>> that was exactly. >> very well done, mike. >> exactly. just going to leave it right there. guys, thank you so much. carol roth and mike santolli. does it for us on "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk are tim seymour, karen finerman, brian kell and pete najarian. tonight on "fast" the u.s. dollar is heading for its worst month in five years, and if you think today's mavis move in stocks is built off the dollar's slide, we'll tell you why you could be dead wrong. plus, it's berkshire hathaway screaming buy with or without the oracle at the helm. that's what one analyst says, and he's here to explain why berkshire could rally 15% higher from here. later, apple is on a tear, officially exiting bear market territory and why apple's rally could soon come to a screeching halt. a chart you've got to see. we start off with what was a very big day for stocks and s&p

and fed chair janet yellen said caution and rising rates is warranted -- raising rates, i should say and take a look at the risk-on moves. biotech and small caps seeing huge gains on the day so with free money seemingly now forever, what do you do with your portfolio now. tim, why don't you kick it off. >> mere mortals don't mess with central banks, that's the message and what janet yellen said not only are we worried about what's going on around the world we might be worried about u.s. corporate profits, good idea and we're worried about that as well and when you get down to it the pressure that comes off the dollar, brian has an interesting chart later hon in the show and things that were sold off on the back of a strong dollar, and i would argue that started back in july of 2014. they are things that can continue to rally, but, i'm not someone that's saying you should chase into this rally right here. in fact, i think we've had a 14% run off the floor on the s&p. not advocating jumping in and buying, and i do think that there's value, another topic we'll cover later in the show. i'll leave it at that. >> fantastic teases there.

>> that's what i do, it's tv. >> magical chart that's coming up later on the show. >> it is fairly magical, if i must say so. >> in terms what have janet yellen sailed she said the economy is real know better since december. if you read the subtext or just the text of what she said it was not good for the u.s. economy and here we are -- >> she came out dovish and said because the global economy is slowing so tim brought up corporate profits. they have been falling for multiple quarters. they are down 18% since january of 2014, so we're looking at what people are calling a profits recession, so if you're buying stocks at these levels, you have to believe that corporate profits are going to turn up to justify these valuations. i don't think they are going to, particularly since the federal reserve told you the economy is slowing and b.k. has been telling you the economy is slowing and everybody is seeing the global economy is slowing so i don't think you want to be buying stocks. >> let me push back on that. >> please do so. >> devil's advocate. so part of the reason earnings were slowing is a lot of

companies that are multi-nationals, currency really was a huge headwind. if that turns around a little bit, i think we'll start to see improvement in earnings. >> that's a superb question because i've got a great question coming up. >> i don't even know why. >> yes. >> let's take a look at the market today. today the market is telling me, you know what, risk on, moving in emerging markets, small caps. >> had oil down and that was pressuring the markets to the downside and we were down in the s&p, down 100 points on the dow. started moving up, and as soon as the chair started to talk we started to see the market move into positive territory but the interesting part of the move really came from gold. the way gold started screaming, i saw a little bit of paper, yesterday morning scott came up to me, the first question on monday morning, peter, what are you dying today? i bought new mining and the only reason i did is gold has had some swings but also i saw a little bit of option activity coming in there. those went and this is why i trade options more than i often

do stocks. >> right. >> the options went from 22 cents to 83 cents. >> wow. >> not so bad, so if somebody says are you still in there in the answer is no. i'm disciplined enough to say i'm out of here and got a little bit lick but gold's run, still in the gdx because i don't think it's over just yet and when you look at rates, you listen to miss yellen and all the different conversation today, there's some stuff that's going to continue to move to the upside. >> that's the biggest takeaway i took from this that she is saying they are willing to tolerate a little more inflation than their 2% target so gold is your inflation hedge so people will have a little of that that brings new buyers in. >> every time people are calling for the market to be way overpriced, i would argue that the s&p is expensive here because i'm concerned about corporate profits but the context for what we're talking about right now in time with rates where they are at the end of the cycle means nobody knows. nobody knows where the fed is. no one knows what stocks should probably be worth, but i would argue that they should be argue a lot more than they have been in the past because you get nothing from the bond market. if i'm buying, again, not every stock, but i think there's a lot

of very good companies that executing in this environment, and that's -- it's a starbucks and nike, it's companies that are expensive, but they are companies continuing to grow and they probably do have the dollars as tailwind. >> companies that offer dividend yields and what we saw was a further bid into the top performing sectors of the yield, telecom and utilities and staples. take a look at general mills, an all-time high in the stock. at this point tim makes a good point. what are these stocks worth? a lot of analysts have come on saying these stocks are expensive relative to themselves and in this market environment maybe they deserve the premium. >> the dividends that you think of as defensive. it's a nice spot to be in if you're both defensive and offensive which i guess they seem to be although that's not normally my thing to. me i look at the big loser in this rally was financials which i know b.k. hasn't liked. >> still managed to finish the day higher overall. >> there's decent dividends there for jpmorgan, a name like that. >> and how about the move in

tech? >> i mean, that can't be overlooked. tech, you can talk all you want about valuations and talk about this and look at some of the valuations and look at some. names like intel on the chip side and microsoft. look at the move in microsoft, pretty extraordinary and move to the upside as well and tech is not dead. even my bear here to my right, to pat you on the back, you're not as bearish for sure. >> because of the dividend. >> that would be my point, right? >> and it made sense to me that tech outperformed today because you get a dividend, so to your point, what stocks -- >> i don't think it's just a dividend. there's growth and valuation levels, whether it's an alor or a microsoft you can go down the list and google one of karen's favorites. these are names that still have incredible amounts of growth and their cash flows are incredible as well >> i agree. >> my question back is how long do you hang in a train in terms of the dollar trade or things related to the dollar until it becomes something that's just not working. you've got to pack it in. say something is absolutely different because the way i've seen markets respond to

overreaction is now i think people -- i don't think things are fantastic but markets have settled back into a sense of i think relative value. >> so that's actually probably the best question we've ever had on this show because it's all about position sizing. we all know that. we can go out there and talk about buy this stock and buy that stock but it's really all about position sizing and how you're hedging your positions so my view on the economy is we're in a multi-year bear market. therefore, my position has to be smaller than a position that i would take if i'm going to be out of it in a couple of weeks. we've had a month of a rally, that's it. that's it. one month of a rally. i'm okay with that. at some point, you know, on the way up i have been buying calls against my position to hedge. you certainly want to hedge, but if we don't -- you know, i may buy some more calls if the market wants to blow higher. i can't help that but my view won't necessarily change. >> i should say, central banks continue to bring out new tools out of their toolboxes and to assume they can't continue to do that. i love to see normalization, brian. i wouldn't mess with it.

>> i want to get to your magical chart here, perfect opportunity because it looks like today's rally was built on a weaker dollar but b.k. says that weaker dollar trend may not be for long. >> tim brought up the assumption that central banks are always here to help us out. they can control markets and they will be able to step on a bunch of different levers and pull a bunch of different levers. let's look at the u.s. dollar because the currency one thing that central banks are supposed to be able to control. so let's look at what happened to the dollar during multiple qe. here's the first qe beginning back in 2008. they upped it in march of 2009. the dollar dropped 14.8%. not so bad. fed has control over the dollar. let's wait for the next one. come on. let's see if we've got it. no. all right. so the next one, here we go. all right. so now we have qe-2-ending and now we have that rally. bernanke hints at qe2 okay at

the jackson hole, and on this drop down to where qe-2-ended we've got a 10.8% decline. then we had a israeli until qe3 begins, but look what happened from qe3 to the end of qe3, you had an 8.5% rise, and granted this big run up here was part of the taper tantrum and everybody getting ahead of the fed, but if you look at the low here on the dollar, when qe3 was announced, the dollar went higher ever since it was announced so it's a false assumption to think that the federal reserve has control over the u.s. dollar and that any central bank can unlimitedly control the markets. >> but, brian, are you saying that that means that the dollar is going higher? >> yes. >> because they can't control and it's out of control? >> i think, yes. i think the dollar strength is out of the fed's control and that's -- i don't want to get too wonky into it but because it's about oil. >> you yourself think the u.s. economy is a sham. >> i don't know about sham.

>> not going so well. >> right. >> if we're in a place where the gdp, first quarter gdp not so much and fourth quarter gdp revised up and look at the difference between usgdp, 50, of 0 basis points and people are talking about their totally different places and the fed might be making into recession to use what a lot of people think is a recession and maybe you don't, but these are things that will push the dollar down. anything, you're tightening an economy that can't afford this. >> on the contrary. i would totally disagree with that. the reason why i think the dollar is going higher is because we have dollar-denominated debts, the largest amount we've are seen. dollars are not flowing out of u.s. is to serve advice that debt. there there's a global de-leveraging going on. that global de-leveraging will push the dollar higher no matter what the fed does and no matter what the economy does and when i talk about things going awry there are multiple potholes out there. i don't know which one is going to blow up, but what happens in recessions, which i'm still in

that camp here in the u.s. things start to blow up so that's why i'm concerned but the dollar can go higher no matter what the fed does or what the economy does because of the global de-leveraging. >> so your corollary, short commodity, short gold miners, short markets. >> and we saw oil today, did not really rally off of the fed, so, yeah, short sum of the commodities and short the banks again as well because i think as you have a stronger dollar you're going to get lower rates on the long end. >> short in commodities and shorting emerging markets work for trading two and a half times and more. we've seen revaluation and production pullbacks and if you look at where commodities started to sell off it's when the dollar started to real. if you think the dollar is going higher, stay in that trade to. me that is yesterday's trade and it's a trade that actually is a dangerous trade. >> let's not be too dramatic here, tim. first of all, we've had a huge rally in oil off the bottom, almost a 50% rally, so it's not like i'm shorting into a hole here, so i'm -- i would not call

it a a dangerous or crazy trade. >> first of all, pat on the back because you talked about some. hedge which i think is very, very important. when you're shorting you're buying calls and buying them in an extremely big rate. kudos to you for your protection being very lee on a one-month rally in the markets. silver, where do you stand on silver? where do you stand on gold because i know you've been big. if gold is going up, this is going up, you like silver as the one that's going to outperform. >> i like sell vir because it's lagged and for one of the reasons that tim just mention the, that 70%. silver supply comes as a by-product of copper mining and other base metal mining, so if that production is going to be cut in, then silver supply is coming off the market and has lagged the gold, so i like silver better than gold on a relative trade. >> apple is rebounding and is the rally about to come to a screeching halt.

we'll explain what's got some traders so they are vows and don't look now the nasdaq is actually outperforming the s&p 500, a look at what to do with some. biggest tech stocks. the name and whether there's more room to run and later is berkshire hathaway a buy with or without them at the helm and why it's never been cheaper to buy buffet right now.

welcome back to "fast money." a news alert on chesapeake energy. ceo robert lawler's pay rising to 15.4 million from 14.7 million in 2014, this despite the massive underperformance in the stock in 2015. the stock down 77% last year. melissa? >> thank you very much, seema mody. now call me a skeptic, but that doesn't seem like much of a pay increase, karen. >> obviously tied to insentives. >> sort of like the hitter, you know, whose team came in last and looking for a raise and he's like i can come in last without you. >> sports metaphor. >> yeah. >> it's hard to see. this company is strapped for cash. i don't know the specifics, but,

wow, on the surface, and probably firing people left and right. >> cap "x," op-"x," things that the company can even run its business. can't claim to know what the contract says. >> i'm in some putts and this just sort of adds to the conviction that i have that it's more negative than positive and if you're cutting back everywhere else how can you say after being down 77% you've done an outstanding job. >> who bumped this guy's pay up? >> that's amazing. >> i'll tell you what, i'll do the job for half the money. >> move of the day, home builders etf, more than 1.5% and it was a good news out of linnaar that helped to boot the entire sector as well as lower for longer rates. >> absolutely. about rates and also about the inventories and when you look at the underproduction, a lot of reasons, look at the back orders that they got that they reported, pretty incredible some of the pricing power as well.

kb homes came out with very positive news as well and look at masako hitting 52-week highs. home depot is actually in the xhb. you look across and that's the one area where you can look to and say involved with the home. whether that's a tjx because of, you know, the maxxinistas and home goods, that's been the strength so far as we've watched that rally. >> do you like that area, karen? >> kind of intrigued. multi-year basis, a much slower return to we're not anywhere close so i -- >> is home depot too expense any of your mind? >> to me, great company though. >> you have this environment where, first of all, private investment in people's homes will outpace gdp, the one place, where if they own a home, mean they can do what a lot of people can't which is afford owning a home. contracting housing stock and aging housing stock. this is something where you really have supply and demand forces working for you. sherwin williams, home depot,

lowe's, these guys rex pifns and should trade expense itch. household formation isn't picking up the way it should be and this is one of the best ways to play it so i stay in the trades. >> seasonably strong period. spring planting season, right, when you paint and plant. >> right. >> for the home improvement trade, yes, absolutely. >> i would pressure wash first, clean off the winter, put your boots on, get the pressure washer on. >> come on, tim, who are you talking to? >> that's what i do. >> you were in itv actually. >> short itv so i'll take the fast fire on that one. although i would not be necessarily buying into it because what's interesting is these reports don't square with the bigger picture stuff that we're seeing where you're seeing, you know, drops in home prices and you're seeing a home builder confidence not as good as we think it would be and when you look at the coast you're starting to see soft of the softening in that market so it's not necessarily a place where i want to cover short and be right back into, be back on the long side. >> still ahead, markets may be in rally mode but our traders

have four undercover bargain stocks that could be on the verge of bringing you big profits. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. >> buffet premium. >> as if. >> you've got that right, alicia, and we'll tell you what has one firm saying it's never been cheaper to buy buffet right now. the analyst who says berkshire is a safe bet with or without the oracle of omaha. >> louie, i think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship. >> easy there, bogart because although it looks like apple is looking like it's on the verge of breaking out of a bear market, the rally could be about to come to a screeching halt. we'll tell you what has some traders so scared when "fast money" returns.

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>> thanks for having me. >> is it an average? >> it's trading right around a market multiple. that's about as cheap as it's ever gotten and it's been coming down over the last call it five to ten years at relative pe and also at the price to book multiple and one to three times per book and well below its historical averages as well. >> is that exposure to certain sectors. there's a story that warren buffett bought more wells fargo putting it into the category of the largest shareholders of wells fargo? >> if you look at a property casualty area, most pnc companies are trading near all-time high valuation and it's a little bit different from that perspective. >> you also say there is no wanch buffet premium anymore. what was the premium before and why is it out of the stock. >> i think it's significantly diminished, and i think one of

the reasons is going back to that, you know, relative pe argument. trading in line with the market put pal right now and berkshire hathaway is a company that consistently has an earnings growth that's better than the market, where's the premium for buffet right now? >> it's karen. let me ask you a question. on the growth though, the large numbers, it's very hard for them to try to do the elephant hunting acquisitions that have been part of their history. is that game over for them? >> no, that's not over for them, and this is one of the great things about buffet and berkshire hathaway. they have got the structural advantages of a permanent capital base and great cash generation and these great industry leading businesses that generate all of these returns and enable them to re-vist in hair business and make acquisitions like precision cash parks and then ultimately let's them grow earnings faster than the s&p 500. >> brian, tim seymour. to that point we're in an environment where we're very worried about the financials and returns at least for insurance

companies and their ability, i don't know that we're talking about their ability to match liabilities but it's not the same environment where these cash flows and where the assets will be earning that premium. is that fair? >> well, i mean, if we're talking about property casualty insurance companies it's a little bit different business model here. it's more of a liability intensive business rather than an asset intensive business, but clearly with berkshire hathaway you've got the big investment portfolio with the common stock portfolio. does have a fair amount of financials and flat here to date and core 15 in average equity investments and ubs analysts and looking at other analysts they are expecting earnings growth out of these things and i expect you see some positive performance. >> we'll leave it there. thanks a lot for joining us. >> brian bear mitt over at ubs. if you don't like the financials, don't like the financials of that you don't

like bethaway. >> if you want to buy it on the valuation you need the same time frame that warren buffett has which is forever but let's say it's 25 to 50 years or you're buying it for your grandkids or what might be your grandkids at some point in time and besides that, to be in the financials, also long a whole bunch of derivatives and a whole bunch of puts i'm not sure that's where i want to be. >> pete? >> i tend to go with buffet like everybody on the desk does but it's all about time frame and i have a much shorter time frame and even on some. holds that i have they are extremely short relative to buffet on the ones that i hold for years. he's talking about literally decades. >> let's talk about what you guys think are some undervalued stocks out there. tim? >> tough to find value out there. i think there's actually value in emerge marks and not all of this. i think korea, ewy, samsung is

part of it. it's been something that's been undervalued and that as a tailwind, too, and we get back to the dollar but if you're looking for trades that to me are not yesterday's trades and the next 6 to 12 months, korea, take a look. >> pete? >> i like lockheed martin for a lot of different reasons. yesterday when we were talking about buybacks, they are consistently buying back shares. the last ten years they have shrunk their count by 3% and also when you consider what's going on in the world today and including last week the unfortunate issues with isis and whatever, the brussels thing, i don't think that's going toy away any time soon, and the orders from the government aren't going away as fast as people think either, just about a month ago they paid 1.8 billion to lockheed for missiles, so, i mean, there's always kinds of reasons why i think this company not only near its high, extends through the high and trades around 16, 17 multiple. >> chairwoman? >> yes. >> a name you've heard of, google, no longer called that, but even with it today was a

great day for google but longer term there's a lot of room to run here. they have got a great core business and tremendous cash generation. we've seen that. great balance sheet a we've seen financial discipline that wasn't there before and getting rid of the robotics and you've got ruth out there and maybe will see some capital allocation different than in the past which is different nothing. no capital allocation and their business is fantastic. >> what's the music that we hear. >> that's ac/dc "dirty deeds" done dirt cheap. >> not sure we're talking about the cheapness. >> oh, okay. >> talk about buying stock here. b.k., what's your pick? >> boston back to the dividend play and it can be verizon and look at most of the telecoms? in this environment it should trade above a market multiple and 4% dividend yield and it has had a rip since the lows in

february so i'll probably be -- feel more comfortable buying on a pullback but that's a place that you can be. >> up next, i hear it now. one of the fastest growing stocks in america is very quietly on pace for its longest winning streak since early september. the name and whether there's still time to get in. plus, grab your yoga pants, tim. >> i'll be right back. >> is out with earnings tomorrow and we'll tell you why traders are expecting more than a 10% move in the stock between now and friday. much more fast right after this. by debating our research to find the best investments. by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. and by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on long-term value. we actively manage with expertise and conviction. so you can invest with more certainty. mfs. that's the power of active management.

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welcome back to "fast money." the tow and s&p 500 closing at the highest levels of the year after a doifsh speech from fed chair janet yellen. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." shares of lululemon have been on a run this year, up 15%, but could the good times be over for the stock or is it heading higher? why traders are expecting a huge

move tomorrow? plus, check out restoration hardware shares. they are actually up by just about a percent after its earnings report. we get the latest from the report later on this afternoon. first, we start off with big-cap tech stocks leaving the market as the nasdaq posted its best session since march 1 s&p breaking it all down is a man always leading the pack. cnbc's dom chu. hey, dom. >> you know, i'm just going to come back every day, melissa, for the sweet words that you utter every single time. hardly a pack leader but we want to talk about some of the stocks that are leading the pack here. we want to focus specifically on the nasdaq, right, because it's outperformed the s&p 500 ever since the february 11 lows that we saw on the overall stock market, what some called the dimon bottom when jamie dimon bought a whole bunchch his own stock. compared to the s&p, a slight outperformance, about a percent during the time frame and if you take a look at the pack leaders here, it tends to be large-cap technology stocks. let's focus on a few in

particular. four specifically that have been outpacing the overall market. take a look at amazon.com, one of the top per forming stocks and saw a bit of a rough ride early on in this year and now it's up 17% since those lows and apple also up about 15% since those lows. you get a semiconductor company with intel up about 14% and then facebook, the world's biggest social media company, up by about 13% as well. if you take all of those gains and put market caps on them and you're talking around about 180 billion of market cap gains just in the four stocks during that to imperiod. it's huge and remember, those four stocks make up a quarter of the overalnas damage 100 larger cap nasdaq index, so if you take a lock overall at some of the pack leaders, some are worth paying attention to only because they have contributed so much to the performance. the question becomes, melissa,

whether the mega cap tech stocks can keep leading the pack. back over to you guys. >> thanks, dom. speaking of apple, it's officially out of a bear market but our next guest says don't buy the hype. breaking it down at the smart board. what are we looking at in the. >> when we look at ale, the big problem we can see in the longer trend chart the trend line broke about a year ago. one attempt last fall to rally back and failed at 200 and we're now back into the 110, 111 neighborhood. i think this is the area where we start to back away from this movement 200 day moving average is downward sloping and we're still downtrend and looking to back away from strength here and when we look at other names in tech and it's a group we like we would much rather own facebook, making new absolute against the s&p our target here, 130, and when we lock at microsoft, decisive breakout last october. it did not make new lows in

january and february where the rest of the market was. we think this is poised higher, 65 is our neck there and when we look at them, apple, facebook, microsoft, all together, these are our two leaders. this is apple down here. we want to own leadership in this market. microsoft and facebook are leadership. we don't i think that apple fits that description. >> if you overlay, most people don't just use technicals, overlay with the fundamental picture, karen. already had an in between iphone where we don't get any cat lifts really until the fall and other you have a technical pattern that indicates apple will have trouble. are you worried about that? >> i worry about the opaque funtals so that the chart doesn't show it all. the reason i liked it it's still in place and the valuation is attractive here, but i think we need to wait until seven to get an update. >> what's encouraging about the tech calles and facebook, for example, and microsoft is these are two companies, certainly in

facebook's case, the people are willing to pie a high growth multiple for a company that's been delivering and even through the worst of times and we question we know that growth is all the market really bought this year so at least it was a very narrow market and those couple of stocks, it's nice to see that the technicals are supporting. sure, you should take a breath. a look for value, but if we loved facebook two months ago we should love it right now and that business was the same business that was growing. >> mr. bear. >> yeah. >> does microsoft fall into the category of anible tell. >> yes. >> absolutely. microsoft does. you get a nice dividend there. they are kind of a resurging with their new products out there, so, yeah, mflt falls into that. i would say, you know, if you want to kind of be market neutral, buy microsoft and sell facebook because if the market track the f.a.n.g. stocks get decimat decimated. >> you have a bewildered look on your face. >> facebook pulled back but everything pulled back. you look around.

almost everything slirtly pulled back. facebook bounced back very quickly and the reason that it did so much when you look at it, right near 52-week highs. part of that is the pipeline. not just in bye tech. vr, last night we were talking about that, so you've got that the the stride that they have made with instagram and then look across at some of the other areas. they have done such a magnificent job of acquisition that actually has worked out for them. doesn't always for everybody, and i think that the other thing i tell you is microsoft, ardella has been amazing since he took over at microsoft. >> i can't disagree with the fundamentals behind it and done a fantastic job on facebook and i've paired it off, when we get a pullback, the f.a.n.g. stocks got absolutely killed that might and i have the dividend to kosher my position. we started the show talking about positioning, size, how to trade something, that's how you do it. that's how you protect yourself

in an environment like this where you can wake up tomorrow and the market is up 100, down 100. >> the f. a n.g. stocks have pulled back a lot but in today's session netflix is at a two-month high. >> you don't like it? >> that's probably of the f.a.n.g.s i'm not chowing on. this is a ridiculous multiple and a lot of competition. facebook and netflix are ales and originals in terms of their ability to control their destiny. i would say netflix is vulnerable. >> do you like netflix? >> i understand everything tim is saying. the only pushback would i have and disagree is i still look at international expansion potential that they have got and still something that you can hang your hat on. 100% right, getting your hand around the valuation, a potential problem for netflix. >> lululemon could be on track for a huge 10% move. we'll explain why after the break. plus, on this dai in 1995,

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>> welcome back to "fast money." an earnings report on restoration hardware. let's get to the courtney reagan. >> hi, melissa. a month after reporting preliminary results restoration hardware finalized its revenue and guide first-quarter earnings to well below 6%, well below the 16 cents and they expect the first-quarter revenue to come in the range of 242 to 256 million, again, shy of consensus. restoration hardware says it's pleased with the initial adoption of its two-week-old annual gray card program and higher than normal cancellation rates and one-time costs due to production and shipping delays for the new modern product line will pressuring the first quarter revenue and vendors won't catch up to demand until the end of the second quarter and ceo gary freedman says there's continued underperformance in regions impacted by currency fluktations

pointing to texas, mime and canada specifically. and again he reiterates that it can quickly become a modern brand and the experienced centers continuesing to part of the long-term growth strategy. shares though are again under pressure as analysts are did i jefgt and going back and forth on whether or not all of this is good or bad going forward. >> when the stock market wasn't doing well it cited market volatility as a reason why people were backing off from orders, et cetera and the market has been up by february 11 since a lot. any commentary on why they have benefited. >> the ceo specifically pointed out again today in the video presentation that january is its biggest month for furniture organized, and that's often true for some of these players. january is a big month and january is the big month where we saw the biggest volatility and he did specifically call out the january month. we're past that and like you mentioned volatility has

certainly come back down but he didn't say that it's gotten better in that respect and keeps pointing out the energy prices and certain areas as well as the currency fluctuations. a lot of fingerpointing going on. >> what do you make of this business? sounds like a lot of excuses? >> a lot of excuses? >> the balance sheet has been slowly deteriorating. it's not a disaster at all but it's not headed the right way. sort of peeling to look at a stock down 60% and think maybe it's cheap here. it's lower. i don't think it's necessarily cheap and it's still elevated. >> yeah. >> you've got to think 106 to 40 doesn't get them what they thought would be enough to get them out of the trade and i wonder what they are looking for. >> i think there's a ton of bad news in this stock and i look at it and the reason why i like

lowe's and home depot and kind of like restoration hardware even though it's a slightly different customer base. store comps will be 4.5% and the numbers start to, one, they have baked in a lot of bad news and, two, we start to have visibility and 15 times relative to other guys in the space that's very cheap and something worth taking a look at in. >> you in the trade? >> no, it's very cheap and if january is the biggest month, there's no reason to rush into the trade. that basically when courtney said that i didn't realize it's that big but that's what everybody is pointing to and what the ceo is pointing to. no reason to jump on this. old expression on the floor. bottom picking and you get a handful of something. >> that's not what you'll get here. >> that's what you're getting here. >> 106 in november and here we are at 39 and i don't think you need to jump into this yet. they have to show that they can turn this boat. >> let's take a look at lululemon. the stock up nearly 17% in 2016. traders expecting bigger moves

ahead. mike here with the action. hey, mike. >> saw five times the daily action and that's probably not surprising because this stock has a real history of moving, moving an average of about 10% on earnings and that's approximately what the options markets are currently implying. the beginning. day some of the bets were to the downside and maybe people hedging some of the gins and by the end of the day the tenor turned decidedly positive and the most active options were the weekly 67 calls. this stock also represents my wife's favorite store, so she's a big bull on the stock as well. >> i think brian kelly loves that store as well, too. >> only -- only for the short, short, short shorts, that's a tough visual. >> anyway, a trade, is there one? >> he said it. >> okay. >> the 67 calls, paying 60 cents for, the bet that will be up 10% by the end of the week.

>> mike chouw and check out show on friday at 5:30, can you not unsee things. want to be a millionaire in under 30 minutes, three things you should be doing with your money right after the break. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. it begins from the the second we're born.er. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day.

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get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. an historic day on wall street as trade, finally got to take home their dow 10,000 baseball caps. >> when the dow closed above 10,000 for the very first time exactly 17 years ago. since then the dow has soared 77%, despite the dotcom bust and the financial crisis. cnbc.com finance editor jeff cox has covered the market all through it and is co-author of the new book "the 30-minute millionaire, the smart way to achieving financial seconds." joins us here on set. takes only 30 minutes. >> that's amazing. >> look, this is not a get rich quick scheme but a get rich smart. we want people to spend less time on their investments and this is geared towards the

retail investor. the 30-minute hook is 30 minutes a week. we think that people should not spend more than 30 minutes a week on their portfolios. we don't want retail investors to be out pick stocks and we want them to be like all the folks gathered here at the time who do it full time and are in do you know with those kinds of things. my biggest concern watching the market has been just the short-termism of investors, and they have reacted to events too easily to things that really don't matter in terms of their long-term goals so we want to change that focus and let the stock pick into the pros and let theful of management to the investor. >> the pros have not delivered if you take a look at track report of active valve managers and 1 in 5 outperform and that's terrible, so who do we trust? >> you know, there are three things in life that are certain, death, taxes and that this is

going to be the year of the stock picker, never happens and as far as active funds go. we like to see investors have a mix. mostly index funds with a little bit of allocation towards active funds and basically sitting to their knitting and keeping an eye on the ball but there are good managers. don't want to despairage every manager if there's one. >> got just that one so your odds of doing that aren't one but the rewards are if you can find the managers. >> it sounds like etfs are the way to go for the vast majority. >> my question would be do you put in the book anything about, hey, really know the stocks that you are -- if you're going individual, really know those specific companies. >> i think you should know your investments completely and i don't want to discourage people

from getting investigations and they say, wait, you work for cnbc and you're telling them to spend less time on their portfolio. >> that's not what it's about. get the information that you can but in terms of making your decisions, make your decisions long term but stay informed and stay on top of things and watch "fast money" and please watch cnbc and just keep your -- keep your perspective in the long term. >> all right. jeff, thank you so much for coming back. jeff's seabrook "the 30-minute millionaire" and i feel like there should be companion book of 15 minutes of active trading. >> brian is talking about time horizons for trading and i think ultimately one of the things about the last six or seven years in this bull market very difficult to outperform that and i think we're seeing on this show that markets will behave differently for the next six years and to volk picking and actually passive involvements they have outperformed. i will say i think it's going to

be a difficult next six years. >> not everybody here on the set is short termisms. you've been in trades for a long time. you do your homework and you're a value investor and you're in it for the long run. >> that's the plan. >> sometimes it works. >> all right. up next, the final trade. stay tuned. this just got interesting. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension,

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time for definitely fast but not least. a pro surfer got clipped by a dolphin. one bold dolphin dropping in a surfer's weave. the cheeky dolphin interrupting the surfer and showing off his gnarly skills. >> dude. >> dude. time for the final trade. around the horn. >> that was right, brother. yo, bro, ewy, man, it's cool. >> karen? >> i liked it during the undervalued berkshire segment and it hasn't moved at all so alphabet. still like it. >> brian kell? >> little known fact, tim actually has a dolphin tramp stamp. and a lot of people don't see it but he really loves dolphins. >> and right below my very, very, very tight lululemon shorts. >> silver, still like that, slv. >> pete?

my mission is simp -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. mob jot is to entertain and teach you. call me or tweet me. closed watchers of "mad money" know i'm not a chartist, but i play one on tv weekly.