scrum. >> we'll see. thanks for joining us. talk more basketball after the break. >> warriors and oklahoma in turmoil. any way, that does it forrous. "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts now. from new york city's time square, your traders on the desk -- tonight, deutsche bank out with a bold call which would spell doom and gloom for the u.s. economy. plus, gold's record rally and one trader is betting get this, 6 million bucks that the yellow medal is heading higher and troubles are mounting. how worried should tesla's shareholders be about the second half of the year? lebeau has special report, but first, the markets. the dow dropped 108 points. s&p sliding, putting an end to the post brexit rally.

three big undercurrants of fear signalling trouble may be ahead. banks trading as if there's another financial crisis on the way. the yield dive tog a record low and oil falling off a cliff to the tune of 4.5% today, so do you ignore this and a stick with stocks? >> i think we know my answer. you said they're trading as if a financial crisis is about to happen. that's the big thing that's going on. the italian banks are tanking. they need a bailout. on the percentage of gdp will be the same size as t.a.r.p. my answer is no, i don't think you buy the dip here. >> well, first of all, u.s. banks are nowhere close to a financial crisis. just got out of the results. bank have never been as well capitalized. look, the italian banks, this is

the reason the vicks is up. this is reason people should be concerned. no one's being saying go by those things, but brussels, fundamental opposition to what the italians want to do, which gets at the problem with with europe. this is a place where seriously, you've got an underlying country that needs to do what's best for them and they cannot. so, what do dwrou? oil down 5% because the dollar is stronger, because the world is unsettled and people are looking for different ways to hedge this. this is not to me a time to sell oil. i think you have to remember on a day like today, it's the first day back for a significant part of the market after the market has run straight higher. you have headlines that are scary. people come back in and this is what you get. let's not overreact. gdx is up 111%. gld up 25% year to date, so when you say do you stay in the market eutility rs up roughly 20%. staples, 14%? is there a place to hide, yeah. do you stay in the markets?

range bound now, but for me, it is range bound. you have to decide where you want to stay i'm long gds. i'm long yield. i'll stay in those areas, but the truth is that we break 1990, probably go to 1965, probably go to 1810, so it's a trader's market. you can stay in certain spots. >> i don't have any skin in the game whatsoever, but these things are trading as if really bad things are on the horizon. i understand u.s. banks are very well capitalized, perhaps the best in history, but they are trading awfully. as if there's something bad that's going to happen. so in the face of that, can you stick to the u.s. market sns. >> listen, the things we talked about, bk's brought up european banks for months now. it's not like it just happened overnight. these were going down long before brexit was a word. can you stay with the market?

i've try to find reasons bearish. er time i think i'm on the brink of getting it right, the market has one of these v shaped recoveries like we saw february 11th and last week. so how do you fight against it? we could talk about all the negative things going on until the coys come home. the reality is the s&p is still within 2.5% of an all time high. it's remarkable in how sturdy it is. i think rates are going down because we're in a slowdown globally. if that's the case, then the multiples for the markets have to come down. in my opinion. tim is correctly said that they should actually go higher this this le rate environment and i take the other side saying the low rate environment is because growth slowing and you shouldn't be paying up as much for stocks. >> i am 75% cash. there's places to hide. i've hidden in my safety bets, kept it hidden, pu i'm still 70 to 75% cash and going to

fluctuate accordingly. >> you've got homebuilders. you tillties, you're holding your nose and paying up. okay, so no more ewe tillties. >> i have j.c. penny where i thought there was a story, but for them, i think it's a single stock specific story. >> what rings the bell for you? >> i need to see new highs across the board, but most lickly ooen if i see the new high, i'm going to go in where i see multiple expansion. they're not overvalued. we've never seen an environment like this. you can't value, what is the environment though? >> this is why the bond market and yield and you're right to be in yield. i bought some cme because it has a yield and you get the idea that they're going to benefit from volatility. you have to understand this is a

huge, huge bubble. u.s. bond markets are a massive bubble and yield is a massive bubble. it's 100%. that it's right move to make. >> we have talked about the notion, the differential between the yield and bond yields and dwraeter that gets, the more compelling being in stock, particularly dividend yielding stocks are, so, can that overcome the valuation case? you know, how can you pay 22 times for you tillties at this point? >> it's a couple of things. first of all, the value kags case gets better. just in terms of how you value a company. if the cost of capital is free, the discount rate is a function of different thing, but you get to a place here where equities are a lot more valuable and money is free and when there's a chase nor for yield, you have an extraordinary thing. the irony here is that the best yielding market out there is the uk and the uk which if you remove their banks is an export driven market. it's pharma. a lot of consumers. it's ewan lefrled, but it's

exporters who have huge dividend yield where the pound getting destroyed. if you can hedge your currencies, you want to be looking at some of these places. euro stock is trading and a half times next year. if you could strip out the banks and yes, you could do that. this is a very interesting, exciting time to be investing. >> also a scarcery factor. all this free money is really interesting. i think it's made corporations and governance really lazy. instead of investing in their companies like they should be doing, they're taking the easy way out and buy iing back, whic is great for shareholder because stocks go higher, but in the long run, it just makes their companies instead of being more valuable, it makes them less valuable. they haven't been forced to make the hard skigss. >> it's like buying houses in 2007. what it's like. >> i know we don't have enough time to go after that. >> just throwinging them out there. >> you're telling me people are

absolutely levered up and there's first of all, the housing market was full of all kind of fraud. it has cmos and mbs, which were turning this thing into toxicity by the day. the stock market is trading with blue chip companies whose balance sheets have never been better. >> people are buying negative yields. they're just flipping it. that's what you're buying here. just flipping these thipgs hoping for the braeter fool. >> you know, i just don't buy that. the u.s. equity market is like a housing market. >> if you are buying yielding stocks, you have to be aware. not saying they can't go up anywhere. >> said it's forcing you into the market. you guys are more alike. >> for the end point, which is bubbled up. burst. >> burst. they all revert to the -- further we get, the more it's going to burst. >> check the markets.

>> still be the best place to put your money. let's go to ari, what are you looking at? >> that's right. one of our calls is to continue to stay long u.s. and sell europe. it's a relative call, but here's what we're looking at. start with the s&p 500 and here's the key point. once again, we are at this very formidable resistance level. we failed there coming into the falled there last year. however, here's the key point. conditions are much stronger now technically than they were then speaking in particularly about internal breath on the new york stock exchange. the number of net 52-week highs. last week, the highest print in two years. we think with participation broadening, this range breaks higher. we're playing for new highs in the s&p 500. there are some warning signs out there. and some of the biggest warnings

are coming from europe. here's the europe stock 600. here's what you have to know b about this chart. first thing once again, this index faileded tat same level. it failed out back in 2000 and 2007. no secular bull market here. still in secular decline followeded by the break of a seven-year uptrend. now our view is this strength in the u.s. keeps europe afloat. engineer it could start to stabilize, but if you fall beyond those lows around 300, spells trouble for equities in general. let's dig further. what's causing that weakness and it's really been the italian market. here's the relative ratio. italy's been underper foming for years and now, following this failed attempt, fresh breakdown, we think the weakness continue to come from europe. here's uni credit. trend's been weak for some time. here's the long-term look.

if you could see this chart, this stock is now below levels from back in 1988. nothing there between here and ultimate support of zero dollars. if you're bearish, sell europe, sell italy, continue to stay away from the banking industry as well. >> so, you prepared this nice compare and contrast, is there some historical precedent for stocks going down in europe and therefore, the money flowing into the united states? is the case even stronger for the u.s. because there are fewer places around the world? >> i think if you look at the last secular bull market in the s&p 500, the 1980s and 1990s, you'll see a big part of that run was actually concentrating a lot of large cap stocks in the u.s. it was the best performing asset class within that period and again, we see a lot of similarities. we think this is another secular bull for the s&p. so i would, i think you have to

turn back the clock to the '80s and '90s. >> wa do you think of the levels? >> we did the levels on friday. came with those overshoot levels and you have to look for the old highs 21.34 in the s&p, then shoot to 21.50 and escalate up every so handles. i do like the call, but you need to see things get better in perception here, so you could see another slide down. and then a rip higher ultimately. >> if you compare the italian banks to a citibank or bank of america and to the underlying market, it doesn't mean the market needs to train the same way. trading at 40 now. what's happened to the s&p, so again, the banks have sob solvent, but to say they are an indicator of where that market's going, i'm not sure. >> up next, netflix staging a a big se survey jensen. plus, tesla is lower tote from autopilot worries to mounting delivery pressures, is there

anything they can do to turn the tide? and later, one top xhix making a bold call saying there's now 60% chance of a recession this year in the u.s. when fs munz returns. fmunz ret. i found her wandering miles from home. when the phone rang at 5am, i knew it was about mom. i see how hard it's been on her at work and i want to help.

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welcome back. a big reversal in netflix. a report suggesting comcast will let viewers stream netflix on its interactive x 1 platform, a teal similar to the networks they have with smaller cable companies. we should note that comcast is is our parent company and we've got a content sharing partnership with renode. >> i think there are a lot of reasons to downgrade netflix. ten's made a bunch of reasons, i don't think this is it though. yeah -- >> brexit. >> that's, what do i know, but i don't think europe's the big a deal. what's their expansion going to be into asia and are they going to get growth there. you site and the answer is yes. i think the comcast deal means

other people are going to get in line. that's first in terms of a major in chakd be ready for netflix. i think they report in a couple of weeks. it's held these 94 level many, many times. inn you stay long the stock in earnings. i like netflix, just don't think it's the environment to buy. >> comcast, you get a yield. it's up 15%, netflix is down and there's a reason for that because people aren't reaching for that growthy name. they're reaching for a safety bet. think deal allows those to check a lot of boxes. it's great for netflix, but would you rather, i'm picking comcast. >> in this environment or any, netflix is swrus not a name i want to buy. at some point what we're seeing, competition does matter. given the choice, i don't want to be a netflix. sure, i'll do goh with that. >> delta tanking today slashing outlook as june revenue fell by

5%. the bad news weighing on the entire sector today. it's been terrible, tim. >> i think you know, june has them down 5% was more or less if line with expectations. i think they're going to be able to beat their third quarter, but their full year, i still think there's pressure on their business, but to say their capacity is running that much more is overly aggressive. against the company. i think today's response and the street downgraded them, hunter krk wolf downgraded. it really comes down to valuation. even in a recession nair environme environment, the stock at 18, eight times 2017 is trading with a recession. and so, there's a lot of waste and fat and head winds into this number. i'm actually out of the stock. i traded last week to the long side, sold it on friday. i want to buy it back and i think any major sell off would be that opportunity. >> i think what's interest ng the filing, they talked about

their average fuel cost and how the rise they've seen has hit base hit them. $1952 a xwal lon, their average. we are already seeing that here. >> exactly. it was a tough operating environment. they got cushioned by the drop in oil, now, the rise has hurt them. now, we're going to talk about oil later on. maybe that will cushion it a little bit but for me, i'm saying away from the airlines all together. in the aerospace, i'd rather by boeing. >> transports 18 month down trend. bounced strongly, but up against the descending trend line from basically january of 2015, so, again, transports, if you're looking for a reason to get bearish, they come in the form of a transports. >> still ahead, think the rally in gold is starting to look tired? think again. we'll take you behind the $6 million trade that's betting the yellow medal has much further to run. you're watching "fast money" on

cnbc, first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up. >> that's basically what deutsche bank sees happening to the u.s. by the end of the year. red top economist is here to explain why he's calling for a 60% chance of a recession right around the corner. plus, oil is plunging. >> no. no. no. >> oh, yes, it is, mr. morgan. and we'll tell you why the commodities king, dennis gartman, says the top is in for crude. plus, how he's playing the move now, when "fast money" returns. . you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans

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could mean trouble for the rest of the year. phil, basically, the second quarter of a delivery miss. >> bit of ground hog day for people saying look, tesla's going to start ramping up production, they'll start making their delivery forecast. here are the numbers for the second quarter. overall, they delivered 14,370 vehicles. two-thirds, the model s, the other third the model x, which they are continuing to increase production of. this puts them behind pace for the full year target. we want to show you what they've guided wall street towards. tesla says it can still make this target of 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles. first by increasing production to 2200 vehicles per week in the third quarter and then 240 per week in the fourth quarter, so they're not changing guidance at all for the full year despite

the fact it fell short. at the same time, till more questions today about what's been going on with this autopilot investigation. remember last week, it came out that the national highway traffic safety msh is reviewing the autopilot technology following the crash of a model s where the driver was in autopilot mode and the driver was killed. people have been all weekend saying well, tesla should have notified them, notified the public immediately since it happened on may 7th. one reporter from forbes was e-mailing tesla saying shouldn't they have a full disinstead of telling nrk its a? over the weekend, elon musk e-mailed the reporter at forbes and in regard to the question of whether or not tesla should have disclosed the accident to the public, he said it is not material to the value of tesla. i've had several people who have e-mailed me or tweet ed to me

today, well, yeah, they have to tell the public as soon as an accident happens. that's not the way it work for all automakers t. law says if you are notified of an accident where a part of your vehicle may be defective, you have to within five days alert the federal government. after that, it's up to the federal government to decide if there's an investigation that needs to be filed, et cetera. it is not up to the automaker to tell the public every time there's an accident that may or may not involve a particular piece of hardware or software on a vehicle. so, that's just so people understand how the law works. they may not be happy with it, but that's why you never hear automakers say there was an accident involving this vehicle. rarely unless they have to do a stop sale. they alert n its a then it's up to them as they investigate. >> believe that you know, not all the major automakers notify everybody because that would be many, many times. at the same time, through the

lens of investor, there's a concern they didn't relay this as material and 11 days after, they go to the market for the secondary, which may not be the legal obligation. material information that could -- >> i don't have any -- all i can tell you is what the federal law is in terms of their responsibility. strictly as an automaker, not as a company in how they handle stock. i'm sure your traders have thoughts on that. >> thank you so much, phil le low with this developing story. there are so many twists and turns. first of all, tesla is saying trust us, we've got a back end load ed year and we'll hit those metrics, but we won't hit them yet then there's this whole other issue. citi deal, of course. >> to me, now they're running into i think a bit of a credibility issue now.

the bloom, now. might have been a credibility issue before. but i think the solar, that was sort of the straw the broke the camel's back. i think the bloom is off the roads with elon musk. i've tried to explain how you play from the long side. now, i'm running out of reasons why i'd own the stock here to be honest with you. >> one of the things i hear om saying right now because of the deal is this is actually a driver, the business model of the company is a driver. i think this is a huge risk for the stock. and again, to me, it's valuation it's at. it's not that they're not phenomenally innovative. i get the big vision of what they're trying to do. the overly aggressive delivery targets that they've set over the years is something that's kind of laughable. because then they go out of the way and they redesign or go for an overly aggressive expansion in 15 different directions and the street for whatever reason, they file this company every day, seem to give them a pass. if they say they're going to have 500,000 vehicles by 2018,

400's fine for us ch that's how we get to a lot of these numbers and to me, that's not what the taken is doing. >> it's one thing to have overly aggressive delivery estimates and forecasts. another, which they've missed time and time again. this is the third quarter they've missed them on top of a vision for their company by gloming on a solar company on. >> they couldn't produce one vehicle and three any quicker, but when you look at how to trade the tok, you look at the near term, the low and neerp term high and the retracement. there's a balance level in tlrk supposed to be the 50 down to the 6118 and that is 205 down to 190. it breaks, you dpo to 170. that's where you play for a stock. >> up next, if history is any indication we could be on the of any recession. we'll go straight to the source and later, crude plunging today

falling 4.5%. dennis gartman says the pain could get worse. why he said the top is in for the oil trade. when "fast money" returns. fa mo. who lives here and flies to hong kong, to visit this company that makes smart phones, used by this vice president, this little kid, oops, and this obstetrician, who works across the street from this man, who creates software. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured. & in a world held back by compromise, businesses need the agility to do one thing & another. only at&t has the network, people, and partners to help companies be... local & global. open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.

welcome back. stocks falling for the first time in five sessions. the dow dropping tripling digits, but close well off the lows. less than a percent with energy materials the biggest laggers on the dachl here's what's coming up. oil taking 5%. could this be a beginning of another plunge? dennis gartman thinks so. plus, two of the nba's biggest stars are now on the south team. their sponsors are not. we've got the details later this hour. but first, deutsche bank jumping deeper into the bear camp putting the odds of austin recession at over 60% over the next 12 months. in january, the probability was 47%. so, we're going to ask cnbc contributor, joe, to walk on over here. he's going to join us now.

he's the chief u.s. economist and he is here to explain himself. got some explaining to do. >> good to see you. >> yeah -- >> 60% and this is based on the yield curve? >> my colleagues, dominic and steven,ed tat yield curve, which is flat. it's telling you there's a 60% chance of recession. just looking at that metric, which had been very xwod. it's lower than that. this curve continues to flatten. it's going to send some bad signs and a a recession is coming. their view is it's within 12 months. i think it's lower than 60%. >> so, what about the yield curve? is it just that it's flattening and could invert? >> the problem you have in the u.s. is that rates probably aren't going negative. so, the fact that that curve, look at two tens, they threed at three tens, three month bills versus ten-year notes. all these things the same thing,

which is when the curve tends to get compressed, recessions typically occur within a 12-month period. if you look at the u.s. market now, there is some similarities to where japan was in the '90s, when it got flat. i'd argue where it is threes, two tens, it's very compressed. >> so, question then. the answer that everybody will say is okay, four is is coming. will qe 4 basically do away with a recession or would the yield curve being so low, not compress yield anymore? >> i would argue that the central banks inspired by ben bernanke have really taken things probably too far. i think that's the concern with european banks because when you go to negative rates and you do things we haven't done in hundreds of years ever. it makes it harder for lenders to lend. i agree about the u.s. banks being well capitalized. we're an environment where the tral bank are acted to depress

volatility. make interest margins and less incentives. if you make a loan, my fear is that should things weaken, then you'll get more qe, which is more damaging. >> so, i'm a devout reader of d research. we're basically at the highs of this thing even though sub components have maxed out. but you ultimately you explained a lot of interesting things to say it could be significant any less in 118 months, but said we think is 1-% this year, 2% next year on gdp. it's difficult for a lot of people to way these mixed signals. not saying you're sending them. we've been hearing recession from everybody for a long time. >> here's the thing.

it's just, the thing it comes down to not if, but when and i would argue if you look at this cycle, it's tired by a lot of metrics. if you look at profit margin, it's tireded. terms of age, it's certainly tired. but the argument is is of course recessions don't die of old age. the problem is is xhixs never forecast them. there's a great series from the philadelphia fed called the anxious index. they've gone through time and measure what the consensus of economists was for recession problem tbl. every time they got to 30%, we were in a recession, so as a profls work horrible at forecasting these turning point, so, to me, any one of a number of exogenous shock, even le election, if we have divided government, that would be bad and we don't have a rot of growth. you're vulnerable and monetary policy, that game is is over and there's no fiscal because we can't have fiscals. ask me why you think growth can be better in the next 18 months,

i'm hopeful, the eternal optimist says maybe we'll get some fiscal and ek tend the cycle. >> just to get back to the origin an question, do you see the odd of recession at 60%? >> i'm assuming they're around 30, 35%. i like to look at a variety of indicators, not just a yield curve, which is sending the 60% according to my colleagues. to me, i'm defensively positioned. everybody said earlier it makes a lot of sense. valuations don't call the end of psychs. in '07, we printed 34, 39 in the third. s&ps hit a high in october. section in december, so it's a tricky game, but i think we're on bar. >> joe, great to see you. thank you. >> recession and eyeglasses there at deutsche bank. that wesharp dressed man.

>> always. >> jb number this is week. what's, right, so if you anything 160,000 and unemployment goes town to 4.6, that paints our federal reserve into a corner that gets continually smaller and smaller and one which they cannot eradicate themselves from. >> if you look at copper prices, they've never recovered. if you look at the flat tenning of the yield curve, no guy's point, that's the biggest number. everyone's discounting that. if it's a trend, the market's in deep trouble. >> still ahead, oil is getting crushed today. the xhcommodities king says it' got further to fall. he'll tell us how low he thinks it can go. plus, nike and under armour finding a new place to face off. the biggest stars are now on the same team. much more "fast money" straight ahead. ahead.

welcome back to "fast money." crude oil on one wild ride stins brexit vote. straight down. hi, jackie. >> good evening, melissa. since the uk referendum, oil prices are lower, on thursday,

june 23rd, before the results were revealed, oil closed over $50 a barrel. since then, crude is down over 7% in what traders are calling choppy trade. momentum seems to be to the downside. part of that is brexit related because future growth is being called into question. weak european demand combined with concerns about the rest of the world, specifically china, all reasons analysts are skept abl kl about the trade now. on supply side, it's not better. a report today saying the u.s. now holds more oil reserves than saudi arabia and russia, the world's two largest exporters. while that's good news for domestic policy here and energy independence, unless demand catches up to supply, there's still an oil glut. finally two notes out today that echo this sentiment. barclays and jpmorgan worried about demand and how it will impact the rebalance so more were predicting will camera in

the back half of the year. >> can oil go much further? let's check in with dennis gartman. hey dennis. how low can can we go? >> well, again, i'm quite bearish of the crude oil market for a number of reasons predominantly because the term structure had been signalling for the past yeek and a half or two weeks there's an abundant supply of crude. nearbies were losing, the con dang o in brent and wti was widening. even as you were rg sa small rally when the contango widens, when crude bids for storage, it tells you there's an abundance of crude. how far down in the best one can do is get the trend. perhaps you could see $40. i don't think that would be out of the question, but right now, the trend is down. and strength is to be sold, weakness is not to be bought. >> so maybe another six bucks to the downside. have we seen the lows for the

year? >> probably. i doubt we're going to see $26 again. but $40 reasonable. at $40, there still will be as long as there's a contango, simply coming at you from frackers who can produce crude oilal those prices. demand is a little bit weaker than we would have expected. but really what caught people off guard today was you had as much bullish news as you could imagine with the bombings, the three bombings that took place in saudi arabia. and over the weekend, the announcement or the report that the nyjer deta avengers who are much more radical than almost any group we've seen in the past ten years, had struck ott chevron. you had those sorts of bullish news and yet crude could not rally. an old rule is a market that won't go up on bullish news is going down. the contango's widening, demand

is probably petering out. prices want to go lower. >> hey, it's tim. why disruptions haven't done anything for oil all year. on the up end or down. even though i would argue everyone wants to talk about europe falling apart. this isn't about global growth. i suspect your vee, this is a simply story and i adwree with that. except for the fact that i believe simply has been significantly krimed in the short run and i get how we can be nervous about oil based upon a dollar argument if you're bullish on the dollar, but outside of that, why not just we're range after a massive run in oil that a lot of people got wrong. in fact, oil's probably going to trade between 44 and 52 on brent for the second half of the year because that's really where the futures curve tells you it's going to be. >> if it trades before 44 and 52, so be it. the world will be in good shape and that will be a very pleasant experience. do i think that's likely?

probably more likely than $38 on the downside. i'm not going to object at all, i just think at this point, $50 is probably 51, $52 in is spot is probably difficult to get up there, especially if the contango contains and probably going to be difficult to push it much blow 50. a reason bable consolidation that could take place over the course of the next year. very possible. very likely. >> all right, dennis, thank you. let's just say dennis is right and crude goes towards 40. what does that do to some of the oil trades that maybe a lot of people are in. people are gravitating towards that because of the yields. >> it's held up on the way -- >> are they okay at 40. i don't know -- the valuation is is way too rich for slum in this environment and take a look at the refiners.

valero made a 52 week low to start with -- that's still within 8 or 9%. something about something. not sure what what it is, if it's -- bulletproof, kind of at the end of a refining psych m. names like eog or oxy or anadarko, these are mid to upper tier terms. they're going to be very flexible and op tunistic. >> the oil price comes in and nigeria's getting back online. i think there's going to be a supply issue there. i think a huge thing, have to take it away from bk, nat gas. closed at the highest level since may of 2015 and reversed today down 4%. i think that's telling you something. >> so, from my point, there's three different scenarios. if if you're long exxon mobil and stay in any of those for the

yield, if oil stays above $40, you're going to be fine. kind of a nightmare scenario is we get something like the 80s where we trade between 20 and $40 for five years. that's going to be tougher. >> you think that's going to happen? >> why wouldn't it. we're in the same situation. i think this looks very much like the '80s. now, the outside scenario. this is not my biggest case, but if you get a supply war, saudi arabia and everybody just pumping that dwogoes down to th marichal cost and the cost for these countries are 10 krrs and below. the big call on gold coming today. why one trader for $6 million. the precious metal has more room to run. we'll tell you why it could be a major win for nike right after the break. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. bu.

ch. kevin durant shocking nba fans, there could be a bigger battle brewing off the court. jane wells got the details on this. jay, jane. >> hey, melissa. they'll be on the same team, but with battling brands and it didn't have to be this way now. kevin durant is two years into a

ten-year deal with nike, which outbid under armour to pay him an estimates $300 million, about 30 million a year. nike used to have curry, but when that contract was up, "washington post" says nike quote got lazy, citing a story that nike considered curry second tier. under armour swooped in got curry on the cheech cheap for about $4 million a year. do the shoes fit? don't like to the warrior's website urn news. under nba rules k the team can't acknowledge durant has joined the team until he sign, which probably won't be until thursday. durant wrote the letter saying he needs to move from o can kc in order to grow and today, a comedian almost broke the internet, read iing that lettern the voice of morgan freeman. >> i have decided that i'm going to join the golden state warriors.

i'm from washington, d.c., originally. but oklahoma city truly raised me. it taught me so much about family. as well as what it means to be a man. >> i have been watching that all day long. one last thing, stub hub says after this deal was announced, people were buying season ticket packages. october 15th against the lakers in las vegas. back to you. >> i think we should get that guy on and have him just read things about the mark. fz hysterical. amazing. >> thank you. >> like jane's haircut. i love jane, i like her haircut. >>. >> thank you.

>> no, it's a move. only -- >> kevin durant going to golden state. it's not if you can't beat them, join them. you've got to beat them, man. weren't you just talking about that in the green room? >> nike's value over under armour's valuation. apparently, nike paid well over five times, sick time, seven times what they got curry for. look at the underlying stock, nike relative value over under armour. >> i'm out of it. clicked 10% quickly. i was lucky, but the seasonality of under armour haves nike in under armour for june and july, 6% and we clipped that as well and you have an 11% in july. nike only getting 2%. the time to buy nike is september.

average five-year performance up 7%. zpl i wonder why it exists? >> june, july. >> back to school, maybe people like the under armour stuff. >> those deals are outrageous $150 million. >> when the "fast money" -- i would think it's just a matter of time. >> ef viewer who tunes in. >> he's got something. >> come back after the commercial break. tell you what this is. >> olympics are a month away. durant will head to rio in hopes of leading team usa to a gold. that the commodity will soar. mike khouw is in massachusetts breaking down the action. >> hey, so, yes, with rates falling to all time lows, and this morning, saw a unusual volume.

most of that was the result of a substantial buy of 60,000 september quarterly 135, 140 almost $6 million to make a bullish bet that it could be up by more than 5%. if you look at how gold has performed. this was trading around 115, only over a month ago, so these moves are easily possible. >> is that outside of the chinese restaurant? >> looks like -- they're not letting me in today. >> looks like you're standing in kevin durant's driveway. >> a man of mystery. we got to go. thank you. for more, check out the show at 5:30. up next, the final trade. next,. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.

next,. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.

final trade, tim. >> sell that. trade it down. >> spirit airlines was sucked in by the sell off. >> talked about gold. i think you can buy silver.

something going on there. s lrld. >> general mills breaking out. gis. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you tomorrow here at 5:00. don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make some money. my job is not to just entertain you but teach and coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me athjim cramer. this show is based on one heretical idea, it's possible if you work at it to make