which is they'll be a little more sensitive to the requirements of. >> and our country is going to be back in focus when we get the jobs report next week. for now, thank you so much. check out more about the spark, cnbc.com/thespark on the so-called brexit fallout. evan, mike, have a great long weekend, guys. "fast money" starts now. >> "fast money" on a friday does start now. the market overlooking new york's times square. traders on the desk are -- tonight, don't like now. the fear and something unprecedented. it could signal more gains ahead. why traders are so excited. plus, the one stock traders went hog wild over teed and it happens to be a adamirk favorite and our traders have four all american stock that could have your portfolio celebrate iing w

fireworks. first, what was a wild day, a wild week and a wild faris half for stocks. the s&p rallying for its fourth straight day. it's now made up practically all oof its losses. a move that stunned everyone. we'll ask our traders what are the biggest first half surprises and what can we learn from them to make money in the second half? >> my first half surprise was the fact that the exwiity markets hung in as well as they did with the bond market being as strong add it was, so i've been a bond bone now for quite some time and i convinced myself that a rise many bonds, otherwise yields going lower, would be detrimental to equity markets. that clearly hasn't been the case at all, so been bullish bonds, gold, but both would lead to the downfall of the equity market and just the opposite has happened. in tim's world, it's helped the equity world and that has me scratching my head. sfwl.

>> i think bonds continue to go hire. i do still think it has negative ramification, but i can't figure out what event is going to be to turn it to the downside. >> do people agree that stocks will go higher with bond yields going lower? >> i think low e for longer is what surprised me in the first half. i guess i never, i did not pecht negative interest rates to be the dominant thing and i didn't expect there to be what's the number now, 11.2 trillion. >> stock market's cheap. i think the s&p at $120 if that's what it is, should be trading at you know, 18 to 19 times in this environment. there's no precedent for this. where historical lows and yields with an economy that's going to live along, it's 3. 1%. the u.s. economy that's 2% and late in the cycle. no question. but to say that yields should be

here, stocks are the only option for a lot of the time. >> doesn't matter. >> 44% is derived from export. this brexit vote for me is very concerning. i i say there's going to be long-term ramifications of this. i don't believe that investors are taking it as serious as they should. i think revenue is a big issue. we've manufactured -- we're not seeing revenue. >> i'm not telling you revenue is impressive. seven or eight quarters into this -- >> nothing changed with revenue. >> and telecom. verizon spiked hire. that's the point. that's what draws money here. so, when tim says negative interest, negative yielding assets, they're pushed into the markets regard laz. >> the underlying point, it almost doesn't matter to a

certain extent what the fundamentals are. >> rebounded so quickly, so quickly after that event because the fear that was in this marketplace, it was incredible to me. past five year, i've been a massive bull. for the past five year, i said that. we're at the point where i'm really a little bit scared at the ability for central banks to continue to do what they've been doing. we look at japan. obviously, zero interest didn't help. the ecb, the lower yields go, the less they'll be able to buy. there are some underlying risks. >> i'm not either camp, but that almost underscores the whole notion that the stock market here will go higher. the central banks vaa loss control. >> it's the only thing that's keeping the stock market propped

up and at some point, valuations get to be really rich, extentive. rather be in cash rather than take the risk. that's trail some point, that's actually -- you know what's going to happen? there's going to be news event, the bond market is again not going to show any ly quiquidity. it's going scare the heck out of investors. >> what i learned is that. i thought the fed was going to raise rates in june. when it was supposed to be a 4% likelihood ran to 28%, i thought they were in a raise, so i went to cash. 75, 80% and went too early. what i didn't realize was even though i had been a bull on staples and gold, i was a little spooked about valuation and i truly believe we're going to have multiple expansion. we haven't seen nick like this before.

>> having said this, i can see i will stay long and i'm actually thinking about getting back long xl use again. even in these nosebleed territories. >> you're going cash? you said that. >> all right. dreaded c word. >> if i remember getting say $130 earnings, put a $17 multiple on that. 22 in the market. and i say, all right, that's probably the top end. that's a very, very aggressive earnings expectation. $130. in the second half. >> the lesson in the second half is that people have overtraded this market overand over again. you're going to have an enormous amount of volatility. leave it for that, but asset prices are going higher. they have no place else to go. this is what's happening in central bank. you're starting to see inflation. em commodities are on the move and there's no question me central banks are easing while the rest of the world is lower

for longer and helps them. credit bubble, they're getting the opposite. going to start buying. see a ferocious rally in equities if they really start buying the long end of em credit. >> so, which ems? >> i think russia is probably the cheapest. it always is the cheapest. if you look at mexico, despite the trump effect here, mexico has been the most oversold and has the best underlying fundamentals. >> so, not cash. what are you doing for the second half? >> i'd rather be buying, stay with the bond market. with credit. so, talk about the s&p, 44% of revenue comeing from exports. i look at there's going to be earnings risk. be able to pay their bill, earnings will be a risk. you want to stay with the paper and the bonds in my opinion. >> u one lesson for the second half. respect the chart. so turn to grasso to ask what are the key levels to watch on the s&p 500. >> just said a level of 2200 in the s&p, so in these charts, there's something for everyone.

so, let's just look back where he came from. this was the old high. the all time high. this is the cent high, 2120. 2113 that we came close to reaching. just couldn't hack it. this is your recent low. 1810. 1810 up to 2120. 2047. 2042. i think this is pretty fair if you look at this. 2120 or there. pick your poison and this to the downside. flat on year. this gives you enough of a buffer because if you bailout at 2042, you're not going to get up in this cent lull of 1991, so give yourself a little cushion because nobody buys the slow and sells the high. you're overshoot levels. if we cross over, 2134, it's

2150. men it's 2170 and the reason i label this is this is where people get sucked in, so be cognizant. if we cross over here, you're going to have a boat load of money entering the market. it's going to be bullish or perceived bullish. these are the levels we must really cross over before we get ultra bullish. >> feel like he should have shaved. >> it's a good look. >> i think it's an aggressive look and call. yeah. i think he's right. >> you got -- >> i know. >> about a month or so ago, i made a comment, used the word premature, you're going talk about the potential, outside year in the s&p. trb, the reform broker. on the twitter i think he put something out similar today. what does that mean?

if we go above 2135 in the s&p, steve's level, all of a sudden, this year's low is lower than last year's low and last year's being 2135 will be higher. you have a lot of technicians talking about how bullish that pattern is is. got a long way to go. in the second half of this game. that's a gambling terminology. but something to be looking for. >> okay. >> the levels i care about are 2000 and 1810. everything else is is noise in between. >> quick seaver. sfwl doi agree with you on that one. i think 1810. i agree. >> interesting. up next, a stock trade went hog wild over in hopes of another take out. we'll give you the name, plus, grab your beach chairs, your coolers, it's the july fourth weekend. and four american stocks ready to take your portfolio to a profitable and patriotic place. and later, did you miss out on the rally? don't worry, we've got the surprising sleeper pick that will have you back in the game for the rest of the year. ♪

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welcome back to "fast mon " money." two of the biggest u.s. automakers reporting a decline

of sales for june. phil? >> melissa, this was a disappointing number in terms of the sales rate for the month of june. going into today, most people thought the sales pace would be around 17 million vehicles. there were a few saying we could say 17.1, 17.2. came in at 16.6 million vehicles compare that with where we were for the last five years. last year coming in at just under 17.5 million. this number of 16.66, this thi some saying we may not be able to top 17.5 for the year. it will remain to be seen what happens in july and august. really the two busiest months of the year. traditionally for the automakers and when you look at each of the individual awe though makers, keep this mind these percentages are comparisons with june of last year, so you have to take this and look at it and go, okay, where were those guys a year ago. fiat, chrysler, jeep and ram continue to power ahead. ford had a huge month when it came to the f series pick up truck. gm is is being disciplined about not selling to the rental

fleets, also to corporationcorp. they're down 1.6%, but profit per vehicle tends to be high and toyota was better than many expect. bottom line is this, melissa. these numbers will have a lot of people wonder federal government we see production cuts in the second half to have year. inventories are not out of control yet, but if we start to see things pull back in term of demand, that's where we see the production cuts. >> how have incentives been tracking promotions? have they been increasing those to get those sales? >> they're going up. in terms of percentage of the transaction price, they're about 9.8%. 9 pbt.9%. relative to the transaction price. that's a little higher than where they were last year. they're not to the point where people are worried. they are increasing slowly. >> thank you, have a great weekend. phil lebeau in chicago.

we have to ask the question, is this proof we're on the verge of auto here? >> here's the thing. we could be on the verge of peek auto, but if you look at these stocks, the yield in these play, nothing has changed financially or could be declining for them, but you get ford at 4.7 yield or gm. >> dogs. >> i know they're dogs. but they've been beat up so bad. i wonder if guys start chasing yield here when you think about it yield in other places. >> okay. >> good with that? >> the market's not lying to you. >> what do you think? >> gm trades at 4.8 times current numbers. trade 35% cheap to their historical, even on a ten year. as phil said with a company that's not falling for the old tricks. we criticize the sectors over and over again for committing the same sins, but i'm thrilled gm is remaining as village lent as they are. >> you mean in terms of not

increasing promotional activity. >> yes and not giving away the house. on the credit side, it's a very different company than in '08. >> you know, the way i've said to play it for a while, it's important now for four or five years. awe though zone is the place to be. it's hung in there well. i think it's fair valuation. >> next up, sticking with wheels. take a look at harley davidson surging more than 18% on chatter that private equity firm kkr is interesting in a potential takeover. we saw huge options volume as well. >> two and a half year down trend. take over chatter for this name in 2010, but since piquing in 2014ish, stocks only going straight down. look at the last quarter. wasn't that bad. beat on the revenue side. margins hung in there. they did pretty well.

goldman sachs took them from a buy no t.o. a neutral about a week or so ago. can kkr today, this stock if it holds 54, has broken a significant two and a half year down trend. i think you can still own harley davidson despite this big move today. >> say it. >> does it count if it's broken this down trend because of rumors and if the rumor goes away, don't you just revert to the original line? >> shorts are going to cover. >> i wouldn't trade. i wouldn't invest here. the fact there's speculation leads me to believe it's something you can't be chasing this move higher. again, if it comes up, if they come in and make a bid, that's a different story, but right here, right now. >> what about fundamental? >> so, david is certainly very adamant about this. this is a stock you don't want to own in this environment and think about what ferrari's doing.

there's a lot of comps and this is very discretionary auto. these guys got destroyed in 2008 and 2009. the first quarter numbers were fine, but why chase this? >> i'm with the three guys here. i think you wait on this and is this a perfect -- >> odd man out. >> he's okay. he's man unto himself, right? >> three-day rule on this one. this one's perfect. can't buy a straight up spike like this. >> there's a harley davidson dealer. >> and what? >> might just get a harley. >> fat town? >> the theerm nart. >> let me see. >> check out gold, highest close in two years, but there's another commodity that's doing better. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money." grasso snoring. first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> yeah. that's how thirsty investors are for yield and it's wreaki ining

havoc on an important group of stocks. and we're talking about four all american stocks that could have your portfolio shining on the fourth of july. the names when "fast money" returns.

americans expected to spend millions on july fourth food. mary thompson is breaking it down. from beef to beer. >> that's right. the it's a big weekend. we have a three-day weekend for fourth of july and lower gas prices. all of this is basically contributing to what we're expecting to see an increase in fout of july spending this year.

most of the money is going to be spent on food because almost two-thirds of americans plan to celebrate with a picnic or barbecue. wallet hub says the average american household will spend just over $370 each on fourth of july. that's a 7% increase from last year. it's also the top holiday for beer. we want to note that. almost is $1.7 million will be sold. while soda is in high demand. spending on soft drinking topping $1.1 billion. we need those drinks to wash down the 150 million hot dogs, beef and 700 million pounds of chicken we're going to fry on the girill. if your stomach doesn't hurt, americans buy $133 million worth of hot dogs and buns and $318 million worth of chips. there are a couple of new englanders on the show and the following show, so i wanted to

point out a lot of people like to have a clam bake on fourth of july. that would be my choice, so lobster prices are higher and last year was a record year for lobster prices. up about 7%. according to the early read, but supplies are supposed to be pentful. so they could be come lg down later in the season. >> so, tim, you should upgrade from hot dogs to lobster. >> can't afford them. yesterday's sunburn on mike, he was catching lobstering out in the bay and forgot to butt on skun screen. >> i lesched that in the green room. >> health care stocks. you get your hot dog. >> i don't like hot dogs. >> guy misjudged her as a hot dog. >> can we get trades and just you know show kind of thing.

what we do, tim. >> i think the beer companies are the most interesting because this is essentially, there's enormous amount of consolidation, the margins are better f. you're a player or tap, these are brands that have global reach. the valuations are decent and i would stay in these trades. >> trade? >> i got a trade for you. probably got some time. >> mary thompson's been at cnbc for 16 years. she is truly one of the most remarkable people. i'm proud to call her friend. i think we're all honored she is finishing her tenure here. >> can can we agree? >> what do we do? we treat people the right way? what do we have? >> didn't get her a hot dog? >> i'm going pass them down. >> thank you. >> mary has been an extraordinary friend to me for many years.

>> thank you. >> we'll miss you. >> thank you, everyone. it's been a great run and i love your show and thank you for having me on. it's my last appearance on cnbc. it's been a real treat. >> good luck. >> bittersweet thank you, mary thompson. >> thank you, beads. >> all right, in lieu of the final trade for celebrating july fourth with some companies as american as apple pie, these are all american stocks, companies that general can rate most of their sales in the us of a and could have your portfolio feeling profitable. >> kroger. these guys were the hot stock last year. growing 7 to 8%. you can buy all that food, beer, mustard, hot dog, that's the name to look for. >> all right, rentals america. it's about quality and sustainability. this is a tobacco play. trends are strong. >> j.c. penny. still up about 34% year to date. not under any pressure now. i'm long it.

i continue to be long it. >> guy. >> want to be a tough guy or gal? by yourself a harley. you're going to be the talk of the party. gl all right. see you back here monday. options action starts right after this.

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so, did anything happen to the market this week? the guys are getting ready for the big show. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up. >> the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. >> you got that right, fdr, because the fear gauge is doing something extraordinary and it could signal your opportunity to buy. plus -- >> i wanted to get up right now and go to the window, open it and stick your head out and yell, i'm as mad as hell and i'm not going to take this anymore.