>> i think they actually matter. but i think we're in this period we're not expecting much of them. so therefore, you can overlook the quarterly number this time. >> because, again, going back to the sort of the theme of the show here, the central bank seems to be driving things. >> happy passover. >> and you. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" for friday, starts right now. nasdaq market overlooking new york city's times square. steve and david and karen and guy are here. tonight on fast, everyone was focused on google and microsoft, there was another tech company that sent a chill down the spines of the investors today. and why people are so worried. the ceo of caterpillar said something on "squawk box" this morning, has karen fineman downright livid. why you could be looking at your

portfolio. we start with the worst numbers for tech. google and microsoft weighing heavily after disappointing ranges last night. but the s&p ended higher. can the market continue to rally without tech? guy? >> that's the story. that's how we led the show last night. we saw where the stocks were trading. you asked the question, one of the things we said, look, we've seen numbers like this before. the resilience of the s&p is something. trust me, folks, i'm not pretending to be bullish, i have not been bullish. you can't discount the fact that the s&p should have sold off significantly, given the earnings, and i get it they're nasdaq stocks, but it was unchanged on a day after a run. >> karen? >> agree. very impressive on the market if you think about the same stocks that none of them doing well. that has been one driver for a while. to me, the story is oil. that the market sort of seems to be backtracking with oil.

one could argue that, okay, that brings the fed back into play, and that would be a negative for the market. this is a pretty resilient market. i'm getting actually a little bit nervous. >> nervous? >> a little bit nervous. we sold a little bit of stuffer. >> you did? okay. >> when you look at the tech earnings, i look at it and say, i don't look at it being completely negative. google wasn't that bad. it doesn't look that bad for facebook. ultimately it's not like we've seen disappointing earnings. they meet street expectations. >> that's what it's all about. >> but i tell you what, if it's bad news, if it's bad earnings, deteriorating earnings growth, i would look at it and say you see big names coming out of the crowded trades. >> there have been bad earnings, but the issue with these, i've said that i think earnings take a back seat. counterintuitive as that sounds even when i say it, i think

we're looking at oil, we're looking at the fed, a push into risk assets. now, can the market continue to go higher without tech? >> yeah. >> energy, materials, industrials, is what has been leading this market rally. so i think it can. >> yeah. sentiment is so much more important. so much more important now. as in ever. i look at sentiment in oil, it doesn't matter about supply and demand. it's sentiment. >> to button up the oil conversation, though, we did switch front months. that instantly overnight oil looked optically like it was 5% to 10% higher than where it was just a couple of days ago. so if oil does backtrack, i think the market hinges on that. >> if we were to rally to new highs, though, don't we need to see some sort of rotation? which would imply we would need to have the precipitation of technology, because it is all these other sectors, staples, utilities that led us higher. >> you would think so. 90% of this rally is multiple expansion. you're not getting it on the

back of earnings or on the back of earnings growth, you're getting it on the backs of multiple expansion. people are searching for yields, to seymour's argument, that he's been right about, actually low yields and negative interest rates for higher multiple for the broader market. i think at some point it's bad. but it's good now. >> what were you trimming today, karen? >> when the amlp -- when they traded down, they were getting ridiculous. this is one we bought a fair amount of. it's up a lot. it's just, you know, it's up 60%. that's well more than i was hoping for in the short term. the other day i sold a little jpmorgan. but i think, though, there is another driver out there that's potentially good for the market, beside the ipo that we'll get to, the deal market has been absolutely dead. we just have not seen deals this year. i think if we get confidence back, we see some deals.

that will put a little bit of a floor on the market. >> come monday morning, will people regret not having bought a microsoft on this pullback or google, or any of the names that got hammered today or yesterday or the day before? >> i think google, we all read through the earnings. that tact or traffic acquisition cost, think we used to look at that and now we're looking at a way of reevaluating google. i think you have some time there. microsoft, you need to get back to that search for yield. and today what was interesting was that energy used to be the top performer. then you would see utilities be the laggards. utilities are closing that gap. so it was basically energy, you had materials in there, you had financials, then you had -- i'm sorry, you had energy and utilities were two down on the sectors. so i think they're climbing back up. microsoft needs you to get back to focus on yield. >> really? how about you? >> google is explainable. they missed by about 45 cents.

30 cents of that was essentially, i think $178 million write-off that they had. and another 15 cents was some fx headwinds. i look at google and think it's a setup to buy the stock here. i like it. and i like facebook. facebook could be a really interesting frame. >> s&p 500, the tech stocks rallying 13% from the february lows. could the sell-off in techs be setting up the perfect opportunity? let's go to steve grasso. >> this is how we kicked off the show. so even if you have tech sort of fade a little bit, i think the market is range bound, we've been discussing this the last couple of weeks, i think it's a tradeable market. let's look at the triple qs. these are all of your supports in the marketplace. so if you look at the near term high, the near term low, you come up with some -- you know how much i love these things.

this is your levels that we'll hold. i should say that should hold on the retracement. but i purposely made this chart very packed in with a bunch of different levels. because right here you have a 200-day moving average. then you slide down, you have 100-day moving average. then you slide down even further and have a 50-day moving average. you are riddled here with support. so bang for your buck, if you're going to be buying the market now, buy the triple qs versus the s&p. and the reason why i say that is if you look at the recent high in the s&p, recent low in the s&p, you don't really get the same amount of support. the other thing is, you slide a much bigger distance to your first level of supports. flat on year. right there. these are your retracements. this is basically the 681 and 50%. not to get too wonky, this is where the market should balance if it goes according to plan.

now you have to go between that, you get your 200 day. a lot more room to drop here. even though it's range bound, a lot more room to move. >> all right. this is almost like an inherent, would you rather -- >> ask it. >> would you rather the s&p 500 -- >> i think that's a great question. the resilience of the s&p 500 cannot be discounted. i'll say it again, at this point i would rather the s&p, because again, we should have sold off today. we did not -- at least we're going to test last may's high of 2135. >> i would rather the -- i mean, rather the s&p 500. i really think that if we're in the midst of a rotation trade, commodity based names, you know, whether it be oil names, i think you're going to continue to see that sort of sentiment trade, could take a little bit higher. i think there's more risk on the down side on the qs, only because i think you'll see the names that are crowded tech names to use as a source of

funds. >> grasso? >> i think that both are going to be volatile. but when you get less volatility, there's much more support in the triple qs. you have a greater distance to fall to reach for those supports than in the triple qs. so bang for your buck, risk/reward, if you think the market's selling off, much more support in the triple qings. you have to hunt for the support. the first tech ipo of 2016 debuting in its first day of trade. could it spell more trouble for the ipo markets? bob pisani will be here in the house. >> no. >> with a special report. what do beyonce and "game of thrones" have in common? they're all part of a big hbo lineup this weekend. why are they allowing you to watch it all for free? we'll explain. a major milestone for the bull market. we'll tell you why that is and why it could have investors making major changes to their

portfol portfolio. much more "fast money" right after this. wrely on the us postal service? because when they ship with us, their business becomes our business. that's why we make more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. here, there, everywhere.

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falling below the ipo price today. which kicks off our top trade as the first tech ipo of 2016. what does it say about investor appetite this year? bob pisani is here to break it down for us. it's great to have you here in-house. >> thank you. >> i had the privilege of talking to the ceo earlier this week in miami and he said this would be a key test for the ipo market and it didn't do too well. >> i was happy going into this week. we had three ipos that went well this week. the important thing, the price, 9 million shares, 1550 to 1750. what happens? they price 8 million shares at $14. look at this. this did not trade very enthusiastically all day long. below the price for most of the day. closes right there. what a coincidence, $14. that's called a syndicate bid, folks. what was the problem? what was the issue? everybody kept saying this week, bob, this is going to be very important. this is a test of investor

appetite for tech stocks. if that's really true, then there's a disconnect between tech valuations and what the public is willing to pay. and i think that the only conclusion we can make, not just for the unicorns out there for tech in general, and things were going so well. we had mgm, we had bats global market. remember, secure works priced well below the price talk. what we need to do is figure out if there's really a problem with tech valuation right now. unfortunately we won't get the answer immediately because next week there's nothing in the tech area that's notable. we get a notable ipo, las vegas casinos is going to be pricing. this is the old station casinos, looking to price 27 1/4 million. this doesn't have the big, big appeal that mgm reaps. the only other thing floating

out there is a big tech stock that might price, and could be floating around. right now we're in a little bit of an unknown area about tech valuations. i think this is a very clearly warning sign. >> educate me a little bit on the syndicate bid. it closes at 14. which is a face-saving price for everyone. how long do they hang on to that stock? is there an over allotment that won't get done now? what happens? >> they can exercise that at any time. i think the important thing is, there's no rules on this. use common sense. they lowered the price already. they lowered the amount that they're offering. and it still closes below the price? that doesn't look good. obviously you want to get it at or near the price on a bad day and say at least we closed right at the bid. psychologically, i think that's important. >> what about this ipo market is that it is at a stall right now. this as the overall markets are a percentage point away from all-time highs. this almost doesn't make any sense. >> yeah, but i guess if you look at it, we trade the markets

every day. we're instantaneous when we look back on it. we're second by second. when you're filing for an ipo, we look at the way the market sold off so aggressively and rallied so aggressively hard to the up side. it could be transitory on either side. so it's a lot more slower motion behind the scenes. >> right. >> so i think that's why it stalled. this, though, ipo, if you look at palo alto, or fire eye, these things are down 15%, 13% -- >> not a good sector to be in, period. >> exactly. i think it's more testament to that than making a statement on the overall ipo market. >> we'll get a whole lot of other stuff out there. appetite for the lbos, another little area. we'll see if there's interest there. we'll have to figure out whether there's a tech specific problem or other sectors. >> bob, thank you. >> pleasure. good to be here. >> big reversal in caterpillar today despite ending the day lower. slashing the year's guidance.

the ceo of cater bill lar had this to say about their forecasts earlier today on "squawk box." obviously that wasn't doug. all the good stuff that hbo -- basically he was talking about the forecast. that's the point -- oh, we've got it. >> we did tweak our forecast for the full year down about $1 billion, about 2%. and that's primarily around rail and marine and a little bit more negative price. we looked at that hard. our construction equipment business we held. i think that's the first time we've held that flat in a long time year on year. i'm happy with that. >> guy? we hear this guy make forecasts a lot. >> i'm watching it this morning. i'm watching the whole -- >> go on. >> there's no way he's going to say anything about a bottoming process. because he literally said it for the last two and a half, three

years, about a number of different things. sure enough, no sooner do i say that, he said, we're close to a bottom, or bottoming. at a certain point you can no longer make that comment. it might be true this time, but it's been at least -- karen can speak to this, the last three years they have no visibility whatsoever. if you don't have any visibil y visibility, stop saying it. fittingly enough i'm talking about caterpillar. the stock has had a nice run, sold off today. you know what, talk about valuation. all i'm saying is, they have to change their tune with wall street. >> totally agree. i think one of the things wall street needs is a management that they can feel comfortable with that has credibility. i always love the management that underpromised and overdelivers. that makes investors feel comfortable. i don't know how they can feel comfortable with this. why do they have so little visibility? why do they continually make projections, change them and say the rest of the year will be fine? how do they have that visibility

without having the near quarter visibility? i never get that. i agree, i can't understand why they keep digging. >> quick question here. doug, the headline on monday, that he's out as caterpillar ceo. >> i think you rally from that. i think karen's a hundred percent right. you have to have confidence in management. i think it's a super important characteristic for a stock empire. >> look at the s&p 500 because it is on the cusp of doing something it's only done once before in history. i'll tell you what that is. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> i will take what is mine. with fire and blood, i will take it. >> we hear you. hbo is hoping to do just that. and you won't believe what they're doing this weekend to try to lure in more viewers. we'll explain. plus, everyone's talking about apple next week. >> ted, my boy, it's going to be legend. wait for it.

gary. >> but there's another area of the market that could see a massive move. we'll tell you what that is later this hour. a fair price, quality service, and that horrible smells are really good at hiding. oh, boy. there it is. ♪ ohh. ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed. get started today at angie's list, because your home is where our heart is. ♪ the call just came in. she's about to arrive. and with her, a flood of potential patients. a deluge of digital records. x-rays, mris. all on account...of penelope. but with the help of at&t, and a network that scales up and down on-demand, this hospital can be ready. giving them the agility to be flexible & reliable. because no one knows & like at&t.

welcome back to "fast money." it is a huge weekend for hbo,

three big premieres. julia boorstin is in l.a. with the details. julia? >> hey, melissa, hbo has a lot riding on this weekend as it looks to grow subscriber numbers for the new stand-alone app and coverage of the tv channels. they're bringing back its three biggest shows, and tomorrow night it will debut beyonce's much-hyped special event called lemonade. the middle weight world championship boxing match. for all these tv events, hbo is available for a free preview weekend, and a free trial to hbo now. this is a key weekend to draw subscribers to the channel and the app which is one year old. in february, hbo reported just 800,000 subscribers for hbo now. investors are anxiously awaiting its update on those subscriber numbers. the survey monkey reveals many more are using free trials, or sharing passwords. reporting nearly 600,000 new hbo

downloads every month. the real question is, how many of those people are canceling, or deciding it's worthwhile to pay $15 a month for the app. this weekend hbo is under pressure to deliver entertainment so compelling people will keep on subscribing year round. there's also a technical challenge, as apps must work without a hitch. two years ago, hbo go, the app subscribers can access if they're paying for a tv bundle, that app suffered some glitches during the premiere of game of thron thrones. some of those people were not happy. >> what are they hoping? >> well, i think we got a little bit of the read. when they announced 800,000 subscribers in february. but the fact that they're doing a free weekend, you can watch free on television, might really help. i think that we would hope to

hear more when time warner reports earnings on may 4th. that's just a couple of weeks away. i would expect the analysts to ask questions about it if they don't say anything in the release or prepared remarks. >> julia, i know what you're doing this weekend. thank you. julia boorstin out in l.a. for us. okay, this is all about getting the subscriber with original good content. >> it is. we talked about it a little bit last night. it's interesting for netflix as well. >> right. >> 800,000 sounds like a lot. i would think this would blow by that, though. a good amount. >> sure. grasso? >> i think the streaming -- i've been positive on netflix, i've been positive on streaming. i've been positive on disney saying when people cut cords, it's not going to kill them. in the skinny bundle that will probably make larger margins in the long run. but i think it's worrisome that all of the players in streaming, i think the barriers to entry we all talked about, probably aren't great at all. >> okay.

so in "game of thrones," the battle for the iron throne continues this weekend. in lieu of the final trade -- you guys don't watch "game of thrones"? >> i do. my favorite show. >> i don't. >> i know you don't. >> okay, okay. stick with me. we thought we would have the traders pick the stocks that would be king. grasso, kick it off. >> up 24%, just starting to work. tremendous upside from here. >> concerns about them taking on and getting that deal done in europe. this is a stock you want to buy for your kids and their kids. it's a long-term play. i love it here. >> karen? >> i don't watch it. it doesn't dovetail in any way. footlocker. i really like it. great company. >> king of the footwear. >> can we say quick happy passover? happy passover to all of you folks out there watching. boeing.

listen, i know got downgraded today. a little bit rich, but you know what, they have unbelievable businesses that they dominate in. boeing will be king. >> that does it for us. thanks for watching. see you back here monday. stay tuned. if you're going to make a statement... make sure it's an intelligent one. ♪ the all-new audi a4, with available virtual cockpit. ♪ came courtesy of james and patricia thompson. this tv? margaret and tom lee. the championship game ball? that was sebastian diaz. good guy. and all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. their life savings is now my lifestyle. female announcer: don't let someone else live the life you're saving for. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov.

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was that a wild week or what? the gang is all here. they're going to try to make sense of it. here's what's coming up. >> yeah, that sort of sums of tech this week. it's two names in particular that could really scare investors next week. we'll explain. plus -- that's what traders think one group of stocks will do next week. we'll tell you which stock is poised to surge. and -- something remarkable is going to happen to the bull market next week. we'll tell you what that is, and how you can profit. the action startri