>> the volume still needs to come out and show itself, if you will. thank you guys so much. we'll let you go watch basketball. "fast money" begins right now. you've got to watch "fast money." overlooking new york city in times square. tonight on fast, the man who called the rally in gold is back. you will not believe where he sees the yellow metal heading next. the shocking call that could have major implications for the market. a biotech blood bath. on track for its worst quarter since 2002. is there any hope for a turn-around. oil topping 40 bucks a barrel since early december. one widely followed strategist said do not buy the hype. he'll tell you what has him so worried about this rally in crude. first, we start with a historic day with stock, closing out with the highs of the session, turning positive for the year.

2,000-point loss at the beginning of 2016, the biggest quarterly comeback since 1933. the new highs come in this year and what to you do with your portfolio. >> it's impressive. no denying it at all. february 11th at 2:30 in the afternoon, the s&p, here we are 240 points later. tim's been on it. congratulations. it's been a great call. i'm not certain we can continue this trajectory. it's just too much. but i'll say this, you had some other areas participate today. financials up a percent. that's good news. on the down side, i'll say this, the oil volatility index on the day it should have gone down, was up 5%. now, a month or so ago, we saw a big day when the ovx closed lower. that sort of signaled the beginning of this upside to crude. i wonder on a day it goes up, does it indicate the end on the up side. >> we can't omit the crush in the dollar that we saw today

helping all of this. >> i think this gave this a lot more room, actually. to be clear, i'm out here saying valuations aren't that interesting. i think credit is tightening a bit. but all the things we had in early january, china commodities credit, consumers, all the things that were proving to be ultimately i think black swans, in many cases, that's how the market was playing them. the dollar has responded. at one point it was thought to be the only place the fed could push things around and maybe control some of the global risk. the reality is, central bank divergence is nowhere near what people thought it was. the fed is in the same place as the ecb, the boj, and the bank of china. they said they will not deval the currency anytime soon. they said, you are not going to have this as a wrecking ball. and china, i think, wrestled central bank policy away from the feds starting back in august. it means a lot of these reverse in trades, and mark will talk

about those, i think in some cases are very, very long deep-seeded trade that have only just started to move. you don't sell commodities when they're expensive. you don't buy them when they're cheap. emerging markets in the first inning of a reversing trade against the s&p. >> you know, i think tim's on on the g-20. i think you have to compare the monetary versus fiscal stimulus. then it was the china national congress, the ecb, and the fed. you've got a lot of the headwind, or headline risk out of the way. i don't know if we're stuck here. i do know it's about crude. i do know that crude at $40 means a hell of a lot to the market. people unwinding the trade short equities had to buy the commodity. i think you've got to buy the market if it holds. >> you said you didn't think crude would ever get above 50 again. >> no, i said near term. >> you said crude would never get above $50 ever. >> near term. near term.

it's $40. it's not $50. near term, it was a hell of a run we've seen in crude. i don't think we're going to trade above $50. >> ever. >> near term. you're not getting it. >> he -- steve did say, i shouldn't have used the word ever. he said i don't think in the near term. just not -- >> anyway -- >> i was trying to get a clarification. >> we're clear. >> so here's the thick, in january, one point in early february, and you didn't move your feet and you're nervous about things, what do you do with your portfolio, i think there are a lot of things that did change. with ehad a lot of tension on the economieses the markets. it abated in the last month or so. i would say it's reevaluation. you almost have a re-do here. we're still in a pretty defined youb trend here. and i think the last leg of this rally that we've had over the last few weeks has been on very low volume.

we've made a series of lower lows. when i look at the s&p 500 and russell 2,000 in particular, if you were a little nervous, if you thought you had too much risk, because i do believe we're still -- >> what happened if you sat out the rally. i bought out your group today. i thought people would be reaching. we heard from janet yellen yesterday that the rates are going no place. apparently going no place forever. i bought out your -- i don't like the way that sharp looks. i think it's a little too steep. philip morris, relative strength index. m.o., not overbought. i got one. >> what would you say to buy? >> i think you've got to stay with the gold traders. a dicey day, but i do think the bond market continues to go higher, meaning yields go lower. i think some of the stocks we've talked about breaking up, coca-cola specifically seems to be breaking out to the upside. >> to me, i think you stick with some of the bum abouter stocks.

a lot of the mult about ti nationals, the dollar has found a peak. year over year, the dollar is down 5%. we've been talking for the last 18 months about the dollar's move. that is washtd, by the way. the dollar has been largely sideways and now down year over year. they're ones you stay with in this environment. >> he's considered one of wall street's most accurate forecasters, and when he speaks, the markets move. if you listened to him back in february, your portfolio could have picked up some big gains. listen. >> we were thinking that dollar will at some point need to weaken. the fed will need to fully align more with the rest of the world. which would then help the commodity sector. i highlighted gold specifically. >> now mark is making some new predictions op gold stocks on the dollar. even the donald.

jpmorgan's head of quantitative and derivative research. great to have you with us. we did see the rally in commodities, we did see the rally in gold and the fed move more in line with market expectations. now what, and let's start off with gold. >> you point at gold was a little bit of a weakening of the dollar and the fed diverging. what i'm thinking now is we'll see more of this convergence of the fed with the rest of the world ecb, boj. that should put some downward pressure on the dollar and be supportive of gold. back in december, the first time i was here, the gold was the most short. microfunds were short. momentum was very strong. now gold momentum is positive. so cts has closed their shorts. they're actually going long. etf base tends to be sticky in gold. so i would stay with the straight. i would stay with the value

asset. gold is one of them. these assets will benefit from sort of a fed marginally underdelivering the ecb and boj, and that should put the pressure on the dollar. it should give them to boost to commodity markets and gold is one of the benefits. >> the momentum trade in gold, you made the point when it comes to equities, that momentum lasts longer than you think. so what are we seeing right now? and does this happen that the upswing in equities since february 11th could see more upside? >> in terms of equities, basically in january, in early february, the momentum vefs were short s&p. if you look at the cpa positions, they're max out on their shorts. they covered most of their shorts. they're roughly neutral now. where are we now in terms of the potential closes, let's say the market goes 2050 or 2075, you could have another leg of momentum to these investors. that's not too far from where we

are. on the down side, to break the s&p momentum, you would have to go lower. it's easy to reach the upside than the downside. i would reiterate that a big part of this move, since february 10th to now, has been on account of these systematic flows. so more technical in nature, although risk slightly might be on the up side than down side, i would say it's probably that in terms of potentially having maybe 5% up side and 10% down side. it doesn't look that great. the reason for that, pause of the two aspects. you have momentum stocks and value stocks. there will be huge moves between those two. in march, we saw some standardization moves in terms of momentum stocks selling off. year-to-date, momentum versus value, 41%. it's a staggering number.

you can't tell just by the price, but there's market moves going on. >> let's talk the donald at this point. so many people come on our show, or they go on tv and say, you know what, a trump presidency would mean down 20% on the s&p 500. we had one guy come on and say down 50% over four years of his presidency. what would you say? you're saying basically it's impossible at this point. >> i think it's very tough to say. you know, if you look at the various policies, or policy proposals, suggestions, you know, some of them are bullish for equity. but more importantly, i think a lot of these will be changed from now to the election date. if he is indeed the candidate of the party, he'll probably shift it around, his view, and moderate it. it's hard to predict. you need to look at a stock that may not change. that resonates both with -- both sides of the aisle. that's what is most likely to survive. one theme there is basically this whole thing of protecteding

jobs. sort of a trade protections. and that one is likely to stay there. what could be sort of impact of that. let's -- the equities, but more on currency. generally the u.s. dollar could be under some pressure if you have this type of policy, the risk of this type of policy. and fixed income, i agree with that. we had a report published. also, one could look by extension on equities that could be sensitive to these type of ideas. so firms that are heavily relying outsourcing, or importing, manufacturing goods, or global trade, look how the risk premium involves these names. >> thank you for coming by. >> thank you. >> marko, thank you. >> i don't think gold is necessarily just a weak dollar play. i think it's a play on currencies. you can now say you're seeing it globally. i think people come to the

realization, it's not an inflation hedge, a currency play per se, to me it's a new currency play. >> let me just say this. we talked about the weaker dollar. we talked about the dovish fed that we had. this is the playbook that actually worked really well in the years running up to the last couple here. you bought that sort of dovish talk. but for me, it's not particularly bullish for u.s. equities right now. i know a lot of u.s. multi-nationals will wen benefited from the weaker dollar year over year. fedex is relying on the u.s. consumer, and a secular shift in the ecommerce. look at caterpillar on the flip side, where are they going to get their growth? it's going to be emerging markets and china. to me, i think that's the problem here with u.s. equities, and it doesn't set up particularly well, because the playbook has run its course. >> breaking news op jpmorgan. >> it's not that often that we see about a capital return program addition or hype at a

bank, especially a big one. but in this case here, jpmorgan chase shares up by about half a percent, light volume so far in the afterhours trade. still, the company has added $1.88 billion to its existing share buyback program. the important note here is that the firm, jpmorgan, has received a non-objection from the board of governors of the federal reserve system. of course, a lot of the big banks, they have to get signoff before they can increase dividends or payback in stock repurchases. that's the news update for you right now. back over to you. >> dom chu, thank you. we made a big deal when dimon pot stock back in february. do we make a big deal here? >> just because investment banks don't have the same business model they had a couple of years

ago, i think which will continue to stay relatively flat, because the mna activity is coming down and we know the private equity, it doesn't matter. these guys, it's a credit perspective. these guys are much healthier than people say they are. the four cs, credit, china, consumers, commodities, much better than people had them. >> i think a huge headwind still at the banks right now. i sold my bank of america. i sold it a couple of weeks ago. i thought they would be stagnant, sideways basically. so jpmorgan is down 10% year-to-date. citi is down 17%. bank of america down 20%. they're all down. they're probably not going to track new money coming into it. i think people are chasing dividends and growth. i'm not sure you're going to get it with banks. >> everything timmy just said is spot-on. february 11th was the headline the stock closed at 54-ish. 59 now. it's basically mirrored the move in the broader market. not like it's necessarily talking about jpmorgan

outperforming the broader markets. >> its-actually underperformed. >> a lot of things going on. >> there's going to be less profitable in this environment. they're just not going out of business. i don't think they'll topple the rest of the world. >> since february 11th, banks overall have underperformed. >> they have. but with that said, to tim's point, there are still some headwinds for the banks. not the least of which a yield curve, in my opinion, it's going to continue to invert. >> up next, one mega cap industrial sending a big warning to the world. the stock is rallying. we'll take you behind the market mystery and what it could mean for the broader markets. a group of stocks on track for their worst quarter since 2002. we'll let you know if there's any hope for a turn-around. crude topping $40 a barrel for the first time since december. vo: know you have a dedicated

advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems?

man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems. welcome back to "fast money." move over, marty mcfly, the

self-tying shoes, nike calling adaptive lacing technology which can automatically adjust the snug fit of your shoe. snugness, not smugness. >> oh. >> mark parker had this to say about the much-hyped sneaker today on cnbc. >> i think there's a wide range of people that are really interested in this whole self-lacing adaptive performance. obviously you have the sneaker heads who are all over it. this has been a buzz for them for years. it was actually a write-in petition tonight to power through and get the power laces in a product. so it's great to be able to put a product out there that is a step toward the future of adaptive performance. >> we should also note, nike has not yet given any indication of the price of this self-lacing

shoe just yet. >> it's cool. >> you know, the down side of it is -- >> did you buy a pair? >> i think i would. but i do know how to tie any shoes. the down side of it is, let's think about our children and our grandchildren. think about what they're not going to be able it to do. they're not going to have to drive cars, or tie shoes. you're a big math girl at harvard. they're not going to worry about math. they're not going to worry about spelling. there are a list of things they're not going to be able to do. >> you're saying the future is going to be lazy and incompetent. >> flat on year right now, but they were the original fitbit. the original guys, the fuel band, that's what it was called. they're concentrating more on the apps now. i think that's a big driver. not enough to move the needle, other than the shoe maker, nike, but i think okay, safe nif enough to be a buyer of nike here. >> we talk so much about what's moving momentum, high multiple

stocks versus value. nike is none of these things. it's an expensive company. it's best in class. it's fought enormous pricing power. i would make an argument that the chinese consumer slg lg that everybody said is dead, not surprising. the yield results of the last quarter are coming out. their futures are looking better in china. a company that will continue to trade at a premium. that's the kind of name i want to own in this marketplace. i don't care about their technology. in the '80s, one thing they had -- remember the nike, you had a separate pump? that was reebok. >> i don't think reebok existed wack then. >> yes, it was. >> i'll say this is a lawsuit waiting to happen. one of these kids will put on the sneaker, and keep going, have to have it surgically removed. i'm telling you now. six months from now when there's a lawsuit, you can say, play that tape from that guy on thursday's show. from the end of last year, we've seen this in the stock before. we saw it three years ago, two

years ago, and last year as well. 26 times forward earnings, you can make an argument it's expensive. but to tim's point, i think they're best of breed. i think it goes higher. >> what could be detrimental to the rally and how you can protect yourself. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> that's what's happening to biotech stocks this year. and you won't believe how cheap some names have become. we'll explain. plus, it's the crude awakening. ? open your eyes. >> oil's rally looks like it's unstoppable. but the head of energy at bart place says, don't buy the hype. he's here to explain why, when "fast money" returns. one crest 3d white smile...

...is all it takes... ...to turn the tables. crest 3d white toothpaste... ...removes 5 times more stains... ...than the red box. for a smile like that, crest 3d white... is the way to whiten. welcome back to "fast money." time for the move of the day. the ibb dropping more than 1% today, adding to losses of 27% this quarter. it's tracking for its worst quarter since 2002. what happened? what are some of the hardest hit names in the space? time for some stock therapy.

are meg terrell is here. >> people keep asking are we at a bottom. six months ago, where are we in the cycle. most people i'm talking to say, all the generals haven't yet gotten out of biotech. there are still folks around, that's what i'm hearing. some people think we're at a bottom and unfair prices. other things we have farther to fall. how far have we come? from the top in july, down 38% for the ibb. if you look at the highest weighted names in the ibb, that's names like gillead, these are all down double digits, biogen. when you say what led us down, that's the highest weighted names. you've seen the companies really coming back. an investor survey was done about 460 investors. basically they were asked where do we finish out the year here?

outperform, underperform or perform in line? it was split almost equally across the board. you can see how people are trying to get a sense for what's happening here. usually, you see people deciding, okay, this is another year of outperformance, so people don't seem to know what's going on. he also asked people what their mega cap drug/biotech name is. pfizer was their top choice there, trying to wrap up their deal with allergen. he also would most likely take out targets. if biotech is going to turn around, he said it's because they've finally come down to the place that the bigger cap names are ready to buy them out. the names people think are mostly takeout targets are here. these are really popular areas, like cancer, diseases.

it will be interesting to see if they've gotten to levels people think they will get taken out. >> i think valuation is a very important thing to look at at this point. i understand the ebb is a basket of different biotechs. if you look how far the pe has fallen, we're now at, what, 18, compared to -- there's the historical valuation chart. we were at 30 times in july. we're in line with the markets at this point. >> if you ask me, i think biotech trades are like commodities. don't buy it when it's cheap and sell it when it's expensive. why should it trade now? i'm sorry. that's what's going on here. it was a crowded trade. these companies, if they hit, they'll be worth ten times what they're trading for, if they hit. i think we're in a place where the market is giving back a lot of gains. fundamentals don't have to matter. >> i think meg's right, you start to see m & a activity, it will spook a lot of guys still willing to short the names. and when you look at a handful,

or a small bucket of names that are on the block, so to speak, i think that's going to spook a lot of guys, from either getting out of their longs or reshort biotechnology that's been really depressed. >> broadly, we've seen now the s&p 500 move to flat for the year. health care is still the performing sector this year. you take a look at some of the big caps. theoretically, they should, those names, pfizer, bristol-myers, lily, they should trade on the fundamentals. >> they did today. with that said, xlv is the etf for the bigger cap pharma. that's getti inting hammered si the beginning of the year. dan gave them some flack -- >> there was a lot in between. >> can we queue that up? >> he said to be careful. now you have biotech trading well below the trading. i don't think anybody will pull the trigger in this environment because there's no up side in doing it. you've got to wait for the smoke

to clear and it ain't clearing anytime soon. >> this is a trade i've been on for a while, pfizer. i think it probably goes up at some point with more clarity about the allergen deal one way or another. down 20% from the 52-week high. it trades about 13 times. you don't buy pharma -- i think while you're waiting, you can actually sell against it and add to that yield and hang on to it. to me, i also think guy's right about the xlv. that is the etf. you have all this other stuff, the xpi, a lot more volatile. johnson and johnson, merck, that's where i would go down. >> dan mentioned an option strategy. is there a show that's on that you could learn more about that? >> i think it's about allocation. i think people are hiding out in health care, it's very, very crowded. what's going on in the market is why it's selling off.

>> meg, good to see you. meg terrell. oil topping $40 a barrel. while that's got traders excited, we'll hear from one strategist who said do not buy the hype in the crude oil rally. despite today's rally, a volatile year for the market, and in honor of st. patrick's day. with a kilt. we've got four stocks ready to turn your portfolio green with profit. and maybe keep colleagues green with envy.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks are now positive territory for 2016. the s&p and dow closing at the highest levels of the year. that was up more than 200 points at the high but closed up 155. terms and energy, today's best performers, health care the biggest laggard. coming up, the second slowest start to a year for ipos ever.

could mean bad news for the markets. small caps are soaring. one trader thinks the party isn't over yet. we'll tell you what turned a bear into a bull later this hour. but first we start with the biggest mover of the day, oil, the highest level of the year as it approaches $40 a barrel. our next guest, though, thinks it's too soon to buy this hype. michael cohen is from barclays. why is it too early not to believe the huge rally? >> one of the reasons we're here is essentially temporary. we've had a lot of temporary outages. sure, there's going to be continued risk in iraq, throughout the rest of this year. but that pipeline, and the production there is already getting started again. the other thing, the demand side of this story is supply continuing to come down in the united states. we've had another outage in nigeria. at the same time, demand indicators are continuing to be very weak. so you have to put the two sides of the equation together.

so the other thing is, if we continue to ride this price higher and higher and higher, it essentially delays the day of reckoning for u.s. producers. so they can kind of live to fight another day if prices go higher and higher. we're not going to get this adjustment spending the last year and a half waiting for. >> basically you want some of these companies to go offline completely, maybe forever, in order to rectify that imbalance? >> the interesting thing is, yes, what matters is that some of them do declare bankruptcy. and some of them already have, and will continue to do so. actually, when they do declare bankruptcy, some of them can actually produce more. the issue is really spending. what we need to see is capex continue to be cut. we're already starting to see those signs. i think if we kind of ride up this price too soon, then it's going to mean that we have to just see a longer and longer time for our balancing. >> can you explain to my good friend tim why you don't see $50

a barrel oil anytime soon? now, to me, it's a positioning trade, where guys were reaching actually for the commodity versus the equity. iran is going to pump everything. so anything that there's any deficiency, iran is going to more than make up for in the fundamentals have not changed. >> right. you have to take the balance on the supply side even. for the every 150,000 parls a day down in the u.s., we've seen in the last couple of months, iran's been adding, 100, 150 barrels a day. that may run out of steam at the end of the day. i think 50 is a possibility. we actual hi are have a call for $60 in 2017. that's the issue right now. we see 2016 as an adjustment year, in order to kind of see production continuing to decline. but we think that the balance tips very much to the opposite direction for 2017. and prices higher then.

>> why would investors mess around if you're finding -- maybe not saying that they should, but great companies with great balance sheets will not only be in business in 2017, but will have opportunistic in the cycle and buying assets. chevron has gone from $45 billion, $24 billion next year. we're two years into a bear market commodity where you cut back capex, taking production offline. i know what you say about demand, but unless you tell me demand is structurally changing, every year we need more oil. and continuing to go up. people talk about $20 oil because they talk aboglobal gro slowing. the dollar has to weigh in here on this, too. oil and dollar completely diverge in july of 2014. that's really the trade. >> no, you're definitely right on that. what we saw, why are prices -- why do prices get to these very low levels at the end of february, the dollar continue to improve. so the macro sentiment has also

shifted right now. we're not in the dire straits that we were at the end of february. we're at a much different situation right now in the aftermath of what the fed said yesterday. so, you know, i think what we have to see is this continued adjustment process, and we're not there yet. that's the end of the day. >> is there a town side risk to your forecast for 2016, considering what you said in tems of -- if we go more towards 45 and stay there for a longer part of the year, then it seems like there's a risk of more production happening. >> i think that there is some down side risk. i think the risks in our view are probably more skewed to the up side. i think what you have is a macro situation that is bad, and probably not getting any better throughout the rest of this year. but as we get further and further along this year, the oil market balance gets tighter and tighter and tighter. it becomes -- the macro sentiment becomes a bit of a head wind as we get further along in the year. >> thank you, michael.

michael cohen. >> here's the thing. technically when you look at crude, down from over 110 in mid-2014. there were some very severe rallies. with esaw a 45% one last spring. we saw in the fall a 35% one. now we're about 50% off of the february lows. let me just tell you this. the commodity has not above the average since september of 2014. it's failed every single time on those countertrends at the 200 day. >> what about now? >> that's a couple bucks away. i think -- >> brent's above the -- that's the world's blend. >> but what i'm saying is, it could set up for a really good fade here. it's obviously concentrated between exxon, chevron, schlumberger. >> valuation is going to matter with some of these big cap energy names. chevron trade is probably close

to 40 times trailing, 21 times forward earnings. you have to ask, is that the right valuation in this environment. i don't know the answer to that. but i think we're getting a little bit stretched. still ahead, where are the ipos? what it could mean for your money, right after this break. plus, it's st. patrick's day, and everybody's portfolio could use a little bit of luck this year. so the traders have four lucky stocks that they'll name later this hour. the heirloom tomato.

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welcome back to "fast money." the s&p 500 may be up 13% from the recent low. but one part of the crucial market is running dry. breaking down the big ipo drought. >> the spigots have been shut off, it's been dry for a very long time. that's what it feels like if you're focusing on the market for initial public offerings. let's put it in context how bad is it. according to ipo data, it's been 90 days since the last ipo priced on the new york stock exchange, the nyse, the last one that did was that urendi in 2015, last year. that's a small cap company, chinese one, that has a current market cap around $380 million.

it deals with online loans. the longest drought on record. the longest streak was 187 days, between august 7th of 2008, that was when rack space went public. february 10th, 2009, when johnson nutrition went public. eight u.s. ipos have raised around $1.1 billion. last year 30 deals had already priced. the renaissance capital, another firm out there, it tracks recent ipos, it's still underperforming the broader stock market index. the ipo spigots may need an environment of continued low volatility to get things flowing again. that's part of the story. of course, if you wanted more, go to cnbc.com. melissa, back over to you guys. we'll talk about maybe this drought ending if the markets can stay the way they are right now. >> dom, thank you.

dochu back at headquarters. the obvious trade would be to go to the banks and say that's terrible for them. more broadly, in terms of the market, it shows there's a reluctant risk. >> there's more prudence in the market. less capital is blindably being thrown around. i think liquidity is being pulled backment i think the profitability for banks from the ipo market is something that's measurable, though. i don't think that is really their downfall in this environment. i think we're probably overlooking that. i think it's a good thing for the market. >> maybe banks will figure out a way around the ipo market. it's a lagging indicator. everything that dom just said there, his preface is, if we see a market that rallies, three months we'll be back on track for a normal ipo year. people will rush to the market once again. >> the small caps underperforming the market year-to-date. dan is over at the smarted board breaking it down.

>> today there was a closing seller 40,000 in the april 10393 put price, $2.5 billion in premium. that was the close. so that was somebody that had a prior bearish bet or possibly a hedge against a position or portfolio of small cap stocks. when you look at three times put volume, the call volume, you may think something's up. but it looks like somebody was closing a bearish bet. when you think about it, you said it's really underperformed. the s&p 500 only 4% off the highs. looking at the chart here, this is the six month. kind of important here. this consolidation obviously looks pretty decent here. you know, this was a breakdown level. this would make me less negative on it. i am negative, i've been negatively positioned on the

russell 2000 because of the underperformance we've been talking about versus large cap stock. here's the thing i'm most focused on. this is the long-term uptrend. if it fails here, this is the one that i think has the most bang for your buck to the down side. that's why i think it's been a good hedge against u.s. equities in general. to me, until we see a number of closings above 110, i'm staying defensive on the russell 2000. >> down 4% this year. the nasdaq is down 4.6% this year. there's still ground to be made up for some of the other indices. >> it's interesting, again, tim talked about it, january 20th is when the transports bottomed out. look at the move it's had since then. now, i'll say this, the move we saw today, large by because of fedex, takes us right up to a down trend line we started to make at the end of 2014. you're right up against resistance in the transports, as well as dan's iwm. >> more options action check of

the show, that would be tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. by the way, we've got a special guest on. we're going to keep that secret until tomorrow. ready for your portfolio to turn green is this st. patrick's day is here. four stocks our traders are calling their lucky charms. we'll tell you the names next. fs here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.

. adobe higher in the after-hours trade, though it's come slightly off the highs in the after-hours. beating expectations for profits and sales. helped along by subscriber growth for its creative cloud services sweep. it's raising fiscal 2016 sales and earnings targets as well. q1 revenues 25 pfs over last year's first quarter. the stock gaining 16% over the last month. right now, you can see there, the charts about $95.25 in the extended hours trade. volatile trade over the last year, but for right now we're

seeing a nice upside gain. we'll see if it holds for tomorrow's session. >> dom, thanks. >> it's going to hold. better than what the street was looking for. we've talked about this stock numerous times. i don't think it's that expensive at 25 times forward earnings. i think somebody on this desk should make it their final trade. >> wow. >> dom chu was wearing a very handsome green tie. and of course, that's in honor of st. patrick's day. everyone is trying to turn their portfolio green, so let's go around the horn and get some lucky charm trades. tim? and you're wearing green jeans, america. for better or worse. >> you can't see them. anyway. i'm talking about anpel, a story that i think will have the highest operating leverage in

the region. it's a company that's a valuation. should you look at gamers in the cheap context, usually trades about 20 times. gamers continue to work on this one. >> grasso? >> i believe i mentioned it last night, i believe this was my final trade last night. olen corp. if you look at the diversified space, west lake is looking to make an acquisition. i would think that olin valuation is boosted if they do that, maybe two or three times from where it is right now. huge upside. i think limited down side risk. >> they look good as leprechauns. dan? >> the s&p 500 is going to go back and make new highs, you'll have some of the momentum names participate a little bit. nike reports next week. we know the catalyst looking out to the summer with the olympics. let's go to steph curry,

underarmor, 20% over the highs last year. if we have the s&p go back toward the highs of everything on track with what nike has in that next week, you probably see this thing back above 93. >> your song, danny boy. >> yeah. >> do you know who steph curry is, mel? >> golden state warriors. >> whoa! >> really? >> yeah. >> pay up. >> give me a little green. >> unbelievable. >> and i'm not giving you change. >> may god bless you. >> mike ryan. the stock has gone to obliterated. dan has seen unusual activity in the calls on the up side lately. because nobody wants to be shorted names in this environment into earnings on the 30th, i think you're going to see a pop to the up side ahead of earnings. >> coming up next, fun trades.

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antidepressants in the tissue of salmon. >> how do you make yours? >> caught in the punl ot sound. no one is certain how it got into the water. they confirm the levels are among the highest in the nation. and we thought that salmon reminded us of other remarkable characters in the news. look familiar? >> almost uncanny. >> really, it's pretty frightening. tim? >> i don't know how you come back with anything after that. eww, mexico, emerging markets are ripping. the mexican peso i think is way overdone, a play you could play long term. >> this is what i bought today, altria group. searching for yield, searching for dividend, that's where you want to be. >> coca-cola, these guys were talking about the weak dollar. i would not chase this stock at 23 times. all-time highs here. earnings sales, both declining

for a third year in a row. >> somebody's got to be the adobe guy. adb gets you done. back to you, mel. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. meantime, "mad money" starts right now.tomorrow. meantime, "mad money" starts right now. \s my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job is to entertain and teach you how it all works, or tweet me @jimcramer. coiled springs, that's what the stocks of the big industrials