a developing story, terror in orlando. the deadliest shooting ever on u.s. soil kills at least 50 p l people. this morning we're learning about the killer and his motive. the market saw a big sell-off in asia after stocks in europe are trading lower. and the u.s. futures point to a negative open here at home. it is monday, june 13, 2016. and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen.

>> and i'm wilfred frost. we'll be joined live from orlando, florida, in just a moment. as we look at the u.s. equity futures pointing lower, relatively resilient given the moves that we're seeing in asia and europe that we'll come to in a moment. it is worth pointing out last week we saw significant risk-off moves, bond buying, gold prices higher. the u.s. equities, despite a tough day on friday, ended down flat. the s&p, dow and nasdaq slightly lower. they are more resilient than last week. as we look at the dow down 41 points in the premarket. the ten-year showed a big risk-off move last week. a lot of bond buying. you can see it in the chart, you can see in the yield, 1.62 this morning. the major asian markets saw a heavy sell-off overnight. here's what happened from hong kong to seoul to shanghai. the market closing down 3.5%.

in shanghai they closed down 3%. hong kong was down 2.5%. a flight out of stocks and into safehavens like the japanese yen making new highs overnight. it is trading now below 106 to 105.95. that's a weak dollar and strong yen ahead of the fed meeting this week and the meeting from the bank of japan. right. we did get data out, chinese data a little soft fixed, retail sales were all right. but the asian stocks we certainly down. partly, i think, because they are heartbroken in asia after you departed the region and came back over here. >> i enjoyed my time in asia but happy to be back. although with sad news to report, obviously, if. >> happy to have you back. european trade is suffering not quite as much in asia, but worth pointing out last week europe was softly broader. stoxx 600 down 2.5% extending

the losses this morning 1.5% for germany and france with the ftse 100 down .40%. the european currencies, we'll have a look at those this morning. in particular, the euro, in fact, strengthening a little bit, 1.127. the pound having a tough day on friday after polls came out to indicate the brexit exit camp within the referendum was in the lead. over the weekend a couple more polls that we'll bring light to later at 5:40. but the sterling suffering 1.4146. sara, you pointed out how strong the yen has been. the pound against the yen is at a low not seen since early 2013. that tells you the story of brexit's concerns heating up on the back of the polls. oil is under pressure. wti down below $49 a barrel. $48.46. and the benchmark is down just hovering near the $50 a gallon

mark for natural gas. the rigs are higher for the second week in a row. >> and it is important to pause on oil prices because we pointed to geopolitical concerns last week for the sell-off. but the biggest driver for why u.s. equities were doing better, the higher oil. banks were the worst sector. oil prices softening today has a big impact on markets and why we are seeing asia and europe selling off. quickly, gold is catching a bid aversion. gold is moving in the opposite direction as the british pound lately, 1,286. gold prices are up $10 at this hour. back to today's top story, at least 50 people killed in an orlando nightclub in the worst u.s. shooting ever. we are joined from the scene with the latest, eamon javers,

good morning to you. >> reporter: we are here at the orlando medical center, it is a level one trauma center. we are just a couple blocks away from the pulse nightclub where dozens of the injured were taken from there to here. here's what we know of the timeline so far. we'll get more information as the day goes along, but it all started at 2:00 a.m. saturday night into sunday morning. the shooter omar mateen entered the pulse nightclub at 2:00 in the morning. by about 2:10 the pulse nightclub posted a message to their facebook page alerting everyone to get out of the facility. run and don't stop running. at 5:00 a.m. the police entered the pulse nightclub to put and end to the hostage situation that has developed there as mateen effectively took the hostages hiding in that building. nobody was able to get in or out. it was a bloody and awful scene. what we know so far, 50 dead, 53

wounded. bodies were removed overnight. the families have been notified gradually. just overnight we got a list of 21 new names as they are being confirmed and released to the public. yesterday in washington, d.c., president barack obama once again addressing the nation in the wake of a mass shooting. and here's what he said. >> this is a sobering reminder that attacks on any american regardless of race, ethnicity, religion or sexual orientation is an attack on all of us. and on the fundamental values of equality and dignity that define us as a country. >> reporter: and guys a local hampton inn here was the rallying point yesterday for family who is were concerned about their loved ones. i was there yesterday afternoon when authorities informed a dozen families that their loved ones had been killed. i have to tell you, i have never seen anything more sad and

devastating than what i saw yesterday as those families took in that news and were just stunned, shocked, scenes of grief, people crying, people holding each other, people collapsing to the floor. just an emotional outpouring here in orlando, florida, as people are getting this terrible, terrible news. back over to you. >> eamon, more details will e merge on the shooter and his motives, but what has been confirmed is that he was an employee and worked for a uk security firm g4s. what kind of fallout has there been relating to that? because presumably by working for a security firm, one would have expected a deeper background check. >> reporter: yeah, absolutely. in particular, this was a guy who was investigated by the fbi as early as 2013. he was on the radar screen according to some former coworkers he was allegedly making comments, talking about possible connections he had to terrorism or terrorists.

talking about some violent ideologies he had. one friend was quote in the media saying he was talking about killing people, going back several years here. so the question is, how was he able to work at a security company and also, of course, how was he able to obtain the weapons he use in the shooting yesterday. he used an ar-15 and a handgun in this assault. so a lot of that still to be sorted out by authorities. we know authorities have reached his apartment now. they have been able to get into that apartment. one of the concerns there is any secondary devices he might have placed as bobby traps for authorities coming to investigate. so they are proceeding very slowly and carefully, but you can imagine they are going through all of his commute computers, any writing, social media, all that will form a fuller picture. i imagine as the day goes on today we'll be learning a lot more about that man and why he did this horrible thing here in orlando. >> we'll continue to check in with you eamon javers live for us in orlando.

we'll switch to the market, the big market sell-off in asia overnight. we'll dive a little deeper into akiko joining us from singapore with a look at what was behind the sharp losses from tokyo to hong kong. akiko, good morning. >> good morning to you, sara. asian stocks fell to four-month lows today as we saw investors flee the risky assets ahead of central bank meetings and the brexit referendum. we saw the biggest sell-off over here in japan. take a look at the nikkei 225 down 3.5%. the market weighed down by the japanese yen that reached a high against the dollar not seen since october 2014. as we saw a rush to safe havens, you talk about the risk aversion, we have seen the japanese bond yields pushed further into negative territory as a result. the ten-year jgb is at minus

1.6% there. investors there are now looking to the bank of japan to see if they ease further beginning their two-day meeting on wednesday. and we'll be looking for market reaction on tuesday to fitch's latest move to revise japan's outlook to negative citing the government's delay in its sales tax hike. elsewhere, economic data out from china weighed down on sentiment in the chinese markets because it shows a mixed picture of the health of the world's second largest economy. we saw the factory outlook grew 6% year on year better that expected, but the fitch asset retail sales slowed unexpectedly. hang seng is down 2.5% at 2512. shanghai down 3%. and the blue cp stocks down 3%. so pretty negative start to the week so far. sara? >> akiko fujita live with the market check in singapore.

i've got to tell you, wilfred, after being gone for two weeks i came back -- we are seeing the ten-year breaking to new lows. >> so german, japanese, uk, all at record-time lows. the u.s. is also moving significantly. but it is worth to point out one thing, we have seen bond moves and gold price moves and international equity moves all to the risk-off side of things. u.s. equities relatively resilient last week and that points to the fact that this is international factors, whether it is brexit, global growth, but it is not domestic u.s. >> though we did get a good jobs report. >> that was ages ago now. >> i know. but it shows the big risk event of the week was supposed to be the fed meeting this wednesday. and now there's virtually no chance the fed is going to raise rates. before i left, people were talking about a rate hike firmly

on the table with that disappointing number. somehow the federal reserve going to walk a line between laying the groundwork for more interest rate hikes on a better u.s. economy priding with caution given the referendum vote out of the uk one leak later and we start to see the sluggishness in the economy again. >> absolutely right. we'll see what the viewers think, we want to hear from you. the twitter and facebook question of the day, we are seeing lots of risk off sentiment. so with the concerns out there, what worries you the most? terrorism, fed uncertainty, brexit or global growth? we'll bring you the results and the early results are very surprising. we won't tell you yet but later we'll bring you the results. and beginning today on the corporate fund, apple kicks off its worldwide developing conference at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, we'll get retail sales and it is day one at the fed meeting. on wednesday we get ppi as well

as the fed decision latest economic positions at the janet yellen meeting. and the bank of japan has a meeting on wednesday. on thursday the housing starts are out. and markets are focused on other events as well. lots and lots for the market to look for. >> every poll is out of the uk. a few stocks to watch today, tesla putting out a statement there's no safety defects many the model s and saying the suspension problems were fraudulent. they are authorizing a non-disclosure clause in the customer repair agreements after the company took issue with the practice. and dr. reddy is looking to buy drugs from teva pharmaceuticals for $350 million. most of the drugs are awaiting approval. and walgreens is terminating their relationship with

theranos. they are looking to take action against the blood-testing firm. a big deal as the walgreens relationship is one of those things that helped theranos into its hay day. more stocks to watch, symantec is going to buy blue coat systems in a $4.6 billion deal to give them access to cyber defense technologies. blue coat's ceo will also take the top job at symantec after the deal closes. walmart canada will stop affecting visa. the fees remain unexpectedly high. verizon and at&t go to the third and final round of bidding according to reports. yahoo! hopes to finish the action by next month. when we come back, it's the top story. only ten days until the uk voters head to the polls to decide britain's future in the eu. a big movement in key polls over

the weekend. bookmakers' odds are narrowing and the global markets are taking notice. up next, john longwood, the charmt of the vote leave business council making the case for an exit from the eu. very interesting coming from a member of the business commute. we'll have that for you when "worldwide exchange" comes right back.

great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "worldwide exchange. "momentum clearly building for the leave camp in the british

referendum on its membership in the eu. joining me is chairman of the eu vote business council and also head of the chamber of commerce until march when he had to make his views clear on the referendum. good morning to you, john, thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> john, we'll kick things off by recent move in the polls. the momentum has been building for your side, the leave side, what do you put that down to? >> well, i think people are becoming to realize that the fear campaign that has been run by the government holds no water. but, in fact, the uk economy will do better outside of the european union and that we'll be able to resolve those fundamental issues people are worried about. for example, here is the issue of migration, not just social issues but also economic issues in their own right. >> so john, clearly you argue that in the long term britain's economic future would be better

outside the eu. it is pretty widely accepted that in the short-term there would be uncertainty. but it is hard to know how long that period of uncertainty would be. over the weekend, they said it would take seven years donald tuck said. >> the greatest risk is staying in the european union because the european union can only develop in one of two ways. either the eurozone adapts because they cannot survive because of the political integration. and the eurozone will make all the decisions. britain, one of two countries will not join the euro will be on the margins. they will have no say and pay for having the privilege of being a member with no freedom to act. the second possibility is the

former governor of the bank of england predict eed is that we' all end up paying for it. that's real uncertainty of one's economy which is what leaving the european union will allow us to do. and that way the real economy will actually perform very, very well from the very start of our deciding to leave. it should be remembered that the day after our end dependence day, nothing will change. in fact, until we vote article 15 in and finish discussions with the eu, nothing will change. so while the markets might react further because the markets always overreact as we know, they move really quickly and realize the real economy has not changed at all and gradually the real economy will do better and better. so the markets will react to that within a short period of time. >> john, if you're so certain

that the economy would do better by britain leaving, then why are the most credible institutions from the bank of england to the imf to the oecd, you name it. even businesses across europe and within the uk say that it would be very harmful to jobs, to the economy, to the pound, who entshlly to public finances to leave. >> reporter: well, first of all, let me be clear that the majority of the businesses in the uk want to leave the european union. the business survey in the country was carried out by the british chamber of comments a few weeks ago and it showed businesses that export to a large majority of the world. that group that wants to leave represents 84% of the economy and 94% of all businesses. so they are very clear, i think. as for the institutions you mentioned, many of the institutions invested within the european union project. they are funded by the u.k.

government and they have a vested interest in continuing with the european project. >> john, you mentioned the markets do have a tendency to overreact in the short-term. the pound certainly has been reacting to the latest polls whenever leave is gaining momentum. in the short-term, what kind of level is worth taking on the chin just in the short-term in order to get the benefits you say will come forward. 10%? 20%? >> the markets will do whatever the markets do and then revert to form. because the real economy will not have changed one jolt. and we'll gradually improve our position in the u.k. to become the best place in the world to do business. we're a pretty good place to do business as it is. >> john, thank you for joining us. john longworth, thank you for joining us. russian and english fans

battled in the stands at tend of their match on saturday in marseille. the clashes also spilled into the streets. the teams were warned they could be disqualified from the tournament if their fans continue to cause havoc. a very sad sign as the security pressures there. and "hamilton" making history last night at the tony awards. we'll have the details straight ahead. and cloud and hosting services. centurylink. your link to what's next.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the tony awards rallied to support orlando. >> on behalf of the whole theater community and every person in this room, our hearts go out to all of those affected by this atrocity. all we can say is you are not on your own right now. your tragedy is our tragedy. theater is a place where every race, creed, sexuality and gender is equal, is embraced and is loved. hate will never win. >> as for the awards themselves, it was a big night for "hamilton." the smash hit taking home 11 tonys including best new musical. that's sort of breaking the record of 12 held by the

producers. hamilton earned a record 16 nominations. and part of the event, they actually did not use muskets in their performance as they were supposed to do in light of the orlando shooting. >> indeed. congratulations to them on a successful night. we'll get to sports, the pittsburgh penguins winning the stanley cup last night. the penguins win 3-1. the team captain sidney crosby was named the player mvp. when we come back, this morning's top stories including a sell-off of stocks around the world. the full story on that and an update on the situation in orlando for you. don't go anywhere, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.

a developing story, terror in orlando. the deadliest shooting in u.s. history. we'll have the latest coming up. and the yen surges and stocks in europe are trading lower. and the u.s. futures point to a negative open. it's monday, june 13, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good monday morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara ieisen.

>> i'm wilfred frost. we'll bring you up to speed on the markets with the u.s. futures pointing lower in a muted fashion. this was true for last week as well. the dow slightly positive with the s&p and nasdaq lower. a similar story is true right now. the dow is lower but only by 46 points. the s&p by 7 and the nasdaq by 15. we saw a big risk-off move in other asset classes including the u.s. ten-year. as you can see by the chart and also by the yield, 1.618% on the u.s. ten-year this morning. sharp declines in asia this morning as we had disappointing data out of china, in particular, with their fixed asset disappointing. retail sales were not too bad. the yen was surging to hurt the nikkei down 3.5%. shanghai down 3.2%. big moves in asia as you can see. europe decent moves as well, not

quite as much as asia, but the broader stoxx 600 was down 2.5% last week, tending the losses for germany down 1.6%. we'll quickly show you what is going on. the british pound is under pressure again following last week's slide. there it is at the bottom of the screen, 1.4118 against the u.s. dollar. the euro is firmer but a lot of people are watching the euro/dollar, that is a stronger japanese yen after record lows in some places. you see buying of the safehavens like the yen and like gold this morning. >> we had dollar strength in may more because of hawkish sounds out of the fed. last week we saw the dollar strengthen again more for risk aversion. in fact, the opposite, we are not expecting a hike this week but it shows the dollar can be a

safehaven as it gained 1.8% last week. and oil is weaker and some of the declines in europe are related to the energy sector. as we see the worst levels of the morning, brent crude was down 2%. now down .80%. wti sitting below $49 a barrel at $48.55. holding strong last week giving some of it back, we saw the rig count in the u.s. go up last week. that's potentially one trigger behind the selling. we'll quickly show you gold because i mentioned the flight to quality. out of the british pound into gold, perhaps, that's a trade up almost 1%, nothing huge, but up $11. and as you can see, the chart on gold continues to look bullish. >> and gold is up 2.7% from last week. and investigators are trying to learn more about the man who opened fire at a crowded night club in orlando. the club closed early sunday morning. 50 people were killed in the attack. 53 of those injured.

law enforcement call this an act of terrorism. details are emerging about the 29-year-old american citizen, born in new york, lived in florida. investigators are looking into possible ties with the islamic state. john harwood is joining us live from washington with the reaction in the political circles. john, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, wilfred. as investigators accelerate their efforts to figure out exactly what motivated omar mateen who worked for a private security company, had the ability to legally by these weapons, a pledged allegiance to isis during the attack itself, also showed anti-gay tendencies over a number of years. politicians cannot wait to describe and speak to the aftermath of this event. president obama came into the white house yesterday and expressed the nation's sorrow. here's the president. >> today as americans we grieve the brutal murder of a horrific

massacre of dozens of innocent people. we pray for their families who are grasping for answers with broken hearts. we stand with the people of orlando who have endured a terrible attack on their city. although it's still early in the investigation, we know enough to say that this was an act of terror and an act of hate. and as americans we are united in grief and outrage and in resolve to depefend our people. >> reporter: president obama planned his rally with hillary clinton on wednesday. that was to celebrate his endorsement of her candidacy. but we'll hear from both the republican and the democratic presumptive nominees today. donald trump in new hampshire is going to give a speech about terrorism. he's hoping that the difficult, the tough tone that he is

establishing is going to benefit him. yesterday he was on twitter saying he accepted congratulations for being right about islamic terrorism, but we have to be tough, we have to be smart. hillary clinton is going to deliver remarks about her approach to isis. and this debate is only going to accelerate. >> we'll see how it continues to reshape the race. for now, john harwood, joining us this morning in washington. joining us now on the cnbc newsline, michael balboni, the founding partner at redland strategies and former director of security for the state of new york. michael, thank you for calling in. >> good morning. >> good morning. how did the authorities this morning work to prevent any copy cats? we know we are still currently during the period of ramadan where the islamic state has called on people like this to carry out attacks. what happens in places like new york and cities around this country to make sure that it does not continue to happen? >> reporter: what you're seeing now on the streets of new york is a much higher presence of --

this would frequently happen at events like this across the world, ands the really for a purpose of reassurance but also to make sure that there is a deterrence out there, so nobody thinks that we are not paying attention this morning and for the days following. it is a heightened period of concern as we see a lot of talk and chatter over the event during ramadan. but what has been happening here has been happening for a period of time. isis wants to inspire folks and get people into the game and try to take credit for the things they do. but, of course, this takes planning. the one thing we're hearing about the shooting is that it was pretty well organized. this guy knew what he was going to do. and that does not happen -- very rarely do you wake up and go do this. it takes planning and there is opportunity to find out what is going on in the neighborhood.

if people talk about the things they see. >> how worrying is it that the government was investigated twice by the fbi? does that paint a picture of how hard it is to stop domestic attacks? because clearly there was some level of suspension and clearly that suspension was warranted. and yet nothing was able to be done. >> reporter: this is always the huge challenge for any type of law enforcement agency. the actions that someone takes, whether it's spousing belief, support for a particular group, those things in and of themselves are not illegal. that's free speech in this country. so to be able to come and say and pinpoint words as a precursor to violence is very, very difficult. violent acts and general nature are unpredictable. at the same time, the resources of the fbi, you got to question what are resources. i always said the government is underfunded in this country with

a fraction of the size of the new york city police department. and yet their entire investigation is increasing almost daily. so i think we have to re-examine resources that we have and look to the fbi. but then it really comes down to this coordinated approach where you talk to people back and forth in various levels of government to coordinate the information. and with the private sector as well. one of the places we learned yesterday was the security guard that worked for a company. the company had concerns and moved him in 2013 after he is escorted from the courthouse after having a conversation with the colleagues who felt he was too aggressive in his religious beliefs. after the fact, the individual was on a watch list or as a result to the fbi. they would never give express to an individual company. we have to look at how to share that information appropriately with private sector companies as well that employ individuals like this. >> yep, a lot of still questions

for the investigators to go through. michael, thank you for your comments this morning. michael balboni joining us by phone. and the pound falling to an eight-week low on brexit anxiety. momentum growing for the exit camp in the latest polls. coming up, we speak to peter calmer who will give us his take. don't leave us.

you get use to pet odors in your car. you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this. {ding} eliminate odors you've gone nose blind too, for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip. wow, it smells good in here. so you and your passengers can breathe happy.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the exit brexit camp is gaining in the recent weeks. the leave camp is with a one-point lead. the poll of polls gives leave the edge 46% to 44% to stay. joining me is one of the leading voices in terms of polls in the uk. peter, good morning to you, thank you for joining us. momentum is gaining for the leave camp in the last couple weeks. what do you attribute that to? >> first of all, there's a slight shift to leave. i will tell you what i think is happening, which is in order for david cameron, the conservative prime minister, he needs the vote of a lot of non-conservative voters, labor, green, welsh nationalists. and there are some signs that the anti-conservative voters are beginning to shift a bit to

brexit, more because they want to kick david cameron and because they feel strongly about europe. but i can emphasize, the movement is not big. the movement has been quite small. >> well, it seems to be spooking markets this morning with the british pound selling off another 1%. peter, the poll came it on friday showing a ten-point lead for the leave campaign. you are the authority on the different polls, how accurate is that one and which one should we be paying attention to? >> well, what you have is the poll that came out on friday for the independent newspapers for the brexit leave, there were two polls out on sunday, both showing effectively little to no change. both are around 50/50 give or take. it looks to me about ten points brexit-leave poll is an outlier. i imagine the financial markets are roughly the same view. they overwhelmingly believe the

remain will win. and i think what is happening in the financial markets is the people are not quite so sure because there's a lot of expectation. i would say myself that by now we would see remain pick up support, but that hasn't happened so the markets are beginning to get a bit nervous. that confidence in the remain victory is no longer quite so sure. so i would -- if that carries on, the obviously thing is the dollar and the japanese yen to grow in strength. and the pound and the euro might well weaken. >> peter, it is interesting you say that because the confidence in a remain is slightly losing steam although overall it does remain. why does that confidence remain, as you say, the better market still suggests the most likely outcome is a vote to stay where some polls now give leave a slight leave. why is that a discrepancy between the two? >> two reasons, wilfred. the first is that there is evidence that online polls and most of the polls over the last few days online slightly

understate the brexit position, slightly understate the remain position. in other words, that is the case. they will probably remairemain slightly ahead. and when you get these kinds of constitutional referendums, then towards the very end, the final days before, people make up their mind late and make a judgment as to which is the risky option and the safe option. and there's a lot of talk about the economic risk of brexit to prosperity. when, in fact, that pattern holds this time, they expect the remain votes to pick up in the last week or ten days. but we can't be certain. immigration is another issue which is helping the brexit camp because a lot of people fear for the immigration if we stay in the european union. so immigration trumps economics and we could still have a brexit

victory. that will be the battle over the next ten days. is it economics to drive the end game or is it immigration that drives the end game? >> peter, could immigration drive the end game given the attacks we have seen in orlando? or would we have to see something similar happen in europe for that to actually be a factor? >> good question. i'm not certain. i mean, in european football we have battled between english football supporters and russian football supporters. the police not helping the situation as much as might have happened. this is playing big in britain. but i think something bigger probably has to happen. but when you get these sudden horrible events, we're never quite sure how people will react. >> peter, we look forward to your input in the coming ten days until the vote. peter kellner a leading voice in the likely outcomes. when we come back, the chief market strategist jonathan golub

will wrap up the major market stories including a big sell-off overnight and help to get you ready for the trading week ahead. we'll be right back. bank of ama to buy a new gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% back at grocery stores and now at wholesale clubs. and 3% back on gas. kenny used his bankamericard cash rewards credit card to join the wednesday night league. because he loves to play hoops. not jump through them. that's the excitement of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you.

came courtesy of james and patricia thompson. this tv? margaret and tom lee. the championship game ball? that was sebastian diaz. good guy. and all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. their life savings is now my lifestyle. female announcer: don't let someone else live the life you're saving for. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange. "the team is getting ready for "squawk box" on this monday morning. joe kernan is joining us. what a tough morning, joe. >> it is. our thoughts are with everybody affected by the massacre down in orlando. we will go do what we do, obviously, that will be the front and center, but how it affects everything else that we talk about, we'll also be something we're dealing with. how do we stop future attacks? how does it affect the markets and that's what we do. a lot of times it doesn't seem like the thing to focus on, but

we are at cnbc. so that will be one of the things. just shifting gears while i have my expert on all things in the uk, to change gears completely, sara, hey, wilfred, what is the latest -- is there a real politics average for brexit now? do you know what it is now? i saw unbelievable numbers over the weekend, some double-digits for a lead, do you believe those? >> well, we know the latest poll is a bit of an outliar. but the ft poll of polls that averages the last seven relevant polls does give a lead for leave at the moment, 46% to 44%. but the betting market still says a remain market is more likely. they say they with less conviction than in vent weeks, but the reason for a discrepancy why remain is still the favorite

in the betting markets, anyone that is not hugely passionate about a leave vote is likely to switch sentiment a little bit because of the unconcernty of a vote to leave. it is embracing something unknown. so that is why we still see the discrepancy between the latest polls and the betting markets, but certainly the momentum is with leave at the moment. >> always best to go with people that are actually putting their money down. it seems like that to me -- everybody has an opinion, wilfred? it is easy to say, i'm going to vote for leave, but a lot of times where the money is is -- you follow the money. >> following the money, the sterling off 1.5% on friday. >> yeah, it was 1.46 this last week or so? >> indeed. joe, we'll leave it there, but we look forward to "squawk box" in eight minutes' time. and the sell-off in u.s. equity futures are not like the decline we saw 2% to 3% in asia.

joining us is jonathan galub, market strategist. it says the s&p could rally 6% this year to your target of 2225. going into the brexit vote, a fed meeting, we have a lot of unknowns here out there including now the heightened risk of terrorism. how do we get to that gain that you project? >> well, i think the most important thing here is, first of all, the likelihood of a recession, which is really what the stocks show very low. if you look at the amount of u.s. stocks returning to shareholders, companies are returning 4.7% as a yield. if you compare that to government bonds right now, close to 1.6 or corporate bonds, they just look super attractive relative to any other alternative. so it's not that things are going to be amazing, but just that the u.s. stocks look so much more attractive than everything else. the european stocks, for example, much less attractive than u.s. stocks right now. >> with that in mind, was the

performance of u.s. equities last week, which is basically flat for the indices, but is that pretty encouraging because almost every other asset class around the world was moving in a risk off direction? >> sure. and take a look even today, we're talking about the u.s. futures being down a third of a percent when you have a 3% decline in china and japan and europe is down about 1.5% or so. so the u.s. is much less sensitive to this. it is almost -- think about this, if there was a u.s. change in nafta, what would that do to japan or european stocks in it wouldn't matter but they wouldn't see it as the most single important thing in their markets. >> the problem i have with the sort of relative bet is that the financial crisis taught us that we are all in this together. and that if the rest of the world economy is falling and the german ten-year yield goes negative, that says something bad about the global economy and would be hard for the u.s. to be immune. >> right, but the financial

crisis really taught us that if you have -- you need a contagent and that runs through the banking system. and one of the things if we look at a greek exit, the problem is that it actually affects the common currency that affects negotiated contracts, which has a different set of things. so while the british economy is far more important to the continent, it's less likely to be a banking crisis and therefore the contagent effects may not be as rough. >> why are banking stocks the worst performing sector in the s&p by quite some distance now? >> banks hate low interest rates in this kind of environment. and right now the u.s. trades at about 160 basis points. so when the european rates fall, the global investors flock to the u.s. and it is not even a flight to safety, they just can't put liquid yields on european paper. they run to the u.s. and it puts

the yields down. >> is there a surprise from the fed this week, not so much in the terms of a move, but the communication thereafter? >> i think we are ready for the next move. underemployment is at 5%. we have inflation over 2%. and if you take -- even with brexit, we still have a close at 17 on friday, which is well below historical averages. so we shouldn't be living a 37-basis point fed funds. what would i like to see in i would like to see the feds say there's a press conference in july which means that the july meeting is a live meeting even if they are not likely to move, then i think it starts to move the expectations. >> jonathan, thank you so much for joining us. a pleasure to have you with us, jonathan golub. quickly, the result of the twitter question, what is concerning you most of all the worries out there? the result is global growth, 39%. perhaps a surprise given the

focus on the likes of brexit and terrorism this morning. that's it for "worldwide exchange." be sure to tune in to "squawk box" coming up next. it's more than a network. it's how you stay connected. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you get an industry leading broadband network and cloud and hosting services. centurylink. your link to what's next.

thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business.

good morning. terror in orlando, 50 people kill in the nightclub attack, 50-plus injured in the second worst or the worst terror attack since 9/11. what we are learning about the shooter as the victims are starting to be identified. we are live in orlando with the latest. and the political reaction coming quick and furious from all sectors, from the white house to the campaign trail, how the massacre will play out in the race for the white house. plus, brexit anxiety. global markets are rallying on the uncertainty of next week's big vote. some people believe the

contingent is ahead but betting is still on stage. a lot of times the money is where the action is. it is monday, june 13. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we'll have more on the terror in orlando in just a minute. check out the u.s. equity futures. for some red arrows. the down futures are indicated down by 47 points. the s&p futures down by 7.5. the nasdaq down by 14. the blood letting was worse in asia with the nikkei down 3.5%. that was a decline of 582 points. this comes as the