first. >> everyone, thanks for joining us. mike, thank you so much for sitting with us. that does it for "closing bell" on a week where finally we saw the sectors positive. it was a tougher slog last week. we head into a big weekend. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" on this friday does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. traders, tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight on "fast" if you missed the move in the banks we over got the next group of stocks that could soon surge higher. the traders will break it down. plus, you think earnings will matter to stocks? our own steve grasso says it's something else that can determine the market's next move. what that is and the one dow stock that could see a new all-time high next week, the name and how to play it. first, we start off with what could be a troubling sign for tech. apple shares falling on reports it's cutting iphone production in light of sluggish sales. is apple signaling trouble for tech as we head into a big week

for earnings, and the reason why we really hone in on this is because of the move intraday and the impact on the supply chain even though there were already reports that there were problems with the suppliers. so another fall on today's session. >> with the reports, seen reports like this before and they have proven to be incorrect, and you've seen the stock act completely the opposite in the weeks to follow, meaning the stock has rallied. what scares me more about tech is not the apple necessarily, the comments we heard from juniper earlier this week and the comments from seagate. i don't want to try to connect the connects, but what does it mean for ibm? that's what concerns me about tech, not necessarily this apple news that we have seen in the past. >> okay. >> but i don't think we're hearing -- if enterprise is the concern, i don't think we're hearing that out of intel. i realize intel has challenges in the pc market and there's other places in their business and not until we get it across the board. when i think about apple, also, talked about different levels of the stock. you know, i look at 111 on the stock and look trading back up

through the 200 day. this guy has done it three times in the last two and a half years and failed at two of the three so i think apple doesn't climb straight through, obviously reacting to headline news. again, guy is referring to the dialogue semiconductor news that we got a couple times out of germany being a leading indicator with what's going on with true apple demand. other parts of the emerging world aren't going to adopt like china has. it's very possible, but i think overreading this news today is absolutely crazy after a run in the stock we've had. >> you know, when tim points out the 200-day moving average haven't seen that level in apple or holding that level since october, november last year. >> right. >> so that's important and it's making a series of lower highs, so that is concerning, but i think we've been through this before, as guy kicked off the show. i think all of this stuff is sort of old. for me i'm in it and i'm looking to add actually on weakness. >> all right. what's your view? >> for me it's a bit concerning because i'm trying to connect the dots.

as a macro guy looking at the big picture. intel reporting on tuesday, so this sets up as a phenomenal catalyst, a great trading catalyst, particularly if you want to trade intel against it and you think there's a slowdown, the way intel is trading use 33 as your stop if you want to be short on that. the other thing i would say in general, remember at the end of last quarter, tim cook said something happened in the world we didn't really understand what was going on. now we're at end of this quarter, and it seems like maybe they haven't gotten out of that hole. we'll see what happens, but i would be concerned about this. >> i'm glad you brought that up actually because he said something to the effect of it was a sudden change in the last -- in the latest month, and here we are sitting on this nikkei report. again, this is a nikkei report, so we don't really know, you know, how -- it's not from the company, in other words. this nikkei report saying that they are cutting back production because of weaker demand for the iphones. >> it's interesting, you know, you wonder -- it sounds familiar to what bob iger said back in august about some. things that he was obviously

completely different business, but the landscape changed very quickly. you're saying that maybe the landscape is changing. i will say this. i agree with what tim is saying. i don't think you can say seagate juniper, tech is a wreck. ibm on monday and intel on tuesday. if those things start to fail then you can start connecting the dots as b.k. said. >> we're about 2.5% off the all-time highs on the s&p and the cows. gone through a week where financials came out as the best performing sector this week even though earnings were not in any way spotless, problems with every single earnings report that came out so does this set us up poorly in a way? >> think about what we have to deal with, this weekend. doha and imf world bank meetings, impeachment vote in brazil, rumors of a china policy statement that supported chinese shares this week despite the fact that data was bert out of china. yeah, it's not crazy to think markets could be pulling back next week. got an ecb meeting for a market that's is having to have some

positive suppression in the ecb and the fed the following week which you really should be preparing for. as i said, even though they are not going to go, not sure they will go in june. you don't have less fed going forward. you have more fed which equals more volatility. volatility has been too long. >> we'll talk about it a little bit in oil. when you look at the marketplace and the s&p and the price-to-earnings ratio, usually sell the price-to-earnings ratio when it gets to 18.5, 19 times on the s&p and buy it at 16.5, 17. we're right there. it is a trading range and i think it remains so. >> cautious going into this week, cautious going into next week? >> what makes me cautious, the one thing that i looked at and stuck out like a sore thumb, the ovx was up 10.5%, the all volatility, we said 44 was a critical level of support. it held. now, listen, crude did not sell off commensurate with a 10.5 move in the ovx but it's clear that people positioned themselves for something this sunday so that to me was somewhat worrisome but i understand what's going on. >> what do you do going into the next couple of weeks like we're

having? you're bearish, but do you keep the bear positions on? or do you pull back? >> i do, and the reason why, you've got a great risk reward. i can use the high of this week or last week as a stop for trading positions so i don't have much of a risk. i might have 1%, 2% risk to the upside, but if everything does fall apart, doesn't need to fall apart like i think it may, it could just be volatile because we have multiple events coming up, as tim mentioned. that could be enough just to have the market pull back 3% to 5%. >> 3% to 5% the next couple of weeks? >> rallied 10% in the next month so why not 3% to 5%, perfectly natural, normal. >> the one apple supplier that could mean -- that could be facing even more pain and could mean more pain for apple as well as the tech trade. earnings season now in high gear, as you know, and the highly anticipated opec meeting is this weekend. what matters more, oil or earnings? our ste grasso has the answer. >> he's grooving. get a little swagger. >> this is my wedding song.

>> fantastic. >> if you look at this, we talked about which matters more, earnings or oil, and i think this chart -- everyone talks about the correlation, but i think this chart really eskimoses it pretty well. if you look at this, we have oil here. you see back to the highs here, 2134. where was oil? 60.72 so you know that's what you're eyeballing there. i don't think we get there any time soon, but if you look here, you wind up seeing the leading, leading basically oil winds up leading the s&p. see this drops, the s&p, takes a little bit longer to drop. you see a little bit of a lag there. you see it rally. same type of thing so what we're shooting for in the s&p is this number right here. that's the real resistance because as we're climbing, when you look at the s&p, unless we breech or cross over this powerful enough then we make another high in the s&p cash.

we don't want to do this. this is all for not. focus in. where did you see oil? where did you see the s&p? 47.90. tim and i have had a long going debate whether or not we cross over the $50 mark in oil, i don't think we do so, so i think that's the lid on the market. i think that's the lid on oil, but you also have a hell of a trading range here to trade against. so if you want to look here. -ins the s&p cash. these are the numbers. key in on that. this is my most important number. that's flat on year, so if you don't have the stomach to watch this thing trade all the way down to the 200-day moving average. this is where you bail on the market, this is where you buy it unless we break through here. then you bail and you get b.k.'s market, and i think we visit 1865 again in the s&p if we breach the 200-day moving average 2014 to the downside. >> we trade against flat on the year up through 2116 or so. those are the bottom line levels. >> correct.

>> tim, where do you stand on that? mark go on yesterday saying we could go to 22100, but we usually trade, as grasso mentioned, to an s&p valuation of a pe of about 18 and so that's going to hold, so that's going to keep us from going much higher. >> look, i think the s&p is going to trade somewhat sideways from here. i think actually though the correlations are going to break apart because, you know, steve and i do disagree on oiler, and my word of the day is conlessens. said that three times. >> how many cs in there? >> coffin lessens which is recovery from a dreadful illness in the medical sense or really applied to anything and there's a slow gradual recovery. that's what's going on. >> spell is really quick. >> c-o-n- >> okay. it's a friday show. >> you're at a place, back to october of '09 on u.s. reit

counts. i agree 50 is a tough hurdle to come. i think it's not tethered to oil like it used to be. >> mentioned, down to 351. that's an incredible number which is very bullish for oil. listen, sunday to me it's a huge wild card and it's manifesting itself in the ovx which spiked today so i do think oil and the s&p will trade in unison for a while. >> yeah, for me, i absolutely think, that and, you know, if you look at, the rig count has dropped precipitously but production really hasn't. it started to a little bit but still kind of flat lined. off a million barrels a year ago and the rigs are and that they have on are pumping a lot of oil and the last time we even had production cuts from saudi arabia which was way back in the '80s, grasso remembers this time, but would i say when you look at what happened to oil and saudi production they went down together. they went down together, so i think oil goes lower, much

lower. >> all right. coming up next, did you miss the move in the banks? relax, because our guys say they may have found a group of stocks that could pleasantly impress investors and the one dow stock that traders are betting could see all-time highs as soon as next week and later, tax day is monday so we're giving you the four best stocks to buy with your refunds and the names might surprise you. we're back right after this. this car?

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i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "fast money." the financials posting lackluster results yet those stocks clocking in as the best performing sector this week so kicking off our top trades tonight we're asking if there were any other groups of stocks that the market is getting wrong and could see a similar surge next week. b.k.ers? >> it's not thursday and i'm going to do a throwback and talk about names we haven't talked about in a while, fertilizers stocks, particularly potash. take a look at what's going on in the grain and wheat and corn starting to form a bottom. potash bounced against 15. gotten completely crushed, but i think that's something you want to look to next week. >> a time on "fast money" when we used to talk about the fertilizer stocks every single night. >> and if it was -- we're be

doing two-for tuesday, mosaic is a place where core business -- food inflation to me i think is something that will catch the fed's eyes but meantime increasing headline inflation. a lot of these guys were priced for dead. the chart is very interesting. convalescence. >> it's four syllables and haiku. >> you can use it in a second line. got to use it in one or three. >> b.k. used a word, if you'll recall, what did he use before or anything i say. >> >> syllable. >> i forget. >> mcdonald's. >> the group is mcdonald's. >> they report on thursday, i believe, and i think people -- listen, this stock is in a whisper of all-time highs. timmy has talked about it for a while. a real good chance this stock continues to go to the next level. not a broken stock, but it's a stock that i think people continue to underestimate. next up, twitter, the social media giant broadening its reach

overseas announcing a new manager for china. the move also included a new twitter account dedicated to updates on the greater china market, very mysterious, tim. >> well, i don't know that this is anything big for the company underlying. they have hired a marketing head and the region is very important. international is now 35% of the business. a couple years ago it was only 15. twitter is growing internationally. the ability to stagnate different parts of the world, actually quite interesting because i can up my china list and the fact that they are recognizing the potential that this is truly a global platform, whether they are accepted in china or not, i don't think this matters. this is not i think something to go out and run and buy the stock for. still the same issues monetizing. advertisers whether they are here or there clearly still unsure of the underlying value and that's what will really turn the stocks. >> for a couple of night we've been running stories on how these guys on the desk use twitter to trade and the response has been absolutely

staggers and that those people don't know how to use twitter. they don't know how to use twitter to their advantage. >> right, and that's twitter's problem. they haven't done a great job at portraying them. >> and that's the problem with the stock, right, and in my view, if the twitter management focused on the couple hundred million users that they have, that love the product and want to use the product but doesn't really know how. >> guy and i have talked about it. >> exactly, don't grow it. >> should be focusing on the advertising arm. they are in search and google search now so a lot of times we've talkedbout it. >> tweaked that last night. you know what people said to me? >> you don't need to be logged in when you search on google. >> people don't know how to ice twitter. they didn't know tweet deck existed. >> i have a very difficult time. >> the little league guy. >> i got the twitter application on my phone now. >> you bought it in a box? >> yeah, it was a small box. >> did you put the disc in? >> did you download the flop? >> obviously this is nonsense that we're talking about. >> we have to decide.

it's a good product that we all love and seen other good products that this doesn't translate. >> doesn't make good investment. next up, car trouble, another bad sign for the auto industry. news that consumer sentiment fell which is a bad indicator for auto sales and also of note the chairman of fiat chrysler talking about a merger with any of the three big automakers in detroit. gm seemed to be conspicuously off that list, mentioned volkswagen, toyota and ford were potential candidates. grasso? >> in order is down 6% and gm is out of the picture and that's down basically 10% year to date and this one is down 18% year to date. is it a worth a flyer at $7.50? i think so. i think you can maybe bounce this thing to maybe 20% to the upside but you must bail out on the stock. it's a low-priced stock. if it trades below 7 it's a big move for a low-priced stock. i think you need to bail out of it, but i think it's worth the flyer because it's the most beat up and you get guys covering shorts with the potential of any

m & a. >> going back to the notion that sales, auto sales are showing cracks. already we know with a surge in problems with subprime loans about increased promotional activity and now we're seeing consumer sentiment tick lower and we picked this up up off of phil lebeau's twitter feed saying that this is historically correla correlated. >> the auto market is not just a u.s. market. it's a global market and the u.s. is no longer the biggest automarket in the world. china's auto sales this quarter, got concurrent data a couple days ago, up 8%. not every place is falling apart. certain places in europe are doing quite well. we're in a much more mature cycle and ford and gm reflect that but i don't think their business is dying. >> ford and gm could be bad with the economy. we're talking about m & a, still able to guy. >> still ahead, something usual is happening in shares of netflix ahead of earnings next week which has some traders scratching their heads.

what that is. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide and other what else is coming up on "fast." >> hoe me the money! >> we'll show you the money all right because we've got the four stocks to buy with your tax refund money right up to the deadline. >> hasta la vista, baby. >> hastra, all right. what one tech stock stuck in the mud is about to do. we'll tell you what the name is and how to play it for a major breakout. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. ♪ hey, jesse. who are you? i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. over time, your money could multiply. hello, all of you. get organized at voya.com. parts a and b and want more coverage,

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welcome back to "fast money." wait a minute. where did guy go? >> whoa. >> he was just here. >> went to the little trader's room. >> where's guy. >> wait a minute, wait a minute. >> where's my friend guy. >> there he is. there he is out in the middle of times square. guy? >> how did he get there? >> well, mel, i'm down here. i came out to times square. monday is tax day, today is like arbor day or something so they gave us the weekend. i'm going to ask folks in times square what they are doing with their refund. average refund is $3,100. did you file your taxes? what are you doing with that money. >> >> buying some designer shoes. >> i'm going to put some money towards my college tiegs and i'll probably go out and get a

good burger. >> pay off some bills. >> i'm going shopping. >> broadway shows. >> liked that in unison, what shows are you going to see? >> "wicked." >> i like that. didn't even rehearse. >> paid my dad back. >> what about investing in stocks. >> definitely. >> what stock would you invest in if it could be just one? >> google. >> what are you going to invest in? >> coca-cola. >> one of tim seymour's favorites. what do you think of tim seymour? >> um. >> you're speechless, as many women are. >> i'm putting it towards my horse. >> i like that. twins and no matter how identical they are they always do different things. let me ask you this. would you consider buying stock? >> i mean, if i knew what to do with it, yes. >> i'm going to help my son pay for school and the other one already got an academic scholarship and the rest i'll spend on my granddaughter. >> can i get a hug. did you hear that? >> see all the ladies behind me.

>> yes, i do. >> i'm taking every single one to dinner. >> you hear that girls? >> so in lieu of the final trade we're asking the traders where they would put their tax refund money to work. after all, you work hard for your money. tim? >> well, you know, the china data this week is actually seeing gold having a bigger run than they have had, silver outperforming and platinum still the trade. swc, platinum industrial and also again financial engineering. the time outperforming, going to mick a move. ♪ work marred for the money >> you know what that is from? >> "flash dance." >> your favorite number. three number one songs, can you name them, "works hard for the money," and "maniac" and "irene kara's "got a feeling." >> and apple, i don't think it's done. people want to put the nail in

the coffin but i don't think they are done. still a lot of power behind them. might be volatile in the next couple of months or so, but i still believe you can get some bang for your buck in apple. >> b.k.? >> well, for me my final trade last night was to short xop and people can't shorten some of their accounts so i want to be short oil. the way i would do is ddg, buy, that one of the inverse etfs. i think shorting oil next week is a great thing to do with your tax dollars. >> there you are, guy. you cameback. >> where did you go, man? >> thought you would hop on the new jersey transit and go on home. >> a lot of fun people out there. >> carter worth coming up. >> huge, huge edition. >> quickly, pete. folks from georgetown university finance club. can you turn around and get them on the camera. look at that, wave to the crowd, folks >>the next generation of investors out there. >> listen. >> your final trade. >> i'm with tim on the gold thing, instead of gdx i'm going gld. something is cooking and i can't wait to hear about it on "oa."

>> all right. that does it for us here on "fast money." more "fast money" at 5:00. meantime, don't go anywhere. big edition of "options action" starts right after this quick break. a fair price, quality service, and that horrible smells are really good at hiding. oh, boy. there it is. ♪ ohh. ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed. get started today at angie's list, because your home is where our heart is. ♪ what's going on here? i'm val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya.

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great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business.

january, we're live on the nasdaq market site on this friday afternoon. while the guys are getting ready, here's what's come up on the show? >> have you guys heard when a guy asks you to netflix and chill? >> we sure have, but a key test looms next week for the streaming giant. we'll tell you what it is and how you can profit, and -- ♪ that >> that was cheesy. what one betters are betting that one dow component will do next woke. >> plus. >> that's bolt all the way. >> yeah, that's kind of what