square. >> it helps. i think the market is looking for beaten-up stocks to rotate into. facebook down and twitter up today. >> amazing, crazy stuff. we're all here tomorrow. >> we are. >> we hope you will be, too. that does it for "closing bell." thanks for joining us. >> "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. the traders are dan nathan, karen finerman, david seaburg and guy adami. tonight on "fast" legendary investor mohammed elarian said stocks could fall by 10%. where does he see them heading now? he's here in just moments and worst to first. and why it could bring you big profits and tesla falling after hours after missing delivery expectations for the quarter but something else could have an even bigger impact on the stock. we'll tell what you that is but we start off with breaking news out of washington. let's get right to eamon javers

with the details. >> reporter: hi, melissa. treasury is implementing imposed regulations on tax inversions, an issue we've heard a lot about, criticism from both hillary clinton and donald trump. now treasury saying it's taking new regulatory steps. here's what treasury says is actually happening. they will try to limit inversions by disregarding foreign parent stock attributable to recent inversions or acquisitions of companies and they will try to address earnings stripping by targeting transactions that generate large interest deductions allowing the irs on audit to have debt instruments and debt equity and requiring certain implementations of debt instrumentation of what is debt and not deal in one of the tax inversion deals. treasury has done this two times before and on a conference call with reporters that happened a few minutes ago they declined to say whether the two previous actions the treasury has taken actually had any effect in limiting the tax inversion transactions. mel sla? >> eamon, from your reporting do these new efforts seem onerous

to the companies looking to do inversions? >> reporter: we're going to have to take a look at that. i would think based on what they are able to do, just regulatory, in terms of the regulatory process as opposed to what congress can do by actually issuing new law here, this will be on the limited side. what treasury has always said here is that congress needs to step up and act, and the question really is for 2017 what will happen with a -- if we have a president hillary clinton or a president donald trump taking office, now trying to live up to some of these campaign trail promises on tax inversions. could you actually see congress do something next year. obviously a lot will depend on who gets elected president though. >> it's karen. let me ask you. the timing for this would be -- would be with deals in process now be grandfathered and allowed to proceed? >> reporter: that is a really good question. i'm just looking here at our notes from treasury. i don't have the answer to that. typically what happens when they do this is they announce these proposed regulations, and there's some process of time whereby they have to get input

from conditions and there's a long lead time to these things. i'd have to get the specifics for you on this one. >> got t.eamon, thank you. eamon javers in d.c., new efforts to deter inversions. karen, were there deals in mind? >> allergen. i'm not sure if there's other ones. clearly there's been a hiatus on big deals after what's going on in the space. >> sure. you've been bullish in health care and biotech. >> yeah. does this sort of put the kibosh on any of the deals you think could happen? >> this is a long cycle to it. again, it's a third attempt there. i don't look at it as having an impact at all on a company's due diligence in the process. i'm not looking at this as curtailing the space at all or having an effect in the space. >> karen mentioned allergen, i think a lot of people, that stock was a $340 stock when the pfizer news started coming out and traded down to the 260s. had had a nice day and the rest of the space was up. i don't want to get carried

away. on valuation alone, 16 times forward earnings and given the selloff in this stock this is a name you want to buy. this might be construed as negative for alering ererin ea >> i would expect allergen to go down more than pfizer, stuck at 30, 30.5, 31 and has a 40% div yield and has been beaten up here and we know this is a company with catalyst later on this year. >> the other breaking story of the night and that's a major shake-up at disney. let's get right to julia boorstin with the lateest. >> reporter: a big surprise that disney's ceo bob iger's heir apparent is leaving. the chief executive officer is stepping down from the role as of may 6th. we'll remove in the role of special advisers to bob iger through this fiscal year. a source close to the station says after a year in the c.o.o. role he was not given assurance by disney's board he would

eventually succeed iger and he and the board decided it would make more sense for him to move on. staggs has spent 26 years at disney. he was previously chief financial officer as well as head of disney's parks and resorts division, leading that division through massive growth including setting the state for the launch of "shanghai disney" which is opening in june. disney saying in a press release with approximately two years left before mr. iger steps down as board of directors disney will prodden its scope to try to identify and evaluate a robust slate of candidates for consideration. iger will leave almost impossibly big shoes to fill. his acquisitions of pixar, marvel entertainment and lucas film have transformed the company as has hits investment in expanding disney's parks and resorts. disney tells me it has no plans to name a new c.o.o. i also hear that during tom staggs' ten-year history he's

been approached by a number of private and public companies so i suspect he shouldn't have a hard time finding a new job. melissa? >> who is now the heir apparent? somebody along the lines of a john lassiter? >> no, i think that john lass remember it is more of a creative type and less likely to have the kind of management experience that disney would want for someone in this role. the reason why staggs was considered so perfect because he had the hands-on experience managing the parks and as cfo he also got to touch all of the different divisions so i think right now there's not an heir apparent. it will be very interesting to see who the studio -- who the whole company talks to both in terms of internal candidates as well as external candidates but it's worth noting that they do have two years to figure this out. i would suspect they are starting right now though to look both internally and externally who might have the right experience to manage such a massive company. >> all right. julia, thank you. julia boorstin in los angeles with that developing story in the after hours session.

what happens now? would you invest in a company where in two years you don't know right now who the ceo will be? >> yeah. i mean, i don't have a problem with that. this isn't a big disruption for me. look, as far as the stock is concerned. my opinion on it wouldn't change at all. the "star wars" theme has played out and know what's going on with hbo and look at stock at $98 and say it's probably a neutral in my camp. i wouldn't jump in head first to buy it nor would i be selling it aggressively, but this wouldn't change my opinion on the stock, full. >> i agree. two years out a lot can happen. i'm wondering out loud if the heir apparent is bob iger. if he doesn't want to. >> if he just stays on. >> i think he's probably about retirement age so there would be pressure to have somebody new. doesn't a good job and the street loves him and seems to be an executive that seems to be universally respected, liked, i don't know. sometimes it's hard, you know, to give up the throne. >> right. in some respects is disney in a safe path i? don't want to say safe path? that's a little bit too simple

but a well thought out path given the expansion of theme parks is happening. lucas films was purchased and pixar sunday the roof. you have to have an idea where the company is going. >> hitting on a lot of cylinders. i would stay with it. they will get buffeted by what's out there, the cable situation. that will hurt espn regardless of who is in the scene. >> the stock got down after the last quarter, 87 bucs or so and now it's at 98.5, and i would not be selling the stock off of this piece of news but it's really underperformed the market or it's in line with the market's move off of the february lows so it's not that impressive. your question, mel, how are they set up going forward. we know on a content standpoint we know they are doing great and will expand their parks here. some of the content delivery issues and i'm of the camp that it will take more than a few quarters to play itself out. it will probably be an annualized thing that we'll ilbe talking about in the fall. >> doesn't matter who is ceo. >> the disney story absolutely

changed at the end of july, early august, whenever it was when bob iger came out when the stock was trading 122 and maded headwinds with the espn and all those things and the stock retread back to 120 has never looked back. the entire space is being revaluations, anyfrom 14 to 16 times forward earnings for the space and disney still deserves the premium valuation, but you know whatted a 98 bucks you're bumping at the top of the range. >> let's bring in the man who wrote the book on disney, "disney war," james stewart. great to have you with us. >> thanks. good to be with you. >> who do you think should be heir apparent at this point? >> well, i'm still kind of absorb is the shock that there isn't an heir apparent now given that stagg is going to step down which i think is truly a stock and i can only assume there's something we don't know because there's no obvious reason in my view to have that happen the way

it is. when it comes to an heir apparent the main other contender was jay rizzul ho who was publicly vying to be the contender with staggs and he's gone. the trouble with disney about the stock, most by will the cable situation and what's happening broadly with unbottling, the head of the media networks, the woman who ran that, she bowed out several years ago and decided to become some kind of a director so there's no obvious contender from that side of the company. the big success has been, you know, the revitalization of the disney animation unit with "frozen," tremendous success. that's where you have john lassiter also continuing to run pixar very successfully, but i can't claim to know john lassiter all that well, you know, based on my work on the book, he is very christ. he's amazingly successful at what he does, and it would be a big mistake to pull him out of a creative role like that hand

make him the chief executive in my view. i don't think he aspires that. i don't think he'd want it. i don't think they would do it. the iger model, and by the way, staggs was very much in the iger model, was not to be the creative person but to effectively delegate. he was the anti-eisner in that sense. eisner wanted to be seen absthe new walt disney and didn't want to give up power which led to the extremely messy and tortured transits to iger. iger has been the opposite of eisner in that way. he's nod seem to be an egomaniac and willing to put people at where they are good and give them the rope to do it successfully and it's worked very well in their tenure. that's the model that staggs seems to fit and the fact that they turned away from him leaves me baffled what they might be lookingor. >> seems like there will be a good story that emerges why staggs left why there's only two years to wait for the ceo role.

do you think the company lost confidence in staggs or iger signalled he might be up for staying beyond two years? >> i think that's a possibility. remember, he was going to step down i believe this year and then he extended it two years. i mean, maybe the board was pressuring him. he's a very youthful guy, very energetic. people said things were going on and people said he wanted to stay on for the opening of the shanghai theme park and that's coming up fairly soon. it wouldn't shock me that he desired to stay another year or two but whether that was enough to push staggs over the edge i can't be inside his mind to know but if i were staggs and iger kept endlessly delaying when he might leave, maybe i would get discouraged, i don't know. it's hard to say. a lot we still don't know and maybe some of this will elearning more clearly in the coming days and weeks. >> right. >> but i also think they will have to at least consider

outside candidates. >> sure. james, thanks a lot for phoning in. appreciate your analysis. >> thanks so much. >> james stewart of the "new york times." so karen alluded to fact that perhaps iger would be on the short list of the candidates to replace himself which would be great for the stock, wouldn't it? >> it would be great, but, again, not going to announce it tomorrow. >> sure. >> again, it comes down to what are you comfortable with in terms of valuation? think the report on may 3rd, i have a month into earnings, but i don't think anything has fundamentally changed so it comes down to what's the right valuation for the space and does disney still deserve a premium valuation? >> and the answer? >> i think the right valuation for the space is somewhere between 14 and 15 times forward earnings, maybe disney deserves a 16 but it's all moving the wrong way for the industry. tesla following after hours after missing delivery expectations, but there's something else that could have an even bigger impact on the stock. what that is, and investors are pulling money out of one formerly hot sector and piling into another.

we'll tell what you that sector is and what you can still get in on what's called the next great trade. something curious is happening in the commodities world that has dennis gartman doing something he hasn't done in a very long time. we'll hear from him when "fast money" returns. seizing opportunity. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct. thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere... bob... you're a young farmhand and e*trade is your cow. milk it. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity.

welcome back to "fast money." the last time imco-ceo was on our air this is what he says about stocks. >> this is a range-bound market. the range will get bigger over time which exposes it to a breakout one way or the other, too early to say which way but don't be surprised if you see a 5% to 10% move the other way because that's what we've been having actually for a while now. let's welcome back mohammed elarian, and you said it could go either way. at this point do you have more clarity on which way and hoch? >> in terms of the range, melissa, i think we're at the top end of the range and that's because we're often the sunny side of the central bank influence. we've had very dovish comments out of central banks, including the fed and including last tuesday and if you look across markets, melissa, it's not that

we're pricing central bank support but we're expecting the fed to hedge support and i don't think that's going to happen and, therefore, i think there's vulnerability to the market on how it perceives central banks. >> when you say sunny side of central bank commentary do you mean dovish, and if that is the case, i mean, if the fed is basically telegraphed that it's going to be on the sidelines for, i don't know, until the back half. year, we could be setting up for, you know, a window of time in which stocks can actually go higher for a few months here. >> reporter: we could if the fed doesn't change signals. the problem is that the fed has been changing signals so go back to december, they hiked rates and told us perhaps we'll get full hikes this year and then the market reactivated negatively and come february they started becoming more dovish and the market liked that. the problem is that when you have a fed that's data dependent and it's trying to balance external influences that are

negative versus domestic influences that are positive it comes across as inconsistent. it comes across as flip-flopping, and i think that that's going to continue. >> okay. i want to ask you about something that donald trump, the republican front-runner has been warning americans about, and that is he believes the economy is in a terrible situation. here are the latest remarks coming today during a campaign stop in wisconsin, so i'm going to play the clip, and would i love to get your reaction. >> bubbles, bubbles aren't pretty. we've had bubble, and when they burst, it's not a good thing, and what i said is we're going to go into a massive recession, but i also say if i'm president that's not going to happen because i'm going to straighten things out before it happens. it's going to be a mess. >> all right. there's a lot to unpack there. do you believe that there will be a massive recession, and, you know, we've seen the federal reserve try and tackle on the

monetary policy side downturns? can a president actually prevent a massive recession from happening? >> so i've put the probability of a recession in 2017 at 30% and it's lower in 2016, so it's not a baseline. secondly, it's not because of what's happening in the u.s. the u.s. is doing okay. it's because of what's happening outside our borders. that's where the risk comes from. in terms of what the fed can do, the fed is running out of ammunition, not in terms of can it do more, yes, but effective ammunition. it is becoming less effective and so are other central banks and what we need most melissa is a handoff, a handoff on prolonged reliance on central banks to a more comprehensive policy response, and that is what underpins a strong stock market. >> okay. so just getting back to -- the president though, a president, any president, he or her cannot

prevent a recession? >> you know, it's hard because it's subject to checks and balances, so they need to go to -- what you need to prevent a recession, need a more responsible fiscal policy and you won't get that congress, you need corporate tax reform, you won't get that. a president or her or his own is limited. >> thanks so much. i'm going to maybe step over the line in terms of connecting the dots, but he's saying donald trump is wrong. >> about what? >> everything that he said basically in that clip. >> donald sounded like ted cruz i'm going to get everything done on day one. no way he can have an impact like that an turn things on a time so it's really kowtowing, trying to appeal to a marks you know, voting community which is insane. i don't think anybody should buy in. >> you know, i wasn't able to vote in the '28 election when

hoover ran, but it's interesting, history does repeat itself. trump is promising he's going to do everything. hoover, chicken in every pot and d'mar every garage. 1928, i don't want to tell what you happened in the years after 1928 and trump is promising he's going to take care of everything because he's the man. scary stuff. >> i think the ability for a president to have an effect on a recession is far more likely to cause one. >> right. >> by terrible poll. >> i that's correct. >> than to prevent one. >> and mohammed makes a good point. a lot of this is international factors, too. the president of the united states cannot necessarily prevent the impact of a slowdown globally on the u.s. >> listen, he just started on something that he wrote a whole book on, the only game in time, a great book, get out there and read it, but it really is the fact their message is flip-flopping, the fact that the tools that they have used to get us here are ineffective, the fact that we're going to print less than 11% gdp quarter, you know, so the point is like they don't have effective tools

anymore, and if you're worried about volatility in january and february, it's going to come back at some point because this data-dependant fed, the data will keep flip-flopping all year long. >> ale shares have rallied almost 20% from their lows and some traders are betting the stock could see new highs. what's got them so excited. i'm mel somewhat lee and you're watching "fast" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here what else is coming up on "fast." >> that's what biotech stocks are doing and it could signal the next great trade in the market. we'll explain. plus, something very curious is happening in the commodities world. >> no way that just happened. yes, yes, it did, and it could have big implications for the market. we'll tell you what that is and how you can get in on the action. all that and more ahead on "fast." s." for them, nothing else is acceptable. but nothing could be worse for the whales. most of the orcas at seaworld were born here.

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welcome back to "fast money." tesla kicking off our top trades tonight, the stock getting hill after hours after first quarter deliveries fell short of expectations due in part to parts short action after tesla hit a new year-to-date high after confirming the pre-orders for the new model 3 topped 7

36,000. >> when you think about what just happened with 276,000, $1,000 deposits as mike cheou mentioned the other night, that's basically a 0 interest loan. that is something that's burning that in cash on a quarterly basis and lose money on every car that you do and if you're worried about them selling less cars that they guided to, you should feel okay to that and you mentioned this before the show, really speaks to the complexity of the execution issues that they have. they have a lot of products acted are making a lot of different cars and all of a sudden they are scheduled late next year to deliver more cars than they delivered in the history of the company, so if you're just buying the stock here up $100 from the february lows, you kind of got turned

around a little bit because this was the catalyst. >> the bold case is that this will say -- the way tesla talked about the shortfall in the quarter was that they had hubris because there was a lot of technology in the mold "x" that's probably the most complicated or more complicated vehicle out there and they were very, very positive in terms of the model 3 having less technology and being much more stripped down and much simpler in terms of production so that should be easier on that front. >> no doubt. >> and i look and say execution is super important and when it be the factor and getting to the sweet spot of half a million deliveries, as long as they can continue to convince wall street that they can get to the number, the stock has some sort of buy-in, if you will, from not only the traditional fundamental investor but there's a technology investor base that's in this story that understands the sort of long-term, you know, growth sort of aspect of the technology that we've developed. do i say take money off the

table, here 100%. for the past couple of days. think it's a ridiculous valuation for the short term and i would be a several and look to buy it back as it breaks down closer to the $200 level. >> amazing to see in the after hour session 3% or so which is not today's gains and you would have thought it would in another situation be hit even harder. >> no question. >> the bold case, the cars are interesting but they are looking to take over your home and they have much bigger plants so if you can buy into that mantra then you can make sense at tesla $240 but we said it on friday and i'm sort inform david's camp. if you enjoyed the run from 140 i think it was to current levels, proper -- just to take something off the table is a proper dispublic. >> you've got to think that detroit and japan for that matter is watching tesla very carefully. i mean, they are probably a little bit freaked out that people are willing to stand online and put a $1,000 deposit down on the car that won't arrive in the driveway for at least the next two years and

here they are increasing spending on discounting, particularly the big three, just in order to sort of keep up with the peak sales number. >> if you're -- any manufacturer has to be really concerned about this. i mean, especially fur think the pie isn't growing. they are just taking share away now. that's really a problem and you saw gm. >> i'm not so certain. when you think about it. gm and ford sold $2990 billion worth of cars and if they sell these 276 million that's $10 billion in ref knew. less than one of these companies do in a month so when you think about it is, i agree with guy. it is an auto company. i'm rooting for these guys. >> $10 billion in the first year of production for one model. >> mel, last year the average cost of car in america was $33.500 and when you get this cart way you want it it will be closer to 40 so i think people

put down $1,000 so they can dog at the cocktail party and club and i bet a lot of them don't transact and lower for longer oil. this is the market. for year people who have been saying people who buy $100,000 electronic vehicle, don't care about gas. if oil stays down here, i'm not so certain that a $35,000 or $40,000 ev scar that exciting to most consumers. >> all right. coming up, a very serious case for mod tis, oil and gold selling off as the dollar slides. so what gives? commodities king dennis gartman is here to weigh n. plus, is the bott foam in for apple. why traders are et begun the stock could move much higher from here. much more "fast money" right after this. [dad] i wear a dozen different hats

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uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. welcome back to "fast money." we've got breaking news on allergen. >> reporter: shares just touching a session low, off 19% in the after-hours session, the reason being for the third time the treasury has released a new

set or an additional set of anti-inversion rules and the treasury official saying the latest rules could be effective on deals closing after today, so why is it affecting allergen? keep in mind this is a company based in ireland and it's expected to merge with pfizer in a way to help pfizer avoid paying certain u.s. taxes, even though it would maintain operations other in the u.s. that deal, of course, is expected to close later this year, but, again, allergen shares down 19% in the wake of the release of those additional anti-inversion rules that were released by the treasury at about 5:00 eastern today, melissa. back to you. >> guy adami, you've virtually predicted this would be the reaction. >> i didn't think it would go down as far as it did. got sold off. this is now a 52-week low. you're looking for a generics company, just a great firm. allergen is it. i didn't think it was expensive going no this. i understand what's going on. maybe there's stuff karen can speak to and maybe people are getting smoked on that and i

think this is a steal if you can get it in the 230s. they report on april 27th. i don't know how it works. i wouldn't be surprise federal they ratcheted that up and reported earlier or something because if you look at this company it's a great, great firm. >> you've got two things going on. you have an increased deal risk because of thin version rule and nobody knows what to make of it, and this deal could very well pass and not be a problem. the downside though is when you have a broken deal, obviously the stock goes down, but when they signed up this deal, things in this space were not nearly as bad as they are right now. remember, valeant made a very aggressive series of bids for allerg allergen. clearly valeant is nowhere on the horizon for this so the downside of a broken deal is not to where it was trading before. >> sure. >> it's far lower. >> dan? >> yeah. >> like i said just a little bit ago. pfizer is the one here that you can't put your arms around what's going to happen to that spread and this won't affect the deal value. it's whether that will happen or not and that could keep allergen

down and shouldn't weigh too much on pfizer and i know people with a want to back into what the synergies were and pfizer was trading higher when they announced the deal so down at $35 it's fine. >> allergen has been on a big rin, the ibb that tracks biotech stocks been tracking for the third straight day and this morning biotech is up 11%, 12% from february 11 lows, carter. >> if we know, meaner versions are the most powerful in markets. think of ricochets that has gone on in industrial energies, the worst performers meaning bad things get good and vice versa and one of the best things was biotech and then they got walloped and now they are starting to come back so what i've got here first is the worst sectors in q1, i'm sorry, industry groups. about 130 in total and what we see is pretty bad stuff for a

marked that was uned and if you get down in the bottom half of the top ten we've got biotech for a market that's uned, pretty bad stuff and q2, exactly the opposite, so, again, only a couple days in, the meaner version is under way, and -- and to my eye if you look the ibb, there's more to come so i want to look at some charts and then wrap it up, so here we go. this is the spread. optically quite clear, s&p, and then here's the ibb, and what we're playing for here is some catchup on the part of the ibb relative to the s&p 500, so here's the more immediate chart which means we're going to study this right here had on the here and now, and what i see is this. take away the lines, put them in. i think you've got a clear double bottom. i think you have well-defined tops at a common level, and i'm making the bet that this is

going to continue to exceed the tops and complete this formation which would give you the convergence that we're expecting so ibb for outperformance relative to the s&p to continue. >> carter, thank you. david, you've been bullish on biotech for a while. >> great analysis and i look at the ibbs and say we just watch the entire tape ripped up. watched the commodity sector and anything related to energy takeoff and the fundamentals just didn't support is quite frankly. if you're a fundamental analyst within this environment you're going to look to what sectors have been beaten down that offer really solid fundamentals and i look and say in general large-cap biotech has incredibly solid fundamentals and i understand the whole nonsense, if you will, about price and i say nonsense. >> it's become -- >> let's say hillary clinton gets elected.

how long is it going to take before they can implement any change? at least two years for any change to be implemented because they need congress >> not necessarily. i don't know how -- >> i'll tell you what it is. it's exactly like opec, a total noise pollution trade as far as i'm concerned that took the wind out of a sector that had incredible gains over a six-year period. >> can i just tell you something, your analysis would be better off, you said carter's analysis great, the fundamentals are still very fuzzy and uncertain and the other peeves garbage has rallied this. thing has been basing -- if you look like there's a clear path to the downtrend it's about 10% from his work and my work. >> roughly. >> that's the way you play it and if you got that you'd step out of it because of that uncertainty. >> and you would say to yourself -- >> david, i don't think it's easy toe say that the fundamentals are so certain. pricing is a thing -- >> let's talk about specifics. >> growth predicated on drugs being priced in a certain way in a certain political environment. >> 280 in the ibb, held the

first time down, bounced down and failed the second time. 280 toe me is the line in the sand. comparter made a compelling argument but it has to get through 280 on the upside. >> karen, when you look at these stocks, do you value fundamentals or do you see the political overhang and think even with a good valuation case it's hard to invest in? >> yeah. that is a difficult question because now do you put a value on sentiment that could not change for a while but i do think there's babies there in the bath water and i'm hesitant to buy them because i hate you can wake up one day with a failed trial but if you had to pick one i would go with gilad as a baby in the bath water. >> floating. all right. still ahead, something very strange is hearing in the commodity sector, dennis gartman and what he thinks is behind the odd moves. that and more after this break.

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welcome back to "fast money." the dollar has been falling but curiously enough commodities which usually move in the opposite direction to the dollar are also falling. sorting out this market mystery is mr. mystery himself dominic chu. >> reporter: melissa, this market is full of mysteries, and one of them has to do with what happens with commodities and how

they trade, but one fundamental factor that's going to play into this is the relationship between commodity prices and that value of the u.s. dollar. now, the reason why there is this big relationship is because for the most part xhold tis a generally priced in u.s. dollars, so what does this mean? if you take a look at the longer-term chart of the relationship between commodity prices and the value of the dollar you'll see they generally move in opposite directions. one of the big reasons why is because as the dollar rises in value it becomes relatively more expensive to gain access to those dollars to then buy these commodities that are priced in dollars so as the dollar prices you typically see prices fall from commodities. conversely as the value of the dollar drops it becomes keeper for other people to buy dollars than to buy those assets that are priced in dollars and hench

that relationship between dol r dollars and commodities. year to date in 2016 for the most part we've kind of seen a little bit of that kind of inverse relationship play out but very near term, over the past couple of two, three weeks or so, we've seen commodity prize fall alongside the dollar so a big mystery there. a lot of it could be fundamentals about the commodities themselves like oil or gold or any other factors, but, still, melissa, the mystery around commodities is certainly driven a lot by fundamentals around certainly the value of the dollar and as you talk about where commodity prices may be headed and short term that seems to have broncen down. >> thank you, dom chiu. how how long do you see this happening? >> dom did a good job explaining

the normal relationship between dollar and commodities. for the past month or so, however, the correlation as dom was explaining has broken down, and it might well be a -- a certain manifestation of the fact that at the margin and at the margin, the last 2% or 3% of buyers who put prize up, it's the last 2% of sellers who put prices down. at the margin perhaps what we're seeing is a lesser respect for the u.s. dollar and a greater use of other currencies to buy commodities. we might be seeing more pricing of crude oil in -- in asia in remimbi terms and greater prices of grains in europe in euro terms. we may be seeing greater pricing of commodities, base metals, for example, in yen terms in aship. i think that's what's really happening here. do i think that's going to

continue and will the u.s. give up its position as a -- its position? i don't think so. the remimbi will become a more important currency and on balance a stronger dollar will beget weaker dollar prices and a weaker dollar will beget stronger commodity prize and that long-term correlation will attain. >> dennis, it's karen. let me ask you something. could it be that the u.s. economy is slowing which would be the cause of both? >> it's possible, but we are clearly stronger than europe. we are clearly stronger than most of the economies in asia, so i think, karen, that that probably takes care of that argument. it may well be that. i doubt that that's what's going on. >> dennis, finally, now what for -- for oil, especially as we head into doha? >> i've said for a long time we'll be $5, either side of $37.

we got to 42. at 42 spot, that gives you 42 in a one-year forward. that's a very hedgeable area. clearly there was selling up there. we'll probably go down to see $32 and at that point we'll see an even greater number of drill rigs coming off. we'll see hedges being unwound. 329 low and 42 the high. i've said it for a month and i'll continue with that idea. >> dennis, good to see you. dennis gartman of "the gartman letter. ". >> b.k. say get the market right and the ovx, is will hold 44. held 44 and now it's north of 50 which means crude goes down. i think we've done a good job sort of navigating this. i think crude is head lower and i think the dollar is headed higher and i think the ovx tells you everything you need to know. >> seen rotation out of a lot of material stocks and energy stocks. does that last? >> i think could last. look, earnings are coming right around the corner. the street is anticipating a 7

percentage decline in a lot of energy names. it could be a lot worse than that, no question and that would have an negative impact on all of the equity and it won't be a positive thing. why did we go there? often a repositioning trade. i could see oig in general coming back to the 32 level. >> music to your years when karen asked dennis could it be the u.s. economy is weak and therefore the commodities number is weak? >> the unemployment data would speak to a fed tightening and there was also construction data on friday that spoke, to yeah, there was a push-up in residential housing, but non-residential was really weak actually, and when you think about that and think about demand for commodities and equipment and that sort of thing, to me i think that the worry is external and that the fed ends up with what dennis just said that there is potential in a non-growth

environment after mohammed al arian, there's a bigger chance of recession in 2017, extended the period over a year of the last longest recession. >> even if the donald win? >> here's the other thing about the dollar, just want to look at the dixie, been trading between 49 and 100, 94.5. every time it's traded 94ish over the last couple of months it's rallied back to 98. so what happens then? >> the secret sign that apple may finally have hit a floor, what that is and if it's too late to get in. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct. thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere... bob... you're a young farmhand and e*trade is your cow. milk it.

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show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money." twitter topping the tape seeing its second best day of the year after ending the session up nearly 7%. this comes after mastercard expressed interest and working with the social media trade. what's your twitter trade, by the way? >> i laugh because i actually think the stock has the chance to go a lot higher if managed properly. this won't explode their user growth. they need to figure that out for the stock to really work. i look at it and say there's a lot of tweaks for this stock to

work out. not about monetization, it's about figuring out how to really ramp their user base and user growth. >> let's shift gears and talk a. it's rallied 20% since its 2016 intraday low and the move has the bears running scared. dan is breaking down all the action at the as far as board. dan? >> today call volume was 1.7 times that of puts. like you said, mel, the stock has run 27% off its january lows, up 5.5% on the year and today when the stock was 11.70, somebody who made a prior wellish bet probably in mid-february, today they were buying to close 12,000-of-the-jan 1780 puts paying and they sold puts prior with the hope that the stock would go up and they would profit from the puts losing value so today they closed them out. today it's northern to look at the caught. the stock caught some mojo and will report their fiscal q2 april 25th here. we know that the quarter is probably not tracking as well as some recent analysts have

suggested as far as iphone units. i just want to show you the chart here. this is the july high. you can draw a line right here. look at that downtrend line here. look halt what each one of these teams preceded -- the highs preceded a pretty big drop and i think you see highs on the consolidated q2 numbers and wouldn't be surprised if guidance is disappointing. check out the full "options action" at 5:30 p.m. eastern on friday. coming up next, the final trade. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.

there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. my dad gave me you know.ares, he ran that company. i get it. but you know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. an honest opinion is how edward jones makes sense of investing.

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today - at business.ny.gov time for the final trade. around the horn we go. dan nathan? >> yeah, i was anything pfizer may be done with some of this uncertainty. it's up, and i'd be a buyer of it down near 30, 30.5. >> karen? >> yes. if you have disney going into this news, hold on to it. not a reason to sell. >> seaburg? >> tes larks can't see it drifting up here. take money off tesla if you're an owner. >> guy? >> who you betting on tonight, big game, carolina/novoa. >> i don't know what you're talking about. villanova. >> i like that. playing well, yeah, right? >> i was thinking that.

>> got a lot in carolina. >> final trade? >> final trade? >> good game. i'm not calling a bottom, allergen, a lot of analysts talking about it, too cheap at 225. >> i'm melissa lee. more "fast" tomorrow. "mad money" starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money and i'm here there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but educate and teach. call 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. is this really a terrible time to invest? last week, donald trump said it was. he told the "washington post" that there's a big bubble in the economy and the stock