>> guys, thank you so much for joining us. to close out the week here on "closing bell," logon to see my full interview. whether active investing can ever make a comeback. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are tim, steve, brian and guy. on fast, wall street's biggest bull says a june swoon is coming. tom lee, yes, mr. bull himself, will be here to tell us what has him so nervous. plus, get this, looking for an easy sell signal on stocks? it could be as simple as the company's ceo. and later, a classic theory pointing to big pain for stocks this summer. first we start off with today's job shocker. it had investors running for the safety of bonds, selling the u.s. dollar. curiously enough, what they weren't doing is selling stocks.

raising the question, this is a question, is this a goldilocks opportunity for traders in stocks with low rates, and a dropping dollar? brian kelly, what do you say? >> well, i suppose it could be. here's the thing that you can take away from today. if we get some kind of melt-up rally, we can say it is certainly in bubble territory. the fundamentals do not support stock valuations at this price. we know that after seven years of qe, if they have to do it again, if the economy has turned, which it looks like it has, the economy's not going to get any better if they pump more money into it. if anything were at the last stages, i'm surprised that the stock market was as strong as it was today. if you look internally, some of the things like the financials, they still did not do very well. >> a lot of surprises about the stock market strength. if you look at the dollar, you've got ammunition for a lot of trades that to me are risk-on

trades. brian is consistent how he's been, today's market reaction should have you more scared if you're one of those scared people. what i say is go with the trades that work well in the weak dollar environment. look at the correlations to commodities and eem. these are things that i think continue to work. there's obviously parts of this trade that fall out of bed on the back of this. to be clear about what happened today, today is a signal the fed is very much on hold. the dollar, which was fighting to get back above the 50 and 200 is now failed technically. you have a lot of trades that could really catch up from here. >> you said stick with what's working, and that has continued working, utilities mainly. >> utilities, xlps, all the things that people are hunting for yield. you would have thought you got a step back. more likely they raise, these things would have been weak for about a week and then rallied. today you've got the initial rally in them.

>> just to let people know, we're at the nasdaq market site. there's obviously a fire alarm going off. we'll continue broadcasting the show. we're okay as of now. clearly, we would have edited this out if it were not live tv. >> exactly. >> go ahead. >> i thought it was a b.s. call. so you still hunt for yield. even if they raise rates, was going to be anything drastic or dramatic. stay with what's working. i understand the valuations are in nose bleed territory. maybe you give these three segments a couple of days to breathe before you put money to work in this environment. >> why is the fed on hold? unemployment rate, right? unemployment rate went down to -- how do they wrap their head around that? how do they talk themselves out of that corner? >> wait, you're saying -- even though everybody on the street

is basically saying the zero chance for a june hike, you say it's still on the table? >> they say it all the time. data dependent. 4.7% unemployment rate. everything they want to happen seemingly has happened. the number was lousy. we're just playing by their rules. if they backtrack, all the fed officials, for the last month talking about a rate hike in june, it will be interesting how they paint themselves out of that corner. >> back when it was a 4% chance, i thought there would still be a rate hike in june. so i think it still is on the table. if everything guy said, they want to raise, every other fed official came out and -- if they raise -- >> it's the worst thing for the stock market. >> guy's actually saying the world is better. i can't believe we're talking about the fed here. >> the three-month average on payroll is 170 over six months.

the last time we were at this low of a three-month trend, 2012. >> but they knew all this. her's hunting for that rate rise for whatever reason. every fed official, to guy's point, has been talking up that rate rise the last couple of weeks. >> that's going to be awful for the stock market. >> we can have the same thing happen in december, and ultimately we'll have a higher market, a couple of months out. they want to raise for whatever reason. they're backed up into a corner. they need to raise. >> are you sticking with june? >> june or july. if it goes past june or july, they're not raising this year. >> the biggest bull satrader, i here. you think june could be a trouble spot? why? >> just to be clear, we're not

saying that 10%, 5%. what we're really saying is, some of the things that have been supportive has been like, you know -- >> you know what, tom, your mic has fallen off. >> i've never heard him sound smarter. >> i'm looking at him, i'm like, where's your microphone? >> it's a crazy day. a fire alarm, a mic that slipped off. >> this is magic right now. >> what tom is also saying, a lot of people have done very well in the last period. if you talk to accountants, a lot of people are cautious about risk events and taking a few chips off the table. that, if anything, is the call to make if you're someone who's been bullish. tom, you're back. please, let's hear from you. >> he's always been here. his mic is back. >> a hacker.

what i was saying was things that have been tailwinds for markets are not necessarily supportive in june. high yield's been a real juggernaut. there's increase in the month of june. i think the stock market could pause. but again, to be clear, we're not talking 5%, 10% correction. we just think you're better off buying the swoon. or the dip. >> so you wait for the markets to pull back but you're not looking for a 5% pullback? in the order of up to 5%? not pre accept tatd by a brexit, or -- >> i think those are things that keep investors sidelined as well. you know, we've been meeting with a lot of clients, and the ones who moderate through may, are booking profits. >> tom, one of your theories has been, if interest rates are low, everything's great for the market. so let's go back to our top discussion. if the fed raises rates and interest rates rise, and high yield rises, is that a long-term

bearish side? is that what's going to hit the market that nobody's expecting is rising rates. >> we published a study on this today. we looked at the 14 fed cycle since 54. we have to remember, this is the second rate hike, not the first. financial conditions already tightened. there may be a graphic we can pull up. the market tends to ignore the second rate hike. unless it comes within three months of the first rate hike. that's usually what causes a knee jerk sell-off. so 7 out of the 14 times it was more than three months later, and the market just sort of shrugged it off. what you see on this chart is that there's a consolidation after three months. months three to nine is when the market starts to digest and say, it's start to -- >> how many times have they been a rate hike in what i deem to be an earnings recession? >> i would say that when the

feds tightened when the yield curve's positive. half the time it's about 20 basis points, half the time it's below. when it's positively sloped, equities do quite well. what's happening is the fed's chasing the development of inflation. inflation is boosting earnings. by the way, i think earnings are going to turn positive. >> energy earnings are probably not truly accounted for in the s&p. >> i think that's a huge deal. if you look at the strip, just the liquid strip, december to now, it's moved up by $8. just take the four integrateds in the s&p, that would be $25 billion of incremental income. look at the integrated forecast. they barely budged in the last month. >> tom, good to see you. thank you. >> thanks. >> thanks for bearing with us, the mic and fire drill and all the -- >> my shirt is fine. look at my shirt. >> what are we doing here?

>> sea foam green. >> look at my tie. sea foam green in my tie. >> yeah, baby. >> guy's point is valid. the fed usually raises rates in a segment where you have growing global growth. increasing global growth. increasing inflation. they can talk all they want. we don't have either one of those. for whatever reason, they've established the point that they need to hike. whether it's a point of relativity from -- >> this time is a different conversation. >> they've been talking it up. every fed governor has been talking up a rate hike. i'm not going to fight the fed. >> did they have the june payroll number? >> everyone said -- >> all right. we've got to go. by the way, in case you're wondering out there, the fire alarm thing is still happening. there are still flashing lights.

but we're all right. we'll continue plowing through the show. coming up, a possible merger of yahoo!. what were they thinking. we'll explain. a simple indicator that could save you money, but might have you outraged. we might be in for a low growth environment for the rest of the year, but the traders have some stocks they think can be big winners. much more "fast money" straight ahead.

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twitter executives met to possibly merging with yahoo!. if this report is true, is twitter crazy for considering a merger like this? what do you think, tim? >> i don't think they afford to do it. they're not going to do it with their stock, which is at rock bottom prices. they're not going to have enough catch in their balance sheet. the fact that twitter management was speaking to yahoo! management when yahoo! was doing the dog and pony show, i think it's prudent that jack dorsey went to take a look.

see if there's ways that can be synergies. is this deal happening? no way. >> by the way, dorsey wasn't there, according to the initial report. also, he could have been, or they could have been interested in a piece of yahoo!'s business. it could have been good for its business. >> i think it's actually more of a negative for yahoo!. yahoo! we saw the valuations cut in half of what everyone thought yahoo! was worth. to be associated with twitter, and i'm still a shareholder of twitter, is probably more of a negative for yahoo!. i don't think two negatives make a positive for twitter. but i do think technically, the way twitter stock has been trading, makes me think there might be an ever so slight pulse. >> from the beginning what i thought about twitter is they are the world's largest newsroom. decentralized newsroom. all day long they have stuff coming on.

it should be america's home page. use the yahoo! all those properties there, and you can have it all. so for me, it actually shows some creativity on the side of twitter and their executives, that maybe we could actually get something here. >> let me ask you this, though. when you look at two different companies, look at them combined, if you don't like either of the companies, if you put them together does it all of a sudden make it a better company? >> guy's talking about something that makes sense. if anything, yahoo! has a billion eyeballs on them. this is what twitter needs to get out there. >> you have tweet deck, and make that america's home page. put it on yahoo!. get a billion eyeballs. you've got all these people out there using your product. >> but it doesn't make it right. >> dorsey better be watching this. i would say this, yahoo!'s problem is alibaba is rolling over. the stock has not traded well for a number of different

reasons for the last couple of weeks. >> facebook planning for life at mark zuckerberg. what does facebook look like after mark zuckerberg. the main thing is that they wanted to -- to feel as if he or she could do something without having to answer per se to zuckerberg. >> probably a negative. zuckerberg first came in, and everyone doubted him. and then a consensus became he was right on everything. and he flipped that switch. he had that call where everyone said, you know what, he's coming into his own. >> at this point, without him -- i understand that's not really the question. without him or anything that involves him signing off any of the reins, i think is a negative for facebook. it's up 13%. the market comes in, this one

comes in probably harder than market. >> i understand there's value in zuckerberg being there. what if sandberg stepped in and became ceo? >> you know, on some level, if you want to stretch a little bit here, it gets into the apple metaphor here. somebody's calling me now -- >> we're only on the air. we've got a fire alarm -- >> we're doing a tv show, don't call me again. no, i think you're at the place where zuckerberg is in a place of being the visionary. these guys have continued to figure how to be ahead of everybody else in their space. having said that, steve said the stock is priced to perfection. that's what i think and i think it's in the price. >> a train derailment. dom? >> melissa, what we have right now is a train derailment, and it's happened just around perhaps 70 miles east of portland, oregon, in a town

called mosier. what you're seeing right now is a live shot of this particular train which derailed, again, in moser, oregon. it was carrying crude oil. this is, again, a statement coming from a nonprofit organization that has been lobbying against the use of crude by rail. in this case here, the company, or the organization is called the columbia river keeper organization. they do say that a train carrying crude oil derailed near this town in oregon this afternoon. mosier schools have been evacuated. there you can see the live shot. there are visible flames. the train was carrying crude oil through the town of mosier. they say, according to this nonprofit organization, and their statement, the placards on the train signify they believe the trains were carrying crude oil.

so what we're watching for closely right now is to see how this is getting contained. and what else is going to be developing in the area. as you said, as we said here, the statement does say local establishments are being evacuated, including schools. guys, we'll bring you more as we know. for right now, a stunning visual of what's happening right now. 70 miles approximately east of portland, oregon. >> dom, keep us posted, thank you. still ahead, we'll tell you what could take the banks a lot lower. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> show me the money! >> that's what a number of ceos have been saying to shareholders. but a high salary can often mean low returns. we'll explain. plus, here's what one crucial group of stocks have been doing. we'll tell you why it could spell trouble for your portfolio, when "fast money"

returns. thanks man.

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welcome back to "fast money." the top five highest paid ceos in a collective $311 million in 2015. shareholders in the companies didn't do nearly as well. dom chu at headquarters with the surprising results. dom? >> so this came because of a study that equal our putout, again, earlier on in the last couple of weeks about some of the highest paid ceos at some high-profile companies. if you take a look at some of these top ceos, the five big ones here, the most -- at least highest paid on this particular list. we take a look at expedia. some pretty decent moves higher here. the stock did go up about 46%.

still, a big, big paycheck for him coming up there. a couple of media executives here are always near the top of some of these lists with regard to the top paid ceos. in this case here we haven't really seen as much in terms of returns coming out. they posted negative returns on a stock appreciation basis in 2015. and round out some of the picture there with the two ceos at oracle. also getting some pretty decent salaries there. i will point out, for all of these that were shown, the five here, perhaps most of the ceos on some of these lists here, it's mostly stock and option compensation that makes up that total large amount that you're seeing there. the majority of it does come from there. not as much comes from the cash side of things on a relative basis. some of the highest paid ceos and perhaps their returns last year, somewhat justified in some cases, and somewhat not. one i will do, for a comparison purpose here, is show you the

biggest gainer in the s&p 500 last year, which was netflix stock. up 134% in 2015. the best s&p 500 performer. hastings got about $16.5 million in compensation on that basis. so if you compare it to everybody else, perhaps a little bit of not as apples to apples, but interesting comparisons for performance and some of the other side of the equation. >> thank you, dom chu. you've got to wonder what reed hastings' compensation will be this year. >> and listen, i'm all for it. if you are working hard and you get the stock price up -- >> but on a one-year basis -- sorry to interrupt -- a lot of the oil companies, they did everything they could. murphy oil did this. pay a dividend and get you're mortgaging some part of the future. >> it's no different than wall street in 2008 when some of

those salaries should have been pulled back. >> i think you have to think about it in the context of not what did the stock do last year. oh, it went up. someone just threw a lot of gas on the fire, possibly. >> time now for the final -- that was a fast show. >> too fast. >> kind of crazy. >> part of it was consumed by fire. >> now we're losing more time. tim, final trade? >> the head and shoulders bottom, buying here. watch 34 1/2 break that. >> under armour was my final trade. i bought it today. 36 1/4 is your level to watch. it must hold out. >> last night we talked about a bad number. buy gold. gdx, buy it on monday. >> housekeeping on "fast money." leann miller. love her. going to work for the great david faber. good luck. our executive producer, max myers in the studio. >> oh!

he's in a light-colored sports jacket. happy birthday! >> doesn't look a day over 50. >> all right! >> "options action" is next. stay tuned.

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hey there. live at the nasdaq market site on this cloudy friday afternoon. here's what's coming up on the show. traders want to know about interest rates. the answer might just shock you. plus, a classic theory of big trouble for stocks. here's a hint. we'll tell you how to profit from the trouble in transports. worried about slow growth? we've got the stocks that could surge if the economy takes off, or even if it shrivels and dies. the action begins right now.