good morning. happening now, oil prices flirting with 2016 highs. new this morning, hedge fund hurt. liquidation has reached the highest level since the financial crisis. and march madness. one day in and brackets are already being busted. we'll bring you the big upset, including yale stunning baylor. it's international happiness day. friday, march 18th, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost.

i'm glad you found a little smile because it's international happiness day. >> happy friday. >> a little friction in the first ten minutes. >> we had a fight over the twitter question, which is still to come. but you must get involved. >> a loving fight. >> we haven't worked out what the twitter question is yet. anyway, back in the black. the dow positive on the year. extraordinary turnaround when you think about where we were a couple weeks ago. blue chip index on track for its best quarterly comeback since the end of the great depression. a weaker dollar and stronger oil helping to propel stocks this week. u.s. ek wiquity futures right n let's take a look. they were broadly flat earlier. the s&p and nasdaq called open by a small amount. the dow similarly called open but only by 25 points into positive territory. >> a big reason for the stunning turnaround in stocks, the correlations with other assets. let's show you the price of oil right now. wti topping $40 a barrel for the first time since december 7th,

heading for its fifth week of gains. let's show you what's happening this morning, giving a bit back. wti back below that $40 level but just barely. brent still above 41. off by a little less than 1%. nat gas backing off as well. so where does the oil price go from here? we got a prediction from barclays on "fast money" last night. have a listen. >> i do think that 50 is a possibility. we actually have a call for $60 wti. >> when? >> in 2017. >> okay. >> so that's the issue right now, that we see 2016 as an adjustment year in order to kind of see production continue to decline, but we think the balance tips very much to the opposite direction for 2017. >> and that's going to be the key question. when it comes to commodities, which has also been helped by

the weaker dollar, the dollar is at the weakest level since back in october, have we seen the worst? is this sort of upswing for real? does it mark the end of the major commodities rout? caterpillar yesterday lowering its guidance for the first quarter, much lower than analysts expected. but then kept its full-year earnings forecast on track, signaling maybe we will see a rebound or maybe caterpillar sees a rebound in prices. of iron ore or the mining industry and the mining business. caterpillar went up on the day, even though that first quarter forecast was so disappointing on this idea that maybe they see it coming back. we'll see if it happens. that could be the key for stocks. >> we've seen a really strong performance in a lot of the mining stocks this week. of course, they're so heavily leveraged. a lot of them. so when we see a reaction in commodities across the board, really, including gold, but oil in particular, that's helping those sectors. absolutely right to mention the dollar on this. i think the first few weeks of the rebound in the oil price sort of five weeks ago was more

on demand and supply. we had a few noises coming out of opec and russia and the like. this week, very much focused on the dollar move and how that's helped commodities more broadly. the green back falling to its lowest level since october today. that continues that u.s. dollar weakness. if we look at that right now, the euro versus the u.s. dollar, albeit the euro is giving up some ground today. we're very close to 1.13 overnight. it's fascinating to me to see how that pairing is a great indicator of the broader market at the moment. that pairing has reacted to so much more strongly to no action from the fed to a lot of action from the ecb. we were at 1.08 last week. that's almost unfathomable when you consider the bazooka mario draghi shot off. >> it's true. if you go through some of the boxes of what was ailing this market in january, worst start to a year ever, you had the strong dollar at the top of the list. well, that's reversed.

you had the price of oil plunging. that's reversed along with other commodities as well. china's currency plunging as well. or at least weakening. people were spooked by what that meant. that's reversed. overnight in asia, the chinese yuan hit its strongest level of the year against the u.s. dollar thanks to that falling dollar. concerns about the global economy and u.s. recession, that's kind of also gone to the back burner. we'll see if we can keep checking these boxes as we look at the stock market. there's the chinese currency. high point of 2016. that helped asian markets overnight, except for that japanese yen starting to strengthen. really took its toll on japanese exporters with the nikkei falling overnight. japanese government bonds, a story in themselves. rallying with the ten-year and 20-year yields hitting record lows. today mark theed the first time since 1980 that the ten-year fell below the bank of japan

policy rate. >> fascinating if we look at the rest of asia as well. china's home prices rose at the fastest pace in two years. that's also fueling bubble concerns. the yuan firming against the dollar, as we've already said, hitting a 2016 high. let's also have a look at the broader market performance. the nikkei the exception. that's because of the yen, of course, whereas the weaker dollar has helped the rest of the markets around the world. i do think if we sit and pause, we've seen -- a few weeks ago we were very critical of what the g-20 finance ministers could achieve. there was talk of collective action. everything you would have hoped to have seen since has happened. we've seen the chinese come out and be clear on their currency and it strengthened. we've seen a lot of easing from the ecb. we haven't seen tightening from janet yellen. it does seem slightly coordinated. we need to keep this bubble -- we need to keep things going. we can't quite stomach a big

downturn at the moment. i think people understand that long term, these types of actions have to be removed. >> i wonder if, to your point, they've declared somewhat of a truce on the currency war. you mentioned the ecb bazooka. maybe it was aimed at helping the banks and it was a targeted policy aimed at getting them to lend to each other and to the real economy again. that's not a currency mechanism like flat-out qe that we saw post-financial crisis. anyway, a lot of central bank stories that are sort of moving right now. and the common theme is they're all still in easing mode and the fed this week took a big step back to move in sync with its peers. >> let's have a look at european trading. the banks are weighing on the broader index at the moment, whereas the commodity names are not. we were in negative territory half an hour ago. we've found a little i'm me us it -- impetus, but nothing to

write home about. >> check out gold prices. here's what jpmorgan had to say about the precious metal on "fast money." >> i would stay with the sort value asset, and gold is one of them. these assets will benefit from the fed marginally underdelivering. that should put pressure on the dollar. >> we're also watching copper prices. we're showing you all markets this morning. overnight, the metal hitting its highest level since back in november. another positive sign for sentiment for the global economy and particularly for china. >> you love to talk about it almost as much as the yen. >> no telltale sign right now. >> i'd say it's your favorite in march. >> it really has made a move back been global equities have followed. >> always brings it back. i absolutely agree. let's get to the u.s. bond

market. this is an interesting one to note. yes, we've seen yields tick down in line with the fact that we don't expect the fed to hike rates so quickly, but when you look at the fact that we've seen equity buying this week alongside bond buying, which is why that yield has compressed, it is an indicator of a rally based not on fundamentals but central bank action or inaction. that's usually a slightly more bearish reaction. >> and we wrap up the trading week with data on the consumer in the u.s. today. the first read on march consumer sentiment out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. expected to tick up slightly from february. and a trio of fed officials are speaking today after the fed announcement. new york fed president bill dudley, boston fed president

rosengren and bullard. sales are expected to be hit by the strong dollar for tiffany. tourists spend less at the flagship store in new york city. so we'll be watching those tiffany earnings before the bell. >> indeed we will. it's been a big week for central banks around the world. headlined by the u.s. fed decision. today we'll hear from russia. the central bank there expected to remain cautious, keeping rates at 11%. a policy decision due at 6:30 eastern time this morning. some deal news to report. trans canada buying columbia pipeline group for $10.2 billion. trans canada best known as the company behind the keystone xl oil pipeline. this deal would create one of north america's largest regulated natural gas transmissions. the stock reacting favorably. >> more stocks to watch.

jpmorgan is raising its stock buyback program to $1.88 billion. johnson & johnson have been ordered by a federal jury in texas to pay $500 million to five plaintiffs who say they were injured by a metal hip implant. the jury found the implants were defectively designed. j&j says it plans to appeal the verdict. adobe systems first quarter profit nearly tripled on strong continued digital media revenue. adobe is also raising its full-year earnings outlook. stocks up nice. >> look at that chart. that's a pretty chart. some other stocks for you to watch. shutterfly has named amazon's u.k. head christopher north as its new ceo. north has been with amazon since back in 2006. he'll take over the digital

photo company at the end of may. whole foods is moving towards slower growing chickens. the supermarket chain will replace the industry standard chicken bred to rapidly pack on pounds with slower growing varieties. the company believes those birds will enjoy better lives and actually yield better tasting meat. the move should be complete by 2024. >> viacom says it has received offers for minority stake in paramount pictures from three dozen companies. the ceo telling "the wall street journal" the company is looking for strategic partner to help its international and digital business as opposed to purely financial partners such as private equity firms. to be continued on that one. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," hedge fund liquidations reach the highest level since the financial crisis. the new numbers and what they tell us coming up here on cnbc.

good morning to you. happy friday and warm welcome to "worldwide exchange" if you're just waking up. let's get you up to speed on the market action. first up, oil prices. 4% gains for wti yesterday, taking it above 40 for the first time since december. we're a little off that level today, but clearly oil prices have had a fantastic rally since their lows in february. almost above 40. someone, buy some. get it above 40 this morning. great rally there. if you thought that was a big rally, let's look at what equities have done.

u.s. futures right now, the dow is in positive territory for the year as a whole. who would have thought that a few weeks ago? we're called to open by 44 points higher today as well. european trading, it was mixed to down earlier. we found some impetus in the last half an hour. commodity stocks doing well. banks doing badly this morning. sara? >> speaking of europe, moody's is warning europe's stable ratings face rising risks. the firm saying the ratings remaining steady this year and next, but it is cautious that fading fiscal consolidation, limited progress on structural reforms, and rising political risks limit the upside potential and create longer term issues in europe. we're going to stay on the global theme right now and head to singapore now, where akiko fujita joins us with a look at the overnight action in asia. >> good morning to you, sara. we're seeing markets here in

asia pretty much end the week on a high note for the most part. green pretty much across the board here as risk appetite increases on expectations of fewer rate hikes out of the fed. looking to the chinese markets here, the shanghai composite ending the day in positive territory, helped by new data out that showed home prices rose at the fastest rate in nearly two years, helped by big demand in these big cities. the nikkei over in japan continuing to be the lone player in the red here. it was below the 17,000 mark, closing down about 211 points. the strong yen continuing to weigh on investors there. the currency has moved about 7% on the year. it held above that key 110 mark today. it moved about 111 against the dollar. with exporters continuing to get hit hard by the strong currency, there are increasing questions about how much longer the bank of japan can continue to stay on the sidelines. as we've seen unease in the

markets, we've certainly seen a rush to safe havens. yields on ten-year japanese government bonds, jgbs hit a new record low today. that's the first time since 1980 that the ten-year yield has fallen below the central bank's policy rate. wilfred? >> akiko, thank you very much for that. new fund flow data out this morning. investors pulled $2.1 billion from u.s.-based stock funds in the latest week. money market funds posted $36 billion in outflows, marking the group's largest exit of money in more than two years. new research today finds more hedge funds shut down last year than at any time since the financial crisis. hedge fund research reporting 979 funds liquidated in 2015 as turbulent markets hurt performance. the top 20% of funds by assets received about 80% of new money that came in during the year. 2016 doesn't look any better for the hedge fund industry. hedge funds only received $3

million in new money in february. that compares with 18.6 billion during the same month last year. we talk a lot about bill ackman's problems at pershing square with the valeant trade and a lot of the other hedge funds on that bandwagon, but this is widespread pain for the industry. >> and the theme of the last couple years, which has been really focused on in the first few months this year, is active management worth the fees they charge? big headline stories like that don't help. >> we always ask it, and they have been consistently underperforming for the past few years. yet money continues to flow in, which is why we're watching these numbers. right. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," decision 2016. donald trump emerging as the big fish in a tiny pool of gop presidential candidates. and that's spurring a scramble by political power brokers to try to shut him down. the latest from the campaign trail coming up. but first, here's today's national forecast from the weather channel's reynolds wolf. >> hi, wilfred and sara.

let's look at your forecast across the nation. good people, let me tell you, we could have some bad storms today, especially across parts of central and south texas, the gulf coast. for those of you who have spring fever and you're hoping for warmer times, spring isn't there yet in places like bismarck or denver. cool temperatures back in upstate new york, vermont, parts of new hampshire, even maine. sunny for you in new york. enjoy it while you can because we have cooler times and a chance of snowfall coming into the weekend. let's see what today brings first. not a bad way to end your week in los angeles with 72 degrees. 60 in seattle. 71 in dallas. 71 in atlanta. 85 in miami. new york, again, i got to tell you, enjoy the warm times. cooler times and a chance of snow moves in for the weekend. more coming up here on cnbc. we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the dump trump movement may be gaining steam this morning. nbc's tracie potts is live in washington with more on a private meeting held there to find someone else to represent the republican party this fall. tracie? >> reporter: hi there, wilfred. good morning, everyone. these people, conservatives, republicans, who do not want to see donald trump as the nominee are getting together, trying to figure out how to stop him or how to slow him down. a couple options they're looking at right now to stop him before the nomination, before the convention this summer, or to give him some competition in the fall. this closed-door meeting organized by conservative republicans looking for a strategy to beat donald trump. >> the best way to do it is to

get a unity ticket. >> reporter: it's not clear if that's ted cruz. they're also looking at backing a third-party candidate in november. >> hopefully there's time to still, you know, prevent a trump nomination, which i think would fracture the party. >> reporter: at a late rally last night, bernie sanders called on democrats to unite. >> that trumps every day dividing up as trump would have us be. >> reporter: overnight, an "l.a. times" editorial warns trump to knock off the rebel rousing, describing him as a child threatening to throw a tantrum. >> to even address or hint to violence is unacceptable. >> reporter: in a scathing speech, the senate's top democrat argues republicans cannot have it both ways, condemning trump and supporting him. >> if they refuse to revoke their support for trump, they should put on make america great again hats and stand behind trump at his next press

conference. >> reporter: trump's response? he's ignoring it all, tweeting overnight that hillary clinton is corrupt and focusing on tuesday's primary in arizona. now, speaking of arizona, one of arizona's congressmen was at that private meeting and issued a statement afterwards. it really tells you how conflicted some of these establishment republicans are when it comes to what to do right now. so trent frank says he doesn't trust donald trump. then he said he will support and vote for donald trump in the fall if he's the nominee because he trusts hillary clinton less. but then he said now he's supporting ted cruz because he really respects ted cruz to get the nomination. so it shows that there's just a lot of conflict going on individually as well as within the party on what to do because not a lot of people, or a significant number of people don't want to see donald trump as the nominee but don't know how to stop him. >> that's going to be the question. do we see them finally rally behind trump because they

realize they have no other option, or do they break away? what are you going to be watching this weekend? who will you be watching this weekend to help answer these questions into tuesday? >> reporter: clearly donald trump. it will also be interesting to see what paul ryan and mitch mcconnell, the two top leaders here on capitol hill, have to say about this. ryan has been quite outspoken about it in the last 24 hours. we're seeing that same conflict with them that harry reid brought up, which is condemning things that trump says, like when he says we're going to have riots if i'm not nominated. they'll condemn that, but they won't pull their support from trump because they think he may really be the party's nominee. top republican leaders don't want to be seen as not supporting the party's nominee. >> we'll see. i'm sure trump will be making the rounds as usual on the sunday shows. tracie, thank you very much for the update from washington. day two of the ncaa tournament gets under way in just a few hours. there have already been some major upsets that have probably blown up a few people's brackets.

12-seed yale taking on 5-seed baylor on thursday. the bears down by one late in the second half, trying to go for the win. the player falls and yale gets the ball back with two seconds left. the bulldogs winning 79-75 for their first ever ncaa tournament win. they take on duke on saturday. >> that was a great game. but the game of the day, the university of arkansas little rock versus purdue. this one goes to double overtime. the boilermakers down one, driving for the win, but johnny hill stumbles, fall, and turns it over. the 12 seed trojans pull off the upset. they'll face iowa state on saturday. >> we're both still in it. >> you have it all perfect so far? >> no, but we're both still in the game. none of these games matter, i think, until the last two weeks, as long as your four go to the final four. so i don't really pay attention until then. >> one of my finalists is already out. >> seriously? i thought you were doing well. >> no, i thought i had been.

i was trying to check it this morning. >> we need dom. we need some help. >> where's dom when you want him? when we come back this morning -- by the way, i won the cnbc bracket last year. watch out. >> as long as i beat you, i don't mind. i hope yours just goes terribly. >> we'll talk about this morning's top stories, plus a unique view of the global economy from nike's ceo mark parker. and today's trending stories, including kanye west announcing a pop-up shop in new york this weekend. but first, as we head to break, we want to hear from you. our twitter and facebook question this morning, the dow is now positive for 2016. will stocks continue to rally? get in touch with us here on "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. we're back in a couple minutes. we were born 100 years ago into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder.

so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪ sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

good morning. back in black. the dow turns positive for the year as the dollar drops and oil rises. we have markets on our mind today. plus, corporate news. jpmorgan raising its stock buyback program. and making music. could michelle obama be working b on a post-white house career? we'll tell you about the first lady's new song. it's friday, march 18th, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. wilfred's favorite song. who knew? >> a little bit of flo rida. >> welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.

happy friday. >> happy friday to you, too, sara. i'm wilfred frost. let's check in on global markets this morning. futures pointing to a positive open the day after the dow turned positive for the year as a whole. who would have thought that would be what we're looking at three months in or nearly three months into the year. the s&p up 1.5. the nasdaq up about six points. we're looking at gains in europe as well. this wasn't, in fact, the case about an hour ago or so when we opened. we've now got about half a percent of gains for the main markets. we have the banks suffering, the miners and commodity stocks doing well. we'll get those boards for you in a moment. asia seeing gains as well. again, commodity related names doing very well. emerging markets doing very well, benefitting from the dollar move. the one market in asia not doing well is the nikkei. that's because the yen has strengthened against the dollar weakness. >> japan getting hit by more than 1% overnight.

currencies are in charge right now. that weak dollar, which was really super charged into weaker territory by the federal reserve this week, pushing out its idea of how many interest rate increases it's going to have from four in december to two now. it has crushed the u.s. dollar, particularly against the japanese yen at 111. overall, the dollar at the lows since back in october, it's helped commodities and materials lead the way. oil giving a little back today. wti did manage to cross over $40 a barrel. we're right at that level now. 40.04. brent the international benchmark down about 0.7% this morning. it's early. the ceos of major multinational companies always provide us with a good snapshot of the global economy. here's what nike boss mark parker told me he's seeing right now. >> there's a lot of economic ups and downs here, that we're in

the middle of a lot of instability around the world. we're facing some fx headwinds and that sort of thing. i think what really drives nike and our business is what we see here today, the innovation, the product. we're not seeing consumers backing off of really innovative product, game-changing product. that's what we're all about. >> so that's about the most he could tell me, wilfred, because they're going into earnings on tuesday. they are in a quiet period. clearly companies like nike, which gets more than 50% of its sales from overseas, are hurting from the u.s. dollar, which is why this weakness now is so important for u.s. companies, for multinationals, why the dow is back in the black. a lot of people say the s&p, which did go into positive territory yesterday for the year, closed sort of flattish on the year. >> the dollar move, i mentioned at the top of the show, extraordinary to see how it's reacted over the last week, particularly against the euro, where we saw such a big amount of action from the ecb. very little action from the fed. very much responding to the fed side. we said earlier how it makes --

reiterates the fact that the fed is the strongest central bank in the world. i think one of the key factors for that is it does actually have room to maneuver. because they've had that little bit of a rate hike, because they never went into negative rates, there is the possibility for them to either tighten or cut. when you look at the ecb and bank of japan, they're already in negative territory. people think, there's not really much more they can do. that's perhaps why the fed is the central bank really in charge at the moment. >> keeping their powder dry kind of argument. you talk about the stunning turnaround the market has seen. at one point, the dow was down 11% for the year. now it's actually positive for the year. a number of factors we've been talking about. it's not just the weaker dollar. stronger commodities, prices, stronger oil, iron ore, even gold rallying with this move. and china has eased. the chinese currency settling at the highest rate of 2016. >> going back to the nike interview very quickly there, how long were you there at the

store all day? quite a few hours. >> i was there for several hours. it was an event. >> you didn't pick me up a pair of shoes. i asked, told you the size. >> it's off the charts. >> no gift. i can't believe it. this is what i have to work with. >> next time. >> anyway, stocks to watch today. j. jpmorgan raising its stock buyback program up to $1.88 billion. up fractionally in premarket trade. trans-canada, the company behind the controversial keystone pipeline is buying columbia pipeline group for $10.2 billion. trans-canada will pay $25.50 a share, an 8% premium. columbia owns and operates about 1500 miles of natural gas pipelines. lear corp. is working on

bringing jobs back to detroit. the ceo has also been talking with city officials in reducing taxes. about 1,000 jobs could initially be filled by a number of companies. and some news on spotify. they've reached a deal to make it easier for music publishers to claim royalties that they're owed. in return, they'll agree not to make claims of copyright infringement. spotify says it's paid out more than $3 billion in royalties since launching in 2008. the fbi and u.s. safety regulators are warning automakers and drivers their vehicles are increasingly vulnerable to hackers. last year gm fixed a security flaw that could have let hackers take control of its electric chevy volt. chrysler recalled 1.4 million

vehicles after showed how hackers could take over a jeep cherokee. >> even scarier when you think about the self-driving cars that run on computers. it is time for today's trending stories. michelle obama of all people is out with a new song. the first lady teaming up with kelly clarkson, missy elliott, and kelly rowland to record the song "for my girls" part of her government initiative to get 62 million girls more access to education. >> i like this. i haven't heard the song yet. >> i haven't heard it either. that's an all-star lineup. uber is crossing borders. its new service uber passport launching today offers one-way rides across the u.s.-mexican border from san diego to tijuana. there we go. >> but you can't get a ride back is the catch. you can only get a ride back to the border. then you can walk the border back and get an uber in san diego to pick you back up. still, this is a big step. it's the first time uber is going cross border. it's a little more complicated

coming back. surely cars can go across border. why is it so complicated? >> you have to use passports, wait in long lines. those immigration lines are so long at the border. but this is a step. it's very close, you know, between san diego and mexico. >> oh, is it? is there a border there? has that been in the press recently? something about a wall? kanye west hosting a yeezy pop-up shop in new york city this weekend. he warned his fans one day before the store would open. >> he's a wreck, by the way. did you know about that? just in case. just to make sure you know what you're talking about. >> thank you, wilfred. a dog lost at sea was found alive by u.s. navy officers five weeks later. the german shepherd mix jumped off its owner's shipping boat february 10th. the navy crew found the dog strolling down a sidewalk in

lieu -- lunar. >> i love this story. five weeks. a rare blue diamond ring owned by shirley temple is going up for auction. bids will start at $25 million. temple's father bought the 9.5 carat fancy deep blue diamond ring for $7,200 back in 1940 for her 12th birthday. shirley temple, who died in 2014, had a second career as a u.s. ambassador. blue diamonds are beautiful. the fact it's owned by shirley temple, i wonder how much it'll go for. >> is that a hint? am i meant to be getting it as a gift for you? sadly not coming. rummage through your kitchen cabinets for the biggest drinking container you can find. it's bring your own cup day at 7-eleven. today and tomorrow, customers can show up with anything remotely resembling a cup and fill it with the slurpee of their choice for $1.50.

the event is being held in honor of slurpee's 50th anniversary. the cup can't be more than 9 inches wide and 11 inches tall. it must be leakproof. as i read the first half of that story, i thought, how awesome. disappointed there are rules. >> well, of course. you can't just bring in anything. you can't bring in a trash bag and fill it up. >> that's what i think it should be if they really want to make the most of this. >> have you had a slurpee yet? >> no. >> they're very sweet. >> well, maybe i'll try one. there we go. still to come, today's must reads. trump and sanders' threat to free trade. >> but first, as we head to break, we want to hear from you on our twitter and facebook poll this morning. the dow is back in the black for 2016. will stocks continue to rally? yes or no. >> if you think the twitter question is lackluster, it's because sara worded it. we didn't go with my option. get in touch on that note as well.

we're back in a couple minutes.

we continue to feel that free trade and 21st century trade policy is incredibly important to the u.s. economy and globally as well. we think it's important to be at the table when that policy is being developed. >> all those floating sneakers in the background and not one for wilfred. that was ceo of nike, mark parker, during my conversation

with him yesterday and about the bashing that trade is getting right now on the campaign trail on both sides of the aisle from hillary clinton, who has come out against tpp, the transpacific trade partnership. they're all getting in on it. that brings me to my must read of the morning. i went to "the washington post." david ignatius wrote, trump's and sanders' dangerous revolt against free trade. he cites a study here that says between 2017 and 2026, when tpp would have its major impact, the costs to displaced workers would be 6% of the benefits for the economy or an 18 to 1 benefit to cost ratio. setting facts straight here about the economic benefit pro-free trade. you can debate it. there are certainly costs, but for such a businessman, ignatius says, trump seems out of touch on this issue of trade. when he bashes japan, acting

like it's some economic super power, we talk about japan every day. they're in a slump they can't get out of. >> you cite a study with facts i think you know it's a forward looking expectation. absolutely right. interesting how everyone's had to jump on this anti-trade bandwagon because clearly sanders and trump are getting so much mileage. >> conventional economic wisdom of the last decade. >> to have hillary jump on it, making the nafta agreement. >> which is up for debate too. >> my must read is from "the financial times" on the current commission meeting going on in europe about the refugee crisis. a refugee deal hinges on freedom of travel for turks. he says turkey expects the eu to deliver more money for the refugees, a resettlement plan for the syrians, and a commitment to the restart of

talks. above all, the turkish government wants visa free travel to europe for its citizens. this is what europeans are discussing this weekend. i flag it because it brings back into the spotlight the difficult political situation in europe. if that visa free travel does come out of it, it's going to anger the right in germany, who have got traction recently. the right in france. it's going to anger russia as well. and it will give more ammunition, i think, to the right and the brexit camp in england. it makes it very -- there's a lot of tough moving parts for them to work. >> some economists say this refugee crisis is more of a threat to the euro and the existence of the euro than greece was. is that what you're hearing? >> i think it's a much bigger political threat. if the currency is under threat, particularly back in '11 and '12, then that could really collapse things more instantaneously. i think a political exit of britain from the eu could allow things to spark in a more kind of slower fashion.

>> slower train wreck. >> but it's a big political threat. >> all right. we're approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." andrew joins us from new york. just one question. who do you like better, the protagonists in "billions" or the wives? i'm thinking the wives are the stars of the show. >> i'm a fan of the wives. but you're supposed to say you're a fan of everybody. i like them all, but i think the wives are extraordinary. by the way, talking about hedge funds, we have dave mccormick, who's the president of bridgewater on the show at 8:00 this morning. rey dalio's fund, the largest fund in the world. you talk about stories you read in the paper b about bridgewater, about their very unique, if not interesting, culture. some people call it a social experiment where people get to judge each other, this idea of radical transparency. anyway, we'll have him on the

set. he'll be speaking for the first time about so many of these difficult issues that have been taking place that have caused a bit of a commotion in the markets and about what they're all about. so we're going to do that at 8:00. lots of other issues to talk about as well. >> andrew, can we come back to "billions" quickly? reported that you base the characters on real life people. are the wives, any of the wives in particular p based on any real life characters? >> i'm not a hedge fund wife. >> great question. and the answer is no. >> well, i'm not sure about that. anyway, thank you very much. "squawk box" coming up in 11 minutes time. the world's major central banks all weighed in on the global economy in the past week. up next, paul sheard joins us with his take on all the central bank action and a preview on the markets. we're back in a couple minutes. don't go anywhere.

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...[inhale + exhale mnemonic]... ...two more ways to breathe happy welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're looking at futures right now higher after the dow goes

black for the year. joining us to discuss it is paul sheard, chief global economist at standard & poor's. has this whole move been about the instability in the foreign exchange market? >> well, i think i'd put it more that the foreign exchange market has been reflecting angst about the outlook of the global economy. also, i think that angst has been driven to a large extent by foreign exchange markets trying to get a beat on what central banks are doing. of course, they're off in all sorts of directions at the moment. >> is it not relevant what any central bank is doing apart from the fed? the bank of japan easing, the ecb easing didn't really softening their currencies much. the fed just changes its rhetoric and that massively moves everything. >> well, the fed is certainly important. the u.s. is the biggest economy. the fed is always the most important central bank. but let's not forget the ecb and the bank of japan. here are two of the major central banks of the world in fully fledged quantitative ea easing mode.

>> so you're not surprised the way the euro has rally since draghi eased significantly last week? >> i wouldn't pay -- myself, personally speaking, i come from a rating agency. we try to call credit over the cycle, the day to day. the fluctuations really don't surprise me. they're going to do what they're going to do and find their levels. monetary policy is one of the key drivers. >> maybe it's about the bank, as we were discussing earlier. the ecb policy was aimed at helping them. banks have rebounded. still negative for the year. but how much is that a signal that things are going to be okay with the markets and the economy? >> well, i think, you know, the real big picture here is that you have three major central banks. one, the fed obviously saying, look, we think the u.s. economy is in shape now, that monetary stimulus can be slowly withdrawn. but you have these other two, bank of japan and the ecb, which are really taking extraordinary measures. the bank of japan is still expanding its balance sheet by

the equivalent of about 16% of gdp. the ecb is sort of catching up. they're both in negative territory. i think markets are going to take some time to digest. what does that mean for foreign exchange rates? sometimes it'll mean that there's pessimism. why are these central banks having to do such dramatic policies? other times markets will say, well, this stuff is going to start to work at some point. >> banks were in the eye of the storm a month or so ago. particularly european banks. what's the sense that they're through the worst? there's nothing systemic there? >> well, that issue, frankly speaking, is probably going to come and go. it'll wax and wane. the big picture in the eurozone at the moment is partly because of this monetary stimulus, an economy that is actually on a recovery path. the starting point is way behind the u.s. u.s. real gdp is about 10% above the pre-crisis peak. real gdp in the eurozone, and japan for that matter, is barely

back to where it was early 2008. >> let's talk about the real economy. if the freakout in the markets this year was because of a pessimistic view about the global economy, has anything changed between january and now? >> well, throw in one other factor we haven't really talked about, which is china. a lot of angst coming into the new year about what was going on in china. of course, china plays into the foreign exchange markets dramatically now. things have changed. people have focused more back on the data. u.s. economy is recovering. between december and march, we had all that volatility. but the economy has been doing okay. broader measures of unemployment in particular coming down, which is very positive. the other thing is the markets and fed have got on the same page now with that meeting this week. >> let's also just touch on commodity exposed names. they've been under pressure early this year. how significant is this rally of oil up to 40? is the pressure on them?

>> i think what we're seeing there is in the commodity markets, the oil market in particular, a sense that the bottom is not falling out of this market. there's a bit of a cycle going on. we're coming back a little now. >> the bottom is not falling out, we're not in a recession, we're breathing a sigh of relief. but i guess the question we're trying to ask is, and now what? does that continue to exceed expectations whether it's the economy or commodities or central banks? >> well, it depends what your expectations are. but i think what happens now is the global economy continues to recover. the u.s. is probably going to grow at a little above 2%. eurozone above 1%. japan may get to 1% this year as well. the economic outlook when you detach yourself from some of this market volatility, you know, has never looked that bad. china, of course, a limplg pin. we think that's probably in for low sixes this year. >> paul, thank you for coming in. my chart of the week, dow transports. outperforming. can it continue? can they pull themselves out of correction?

>> mine is glencore. look how the leverage names to the commodity cycle have bounced this week. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" up in a couple minutes. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor. get organized at voya.com.

good morning. blue chips, believe it or not, back in the black. the dow turns positive for the year after a 150-point unexpected jump yesterday, while wti gets back to levels not seen since december, topping $40 for a while. i think it's pulling back a little today. calling all cars. the government warning motor vehicles are becoming more vulnerable to being hacked. and march madness is off and running. i had a couple losses but made up for by the bulldogs and yale and that ivy league shocker. mason, what a cool customer going into the end of that game.

we'll go inside round one. it's friday, march 18th, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're playing a little acdc this morning. the dow is finally back in black. the index is positive for 2016 for the first time after adding 156 points on thursday. this is the fifth positive session in a row. the dow is also up more than 11% from that bottom. it was the dimon bottom, when jamie dimon announced he was buying back his company's stock. right now, check out the futures. you're going to see this morning it looks like we're still in positive territory. dow futures indicating an open of about 22 points higher this morning. s&p futures up by close to