episodes. >> wow. >> number of seasons, 43. it was five digits. that would be quite a binge. >> steve, mike, thank you so much. appreciate you joining us on "closing bell" this afternoon. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. the traders are pete, karen, dan and guy. tonight on fast, missed the rally? we've got a strategy that a top technician said has beaten the markets since the 1990s, and it's the simplest thing you can do with your portfolio. why are they saying a recession is likely. david rosenberg will be here to explain. pop quiz with a ceo's 40% of his stock. first, we start off with a rally that just won't quit. the s&p is just points away from

an all-time record. here's the big question. check out this chart. the last four times we've gotten to this level, stocks have tumbled. is this the ultimate fakeout or maybe this time it's the breakout. guy, what do you stay? >> if you want to blast through that level, the high we made last may, it's hard for me to say. i don't think it's a fakeout. the market -- i'm not some raging bull here. i haven't been. i'm still not. but you have to respect the price action. every piece of bad news has been digested and followed by the market going higher. i've got to tell you, friday, the jobs number, the number alone should have had the market sell off. and it didn't. the answer to your question is, i think we absolutely go up and retest the 2135 level in the s&p. >> i don't think you have to respect the price action so much, when you think where the market has been. the bottom off the january, february lows. we're back at 2135. look at that. there's no reason why you shouldn't make a new high.

it has to be confirmed by a lot of strength. when you think about the back drop, what has been the thing that's cause us to have this rally as of late, the fact that the fed's got more dovish. >> the reason they've gotten more doveich is one last point, this time a year ago, there was about $1 trillion of sovereign debt around the globe that affected the interest rates. when you think about where our yields are going, they're going lower. >> i get what you're saying on the intellectual basis why the fed is dovish is not good. at the same time, the fed is dovish -- >> this is important. where is the yield negative? japan, europe. down 20%, both of them. that's telling you something. i don't know what else you need to know. if our rates aren't going higher, and that is the trend, and there's no growth globally, and our data is slowing down, we've got a real problem here.

have a ball, people, buy it, but i'm telling you, i don't think it's going to stay there. >> buy it, ride it, protect it, that way you have an opportunity to at least ride along. if guy's right and we have a blow through the top, because of the points you just brought up, negative interest rate, you talked about europe, different parts of asia, put your money somewhere. people aren't getting a yield anywhere. you're looking at the stock markets. that's why you're seeing some of these -- look at the charts as well. the exact that the xle continues to hold on to the 200-day moving average, holding that for an extremely long period of time, the financials got the boost when it sold off, now you get a little bit of a lift, look at the material space right now. look at the way iron ore and the different areas have been performing recently. a little bit of hiding, looking around where is the spot if we're going to move to the upside. what has the most explosive moves right now. i think that's where people are piling in their money. >> where are you, karen? >> i'm on the bullish sector, not just to be contrarian to

dan. but that's my natural inclination. you say the u.s. must go where everyone else is going. i look at it and say why is it that europe can't find a bid. i think -- >> you saw that manufacturing data last week, right? that's why. that's the problem. >> i think actually stimulates. it will work as it works here. >> we had a sub-1 print for gdp. what's working here? >> if you look at the economy here, i think the economy -- first of all, versus europe, it's in much better shape. i think they could tend closer to where we are than us necessarily going where they are. i don't accept your premise. you could be long stuff, the vix is low here. you're not paying a ton for protection. so i think -- i'm definitely always biased long. >> you talk about materials, energy, why are they having such a year? because of the dollar. what does the weak dollar mean? that is the qe playbook that we know so -- i'm telling you, it's

saying, yields aren't going anywhere, and the dollar is down 5% since the beginning of the year. what's next is low yields and possibly negative interest rates. when i see where all the sovereign debt is negative, i'm seeing equity markets -- >> you respect the price action. where would you be -- >> in between dan and karen and pete. i get all the different arguments. i don't think the economy is that strong. i don't think the qe helped the economy. i think it really helped the stock market. but listen, that's been the argument all along. i come down, this is -- where do i come down? you absolutely have to respect the price. you don't like it, but look at the russell. we're within, in my opinion, you get the close above 120. that appears to be breaking out. pete's financials, hanging in there, despite a flattening yield curve. the semiconductors starting to show a bid again. despite everything we talked about, in my inclination to be bearish on both the market and

economy, i look around and say f it hasn't sold yet, what's -- >> the option market on friday, when the tape looked the worst that it looked on friday, i looked over at the financials, bank of america, who did they start jumping onto? they went to bank of america the option. huge upside coal buying there as well. the regional banks. when it looks worst, it seems like people want to get themselves positioned. >> 175,000 -- >> i don't know. >> i don't know either. i can tell you this, when i see extremely low volatility and somebody buying puts, i'm looking at that saying, what a perfect time to have a hedge against jpmorgan, against goldman sachs. against citibank, bank of america. whatever you want to pick. you can see that as protection far more so than a negative in my opinion. >> are you inclined to be short? >> let me tell you something. there's no june raise. july is very unlikely. if they don't go in september,

all your bank stocks are going much lower. look at the european bank index. it's a disaster. it really is, for all intents and purposes a disaster. i think our banks are going to test the prior lows. >> that's where i disagree. i don't mean to go down this rabbit hole, but i'm not sure there's no june rates. >> it's pricing at 2% raise. >> everybody says she's dovish. i don't know. all these fed officials for the last few months have been saying a rate hike is coming. they've been trying to signal something. i get what she said today. depending on your dog ma, we all have it. you can make it sound like whatever you want it to sound like. >> the rorschach test? >> june. >> or july. >> get july. september, which everybody is talking about, you can see the percentages in there. you're getting awfully close to the election. i think september is a difficult one honestly. july makes more sense. >> the big story today, what janet yellen said.

take a listen. >> i continue to believe that it will be appropriate to gradually reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation provided that labor market conditions strengthen further. and inflation continues to make progress toward our 2% objective. >> despite the optimism, our next guest said that would be a mistake. david rosenberg, chief economist joins us from toronto. david, welcome back to the program. you know, it just says they're talking about getting ready for a rate increase. you were actually saying we're sort of in the opposite situation. we're headed for a recession? >> well, i didn't say we were headed for recession. my friday employment writeup, what i had said is that there are some details beneath the surface than in the past for a broader economic downturn. i didn't come on the call for a session, but i did say i'm

worried nonetheless. >> so why don't you explain for this downturn, since that's the way you're seeing the world set up right now? what can we expect? >> calling for a downturn, i mean, we've come off some very sluggish gdp numbers in the past few quarters. it's basically explaining what's going on. what's happened is that the back-to-back declines in productivity in the fourth and first quarter, when you have labor input, 2.5% annual rate, that was the gap that had to be closed. it's going to be closed either by business output catching up to employment or employment catching down to business output. companies are now reacting to a very weak productivity back drop by rationalizing on labor. this will in turn have an impact on personal income and on consumer spending as we go through the rest of the spring and into the summer months. but it's not really calling for a recession. it is saying that recession risk

cannot be taken lightly. but it's just highlighting the fragility of the economy, here we are seven years into the expansion and there's still no evidence at all despite all the monetary accommodation that we've achieved anything close to the escape velocity. >> so is there going to be a rate hike in july or june? >> i don't see the case for it. once again, people are going to talk about what a fed bank president said here, and a fed bank president said there. they have a voice. sometimes they don't even have a vote. for whatever reason, people in the media treat what the fed bank president has to say with the same degree as to what fischer, dudley or janet yellen has to say. janet yellen today said, look, if employment growth ends up strengthening and we meet our labor market goals, and if inflation gets a 2% and stays there, yes, under those conditions we're going to raise interest rates. even my 16-year-old son knows

that. the question you have to ask yourself, is that with the employment numbers deteriorating as they have, and with the 2% cap, not just in the u.s. but globally, where exactly is the person going to come from? i think janet yellen today kind of threw her brother under the bus. we have a fed meeting around the corner. she's a team player. but her voice matters the most. and when you take a look and read the actual text, in a 14-page sermon, she used the word uncertainty 15 times. now, i don't remember anybody else in their speeches lately using the term uncertainty 15 times. after being in this business for 30 years, a central bank chief who has the final vote and the loudest voice uses the term uncertainty 15 times, 11 times in the march 29th speech that she gave in new york, is a central banker that's not going to be doing anything for the foreseeable future. >> david, thanks so much for joining us. good to see you. >> you, too.

>> all right. so any of you off the table? >> i think they have to -- listen. that's what makes markets. i think they've been out there talking it up just because they're sending out those test balloons. i think they have to raise not because the economy's getting better, i think they need to give themselves runway, god forbid something happens on the back end of the year. >> agree. i think, though, what i wonder, though, let's say they do raise. and they shouldn't. where does one think the most damage would come from doing that? in some areas, i think really what would the damage be? we're already -- it's a big move on a relative basis, an absolute basis it's very slim. we move the bond market a lot. i'm not sure that -- how big of a misstep it would be. i don't know. >> i think that's a good point. >> i actually think it's an okay point at best. i'm just kidding. but let's think back.

where's all this volatility starting since 2014. when qe and in the fourth quarter of 2014, we saw what the dollar started to rally. industrial commodities started to get killed. we saw emerging markets taking it on the chin like brazil and that sort of thing. when we got to the end of zerp, what happened again, we had massive pap pi tagss. you know, we raised interest rates for the first time in december. look what happened in january and february again. >> reits was on the verge of absolutely spinning out of control. in july, you had the oil market again fall off a cliff. it's not -- those two things ruled the market. i don't think it was because of the prospect that they were going to raise by a quarter. >> but i think it has to do with that. when you think about what's gone on here, so the commodities, the fact that they've been able to stabilize put a lot of emerging market growth in a massive downturn off the table for right

now. >> to the dollar? >> look, i think -- >> they shouldn't have raised. >> then the dollar is stronger. >> i don't think they're going to raise in june. i don't think they're going to raise in july. i think at best in december. i don't think it really matters. i think the bigger issue is, look where global sovereign debt is. >> because of the fact of the jobs number and brexit, as that continues to be something that's pushing, that's why i think june's most likely really truly off the table. that's where we might disagree. but i think july could be right back on. >> up next, the battle of the tech heavy weights between amazon and google. who will win in the race to become the next $1,000 stock. the traders are taking sides. looking for big returns? we've got a simple strategy that has crushed the market since 1990. we'll tell you what that is. later, it's the famous chart that has all of wall street talking. it could rock the global market. the woman behind that call when "fast money" returns.

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session, about $731.50. but alphabet, another big stock remains close on the yields of amazon, trading right at $731 a share. both stocks have had massive gains. hefty returns along the way. pete? >> i think you've got to go with bezos. i know all of us at the desk struggle with the idea, we look at the multiple and we can't get our arms around it. it's ecommerce. that's a monster for them. you look at the cloud space, and they have got competition from google, from microsoft. but they've got that space as well. prime, and the growth internationally. this is a monster growing company that dumps money into themselves time and time again. the market for whatever reason over the years has been able to embrace that and say they're going to give them a pass. because of that i think the stock can get over $1,000. keep an eye on shipping logistics. that is the next part of that business that's going to push them over $1,000. >> i agree with pete.

when you think about it, you have to think about the mark caps. google's got about a $500 billion market cap. amazon $350. if you're going to place your chips on something, you would say amazon has a much better shot to get there. the stock was at $450 a year ago and at $730 now. what's it going to matter if it's $1,000. google acts very poorly. >> what's up with google? >> nothing. sort of just treading water. i still like it. amazon's smaller, $34 billion move. it seems more likely, but it doesn't make me want to be in amazon. i wouldn't short it, though. absolutely wouldn't short. >> next up here, best buy, tough day for the stock, falling more than 3% on the news of the ceo shold 12.8 million in stock.

joly. >> never a good sign. here's a stock that made an all-time high. not a big multiple. the optics are just not good. just doesn't auger well. regardless of the reason. i have no idea what the reasons were. maybe he wants to buy stevie cohen's house out in the hamptons. >> too late. >> god only knows. but just doesn't look good. best buy to me still has problems. still has issues. despite the valuation, which is reasonable. there's a shortage, continues to agree, people are betting against it because of what pete just talked about, amazon and the likes. i would rather own amazon at that multiple than best buy at ten times forward earning. >> he said he sold to diversify his overall personal holdings. >> they had $55 billion in sales four or five years ago. it's a structural short. obviously you can talk about

amazon, whichever you want. i think, listen, good for him. >> it's got to be a negative tell. we all love the idea of, hey, you need to be diversified. >> you love wynn, because steve wynn bought. >> i love the wynn stock. you see this happening, and you scratch your head and say, maybe the best has been in the rear view mirror at this point in time for best buy. >> he should be all in. all in. >> he should be all in, i agree. >> i'm betting on my company, betting on myself. >> his kids need braces and need to go to college and all that kind of stuff. >> but when you take off -- >> i'm just saying. i would rather him say, i'm all in. like what do they call that in poker. >> jamie dimon -- >> i love jamie dimon. >> good example. good job by you. >> still ahead, the super bowl for drugs and happening right now in chicago. meg terrell joins us with a

special report. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> that was freaky. but not nearly as scary as the black swan events whacking the global market. the economist who made the call will explain. plus, one simple strategy has been clobbering the market since 1990. way simpler than that. we'll tell you what it is. and how you could beat the market. when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." let's look at the shares of the russell 2000 ervgs tf. over the last three months the etf has gained more than 10%. it's now year-to-date highs. what does it signal about the broader market? i would think this would be a bullish indicator of the market. >> we talk about the rotations throughout the market and where they're coming in and out of. i think this is another great side of it. i think at the top of the show that's why there was a big debate is this thing ready to break out. i think it is. i'm not totally against the idea we could tip over very rapidly, but i think it's a healthy sign to see the way the russell's trading as of late. >> all these sort of riskier sectors are rallying. >> i think the iwm, the russell needs to close above 120. i think the xlf is hanging in

there. the ibb is getting interesting here. i think it rolls over. but we'll see. i think if the transports can sort of bounce again, then you're on to something here. there's no denying the strength of the underlying market. whether you like it or not. i don't like it, but you can't deny that it's going on. >> i'm not so impressed. it's up 25% from the february lows. >> i'm just saying, what stocks can you push around. what stocks have data. the small caps. 25% off its lows. it's still down. i think here's the thing. large caps aren't moving. we're stuck in this perpetual state. it ripped up here. it's still 90% from the all-time highs last year. not so impressed. >> up next, safe and sure way to beat the market. it may have something to do with several stocks you already own in your portfolio. brazil has been on a tear since the first part of the year.

a fresh year-to-date high after janet yellen hinted that the economy is in better shape than wall street thinks. energy leading the rally, surging 2%, as crude oil settled just under the key $50 a barrel level. here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. the super bowl for drugs. meg terrell is at the conference in chicago with what could be the next big catalyst for biotech stocks. plus, is the next black swan event lingering on the horizon? the market could take a serious downturn in the next couple of weeks. we start off with interest rates. 23% of bonds globally yielding less than 0%. yes, negative interest rates. what's one place investors can find yield right now. chart master, breaking it down at the smart board.

hey, carter. >> i want to look at dividend yielding etfs. we know global sovereign bond aggregates are the lowest on record, 60 basis points. so today's piece research was about finding stocks that maybe can offer you something in a world where there is no yield. i started out with this chart. i think it's good optics. you've got the s&p 500 itself. orange line. and the total return. the numbers speak for themselves. meaning, a good part of your -- almost double, of course, is you're getting from the compounding effect of dividends. just what we know. it's classic. i want to introduce a third line. this is the same chart as page one. but this now includes something known as the s&p 500 dividend aristocrats index. over the past 25 years consistently raising their dividends. it's nothing short of a blowout. it speaks to not just finding the google of tomorrow, the tesla, but also the long-term

importance of having investments that give you yield. so what i wanted to look at is the two most liquid etfs, the dvy, the stocks in the s&p and others that have high yield. versus the not as liquid. and you see, of course, these two are leading the market. what i see here is that this is still a place, even though they've outperformed, i think you have a heads you win, tails you win, in the sense the markets go higher, you can participate. if the market would falter at the past peak, i think you get the defense of the yield. this, again, is the more liquid of the two etfs. you can draw the lines as a double bottom. you can draw the lines with a break from the downtrend. and then what appeals to me here is the double bottom in this tight range. we're just moving on. if you were to measure the width of this range and project to here, you've got another 3%, 4%.

we like this as a way to be exposed equities for those who think equities have risk to them still. >> can you give us more granularity to the components? will that follow this projection that you're making, carter, in terms of the larger -- >> the year-to-date, they're not big sectors. utilities at 3%. the way the bonds are acting, i think you're better off in this kind of environment. it's big staples, tobacco, and other consumer -- utilities, reits, and so forth. >> karen, you're a value investor. can you wrap your head around utilities trading at, what, 22 times current pe right now? compared to the s&p -- >> no. >> even despite carter's beautiful charts over there? >> i don't know how to read carter's beautiful charts.

even when he draws charts for dumbies. so it's not -- no, i can't. >> pete? >> i like looking at the charts. i think he explains them very well. when i'm looking for yield, i start with other things. i look at the fundamentals. i look for growth. names like cisco, or look at -- what have i owned for a long period of time? pharmaceutical names like merck, pfizer, bristol-myers. i'm getting the yield he's talking about. but i also like the growth and the fundamentals of the company. >> i know you're technical -- >> the valuation, if you're going to do dividend discount models, whatever karen is working on, i've done all those things, yields and dividends are, if you look at them now, they're not much worse than the market, frankly. if you really want to get into that. growth, no growth, these are very payable dividends. the dividends in much of the s&p under question.

>> guy? >> xlu is expensive for a reason. it makes sense it's trading at a premium. it doesn't mean it's not expensive. it doesn't mean it's not going to get crushed if rates do in fact go up. you can understand why it's expensive. you can understand why it can last a lot longer than people give it credit for. >> but the question is, you buy -- >> what's the question? >> do you buy dividend etf, soup and cereal and detergents and -- >> i'm going to step on your toes here. but i'm on the pfizer train. you're a bristol guy. >> i own all three. >> giddyap. i think these are things that are very reasonable valuations. obviously plenty of headwinds. maybe a lot of that has abated this year. i think those are probably pretty decent to own right here. that thing is breaking out. whatever line you want to draw, it's pretty nice looking. it's important to remember that some of the things that are in there, there are cyclical names in there, lockheed, caterpillar,

that sort of thing. it's not just utilities. >> carter, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> he's like the rothco of charts. >> aristocrat. >> right, pete? >> i think of him. >> moving on. coming up, the next black swan event. why a potential brexit later this month could cause more pain than investors think. the world's biggest cancer research meeting is under way today. meg terrell is there live. all that, and much more, right after this break.

if great britain decides to leave the european union later this market, there's speculation it could cause a market jolt. >> the prognostications of gloom are wildly overdone. i think it's a massive opportunity for uk business. and those who have been -- who are currently very negative about brexit. >> our next guest said it's one of the many things which could contribute to an unpredictable

black swan event for the market. ma kayla, welcome to the show. >> thank you. >> it's one of actually four black swans. what are the probabilities of these actually coming to fruition? >> i think when you look around the world today, what we have to see is, the economy as a whole looks fine. but once we start scratching below the surface, we realize there are a lot of big policy changes going on here in the u.s., big discussion around the fed, what happens next, hike, no hike, when does it happen. clearly an uncertainty point. in europe, you mentioned brexit as one of the uncertainty points. it's not the only political event we have on the agenda. we have spanish elections coming up, an italian referenda, coming into next year, french and german elections. a lot of policy moving around of the china, too. lots of policy changes happening there. i think when we look around the world today, there's a lot of policy pieces moving.

and from an investor's point of view, what you need to be thinking about is how much of that risk is the market taking into account. now, i would argue at the beginning of the year, we were taking a lot of those risks into account. but recently, we've seen volatility really coming down a lot. markets have been much more complacent about this. i think some of those risks are being underpriced. what is the risk that the policy uncertainty drags in europe? becomes twice as big? i think that's a 40% risk. china, 30% risk. something going wrong around the fedex peck tags? 25%. >> we were showing the four black swans you were outlining in your most recent note. most people think of black swans as events that are unpredictable, that nobody has any idea are coming. but all these things, as you mentioned, at the beginning of the year could happen. are they black swans in that we price them out? >> you're raising a very good point. it's a little bit provocative of me to do a black swan chart, i

realize that. but if you think about it, we've had a lot more black swan events in the past, sort of 15, 20 years, than we were supposed to have had, if you were looking at the pure definition of what a black swan is. if you think about it, each of these events, somebody out there had warned us that they were going to be happening. so the reason i think i can do a black swan chart is because black swan events have become more frequent. i think this is the reality of the new market configuration we've been in for some time now. >> of the black swans you've laid out, talk about the brexit one. depending on the outcome, how do you think the markets fare? >> i think what we need to consider is if brexit were to happen, independently of what happens in the future, there will be a lot of things that need to be renegotiated, rediscussed. so you'll have a moment of uncertainty in the market, because the markets will be wondering what will be the new trade arrangements for the uk.

so whether ultimately it's a better arrangement, or a less good arrangement, i think for the markets, the focus will be on that uncertainty. that's what we've seen the markets responding to recently. we have seen more market uncertainty moving along with the opinion polls. so to me that's what we're really looking at today. >> you mentioned the three, four, five potential black -- could the actual black swan, though, be three or four of them actually take place, one leading to the next? >> i think when i talk about the black swans, what i really wrant to convey is the idea that there is uncertainty out there that we need to be aware of. so when i think about it, in relation to the markets, the market seems to go from one extreme of worrying tremendously about it to going to the other extreme of not being worried at all. i think the reality, you know, we always like to have a very black and white view. but i think the reality is somewhere in between. right now, i think that we've gone to the other end of the scale, where we become a little

bit more relaxed about all these risks. but i do think they're out there. could they all happen at the same time? you can always make a very, very bleak scenario. the reality is, though, that when these types of events start to unfold, you will see policy responding to it. and perhaps, you know, at the end of the day, that would be the biggest surprise of all is what is the next policy response. and i would look to japan here, because if you think about the monetary policy, we've done a lot of unorthodox things in this crisis. i think the next unorthodox could be fiscal policy. and that's basically what we're beginning to see in japan is that it's a fiscal policy response supported by monetary policy. sometimes we refer to this as a helicopter. but that's essentially what i think the next unorthodox tool would be. >> you mentioned european policy. and a bunch of european elections. what about the u.s. elections? is that a black swan? is trump a black swan? >> it's very interesting when we think about the u.s. election,

because we've heard many different stories around it. first, we heard that trump would be an unlikely candidate to win. hillary would win. now we're hearing that if ever trump is to win the presidency, you'd be in a situation where he wouldn't have a majority in both congress and senate. so it would be more gridlock in washington. but certainly that would be another one of those uncertainty events for the markets. what type of policy would we ultimately see from trump? when i listen to what we hear, if he were to win the election, basically what i'm hearing is a lot of fiscal expansion. >> so should we draw another swan in the chart here for trump? >> gold swan? >> a gray swan maybe? >> i think, you know, the message i really want to convey with this chart is there are uncertainties out there. if you're looking at the

markets, you want to be thinking about what type of pricing is volatility giving you. >> sure. >> and volatility right now is not giving you a very high price. so i think it's an attractive thing to look at. >> okay. thanks so much for coming by. >> thank you. >> you know, we talked about spot vix all the time, 13 handle on it right now. if you look out to november, they're pricing about 20. we topped out earlier in the year when things were really going haywire. so there is risk being priced into it. you know, we talk about owning protection and things like that. protection can be expensive, especially when the vix gets down here and you're owning options. so, you know, you have to be very tactical. >> think about the uncertainty. she mentioned the word i don't know how many times now, and janet yellen mentioned it 15 times. so uncertainty is the reason why you actually have to have these hedges in place. and you see volatility as low as this. yes, it's rising as you get further out on the curve. still, it's inexpensive in terms

of any of those swan events actually coming to be. >> you asked specifically about brexit. how concerned are you about that in your portfolio? >> i'm not positioned for it. i think most likely there is no brexit. even with the last few days of moving in a different direction. i'm not. >> how are you feeling about the swans? >> we're not even talking about venezuela. that place is blowing up. that's not even on anybody's radar screen. mine has been central bank missteps. one of the things i've said, our central bank, the policies of our central banks have allowed empowered other central banks to act in kind. they're not equipped to do the things we're doing here. my opinion. japan, going down a very dangerous road. dan mentioned it, $10.5 trillion of negative sovereign yields right now. that's crazy. back to the united states in terms of percentage of bonds out there, it's astronomical. >> all right. up next, brazil's stock market has been on fire this year.

we'll tell you why one trader is betting that run is about to come to a screeching halt. the so-called super bowl of drug conferences is under way right now in chicago. meg terrell is there live with the very latest. meg? >> hey, melissa, they don't call it the super bowl of drug companies for nothing. the world's largest cancer research conference. it sent stocks flying in both directions. we break it down after the break.

welcome back to "fast money." some call it the super bowl of drug conferences. otherwise known as the asco conference, well under way in the windy city of chicago. our own meg terrell is there with the biggest winners and losers so far. hey, meg. >> let's start on the bad news, melissa. the biggest loser, people are saying is abbvie. they spent $5.8 billion on this company. people were excited to see the lung cancer data at the conference. they downgraded the stock today, they were pretty underwhelming. and the allocation strategy as a result of this. trading down today. 3.4% today. on the more positive side, let's

look at some of the winners. juneau and kip. both working in a hot area of immune oh therapy. taking cells out of their bodies to better fight cancer and giving them back to the patients. up 10% today on updates at the conference. bristol-myers and merck working in another class of immunotherapy drugs. you saw a bump of about 2% in bristol-myers today. more good news than bad news out of this conference, melissa. >> meg, i do want to ask you about the move in the after-hours session, can you give us the latest on that? >> this just came out. sarepta announcing the fda requiring more on the protein for muscular dystrophy. the company saying in a short statement, they are going to provide the data. they don't need to take any new biopsies or anything like that, they can provide it to the fda

and they're hoping for a prompt response on whether the fda will approve this drug. basically any whisper about any of this decision, that's why the stock is moving so much. >> meg, thank you. pete, you had been in serepta calls. >> it performed pretty well. i got lucky. i'm out so i'm not participating in this at all. what's interesting about what meg's talking about, how many big farmo names are part of this as opposed to just the biotech world. obviously the issues with the cancer drug that wasn't as good. it's interest iing biotech we'r seeing out of the big pharma name. >> the levels looking interesting at this point. >> very interested in seeing valeant tomorrow. it's curious, why are they needing more data -- >> because it's not a know. >> okay. >> any hope of them saying yes, it goes up.

that's what it seems like when it comes to this stock. >> deferred at harvard, like it wasn't a flat-out no. >> oh, hold on. >> there was still hope. >> you have no accepts of humor. >> by the way, we're on the show 1:00 to 3:00 on friday. meg came on before she was flying to chicago. you said, what biotech name would you like going into the conference? what did i say? you don't remember, i know. i said kite pharma. >> you did say kite. >> if you want to do karaoke, do it with meg terrell. >> she's awesome. >> where's dan? >> smart board. >> smart board, breaking down a bearish trade on brazil's stock market. >> mel, it was in the ewz call volume, two times average daily volume. it was likely somebody who was kind of rolling out of the trade. the app was trading $27 today.

a seller of 40,000 of 33 calls. selling at 92 cents to close. about $7 million in options premium. when you think about what's going on here, which is the largest equity index in brazil, massive run off the lows. ewz, one of the best performing global etfs out there. up 60% almost off of its 2016 lows here. look at the chart. we just had this really interesting bounce off 25 bucks. it had a double rejection there at 30. right about the midpoint, this thing could be range bound for the time being, after such big gains. i want to show you, this is a chart of implied volatility. how much the ewz has been moving. it's down an awful lot from january. but it's coming in, and it could be coming in harder. if the etf is going to be range bound for some time, could be a

tough way to stay long in calls. i just want to make one other point. this is the seven-year chart. this is still in a massive downtrend. it's really important, when you see mass itch gains off of a big, big low to put it in some sort of context here, up 50% from the lows, when it's still down a whole heck of a lot from the highs and still in a downturn. but i do believe if you're looking to make directional bets, doing so with options is probably the way to do it. >> check out the full show of "options action" at 5:30 on friday. coming up next, the "final trade." here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.

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the "final trade." pit boss. >> spread a little fertilizer out there, potash. it's going a little higher. it's going up. >> i thought you were talking about the show. >> no. >> if you were in kors for the earning, it's a good time to take a little money off the table. it had a nice run. >> citibank follows with europe, though they're much leveraged. >> june 1st, chip wilson said he was dissatisfied, his word, not

mine, with lululemon. i said pete's wearing them, i'm buying it. look what the stock has done since. >> nicely done. >> i'm melissa lee. be back here tomorrow at 5:00. don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not just to entertain you but to keep you and call me. call me at 1-800-743 hi- -- no likes to be disciplined and they don't like to