"fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking "new york times"'s times square, i'm melissa lee. traders tim seymour, karen finerman and brian kelly. where is oil going next? a shocking call you don't want to mix. emerging markets doing something they haven't done in over five years. what that is and what the best opportunities to make money are right now and a major street fight on apple is brewing as the stock surges higher. is it dead money or are new highs in store? traders will take sides but first we start off with market. another big day for stocks and

the dow and s&p closing at new highs for 2016 and what stood out was an outperformance in tech and financials. salesforce, action vision, metlife, bancorp, they lead us higher. what say you? >> i will say this. earnings expectations have been beaten down so much in tech and i say to you if there's any shed of light whatsoever those that have, you know, that are beating have been rewarded by it as far as guidance is concerned. look to guidance. if guidance is better. companies are getting rewarded for that and you'll see that in the performance of names and i look at the semis and they have been beaten down so much. mike ron is a name trading up after hours, a stock that's washed out and i say it's probably taking a look at on the buy side.

>> bar is low for financials. >> terrible on financials, and i think at this point it's worth at least taking notes so i've said a handful of times even in the last few weeks i'm not a buyer for financials because i think they are cheap and not because they are going out of business but because their earnings multiples may be probably farrelltive to where the near term earnings power s.having said all of that, the bond market backed up on yield today because we were in overbought condition on the ten-year. that's a big to do about what financials did today. do i think financials have some room to run? yes. would i be comfortable owning best of breed banks here? absolutely, but to say the banks will revalue in the short run i think is a very difficult call to. say that they are a great investment for a longer term investors absolutely. >> the context is maybe investors are wondering about the valuations for the top performing sectors, telecoms, utilities and consumer staples and are going to the sectors that may have not seen as much appreciation. >> financials, when you say the bar is low, i've been hit by the bar many times hitting the

financials but i do think the bar is low. the stocks i own, citibank, jpmorgan, bank of americas, earlier this year they were hit on the financial turmoil and then hit on oil and then deutsche bank and also on their trading desk. really being hurt. i think that the market improvement should help the trading desk part of it. seen the oil dissipate a little bit. the bar is too late. have to wait what jpmorgan says but i like them here. i don't know if they move up in the short term, but i'm fine just holding them here. >> not for me, no. i mean, listen. look at it, yes, the bar is low so could you get a pop in them. okay, fine, but the operating environment is awful for these guys. seen it time and time again. capital market business not coming back to the levels that we used to think it was. look what happened at block rock. laying off 400 people. not at healthy sign of a healthy industry. a backup in yields today. that will help out the financials a little bit but not enough for me to get involved

in. in fact, i'd be selling them. >> let me ask you a question on that and i think you make a good point. trading vehicles. from a long-term perspective i don't know if i jump in here and make a determination and i look and say they got beaten up so much for their energy exposure. >> and look what happened to oil today. >> did they rebound? >> no. >> i think not. >> so you look at it and say they got beat up for it. they haven't seen the spike up from the standpoint. >> up 10% off the lows of off of jamie's bottom there. had a pretty good rally. >> from the oil exposure to the investor days, absolutely ridiculous. >> again, so people are pricing them, especially the european banks as if their capital adequacy was not there and they had to do capital raises n.deutsche bank's case brian may prove right on a capital race. i don't know. with deutsche bank's balance sheet it's very complicated. i don't think they are going to and i think they will be bailed out at every single turn but the question is the credit contagion something that banks are bearing or is it an earnings impact and i think david is saying they still haven't gotten back that

credit bid and i think that in the short term they are oversold and, yes, with the fed out of play, look what's going on with high yield, and look at the hyg and the junk and the jnk and credit conditions, no question they are tightening. the atlanta fed said the fed has moved 300 on an implied basis. >> a one-two punch. not just the credit conditions but it's also where's the yield curve going? didn't janet yellen saying it's staying flat. that's part of the narrative. >> but they will well capitalized, so much more so in the past. you look at it and say dividends. there could be dividend hikes with some of these banks. returning cash to shareholders that. changes it a little bit so i look at it and say for a trade, definitely buy them. >> buy them as a utility. >> or would you rather buy utilities? >> i'd rather buy utilities because the operating environment is more stable. i don't think the operating environment for u.s. banks -- i never said u.s. banks are going out of business. they have well capitalized. if there's a global credit

contagion they will get hurt, of course, but they should trade at roughly one times books and others trade like that, just like the utility does. the dividends are not high enough for me to say it's a substitute for utilities so i don't see any reason why i need to be in banks right now. it's not a great environment for them. >> oil staging a major reversal as new data showed inventories stayed at the highest level as hedge funds are the most bullish on crude. well robert ray robert. great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> hedge funds are getting more bullish according to the latest cftc data. are you? >> well, we're not. that's actually part of what has us concerned so obviously the price of oil has had a fairly significant move up here over the course of the last six or eight weeks, and i think in the near term, right, you know, what concerns susthat we think a lot of that has really been driven by the dollar, the idea that a

dollar has gone down sort of over the time frame the last six to eight weeks and at the end of the day what you've done suave created a massive short squeeze in the oil market where the net length of the contracts outstanding in the future contracts have gone way up, right, to sort of a record level of almost 365,000 contracts but the real reason for that is because of 200,000 contracts covered on the short side as opposed to actually real length added on the long side so that leaves news a position where we have, melissa, as you indicated, you know, a very long exposure across generically the hedge fund community, right, and the second part of that of what becomes interesting is while the front end of the curve has rallied a lot the back end of the curve hasn't moved a lot. >> sorry, keep going. >> so i think that the net effect of that is that i think as the first quarter numbers come out and we start to hear from the producing community in the april and may time frame

we're going to find out that there's been, you know, sort of almost a shocking but a massive amount of hedging in the 2016 and '17 calendar strips. >> right. >> a lot of the producing community is using this rally, right, as a way to effectively lock in prices and also begin completing a bunch of drilled and incompleted wells. >> isn't that ultimately bullish for oil if a lot of these, especially the ones, the balance sheets most impaired are heading off any free cash flow. production from non-opec, hearing it from the dadsiacs and hearing it from other places around the world. u.s. production is down around 4% year over year. you're getting to a place here and i know you care a lot about macro and the move in the dollar from july of 2014 to where it's gone you have to have a view on the dollar in order to have a negative view on oil. >> to some degree, yes. we're concerned on the margin the dollar has maybe gone a little too far too fast as well so that would be one comment, right. second comment would be that, you know, part of our view here

is short-term, right, has to be distinguished short term versus long term so while i hear and understand the idea that other parts of the world they are starting to see production and volume declines as well, right, what really ultimately drives crude price is the level of inventory so there's a strong degree of correlation historically between periods of time when inventories are drawn and oil prices go up and conversely, right, when oil inventories are building and oil prices tend to go down. the disconcerting part of that is, right, you know, in the very near term, the last sort of six weeks, we've put another 30 million barrels of crude oil in inventory so we're not seeing the structural fundamental dynamics that ultimately drive prices substantially higher, right, so we think this has been more technical than fundamental right now. as we get longer out there in 2017 and '18 we have frankly a more constructive view of the environment and the world. we're just cautious in the relatively near term sort of measured in days, weeks, maybe a

few months, right, as opposed to the longer term structural thesis. >> bottom line it for us, rob, in terms. next phew weeks, months, short term. where does oil head? >> well, i mean, our view would be lower as you go sort of through april and may, you know. we need to take the idea of 25% rates of return at $40 oil in this subset of 4,000 or 5,000 on completed wells off the table so the net effect of the rise in oil prices is that it is now very economic, right, for a lot of these producers, guys like eog and guys like anadarko that have literally thousands of drilled incompleted wells in a they can translate into relatively immediate production to start bring all those barrels to the market, and so the bold case ultimately rests on the idea that the u.s. supply curve does roll over meaningfully and really that's shale, right, between now and year end, and at $40 oil we're just concerned,

dollar issues aside, et cetera, that the drill incompleted inventories are basically going to continue to carry the supply curve longer than people expect. >> rob raped of rr advisors on the "fast" line tonight. oil a good short he says for the next couple of months. >> that's the point i was making last night. i think you can be short oil here. i think, you know, not only is it -- you look at the inventory levels but also seasonally you're at a point where this is a weak period for oil, and if you look at the action in the oil market over the last couple of days. yesterday we had oil down 2%, 3%, right, but even though the dollar was weaker yesterday, so to me that says that there's a non-financial seller in there meaning hedgers, producers hedging. same thing happened today again so it looks to me like producers are probably coming in, hedging these levels. you're going to see production flat line if not go higher. >> that's totally fair. that >> that should cap things and if you hear about some of the supply cuts that could happen.

what happens if there's a cut? i realize probabilities are low and go buy a bridge if you think that's going to happen, at least the prevailing view and i'll sell you one, but i guess the way i look at oil right now, back to what rob was saying. rob knows this better than any of us and as we get out to 2017 if you're an investor right now investing in oxy, chevron, exxon and companies with great balance sheets that can be tactical now that will be here tomorrow and actually will be a lot better when it all gets better, why aren't you making those trades now? >> companies ant cash flow positive until oil is at $45 a bill so you look and say what's the upside in that, in my opinion? i wouldn't buy the equity here at all. be careful being short. the commodities have a little more room to run to the upside only because positioning so negative. people are afraid and fearful. they got their heads blown off on the short side. >> companies are very, very levered balance sheets, right, so the ones that -- >> right. >> take the middle ground and buy ones with much more cash. >> eog, anadarko what, rob

talked about. >> when i look at the oil chart i look back at a much larger time frame, yeah, it's been a huge move in the last six weeks, eight weeks, but my god what an enormous move it's been in, you know, in the year and a half before that, so you'll be able to pick the bottom. i don't know. i -- i would much rather be long than short. >> okay. up next, one of the largest industrial companies in the world is sounding the alarm on the global economy. the name and what it could mean for the broader markets. markets may be in rally mode and one thing could soon send stocks tumbling and later emerging markets seeing their best month in five years, but is it too far to fast. the warning signs that could soon have investors running for the exits. much more "fast money" right after this. became a stay over.

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dead money. >> as we can see in the longer term chart. 2,900-day market is still downward sloping which is still a downtrended a we had ear looking to back away the strength here. >> all right. let's play a little you make the call. who is right, tim? >> i think cowan is and not just because david is sitting next to me. i believe march quarter iphone shipment expectations are down very low. they could surprise. i think the company ultimately on valuation and in terms of the peripheral product base is just fine. i don't need a huge march company. yield and generation. >> and you may be owning it for the calendar fourth quarter. >> right. >> which we'll get results for in a year, right. >> i mean, they -- cowan made the case and simplified the note tremendously and also make the case that for the i'd phone 7 it's going to benefit because the iphone 6 and 6 plus users they reach the point where they

have to upgrade and they have hit that part of the cycle. >> that goes back to why did you buy apple? i'm not all that excited. they are really not innovating, changing the phones here or there so i don't think you're going to get a massive run. what i said about a week ago you get a weekly close about 106 which gets me interested technically and what do we do now? i'll watch it a bit and if we get a pullback and it looks like it's going into an upgrade cycle and i get a little excited about it, then maybe, maybe i might want to buy it. >> you're opening to being bullish. >> i'm billish so i would agree with cowan. the valuation is hardly stretched so i'm comfortable waiting here, you know. the metrics are very attractive. i'm a believer in the iphone 7 and the upgrade cycle v.to wait a few months just for actual the introduction let alone the sales. >> basically you three last night were listening to chris verrone and thinking -- >> we didn't beat him up ney enough.

>> exactly. >> what's he talking about? >> i went back and looked at july 2015, and a note was put and downgraded the stock at 130 bucks a share and the title of the note was "every rose has had a thorn." >> i remember that one. >> great, great poison song. bret michaels. >> look at it now. the premise is really based -- >> put a bandana on him. >> presentation of that fastener had a more broad-based ray than the street is anticipating that will create and drive the upgrade cycle. put $135 target on it and which could prove to be conservative and ultimately this is really an opportunity to get a stock here. it's a shift in the narrative, if you will. if our checks are correct and they ultimately are much earlier in a mass adoption of that technology, you can have an upgrade cycle that can be meaningful. >> chris verrone sitting at home. >> listen. >> market share in indiana. if that comes anywhere close to

what it is in china, 15% to 20%, 15 million iphone units. 49-inch phone and why they did it. did it for the u.s. and really for china and em. india 2%. >> coming up, emerging markets are ripping high and one strategist says don't trust the rally. he'll tell us what has him so fearful and why investors maybe running for the exits. i'm melissa lee, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. meantime, here what else is coming up on "fast." >> troubling signs ahead. >> just when i thought i was out they pull me back in. >> we know, we know, corleone, and we'll tell you why even though stocks may be soaring there's one thing that could soon spoil the rally. >> plus -- >> go ahead. make my day. >> well, harry, that's exactly what tesla is hoping to do when its cheaper model 3 is unveiled tomorrow, but will it be enough to supercharge the stock? much more "fast money" right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." take a look at chairs of medivation soaring after reports of a possible takeout. cnbc's biotech reporter meg tirrell joins us. what's up? >> reporter: medication is up

after hours. i can confirm the company is working with advisors, but they -- what i'm told is they definitively do not want to sell themselves so that's the goal of hiring the advisers for the outcome. you never can tell what somebody might offer in people are interested in buying the company and what i'm told that is not the desired outcome, at least, of hiring advisors for medication. >> medication has fallen under some trouble this past week when 12 congress people signed a letter for the health and human services on whether tzandi is priced reasonably. is that part of the motivation to hire advisors. >> really interesting timing and i can't imagine that is part of it. that's not what i heard. have you to kind of assume that there was something that precipitated hiring advisers, whether it was as reuters was reporting that they have fielded

some offers of interest earlier this year. or whether it was someone else. medication has a cancer drug that's partnered with a japanese company. often the partnerships can turn into deals. doesn't sound like medication wants that to happen but cancer drugs are very appealing to a lot of big drug-makers right now so this has always been covered a potential takeover target. >> a lot of analysts that you've spoken to and that i've read reports on don't really believe that anything can come out of a potential investigation to the price but if you discount that franchise how much would medication be worth even if it's selling pieces of itself or entering an agreement. if there's a cloud over how much it could be sold for? >> that's a good question. most people as you just said don't really believe that anything is going to come of this request for the nih to march in here and take await patent or at least hold a public

hearing on the price of xtandi and that's why you saw the stock down yesterday and for the most people nobody thinks that xtandi is different from other cancer drugs in that it has it in its development. right now they don't think that there's a ton of uncertainty as to where this drug's revenues will come in. we'll see how that evolves. >> meg, thanks so much for phoning in and sharing your reporting with us. meg tirrell. may not sell entirely. >> may not control their destiny. the entire board would be up for election. they seem to have missed the window and, i don't know, that makes them vulnerable to delaware corp. it doesn't seem to be. i didn't see a very large insider holding base at all so it's an interesting space now, the idea of a hostile takeover in the space i find a little curious. >> look.

i'm not saying i won't buy a stock specifically for a takeover and when you hear the management say we're not willing to sell or we don't want to sell. scares me a little bit. >> judgment day for tesla after gains of more than 20% in the past month. will the unveil of the new model 3 tomorrow be enough to keep themrizing the new supercharge. much more "fast money" right after this. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives,

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welcome back toe "fast money." the dow rallying for the fourth straight day in a row and the dow and s&p 500 hit new 2016 highs putting them within 3% of the all-time high and all three major indices on track for the biggest gain. here's what's coming up. tesla's elon musk getting set to unveil the highly anticipated model three tomorrow but will that include the one thing drivers are asking for. we've got the details and one stock that's been on a tear this year and we'll tell you why traders are betting it could

fall 10% heading into an earnings report. first, an area. stock market making a huge comeback, the emerging markets on track for the best month. the emerging markets etf and eem surging more than 13% so far this month. is this group, which just faced a brutal couple of years officially out of the woods? we have some answers with the global head of market research at jpmorgan. great to have you with us. >> thanks, melissa. how are you? >> how much long ker this rally last? you say not for very much longer? >> i think it can last a little bit longer, you know, we have a horizon and the rally in emerging markets and will last for maybe a year and this will depend a lot of on what the dollar does and what the fed does so the same drivers that in a way fueling the rally across the classes i think it will be particularly important for emerging markets overall? >> and then what happens after that time frame? you're saying that fundamentals will kick in and you don't see the fundamentals being very good

at this point? >> well, that's a problem, you know, this rally has been fueled, birks you know, cheap valuations and a couple of years of very negative performance, and -- and generally speaking, equity markets come back, commodity markets coming back and the dollar appreciation fact and if the fed comes back to hunt us and the dollar starts to appreciate once again all bets are off and the fundamentals have not improved and this is the underlying bad news for emerging markets. >> hey, lewis, thanks for coming on and talking and this is a four and a half year underperformance for em but aren't some of these feeding itself and fueling a change in fundamentals? as the currencies have gotten bert and dollars lower a lot of central banks like brazil with a host of other positions might be in a position to cut rates.

a lot of others have been hawkish through very difficult tombs. we're revalued and repriced i think on a trade-weighted basis. em currencies haven't looked this good if not ever in a long time. >> that is correct, and we've seen this improvement in currencies. they are 4% year to dade and providing room for some central banks to cut rates and i think they are going to hike less or not at all so that obviously is going to help to improve the growth dynamics, but a lot of things that have been accumulated over the past few years in terms of imbalances in the emerging markets, continuing the private sector overhead and things like that, they are going to take some time to be resolved so that is one we discussed the underlying fundamentals. this is not a necessary solution so we're going to get a reprieve that we're steering right now but no dramatic turnaround. no growth in emerging markets coming back anywhere where we used to see it two, three years

ago. >> let me ask you something. this is karen. as money loves to start chasing performance. are you starting to see a shift of money into emerging markets that could make this rally last longer? >> absolutely. we have seen over the past, you know, past month a return of in flows, particularly on the retail side, etfs. that tends to follow returns so we're seeing massive outflows and now that the returns are turning positive we're seeing inflows once again and the starting point is a good one and valuations are very cheap and they are quite underweight emerging markets and that's why we think this rally will probably continue. what is a sticking point for us and why we think at some point this rally will take a breather, if not hopefully reverse fully is the fact that the fundamentals are not yet improving, you know, in order to justify the dramatic rebound that we're seeing across em. >> thanks so much for joining us, appreciate it.

b.k., what's your trade? by the way, we threw up the components of the eem etf because it was very important to understand what countries you're owning. brazil is not in the top. >> that's a distinction i would make is that you do -- i'm short eem just on the big picture broad view that we're having a global slowdown and emerge markets are going to continue to get hurt on that. and within that, look at india. if you wanted to buy something, of the emerging markets, india is probably the one that's going to come out of this the best, and it certainly has gotten a lot of attention on the investment side, so i would look to that as well, but in general i'm still somewhat bearish and eem at 36, i think it's a sell. >> technically, karen, kind of got to this. eem trades to the 200-day dalg moving average for the first time since april 2015 yesterday. india certainly has the best fundamental story. it's the most expensive emerging market and the places that are most interesting are actually southeast asia. malaysia was a trade a couple weeks ago and talked about korea, and all these places, if

china is in a better place. value as i, those are the cheapest parts of the hemisphere. you played a doma impeachment very aggressively in the last two weeks to a month and i think that's something that creates chaos. brazil would be a good place to take profits. >> quick, dave. >> selling brazil here. do i like india, buying india, and i just look at where's the dollar going to go? i don't think the dollar downside is going to continue and be sustainable so i'm -- i'm a much better seller here. >> let's talk mike ron here. let's get to seema mody on the details on mu. >> the memory chip-maker reporting mixed earnings. ceo mark dirken citing challenging market conditions. the average selling price on memory chips has fallen considerably and that's a headwind some semiconductor companies are facing right now. mike ron tech shares are moving higher after hour. the company did report a narrower than expected loss. mike ron tech says it's working on deploying new d-ram

technology and looking to significantly improve its competitive position as it moves through the second half of 2016 and beyond. melissa? >> seema mody, thanks so much. d-ram price, a commodity. >> trends on d-ram only getting worse as far as i can tell. mike ron, have they more than priced it in? absolutely. stock traded down to 10, 10.25 and bouncing around these levels. these numbers should give more advisability in the next couple of quarters. not a buyer. >> tesla getting ready to unveil the next generation of its electric vehicle. could it send the stock into overdrive? a top analyst weighs in and details on one stock the traders are betting could drop 10% in the next two months. much more "fast money" still ahead. faas

welcome back to "fast money." tesla one day away from unveiling a highly anticipated model three and the company is dropping hints of what to expect left and right and here's what's expected to be featured. the car will be equipped with sensors for autonomous driving, 200-mile driving range and new battery compositions and a $35,000 entry level price tag and are any of the game changers for the stock. more now on an outperform rating

and a $300 price target on the stock. good to see you. >> what does tesla need to deliver on in terms of keeping investors happy. >> tomorrow the consensus going into the event is that details will be limited and elon has said it a couple of times as they traveled in along the conference call and i don't think people were actually seeing a car from what we understand there will be at least one model three there at least two for a guest to ride in, as far as pricing goes and as far as range goes, they might be scant on details there and probably for competitive reasons i think, you know, importantly looking ahead is when we get that first metric about reservations, that will tell us a lot about demand which we believe has been pent up because the price of the model. >> the stock has had a nice run since the february 8 stock market lows and since the

upgrade as well, ben, and what do we need to hear in terms of the reservation number and what about long stays in the stock? >> you're upgrade was really based around the opposite of our october downgrade and october we said they weren't red for the prime time production and we turned out to be right on that, and now we're getting more comfortable with the fact that they are ramping production around the "x" but still an extreme amount of negativity even though the stock has moved around the bottom around their ability to produce the "x" at a good margin and we'll see that play out and i think the stock moves higher. as far as the model three goes in the reservation number there, you know, it took them several years, about three years to get to 15,000, i'm sorry, model s reservations. i think that they could do that and, you know in, possibly a week. a wide range of numbers out there. i can't figure out what the consensus number is, but, you know, when people start doing this math and what that is worth

and what 20,000 reservations are worth, $800 billion of potential revenue. >> right. >> that can come really quickly and then you start gaining the long-term growth story and open-ended growth story. >> when it came to the rollout of the model "x" tesla had trouble because they unveiled the most expensive signature series up front and now the "x" is a $35,000 car which is important when you try to reach the mass market but a load car will be well in excess of $35,000. is that a risk to the story, a risk to the reservation numbers that people will be putting money down on these cars and find out later on that it's not 35,000, that it's a lot more for the features that an average person would want. >> well, i think there's always, you know, a fair amount of turnover in those -- in reservation holders as they get closer, you know, especially with this. we're probably two years out from when you're going to get your car and your life change has happened and what we see is net reservations continue to

increase despite some of that bad messaging on the pricing and then i think that, you know, it's just like a bmw 3 series or audi a-1 where you go in and you have a base model and that's not model you're buying. >> ben, thanks so much for your time. appreciate it the. >> now the other thing that we didn't get a chance to address but we'll address right now is the model three mass market car. >> right. >> so what does it do to the image of tesla being a high end luxury automaker. >> moment of truth. >> can you be both is the question. >> they want to be both and the conversion for tesla has been relatively low because most people who drive it can't afford it and this is the moment of truth for elon musk and typically these are sell the news kinds of moments. >> any event. >> and i think it's really impossible to justify this valuation. i think also sadly, you know, these climate, you know, kind of friendly cars and the environment here is not changing enough to get the masses on board. sorry. >> well, when you think about

the mercedes trying to do the same thing. >> sure. >> and, you know, was a cheapening of the brand, you know, you kind of have to worry about that. if you are the 100,000 tesla owner, how do you feel about -- you've had your tesla for four years and maybe three years time to get another one. how do you feel about that seeing $50,000, $40,000 teslas. >> and i note price tag is substantially different. high-end coach and low end coach. >> that's what you have, brian. >> my pan purse is coach. i think i'm going michael kors. >> anyway, brian, tesla? >> in terms of tesla i think a lot of this has clearly been priced in the stock so it's hard for this, b.k., to actual lib buying into it up $100 off its low. 2 who seems to be formidable resistance and i think i'm there with, you know what, sell the news. >> just to be clear. >> i caught that. >> i agree with that. sell the news.

i think you absolutely sell these. look at my background. i lost technology. i love the car, and the affordability factor to me is huge, and i think that the execution. we've talked about that before. execution is crucial for them, and they have proven to do a really good job from that stand point. i like the stock long term, and i think it's really going to work. >> here at these levels i'm a seller. >> skepticism here on the desk. >> let's shift from four wheels to two wheels. motorcycle maker harley-davidson up nearly 9% year to date. mike here. >> saw nine times the average daily put volume in hearing davidson. earnings are not released until the 19th of april and the last four quarters 20 days prior to earnings the stock has declined three of those times by 10% or more and so what's been going on in the options mark, the most active argument were the may 40 4/5 puts and for those to be profitable hearing davidson

would need to decline by 10% or more in the next 50 days. >> mike, thanks a lot for that. for more "options action" our full show is back after a brief break last friday. tgif, 5:30 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. up next, the former ceo of lehman brothers taking to our air in the first tv interview discussing the collapse. the shocking comments you need to hear when "fast money" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.

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face of the firm and as a result i was associated with the entire performance of the firm? yeah, absolutely, and i talk about that. >> that was former lehman cfo erin m ho ntella discussing the firm's discuss. a fascinating interview and has a book around and she has a book out. >> kelly did a great job with the interview. made all of you shut up so i

could hear the interview in the green room and when i heard that statement, i remember thinking at the time when she was put in that role. i hear her and she was saying nobody wanted her to fail. i believe that. they just didn't want to be the one to fail. if somebody had to fail, let's make it her, it was not out of an overt, you know, just them wanting her specifically to fail. she was put i think in a horrific spot of responsibility without having had the authority for actions that got them there. >> you still made the point that you're looking at the financials of lehman brothers at the time and you didn't get them and there she was. it was a tough spot to be in all around but you're making the point that they didn't make any sense to you. >> why would you take that job then if you know you were going to put in that role. >> i really want to read it and i will is you've worked all your life and you're in this corporation and rights, rising, rights and you have a chance to make it that. >> but that may not have been

the right time. >> hindsight clearly what she's saying is i need a very different life now. what i thought would make me happy is not making me happy. >> time now to head to the skies multi-millionaires are reaching new heights when it comes to custom jets. you can get all the details tonight on the season premiere of secret lives of the super rich right here on cnbc and robert frank is here with a sneak peek right now? we note wealthy like to customize their cars and the super rich like to customize their private jets to match their cars. we caught up with gill and his porsche plane. check it out. >> the ultimate toy is his $17 million gulfstream 4 fully customized to match the cars. >> the real input that i had on the plane was the colors of this silver that i see up on top and, of course, the ferrari grigio down below. my two favorite colors anz why i

had to incorporate them. >> how much did it cost to paint the plane this color? >> about as much as somebody's home, no joking. >> i figured if it looks good in the car, probably looks good in the plane, too. >> he's actually building a silver porsche tower with a private elevator just for your car. i asked him what will happen if he changes his favorite color to silver to blue and he said i'll have to buy another private jet and new car and since tim has become the king of the super car test drive i will recommend him to help gill with that job with the new car collection. >> thank you, robert. take a lot of difficult assignments from cnbc. this seems to be another one where there's no "i" in the word tim and maybe they can create a ferrari design for my mountain bike or something. >> i get it. i have the same cloth interior in my jeep as my living room, had it tailored perfectly for

that. doesn't everybody do that stuff? >> seems terribly uncreative, robert. >> well, you know, what they lack imagination they have in good fortune. >> absolutely. >> good way of putting it, robert. >> thank you. >> robert frank and catch a glimpse of more cars, jets, mansions and much more on "super lives of the super rich" when premiers tonight. 10:00 p.m. eastern and pacific time so you will not want to miss it. i have to point out, tim, you drove the ferrari and you were also sent to mcdonald's to customize your own burger and eat it. >> i'll just said this, the ferrari lamborghini the exclusivity of the brand, the limited production, i still think in this tape ferrari at these levels looks interesting. >> ticker race. >> coming on "mad money," looking to get ahead of friday's jobs report. cramer getting a read on small pace from the ceo of paychex and the ceo of service corp talks about the finances of funerals.

coming up next, the final trades. stay tuned. faas

welcome back to "fast money." another sign of trouble in the economy and this time it has

something to do with blackrock and seema moldy with the details at headquarter. seema? >> reporter: that's right. blackrock is reportedly planning its biggest ever wave of layoffs looking to cut about 100 jobs, represents about 3% of its total workforce. the cuts will potentially be across regions and businesses that are aimed at streamlining the business and reallocating resources. the stock not really moving on this report, but keep in mind shares of blackrock down about 7% over the past one year. melissa? >> all right. seema, thank you. b.k. had been talking about blackrock just yesterday. >> i'm actually short blackrock and talked about it at the beginning of the show saying this is not a great environment for the financial in general, particularly capital markets and we're seeing it here. blackrock has big sovereign wealth investors in some of their biggest funds and the etf area and seen a fair amount of flows and if you're looking at a low-volume environment and kind of a muddle three environment at best, that's not going to be good for blackrock. >> totally agree with what brian

is saying. totally uber competitive industry and competition has gotten ridiculous hand more efficient, too. i don't think this is a sign of lack of health at blackrock, and i wouldn't impute on the economy but on the etf industry. >> final trade, let's go around the horn. tim seymour? >> best of breed oil companies. i believe that buying oil likes occidental today is a good trade for not only tomorrow but six months out. >> seaburg? >> i'm looking at mike ron. 10 bucks and a lot of support at $10, cost cut very well and samsung is probably going to go after profits versus market share which bodes well for mike ron. i'm a buyer. >> chairwoman? >> yes, if you're thinking the biotech thing has been so, so bad, got to have found a bottom around here. would i go with a quality name, gilad. >> b.k.? >> name we talk about quite a bit, ibm. they got downtraded or the debt got downtraded from stable to negative today which i thought was kind of interesting, so if you caught the rally in ibm up at these levels, you want to be

a seller. >> all right. i'm melissa least. thanks so much for watching. see you back here again at 5:00 for more "fast money." meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach and coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. we are finally free to look at the merits of individual companies. we are free to