to see if last month gets revised. >> and the verizon strikers coming back in and that's included in tomorrow's estimates. >> swing of 70k when you add it both in. still tickled by the buddy pictures. got to get everybody's pictures. maybe on set. >> thank you both. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami. tonight on "fast" one top technician says there could be trouble at tech and it has something to do with apple. he's here to explain and think the rally in gold is coming to an end? not so fast because one better is betting a stagger $15 million that the metal is set to surge to new heights. behind that stunning trade. later the mega merger between humana and aetna could be in serious jeopardy leaving billions on the table. all the details but first what is usually the moment of truth for the markets? that, of course, is the jobs

report tomorrow. may's report was a shocker, the weakest in six years. could the numbers shock again, or do we already know that janet and company are on the sidelines forever? guy? >> well, i mean, i don't know that they are on the sidelines forever. i mean, listen, the last number was 36,000, whatever it was. unemployment rate went down, right? didn't it go down to 4.7%, whatever it did. it went down by a tick, so disastrous number but the number that they watched, the rate, continues to fall, so do i know they are on the sidelines? brexit is done. doesn't look like the seaworld coming to an end. that's another excuse for them that they can't use anymore so if the number is strong tomorrow, i have no idea what it's going to be. what's their excuse going to be not to hike the next time. what's the market going to do? i think time is probably in accord. maybe bad news finally is bad news again and that's how it sets up. >> and it definitely is bad news. we go into this number and for someone that generally thinks that the market at times has been overly bearish, the market is complacent going into this number because in fact the u.s. job market and the u.s. employer

is starting to lose interest not only in hiring but actually starting to fire people i think the world is going to be very scared very quickly so i don't think that's going to happen, but i'll tell you what. again, i said this on "closing bell." the historical precedent for a weaker snapback number when people are expecting a snapback is actually very high so i don't know that tomorrow's number has to be a -- a kind of huge sigh of relief. i think anything south of $100,000 is going to have the market very concerned. if anything, you know, i would be protected going into that number and i think there's a case that bad news is not only bad news and bad news could be very bad news if you consider where the mindset of the market was a week ago. >> i think the market is complacent and i think if you look at the xlus and xlps and everything that we talk about every night on the desk, gdx, have the pullbacks where they come back 5% and since december every pullback has been a buying opportunity so tomorrow might present itself as one more buying opportunity in yield once again. >> so bad news would be bad news except that it would actually be

okay because you're saying to buy that dip. >> yeah. i think that's a buyable dip. i think the market has been extremely resilient. i think you have to look at the flat on year, 43.23 and every dip has been bought. we rallied 6% off that level, off the recent lows, and i think this is nothing different until otherwise scripted. i don't think it's different here. >> well, listen, the fed is not doing anything for the balance. year. feds funds future are telling you that. >> no matter what happened tomorrow it will remain on the sidelines for 2016. >> when you lock at what's going on with treasury yields and look at what's going on, you know, a number south of 100,000 tomorrow i think is very bad news. i'm not telling you that the market is going to be down 2%, but i think it sets the stage for some sort of scenario where the u.s. is not able to decouple from decreased growth expectations around the world. we just saw what happened with the uk, whether you agree with the brexit, impact immediately or not, you know, a lot of estimates for growth have gone from 1.5% from 2017 in the eurozone to 1%. that is just something that u.s. companies are not going to be

able to avoid that sort of downturn. i think we're going to see that cautious guidance in q2 earnings in the next few years. >> we said bad news is bad news. bad news will be bad news. is good news good news though? >> yeah. >> if we get a better than expected jobs report and it does look like the fed could maybe not be on the sidelines for the rest of the year and could actually raise, do the markets still go higher? >> is there room for a bit of the gold locks here. >> sure. >> the other side of the coin is actually the u.s. job and the leading economic indicators and look at the ism that came out a couple of days ago and china's ism and europe's ism, you know, the world did not print bad numbers this week and actually if the fed is on the sidelines, i mean, one of the basic tenets of my view for 2016 was more fed means more volatility means sideways volatility. if you remove the fed, you can take out a lot of the volatility. obviously we don't remove all the other things. yes, the u.s. job market, even though i said the risk is to the downside asymmetric, it doesn't mean i think the payroll numbers are falling apart. less hiring doesn't mean more

firing and i think this economy is -- is trend. that's all it is and it's late cycle trend and not falling apart and the labor market won't fall apart. >> the other piece is a little more than a percent from all-time highs. how does that factor into market psychology going into the markets? >> resilience of the market is unbelievable. the way it comes back time after time, not just over the last six months but over the last six years, every piece of bad news, news that we thought we would have, news that we didn't see coming, the market shrugs off. who is to say it didn't shrug it off again. if you have a good number, let's call it north of 150,000 and unemployment stays the same or ticks down, running out of excuses as to the reason why they can't move in 2016. >> they are not running out of excuses. >> they are talking about the s&p, 1% from the all-time highs. i'm looking at the knee key just a few percent or a couple percent from the recent lows and looking at the euro stocks 50. >> brexit is a sglern why should they concern -- my point is this? why should they concern

themselves with that? >> 50% of the largest companies in america -- >> the strengthening here? >> as much as i want to see normalization, the reality is the u.s. economy is struggling along at 2% that the world is struggling to do 3.2, 3.3 em is a little bit bert but the differential between -- the u.s. economy relative to japan and europe is barely, barely 60 to 100 bips stronger in terms of gdp and we're talking about a totally different policy vis-a-vis the other places. that doesn't make sense to me. >> agreed. >> and is much as i want to see normalization the fed should not be here. >> if -- if the case is they can't normalize for the reasons you guys just laid out, then why is the s&p and to your point in a gap basis trading around 23 times forward earnings in an environment where global growth is absolutely slowing down? think we've all just stated that to some degree? >> said it a million times, it's so boring to. me it seems like the safety trade. when you think about it here. >> it's the only trade, but

the -- the point is i don't know what brings an end to that. another shoe, and it has to be different than what we've seen right now. it has to be a european banking crisis that really takes hold. >> just that's actually happening. haven't even mentioned yet. >> it's got tone something that people start to fear. it the seems like this market has become -- we've talked about the teflon market t.shrugged off everything, everything. >> is everybody feeling a little bit defensive going into this number tomorrow? >> yes. >> i've been defensive. not just tomorrow. i've been scared of this thing for a long, long time, but my point has been, listen, i see all the potential pitfalls and i thought a couple times it would actually lead to the market selling off in a meaningful way, hasn't yet, so, again, i don't know what will cause it to do so. >> think about pepsi because this is a very important earnings release that came out today. going into what's really the -- the head of earnings season.

they have global growth, not something you can rush away from a global perspective. a global company with a phenomenal u.s. bits and phenomenal growth out of the snacks business and vis-a-vis the competitors but the global business is stronger. again, not terribly sexy, a food stock and these are the ones that have been performing but to say there aren't places to invest in this market with great companies that are growing and in some cases taking advantage of weaker currencies around the world so that's what you need to be looking for. >> the s&p came within 1.3% of hitting a new high today before retreating so just how likely are new highs this year? we've got a strategic research partner at the smart board to break it all down. hey, chris, what are you watching? >> as we move over the next couple of weeks the single most important piece of data we're looking at is on any breakout how many stocks are involved in that move? i want to see individually what the new high data looks like, and if there's one thing we know to be true over time, durable bull markets are always associated with an expanding new high list, so on any breakout of

the s&p we want to see the number of stocks participating in that move expanding. historically when you get about 30% of the s&p making a new high, your forward returns are pretty good over the next three and six months. it's what we saw coming off the 2011 low. it's what we saw in 2012, and it's what has been anemic over the last year and a half. this is important data for us going forward, and i would also just note, it's not just the s&p, this is the nasdaq 100, sideways for the last 18 months. 50% of the nasdaq 100 is above its 200-day, 50% is below. that means dispersion. there are opportunities on the short side. we still don't like apple here. this looks vulnerable to us in a downtrend. ultimately we think 90 breaks and this goes lower, and then conversely when you look at some. semiconductors on the positive side of the tape, this is lamb research. we think this one goes higher and it's been basing for the last year and a half above 80 and 59 is our target here and semis in general look good.

apple, we're not there and for the market let's watch that new high data. >> okay. chris, let's be clear here in terms of apple, is it a short here? >> i think anywhere back in this $95 range is a spot where we certainly want to back away from this. this is 18 months of lower highs. the market, as we say, is 1 it is from a new high. this is 30% from a new high. this divergence is telling. this is the fourth time that we've been near these $990 levels. i think ultimately that does not hold and we see lower prize over coming months. >> back to the s&p 500 in terms of the deteriorating breadth. i mean, have we seen other periods in which this has persisted for a long time but the s&p 500 manages still to grind higher. i'm just wondering if this is truly different or if we've seen this before and how it resolves? >> we saw it in '99 through 2000 and i think it was maybe guy in the desk who mentioned late-cycle leadership. you tend to see the late cycle where a market is near new highs but the individual stocks

participating in that haven't expanded. if this is a multi-month or multi-move higher i want to see a number of stocks in this expand. >> thanks for coming by. chris verrone. where do we stand on chris' picks and wre he stands for the s&p 235-5-hundred? >> as far as apple goes, i like the company and i don't like the chart either. i don't own the name. i'm not terribly concerned because i think it is probably a quarter or a two away from a turnaround. meantime, i really like the retail sector in terms of the charts. again, that's part of what we're talking about. look at gap and macy's, names that since their first quarter earnings have actually put in bottom and in terms of the breadth and part of the market people are not expecting, that's very interesting to poe. >> as you think about apple, it's important to mention samsung had a big quarter trading a couple% from its all-time highs. swift sales with the galaxy phones here. when you think about apple we know the known is coming in late september and know people are not upgrading this summer. they also gave really poor guidance for the quarter just

ended in june so i think it's really a tough trade here at 95, 92 bucks to kind of press it on the short side. if they do miss the guidance they already gave and they were to guide softly, with tim, probably a quarter away. somewhere with an eight handle and that's where you start dollar averaging with apple. >> chipotle down today on the words of one tweet and take a look at this tech stock, juno farm suit calls tanking after the fda announced it's putting a hold on one of its products. meg tirel is listening to the conference call and later going all in on gold. one trader is betting a whopping 15 million bucks that the yellow metal is set to surge to new heights. we'll take you behind that stunning trade when "fast money" returns. ♪

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welcome back to f-money. another tough day for chipotle which kicks off our top trades tonight. the stock falling more than 2.5% after best selling author who authored the jason bourne series tweeted that his editor ended up in urgent care after eating at one of chipotle's stores and earlier this week chipotle release had new short film

detailing its commitment to using fresh quality ingredients, perhaps a dig at mcdonald's. chipotle says they are aware of a tweet about a possible sick customer but there are no reports of illness at any of its new york restaurants. guy? >> i think we've done a decent job with this of telling people to steer clear of the headline risk and then you see a day like today, down another 2.5%, you know, facing 52-week lows, what we're talking about. valuation-wise, believe it or not, i still think it's a pretty expensive stock north of 30 times forward earnings, so how do you buy it? i don't think you do. i think you've got to wait. you've got to have a day where it trades eight, nine, ten times normal value and capitulates and then take a look at it. i don't think that day is today. mel? >> grasso? >> whenever you look at the street and how they thought the initial bounceback should in chipotle, it's definitely been a little bit lackluster, and whenever you look at the space, domino's beats yeah, i'm hard

pressed to find a catalyst to go higher in domino's. it's up 20% year to date and firing on all cylinders. mcdonald's is only up 2% year to date. i would think i would lean at this point towards mcdonald's for a rebound trade playing the group. >> but not chipotle for any sort of rebound trade? >> chipotle. >> according to tim. >> trades at roughly 40 times. not a cheap stock and if anything, let's face it, still dealing with the fallout of actually sales so on a trailing base thinks stock may actually look more value-oriented then it might be in the future. it's amazing how sentiment on a stock can sway. i'm not saying they don't deserve or don't deserve the public furor that's going on. >> it will never go away. >> it will eventually go away. >> too many things all in a row. >> you went to the segment where there's one treat. >> always one tweet. one could go there and has nothing that has anything to do with a meal saying they feel sick. it never goes away. >> the power of twitter, by the way. next up and sticking with the food space, shares of whitewave surging 18% upon news

that the organic's is going to be bought by tdid i danone, makf danon. >> i i don't know if the ownership of campbell's would lend itself to that just now but it's a good fit for a kraft company? >> what do you think? >> all looked at the names and i think you almost have to look back to some of the specialty ones like a hane. you can see high 60s, make 70s bucks, 52 and all-time high. not that compelling. that stock got nailed for a whole host of reasons over the last year so i'm not a big fan of chasing who you think is next, that's a loser's game and a lot of these guys have run up with these deals. >> i think the whole organic food craze is something that not only have we seen as consumers

be something that we found and also healthier choices that are not anywhere near as expensive but overpaying for a producer in this space to me is not wise, and i go back to pepsi. pepsi has made a decision, at least they said that today, that they are not going to buy something, that they will build organically and if you look at what's going hon in the sector, to what you're saying receive or what we're all contemplating, could there be more contemplation in the synergies that these companies are able to squeeze out of these deals is immense. pepsi has $1 billion of synergies that they will weave into next year's earnings and that to me is something that should make these deals continue to be front burner. there's still a lot that can be done in the space. the premium pinnacle foods is a name i mention, not because it's terribly sexy. >> especially since mondelez is looking to fend off a takeover as well. >> going back to hane. 22 times forward earnings and sounds expensive and look at whitewave, talking about in

wwav, that stock is trading close to 40 times forward earnings so on a relative value basis and know irwin and how he operates, irwin simon, hane up 7% today is worth a shot on the long side. >> when mel said danone i thought of dam ho ne. you did not get that. >> what concert tickets was damone selling? what was the name of the group. >> why do you ask me things you know i don't know. >> the magic of alexander. >> this is a total waste of time. >> okay. let's move on. still ahead, the hottest names in media gathering in sun valley, idaho this week and one very notable ceo has decidedly skipped this hot ticket event. who the mystery man is and whether investors should be worried. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> the one big stock big phrma is clamoring to get its hands on. >> surely you can't be serious.

>> oh, definitely we're suious and we'll tell you the name and how to play it. >> go ahead, make my day. >> we'll make your day all right because one trader is going all in on goal. we'll take you behind the $15 million bet that the precious metal is about to soar to new heights when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money." time to a major buzz kill, humana and aetna getting slammed after the department of justice wants to meet with both companies ahead of the merger citing significant concerns. aetna said it would sell billions in assets ahead that have deal. grasso, i'm curious. where do you stand on this trade? >> well, whenever you have the

issue of the unknown, it's a scary thing so we always worry about political headwinds and this is really ripe for the space that they would pick, the sector and names that they would pick so i don't have any edge here and i don't think anyone as an investor has an edge and you see what happened today. you have no way of protecting your portfolio unless you're doing with options. >> to a news alert on biotech stocks. plunging in the after hours session. she joins us with the very latest. what a dramatic decline. >> it's a surprise, a horrible surprise to everyone so this is a new class of immunotherapy so essentially we're taking sells out of bodies and beefing them up to better fight cancer and readministering them and essentially after two patients deaths last week juno has been put on a clinical trial hold by the fda, in the mid-stages of study. hoped potentially to even get approval next year and just said on the conference call 2017 is now off the table. essentially they added a new

chemotherapy to what they called the pre-conditioning regiment for the patients so they kind of conditioned their immune system to give them the condition of the beefed-up blood cells and they added a new chemotherapy and they say, after they added that that's when they saw the patient deaths so they asked the fda if they could go back to the old regimen for the trial and the fda said we need you to resubmit documents reflectsing this and juno said they will do that this week. the fda could take up to 30 days to respond hoping it will go more quickly than that and what you're seeing is not only juno tanking but other companies in this space knowned a "k" t, kite, bluebird and celgene to some extent because they have partnerships in this area all going down as well and what people are saying more broadly for biotech is more bad news. a reminder that this is a very risky space and really bad across the sector right now. >> sounds like it's very specific circumstances under which the deaths occurred in terms of the use of chemotherapy in conjunction with the treatment.

are analysts saying it's too far to extrapolate to some of the others? >> trying to figure that out on the conference call, listening to the questions and trying to figure out who else is using the regimens. the use of the chemotherapy to pre-condition the patients looked like it would make results better than the treatment so people wonder if this will blunt the effect of the treatment. >> take a look, the biotechs down about a peers in the after hours session in part on this news. guy, where do you guy here? >> i think the science -- the science still makes -- the science works. the "k" t science works. celator is sort of an offshoot and you saw what happened. got bought for a huge premium a month and a half ago, and the science works. obviously this is an unfortunate set of events, but these stocks will come back. i don't know if they will come back tomorrow. the one i would look at is kite on the selloff. i think it's too much too fast to the downside. take a being loo. maybe not necessarily on a friday, but this stock is going to get really interesting really

quickly. >> i would just say that ibb and some of the big players, celgene and amgen, all underperformed. 240, that's the level. bounced off there three times and you can probably trade against that from the long side rather than having the idiosyncratic risk and i know juno is not a big market cap and celgene owns 10% of that and deflates a little bit. looking to pick up exposure, maybe it's the ibb or using a 240 stock. >> jump back in on that call. should be an interesting trading day for juno. meg tirrell, our biotech reporter. up next, energy seeing a big run today despite this year's runoff and one group of stocks is noticeably sitting out the moves. later media meual on stars. julia boorstin has a report just after this. hats for cats.

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money." the dow and s&p both closing lower today but well off their session lows. while the nasdaq ended slightly higher, utilities were the worst performing sector today. down nearly 2%. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." think the gold rally is over? think again. we'll go behind the $15 million bet that the yellow metal will continue to surge over the next year. plus, media mogul john malone weighs over some of the biggest immediate it a takeover targets in the space. first the move of the day. xle energy etf falling. crude oil dropped 5% closing at its lowest level since may 10. shall we be worried about some of these integrateds, for instance, that are the big holdings in the xl sneh. >> i don't think we have to worry about the integrateds, the xle, three stocks make up 40% of the weight, slum jer bay and exxon, i'm looking at the xop which is a much evenly weighted smaller cap etf and i think that's the one that you can sell

on rallies. >> we'll talk and refiners have had a horrible six months, and you have to wonder when is that going to abate? everything seems to be lining up against them. at a certain point valuations will be too compelling and i don't think we're there yet. >> let's ask him right now. >> that's a good question. >> why listen to guy. >> sitting out recent rally and let's go to paul sankey, gut the refining group a couple weeks ago, institutional investor and one of the top analysts here. paul, what is going on, and at what point do they become attract sniff. >> scary here because we're in peak demand. you know, this has been a great demand season as well and we've got bad margins so it just doesn't look good because things get worse from here so we're worried about them, frankly, and as you said we've got them a few weeks ago now and it's tough. it really is -- we thought things would be a lot better given the demand environment and u.s. gasoline demand is raging and the margins aren't working. >> so if investors are getting out of refiners or you're advising them to get out of

refiners where should they go instead? >> you're quite right about the yields, a big play, money is rotating into big oil because of the yield that you get. think about interest rates globally, the credit ratings of these companies is great so the exxons and chevrons and shells abroad all offer good yields and are very safe and the levity look rough because where refining is the canary in the coal mine of the oil mark. if it's bad in refining, eventually it will turn bad for crude. >> i think your call is on refining, like a valero who has that business as opposed to guys with a more retail business, they are the most exposed. >> thanks for that, tim. >> another issue which is the whole ethanol blending story which is very negative for specific refiners so there's a requirement to probably blend et no. the credits, it's very complex and it's a dumb law but essentially the credits to blend are getting very expensive and certain refiners with less retail stations, they sell less gas and don't gain these credits

so the pbf and slarlo will all get crushed as well by the additional costs. >> paul, when you look at oil and you see it's stuck between that $had a and $50 range. >> you mentioned 40 and 50 was basically the range we should be looking at. you sue nigeria basically coming back online. >> right. >> canada coming back on line. isis is not blowing things up, they are actually selling it. where do you think oil moves from here and can you buy emp? >> i don't like it. again, in the middle of summer, you know, frankly, it's a tough buy. we've got a norwegian strike coming up. there's a couple of other potential issues and generally speaking u.s. production continues to decline. i think people think that at $50 a barrel we added rigs and, therefore, u.s. production is going to recover somehow. that's not. it's going to keep going down so we love 2017 and 2018 for that trade. it's just right here with refining so weak and still correcting the market and with the outages, you're right, they are coming back, but there's still some other issues like the

norwegian stripe. honestly, it doesn't look that great to us, and you can see the market action. >> i'm curious, paul, within your coverage universe, what's the stock with the most potential upside in your view in the next couple of months. >> next 12, goodness me. >> whatever time frame. just thinking that your price targets are 12 months. >> the problem with a 12-month call is we're talking about four months of downside and we're long pxd and eog and we like oxy and the big guys for the yield in the next four months just to be defensive and then we'll look for some real hair, frankly. if things work the way they think they will, which is as oil goes lower, once we break 40, for instance, if we did, we would be very interested in some juice, you know. >> how much is the dollar play into this? we know that the dollar bottomed back in february, when oil bott tommed back in february, upward pressure on the dollar and maybe it gets to the high 90s if you're thinking about it. where does crude go in your mind? >> been fighting with the dollar recently because we had the canadian outages and saw a

breakdown of the dollar oil. it's still a very, very tight relationship and brexit is obviously in many ways indicated that oil should be lower because you've had a strengthening of the dollar so, you know, you have to try of kind and play with that. my general view of the dollar, and it's not my job, it sends to surprise. you've got to wait for everyone to get to the one side of the boat and then can you bet against it and right now it doesn't feel like everyone is 100% bullish on that day you go along. >> what point do valuations get in the way. schlumberger, a very expensive stock and safety, great balance sheet, dividend as well, but that's not cheap either. do valuations get in the way at a certain point? >> it's worrying. the fact is people have had to rotate into energy and had a shift out of growth into value for energy and the stocks are -- they look expensive. i mean, we've got pretty good numbers in for '17 and '18 in terms of oil forecasts and the stocks don't look that cheap. we're struggling to find value.

we like noble with the big position in israel which is a fixed gas price contract. you can argue that anadarko is a value and people are big expl e explorer and that doesn't look good. really hard to find deep value like we find like ten years ago and you can find hess with crazy broken down values. i can't tell you there isn't a single stock out there going bust that's actually a deep value. >> paul, thank you. >> it's a pleasure. >> paul sankey, wolf research in oil. >> well, good for these guys, because, again, refiners were a very popular trade and i think some people were out ahead of the curve on this and moved down. you know, when i look at the emp plays, i at least want to be in names that have operational levers for when oil goes higher and i would want to be making a 12-month call. i don't think you want to trade this too aggressively. days like today where i don't think the eia numbers will tell you much, you know, on a week or month-to-month basis. there's an overreaction and the dollar is sideways at best and if anything weakness i'd buy. >> xle, buy that for safety.

that's your yield play and look at the top names that paul mentions, the p space, it's eog, roughly up 15% year to date and oxy up 10% year to date and pioneer up 10% and they have the best acreage in the space. >> guy, you worried about the valuations of the integrateds, people are so pushed into finding yield. >> to be honest, worry about exxon's valuation like an $83 stock. now i think it's 92, 93, so, i mean, valuation didn't matter for that move to the upside. i think at a certain point it does, and i do think crude backs up here but it hasn't affected the big names whatsoever over the last six months. >> all right. still ahead, the biggest names in media and tech all heading to sun valley, idaho for the annual meeting and one noticeable name was missing. a special report later on. plus, one trader is going all in on gold betting 12k4r5r million that the precious metal is about to soar. you've got the details right after the break. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. people talk about "deals"

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welcome back to "fast money." a market flash on gap rallying after hours.

seema mody has the details. hey, seema. >> that's right. gas shares up about 4% after hours. sales for gap's u.s. stores were up 2% from the prior month. analysts were expecting a drop of nearly 4%. sales declined less than expected at gap global and banana republic but increased by 5% at old knave. analysts were expecting a 3% drop so a big surprise to the upside. gap shares, keep in mind, while up in extended trade, down about 40% over the past one year. melissa? >> thank you, seema mody. guy, do you think this is the start of a turn? >> you know, it's interesting. i think this might be the end of the turn. if you go back may 18th and 19th when they finally threw out the towel and started the shutter stores and stuff and we talked about it on the show that night. look, i get that this is a disaster but this might be the opportunity to finally get long gap. it traded $17 on the nose two days in a row and off to the races since. they still have tremendous issues, but i think if you're buying it now, you're buying it at the wrong spot, not to say it can't rally a little bit more

from here and should be taking profits if you got long in the middle of may. >> the gap? >> you can trade that and trade the xrt. you do have a case where the retailers have shown they actually know how to handle the inventory. management has been very good quarter to quarter. i think the balance sheets are very interesting and the comps are fantastic. if you think about where these guys have to beat. they are going to beat. >> let's shift gears to a ssive bullish call on gold. one trader is betting $15 million that they will see major gains in the coming year. dan, get on over to the smart board. >> i'll walk over to this thing. >> saunter. >> call volume was two times that of puts and a massive upside. long-dated call spread 129.50, a buyer, 46,000 of the june 2017, almost a year out of the 144, 172 call spreads, paying about $3 for that, like mel said, almost $15 million in premium. the trader can make up to $25

between 147 and 172 on june 2017 expiration and that's where you get to basically $115 million if that etf is above 172 about a year from now. a massive bet. eight times your money. let's just look at the gld chart here. we know what's happened here. kind of had a really nice bounce off of that 100 level. it's up about 30% since late december which was the 52-week lows, and when you think about that, that trade is max value, up about 30% from year, so if you think that's kind of outrageous with everything that's going on in the world about growth prospects, the volatility in currencies, this could be a trader who is basically making a black swan bet or leveraging up an existing position. it breaks even just about here. we know that 140 would be a massive breakout level here. listen, this is not the sort ever trade you want to do if you think gold is going higher. you're not going to look 15% out of the money a year out. a lot of call volume that we've seen most of this year is people

following gold up on a short-baited basis. they buy calls and roll them out when it gets to their level and keep their exposure and they are using some of the profits. i suspect this is a very long herald of gld leveraging up that position and looking out a year. >> all right. where do we stand on gold here gave up the two-year high from yesterday's session. grasso? >> higher, higher levels in gld, talking about much higher levels in gdx. obviously it's natural. it's overbought. perception is that it's overbought. it is overbought but continues to be more overbought and it continues to unwind there due to the volume and time, and when you look at gdx it's up 122% year to date, so that outperformance that it has is basically 4-1 to gld. i'm still long gdx. there's more juice left in the trade and expect a little more fill in here. >> when do we get more news about the miners. >> i'll tell you what. >> the miners, if gld stays 1,200 to 1,300 an ounce do very well. the problem is a lot of miners

will price in gold at 1,000 an ounce or less especially when you consider ones with less quality projects. for the miners the reality is gold staying at these levels is very good for their business. i think gold is going higher, but people that think gold is going significantly higher better be hoping for a massive, massive blowup of the world and either day do you really want to have, you know, more than 10% of gold in your portfolio? you get to your place where people have made allocations to gold but i think there's a limit to that and there's 60 tops dollars in brexit priced into gold per ounce. >> guy? >> i think higher. significantly higher to me means $1,500, you know, i think there's a real chance that we get north of that, to be honest and the game change, when japanese went to negative interest rate policy and that changed game and look at gold since january, had a great move and is it overbought and in the short term i agree. talk about levels we haven't seen since 2012 and it can actually make an argument that the miners in the gold itself is just getting started to the

upside. >> can gold make a move to the upside. >> it's funny. just think about ten-year treasury yields and look how gold is acting and s&p. they are not all jiving together and that's your question. yes, gold can keep going higher and s&p can keep going higher and gold is really speaking to and sovereign yields are really speaking to the fact that the rest of the world, risk assets look really bad, seeing unprecedented volume tilts and currencies and that's also giving gold a bid here so i don't have any really good fundamental reasons why you buy it but your scenario could play out. >> from options action check out the full show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. >> media mogul john malone sounding off some of the biggest deals in sun valley and one company that's undervalued. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other tn making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay.

our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that inrmatiofor any options series. okay, cool. inrmatiofor any hang on a second.s. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ametre. impressive... what's up, tim.

thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "fast money." cyber security stock barracuda soaring after hours. seema mody has more. >> reporter: check out the price action of barracuda, the cloud up 15%, earns and revenues beat expectations and a number of active subscribers grew as well

as a number of bookings. the company also making a leadership change. the cfo will be stepping down and the chief accounting officer will replace him. shares up 15% next tended trade. melissa? >> thanks very much, seema mody. this space has had a terrible time, even what had been considered the top player in the space, palo alto networks, horrible year to date, 12 months. >> horrible, yeah. >> and valuation finally got in the way of these -- all of these stocks, right, but now you have to ask yourself does a name like fire eye cheap enough for somebody to take a look at it? dan says no, but i think, for example, like an hpe. would it make sense for a tuck-in for them? >> massively diluted deal for companies that their sales are decelerated and sales growth. barracuda, they guided down massively in january. it was in low teens and now it's in the high teens on a gap basis. they are not expected to earn anything this year. sales are growing mid-single digits at best.

why would you pay a premium for this sort of thing? ultimately if we go where i think we're going with some of these technologies, they will have to merge just to cut costs and everything like that so i don't think there's big premiums for these things. >> yeah. all i can say is oh, barracuda. >> mel? >> that was really weak. if you're going to do it, you've got to go all in. >> that's fair. >> i think she brings up a good point. >> ooh, barracuda. media tech moguls are crowding sun valley, idaho, where talk always turns to deal-making. julia boorstin has the latest with a beautiful setting behind her. hi, julia. >> hi, melissa. talked to two men behind the biggest m & a deals this past week and fresh on the heels of lionsgate purchase of starz, both companies explain the advantages of scale. >> theatrical is a tough business and you can run hot and cold and we know that. one of the nice things of the combinations it reduces

volatility. so it gives them a stronger base and more predictability or ability to take longer term bets. >> reporter: malone also weighed in on the sumner redstone drama saying viacom is undervalued and if viacom and cbs merged cbs' les moonves would be a terrific leader. viacom's felipe dumond is skipping the conference for the first time in years. chairman reid hoffman just sold it to microsoft for 26 billion saying it's harder than ever to compete with the tech giants. >> i think once you get into a public company, if you're not throwing off a lot of r & d, ability to do r & d and progress your technology at a very fast rate then it's difficult to compete with them. i think startups compete with them and private companies

compete with them but i think the question is as a public company you're held to, okay, what is your quarterly, you know, earnings? how does that growth look like and what does your ebitda look like? >> hoffman says he's exciting but suggestions so far and is confident that linkedin's team will remain independent. melissa, both interviews up on cnbc.com. >> almost sounds like he's relieved to be out of the public spotlight like that. >> well, you know, hoffman really does enjoy investing in companies. he has this job as a partner at gray lock and he wasn't snowe of linked in, he was chairman. >> right. >> but he said, you know, it's really hard when you're a public company to compete. i found it most fascinating that it's actually easier as a private it to compete because you can invest more for the long term. >> julia boorstin joining us from sun valley, idaho. weave talked about viacom a few times here on this show and mario said basically today that he thought it's a foregone

conclusion that dum ho nd would be out. >> probably a positive thing for the stock. >> yeah. >> trades half the valuation of some of its peers. i get all the headline risks associated with it but at a certain point you have to say the stock is too cheap. even up 4%, viacom, given comparison to its peers is way too cheap on valuation. >> back to lionsgate this, whole conversation between malone and lionsgate i think is, first of all, very interesting. lionsgate, something that actually has value. the classic case of paying up for content which we know they are and we -- they certainly control their own destiny so lionsgate to me at this level, very interesting. great pipeline and moechd into tv and know what they are doing in the theater, like it. >> i go back to disney and i'm out of the name and sold it above 103. the 200-day moving average is 102.51. i think it has to hold there and stabilize above there and if we're talking scale there's no

better company to think about in content than disney, still, still. >> got to weigh in on linkedin here. >> weigh in. >> talk with them being relieved. printing 3.45 in earnings in 2016 on a gap basis. it's a loss of like 1.50. yes, they are very happy to be out of the public eye. that stock was down and cut in half. at one point they were lose talent and have to incentivize and that's how they do it. look and see what you're paying for. >> interesting show tonight. we went from danone. >> right. >> to domond to dumon. >> and you still don't know who that is. >> barracuda and nancy wilson, heart, cameron crowe, "fast times," it's all there. >> and going to break, the final trade. ♪

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>> dan? >> dollar up, oil down, xop, i'm going to sell it. >> guy? >> kenross gold will get you done. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me@jimcramer. i show you technical patterns that can predict the