"fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. our traders are tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight it's make or break. traders see one stock in particular that could be the most vulnerable. we'll give you the name. plus, an experiment just moments ago on facebook involving a watermelon and a rubber band. coman explain why the social media giant is worth over $300 billion. and later in honor of the spacex launch we've got four

stocks ready to blast off and send your portfolio to new heights. we'll give you those names. first, we start off with the market's moment of truth as we head into what's setting up to be a very crucial earnings season. is the worst baked in, or are we going to see a very tumultuous week? guy, we -- >> hi. >> we ask the question because it seems like it's a foregone conclusion, that people say earnings are going to be terrible. earnings are going to be terrible and, therefore, stocks reflect that. >> therefore, everybody should know that and stocks reflect that. >> i think tim would probably agree with that. >> i would. >> i don't know. the bank earnings to me would be the most interesting thick because i don't think anybody has a clue with what some of the bank earnings are going to come out with. i'll say this. today was an interesting for me, one reason. the huge move in oyl which was outstanding. >> sxwligt but the oil volatility index was up a percent and a half as well. something doesn't sort of jive there. one is telling you one story and the other is telling you a different story so i tend to favor ovx. that's basically been truth over the last six to ninth months, that being up a couple of

percents leads me to believe that's an anomaly in crude. bank earnings to me are critical. >> yes, absolutely. >> if you look at where earnings were, have a gdp number, fourth-quarter numbers in hindsight, down 13.5% for the united states which is awful. there are sectors where i think actually we've seen the trough. i think in the transports, depending on especially the guys that are mother, posed and more levered to the commodity sector these are places where large lit numbers won't get a lot bert and i think we've trofd and the dollar for multi-nationals. that will be very interesting because, you know, companies will tell you what they expect. that doesn't mean that's what's going to happen because there are no better dollar traders than most of the other people out there, and i do think this is something where you can get a silver lining. minus 6% and the bar is very low. health care would be the best. >> you would hope staples and multi-nationals would have this report because of the dollar report and that's one of the most market trades. let's say there's high-profile disappointments. >> right. >> and we've got these stocks

sitting at all-time highs in many cases. >> i'm a big fan saying it can't be in the numbers. everyone likes to think it's in the market and the price. can't be in the price because it hasn't happened yet. i guess people can make their estimates so some can be factored into the price and when you watch energy outperform because of oil today and watch utilities. didn't drastically underperform. wasn't an incredible lagard, middle. pack so for me you still go for that yield and hunt for that yield because we're still in the trading range until proven otherwise and when we bang out of it, it will be big one way or another. >> take a look at the gap, for instance, right? >> brought down a whole retail sector because now there's a worry about what happened in the month of march and what will happen with inventories and it took the sector down. >> yeah. >> and when you look at the big picture, the aggregate numbers, had wholesale inventories today and saw that those came off a bit, inventory to sales ratio is still at elevated levels so i would say you better hope that the bad earnings are in this market after an 11% rip off the lows. you better hope that people have

priced it in, because if it's not we do have more, you know, to go on the downside. i think it's going to be about guidance. that's the real key. we have atlanta gdp, q2 gdp looking at 0.4% which doesn't really bode well for going forward here in the economy, we'll see. i think it's -- the easy trade here is you buy volume think the. >> i'm sorry, we're going on an extended period of time where we haven't really seen corporate profits. at a certain point people are going to say efficiencies are thrown out the window. buybacks are thrown out the window. >> we have. >> i don't know if you can truly, getting back to where we started, i don't know if you can factor it all in until you actually see it so to what degree are the corporate profits eliminated? >> other trades you would make ahead of earnings season? >> i think the place where you would feel most comfortable would be in health care. stateles is most at risk even though ultimately i want to buy these stocks to get a reaction.

i think guy nailed it with regards to financials though because that's true lit place where while i don't think they are falling apart. you know, i've been asked many times in the last month, as i've tried to defend financials would you buy them and i wouldn't buy them so i think the financials actually are in a place where they are probably going to get cheaper and the numbers will be very important to get the insgligt the same reason, why might be concerned about consumer staples going to earnings season. could financials be setting up for an upside as the worst performing sector year to date? >> valuations are compelling enough and the numbers weren't lousy enough because i don't know how they will come out with gang buster earnings. look what jeffrey said probably now a month and a half or so ago. it's a challenging environment for a lot of these investment banks, you know. the yield curve is working against them and the trading environment has not been great. no ipo calendar whatsoever. you're laughing at me. >> no, no, no. maybe down 7% year to date. maybe it's reflected in the stocks now. >> and that goes back to what steve was saying. nothing is reflected necessarily. >> look at goldman sachs this week. multiple downgrades in terms of

their -- in terms of earnings and what not, so i think there still is; at least in the financials. the bar is very low, but it still looks like people are still expecting some much lower earnings out will. >> do you get worried about retailers given the gap and the impact it had on the secretariesors and i know retailers don't comeut with their earnings for a while, sort of at the tail end of the season. >> right. >> but at this point is it reflected? it took the whole sector down. >> i think obviously we've all been talking about gasoline and low prices and how that really translates to retailers, and i think you have to be retail specific. i mentioned it last night. kate spade, that one has 20%, 25% to the upside. based on trends though, have to be buying these things for specific stories. >> right. >> i think the retail sector is -- is a place where the stock picked. there's a number of companies that look like they have become totally ubiquitous or not well managed. inventory been awful and don't have the growth internationally where a couple of these guys do where you get into the athleisure space. a very popular trade still and

probably a place where you continue to see more growth than you do in some. lower priced, tj maax and some of those brands continues to outperform. i don't see what changes that. >> what are the ones to watch heading into another week? steve grasso? >> walk and talk with song. >> we look at a daily chart. this week we looked at a weekly chart simply because it's a little bit more telling. we had what guy likes to call and the technical space likes to call an inside week so we made had a lower high hand we made a higher low. that's your inside week right here. what does this tell you? if you look back to the last couple of these inside weeks. these were them. not that frequent. it doesn't happen that -- happen with that much frequency and what happened last time we had an 11% move to the upside here. ultimately we had a 12% move to the downside here, so if you look at these levels. these were pretty active bottoms

here and now we're here. what happens? what does it tell us? it tells us that the recent move is probably out of gas. if you overlay this, you can do the math here. 10%, 12% to the downside, but as i said before, when you have this type of bracket that we've been trading in, this type of range, you're bounce around. you're bounce around here. just imagine a ping-pong ball. once you bounce out either way it's huge. so if you look it here, either we're looking at this, 22, 2,200 to the upside or we're looking at an 1800 handle to the downside. take your pick. dealer's choice. >> what's your pick? >> well, right now i'm going to play this against 2005 the. if we break down below 2015 which is your 200-day moving average i'm probably going to bail half. 50% cash and go another 25% cash. >> guy. >> ease up on top, dealer's

choice, by the way. >> full's of the canvas that is a smart board. >> what are you doing? >> in terms of the level though, guy. >> listen, steve's levels. he goes through these things painstakingly. if you watch him, does these for hours to get these numbers. i don't know what he did there. >> he's drawing you. that's you. >> my numbers are there. 2025 which i thought it would stop on the upside and went right through. that becomes support and the upside is the may high which was 2134, and we find ourselves at the lower end of that range so we breech at 2025, gets interesting and if this things starts to levitate higher i think 2135 is in the forecast. >> let's face, it we've been in the range of 18300s to the lows to 2100 since october of 2014. there's very little to break you out of that. corporate earnings won't do that. the fed, if anything, i think is a risk to volatility. the next level to me is around 1950. with earnings coming out there's a chance that we could ultimately test that and ultimately stuff starts to get oversold.

>> still drawing. >> well, i'm amazed by that. >> extraordinary. >> yeah. >> so, well, for me, you know, listen, i err on the side of 1800 given my bearish view of what's going on corporate-wise. >> shocker. >> exactly. look at what happened in copper today and oil being higher didn't seem to impact the market so i think you sell the rips in this area. >> up next, how many rubber bands does it take to blow up a watermelon. the answer could hold the key to the future of old and new media. we'll explain, plus in case you missed the rally and in honor of the latest spacex launch we've got four stocks ready to blast off to new heights. we'll give you the name and later bank earnings are on deck and one of our traders sees trouble in one name in particular. we'll tell you what that is when "fast money" returns. and that in a new house, you probably don't share the same tastes as the previous owner. ♪ [ dolphin chatters ]

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not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "fast money." check out this video. now, this was a live stream that buzzfeed had up on facebook just a few hours ago. at its peak it had about 800,000 people watching it live. by the end the video had a total of 2.3 million views as buzzfeed staffers placed rubber bands around the watermelon waiting for it to explosion. saw the explosion. for the record, in case you're

wondering took 679 rubber bands. is facebook winning the live video war? tim? >> yes. very clearly based upon today. i mean, i wasn't tuned in. i had better things to do. >> fascinating. >> sti field, people. >> talking about facebook and how much of an advantage they have both in terms of time spent on air, in terms of the digital ad space and in terms of, again, advertisers feeling like they have the most bang for the buck, that's great. the quarter for them going into the numbers is a time to be a little cautious. the comps are extremely difficult and the revenue trends and the channel checks, things tell me we're going into a period where everything is flying high. long-term story very many intact but i don't think we need to own into numbers. >> i think we you had a to do our own "fast money" rubber band test in times square. >> here's the thing. is it facebook streaming or is it the fact that america wants

to watch a watermelon blow up? gallagher made a whole career out of it. >> who? >> gallagher. >> you have him on vhs. >> that's what all the viewers said. >> gallagher, wow. i guess the point in this is 3 million viewers, had almost 300,000 comments so if you can create content, certainly the eyeballs are there. we've known that. the question then is they have done a great job of monetizing it, but is this the future? >> why isn't alphabet? why don't they still own video and maybe they still do and maybe it's facebook's to take, but youtube should be the real winner in this and i think somehow it's getting lost in the shuffle. i do believe you posed the question to tim when you started off this questioning that facebook definitely has that leadership role. yield to them. >> is it a little too late for alphabet? what do you say? >> i don't own it right now. thinking of buying it again because it's basically going unnoticed here. it's not the time for the stocks. i think people are still

searching for yield, but when it does come barks i think youtube is the real crown jewel. >> i love -- >> "willy wonka and the chocolate," the original win with gene wild, oompa-loompa and mike-tv was being blasted. >> like that. like to. >> there are people at home right now doing this. yeah, he's right because that's exactly what the oompa-loompa looks like. that's trade school. see that? >> there you go. >> april 27th, they report. i don't think 35 times forward earnings is expensive for facebook. instagram, what's app, who took down the numbers doesn't matter. i think the stock goes higher. >> 649th rubber band. >> whoa. >> gets me every time. >> from bursting watermelons to talking about bursting bubbles. >> do it again. >> it's on video. you can replay it. janet yellen speaking on a panel last night alongside ben

bernanke and paul volcker on the economy. >> we think it's partly transitory influences, namely declining oil prize and the strong dollar that are responsible for pulling inflation below the 2% level we think is most desirable, so i think we're making progress there as well, and -- and this is an economy on a solid course, not a bubble economy. >> do you buy into that? >> no. listen, her definition of transitory is different than mine and her definition of a solid course when their own gdp is at 0.4%, to me i don't see that as solid footing but perhaps she does. she also think it's an extraneous dollar and oil that is causing all these things but it was their actions that started this, the catalyst for these things to move so i think they are living in la la land. >> until the labor market fams apart and easy to say backward look, if you look at the

services economy it's adding jobs. i know what's going on with the manufacturing economy and in fact it's shedding jobs and it's not a very impressive thing. we know inventories are high and know we've got downgrades of the first quarter gdp, but if i look at global gdp after downshifting by the u.s. and japan i actually think global gdp is 3% to 3.5% and moving higher. we are not in a rapid acceleration and it's interesting. what do we mean by bubble? brian might say bubble might just be a global economy that's reliant upon infused liquidity leading to other types of bubbles and that's fair. if anything, this economy is not one that you're accuse of actually getting too hot and in fact the ned is longing for more inflation. i think they are getting it, and i think commodity prices are telling you something and i think the way miners are reacting is telling you something, so as you know i don't believe that this economy is about to fall off a cliff and i think it's lower below trend growth than people want and until that labor market falls apart it's holding up. >> if they are as data sensitive

as it would be they would be raising rates as they speak. everything that they talked about is in line where they want, it less inflation, and you can make an argument that inflation is probably past the yardstick that they set forward. the question asked is what are they scared of? what do they see? >> the last time they raised the stock market came in 13%. >> shouldn't care about the stock. >> they care about china, shouldn't care about that either. if they were data dependant to your point should have raised two years ago. >> exactly. >> they should care about china because their actions impact everybody. they are the central bank of the world. they happen to on different days decide what they really care about which makes it confusing for investors. >> one thing i would say about the bubble. i don't think we're in a bubble economy. not close at all. when things are frothy, just because we're not in a bubble economy doesn't mean that things can't get worse. >> if the fed should have raised two years ago or recently, then isn't that telling me that the economy is doing a lot better than people think. i don't really understand.

>> can't have it both ways. >> back then when they were worried about china and china didn't implode the world was on a different footing. didn't have china collapsing. you can't right now when we're waiting for china to stabilize now all of a sudden start raising rates. >> you would be hiking because you think the economy is better and can actually support a rate hike. >> i guess we're going to the break. >> if they are going to invermont the yield curve -- >> coming up, retail has been a rough ride and a brutal week for some of the biggest names in the space. one of our traders says it's about to get a lot worse. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. meantime, here what else is coming up on "fast." >> we have liftoff. >> we've got liftoff all right, and if you missed the rally no need to fear because we've got four stocks ready to blast off and take your portfolio to brand new heights. plus, talk about a bank job. >> this is a robbery. >> we've got a way to make money on the financials even if they

go up, down or nowhere at all, and we'll explain when ""fast money" returns. margaret and tom lee. the championship game ball? that was sebastian diaz. good guy. and all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. their life savings is now my lifestyle. female announcer: don't let someone else live the life you're saving for. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov.

welcome back to "fast money." spacex is launching its first mission to the international space station since its rocket

exploded in june. just moments ago we go to jane wells live near the launch. jane. >> reporter: melissa, it's a spectacular day for spacex. i'm going to do this story backwards. i'm going to show you what happened after the launch first. we show the video for the first time, spacex was able to successfully land the first stage booster on a floating barge at sea. they have tried four times before and failed. this time they nailed it. it wasn't the guy a bullseye but it landed upright on a drone ship they have named of course i still love you based on a novel that musk apparently likes. one of the reasons they reconfigured this rocket to be more powerful, has 100 million pounds of thrust, not so much to go up but to bring it back down, a part of it back down, but it did go up as we show you the other video of the launch. it was the first time this newer reconfigured larger falcon 9 rocket has gone back to the international space station, the first time it has carried the dragon space capsule with it inside or 250 experiments.

p 7,000 pounds of cargo, supplies and experiments. the most interesting thing of all a $3,100-pound foldable tent habitat built by extremely wealthy developer robert bigelow in las vegas. it's called the beam. it will attach to the space station. they are going to expand t.nasa has never done that before, and over the next two years it will have air inside. astronauts will occasionally go in there and see what they think about it because the goal is to sort of have these expand al livable habitats eventually. it will be a lot cheaper if you can keep them lighter and they can collapse but they have to test it. again though dragon is on its way to the space station. it will get there sunday, and it will take about a monday to expand the bomb, the module, but it's also right now spacex boats are going out to get that booster. they have to see what kind of condition it's in. will he fly it again? he's said before he might keep the first one for a museum piece, though he already has another one he land on land so

we'll have to see. back for you. >> jane wells, thank you. in honor of the liftoff and final trades we thought we'd have the traders give us the stocks that they think about about to blast off? tim? >> the only thing can i think of is something in the commodities space, mitchell steel, mtl free cash flow positive and i'm not saying that this is a slam dunk. i'm saying this has more upside because of their business. >> grasso? >> bank of america and merrill lynch believe they don't have a shot at any em & a activity. i believe they do have a shot. the stock is up 60% off its recent low. heim long that and i'm long palty, an m & a candidate. an adult swim and wear a $14 stop. >> i like how grasso wears a tire. >> gdx, last may stopped at 21

and feels like they can do it, why, blast off. gdx will get you done. >> bfrmt k.? >> for me it's going to be a failure to launch stock, wah, wah. >> consistent with my view. deutsche bank has not launched with the markets so you sell this one. >> that does it for us here on "fast." see you back here monday at 5:00. don't go anywhere. meanwhile, "options action" starts after this break. if you're going to make a statement... make sure it's an intelligent one. ♪ the all-new audi a4, with available virtual cockpit. ♪ hey, jesse. who are you? i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. vern from voya? yep, vern from voya. why are you orange? that's a little weird. really? that's the weird part in this scenario? look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement.

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hey there. we're live at the nasdaq market site. these guys getting red for the big show. while they are doing that. here's what's coming up. ♪ ♪ i think i'm turning japanese, i really think so ♪ >> and that could be a problem for u.s. stocks, but we'll tell you how you can profit, plus remember those cool gap ads? >> i know you like your outfits stylish and any other line but the gap is childish. >> traders have fallen into the gap and it could signal a much bigger trend for retail and we've got the trade. >> that's what traders are asking about rate, but it's setting up for a perfect