bell." john and mike, thank you guys as well for being here this afternoon. "fast money" begins right now. thanks, kell, thanks, gang. "fast money" does start right now. live from the flaz damage market cytooverlook new york city's times square, traders, tim seymour, pete najarian, brian kell and guy adami. tonight on "fast" commodities king dennis gartman has a gold call on oil and you won't believe what he says will keep prices low for decades to come. he'll explain. if you missed the rally a top technician says two groups of stocks are about to break out. we will give you the name and what do ford, caterpillar and american express have in common? it's a surprising coincidence that could mean money in your p.but, first, we start off with the markets and what may seem quiet ahead of yellen speaking tomorrow and the jobs report on friday there's been massive moves in consumer stocks. take a look at the one-month gain in molson, cures, nordstrom and coke all outperformi ining

market. look who is barks guy adammy. >> petey is back, too. two of you. >> we're back. >> different ends of the world. the answer is i don't know if you're betting on the consumer but you can bet on certain stocks. coca-cola is a name we talked about over the last couple of months talking about the potential for there to be no triple tops and now this stock is breaking out. i think it made an all-time high today. i think valuations are reasonable, so you want to call it betting on the consumer, that's fine. i'd rather bet on the company. >> i can bet on the consumer and also the ceo and management teams and when you look at j&j and masako, 52-week high, not just the consumer, other areas, coke clarks general mills another one of the names, but i think it's really oppressive. people have to understand that we're in a different environment and they are spending money differently than they were, and i think that's part of the whole thing with the fed and everybody's concerns about gdp and everything and all the revisions is because they are having to revise everything because they haven't quite figured out exactly how people

are spending and because of that there are specific names and not necessarily just specific groups that are performing. >> subsectors of the consumer household product, tobacco, staples, all done very well and some of these actually didn't do that well last year and you have beaten companies like a procter & gamble was given up for dead. everybody said structurally this company is in the mud and meanwhile one of the best performers kimberly clark. anything related to household goods, hygiene, you name, it continues to do well. it depends on what phase. market you're in and depending on who you ask, especially on this desk how about if you asked. >> i tell you what. we're actually in some phase kind of between late acceleration and possibly even rebound. i think it's a very, very choppy rechief of staffry. no question we're on a downward trajectory right now but to say we're going straight down below in recession is not something i'm willing to do. >> fits on what we've seen consumer discretionary over consumer staples, staples abate

a bit. >> i would call all of these staples. d.r. horton, let's put that aside. the others are staples, defensive stocks which fits with people buying utilities or investors buying utilities and what not and when i look at the big picture macro stuff i look at income which were not that great. atlanta fed is at 0.6% and for me i don't want to make a bet on a discretionary purchase. of those names for me, moulson coors is not necessarily discretionry. on my list would be beer and oreos. >> beer and oreos. >> some might say handbags, or a televisi television. >> coke is up 19% this year. >> what season are we in? >> spring. >> what do you do in the sebring? >> i know what i do. >> what do you do, you clean? >> buy any handbag, guy. >> what do you do? >> i plant in my garden, and where do you go? >> home depot. >> thanks very much, b.k. >> that's how you play the game. home depot at 19 times earnings

i don't think is expensive. bounced from 115 nicely. the last three or four years it's been exactly the market that home depot dreams of. >> you listed masako. d.r. horton. >> housing-related. things that are involved in the housing world, and i do think it is important that we point that out all the time volumeity. we lasted exactly like we did back in august. about a month and a half and suddenly volatility came back out of the market. will we settle in this area for a while? maybe, and i think it's really, really important to point out. volume, i don't know exactly how you phrased it at the top of the show. >> things look quiet. >> they were beyond quiet. today was not a half day. >> yeah. >> felt like to. >> and yet it was half the year-to-date average in the volume world. we traded -- >> for options. >> we're talking 9 million on a full day of trade here. i mean, that's absolutely unbelievable. we averaged 14 million last week. >> what does that tell you when you see that in the options world. >> >> tells me you have to be a little bit concerned that the volumes are not there right now and we're kind inform this flat

line mode just like last week. i left last week and didn't miss a thing. unfortunately, the brussels thing is something obviously and look at where stocks, where oil was, virtually everything is about unchanged. >> how nice is that we're in a place where things didn't really change that dramatically and yet if it was two months things would have been upside down so the fact is the matter we've gone 13%, 14% off the low and gotten through four or five major central bank meetings the last four or five months. yes, janet yellen, yes, there could be fireworks, fed at the end of the month and a couple of big economic data points at the end of the week and quarter end ant a lot of people who are hoping follow happens at quarter end and a lot of people chasing performance into quarter end. those are the dynamics at work but to say because things are so calm and have had a nice run that things are setting up for a big nasty fall i won't do. >> i think quarter end is really important for the very short term this week, right? essentially nothing going on. if you had this big 13% run you'll try to keep things up so

quarter end and the day after so friday will actually be a really big day and you will have gotten janet yellen, which perhaps she comes out. i have no idea what she's going to say. you have quarter end all the way through so any of that quarter end buying is going to be over with and then have you a jobs report on friday which, again, could throat market so for me i think you sit on your hands a bit here. don't need to make any bearish moves until you see data points this week. >> you've been known to say at times that you don't get a chance this long to sell the market. >> that's true. >> how are we in -- are we in that place right now? >> would you play would you rather -- >> let's do that later in the snow. >> the transports led us out. january 20th was the lost iyt, but if you look very carefully the last five or six days, i'm not ready to say it's rolling over, but it appears to be rolling over and the ovx. >> oil volatility. >> that stopped at 44 which is exactly where we took off from at the end of december.

now it's closer to 46, so if iyt is rolling over, i'm not ready to say yes, it is yet and if ovx is starting to go bank maybe the run in oil is over so maybe this 20, 35 level in the s&p could be a short-term top. >> anything left to play for a rally? our next group has two groups of stocks that could be on the verge of major breakouts. ari wald is hee. what are you looking at? >> one for the long-term investor and one for the short-term trader. long-term investors we think should be buying semiconductor stocks and speaking in terms of the stocks index, the semiconductor index, let's start with the very long-term view here. over the last year they are indeed coming off a double bottom, and what's significant about this, it's at a very important support level that marked a breakout above a decade long breakout in trend, so in essence what we think is happening within this very

long-term turnaround we think there's a more near-term turnaround taking place. now, indeed, you have to get through that peak at 693. that would confirm the reversal. how do you play this index as a pre-breakout idea. well, you want to buy the stocks that are already breaking out to the upside, and one of our favor rite names within the stocks is avago, now called broadcom limited, and after two years of trading sideways this stock is now breaking out of this two-year range at $150. new highs in a difficult tape. this is market leadership. this is what you want to buy. now let's get down into some beaten up names. this is more for the short-term traders. let's look at biotech. talk about a fall from grace here. the biotech etf trigger ibb has now retraced 50% of its gains since 2011 meaning this. if you're looking for stabilization we think that this is where it occurs, however. the trend is still down so i think this is for a short-term

traders that can be out quick if that downtrend resumes. here's the trade. we think you buy ibb with a protective stop placed below the march low at 242. below there. the base is broken and you're out. however, on the upside, now that we've stabilized for about two months i think you're better positioned to get that move above 270 and i think that you can get that counter trend move to about $300. you got your october lows in there, a key retracement of the decline. that's a trade for ibb. >> hey, it's brian. a quick question on that. it's in a major downtrend. you're essentially trading a correction here so are there different rules that you use technically to trade a correction versus trading something like you say trading a stock index that looks like it's trading out and breaking higher? >> exactly. that's the whole idea of the long-term idea versus the short idea. for the countertrend moves, i think you have to have that

short-term focus because you are going against this downtrend and indeed that's still in place. i think you have a lot of potential rewards to get that right, and also a lower probability of success. this is only for those that can cut ties as quickly as needed. low 242 you want to get out of there. >> ari, thanks for coming back. ari wald of oppenheimer. now we're going to play would you rather. >> i love this game. >> ari's biotech trade or semiconductor trade, as brian aptly points out, one is a very short-term trade and the other one is sort of on a breakout. >> semiconductorses, definitely would rather and intel to mesa classic example of where you can actually be defensive in this market, okay. a company that's now 15% off those lows and to me despite everyone knows what the pressers are in pc these guys absolutely have some clear moats around their business. the ecosystem computer data system is lumping and something

around 31, again, a key level on the stock market. i want to see this thing hold 35 and if it breaks through there. i think we are in this trend. >> pit boss sns. >> i'm bullish on tech which means i think you have to be bushel on chips. i like apple. watched the great move out of apple, a lot have traded or apple moving up to 100 or even 105, sirrous logic, intel real stands out. the one thing i would say about biotech is because of the political landscape i don't know how we can own biotech unless you've got put protection in place because the way things have traded ever since hillary's first tweet up until now it has been an absolute roller coaster ride. it's going to be nauseous i think for a lot of people. i think a lot of names are great names. i think they trade at great valuations but that doesn't mean that that can't change if the

political landscape can change and push things around. >> meg terrelle was pointing out a letter by 12 congressmen to urge the investigation of price ing practices. >> who has pricing power? that's the problem with the bitext. you know they don't have pricing power and biotechs are a sell ol on rallies until the election. semiconductors, for a very long time, you can get b.k. excited and with tim on dividends because of intel. buy intel and get the dividend and hold it for a long time. >> quickly, would you rather? >> i agree with the west side of the desk. you know what west, because i'm east of -- east side, west. >> i understand. >> broadcom, you look at their report. reported about a month ago, an excellent report, 12 times forward earnings, doesn't make it expensive.

jeffrey's has a 180 price target. abgo, i think that goes higher. i don't like biotech. >> up next, is the street wrong on several big-cap stocks in the market? if you like being contrarian i like that you have more opportunities. and while many oil traders may be looking at opec, one silicon valley unicorn has the commodities king dennis gartman really worried about the crude trade. he'll tell us why when "fast money" returns. you are called the father of behavioral economics. i've been called a lot of things. i have read all of your books. did you learn anything? i learned that humans are complicated. we're emotional. absent-minded. and we make some really bad decisions. my trade-off analytics can help companies make better decisions, but i am still learning what makes people tick. what makes you tick watson? natural language processing, reasoning algorithms, statistical parsing.

now you are just showing off. reasoning algorithms, statistical parsing. out on the town or in for the night, at&t helps keep everyone connected. right now at at&t, buy the new samsung galaxy s7 and get one free. no matter how you hang out, share every minute of it. buy one water resistant samsung galaxy s7 and get one free and right now, get up to $650 in credits per line to help you switch to at&t.

welcome back to "fast money." if you like to go against the grain, credit suisse has a louis of contrarian stocks. three american icons making that list, caterpillar, american express and ford and, tim, where do you stand on the contrarian plays? >> i agree on caterpillar, but their argument isn't an emphatic bull case. they saying three-game guys are operational leverage and restructuring means these guys have a decent balance sheets and i would agree with all of that.

on ford, they are basically saying that these guys have actually mismanaged inventory and their margins are much worse than gm and the next guys are at the top of the cycle. autos as we've talked about in the shows. saying this company is as poorly i think in terms of the operational side of the business and sgma and key levels here on a number of auto names are ford right now. i'll go to the man who likes to be contrarian. you don't really need an emphatic buy or sell rather than being different consensus. >> probably more important. >> either a little bit to the upside or downside and you're still surprised in the street. >> right. so of these particular names i would be very cautious on ford, for exactly the reason you talked about. we talked about the fact that auto sales are flat-lining at best and if not declining. we've seen the subprime loans. delinquency starting to climb and auto i want to stay completely away from. there was one name and you want

tonight contrarian and contrarians here. it was a name they didn't like. valm ho nt, vmi. i make all the polles and lights and everything for infrastructure, so what i'll say is if we see some kind of infrastructure spending here in the u.s., you want to buy valmont. >> being contrarian being a contrarian. >> consensus. i'm confused. >> they are saying that their view and you're saying you're not with the contrarian. >> i hate that. i don't want to be contrarian just to be contrarian. >> yes. >> just against my nature. >> just to jump back into this whole thing, that makes no sense. they are losing and losing back to visa and mastercard, end of story. >> citi is shipping out costco cards. remember when american express started to turn. >> a little over year ago.

>> costco. >> you're positive on amex. >> no, no. >> they have got an underperform on the stock. >> i'm so confused. >> i'm just trying to get this straight. >> let's move on. >> i'm just against it. >> let's move on here. >> virgin american hitting on the highest level on buyout talks that they received offers from jetblue and alaska air and a deal announcement could come as soon as next week. pete? >> i lost space and love the names. i didn't see enough but reaction out of virgin. huge move to the upside but they underperformed and i'd be shocked if we see any merger. >> why? >> remember, not that long ago everybody was up in arms about the idea, got, how do we let this happen? these guys have pricing power and the senator and everyone wanted to go after delta and

american and potentially saying why aren't they moving prices? prices have come down and they are not moving prices, blah, blah, blah. i'd be shocked based on that alone if it would happen. it would make some sense of me to see some sort of and a little bit of conglomeration coming down. >> in the last quart their virgin america reported fuel costs came down 33%. unit revenue was down 5%, so even with all of those savings they still could not turn the unit revenue positive. >> yes. and the stocks have sort of flat lined for a while. >> a name like jetblue, 27 down to 18 and trading 20 now. if you need a name and want to play downstream, look at rockwell collins at 16 times forward earnings and probably about 8% or 9% off its all-time high. that to me is if you don't want to be in the airlines specifically. >> dennis gartman has a bold call on crude but you will not guess what has oil prices to come for years to come. he'll explain when "fast money"

returns. meantime, here what else is coming on "fast." >> buyback behemoths and could some of the buybacks be bad for investors. >> surely you can't be serious. >> i am serious but please don't call me shirley. >> that and a warning sign for market. ♪ baby, come back >> and that is what investors are singing as investors return to the sea suite. is it better time the second time around? a look at some of the biggest ceo kids and how stocks fared for investors. much more "fast money" after this. that is cyber-crime and it affects each and every one of us. microsoft created the digital crimes unit to fight cyber-crime. we use the microsoft cloud to visualize information

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you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t. welcome back to "fast money." i'm seema mody. footlocker is joining the index, replacing cameron which is being acquired by schlumberger. the changes to the index will be made after the close on friday april 1st so the retailer is joining the s&p 500. you can see the stock about 1.6% after hours. melissa. >> seema, thank you.

seema mode. pete najarian, you're a big footlocker fan. >> i love this name, and i think they would be performing better than it has. we watched some of the moves and some of the other athleisure names. you would expect footlocker to really react better than it has. it has not and look at this thing from a valuation perspective and trading at 15 times earnings. i like this name. going to the s&p, a lot of people are going to start to jump at this. i actually think you're not chasing it if you decide to go after it. >> nike says direct to consumers stronger about athleisure at finish line. >> did you see finish line's numbers last wyche? they had some disappointing projections going forward, but numbers were very strong, and it seems like they are starting to get their act together, so, yes, they have got to compete. >> the big picture for all the businesses though is nike's squeezing margins, and that to me is something that you have to face and that's why i would be buying any weakness in nike and overpay for valuation and that controls pricing. >> buybacks are playing had a major role in this year's markets but are companies going

to buy back stock and really a better investment? our guest is here to answer that question. hi, eric. >> how you doing, melissa. we crunched the numbers and looked at the s&p, 1,500, not just the 500 companies but went deeper. if you look at every company that doesn't have a buyback, they do much better than the companies that have the biggest buybacks. the returns are about the same. the big buyback guys and the no buyback guys, you can see it's 15% to 17, but if you go another three years, take it from years two to five, now that gap is huge, 85% to 22%, so if you're patient you will see the companies that buy back, they start to lose money and can't invest as much because they have given the cash away. look at the companies, apple, exxon, ibm, pfizer. they spent tens of billions of dollars on buybacks and if you compare their performance in the

five years only one of them has beaten the market average and that's apple and that's been going down a lot recently. they are a good example for what you're seeing in the broader market and the companies that spend the most on buyback tend to go more and go past that when you look at buybacks. >> in terms of the five-year time frame, five years from the buyback, initiation. buyback or a flat five years ago from today this is what the companies did. >> we played with it a lot of different ways, initiation, five years, ten years, different groupings and however you sliced it you got the same message. obviously the numbers differ in their details, but the point is the same. the vast majority of them. they lose compared to the market. >> thanks so much. eric chemi, confirmed the general belief on this desk. >> that to me is the big issue, right? so what's happening, the mechanics behind it they are not reinvesting in the business and eventually only so much they can do with the buyback and they weren't necessarily reinvesting

their business and simply buying back their stocks and overtime that doesn't work, so as we get going on here and buybacks are the only thing holding this market up i would be concerned as time goes on that that's going to be less and less impactful on the market. >> apple, i don't think that's the case at all. that's a company that's unbelievably cash flow and they are astounding. they have every reason, a lot of pressure on them from an activist perspective. this to me is not the case. the very nature of their business is cher supposed to being paid back dividends and that's what they do and through cycles, all is a long-term cyclical business and that's what buy backs do. i think it's the right call for them. i don't think we can paint them all with the same brush. >> i agree with not paying with the same brush but ibm has been a disaster. probably closing in on $45 billion of buybacks and think about if they had just done this. if they bought sales force let's say three years ago for that kind of money, think about what

bert shape that company would be in right now. they bought that stock back. they didn't have any vision and one of the unintended consequences of the fed is to allow companies to have easy money. they report on the 18th of april, i think have you to fade it. >> i think you have to look at this at a different way, like warren buffett looks at it. is it a consistent buying company. i looked at target today, 3-m, lockheed martin, they have shrunk 20% to 30%. you know what that does to your earnings over the time frame and suddenly those things have gone up. >> ibm did the same thing. >> but it depends what they are doing. are they doing it trying to time it or are they doing it for different reasons. i think it's -- i think what we've seen over the last couple of years of the financial crisis has been timing. i'm going back ten years or longer. target has been doing it for the better part of 50 years so it depends on why are they doing it and is there a consistency? >> apple has had a product over the last five years that has

just been killer, right? show if you have a buyback and a killer broadcast or reinvesting in their company and perhaps could argue target is doing the same things, those are your best investments. >> think that's bad for valeant now, after losing half its value in the past month why things are going to get a lot worse? don't call it a comeback or can you? does being ceo at the helm work wonders for the stock in more "fast money" right after this.

i'm eamon javers where capitol police have locked down after shooting at the security checkpoint, a place where tourists funnel through security in order to get into the capitol itself. we're learning a little bit more about the man who appears to be at the center of this incident. nbc news' pete williams

reporting that his name is larry russell dawson, of antioch, tennessee. he's a person who capitol police knew prior to incident, and it appears he was involved in an incident back in october in which he disrupted a house hearing. we've gone back and pulled some. video. we think this is the video in which the same man disrupted that hearing back in okay. take a look at this. >> the chair notes the disturbance in the gallery in contravention of the law and rules of the house. . sergeant at arms will remove those persons responsible for the disturbance and restore the order to gallery. >> apologies. that was the house floor, not a house hearing, but that is what we think was the disturbance in which this same suspect interrupted proceedings there on the house side of the capitol. today's shooting incident happened, as i say, at the capitol visitor center. what we're told is this individual was given a stay away

order or court order mandating that he stay away at the capitol complex and that video there, you can see some of the scary but orderly moments right after the incident in which witnesses told me that capitol police told them first to duck for cover and hide behind a barrier. then to evacuate the capitol visitors center itself and police cordoned off a big piece with a police presence extending two or three blocks to where this incident happened. this is where a very high security area in weese, and it's an area where police are prepared for this kind of thing. they train for it and they had to handle one today. melissa. >> eamon, thanks for the update. >> you've got some breaking news on apple and let's get to seema mody at headquarters. >> a report from the "usa today" that the justice department is expected to withdraw its california legal action against apple. this, of course, is the ongoing case around apple's iphone and the san bernardino shooting and "usa today" reporting that the u.s. department is expected to

withdraw its california legal action against apple. there was some talk in the past couple of days and the government potentially using a third party had approached them on a different solution that could get them access to the iphone used in the shooting and perhaps that method is being considered. the details, a report from the "usa today"? if we get any further details we'll sure to bring them to you? >> seema mody, thanks very much. there were reports that apple was tapping an israeli company to help it unlock that phone. you wonder if it was successful at this point, if they are withdrawing this action. >> apple or the government. >> apple. the government, yeah. >> the government. it's also interesting that even if the government has found a way into this phone, that they might be taking the pressure off of apple for an issue that will likely come up again. trog see where this goes. >> unless it's a third party that can do it over and over again. >> that's positive in terms of that apple -- apple afears have

won the public relations where we protect our customers. >> i'm not sure that they have won anything. i think a lot of people think they should. >> maybe, maybe, maybe, but more importantly i would say i'm questioning now, okay, so is the apple phone hackable? that's the bigger question? if the third matter can do it -- >> had that been a concern though for most people out there? >> for me clearly not a concern. you can get into my phone all you want. you can hack away. >> your passsword 1, 2, 3, 4. >> from a public relations standpoint we in the media have blown this up quite frakely. i don't think the stock sold off dramatically based upon them and i don't think it's written because of anything positive or neglectity. the stock is trading because of whatever a s&l doing as a company and less what's going on with the government. >> let's turn now to oil here. owe peng and non-opec producers invited to meet on april 17th to discuss the potential oil output free. who is out? who is in?

cnbc's jackie deangelis is at the nyse. >> good evening to you, melissa. oil prize rising 20% in the last month alone on the hope that this producing meeting on april 17th will end in a production freeze. remember, it's not an emergency meeting. the next official meeting. cartel is going to be in june but it's a meeting of global producers to sort of find some accord so who is coming. what will it matter? the guest list includes some. opec members but not all of them. some of them have opted out including libya and iran and with the resignation of the iraqi oil minister last week because it's unclear that that country will have a delegate at that meeting and while the saudis may show, they have no reason to freeze or cut production and they have made that clear. the russians is have been encouraging a freeze and they are likely to play along but there's been no talk of sending a u.s. delegate to attend this meeting. with all of the parties not coming to the table here the market seems a little skeptical that an accord is going to take place.

it definitely is going to be easier to achieve consensus why everyone is going to be there. with oil trading under 40 expectations are here for another drop, maybe not as drastic in the 20s but mid to upper 30s, certainly realisticity moment. >> oil watch remembers focused on opec it's uber that our next guest says could be the biggest threat and here what was said this morning on cnbc. >> when somebody or an enemy comes in and represes competition for the first time in decades becomes, you know, some people call it disruptive, but it's about change and it's actually about positive change. here in china we're like within a next year, we're going to create 20,000 jobs. we're going to take hundreds of thousands of cars off the road which is going to make pollution in the air much bert and save people time like that's just fundamentally good. >> dennis gartman, is the editor of the gartman left.

dennis, why is uber that much of a threat to oil? >> well, i think uber is a threat to oil for the simple reason that millennials have become uber -- have taken uber to task or to embrace it very effectively or efficiently or dramatically. the average, at the margin all prices are made and all demand or supply is creed or lost, the millennials are saying i really don't need an automobile. if you take a look at the average amount of driving that has taken place in the united states through the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and into the 90s it's a very well and clearly defined trend line. weave broken that dramatically and we're off that trend and i think it's something that will continue for a long period of time. i think uber takes cars off the road and diminishes the amount of oil and that's a long-term various implication for oil and for the automobile industry. >> i don't drive and i love using uber and taxi cabs. >> yes. >> it doesn't mean i travel

fewer miles. >> i don't drive them myself. isn't the oil still being consumed by the uber drivers who are taking the millennials around? just because they are not in the their own car doesn't mean the miles aren't traveled. >> if you look at the amount of driving that's done in the united states in the course of the last ten years it is dramatically off trend, completely off trend of i've got a chart in tomorrow's newsletter that shows how dramatic this is. through '07, '08, '09, '10 we moved sideways and moved up to new highs in the amount of mileage, but we're so far below the trend that existed for the previous 60 years, yes, there will be more driving being done, but it's well below trend and it's well below the amount of increased oil production going on out there. i think on balance that's a terribly bearish circumstance. >> no way that fuel efficiency and electric vehicles are making a dent in that? >> fuel efficiency is making a huge dent in it. i have a jaguar that's ten years old and still gets 28 miles to

the gallon compared to the first car i had in 1967 which was a plymouth valiant that got 7 miles to the gallon. fuel efficiency is astonishinging and that's having a bearish impact no question. >> dennis, one of the appearances you made on our show and you make many, of course, you're a friend of the show you said you won't see oil $44 in your lifetime. we're higher now, so now what? >> that might have been a bit over the top, but i do think it's going to be very difficult -- that's not the first time i've made a fool of myself or a mistake, but i suspect $42 to be honest is going to be very difficult to get through. so many wells have been capped. so many wells that have been drilled that will be brought online very quickly. once you get to $42, if you could a contango of $4 or $5 for the one year, that puts you out one year at $47 to $48 a payable and most of the bakken and the most of the permian and any of the fracking areas in the united

states, $47 for one year forward is very profitable level of production. i think it will be very difficult. i -- i can't preconclude fact that there might be some political upheaval some place in russia. some political upheaval some place in nigeria and political upheaval in the middle east that might give you a one-off circumstance but on balance looking at supply and demand i think it's very difficult to get crude oil beyond 42 and in the spot in the one-year deferred. >> dennis, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter. a couple things town pack on uber. who is with dennis on this thesis? >> guy's iroc "z" is very fuel efficient. >> that thing is a gas guzzler, guzzler. >> i agree with you, mel. i think that people are going the same distances. fuel efficiency and electric cars are a big deal but when i think about the biggest issue in the oil sector, right now dennis also talks about a futures curve which people basically,

producers hedging away any. upside and any producers are hedging had the upside and any upside to the business which to me medium term is capping any new production coming online. i think this is very bullish for bullish supply. yes, they will go out of business at $40 and they are hedging away upside and that's not good for new production and it means two to three years and we'll in a demand mismatch. >> you want to defend your iroc z. >> what dennis is talking about, people like timmy will not be joyriding on sunday in their iroc. that's exactly is t. >> that's -- that's a muss thing -- '66 mustang convertible, by the way. >> anyway, with that said. >> even at $40 oil, what stocks are expensive, and would i submit schlumberger which has bounceded from a double bottom of 60 to 78, now at 72. at 28 times forward earnings is way too expensive. they report i think in a couple weeks, so some of these names

this ran too far too fast on the move to the upside. >> not talking about cuts but freezes and the other thing, we've seen a shift which was all bullish, maybe dash for trash. starting to see a shift, the very little options that we're seeing in the world. we're seeing more and more of it going towards negative. a little bit of a pullback expected. >> doesn't mean we're dropping ten bucs but a pullback is expect sglltd bigger thing that dennis was talking about is how it will impact the auto dealers or auto companies. i've seen reports within five years that there's going to be half the amount of cars produced so you may drive the same miles and all in the same car so for me instead of playing oil would much rather play, short the auto names on this. >> still ahead, it's the saga. ceo. pandora the latest to reform a ceo but does a throwback strategy real work? much more "fast money" ahead.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of pandora falling 12% today after the music streaming giant announced its founder would return as ceo. this, of course, isn't the first time we've seen a company with a comeback ceo. take a look at some other names is a man himself who is always in charge, cnbc's dom chu. hey, dom. >> reporter: well, melissa, i don't know if i'm always in charge. i don't think i've ever in charge at all but i really appreciate the sentiment but let's talk about some guys who were in charge are have been in charge and just what they have done for their respective stocks. talk about ceos who have come back to kind of lead the

organizations that they were a big part of to begin with. first of all, let's take a look at jc penney on the mid-scale retail side of things. mike ullman, ceo then to be brought back again. initially 2002 to 2012, came back for a couple of years and then in 2015 and in the first three months he came back, the stock was rewarded, up about 16%, but a year later shares were still down about 41%. some secular headwinds for companies like jc penney, you can see there. during that tenure the stock had fallen quite a bit here show you can't really just weigh the first initial response. let's take a look at another ceo that was there, came back again and we'll talk about howard schultz over at starbucks and take a look at this. founder, ceo-type person and initially came back and then 2008, still ceo today, and initially three months out, 6% down and one year later 46%. remember, this is all during the

financial cries kiss. can't put a lot on howard schultz, but take a look at what the stock has done since then. a huge move higher, doubling in price, more than doubling in price under his leadership there, so perhaps a success story longer term and one more to end, the biggest one of them all to one point and still is to a certain degree today. steve jobs, the late great steve jobs, counter, co-founder of apple, ousted and came back from '77 to 2011. the is first time he came back the stock dipped 20% but since then a year later 67% and we all know just how big apple got under steve jobs' leadership so, again, it's all about whether or not you can see some of those longer-term effects. you can't make that call just from the first few months on the job. melissa, back over to you guys. >> thanks to you, dom chu. breaking news on apple. eamon javers has the story >> reporter: u.s. government has made a new filing in this long-running apple versus the fbi fight. you remember that whole battle was whether or not the fbi and

the u.s. government more broadly could force apple to write new software that would allow the fbi to get access to the san bernardino syed rizwan farook's ioane. now in the new filing the government says it's successfully accessed the data stored on the iphone and, therefore, no longers requires the assistance from apple, inc, mandated by an earlier court order so that means that this entire fight is now foot and that somehow the fbi figured out another way without apple'sans tans to get into this iphone. what we know about all of this is that last weekend some unnamed third party approached apple and told them they had a potential solution to hack into the iphone. it would appear, at least initially based on this filing, that that was successful and that the fbi was able to use whatever technique that was to get the data it was looking for off of farooq's iphone and everyone wants to know whether that data was helpful in this investigation or not. melissa. >> i think more people want to know exactly how this was done, eamon. no denails in the filing -- the

company had been reported to be an israeli company and you've got to wonder whether this is a universal key of some sort or just the unlock of this particular known. >> yeah. we don't know the answer to that, and i don't believe we've got that name of the particular firm confirmed from u.s. government sources that that was in fact the firm involved here. that's a name that's been circulating over the past week and one of the questions will be how exactly did the u.s. government get into this phone? it was said by the government to be impossible to do without apple's assistance, and apple said for its side of the argument that writing software to allow access to this phone would simply be so dangerous to encorruption security around the world if that software were to get out into the wild, so to speak, to escape from apple's control and be out there for other's to use it. would now appear apple's worst nightmare from a security perfect sieve happening which is somebody out there does have a way to get into the iphone. apple has never said that their phone is not -- is 100%

uncrackable, but they have said it would be dangerous to create that software. it looks like is somewhere has that software. >> and whoever that somebody is now the number one target of hackers out there, i would venture a guess. >> that might be not why they are naming who it is. >> eamon javers in d.c. >> wow. somebody does hold the keys to the kingdom instead of how to uncrack that crackable phone. huge sigh of relief for the u.s. government. saying the fbi couldn't get things open. that's not very comforting either so i'm not sure which side is actually more disconcerting but to say that this fight is over obviously. we've just begun this whole process, the court date is moot relative to this event and we're going to hear about this soon and companies will be forced and called under the carpet. >> if i'm apple and i'm not and i'm signature on a bunch of cash and i know this company out there, let's say we know, that would be a takeout target. >> good call.

>> why wouldn't apple just buy this company? >> maybe they don't know who this company. >> maybe we don't know who the company. >> maybe it's not that reported israeli company. >> seems moot. valeant under pressure as its ceo is subpoenaed and one trader think there's more pain to come for the biotech stock and he'll tell you why after the break. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. baa oh remotes, you've had it tough.

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time for the time frayed. tim seymour? >> talk about stocks that work, beverage stocks. pepsi still works in this take. >> pete najarian? >> talk about management all the time on this show and i think one of the best management out there, target. it's going higher. >> brian kell? >> so i think the oil sector, at least oil in general, is looking a little bit lower here. you want to sell xle or take profits or short it. >> guy adammy in. >> i'm going to sandwich tim.

>> easy, easy. >> whoa, whoa. >> coca-cola. >> easy. >> sandwiching tim is aggressive. >> i'm melissa lee. seem you back here tomorrow at my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach. call me at 1-800-747-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. tonight i want to talk to you about the big picture, building wealth in general and not just ownings