good morning. a barrage of market-moving news. earnings reports. a bold oil call from the eia. and an ecb meeting. new this morning. volkswagen expected to buy back diesel cars in the u.s. and pay owners a billion dollars. >> and the country is going crazy about currency. the u.s. announcing new $20 bills will feature harriet tubm tubman. and alexande hamilton will stay on the 10 and social media is blowing up this morning around that. "worldwide exchange" begins right now.

♪ ooh baby baby ♪ oops i did it again ♪ i played with your heart ♪ got lost in the game game >> good morning and welcome to happy throwback thursday. britney spears, vintage 2000. >> and we are going back to the start of 2000s. early. got a nice brit song coming up. let's get to the market action. we'll do so in a few minutes but first let's go live to greece. the olympic flame is being lit at the site of the games in ancient times. the torch will relay that ends in re dangrio de janeiro in aug.

there you go. >> finishes up early august in brazil. getting ready, which we of course have complete coverage on nbc of the olympics. to the markets. u.s. equity futures after closing at fresh highs, continue to push higher here in the early action. dow futures up 42 almost, s&p up nearly 4 and nasdaq up 6. this after the dow, s&p and nasdaq saw the highest interday levels of the year yesterday. check out the yield and the 10 year treasury. we're seeing that inch higher as well. we're at 185. so some selling of treasuries on this stock market rally with yields higher. flat though this morning. oil another big story. >> let's get straight to the oil story. once again a big driver of the global market story this morning.

wti and brent closing at their highest level of the year late yesterday. today though the international agency predicting 2016 will see the biggest fall in non opec production in 25 years and suggesting that will help rebalance an over supplied market. oil prices, 44.23, up again today after big gains yesterday and really extraordinary to sigh the resilience of oil this week following that deal. we said that point yesterday and another point coming out from the iaeai that -- >> it was really wasn't this key item. supply and demand and no matter how many hedge funds are fighting this move and we're shorting oil and -- just embrace it. embrace the fact that oil is

going higher and it's relieved a huge pressure point for the rest of the markets. >> other point. yes we saw record highs. today we're getting very close to highest of all times. >> for stocks. >> and vix was lowest level for the year. i know it is not necessarily a fear gorge but definitely a volatility gauge. and to have volatility at its lowest level of the year right now? i don't know what the factor is i can't help but feeling it is a bit more of the calm before the storm than the first sign of spring. this low volatility means we're about to chute much matuuch hig. >> could also mean the market continues to climb the wall of worry and better earnings and better the pain trade has been to be cautious, to be wary and be on the sidelines. because you're missing out

what's been a 15% rally in mid february. >> and bonds falling in the u.s. nice move in the market yesterday. a risk on move with yields ticking up again, suggesting now more earnings. earnings, as opposed to simply loose policy from the fed. >> oil and earnings both on the move today. and also a major central bank meeting this morning. the ecb, mario draghi and company widely expected to hold rates steady. but then he holds a news conference at 8:30 a.m. eastern. that's going to be the key he'll take questions. german dax higher. weakness in france and uk but strength in italy and spain. the euro has been climbing higher ahead of draghi in the last few sessions. right now off a bit but pretty much flat around the 113 level.

the key question is how dovish or how easy does he want to sound p. remember last time in march he added a huge stimulus program which markets embraced and rallied off of but then turned lower and the entire soothing effect wore off when he said that interest rates probably weren't going to go much lower from here. so does he hint that the ecb has more tools or is he going under pressure -- >> -- been clear about his negative views about interest rates earlier. and i think in terms of detail people are hoping to get more on what bonds they are going to start buying. but i don't think people are expecting any form of action or any clear dovishness. he announced big measures, he's got to wait for them to filter through. the second round of tltros was -- i forget what the --

>> just like the say tl -- >> exactly. if it was just focussed on currency last round measures then -- >> -- ever since. >> -- nosly that it back fired i think it was more focused on bank lending. so the -- anyway -- >> plus what does he say if anything as the uk brexit which is going to be huge for europe? >> he never answered straight up on that. we'll have to see. >> we'll see. that is communications challenge. draghi sometimes lives up. sometimes disappoints. we'll see. asia overnight t nikkei closing has highest level in 2 1/2 months on rising yen. plus 2.3%. generally rising oil yesterday helped asia across the board. apart from shanghai.

yesterd recently apart from this week, recently you have seen shanghai outperform in the face of asia underperform. and slightly reversed this week. the shenzhen composite is going the opposite direction to the rest of asia. nikkei up 2% today. >> weekly jobless claims this morning. also the business outlook survey. and a heavy load of earnings. and the fun continues. after the bell we'll hear from alphabet, or google. microsoft, star bucks and a few others. and earnings have been mixed. coca-cola yesterday, there's

been a little rotation out of those kind of stocks into places like financials, which earnings were taken very well by investors. >> absolutely right and the big lesson is the market is responding to earnings either way. we've had good moves and it is not just focused on whether the fed -- >> it's been light on fed talk this week. heavy on earnings. >> exactly. les look at another corporate story this time the other side of the atlantic. volkswagen reportedly reaching a deal with officials. the auto maker will buy back cars that were cheating on emissions tests. the agreement is expected to be announced today during a federal court hearing in san francisco. you can see the share price is up 6%. so the overall cost of this coming below expectations what it could have cost. and we still don't have full

details. another point to highlight. notes coming out, saying the main focus keep an eye on full year results. that is in fact a bigger thing to focus on than this hearing itself. but certainly clear, extra leg down the journey that they are admitting they were certainly in the wrong and consumers will be getting money back. >> earnings movers from after the bell yesterday to tell you about this morning. american express, the company beating the street on the top and bottom lines. revenues rising for the first time in five quarters. among reason, higher spending by card members in the united states, which is overall good for consumers in general. >> united share price down 2.7%. qualcomm forecasting third

quarter profit. expecting chip shipments to fall. earnings beat the street in yum faster than expected in the first quarter, helped by chinese new year chicken bucket promotions. up 2.4%. walmart shrinking its board by three members bringing the total to 12. a while a new generation comes in. dish network and via com negotiating. via com's channels have not yet been dropped from dish. and tesla, elon musk saying the interest has surprised even him.

there is demand for the new tesla. >> great bounceback. >> a slew of companies set to report today. alphabet, formerly known as goog google. >> three things to watch from alphabet after the bell. first is looking for earnings of $7.96 a share on revenue of $16.57 billion. they are watching growth under --. also google could be facing a big fine after the european commission filed aibt trust charges against google for allegedly breaking competition laws. listen for commentary on that. second, google watch to see how much is driving growth in clicks. youtube is doing well, should paint a rosie picture going forward. and third thing, investors

continue to scrutinize amount of money lost on non core businesses. >> also watch for any response to the eu which has filed anti-trust complaints. google posted a blog post but i wonder if they would fight back harder in anyway today. still to come a key focus for the global markets. a live frort from frfankfurtfra. and mcdonald's went public on this day. toot sits at nearly 130 bucks a share. the firm has struggled recently because of more health conscious consumers but seems to have turned things around with the all day breakfast menu in october. mickey dee's will -- i'm reading this because this was my

throwback to the 2,000. >> what is that? >> this is robbie williams and -- ♪ my analysis shows your stories are actually about human connection, even love. great storytelling needs drama and empathy. my cognitive apis can help any business better connect with its audience. you should try writing a book. find a remote hotel. bring the family. i do not think that is a good idea. bring the family. ♪ i could get used to this. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid.

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great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. the ecb meeting is today. we're expecting to hear from draghi in faw hours. jeff cutmoore, live in frankfurt. >> i think we'll get a

restatement from draghi that he has tools left in the tool box and the ecb is doing whatever it can at this point to ease the financial crisis that europe is troubled by. no one is expecting any change in rates here or anything new in terms of what he intends to do. but what's overshadowed this meeting is some of the criticism he's received from the -- and specifically in the last 24 hours about critically about negative deposit rates. i think the focus will be on how mario draghi responds to some of that criticism.

fed bashing in the states is fairly wide spread and common place i think. but it is unusual you see this kind of criticism of the ecb from a key stakeholder in the organization. so that might change the tone of the press conference. >> do we think he's under pressure politically, draghi? is he losing support of the governments he needs support from to remain in his place? not any serious way, is he? >> well i think it is a very difficult story. you understand that mario draghi effectively stepped in and eased the pain for a lot of european governments that should have reformed their own banking systems and focused on supply side adjustments to their own economies with labor laws and so forth after the financial crisis. effectively he gave them a get out of jail free card, by bringing down interest rate, lowering the cost of money and

helping to ease the passage of money into the real economy at a time when the banking system was constipated with bad debt. the trouble is we move on from 2008 to 2016 and the banking system still appears to be constipated with debt and a lot of those reforms haven't taken place. so i think even as mario draghi get this is criticism, wilfred, he might feel somewhat e grieved that european governments haven't met him halfway. >> live from outside the, ecb. and i add, one of the great achievements of draghi over the last years was managing the political framework in front of him, the divided opinion what he should do and the fact he managed to get through what it's ath times a lot considered were illegal originally. >> and saved the common currency and plunging when --

>> exactly. and that was with policies some disagreed with. he has a much tougher tight rope to balance cross. >> you could argue. >> i think. >> the trade of the day is relate to the ecb. with the euro up, many are expecting draghi to maintain his dovish stance today, which could lead to the euro falling. so how can investors trade that? well the etfs that have performed best after draghi made dovish, or easy, comments include these. on the flip side investors will want to avoid these. this is all according to our crunch the numbers looking back over previous ecb meetings.

>> just wrapping up the ecb meeting quick. the final analysis, ecb day, do we care? not really was his point. compared to last month's -- >> because they are expected to actually do something. >> right. >> but he always says something. >> right. but not as big a month as last month. other news after a visit to saudi arabia and talks with king salman salman, president obama flies to london today to vote. obama makes it no secret he hopes britain to remain part of the bloc saying it is in the economic and security interests. most would rather see the status quo than any clear change. >> the question is what does he say if britain does vote to leave the eu? >> well that would be huge. >> when we come back, social

media is buzzing about the new $20 bill featuring harriet tubman. we'll bring great reaction next. >> she's ridiculously excite about this one. as am i. >> it is a great story. >> it is a great story. first we head to break here the national forecast from reynolds wolf. wolf could you also tell us about jamaica? >> we have stormy activity in texas, louisiana, mississippi. scattered showers and storms continue. relatively quiet day for the eastern sea board and to the southwest and seattle and los angel angeles. temperatures for the central and northern rockies going into the 60s in the front range. 73 in clique.

82 in miami and 79 in beautiful los angeles. you're watching cnbc. we'll see

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a topic everyone is buzzing b about. the treasury department putting harriet tubman on the face of the $20 bill. >> we said we were going to listen to the american bill. and we did. we heard a lot of commentary that a woman should be on the

20, not the 10. there was the sense that that is the bill that people use the most. if we're going to make an important statement then it should be the 20. >> alexander hamilton will be staying on the $10 bill but there will be a feature to honor the women's suffrage movement. this whole caught on because of the popularity of the play "hamilton." and something i actually talked to treasury secretary lou about. and when i was in washington and he got a kick about it. he thinks it is so funny that all of america was so engaged and enthusiastic. >> thank god for the timing of this play. if it had been many years ago probably there wouldn't have been the same level of enthusiasm for it. >> it forced the treasury to

completely change their plans and now they have appeased everyone. plenty of social media reaction. i was surprised. so many op eds coming out and applauding the treasury secretary. >> got me reading more about british bank notes because i didn't know exactly what was on all of them. the queen is on all of them. and different people like charles darwin are on the 10 pound o note. james watt, the steam engine -- >> all your notes are the same size so day all feel the same if you are quick trying to find the right one. whereas british notes get bigger as they are worth more so you always know. and so they are different colors and you get them at the glance. >> i do like going to other countries and seeing the colorful notes. maybe the next redesign. >> 500 euro note you never get

to see. purple. lovely. alongside the pink -- >> look at that. britain had a woman on the bill. >> and has a birthday today. happy birthday. if you're watching. the race to the white house, turned out for a scramble for gop delegates with little margin for error. tracy potts from washington. >> reporter: with hillary clinton, this is almost her nomination to lose. she's so far ahead and her numbers are looking very strong. with donald trump he's got to win 57% of remaining delegates. neither protest nor parody are slowing down donald trump. >> i promise you this we're going to get the nomination. >> trump will reportedly tone it down using a speech writer talking foreign policy but still leaning on ted cruz to drop out.

>> there is no path for lyin' ted cruz to get the anonymounom. he's out. >> the math is virtually impossible for donald trump. >> and john kasich says he's going nowhere. >> i'm going to be the nominee. >> wisconsin's governor now says he will support trump if he wins. that is the person i hope and believe strongly will be the nominee. that being ted cruz. in the end i'm going to support the republican running. >> in the meantime bernie sanders team admits it is an uphill battle. >> we have to unify our country. we've got to quit the divisiveness. >> reporter: after new york. she can now lose every state and still win the nomination. >> now bernie sanders still actually has a lot of money to challenge hillary clinton. his delegate numbers may not be where he would have liked to

have been at this point. he he's got 17 million on hand and so he can keep fighting. and certainly intends to. >> tracy potts. thank you trch. still to come.

great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about.

i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. stocks in rally mode around the world. >> toy troubles. mattel shares under pressure as bar bee sales disappoint. >> and that very special birthday celebration, the longest british moniker in history turns 90 today. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost.

we're throwing back with pop from the 2000s. is this pink? right. look at me. on trend with the early 2000s apparently. the markets this morning. slightly higher to the tune of 40 for the dow, the s&p 4.3 points and the nasdaq up 4.7. yesterday the vix at lowest point of the year. also bond markets show a little risk on sentiment. the yield which has been lower ticking up 1.86% and oil was a big factor yesterday as well. >> rallying new highs for the s&p. the dow and the nasdaq. joining us is tobias.

how many have been caught off guard by this 15% rally since the mid february lows? >> most people to put it simply. >> a lot of gloom and doom out there. >> most fund managers got -- well they stepped up at the end of december and saying thank god 2015 is over and let's get ready for the rally and that didn't work out for the first weeks of the year and turned defensive and they got caught with this ram. part is the fears going around in the industrial recession argument. there was no recession coming down the pike. it was inventory misfunction. and an example. in late january, early february if you looked at the number of industries that report into the industrial production numbers, 41% of them were saying their production was down.

59% were saying still up year over year. when you are in recession you are talking about 60, 70% down production. this didn't fit the narrative. the data was different than the narrative. generates a signal about 90% of the time markets are up thereafter. today we're more neutral on that indicator. valuations are okay. and i think what you need to see now is earnings growth pick up. and that is a second half phenomenon. we're think we're probably at the end near term of this rebound in the market. investors kind of want it to continue because they have started to jump in on it. and i'm almost suggests there is a bit of a capitulation to the market moving higher at this

point because of the data. >> it was really fed driven initially wasn't it? >> i disagree with that. this has been around earnings. for the last six quarters earnings haven't been there. mostly due to energy. this is the first quarter being the first quarter of the year that we're seeing not just x energy earnings down. when you take energy out earnings are down across a variety of areas. so i'm not convinced that beating much lowered expectations is exciting. it is when you start to see the earnings growth which is more of a second half phenomenon. >> you can't defy the fact that the chart of the s&p and oil are nearly the same. >> there are a lot of reasons for that. if you think about it. the notion of it being demand driven versus supply driven is kind of we're. what's been happening with oil is the supply of the market and

things like that. excesses of supply. it is kind of weird in that sense. it shouldn't be trading this way. but if energy prices go up. a couple of things happen. earnings pressure gets relieved. fears around the banking system energy to loan customers comes back. if commodities got a bit better oh those countries' economies can do a bit better and that is where the connection is coming fromthe dollar's also been a factor of course. other central banks are doing around the world is relevant. are you expecting anything out of the ecb today? >> their challenge right now is expectations are high. i don't watch the ecb as a u.s.

guy. but it's been more about how do they work within all of the other central banks and how do they address people wanting more and more and more. the problem with giving them negative interest rates and in terms of customer base and corporates who would borrow they don't want to borrow more. so i'm not sure how that mechanism is really working. >> is it time to finally switch from the utilities, telecomes, dividend-paying coca-colas, into energy, financial, industrial, those who have not caught up to the rally. >> you mention in particular the dollar. some of the consumer staple stocks. it's odd but consumer staples do better when the dollars going up even though they have large international exposures. it is more a defensive trade.

>> f thanks as always. >> and happy birthday to the queen. can i weigh in? she's my queen too. the world's not just yours. >> right. in corporate news volkswagen reaching a deal reportedly with u.s. officials. will buy back cars that cheat on emissions tests and pay to compensate owners. the agreement is expected to be announced today during a federal court hearing in san francisco. stock price responding well. up 5%. so better than expected in terms of forecast for how big the payouts. and also watch out volkswagen's four year earnings tomorrow. >> mattel is struggling,

reporting a bigger than expected quarter quarterly loss. weak sales of toys such as barbie, monsters high and american girl. shares down about 9% in the pre market. >> and for today's top trending stoirgs we're back to the main one again. a very happy birthday to queen elizabe elizabe elizabeth. >> i'm sure the celebrations go far and wide across the country. >> they do. >> do the pubs stay open later is it. >> they do. they -- if i were there i would know for sure. >> all nighter at the pub. >> well difficult at -- if we were -- >> we can still have a drink for

queen. india wants its crown jewel back. some say it was a gift to queen victoria. others say it was stolen. the indian government has began a campaign to get the jewel back. it is currently the center piece of the british royal family's crown jewels in london. >> interesting day to bring up that particular story. es espn, curt schilling, released a statement saying espn is an exclusive company and he's been released. and some users took to

twitter saying that it was. others saying it was disrespectful to link marley who was also a lifetime civil rights activist to unofficial national marijuana day. snap chat defended itself. >> lot of people using it. disappointing some people i suppose. right. i can gauge interest on jamaica when arrive later in the day. >> i'm going cincinnati. which one's better? >> well agree to disagree. i don't want to say that in front of hometown supporters. still to come on the show today's must read. google's tactics and harriet tubman on the $20 note.

the google story, i have to say typically the details of the story are not hugely exciting or interesting. that is fascinating read and it really explains from the europeans perspective what this whole debate is about. google, the quote coming out that saying google's -- the title google android tactics are

microsoft light. arguing google's strategy has been a masterpiece of craftiness of how to advance without appearing to attack. in fact saying it's amazing how long they have gone with such a huge market share. the way they have kept android free. and not fully tied other technologies into android. apple says doesn't have the same problem because it only has 18%. >> is it in defense of google? >> it explains the debate it. says what they have done thus far to in fact remain outside of competition rulings is a masterpiece and their tactics much better than microsoft's 10 years ago. microsoft faced a fine in 2004 from the eu. and i just everyone, it is a great explanation of what the whole debate centers on. it is in the really defense of anyone but explains it very

well. >> how they have quietly managed to. >> grow grow. market share is something like 80%. >> which is why the eu sheet says this is not political. >> exactly. as the very good explainer on the whole debate. >> well you know i had to pick a currency one. usa today applauding the hamilton call. harriet tubman, she'll be the first african american, the first woman since the 1880s. tubman is worthy of a place of honor. and they go on to say why jackson is not. founding fathers of the democratic party, a slave owner. and represents a lot of values that no longer represent treasury.

made a good call when it comes to the makeover of these bills. >> right. we're approaching the top of the hour. so that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." becky quick joins us live from new york with a look at what's coming up. >> you know, we have a lot of things coming up this morning. earnings parade continues. we have earnings from southwest and the ceo is going to be joining us in about just 40 minutes. we'll get the numbers i think somewhere around 6:00. we'll also be getting numbers from gm and the cfo. will give us an idea of manufacturing and auto sales. both key indicators of the economy. plus later we're going to be talking with leg mason. they have done a new survey where they talk to investors about the american dream, whether it's still in reach. believe it or not even affluent

investors say more the american dream may be more out of reach. and sara you picked a story from the top of usa today. i love that. the other thing that caught my eye was the story right underneath it. the aging bulls, the ceos who won't let go. american ceos are getting older and older and they have a list of names and pictures. warren buffett. rupert murdoch. and they put that alongside sumner redstone. and just assuming that i'm of a certain age that also means a certain competence. >> who's mental competency is being challenged in court right now. >> >> exactly. i think anybody would say don't put me --

>> well we are celebrating today. the queen's birthday. >> she looks fantastic by the way. >> absolutely. >> thank you becky. >> thank you very much. "squawk box" coming up in 9 minutes time. >> first our facebook and twitter question this morning. a trifecta of potential catalysts today. central bank, oil, e. which matters most to you and the markets. friends coming over?

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a busy morning for the markets. earnings, economic data and of course an ecb meeting. joining us is lisa shallot. so what are you telling your clients now that we continue to make new highs on the stock market nearly every day for the year? is it time to jump on board or wait on the side lines.

>> we're constructive for the year and i think while the markets have moved very far, very fast. and we may in fact see a little bit of a pause here into the summer and have a little bit of sell in may and go away. given all of the various negative headline categories we may see over the summer like brexit and the u.s. presidential elections and elections in japan, etc. our view is that we are constructive here. and one of the key reasons for being constructive is positioning and sentiment. this is one of the more distrusted rallies we've seen in a long time. many individual investors are not positioned for it. many hedge funds are not positioned for it. i know you had my friend tobias on earlier today and he talked

about how folks are very much offside. and that tends to, you know, create the opportunity for markets to move higher. >> so which sectors in particular can still move higher. some of them have already run up incredibly fast. >> right. but one of the things we're emphasizing to our clients is to really go below the headlines of the s&p 500 index, which is probably fairly valued at this point. but when you look below it, you know, in sectors like financials. sectors like industrials. pockets of healthcare like the old pharmaceutical type names, old technology are areas where you have very good value. solid cash flow. decent dividends and dividend yield growth and high quality. >> so we asked on twitter today.

a slew of earnings, big cap names like general motors. we asked which matters more and we got an even split. which one matters most lisa in. >> for us we are looking at earnings. we want to be able to see companies be able to navigate the recovery here and what we see as the modest improvement in overall gdp growth around the world. and so we are focused on earnings. i think of the three things that you asked viewers, i think the one thing that wasn't on the list that we're putting up there as the single most important thing remains the u.s. federal reserve. and in fact u.s. dollar. what happens with the u.s. dollar. because that's been absolutely

critical. >> thank you. that's it for "worldwide exchange" today. "squawk box" is coming up next. "squawk box" is coming up next. have a very lovely morning.

great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business.

garm. it will be a day for markets because we have a full slate of earnings reports and an ecb meeting. also a bold call on oil from the iea. volkswagen is reportedly making a deal to buy back cars in the u.s. and pay customers $5,000 a piece. and we'll talk to a reporter who went inside the headquarters of a virtual reality company magic leap. it is thursday, april 21, 2016

and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ i've got the magic in me ♪ every time i touch that track -- ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." ♪ i've got the magic in me -- >> good morning everybody and welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick. u.s. equity futures that the hour are looking at this point like they are indicated higher. dow futures up about 42. s&p up 3 and nasdaq up 4.5. overnight in asia the nikkei closing at its highest in two and a half months and rising hopes for more easing from bank of japan. so they want even lower negative interest rates at this point. the nikkei was up by 2%. and blah blah. and the europe the ecb is meeting today. draghi and company expec