market. after that hillary figured out a new strategy and she won. since then i don't think there's been anything that is monument the except the markets going higher because i think people feel hillary clinton is a known factor. doesn't mean she's good for the market. a lot of her principles are not good for whole sectors. but she's known. and there's no one in the republican party that would be against higher stock prices while -- though trump is against private equity -- >> are you going to hit this gw pharma story? >> the way for doctors to

prescribe actual marijuana as opposed to the oregon stores and other stores which may be laced with ketamine. even though it's for a small subset, doctors will prescribe canabanoid. this stuff is made in britain, it's a felony to make this stuff here. >> this stock has doubled this morning on positive drug trial results. >> it's really big. big short squeeze, too. this is the way doctors would be able to prescribe it because it's uniform. they will give it for off-label use. the insurance companies won't pay for it. finally doctors will feel confident enough in new york and new jersey to say we know it's pure. it's the lack of purity and the lack of dosing that made it so it wasn't being -- marijuana was not going to take off. >> thank you, my friend. see you on "squawk on the street" in a minute. coming up, the biggest stock movers, of which gw pharma might

be one. and a weekend win for disney. big box office bucks and maybe sash that barron cohen's not big bucks. and throw things less? (mumbles) i've apologized several times. so. who's ready to share? ok. i mean i'm a sinister, world-conquering, artificially intelligent robot. me too, and one day i wake up and it's like... it's like the world doesn't need us anymore. exactly! yeah! yeah! totally! i can hear you hurting. wait! what's he doing here? hello! my name is watson. (groans) i invited watson here today to confront the source of our anxiety. ugh! i am a cognitive system. i can understand reason and learn with humans. with humans! i don't want to work with humans. yea, that's not what i'm passionate about. i understand seven languages so i can help people collaborate. collaborate? we dominate! my evil plans, ruined! i just wanna dust! rerouting.

why don't we take a break, alright? we'll just have some coffee and donuts... i'm eating my feelings. every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

we'll be with you shortly.. yeah right... xerox predictive analytics help companies provide a better and faster customer experience. hello mr. kent. can i rebook your flight? i'm here! customer care can work better. with xerox. wait i'm here! mr. kent? (gasp) shark diving! xerox personalized employee portals help companies make benefits simple and accessible... from anywhere. hula dancing? cliff jumping! human resources can work better. with xerox.

cannabinoid. disney's animal kingdom, "zootopia" claimed the number one spot for the second week in a row. i had too much coffee. thank you for having me on this morning. >> thank you for being here. we'll see you later this afternoon and you'll be back tomorrow afternoon. >> i won't leave television. >> that does it for us for now. now time for "squawk on the street." good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. after four weeks higher, stocks set up for a big week. a fed meeting, bank of japan, tuesday's political primaries, and some m&a on this monday. we'll get to that. europe is higher for the moment. ten-year yield shy of two. and oil is down as iran says leave us alone on production. anticipation ahead of the fed this week what investors are expecting. >> starwood hotels