but the other thing is, putting on a sweater is not a passive/aggressive move toward your colleagues. >> by the way, we know these thermostats aren't really responding to what people are doing to them either. but that's another story. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast, one top technician said he's identified, get this, a disturbing trend that can take us even higher. plus, trump versus clinton, it's getting realer by the day. how do you position your portfolio. our traders have some answers. later, gold closing at its highest level in three weeks. that's got peter shift very excited. he will be here with his craziest call yet on the yellow metal. but we start off with the

markets. the market closing at another high. a move that's got everyone scratching their head. earliee today, howard hudnick, brought up what could be the reason why. >> it's a risk-on world. if i'm going to retire some day, i've got to make some money, what am i going to buy. i'm going to buy stocks. >> and he might be on to something. in fact, take a look at this chart, courtesy of bank of america. the number of people over the age of 65 is growing. and growing fast. that's the orange line there. could it be that in a world with no yield, there is no alternative to stocks. brian kelly, the biggest bear -- >> listen, that's my biggest fear. everybody's worried about the market falling apart. my fear is we get some kind of a meltup. it looks like we're starting to have that. that chart that we just showed there of people getting older, to me that ultimately is the biggest bearish case for the markets. ultimately the people are going to retire, start drawing that

income. but between here and there, maybe that's what it is. i'm not buying into it. to me, nothing changed fundamentally. but every day the market keeps going higher. the buy orders are coming in. people are buying diskrin natally. >> fundamentals haven't driven anything here. possibly the intended consequences of this are the debt refi ratios are picking up dramatically. which means bankrupt firms are actually able to survive another day. in fact, effectively at significantly lower rates. we're in a place where i think the bridge to the other side is actually working. and if you look at credit and commodities, things are -- i mean, i've been off the desk for most of the last week. where did it close up today? 51 and change. for that -- >> is that a good thing? >> it's a good thing if you're a banker or oil partnership. now oil is up almost 100% off the lows. people are spending more on gasoline. so they're not buying retail.

maybe the bridge to the other side is there. to me, it just seems like it's not a very sustainable type of thing. >> they didn't spend more when the gas prices were low. >> i don't look at gas prices, as oil being up a hundred percent. it was at 27 or wherever it touched, artificially low. i think the question is more, why is oil here, not that it's here. if it's here, only on the supply diminution, that's one thing. but i do think there's demand there as well. to me demand is a u.s. economy, a global economy that's not dead. which to me is a good thing. >> you guys are actually saying it's not just -- demographic trend or what, there are fundamentals underpinned in this. >> i've been saying for a long time the fundamentals in oil, price was not truth. some of the biggest oil consuming nations in the world, we talked a lot about india today. their oil demand is up 10% year

over year. that grows and grows and grows. cheap oil is good for them. cheap oil means demand for producers that have taken so much offline, that the supply side is not even going to be there. >> guy, how are you. >> nice to sit next to you, by the way. >> very brave. >> listen, first of all, i'm not bullish. i thought the s&p would stop at 20, 25, kudos to tim and karen that have been steadfast throughout this entire thing. i understand why we're higher as well. i get what tim is saying. my concern, or b.k.'s concerns as well, the stock market is, in my world, is not cheap by any metric whatsoever, right? but people are being forced in risk assets. maybe that's been the game all along and to your point, maybe it is a bridge to something. my biggest fear is, though, that you have to bet central banks will not take any missteps. again, the corners that they're all painting themselves into continues to get smaller and smaller. i think at a certain point

something happens that derails it. clearly that's not the concern right now. >> there's no problem with expressing concern about central bank experiments that to me are in a very new place. but it's how you manifest that in a trade and how you actually put this stuff on. and trying to gain a black swan event is something that's impossible. it's been very, very painful for anybody that's tried to do it, because in fact even though things have gotten more absurd, i agree, brian kelly, ecb starts buying more bonds today, don't think that didn't have a massive impact around the rest of the world, but the bottom line is, i don't see where this stops. and i think tina is the trade. this is no alternative. >> that's where we are. tina is the trade. that's the case and you're going to get a meltup, that's fine. but ha we saw in december and january, what got me so bearish is what you see interest rates rising, that will stop this thing dead in its tracks. not necessarily about a 25 basis point, but start to see inflation manifest itself in

oil, commodities, those types of things, when the fed has to raise rates and/or some of our international creditors sell off bonds, that will stop this bull market. i thought it was happening in january. >> i actually think if these things start to rally, that's good stuff. inflation, we want inflation. we want commodity prices to be doing what they're doing. i think ultimately that's a sign of things getting healthier. >> looks like there's acknowledgement on the desk of the force that tina has in these markets. in this environment, you guys are a little more on the cautious side. you see tina, you acknowledge the risk, you believe there are fundamentals that underpin this as well. how do you invest in this environment? >> it's actually despite the fact that the stock market was going to sell off, what i think is going up continues to go up. look at gold today. look at gold miners today. look at how resilient the bond market continues to be. i'll say that the tlt is still a buy. i do think ten-year goes to 1 1/4. german bonds, 30-year rates here in the united states, it all

points to the bond market continuing to get squashed down. at some point b.k. is going to be right and the bond yields are going to explode higher. but i think they go lower first. >> all of our jobs is not to make sure b.k. is right, it's to make money in the market. i can tell you i've been concerned about the s&p 500. i'm not really trading that. what i am doing, though, is i bought some tlt today, because we had a very good auction. i bought gold and silver. if we have that inflationary type of scare or increase, gold and silver will do well. as a hedge or maybe the dollar is a hedge, the gold is a hedge, long the u.s. dollar if the fed raises interest rates. >> the glass half full side of it. karen, what do you do? >> if some of these things happen and the fed does raise, i don't really get the gold play there. okay? i thought part of the gold play, we'll get to it more i guess with peter, and he'll yell about it, and i don't know if i'll understand it more. but to me, the fed's raising.

i don't see that as necessarily bullish for gold. >> what do you do here? >> nothing really different. the vix is low. hedge your portfolio for not a lot of money. >> emerging markets have had the biggest move since yellen, the payroll number. even things like the mexican peso, which is more of a barometer of things oversold. 3520 on the eem, that's a level to watch. again, we talk charts and rich ross is going to talk cool stuff, the head and shoulders bottom on emerging, very interesting. that's the bottom of the neckline. it looks like emerging could explode. it's in the currencies. that's where you'll see the most out30r78 answer. >> talking all technical here. traders stayed op the sidelines, in fact volume is at its lowest level since the week of christmas, leading some to question whether it's a bad sign for this rally. let's go off the charts with rich ross. rich? >> hi, melissa. thank you. the chart that i have behind me

here is the volume on the diamond etf. as you pointed out, the volume is actually lower than the half day that precedes christmas. the good news is, you don't have to worry about that. i stared at a thousand charts a day, and this is not one of them. you see volume surge back here. this is stocks collapsing, volatility rising. people panic out, but they don't panic in. look at this, what happens here. the market rallies. and volume, just erodes away. we continue to rally. so once again, we panic out, we don't panic in. classic market psychology. now, we all know the world is a scary place. we shouldn't even get out of bed in the morning if you read the newspaper or the internet. but when you look at the chart of the s&p 500, it's not scary at all. it's a pretty bullish chart. broken out from a nice month-long period of consolidation. this could give you another 80 to 100 points of upside if you ignore the news. we could go a little bit further, give yourself a nice head and shoulders continuation

pattern that gives you upside to 2420, not tomorrow, but over time. when we zoom out, look at this longer term, look, once again, i'm a technician, i focus purely on the price action of the market itself. if we get a breakout from the multiyear trading range, to a fresh all-time high, that's accompanied by an expansion of breadth across the board with a weaker dollar to support crude, credit and emerging market currencies, the three biggest culprits for the decline back in january, that's particularly bullish. you take the height of this pattern, project that up. around 2400 over time. obviously as we know, there's plenty of things that can derail it. sticking to the charts themselves, the world is the opposite of a scary place. >> upside to 2400 over time. is that the upper band of that little channel that you drew straight across in the s&p 500? what will get you to convincingly -- right now this is the forecast based on that. but does the s&p have to actually breach that upper line for you to be convinced?

>> i think clearly as a technician, you want to wait for the break. you don't want to anticipate. if you're going to feel better about the world on a breakout, you should start feeling better about it right now. all of the action across asset classes for me suggest that you're going to get that breakout once again. the expansion of market breadth is quite dramatic. this is not a big call to say we're getting a breakout. we're talking 20 s&p points here. i think the breakout is imminent. we're talking one week to one month. the fed and brexit will fall by the wayside like y2k. i don't think we'll have to melt up. 2180, 2220, you get there. >> richard ross, thank you. >> i've been reticent to bring this up. what are we, in june? check this out. it's early in the year, right?

>> well, halfway. >> the low we made on february 11th, i think was 1810 in the s&p. well below 2015's low. the high of 2015 was 2135. what does that all mean? there's actually potential in the s&p for an outside year to the upside. win i don't think i've ever seen in my lifetime. now, i don't want to bring it up because it's june and there's still a half to play. but it's worth keeping an eye on. >> what do you think? >> i think we've talked about charts that look pretty interesting. obviously ones that technically rich was looking at the s&p. look at the euro stocks 50. talk about brexit and talk about things that are really under the weight of i think some news that could change dramatically. even though a lot of people are trading the u.s. market like brexit is okay, and china's okay. even with a stronger euro, you have this entire index down 20% off the highs. there's an argument for earnings growth in the ecb that will continue to support this.

>> up next, something is happening in the global markets that hasn't happened since 2010. it might have you thinking twice before buying. we'll explain. plus, take a look at restoration hardwa hardware falling off the cliff in the after-hours session. goldman sachs sounding the alarm that market despair is right around the corner. they're starting to sound a lot like our friend. he'll join us when "fast money" returns. i asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was

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welcome back to "fast money." very big move since the start of 2016, and with the current multiple of 18, global stocks are the most expensive they've been since dating back to 2010. tim? >> again, we had this conversation in the first block. we know why stocks should be trading expensive. in fact, there are other parts of the world that have recovered from even more dreadful conditions. the msci world, you've got a place here where you've got a very strong argument that i think this thing can continue to go higher. you also have valuations that to me have possibly a tailwind from the currency benefits.

balance sheets also should be rewarded, because i think the balance sheets across the g-3 and mcsi world are as good as thech's been in a long time. the valuations should trade higher. dividend yields are better. earning yields, tina, there she is again. >> here's the thing that worries me. look at deutsche bank here. despite all this cheering, deutsche bank, one of the largest banks in the world, with the largest derivatives books in the world, down today. spanish elections coming up. a lot of things coming out there. after this run, i would be reticent to just be saying, we've got to buy the world. >> we talked about m sci that it's not the greatest proxy. but it's not about current year earnings. because global growth story has slowed down. but the growth actually looks pretty good. what i would look at further

year out, and that trajectory actually seems not so expensive to me. you have to believe that it will -- that growth will return. >> yeah. >> i believe that will happen. >> all right. buy into the future. >> we had flash gordon on last night. let's look at ewg again. that has been in a steep downtrend since the middle of 2014. lower lows, higher highs. what we talked about, getting ahead of it -- what was the word pete used last night or flash used. >> preemptive. >> preemptive. no strike like a preemptive strike. with that said, i'd rather buy at 28 1/2 to breakout than 26 1/2 right here. >> we'll give you the stocks e they're betting will rise. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> america, meet the man who could be your next president.

>> i don't know what i said. i don't remember. i don't remember. maybe that's what i said. >> what are the stocks that could trump the market if the donald becomes president? we're naming names. plus, here's what happened last time tim seymour squared off against peter schiff. and they're raring for a rematch. when "fast money" returns. ♪

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below consensus. gary freedman noting head winds in the market. a general slowdown in the luxury consumer market. in order to curtail the promotional cycle and pull back on the discount that has been occurring, restoration hardware began a membership program for $100 a year. it was a built-in 25% discount. as well as other services. but the company now says the shoppers are taking longer to close those transactions under the new model because there's no urgency to do so from the sales pressure if you get the 25% off all the time. another big unresolved issue is the production delays for its new modern product line. the ceo still thinks it can be a billion-dollar-plus brand eventually, assuming the models are actually ready to shift at some point. >> courtney, remind us, this is a retailer that said because of market conditions and the turmoil in the stock market, people were reluctant to close deals on sofas, et cetera.

the market has come back tremendously since february lows. and they haven't seen any benefit whatsoever. >> exactly. that's what's really interesting. and last quarter, the ceo specifically called out areas like texas, miami, this time in the release he just said in general. in areas where energy and currency has been a problem for the market, it's also been a problem for us. the call doesn't start for another couple minutes. we don't have anything further at this point. it's not surprising the ceo didn't flip-flop as the market has turned back around. >> courtney, thank you. a lot of excuses from this company at this point. >> right. excuses don't deserve a good multiple, that's for sure. it sounds like the macro headwinds, but they're specific to them, issues, cost, and that's one of the really not -- their production problems, i mean, the customer service problems are real. >> aren't those things that they

can overcome? when people look at a stock like this, i think it gets lumped into, this is effectively a retailer. granted, it's in housingwares and whatnot. they're going the way of everybody else, why can't i order this online. i think it's good news they're having stock outages. they'll fix them, and we know that. it could be 70%, and it could be one or two vendors. if you actually believe this company is suffering more from its ineptness, if that's a word, then -- >> that could be a good thing. >> or fixable. >> they've been around for a little while already, right? so some of these issues have plagued them throughout. now there are competitors that do it much better. >> do you believe it's company specific or do you think there's a problem with the global consumer, or consumers' appetite for buying big-ticket items? >> until amazon cracks, comes out with a bad quarter and says we're not selling anything, you'll say it's restoration

specific or whatever it is. now it's macy's specific. until amazon cracks, you're going to be able to say that. so amazon is a trade in that. if you want to buy something at an all-time high. >> inventories up 27% year over year. with sales growth of 8%. which means by definition margins are going to contract. which is exactly what happened. to tim's point, i think karen's point as well, at a certain point i think it's an interesting stock. this will flush itself out. i'm not saying to race out and buy it tomorrow, but if you get where it trades 18, 20 million shares, where it bounced in 2012, and its round trip over the last four years, it will be interesting to watch to see what the volume is tomorrow, and where the stock closes. >> 18 to 20 million shares? >> total volume. >> okay. coming up, the race to the white house rages on. which stocks are poised to perform best under either donald trump or hillary clinton. our traders are naming names. plus, the last time tim seymour

went head-to-head with peter schiff, here's what happened. >> don't -- >> what have you been saying? >> don't put words in my mouth. don't put words in my mouth. >> tonight, peter schiff is back with a vengeance. so much so, he's come here in person. he's making his way on set. he's all riled up. it could get downright explosive. so stay tuned. is that a real t? it's a great school, but is it the right the one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund. ok. sure. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab. the call just came in. she's about to arrive. and with her, a flood of potential patients.

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another year-to-date high today. the s&p a hair away from its may 2015 close. above 18,000 for the first time since late april. here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. the battle for the white house is brewing between trump and clinton. how should you position your portfolio for either candidate. we'll have a special report. plus, one trader bet nearly $5 million that one dow component could surge 50%. we'll tell you the stock and what has the traders so excited.

but first we start off with a wall of worry since the february lows. the s&p 500 has rallied 17%. despite the rally, a number of wall street firms are sounding the alarm on stocks. deutsche bank, bank of america, goldman coming out with bold, bearish calls. deutsche is saying there could be a 20% decline. goldman saying risk in the market is now, quote unquote, elevated. that's starting to sound a lot like what our next guest has been saying for years. let's go bear hunting with peter schiff, president and ceo of euro pacific capital. good to have you here. >> good to be in the studio. >> does it matter they're coming over to your bearish side? are you worried? >> they're still little cubs. they haven't matured into a full-blown bear yet. they have no idea how bad it's going to be. >> how bad is it going to be? >> it's going to be awful. >> how much worse since we saw you last? we got a jobs report that some people say was terrible. >> you remember the financial

crisis of 2008, did you think that was bad? >> yeah. >> this is going to be worse. it's not necessarily going to be concentrated in the stock market. i think the government, the federal reserve, their main goal is to make sure that the stock market doesn't collapse again, to make sure that the real estate market doesn't collapse again. they may succeed, but only by sacrificing the dollar. this crisis is going to be much bigger than the financial crisis. the impact it will have on the average american, standard of living, way of life is going to be much more profound. people won't lose as much money in their stock portfolio, but if they try to sell their stocks and spend the money, the purchasing will be greater than what was lost in '08. of course, '08 gave way to a huge k078back in 2009. we'll not have that kind of reprieve again. >> thanks for coming in to our gym. you make a lot of very important points. a lot of them i actually agree with. the frederal reserve, i think

people are truly suffering. off i'll heard from you for the last five or six years is the market is going to hell in a hand basket. if the dollar is going to hell, in fact, really, almost the opposite has happened. i'm curious, one, how you're positioned now, and ultimately, what you've been doing over the last couple years to counter treasury yields that have fallen a couple hundred basis points, a dollar that's -- as we say, our dollar, your problem. the dollar does what it wants to. until proven otherwise, the dollar is the global standard. >> i haven't been saying stay out of the stock market. i've been saying stay out of the dollar, buy foreign stocks. that trade worked until about 2014. that's when the dollar started to rally. the dollar only started to rally because everybody believed that the fed's program actually worked. that we had a real sustainable recovery. the fed could actually normalize policy, raise interest rates, shrink its balance sheet and everything would be fine. that's why the dollar started to rally. it's only been a couple of years. now people are beginning to

realize that that wasn't true, that the policy didn't work. in fact, it not only didn't work, it made everything worse. we've dug ourselves in a deeper hole. people will find that out when the fed can't raise rates and have to go back to zero. i think the dollar will implode. meanwhile, look at the trade. you mentioned dow hit above 18,000 today. what is it up, 3% on the year? the average gold stock is up 90%. the average silver stock maybe is up twice that much. >> but talking about gold stocks in a very, i think, kind of convenient fashion, the reality is, up to 16 to 18 bucks. what are we doing from 53 down to 6. it's easy to say i'm long gold stocks now. >> i've been long gold stocks since 1999, 1998. it's been a roller coaster ride. >> you're riding through these -- >> we had opportunities to make profits and we've been able to add to our positions. look at even the non-gold stocks. just my strategies that don't even include gold stocks are up

about 15% this year so far. we're only halfway through the year. and i think by the end of the year, those strategies could be up 50%. we are making back the paper losses of the last couple years very quickly. but this trade is just getting started. because the dollar is falling, and gold is rising when people still expect the fed to raise rates. imagine what's going to happen when they expect to cut. >> let me ask you this. so because of what the fed has done, they pushed money out into the world, we have $9 trillion of dollar denominated foreign debt. foreign companies have taken out this debt in u.s. dollars. if the economy starts to get weak, they're going to have to pay back that debt. doesn't that support the dollar? and that to me is the bull case for -- >> no, in fact, as the u.s. economy gets weak, the burden of repaying those debts becomes easier and easier because the dollar goes down. that's going to be the problem. once the u.s. economy -- once the fed has to admit we're in a recession, what are they going to do? they're going to cut rates, print up a bunch of money, the dollar will tank, commodity prices will rise.

all of a sudden a lot of the emerging markets will be in better shape, and the countries hurt by the strong dollar, all of a sudden those economies are going to take off. the problem is going to be america. here's what's going to happen to the fed. even though the fed hikes in december, that will continue. imagine what happens when the fed starts cutting rates as inflation is getting worse. real rates really tank, then the dollar just drops through the floor. >> pete, given the power at this time to make you fed chair, what's the first thing you do? how do you get us out of this problem that i think -- in a lot of ways, i agree a hundred percent with you. how do we solve it? >> we have to do the opposite of what we've been doing all these years. >> what would you do? >> we have to allow interest rates to rise, find a true market level. which is going to be substantially higher than where it is right now. of the fed has to stop buying bonds. but in doing that, we're going

to prick a lot of bubbles, the real estate will crash, it will be 2008 all over again. >> are you writing books right now? trying to make headlines? >> no, i'm trying to answer the question what i would do if i was fed chairman. all we're doing now is giving more drugs to a drug addict. that is not going to solve the drug addict's problem. i want to take -- >> every other central bank in the world is doing the same thing. they're following the fed. >> but they're all making the same mistake. just because somebody jumps off a bridge doesn't mean you have to jump off too. >> you're going to fight global central bank 308 si and say i think stocks are going to go down and i think i'm going to sell bonds because the ponzi scheme to use your term, u.s. treasury market -- did you say that? >> of course it's a ponzi scheme. once the fed lets rates go up, the other central banks are going to do it, too. what's going to happen when rates go up and this bubble economy collapses and all of a sudden americans have to stop consuming, they can't whip out their credit card and buy things -- >> refinancing debt at the best level its even ever --

>> when interest rates go up, they have to default. >> you're saying the world's going to come crashing down, and in fact they're making this all worthless. >> if interest rates go up, the fed can't refinance because the rates are higher. all the short-term debt matures -- >> it's going to go up -- >> it's not going to go up. the banks are failing and stock market is going out and there's no bailouts, the dollar's not going to go up. the only reason the dollar -- >> everyone's going to go out and buy gold? >> you should own gold. >> a safe haven -- every time we've had a global crisis, the dollar has been a safe haven rally. >> it's only a safe haven until people realize it's not safe. there's more risk to the dollar -- >> more people are going to realize it. >> it got a reprieve in 2008. when the financial crisis hit, the dollar was at an all-time record low. it would have kept falling had it not been for that crisis. the next time that happens, the dollar is going to be the

crisis. because people believed the whole time the fed would -- >> they'll buy mmb? come on -- >> for now. >> you're telling me the worst financial crisis we've ever seen, and i know you're telling me it's going to be that much worse and you could sell a couple more books, but the bottom line is here -- that's what we're talking about. this is not stuff that's investable advice. it's advice that's been wrong. >> it's very investable advice. nobody has made money in u.s. stocks for the last couple of years. >> are you kidding me? >> goldman sachs -- >> that's not true. >> flat is the new up. look at some of my mutual funds and see what they've done this year. this is investable advice. but again, wait another year or two, and i'll come back on this program then -- >> i wait another year or two at your level of recommendation, i'd be out of business. i'd be broke. >> you would be able to retire. >> peter, good to see you. >> nice job, mel. >> what do you think?

>> i know we've got to go to break. i believe this, one of the unintended consequences of this fed is to empower other central banks to act in kind. that's sort of what pete is saying here. just because the u.s. is doing it, doesn't mean everybody else should. but they are. this negative interest rate, we talk about over $10 trillion of negative sovereign bonds, it's inherently something wrong there. it doesn't mean the stock market can go higher to tim's point. the one dow component traders think could hit all-time highs. how you can get in. the race to the blouse hewhite heating up. they may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. they're your customers. and by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u.s. retailers meet their demands with more responsive retail models... ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations... creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touch-point.

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just remember this. i'm going to be your champion. i'm going to be america's champion. >> when he says let's make america great again, that is code for, let's take america backwards. >> that was presumptive presidential nominee donald trump and hillary clinton speaking last night. both candidates running on very different philosophies. so how will each impact the market and the economy?

cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us here. we think it's your "fast money" onset debut. >> on this set. for this set. >> a pleasure to have you here in person. how would you break it down? so many market strategists simply say, we don't know enough about donald trump to make any assessment. >> of course, we don't know what either candidate could actually accommodate when they get in. there's overlap in the two positions. let me run through some of the highlights. hillary clinton's economic plan. you start, she wants to raise taxes on the top rate to deal with that income inequality issue she's been talking with bernie sanders about. 30% tax over $1 million. and 30% minimum tax rate for incomes above $1 million. she wants to add to dodd/frank by having a so-called risk fee on the largest financial

institutions. she wants to make medicare bargain, or allow medicare to bargain with drug companies to push down pharmaceutical prices, which have a big effect on that industry. she wants a big increase in infrastructure spending to add jobs and put money in people's pockets. let's go to donald trump. much different at the top line. first of all, donald trump wants to cut the top tax rate to 25%. wants to take another 33 million people off the tax rolls, cut the business tax rate to 15%. he wants to repeal dodd/frank. but here's the overlap between hillary clinton and donald trump. donald trump also wants to allow medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies. donald trump also favors more infrastructure spending on a large scale. in addition to higher defense spending. which is what leads to the final contrast between the two. donald trump, by all estimations, both on the spending side and tax cut side,

his tax cut is enormous. would it exacerbate deficits by quite a lot. $10 trillion over the next ten years. >> $10 trillion. wow. in terms of infrastructure spending as well as negotiation of drug prices, both sides want it. both candidates want it. does that mean in your estimation that those things have the most likelihood of getting through? even if it's a divided congress? >> they ought to. but this is where trump's divergence from the republicans in congress, particularly in the house, makes it difficult to anticipate passage of that kind of a priority. house republicans remain opposed to higher spending, almost across the board. and remember, we had a similar situation in 2008. barack obama and john mccain both ran on a cap and trade system to curb carbon emissions. barack obama got in. the fact that the republican nominee had been in favor of that didn't get anywhere with

republicans. he didn't get that through. >> john, thank you. >> thank you. >> what are the best industries, or sectors to buy when either candidate gets elected? guy, why don't you kick it off. >> left to right now? by the way, john harwood back up here, unbelievable. more cnbc royalty. defense spending of trump -- we've been on the defense stocks for years. i think they continue to go higher. here's the rub with hillary clinton. it doesn't make sense maybe, but i tilts i think you buy. why? because i think rates -- she will want, whether she has power over it or not, i think she'll want the fed to continue to ease. i think you stay long utilities if she gets elected. >> john brought up the fact that health care, both guys are doing the same thing. my pick is health care. i think you're looking at a sector in the stock market that has the best revision ratios. health care continues to grow. i think the valuations here are very interesting.

united health care here is the best. this is a story that neither candidate can avoid. the reality is, these companies will do better and be more profitable if you actually begin to press further on some of this reform. >> karen? >> i think drug companies, negative for both. it's ridiculous that medicare can't negotiate now. i really hope that they can get that through, whoever is the president. that's one. short that. if trump wins, financials, if he repeals dodd/frank, that has been a typical restraint for banks. it would free them up, free capital up. big positive. >> i'll take where karen left off in terms of the financials. if hillary wins, you sell financials. she's going to make it basically impossible for them to make any money. particularly goldman sachs and those types of companies in the capital market. buy defense stocks if trump wins. i think we're going to war, i don't like to say that, but i think it's probably true. you don't want to be in tlt if trump wins. he's talk about renegotiating

the debt. that's code for default. >> even in a world where everybody else has negative interest rates, there's still not going to be a natural bias to u.s. bonds? >> if he wants to negotiate like he has done in his businesses, his business plan, go out there and you lever up as much as you can, and tell people, hey, you know what, we can't pay it. >> that's a schiff-ian comment. you're saying that the structural forces are going to completely reverse because a different guy goes in the white house. that's tough. >> i'm saying if he renegotiates the debt. >> all right. coming up, one new company is closing in on wi-fi for your car. we'll tell you what it is and why it has some established automakers worried. one group of traders are going crazy over this dow component. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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♪ "dinner!" "may i be excused?" get the new xfinity tv app and for the first time ever stream live tv, watch on demand, and download your dvr shows anywhere. welcome back. cnbc's exclusive list of disrupters continues with the ceo trying to bring smart things to life. julia? >> thanks so much, melissa. i'm joined by the ceo of a company called venium. we're here in a van because

venium turns vehicles into mobile hot spots. explain to us what the technology does. >> we're building the internet of moving things. so venium develops these devices and all the software and components that are required to turn vehicles into wi-fi hot spots. and connect them to each other and to the internet. >> what does this mean for autonomous vehicles? >> you're going to need a lot of context information. the vehicle knows to know where it is, what are the objects that are surrounding it. it also needs to detect other vehicles. the best way to do that is actually to communicate with other vehicles. and so this is why we do vehicle-to-vehicle communication and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication. we only use the cellular network when we actually have to because it's very expensive. >> so you're deployed fully in the city of puerto. you're moving into another city? >> that's right. we're starting to deploy in new york city. we already had our first shuttle fleet with the downtown alliance in the lower tip of manhattan. and we hope to grow from there. in puerto, we have the bus

fleet, the taxicabs, and provide free wi-fi to 400,000 users today. >> tell me about your growth plan. how are you going to be able to roll out without having to deal with cities? >> cities like to have private partners to building partnerships where the city doesn't have to pay. where, instead, the city may get revenue out of what the companies are able to produce in terms of data, and in terms of access. mayors like to offer free wi-fi. our model is basically to actually provide this service for fleet operators. our typical customers are private enterprises that have large fleets and our customers come to me and say, we have hundreds of thousands of passengers. we want them to have a great wi-fi experience but we don't want to have to manage the software and hardware and all of that. how much does it cost me per month per vehicle to have this service? and the same for the vehicle data and management services that we provide. >> unfortunately we're out of time. it will be interesting to see

how veniam moves forward. >> thank you, julia boorstin, with her latest disrupter. brian kelly, free wi-fi, more people using wi-fi. >> i think in general, we're talking internet. that's kind of what we're getting at here. for me, the most obvious way is to play a cisco. this seems like a good acquisition for cisco at some point or they'll compete with them. that's probably the way you get at the internet. >> tune in to cnbc tomorrow as we continue the coverage of the 2016 disrupter 50. shifting gears here, one trader is betting millions that one dow stock could hit an all-time high. mike joins us from, seems like maybe a lighthouse? where are you exactly? >> you know, i'm in woods pole, massachusetts, on cape cod. you know, visa used to say, everywhere you want to be. today is at a lighthouse.

it traded ten times the average call volume, we saw a really unusual trade. the january call spread. somebody bought 50,000 of those. why is that unusual? because the stock is just over 80 bucks. more than 35% on the money. the higher one is about 50% out of the money. obviously a big bullish bet. i don't know if it will play out but we'll have a year and a half to figure out whether this one got it right. >> if memory serves me right, the last time he came to us, it was from a chinese restaurant. >> you would think mike would trade prices better after being on the cape. looks a little gloomy out there. sorry. >> well, they're supposed to get some hail maybe, i think. you're right. not timing it too well. >> you better go to the chinese

restaurant. >> five bucks if you can answer these questions. who is from from jaws? and secret agent man? >> no idea. >> johnny rivers. >> dom? >> i know, right? >> mat hooper from jaws played by richard dreyfuss. came from wood pole. >> mike, thank you. mike jning us on the lighthouse. check out the full show of "options action" at 5:30 on friday. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart

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time for the "final trade." brian kelly? >> lots of demand for u.s. bonds right now. tlt, look like it's breaking out. you should buy it. >> a nice run in energy. i took some profits in the partners mlp. >> this is not a schiff-ian call. emerging is still going higher. >> credit to pete coming in.

right? restoration hardware. i think it's going to flush tomorrow on big volume. i think it closes above 30 bucks. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. when it comes to the overall direction of the market some stocks matter a heck of a lot more than others. they just aren't often as visible, and they aren't always