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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 17, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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good point. >> thanks, jane. >> jane, thank you very much. see you later. that does it. mike, have a good weekend. happy father's day. >> you, too. thank you very much. >> big week. >> yellen testimony. >> "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" for a friday starts right now. i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk are tim, steve, brian and guy. tonight on fast, the "washington post" bureau chief said a brexit could be closer than investors think. he joins us live on the ground with the very latest. plus, alphabet posting its worst day in two months, after citigroup posts ad growth. a top technician said that could spell trouble. father's day just around the corner. instead of a tie, we've got four stocks that is sure to bring a smile to your old man's portfolio. james bullard dialing back his expectations for economic growth and future rate hikes,
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bas basically saying the fed hike is wrong. gundlach is saying this on the halftime report. >> the fed has kind of given up on this idea that somehow we're going to ratchet up to a 3% real growth pattern. gdp is going to be 2 this year, 2 the next year, 2 in the long run. that's not so much of a forecast as a recognition of reality. >> so, did the fed just throw in the towel and should we just accept the fact that maybe there is a new reality in terms of investing on our hands? >> yeah, i think so. listen, i think bullard is known to be a bit of a maverick. send him out there. this is the fed's communication channel. none of these things are just random, in my view. so bullard is the tip of the spear. he comes out and says, you know what? there's a structural change outs there in the economy. what the fed is doing is not going to help it. we heard yellen say this week in the press conference as well, she was asked a question. she said some of these changes in the economy are structural. so i would expect over the next
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six months the narrative to change. that's what the fed is doing here. they're changing the narrative. in my view, the risk to this whole thing is that now they've basically taken the fed put off the table. saying we can't do much more. this is about all we're going to be able to do. and i think it has a big risk for the market. i don't think it was appreciated by a lot of investors today. >> bullard is a guy we expect to take more 6 a dovish tone. janet yellen said a couple of days ago, first of all we learned the only dissenting men of the fed no longer was dissenting. we knew the fed had gone dovish. this is what we're trying to say right now, it constitutes a new era for the fed. the fed doesn't believe fed policy works i think is ludicrous. >> but the data is not about being dovish at all. he would have said, we'll do qe
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4. gundlach talked about this today. the fact that money supply and the stock market are going basically one for one. so you see it right there. the fed has stopped increasing money supply, the stock market has gone nowhere. so to me if the fed is going to back off from this, and money supply is going to continue to contract, then you would expect the s&p 500 to contract. that's not dovish to me, that's hawkish. >> one of the arguments i've been trying to make is the fed a has painted themselves into this corner. in many ways i think that's what bullard's statement is sort of backing up. janet yellen, she also talked about deflationary pressure sort of finding their way into the system. one of the other things we talked about for a while. i think the bond market sort of got it wrong today. i still think rates go down. i'm sort of in the b.k. camp here. there's not a lot more we can do. you're sort of on your own from here forward. >> then where do you have to go for yield? i hate to sound like the guy
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with rinse and repeat. but everyone keeps talking about multiples, and prices paid. but utilities, where else are you going to get it? staples. gdx, up 45% gdx. gold, people look at it, it can go higher. >> i look at the economic data, though, and to -- you know, the treasury yield at 159, 160, wherever we change, we trade sideways to lower, i don't think necessarily yields can't go lower. i look around the world and see what central banks are going. i know yields are under pressure because of bond binding and qe. not because the economy is about to go into recession. on the ten-year, we're negative. we haven't been this low in 50 years. i look at wages for people. they are rising. we're in a place where it's not bombastic. but to say the u.s. economy, and, you know, what the fed is doing, it's so easy to attack it. i've got plenty of things that i
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don't like in the fed policy, but today's announcement -- >> i don't think that we're -- i don't think anybody's saying necessarily, maybe you are, that there's a real apparent threat of a recession. bullard was saying this is going to be a low growth, low real interest rate environment. would you agree with that at the very least? that's his premise. >> first of all, if people around this desk and in the market are ready to agree to that, that's a very big change of opinion. >> that's what we're asking. >> i actually think we are in a low growth environment. it's not going to be recessionary, and that's not reason for catastrophe. >> it's a cyclical event. we are going to have another recession. it's just a matter of time. >> what does that mean? >> what do you think it means? >> it means there's going to be a recession sometime in the future. no kidding. >> we're long in the tooth. recession is coming. the odds are in my camp that the recession happens sooner -- when do you think the next recession is going to happen? right now, the data tells me we're -- >> i don't know if we're close
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to it. industrial production, if you measure it -- >> the last 12 months, people have been crying about the bull market for the last six years. >> one at a time. hold on. one at a time. >> i mean, the data right now does not say recession. technically -- >> you sound like it's -- if things were as good as you painted it out to be -- >> i didn't paint a rosy picture. i say it's below trend growth but i don't think it's going into recession. >> you said negative rates would push people into equities here. >> and yields will go lower. >> when you're flattening all growth, gdp, global gdp hopefully at 2%, all the money comes off the table. >> i have one question here tonight. i think most people here at least -- at the very least -- i've got more than one. the most important question on my mind right now, at the very least everyone agrees we're in a low growth environment.
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whether or not it leads to recession, that's where it seems like you guys are divided. in a low growth environment, as we have now, where would you say to be? >> i'm going to sound like the broken record that steve said he is. but you stay the bond market. and the gold market. the gold market reversed yesterday. looked scary. came back with a little bit -- came back nicely. my pushback to tim would be this. central banks are buying. i think the reason that buying is to keep rates down to try to spurn economies around the world that they're all concerned about. to me, therein lies the difference. i think they're keeping the rates lower to spur economies that are faltering. >> i think the no-brainer trade, yields go lower, knowing that you buy into the -- probably the largest bubble in history. >> five days away from the all-important brexit vote. the influential times of london throwing its support to staying in the eu. for the latest on the ground, let's go to griff witte joining
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us on the fast line. griff, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you, melissa. >> i know there haven't been any polls since the tragic murder of jo cox, but what's your accepts on how things have changed sing that event? >> well, politics has really been put on hold for the last couple of days in the uk. obviously it was all eu referendum here all the time for weeks on end. this killing has really shocked everyone in the uk. this is not the kind of thing that happens here. obviously there have been a lot of very tragic catastrophes in the u.s. but it's not the type of thing you see in the uk. the policies have been put on the back burner. there was a surge in support for leaving. whether that continues after the attack remains to be seen. we'll see when campaigning picks it back up again. >> here in the united states, griff, the prevailing sentiment seems to be that, yes, the polls may show there is a growing wave
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of sentiment to leaving the eu, but ultimately when people get into the voting booth naturally have to cast a vote that they will decide to stay in the european union. would you agree with that sentiment? are we discounting the possibility of a brexit too much? >> oh, i think the possibility of a brexit is very real. you know, you've seen these polls in recent days that have shown a clear shift to leave, a clear damage to leave. when i talked to people at the top levels, political circles, economic circles in the uk, there's great anxiety about this. there's a lot of concern. i think the sentiment all along in the establishment had been, well, people will come back in the long run, that when -- as with the scottish referendum, or as with the vote of the general election last year in britain, people chose regular tifl pragmatically. that's practice digsly the way things have been in britain,
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people make reasonably pragmatic choices. but there is tremendous anxiety here. there's tremendous concern about immigration. and that's really fueling this push for out. whether that continues after the killing of very popular member of parliament jo cox who really pushed a very inclusive, tolerant, multi-cultural investigation of britain remains to be seen. you had across the spectrum today people lining up to saying we've got to get away from the very divisive rhetoric. that could hurt the out campaign. >> griff, thanks for phoning in. we appreciate it. so what do we do here? we saw interday today, very interesting spike in the pound against the u.s. dollar. >> well, i think to me, the trade is one of remaining. and taking on positions that either way can do okay if britain does vote against. but there are probably conditions attached to it. also, the amount of time needed
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to get them out of the eu. but i think if anything, this very sad shocking news out of the uk, if anything, i think it does bring people together. and if i look at political divides around the world, even those in this country, that sentiment, if anything, is one that's probably going to lead to -- i think a more constructive dialogue. i think unfortunately that's where we are. i think it's going to lead to similar things happening, maybe not and hopefully not as awful as this event. but i think that's really where markets are going to respond. interpreting what the political events are going to be. i think hillary needs to come a little more toward the middle. i don't think trump's investable. therefore, i think this will lead to a situation where people are going to have conversations. you've got a place here, actually for markets is a good thing. i don't think brexit has to be a disaster because it's not going to be you're out on the street tomorrow anyway. >> how would you position?
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>> i think all of these events we've seen, these shocks, they've all been buyable events. one shock after another. now, this one, quite frankly, is different. none of us understand the true spectrum on which it's going to affect everything all inclusive. but it looks to me that if you get that chance to buy the market, when it does sell off, the 2% to 3%, either side of the rally on the stay, or they leave, and the market sells off. it seems to be a buyable event. >> coming up, shares of apple tumbling after chinese regulators called into question the patent for the iphone 6 design. a simple question, gold or silver? the answer might not be so simple. we'll explain why not. google shares having their worst year in almost two months. this woman owns this house, with new cabinets from this shop,
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apple shares falling more than 2% in the reports that beijing barred the tech giant from selling its 6 and 6-plus. citing a strong similarity to an existing chinese phone as a reason for the ban. apple appealed the order.
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and all iphone models will remain available for sale in china. technically a stay of the order. still, this comes recently after ceo tim cook made a visit to china. so what was that all about? ? it was about him having to invest in something to curry favor. in my opinion. >> get his phone stopped for sale? >> what are we going to invest in next? they invested a couple billion dollars in the uber of china. to me it was to sort of gain them entrance, let's say. this happens. is he getting played? absolutely he's getting played. the stock should have bounced basically after the reports got, not refuted but challenged. it didn't bounce. i don't know what that means. it clearly didn't trade particularly well. >> i think it's skepticism about the chinese court system. it has to go through the chinese court system? do we trust the chinese court system to come out and --
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>> no. getting played. very '90s. >> i think they're throwing them shade. >> it's the '80s. >> it's unfortunate. when i look at any company that's had some kind of a conflict with the chinese government, the reality is, this doesn't go away overnight. i think there's lingering element. it highlights how important china is to apple. how people are questioning for the last at least six to nine months moving to the 4-inch phone i think people said, maybe things aren't so great in china. the china story for apple is still fundamental where at least i think people are assessing what they can do in the medium to short term. >> all right. let's get to the airlines. falling more than 6% this week. steep declines in delta, united airlines and jetblue. >> all the ones that you just read, right there, they're all down 25% or 30% year-to-date.
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the only thing that's different about the ones that have succeeded southwest, luv, that's down only 7%. but if you look at spirit, save is the ticker. that's up 6%. domestic facing only. international is not a problem for them. i don't know if brexit is going to be a problem for the international flights. but for me, if you're going to play in the airlines, play with spirit, save. >> yeah, i think the thing about the airlines in this environment is that we still have relatively low oil prices. and they are not trading well given that. yes, they've come off -- oil's come off its lows. but they're still not trading. so to me they're a no-touch at this point in time. i think there's a lot of uncertainty what's going on in europe. although that will go away. i think they're a no-touch. >> what shows in 11 minutes? >> "options action."
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>> not that i remember these things, but when did the airlines top out? about -- i don't know -- january 2015. which coincided with the street fight between the formation against hash tag and -- >> we're almost out of time. a long history lap on the show. steph curry getting ejected from last night's nba game, causing his wife to call foul on the nba. maybe she should be call out sneaker stocks which continue to make new lows. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> coming up, a troubling report questioning google's growth could spell trouble for one fang stock in particular. we'll explain. plus -- >> hey, dad?
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>> we'll do you one better. we've got four stocks that are sure to bring a smile to the old man's portfolio for father's day. and we'll tell you what they are, when "fast money" returns. [bassist] two late nights in tucson.
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blew an amp.but good nights. sure,music's why we do this,but it's still our business. we spend days booking gigs, then we've gotta put in the miles to get there. but it's not without its perks. like seeing our album sales go through the roof enough to finally start paying meg's little brother- i mean,our new tour manager-with real,actual money. we run on quickbooks.that's how we own it.
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welcome back to "fast money." i'm dominic chu. and the fix is in. at least that's what reigning nba most valuable player's wife thinks about game six of the finals. warriors lost to the cleveland cavaliers to a deciding game seven. after what she and many others thought were questionable calls by officials against the warriors during the game, aisha
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curry tweeted, and later was deleted. i've lost all respect, sorry this is absolutely rigged for money. or ratings. not sure which. i won't be silent. i just saw it live. sorry. she later tweeted out apologies after what she characterized as a rough and long night. it did get a stinking about the ratings. the numbers this year are impressive, but not as much so in prior years. a game seven on father's day, this sunday, is filled with possibilities for disney's abc network. which is airing the games. 2013's game seven, 26.3 million viewers. the second highest mark since abc took over the broadcast back in 2003. of course, melissa, the sports business junkie in me is also keeping a close eye on that battle for supremacy on the court between nike's lebron james and under armour's steph
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curry, both stocks down in 2016, guys. >> thanks, dom. have a good weekend. big shoe name like under armour, nike, foot locker, all in the red. who can give them a boost. the next question is, maybe nobody can. what do you think? >> i think it's more than what's going on in the nba at this point in time. this is a global story. now, with under armour, that's a name i like. i'll never bet against kevin plank. the guy's a super star. 32 1/2 is where i would start to look at that name. that's a more support level than right here. >> to me, i look at nike and say this is one of the greatest global secular strength stories of the company. there's a lot of competition. under armour came out of nowhere. kevin plank has done a great job. if there was a trade i would want to be, long nike, short under armour. dick's is in the same situation
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as a lot of retailers that are becoming, i think, priced out of the market by the online business. by the way, okc has got to be thinking the same thing. dra maund green could have been tossed out a series earlier. don't get me going. i've got to tell you, i think that was just -- >> we were just saying that in the green room. >> i know you don't want to bring it back, but let's bring it back. >> what do you mean? >> bring it back. >> i'm actually long under armour. seasonality trade for me. june and july, under armour is up for the last five years, on average, 7% in june, 11% in july. and if you go with nike, it's 2%, down 2% in june and up 2% in july. better risk/reward, go long under armour and play it safe. >> nike better hold 52. the low we made back in august of last year. if you want to do trim's trade, do it against 52 bucks. >> this game seven will be
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played on father's day, this sunday. in lieu of the final trade, we'll go around the horn for stocks for the old man's portfolio. tim? >> happy father's day all dads, my dad. pfizer. if you think about what pfizer can offer an older guy, let's just say this is probably -- all kinds of -- >> dividends, for instance. >> pharma. >> that's what you're thinking about. >> i think overdone in this attack on kind of the whole -- >> i know i'm laughing. your mom watches this show. >> where are you going with this? >> where are you going with this? >> women like dividends also, guys. >> so netflix for me is something where you can spend some time with your family. you can stream there. it's down 17% year-to-date. i still think they were there first. first adopter basically. if you give them tim's gift, don't watch the stream. >> for me, my dad doesn't like ties that much.
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he rarely wears them. but he likes to travel. marriott, they own ritz-carlton. my dad likes to travel in style. >> my old man told me to eat my wheaties. general mills gets it done. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching. "options action" starts right after this. tokyo-style ramen noodles. freshly made in the japanese tradition, each batch is small. special. unique... every bowl blurring the line between food...and art.
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the guys are getting ready behind me. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up. >> it's getting crowded in here. >> yeah, that's what some traders are saying about the so-called safest trades in the market. it could spell trouble for stocks. plus, it is the question every trader is grappling with. >> to be or not to be, that is the question. >> no, do you buy gold or silver? because the charts say one is about to surge en higher. and -- >> how is it out of gas. >> we'll tell you why it could get a lot worse. the action begins righw.

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