tv Mad Money CNBC March 29, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
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my mission is simp -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. mob jot is to entertain and teach you. call me or tweet me. closed watchers of "mad money" know i'm not a chartist, but i play one on tv weekly. given that i base all of my work
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on fundamental factors and not the shape of their charts, the offthe charts segment is antithey cal to my stock-picking methods. i know from your feedback that you're interested in this analysis, and it's proven itself time and time again to get a lot of people involved at the right level, say. not for a minute, as i explain in "get rich carefully" where i devote a whole chap, have i become a chartist myself. i teach about interest, studying the fundamentals, and i overlaw femme. theys on don't even care what the company does. i wonder if heck do their jobs with the company's names blacked out. in fact, i'm sure they could. some of them hate the distraction of knowing much at all about a company for fear it would bias them against the stock's chart. can you imagine? i've peck proficient at charting, but i still rely on
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the individual work of professional technicians, to learn techniques that i can in turn teach. that's why tonight i am picking the best of the best charts of some of the best technicians, the patterns that become reliability where i'm pretty astonished how accurate they can be, so i guess you have to call me a long-term believer. that's why i've started almost every saturday morning reading the st. & poor's trendline daily action charts, formerly on paper, now on electronics distribution, and i match those charts with the patterns i have learned, and go over the research available, and they often become segments on the show you see later in the week. why do the charts work? people always want to know that. first you want to the consider them as footprints at the scene of a crime. they trace out what big money managers might be doing. these portfolio chieftains at
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large funds often know more than others including you and me. the charts of where the money go put together klees that these big boys leave. second reason to care, there a remarkable self-fulfilling nature of charting stocks. so many professionals look and take them to heart that they will simply avoid stocks, and find stocks to own. charts with impressive positive moves at the past. don't i know it? when i work with karen cramer, a veteran chartist, she would look at them each morning seeking ones with potential breakouts and breakdowns, and research on ones to get a handle on what might be going on. we got some of the best ideas from the brainstorming sessions, a true and -- and the fundamentals to produce excellent short and long-term results. all of charting technical analysis starts not just with the pictures of individual stocks, but also what are known
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as the internals, internals. patterns about stocks in the aggregate that give you clues of the direction of the entire stock market. for years now ever since the great recession that showed the inherent weekend in our system, the so-called systemic risk there's been skepticism about any advancement of stocks. i know each rally creates really a worrisome set of risks. i know that many of you fear that coming at a level that will turn out to be too late, too high, and you will lose money either way. >> sell sell sell. >> through technical analysis including analyzing indicators to determine the overall direction of the market, more important than ever since so many stocks are influenced by the futures. fess and the charts of the bigger averages to create comparisons that elucidate and illuminate conclusion about true market strength. they're looking for what is
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known as confirmation of a move to detect its legitimacy. i think confirmations of incredibly important, to the safety of a move. they need to be explained closely. the most important and obvious confirmation, let's say the dow jones industrial average hits a new high. historically that high will not be sustainable unless the dow jones transportation index hit a high, or breakout -- the dow jones transportation index is a measure of commerce tracking trains, planes, truck, a forwarding, isn't that a good gauge? if both of industrials and transports hit the new highs, i on which tell you that the move is legitimate and it can be trusted. it is real. this is some of the oldest technical work. created the eupon muss dow theory. you oen here at the top of the show that i like how the transports are acting. that's because i'm trying to see
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if the move has bless -- the banking index is port, the s.o.x. and rth, the all-important etf that encompasses the retailers. i like to see them move in sync, you get the indices rolling higher, you have to put the maximum amount of chips on the table, but boy, is the inverse true. if we get a move, a move up without confirmation from the majority of these indices, the whole rally could be a fakeout and can't be trusted. the classic example if you go back to the move up to record highs before the great recession, you won't notice something pretty incredible if you go back and study it. you will notice there was almost no participation among the financials, it is retailers or the techs. technical analysis got you out of that market before it was too late, did much better than the fundamentals. what are the other internals?
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i look at the advances in declines to figure out whether the rally is too concentrated. a lot of participation by many different groups. i also look at the new high and low ratio. it isn't easy to get on the new high list. second the sector has to be strong. third largest forces, the federal reserve, politics have been toy aligned to ma some stocks successful enough to little on that new list. that high list is rarefied territory. you run the gauntlet, you have a good stock. on any pullback that's market related. if there are a lot of stocks on the new high list, that's actually a terrific sign. so here is the bottom line. you make not be a technician, and you need to know how to read the internals to verify a real move or a phony one. stay tuned and we'll go over a whole host of predictive patterns, not just on the off the charts tuesday, but in stock
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selection every single day. jim in michigan, jim? >> caller: hi, how are you? and thanks to taking my call. thrilled that you called. what's up? >> caller: i've got a question for you. in the segment you were talking about secular stocks. could you define for me once again what are secular stocks? and maybe give he an xarm or two? >> certainly. this is a very important issue. this term gets thrown around. secular means a secular growth stock is something that does not need the gross domestic product of the world to increase in order for it to beat the numbers. some of the classic secular grower stocks would be some of the biotechs, some of the retailers that have terrific growth, gary in california. gary? >> caller: mr. cramer, boo-yah. >> boo-yah, gary. >> caller: this is gar from in california. my question is regarding dividends in a down market, sir.
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if you're accumulating dividends on a number of stocks as sudden suggest, is it better to reinvest in a down market, or take the money as cash and then possibly reinvest that in other opportunities? >> see, we don't know when a down phase is going to end. we know the power of compounding is an amazing thing, so we're going to still always on the show. i know it sounds pedestrian, but we're always going to opt in favor of reinvestment, because fortunes have been made through the power of compounding. you've got to go with that regards of the near-term consequences, because i'm thinking long term for you. fundamentals are key, but technicals matter, too. tonight i'm bringing into the world of maermind chartists, so you can see the whole picture on mad tonight we know the charts are important, but what technical it tools can help you detect floors and ceilings.
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and mixing patterns isn't only for fashion. i'm highlighting the patterns worth banking on when it comes to investing. why don't you stick with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mails to madmoney@cnbc.com, or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss manage? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. [dad] i wear a dozen different hats doing small gigs,side gigs...gig gigs. quickbooks self-employed helps me get ready for tax time. to separate expenses,i just swipe. it's one hat i don't mind wearing.
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you could save up to $509 call today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ tonight we are offering the best of the best of technical analysis. a one-stop shop of everything you need to know to augment your invests with some of the best chartists in the land. let's work on something that's been the province of the best,
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spotting bottoms for best entry points and examining ceilings for the best places to exit or sell. when you are pick individual stocks you are betting from the moment you byrum them that they're going to go higher. i know, how much do you do solid fundamental work and try to figure out whether it's the right decision to pull the trigger? because your homework is finished, and it turns out to be terrible and you're buying oblivious to the stock. maybe it's not the right moment. after all the work i've done, i now say you're being shortsighted after you've done all that homework. it's not just the right time since you've done the homework. in fact, you like as part of the homework. get that in your head. get it ingrained into your thinking. sometimes finding bottoms can be incredibly lucrative. let's go dot bottom of 2009. i had a sense that declines have
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velocity was lessening. based on his innate feeling. i notice that my friend doug cass that writing with me, that's part of the street con family, sometimes known as an aggressive bear, turned absolutely positive, saying we were in a generational bottom. but i was still skittish about picking any individual stock to recommend to you, so i was looking for a situation that seemed about as bulletproof as i could find. i came up with at&t, the phone company, had so much going for it. you have to go way back, but including a smashing roll-out of the iphone, as at&t took business from the apple the competitors. the yield was much higher than about any stock in the dow. still, though, the stock kept plunging every time i thought it might have firm footing, in other words i had done my research, and no, no, check the
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chart. i waited for a few days when the stock seemed to stabilized, and thought that at last of -- >> and it's best to check with the chartists. i actually brought in four, four chartists. amazingly they all agreed that it was a strong foundation and definitely worth considering worth a investment, so take a look at what attracted him. take a look at this chart. first, all four technicians agree that at&t established what is known as a climax low at it 1, back in the tsunami of selling that was this period, okay? you just have to understand we are at one of these moments that was just so hideous. you can see the big lift, big lift in stock, and then well -- i don't want to give away the story. that's where lots of sellers capitulated, but buyers had started to step up to create a base, or floor, with the stock at that level. they arrived at that judgment
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where by the sum of all the transactions had expanded to a level far in examine es of a normal period's trading. boom, that's a sign that the sellers had exhausted themselves, the volume levels showed that most of the big portfolio managers wanted out of the stock. they had fled it by now. at the same time buyers step up to meet the supply with a concomitant level of demand. until you got the climb max there were so many sellers than buyers. as long as they're dumping, no base can form, a buy time to buy. a climb max is the sign that those potential sellers who had been holding for some time are finally giving up en masse. remember, technicians don't care why that might be the case. when they see the volume gets larger, expanse, that means at last the stock has found the floor. it's safe.
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that's where the buyers are at last equal to the sellers in their power to determine the direction of the stock. that's a form of equilibrium form that's the safety, but how about this? that's going to happen when a stock takes out resistance overhead, okay? to examine the possibilities of a stock the technicians don't just look at the closing price and the graph that price against the previous days or weeks close, they don't just look and say that looks good or bad, that's not helpful, because it doesn't yield a true picture instead they use what's known as a moving average. a moving average is formed by taking the closing prices of a stock over a period of time, and then adding those prices up, dividing the prices by the days in a particular measured period. i'm breaking it down. for example, you can measure a moving average over a ten-day period by adding up ten days of closing prices, plotting the number on a graph. each subsequent day you drop off the earlier price to get the new
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accept. the four technicians i check in for at&t, they use a longer-view. they notice that even though at&t had certainly found a floor at the $21 left, the stock had repeatedly bounced off of, it kept failing, means it couldn't get through, failing to move up above the 200-day moving average. they had all done the same amount of work. that created what looked to be a ceiling. so the ceiling, the 200-day moving average. there's nothing you can do. they felt that every time it got there, the stock was, then it scrapped through the ceiling of resistance, and that's the 200-day moving average. the old roof became a new floor. here's the new floor. every time it went above the new roof, it created the possibility
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of a new floor, and the stock would come back and hold, as they recognized the stock didn't find that newfound base. in other words, it didn't go back to that climb max low. it held. looking at the beautiful bottoming that we see here with att, it now seems like child's play. of course it was done going down, yet at that moment it was anything but easy because at the same time the analysts were saying the bottom was in. the fundamental analysts were scared out of their wits. not one was valuable to me. they were al scared to death here. some were worried about pension obligations, something that was way, way wrong, but it scared the heck out of me. that basings that floor gave the stock a launching pad to launch off. so here's the bottom light. when you see this reliability pattern as attdemonstrated, you have to use the discipline that
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we like to match the relevant strength of an individual stock to something else, and we pusher the price action historically. that's a sign of a pending move, programs a momentum switch, for relatively strength chart, i obvious tun to -- and we hear about it all the time. over, both use short ee eer per of time. they're looking for any pattern that reverses the action, because that's a sign that a breakout or breakdown might be upon us. they love strong relative strength, but also like the time they're guys after pullbacks get that better entry point.
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they tend to snap back. the inversion can be true, to. it can fall so far so fast, because it's technically oversold. we see these patterns constantly. these are terrific action points, people. if you are debating buys a stock after you've down the ference, i usually tell you to wait to a pullback. that's buy line and collins have done enough work to know that they overshoot and reairs the moves. retracement isn't necessarily negative. charting, though is tricky. some stocks are so strong that they break through all the ceilings of all the significant traditional measurement and stay overbought, defying the historical patterns that trap
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them within the bands of extremes. they deny -- the old equilibrium line and can't be contained by any of the ceilings that you usually bump into and come crashing down from. when you spot these highly unusual moves, you may have to strap yourself in to get a real moon shot. this is what i mean. this is rare, but when it happens, it's big money. we saw is occur in july of 2009, as dan fitzpatrick pointed out to me. the summer the stock of las vegas sands, one of the largest casino companies with an important business in macau had been -- falling every time it hit, boom boom boom. you know, just not working. okay? but when the bulls finally broke out of the corral, there was no stopping them. that's a very rare pattern. you see this thing if it injures
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stayed overbought, which told you good things were going to be ahead. it never retreated, as you would have expected. buyer wouldn't quit despite the stock being overbought. that's a sign the stronger kind, a positive move in the book, might be taking place. at any given time you expect a pullback, but now the gigantic long-term overbought. it proceeded to go from $10 to $48, pretty much in a straight line with no substantive pullback. an overbought condition is a golden opportunity for a huge move. remember, i like to marry the fundamentals with the chart, so i'm not too dependent on the pictorials, but what was happening? you know what was going on right then? the chief locus content from being vegas to macau, it changed
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them into an international powerhouse that might have been named macau sands. they were still dazed that we had such a horrendous decline to begin with. they weren't thinks about macau here the chartists were thinks buyers were lurking. we often say that volume is a lie detector, okay, telling us whether a move is for real or not whether there's a small move that technicians ignore it, and there's a small move on heavy volume the chartists drill down laser-like to see if it's a precursor to something bigger. chartists are at all times looking for a big accumulations, or distribution. that's a synonym for selling of a stock. that could telegraph a big decline. they measure these movements by something called an accumulation distribution line. when the calculation is arcane, involving -- i know it is,
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charting of whether a stock closing higher on greater volume or versus lower on low volume, any brokerage house will -- i care passionately about it. it can go against the conventional grain. they go against the fundamentals sometimes and sometimes they're right. we saw them being right in monsanto in july of 2012. this was an unbelievable one that i completely got wrong. thank heavens for the chart. i didn't care for the stock at the time. i didn't like gmos, i was kind of biased. tim collins saw it another way. he set that line showed that el you have low lines, and then on heavy volume on the up days. that's a sure sign that more money was flowing in than out. collins noted such a consistent persistent accumulation or buying pattern versus the distribution or selling pattern convinced him that large funds were building positions to enon the stock long term.
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not to rent it for a quick move. it turns out that what i didn't see, what i was so confused about was that monsanto's stock had started to be correlated with the price of corn, which was going higher back then because of the newfound demand for ethanol. i was far too concerned about near-tern earnings armed worried about a shortfall and wasn't thinking big picture, but the chart showed you big picture. the work of collins showed you not to fear. he was dead right. in a stock that i would have kept you out of turned out to be a big winner which corn shot up, taking monsanto's stock and its earnings up with it. the big boys knew the relationship. you were ability to piggyback off the research but using collins ease worth, as depicted by the accommodation distribution line. i got smoked. he sawed it. bottom line, we need to look at lots of different indicators.
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oversold levels, and to those of us stuck trying to spot changes in the levels. powerful moves can and often do elude those only focused on the underlying companies and not the action of the stocks themselves. let's go to dan in illinois, please. dan? >> caller: cramer, thank you for demystifying the market and helping make it accessible. >> that's what i want. i want everybody to understand their money. that's my goal. how can i help? >> thank you. i'm wonder if i start with a small position in a stock, a company i like, and the stock keeps going up, the most it comes down is maybe 2%, 2.5%, how do i get a more sizable stake. >> my discipline says you missed it. my discipline will cut off the down side, which is far more important. if you bought a position and it
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kept going higher and you didn't get any more it's a trade and you've got to day it. i know people don't want to hear that. i did show you for years and years mo my charitable trust, i have doone the work, it almost always is a mistake. chartists use all kind of indicators, that helps them stay ahead, and now you are, too. head & shoulders, i'm telling you how it can help you make some money. and are technicians fundamentalists? you won't want to miss my take. and a burning question? i'm taking your tweets. go ahead and tweet m my @jimcramer, #madtweets, and i might answer your question on air. stick with cramer.
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we've learned a lot tonight about the key terms of technical analysis. now let's look at some of the individual charts that many of you find fascinating, even as some of the patterns, they almost sound silly, as if they're mimicking letter or geometric shapes or even body parts. i learned not to ignore one of
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the most simple by by far the most reliable patterns there, the dreaded head & shoulders patterns. >> the house of pain. >> my charitable trust ultimately took a giant bath in red ink ball ill-informed on could i say maybe early buy? i like to to do me a culpas on the show. more in propry tire forms of alum news, when it announced it would split into two separate companies. take a look at alcoa. it had a healthy run for the winter of 2010. not long no reason i could discern. then it quickly reversed and
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went right back to 17, then up to 18 on the eve of the quarterly report. i the thought the quarter was ace nounced beating both the top and bottom, most of the time that's all you can ask for. what worried me, though, is after initial positive reaction, the stock dropped down to 16. 16 and change on the news of that better than expected quarter. a few days later, there we go, it was back to 17, i felt almost vindicated. c'mon, ready to go back and make the challenge, so i went and bought more. could i have been more wrong? i don't think so. that 17 to $15 dive represented on the chart as point a and b, then followed the run to c, 18, back to 16, d, finally 17, e, you know what that is? that's a perfect head and shoulders pattern. yeah, just like a human's head.
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that's the most frightening pattern in the entire chart book and alcoa traced it out just when i thought we were out of the woods. what was happening during that pattern plan? europe and china began their slowdown, and he could control his own company, but not the price of the commodity itself. over the course of the next few years, kleinfeld reinvehemented alcoa, but only after the completion of the head-and-shoulders pattern. remember, again, mea culpa. one of the things i admire about technicians is their intellectual consistency if a pattern signals trouble, an inverse signals the opposite. at the beginning of january 2013, people were running to the classic foot and drug stocks, and they were headed towards the cyclicals. united technologies, you know,
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that kind of rotation is usually the death nell for stocks. however, tim collins on an off the chart segment said, you know what, jim? you ought to take a hard look at pfizer. it was in a reverse head and shoulders pattern. it would be precisely the kind of company i would shun when the economy is speeding up, but when you look at this chart, you can see that pfizer traced out a left shoulder as it rallied through the month of okay, and declining aggressively. the stock, a then it caught a rally, but a pullback to create the right shoulder the key with this pattern is the neckline, that connects the head to the two shoulders. and tells the technician you're about to witness a big, big, big move. it was at $25.80, and collins
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predicted if it could take out the neckline it could be in for a monster run. headed for the industrials, i was confounded by this bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern. i didn't trust it one bit. it's the king of rotations, i nigh it was a bad stock, but collins said rotations, smo-cations. i thought it was inconceivable. sure enough, he was right, i was wrong it almost instantly jumped 10%. what caused the move? soon after collins flagged it bullish reverse, right here, the reverse head and shoulders pattern, the huge drug company decided to spin off the animal health division. it was a shocker, into a new publicly traded company, in a move that openly created $15 million in value. who knew? the chart did. here's the bottom linepatterns matter. no mart hout confident you might
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we've seen it so often, and i've used it to keep in stocks or i might have been turned off on or shaken out by. take domino's. we were feeling pretty darn greedy when it traded up to the 30s. then it had some dubious sideways action and drifted down on no new news. i hate these situations. why? because i'm paranoid enough to think that something is happens and i don't know about it and others do. when the analysts are iffy and split and the company isn't talking, that's when the technicians are most needed, and so we went to ed marshy, one of our favorites, and asked if the moment it come and gone. when we reached out to him, the stock had begin to drift back up. you know, we want -- telling you to sell. they thought -- maybe we should
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ring the register, take the big gains for the viewers. so tempting right there. huh-uh, in fact poncie told us to do the opposite. that bump up told him that all was well. you see, with that return back up to, say, 36, domino's was tracing a perfect come and handle formation. that's right, a pattern we have found as reliability as head and shoulders in reliability. you caught the beginning of the cup at 36, then aendle slope down to the base of the cup. i was nervous right there. the symptom climbed back to 36, and then a -- a little sidle to 37, 38, and that would be the beginning of a handle that almost always signals a much higher move.
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the handle always goes like that. sure enough, poncie's work nailed it. earnings turned out to be accelerated. it was simply consolidating. this was positive action. domino's right there, what they were doing was embracing technology, the web and cell phone, facebook, eliminate order takers, let customers place orders. we will have left a minimum of a double on the table if it weren't for poncie's guidance. when i was concerned about another one of my favorite stocks, monster bench, i thought it had run out of room. i kept hearing that red bull competition was crimping monster, and that there was the distinct possibility of regulatory intervention in the energy drink business. ed set me straight. check this one out. he said for months the stock of monster had been bouncing off the 100-day average. every time it looked like it was
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going down, it rebounded. look at this, rebound, rebound. monster was tracing at a series of triangles, where you get a flat ceiling of resistance and upward sloping floor. see that? boom, boom, triangle, triangle. it punches right through. he says that anytime you get this pennant formation that are a prelude to what's known as a continuation pattern, you don't have to worry about a stock running on empty, as a matter of fact, you have to buy with both hands every time. it proceeded to jump to 79, confounding the nay sayers who -- you know what ultimately monster tied up with coca-cola, a truly monster of a -- rocked the world. once again, i would have been shaken out of this stock's move if it weren't for poncie and his chart hand holding. there's a lot of different
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variations. for instance, take a look at this chart. big move up, citigroup, everybody hit it on june 2010, where the lows just kept getting higher. this is what's known as a wedge pattern. collins finds it rye liability as the pennant. we've also had tremendous success following the words of carolyn, the fibonacci queen, the fib queen uses ratios found in nature. you've heard of fibonacci patterns. we like the word of carly garner, who uses data to examine when too many hedge funds are leaning the wrong way on a commodity and we have to veer in a different direction. the bottom line -- technicians and analysts can el coexist, and i'll bet you'll make more money if you're blind to one or the other, and certainly to both. "mad money" is back after the break.
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♪ hey, cramerica. you're looking for trends, finding big moves, on twitter, what's trending can also tell you a lot. #mattmoneytweets anyone? first up, we have a feel-good tweet jim cramer for all the good advice thanks to the books and i rye tired at the age of 55, thanks. i want you to continue to own a lot of stocks. you won't get a lot of income from other activities, other bonds, and stocking compound.
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you get that dividend. keep reinviting, here, my 19-year-old son wants to star saving for retirement. do you have any individual? i unfortunately it's boring. just find one with low fees. but once they've put $10,000 aside, then they can focus on individual stocks, them's the rules. i'm not varying them. next a shoutout from -- a tough one -- keep doing what you're doing. stay above the pettiness. periodically i get tired, too and angry and a little feisty, about you what i like is this is my little zone here, right? it's all nfl. you come into my box, you're going to have to be tackled. i'm not looking the other way. next up, at villa marin jay writes -- you want -- before investing in single stocks, okay to invest?
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again, this shows is incorrectly known as some sort of trading show where we don't like index funds. we're an investing show where we demand you be in index funds. sorry for the misinterpretation by you. last but not least, at jack cribner says excited to have found the show at a young age. the guy is a genius with a load of information for free. i only wish my mom and dad were still alive, because then they finally they could say, hey, i told you jimmy. stay with cramer.
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