expectation. packaging, equipment and construction, all of it was in line. only thing that was weak was truck, not a surprise. >> and the call is about to begin. thank you so much for joining me. "closing bell" is finished and "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts right now. welcome to the site overlooking times square. tonight on fast, buyer be wear. this could be the most dangerous time for the market according to a top technician. he'll be here to explain. and a metal has caught attention. we'll explain what that is. and later according to a new explosive survey, 77% of apple watch users love the product, but the majority of americans think it's a failure. so what is independent will the disconnect and what could it

mean for the stock. but first, while alcoa may be grabbing the headlines right now, one sector will determine the next move for the markets and that is the financials which saw a decent bounce today after a brutal start to the year. what matters most to investors and the big banks, what do you do heading in to the most crucial earnings season yet? guy. >> you ask yourself, is the valuation compelling enough to get in ahead of earnings. a lot of people say yes. same amount of people will say the virn henvironment we find ourselves in, this will take a lot of time to figure out how to make money again and the yield curve continues to work against them. i heard a commercial today with bernie sanders talking about how he will break up the big banks. so a lot of rhetoric works against. is valuation compelling enough to get into the names? i say let them report first, see what happens and then try to buy them on the trough. >> on the valuation picture, that's a tricky thing. citi has not traded above book

value for five years. so at what point do you say maybe it's cheap for a reason? >> yes, but citi is so far below book value that even if it doesn't get back to there, there is still a lot of room to go. i'll be looking for -- we all know that net interest margins somewhere been up ter pressure. i think that will continue to be the case. i want to see what other kinds of revenue they can generate. also at some point it does make me nervous, the credit quality has been outstanding. probably the best we've ever seen. and at some point if that starts to turn, then i will begin to get nervous. because i think the valuation right here is cheap enough, i will hold them. they trade with small pes, they have lumpy earnings and people are expecting nothing great. we're okay with eh. >> and maybe the bar is so low -- >> i think that if there is any sector going into earnings season that has the potential to surprise to the up side, i would say it's the financials. p primarily because everybody

positions they're going to be awful. we all know about the flat yiel. you're starting to see deterioration in the sub plprim auto loan area. that could be the leading edge. so i would stay away from u.s. banks. i think they're more like utilities at best them trade one time books and maybe you get your earnings. that's fantastic. i would still be worried about the european banks. >> what do you say about the biggest sector? >> quality balance sheet, liquid assets. and to bk's point, if he's right and they go to just one times book, we should be owning citi, bank of america. a lot of names. because they are so low relative to where they should be trading if they were one times book. they're underbook. the yield curve will be a head independent. i think that continues to be a

is they were getting a lift. oil closed over 40. we had everything moving in the right direction. and the next thing you know, once oil closes, we start to fade. and as we faded, financial faded. just as quickly if not faster than any other sector. >> we were talking about this a little before the show. i didn't see anything in particular -- >> i would say earnings and concerns. i know alcoa is no longer the kickoff for earnings season, but we still consider to be. but as we get into earnings season, i think that sentiment again just stays very, very low right now because of the concerns of how are these guys going to make money. >> but look at some of the growth names, too, like facebook. a lot of tech names were down most of the day. so you did see this broad market rally in the morning, but the names that people have been hiding in, that was the thing that highlighted to me that the growth names, people seem to be getting out of tell from the get

go. >> so how does that set us up for financials which is already facing a lot of skeptics? >> i think people say this will be the trough quarter. not the kitchen sink, but a trough quarter. i don't know going forward how the environment will change that quickly. there is no ipo calendar seemingly. the trading environment is difficult to say the least. karen talked about the yield curve. that didn't seem to be getting any better. if anything, it's getting worse. so i don't think it's a one quarter thing. at a certain point people say they're too cheap. citi bank at 60% of book is pretty compelling, but the environment is difficult to navigate. >> and part of that is the regulatory environment. is wall street being vilified to the degree that there is that kind of overhang on the banks that we've seen this biotech?

>> it feels like that to me. one thing i would look at is the economy has been improving and we talk about the balance sheets and a lot of different drivers. but home improvement is on the rise. loan growth could be something that they could lean on. but the liquid assets -- >> what do you like in financials? >> i think it depends on which part of the financial world you're in. long term, i still love because of what we were talking about valuation-wise, bank of america and citi. best in breed is still jpmorgan. it seems to be getting better and better and better and if the dollar continues to be on the weaker side of things, fx is no longer the headwind it was for masters and visa. >> which are you short? >> well, still the european banks. deutsche bank, i think that is probably the best short out there. but the dead unicorn trade, first republic, silicon valleys

bank, they both service that particular area. and then another area where all the risk is, mutual funds and etf s. so black rock is very -- >> explain what dead unicorn means. >> mass evaluation because of the potential that they might have. >> right. so like -- >> that's why i come on the show, i learn. >> all the unicorns are dying off. so you have to change the posters in your room. >> our next guest says buyer beware, this a dangerous time for stocks. what is so treacherous, rich, in the charts? >> well, the secret to success in any earnings season, it's not just about the earnings themselves but the expectations for those earnings. and it cuts both ways. the good news is the

expectations have come down 7.9% year over year. the bad news is the chart of the s&p reflects the fact that the bar has moved lower. let's look back in time. you see coming out of the august flash crash, we get a 13% pral rally. first quarter, we know how the year started. and then we have the furious rally in into the end of the quarter and it brings us right back to where we fell oof the cliff there. so the expectation for earnings have come down, but prices have moved up. so the bar is actually still very high. now, one sector where those earnings estimates, expectations, have come down the most, energy. down 100% from the fourth quarter of last year. now, the chart has made some vivid strides here. but the 200 day moving average which has held back here to 201, and importantly we failed right in there just around this time last year.

we failed here again. so once again, big test here for the energy sector. what is driving that? obviously crude oil and the chart displays a viking simg t symmetry. 200 day, big move off the ebobom the, but we fail. so you have to look for a break above 2900 day in the underlying to drive xle. now, here's where it gets interesting. you mentioned that financials, the banking stocks hold the key to the earnings season perhaps the direction of the market going forward. and that is bad news. we look at the chart of the bkx here. we have a breakdown from a three year comp what happens here, we get the throwback into that prior support which becomes resistance and we fail miserably, down 14% year to date on the bkx and that's a problem. so what is behind the banking stocks? your yields. this is your 2% level and you've been moving lower.

lower yields are bad for stocks, bad for bank stocks. in an environment like this, you want to be buying bond proxies like utility, telecom, staples, not bond traders like morgan stanley and goldman sachs. >> so what the bottom line? because we've had a powerful rally without outperformance by the financials, we've had participation but not outperformance. so i'm wondering what you think is a takeaway from all of this. >> i think we're seeing some clear signs of trend exhaustion. we have markets that have finished on their lows even as crude oil has grown 9%. so once again, 14% move off of the lows, we're transitioning into a period of historically weak seasonality. we're facing the potential for brexit. so you have all sorts of fears at the tail end of a very strong advance. important sectors like the banks lagging. that's not where you want to be.

>> rich, thanks so much. how concerning is it that energy seems to be facing the most head winds and that has been the gainer? >> and so we see it over the last two weeks or so where energy came off the last two days. oil has been doing very well. but that has been one of the reason why is we've had all these problems particularly the banks. if you start to see oil come off again, that will be an issue for the financials. you'll probably see those go down there. the one thing that i want to add also to what rich was saying, look at some of the international stocks like the bett dax and nikkei. the s&p 500 looks like the last man standing. >> do you think that the s&p and the oil market has uncoupled from where it was two months ago? >> well, it hass euncoupled, bui think it will recouple. it can goes back to the dollar.

we have a little bit of reverse on the dollar today. but if we get a strong dollar, no reason why oil shouldn't go below $20. >> there is a big meeting on sunday, thinks it will be a disaster. it was a few months ago, as well. kildoff thinks below 20 bucks. ovx up 3.5%, that is sort of a decoupling. other things that give me concern, transports rolling over. go gold market is stubbornly strong. >> gold has been strong and i think when you talk about oil, are we in this new range. sort of feels like this to me. i don't know if i can say the upper end is 42, but we close over 40 once again and it seems like 37 seems to be a tough area to block and get through. now, to rich's point, the xle is banging up against this level. if oil can actually get through

and start trading and closing above 40 for multiple day, we might find ourselves in a new spot and we might see the s&p start -- >> in anticipation now or do you wait? >> i think you have to trim into it because the fact the resistance is there. >> up next, alcoa falling despite an earnings bead. could it spell more trouble ahead. the lats lines from the conference call. and the market is predicting new jersey mohuge moves for three dn stocks. we'll tell you which one they are. and there is another commodity quietly making new highs. and it has dennis garvin very excited. the call just came in. she's about to arrive. and with her, a flood of potential patients. a deluge of digital records. x-rays, mris. all on account...of penelope. but with the help of at&t, and a network that scales up and down

on-demand, this hospital can be ready. giving them the agility to be flexible & reliable. because no one knows & like at&t. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. and in syracuse, where imagination is in production. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov imagine if the things you bought every day earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. with the united mileageplus explorer card, you'll get a free checked bag, 2 united club passes... priority boarding...

and 30,000 bonus miles. everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. the united mileageplus explorer card. imagine where it will take you. billions are spent to confuse and, dare i say it, flummox the american public. "save 16% on car insurance." "switch now..." well at compare.com, we say enough's enough. so we constantly scrutinize millions of rates... answering the question once and for all, who has the lowest. just go to compare.com and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest, and hit purchase. so you can get back to whatever it is you civilians do when you're not thinking about car insurance. compare.com

welcome back. we have a news alert on juniper. susan. >> juniper network falling over 6% in after hours, saying first quarter results will be below guidance due to weak demand. they say the company sees first quarter revenue of 1.09 billion to 1.10. and 35 to 37 cents per share.

originally they had guided for 45 cents. back to you. >> thank you so much. and we're also watching shares of cisco. they're down by about 1.3% on the back of this news. >> yeah, just to elaborate a little more, weaker demand, but they also talked about about timing issues in the u.s. and middle east asia. so i don't know it we'll see that in subsequent quarters. that could be mitigating a little bit. but a meaningful miss top line and bottom line. >> seems to now take "the quan" dumb leap. juniper is not that expensive a stock. i think it trades 11.5, 12 times forward earnings. but you might want to take a look. and this is a quantum leap now. but i wonder what this if anything means for ibm and their quarter coming up. i want to say in a week and a half or so. >> cisco trading 27.25. it has a 3.8% dividend yield.

>> you don't like the valuation levels. everything we've heard going into this, this could be just juniper specific. maybe it's more just directly towards what their end user is. but they're talking about weaker demand from the enterprise. i think cisco is far more grand and i don't know that -- i would buy s s buy cisco on any pull back. >> let's get to under arrest mower oig falling out of better after sloweding sales. maintaining their underweight rating on the stock and weighing heavily on jordan spieth's meltdown on the 12th hole. under armour reports next thursday. >> so if it was just because of jordan sait, you probably buy. but what morgan stanley highlighted here was that their

women's apparel division isn't doing as well as they thought. so they're saying about 20% of earnings or earnings growth will come from the women's apparel. there is a lot of competition out there right now. so to me, i actually do think there is a good call on morgan stanley's part and i would take some profits. i think there is too much competition. >> there is nike, lululemon, every other single designer brand seems to have its own line of athleisure. >> i think foot locker which was hit hard on this i think is so far overdone. foot locker sells under armour as well as nike, more nike than anything. but to have it trade net of cash about 11 and change times versus the under armour multiple seems ridiculous and overdone. >> so when you hear about under armour and women's apparel, it

doesn't make you concerned about foot locker? >> i think the stock expresses excessive concern versus what i think will actually happen. >> i wear athleta bottoms and tops. what do they call them? >> interesting, because they only make women's wear. but wear whatever you want. >> it's snug. >> so the problem with selling under armour, now you're getting shortages have been growing i think north of 30% and it trades now i think away 25, 26 types forward earnings. i think you wait, hope morgan stanley is right buy it on the dip. shorts will get squeezed after earnings 37. >> so the market share thing, i haven't heard other folks really talking about this, so it's pretty interesting morgan stanley talking about loss of market share. the shoe part of the business is phenomenal. growth of 95% was massive fp

only 17% of what they actually come doing in terms of sales. so you just wonder are they going in the right direction and where are they losing. if they're lose to go anybody, i have to think it's lululemon. they have made a massive comeback. well over 60 plus today and it actually pulled off with this sentiment was bad, but i'd keep an eye on that one, as well. when you look in the online sales and growth, i think lululemon is a buy on the pull black. coming up, tesla's warning for its model x drivers, could it have implications on the stock. we'll hear from fim are a bow in a special report. you're watching "fast money." >> money will always be paper, but gold will always be gold. >> that might be the case, but it's another metal that the commodities king says you should be watch position about he'll tell you what it is. plus -- ♪

three down stocks could hold the key to where the market goes next. the names and how you can profit when "fast money" returns. [beekeeper] from bees to business expenses,

i'm in charge of it all. so i've been snapping photos of my receipts and keeping track of them in quickbooks. now i'm on top of my expenses, and my bees. best 68,000 employees ever. that's how we own it. ♪ i could get used to this. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. ♪

welcome back. take a look at alcoa. it is lower in the after hours to the tune of 3.7%. susan li has all the details. >> i think the main takeaway from alcoa's earnings was a miss in revenues for the quarter which means that the beat and profit owes more to cost cutting than actual sales. part of the cost cutting has been layoffs confirming that they did reduce their workforce by 600 in the first quarter, planning further of 400 and also considering laying off another 1,000. when it comes to global demand, alcoa is revising down the demand broadcast, heavy truck production. the ceo was just on "closing bell" and let's listen into what he had to say. >> if you look at this quarter, you really see profits are up in all of the iconic segments. iconic is the name that we've given to the value add company that we would soon launch. and at the same time, you also

see on the commodities side the two segments are holding up in spite of the very strong pressure on the market side with low prices. >> so the ceo there reaffirming that the split will still happen in the second half of this year. still not confirming a specific date, though. alcoa shares have been down so far in the year. trading closer to the seven year lows. we have lifted off the bottom. and we're a it wwaiting the res and business wire calling it a power outage at a third party co-location facility for this. and right now saying they cooperate put the results up in time. back to you. >> that's odd, a power outage at a third party -- the point of having co-locations, that is a backup system of some sort. but moving away from that, what does this say in terms of the transports? we saw for the just a rollover in general, but within today's

session, as well. they're saying that demand in aerospace and heavy trucking is not good. >> that's fine, but we seemingly in a golden age -- pete talks about lockheed martin. defense stocks since '09 have been on fire. phil lebeau will be on later. we're having historic numbers. so we're arguably the best environmental company a has ever seen for the products that they make and a stock has gone sideways to slightly higher. there is something wrong there that i can't put my finger on. it split up the company. go at it. i don't know if that mixes anything. if you have a lousy ham sandwich and you cut it in half, you just have two lousy ham sandwiches. >> i'd rather have thundershono. >> it was down whatever percentage in the first part of the year and then the last quarter and it's rocketed to the up side. why? seems to me like there has been a lot of areas in the term space where you're seeing material

stocks take have been moving to the occupy side. is a lot of that based upon anything other than short covering? i said say no. a lot of that is short covering and it's not actually about what they're to go. klaus sees profits in all these different area, but you look underneath and you see they did this many cuts and this many cut and all of a sudden revenue comes in as a miss. it seems that this is a very difficult business right now for them. >> should we worry about materials in general? >> what i need to know from the alcoa report, they revised down growth. that's it. they revised down demand globally. that is the story of the global economic slowdown. that's all you need to know. so i would be worried about materials in general. >> and where does that put us in terms of the overall markets? these are some of the groups that -- >> back to the ham sandwich thing, that was more of a stock

split, the ham and the bread. so i don't know if the downstream is to go better -- >> so stellar bread but lousy ham. >> it is somewhat disconcerting to have the growth down. i would have thought over the quarter it maybe would have started lower and ended higher. >> this is why it's always good to have you on the desk. >> bread is important. you get good bread, it could make up for lousy ham. >> if you don't know what the bread is valued at, then you don't know what it's worth. >> tonight has been an education. still ahead, tesla has a big warning for its model x owners and it could have majorism pli indications for the stock. and later, silver is hitting new highs, but is it a better buy than gold. a precious metal debate royale after the break. 's security - and flexibility. it's where great ideas and vital data are stored.

with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions from a trusted it partner. including cloud and hosting services - all backed by an industry leading broadband network and people committed to helping you grow your business. you get a company that's more than just the sum of it's parts. centurylink. your link to what's next.

do you have the courage to stay up all night? because this is our time! the greatest tv week of our lives!

ladies and gentlemen, in the business of binge-watching, sleep is for the week! so i want you ready to order takeout, every single night! now are you with me? to awesomeness! to watchathon!! big is back. xfinity watchathon week starts april 18. the greatest collection of shows free with xfinity on demand. welcome back. down day on the street with

losses accelerating into the close. the dow gave up a triple digit gain. s&p 500 once again negative on the year and all major indices closed next session lows. here is what is coming up. gold is surging, but dennis garvin is turning to another metal. plus it's the three down stocks that could shake up the market. but first, tesla shares fell sharply from its intra day highs on news that the company plans to recall 2700 model x suvs with defective third row seats abou. phil lebeau has the latest. >> it's not a huge recall, but it's significant because it's the first one and represents one of the big concerns that investors have when it comes to tesla. that you add more complexity and therefore you start to have more recall. let's talk about what tesla announced today. this recall involves the third row seats for the model x suv.

the latch on those third rows on the back of the seat, it may fail in certain accidents. again, 2700 vehicles. owners until the seat backs are fixed are being asked not to use the third row. seat backs will be replaced by the manufacturer. they will cover the cost. and those repairs will take about five week. tesla says the recall will not impact model x production. that's one reason why we sae saw a bit of the drop in the share, but it wasn't a fall off the cliff type of drop during the day. and when you look at model s and model x production, this is the big concern. they built 14,000 or delivered 14,820 vehicles in the first quarter. most of those being the model x. 24 of the model x. they still believe they did deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 vehicles this year. mainly the holgd model s, but also model x. and tesla today said it does not

expect any impact on its financials because of this recall. nonetheless when you add complexity to manufacturing, this is when you start to have more recalls pop up. and that's what we're seeing right now at least with the model x in this recall. >> phil, you've been covering tesla for a long time. does it strike you as early for them to say that there will be no impact on full year results? tesla has on so many occasions remimded investors that any glitch with the x could impact s numbers coming off the line. >> no, it doesn't strike me as being soodd. one, the manufacturer of the seat backs is covering all of the repair costs. and in terms of the number of vehicles being fixed, it's 2700. most of those are in the united states. they will take care of that over the next couple week. buts he's such a small number and they could make the change because manufacturing scale is so limited right now with the

model x that it's unlining to have a huge lingering impact. therefore, you can extrapolate that automatic over the course of a quarter or a year and it really won't have a huge impact. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau on tesla for us. how does how the stock traded today educate us on the strength of the recent rally we've seen in tesla? i was on the air at 1:00 when the news crossed and i thought immediately that that sort of news would be at least an excuse to sell off the massive rally that we've seen. >> this stock has come from well underneath 180 all the way up to these levels. citron talking about this is a great short and we thought maybe they're right once again. but what is interesting to me, we keep saying it's only 2700. only 2700. how many xs have they even produced? >> well, almost every single x. >> so from a percentage standpoint, that has to be a little concerning. this is the second recall now for tesla, they had it in the s model on two different locations

back in '14 and again this past november. so it's just one more thing that makes you wonder about productivity. he with talk about we talk about it all time, how can they produce the model 3. they had 300,000 plus pre-order. how will they get those out there in time? seems like there are some issues along the production line still for tesla. >> it would seem if you open it here, you have to be very willing to take on delays. because the likelihood of there being no delays in that 325,000 car order is close to zero. and if you're close okay with that then you can own it. and that may be fine, but for me, way too rich. >> demand has never been a problem. so that's not in question. p what is this question is va e valuation and stock performance. since 140, it has been stellar. what concerns me at 250 is we trade up to 286 in the middle of

2014. up there again middle of last year. if we start to fail here, you have to be really careful. i think you're in no man's land here. i'd rather buy it on a breakout a little higher, meaning 290 or so, or look for a pull back to $200. >> so today's action price action on this news makes me think that this is a stock you do not want to short at all. because if you can have what i call this bad news and it doesn't really react, there is something else going on here. so i agree it's no man's land in terms of a buy, but i would not run in front of it on a short. >> it is the report that has the street talking and not in a good way. a massive survey found most americans think the apple watch is a dud. if that's the case, why are apple watch owners so happy? plus what did ibm, caterpillar and mcdonald's have in common? they could determine the market's next move. we'll tell you why when "fast money" returns. .

by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. and by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on long-term value. we actively manage with expertise and conviction. so you can invest with more certainty. mfs. that's the power of active management. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, these let you choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. you're not stuck in a network, because there aren't any. plus, these plans help cover some of the part b medical expenses medicare doesn't pay. so why wait? call now to request your free decision guide and find the aarp medicare supplement plan

that works for you. like all medicare supplement plans, you'll be able to stay with the doctor or specialist you trust, or look for someone new - as long as they accept medicare patients. but unlike other plans, these are the only ones of their kind endorsed by aarp. rates are competitive. so call today. and learn more about choosing the doctor's you'd like to see. go long. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers.

accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of the at&t network, a network that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. welcome back. gold hitting a near three week high, but another precious metal has caught the eye of dennis gartman. you're looking at silver.

>> well, i look at silver because i think silver in a proceed frakted bull market, it will gain upon gold. there are things that you can count on in this world. your mom loves you, don't hit it to the right on 12 this augusta and bull market, silver will gain on gold. the ratio will fall. it had gotten about 80, 81, 82 ie 80, 81, 82 ounces of silver necessary to buy an ounce of gold. that should probably make its way back down into the low 20s over some period of time. that would seem to tell me that if you're going to trade metals, trade silver from the bullish side. it's far too volatile for me to trade it. i'll be a buyer of gold. but watch silver relative to gold in a bull market, silver gains mondupon gold, the ratio

fall. it's a good indicator of the internal pagemakeup of the prec metals themselves. >> and we're showing the spike just after 2008 or so. so what does it mean in terms of your view of u.s. stocks right now, does that make you more confident that this protracted rally can continue? >> it really doesn't speak much to the u.s. stock market. bull markets in metals tend not to be co-extensive with equities. bull markets and silver tend to be co-expensive with bear markets in the equities market. but the way the gold/silver ratio has begun to top out as you saw in the previous chart, about 82, here it is in the high 80s today, it actually closed to down below 80, that tells me there is something bullish developing and you should err upon the side of owning the precious metals if ear an active

speculator, if you have the urge to do it, silver probably will do better than gold. but as i said, i'll leave to the young guys. >> bk is erring. >> well, dennis at one point told gentlemen don't trade silver or oats. but my question is, i'm curious where you're seeing the demand. is it the tail here or is it fundamentally going on in the silver market and supply demand balance? >> i'm bemused as to why silver that as strong because it is an industrial metal plus a precious metal and the major demand had always been in photography. and these days ipads have taken over from kodak everywhere and will continue to do so. so the demand is probably less than i would like to have it. nonetheless, history has shown

me in bull markets be long silver, be short gold. as itched, i said, i'm going to from the long side and use the ratio as an indicator the as the why not bullish trend of the precious metals in and of themselves. >> dennis, great to see you. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. >> do you know who was on this four weeks ago? bk said look at silver. i will say this, i think the reason people are buying silver is because gold is such an up trend, people are scared that gold is getting away, they're going to the next best trade. this to me is more bullish for gold than it is for silver. and look at the way gold has performed recently. >> meaning -- >> i don't know what the ratio will do, but i think gold is in a bull up trend. up next, could this be the most polarizing product in america? apple watch owners love it, but the general public hates it.

so what gives. and what doresults of a fascinating survey next. show me movies with romance.

show me more like this. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity.

welcome back. to get checking e-mail from your wrist. a new survey indicates that the apple watch's greatest feature may be its ability to polarize u.s. consumers. dawn, this is based on a survey. a majority of adults who responded, most of them said that they thought it was a flop. why? >> you know, that reflects a lot of the pessimism that we matter honk the among the people in the tech industry. there have been a number of of criticisms, among them are that the device is expensive and it's not terribly useful. >> so do we dismiss this view because it's from tech industry

insiders or do we put more credence into it? >> the survey itself was a prood survey of some 2600 people who seem to reflect some of the pessimism we hear here in silicon valley. but as the survey dug deeper and looked at people who actually ownen a apple watch, 77% considered it a success and more than 60% said that they would buy the next generation watch once it's veil. so the survey results are a little more nuanced than they appeared on their face. >> this is karen. for the iphone owners, what percentages go you think they would say about how happy they are with the product and whether they would buy the new one? >> well, it's certainly -- you need an iphone at this moment at least to use an apple watch, although perhaps in future generations the device will operate without 2450eding to be tethered to your phone to fully

work. interestingly, people found one of the strongest feature, those who like the apple watch, its strongest features are its convenience. the aubility to get the notifications. this turns out to be one of its strongest selling points. >> when i first read the results and i agree that they are nuance results, it seemed to me that the people who are really in to this watch have already bought one and it will be a much hard ir climb to get people who don't have a watch to buy one. what is your takeaway? >> well, it's an interesting question. a small percentage of people have the apple watch. best guess is because apple certainly isn't saying is somewhere around 12 million of these devices were sold throughout last year. so within the first nine months of product introduction. and that seems like a miniscule number. but remember back to when the iphone was introduced back in 2007, apple only sold 6 million

of those. so by comparison, this is somewhat of a successful product for apple. >> all right. dawn, we'll leave it there. thanks for your time. how do you perceive this survey? >> you know, i look at it and i was one of the biggest bashers. and now i understand what theed a don'ters are thinking. they like it, a lot of folk takes are using it. but she mentioned it, too. when it's not tethered, i think that will make a big difference some day. but how about the international market? one of the things that i've been looking at more and more is india as a potential huge growth factor. what about india and china in terms of the watch. i bet you if we pull down what the real numbers are for the watch right now, we wouldn't see much in the international market. >> if it were untethered. >> right. and that could be a huge growth driver into the future. >> but then i handling that would be huge cannibalization. >> it could be.

i'm not so sure that this isn't just more of a luxury and a convenience and i don't know that necessarily it always completely replenishing the device itself. >> one, i think the survey is a bit self selecting. where if you bought the watch, you probably already like the watch, right? so 77% of you feel good about yourself. look, i bought this watch. i'd buy another one. so in that sense, i'm not sure i would read much into buying apple on this. it doesn't seem like the watch is going to be that killer product that apple is still continually looking for. >> but i'm long all that having been said. >> it's an iphone. >> i have a birthday coming up if you want to think of a fis watch for me, apple watch. december. >> why do you look at me when you say that? >> in case you were thinking about what to get guy to his birthday.

>> what do you think i would do with an iwatch? >> you'd shake it. how does it work, how do he rehe wind it? let's turn our attention back to earnings. three down stocks in the next week, and mike khouw has tonight's option action. >> so it was interesting, i've been taking a look at the implied moves and many don't have above average moves, but three notable did. caterpillar, ibm and mcdonald's. ibm and caterpillar both implying a move of 4.5% and mcdonald's about 3.2%. we're talking about a move of about $6.7 billion for ibm, $2 billion for caterpillar and 3.7 for mcdonald's. and all three have things going on individually that make them particularly interesting to look at. >> i'm going to put you on the spot, but i know you can handle

this question. for those three stocks, because the implied moves are either up or down, what is your guess? >> well, so this is interesting. of course caterpillar in particular dealing with the commodity super cycle, i think that stock was quite depressed. i make a bet to the up side. ibm, i'm having a hard's s seei how they are fixing. all call down. and mcdonald's, all day breakfast seems good, so i'll go up. >> ibm has had a pretty decent run. as has caterpillar are. the one that i would be most optimistic about is mcdonald's. >> agree. >> yeah, you know, what you got to go with the mcdonald's. it's had a nice breakout here. i don't know if it will move 4% on earnings, but on a pull back, that would be a name that you would look at.

>> big fans of mike khouw here. mike, thank you. >> "options action" friday, 5:30. >> thank you. >> sorry, go ahead. oh, i did it all right. >> we'll have the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.

♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ it's more than a nit's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions,

including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. serena williams. hi watson. you are a fierce competitor. i've heard that. i have analysed your biggest matches. oh really? when down a point, you serve an ace 5.8 times more than other top players. you sound like a coach. i am not. but i can customize training programs based on biomarker data. watson, that's pretty impressive. you might say i am the serena williams of cloud-based cognitive systems. nah, i wouldn't go that far.

thousanow for a little fast not least. you may be familiar with the "squawk box" feature taking the internet by storm. everyone is getting in on it, so we decided to have a little fun of our own. take a look at brian mixing it up with guy. and then of course there is pete and karen. >> oh, my god, that's awful. >> and finally, that is me and guy by the way. >> wow. >> if we could have put a warning up, we apologize. >> just watch the show, man. that is like nightmares. can't unsee that. >> time for the final trade. >> last week paper in ibm. i'm going to say ibm will go

higher. >> that is terrible. i still like gold. i think it goes higher. >> citi cheap he weer of all. >> cisco. >> thanks for watching. see you [ bell ringing ] my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. i spent the weekend in new orleans, saw a lot of nice people. nearly everyone i met wanted to know what makes me feel positive about a market where