"squawk box" continues right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box." breaking news in dallas overnight. 11 law enforcement officers were shot. five of them died after two snipers opened fire from elevated positions during a protest march of recent police shooting deaths. tleel people in custody. changed gunfires in a parking garage downtown. the fourth suspect had been neutralized. that suspect told police there were bombs in the parking garage and downtown. two suspicious devices were found. here is how police chief responded when asked in suspects were working together.

>> that's our assumption now and working together with rifles try anglelated at angle lalated positions in downtown area where the march ended up going. the route of the march. so there had to be some speculation from us that there's some knowledge of the route where you would be because how would you know to post up there. we're leaving every motive on the traable of how this happene and why it happened, but we're waiting for the suspects to break and let us know what they're doing. >> officials say there are extenexiv extensive sweeps of downtown dallas for explosives. president obama spoke about the attacks less than 20 minutes ago. >> the entire city of dallas is grieving. police across america, a tight-knit family, feels this loss to their core. and we're grieving with them. i'd does all americans to say a

prayer for the officers and their families. keep them in your thoughts and as a nation, let's remember to express our profound gratitude to our men and women in blue, not just today, but every day. >> we're going to continue monitoring the situation in dallas. we'll bring you new information when we get it. >> it feels like we are a nation in turmoil. >> in the morning, you know, i have the -- it never was like this previously, but you have the iphone where you get into if car within two minutes you know of everything that's happened and i was expecting comey or i don't know what it was going to be. >> or the minnesota or something and i was just like you're kidding me and it's just, you know, you don't know how to take it. it takes your breath away not in a good way. not easy on the stomach first in

the morning. then you worry about the country itself and how we're going to fix this. i don't know. the president i watched last night give a very measured speech. i watched this entire thing from warsaw about the situation in baton rouge and minnesota. very measured and very sober and very -- i thought a great, you know -- great is not the right word, but very appropriate take on things and then this. i thought that was also, but he's got -- it's tough for everyone involved obviously and our hearts go out really to the families of the police officers, but not forgetting what happened in minnesota and baton rouge hereto. you saw the kids. both situations involved kids. i saw the little girl saying mommy, it's going be okay. and the son of the gentleman in baton rouge unable to control himself during the news

conference. sad. it's tough. i want to crawl back into the business news and say you know. >> this is or bailiwick and stick with it. >> you can't. >> obviously there's so many ways these incidents divide us and that's really along political lines, along gun control lines, racial lines. and i probably shouldn't say this, but there's a lot of on twitter right now people pointing out how much of what this story means depends on the identity and the race of the killers, of the snipers. >> absolutely. i don't know how to escape that. i wish in my mind i had a blank slate, but you can't avoid that and everybody is tweeting about this issue about how critical it is. how could you go into this with a neutral feeling that it doesn't matter what the race is. this is wrong. it's un-american. is there a way to think of this in a way that doesn't make your

judgment of the issue dependent on the race, motivation and potentially even religion of the killers. you will see the most extreme v viewpoints on both sides. >> that will say either thing on either side and the twitter world allows us to see all that. >> i remember a time, guys, there was a buffer between the incident and the politics. that buffer is -- the politics proceeds even some of the -- a lot of the evidence in the facts right now. when you read the social media from both sides, it procedures it and even before people have facts, they're out there. >> i would say there is a connection, economic connection, as you always wonder to what degree is all this turmoil created by the middle class not participating, by incomes for lower income americans not

keeping pace for whatever reason and those again become political discussions as well. who is to blame. et cetera. it feels like it all goes together. >> are you happy we let it all hang out on twitter. >> i often say, well, if i came to you in 2003 or four and i said, joe, i got this way that every homicidal genocide dal serial lunatic can have his or her views made public, what would you think? and that's where we are now. >> that scared me. that was a headline on end of days. >> what if you gave a platform to people who were normally suppressed that you could not hear from. you would think that's great. >> i agree. there's another side to it. >> but it's like everything else, every panacea that comes

along has a downside. >> absolutely. >> and i don't think society is ready to think about the cultural minor raies and the way we. relate to each other over social media. the idea of broadcasting viral visit right kneehall is new. >> it's our age. we're too old. >> it's our society. >> i think people are much more accustomed to it. >> watching an individual take his last breath on facebook live. you saw that, right? that would not -- >> how do y >> i saw that jvideo. >> unbelievable. >> the news organization would make the decision not to do that, but you have the ability to broadcast so those are questions. that won't be the last time that

happens. >> let's switch gears here. our top story in the business world today as joe hopes for getting back to it. the june job report. get that job at 8:30 a.m. eastern. the unfloimt rate expected to tick higher. much more on the jobs report in just a few minutes, joe. we're watching oil prices closely this morning. crude fell 5% yesterday. some forecast the u.s. draw. rebounding this morning off those two month lows. u.s. equity futures were positive. got around to checking those and continue to be that way. a little bit of a pull back yesterday, but consolidating a etty good rebound.

dow up. s&p a overnight in asia. nikkei down 1%. finally in europe and we've for the last couple of days, the tail has been wagging the dog. shouldn't be this way. although interesting that out of all the forces, ftse traded better than any of them. i don't know whether that's indication. >> how much is it off since i've been on vacation, which is about a week? is it back to where it was. >> yes. >> so the whole thing never happened. >> it happened to the eu. it didn't happen to the uk. >> it's em blematic about who are you worried about? who needs who? >> the pound is getting slammed. >> sure, but ten years from now who for sure is still here, the pound or the euro. >> good question.

>> with a cheap pound, what are the nicest neighborhoods in london? >> that's all you care about. >> you do all of your reporting based on your vacation planning, your kids going to school. >> the uk, to say they're going to slip into recession. >> and you're golf game. >> would greaece slip into a recession. >> it would not. it's been the most important issue and. >> that's the way you fix things. this is not about me. this is about the uk. >> in the primary. in the secondary order, it is about another london vacation. >> we don't have any plans to go back to london at this point. although you can buy some cheap real estate. >> would that change the plans? >> let's get to our economic round table. with let me start with mr. su

sullivan. jim, what is your number. >> 210. >> what is happening here? you expect obviously a strong snap back. >> the net of that complies some slowing, but last month's 38 is clearly exaggerated. they're not a perfect indicator, but the likelihood that payroll gains are suddenly plunging is low. >> are you heading back to the verizon workers and you're thinking. >> yes, certainly that implies the 175 strike the fact. again, if anything that's a little bit less than what the previous trend was. >> we have 175,000. i think the evidence from the adp report is clear you still have strength in hiring. .

over time you don't have a big divergence. you expect it to snap back. we had a couple of instances where the report falls down short, but it bounces back to where the adp report is too. >> i've been thinking about this swoon we've had in jobs related to the decline in markets, the fear of recession in january and february. the evidence i have from that is scant except for the following, you did not have an increase in firing which is something that would be a confidence reaction. you just didn't hire people. i've seen that happen before. talked to ceos. we're not getting rid of anybody, but we're not expanding because of the uncertainty. >> it makes sense. we hear that from customers. if you saw employers that were reluctant to hire you would also see it in the job opening. there's still an appetite for

hiring. what we think is really going on is the tightening in the labor market. not really many workers available. you end up getting the wage pressure. >> we've been talking about the breathtaking decline in sovereign yields around the world. tell me if you think this is an odd ball question, but when you look at the events in dallas like last night, the turmoil we've seen in the last couple of days, the string of terrorists attacks across the world, is there an added drive towards safety and sovereigns because of those events going on in the world? there's that emotional female question. >> well, i mean, in general certainly things like brexit and worries about global growth in general have certainly contributed to u.s. yields coming down with the rest of the world. when you analyze u.s. yields there's been a plunge in term premiums. >> explain what term premiums are. >> essentially when you think

about a 10-year treasury yield it's the markets expect tagtss for the ten years on average plus your risk premiums on top of that. those have been priced to sharply negative. most of the decline in the u.s. this year has been because of term premiums. a lot of that is global flows. ee easing and people driving their money into the u.s. from other countries into our bond market and that holds down the bond yields. >> some of the low rates are from the fed being on hold and the weak jobs report, but you also have a structural break here after the brexit vote. >> which speaks to what i'm trying to get at here which is social turmoil in the world is on the rise. >> right. there certainly is and i think there's also some sort of social turmoil that's going on. that's not to be little what's going on right now. people were asking me whether ebola was going to bring down the economy. people were worried about that.

there's always things putting investors and people at risk. >> even that attitude right there this notion of what will happen bad, that is the notion on the tip of investor's tongue, the public's tongue, on the tip of everybody's tongue. this negative attitude. i'm not saying that's what responsible, but the idea that something comes along and look what happened with brexit. there's been no measurable market impact. >> there's ab market impact. there's the assumption that global monetary policy is going to offset the shock of brexit. it's almost a little bit too smooth the way it's worked out so far and something has to give, but essentially that's the interpretation so far that we'll get a little bit of a negative tifr affect on exports for sure, but we've got interest rates. >> we have to figure out whether brexit just means the uk leaves

the uds or whether it means the u eu breaks up. >> right. >> it's a longer term question of course. >> i said i want to test. i never win. i wanted to test the counter- factual. i heard what was going to happen in brexit happened: finally we get to test the counter factual. and now i'm told, well, we don't know the counter factual because maybe it's going to be two years, maybe 4 million methamphetamine sisigned a thing to not exit. you can't win with these people, but at this point, i don't know about the counter facts and for the collapse of the eu either. if all those countries got to go back and mind their own p and qs and not get bailed out. do what they need to do, structural reforms which they aren't doing now because they have the mom and dad in germany taking care of them.

>> wealth transfers. >> right. go back and do what you need to do. i just don't know whether you can take 27 different countries. i wouldn't like to try it here with any south american countries and i always make the point, can you see an asian unit, china and russia giving up nationalism and giving some type of global bureaucratic jury rigged system? >> bureaucratic, yes, for sure. >> those are all fair questions. obviously brexit is the immediate issue. if there's another country trying to do a brexit, it's not going be in the next six months anyway. we have to deal with now brexit is the main issue. >> we have words for all the other things it will be. >> i what about the depart gull. >> frexit. did you hear these? i got an e-mail when i was on vacation.

>> you know who is going to stay. romania. >> certainly the long-term prosecu prospects are a challenge: we said we wouldn't do this hear, but essentially that's what we did when we joined our states together, but we have a disturbance and a common bond market. >> let's do mexico. how about venezuela. pick the best country in south america. >> i'm not saying we can do it now. some sort of centralized bond market. they went halfway. >> there's still 13 different currencies over there in theson. >> i agree. i don't think the outlook is all that positive in the long-term for the eu. >> i don't either. anyway. pick one. which one would we pick. >> chile.

>> do everything. >> china is already a 51st state. they got our monetary policy. i'm supposed to thank them. thank you. it was nice to see both of you guys. >> and you read the coming up, joe. coming up, we're going to get you up to speed on a flood of political headlines in the last 24 hours. including donald trump's meeting with top lawmakers. and latest on the hillary clinton e-mail investigation. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter invests will always be. if only the signs were as obvious wn you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can lp you find

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welcome back to "squawk box." five lifrs were killed overnight. the gunman fired from an elevated position on police in an ambush style attack. the dallas police department confirming a shooting suspect is dead and two suspicious devices have been found. three people are reported to be in custody. in other news this morning the state department says it will reopen its internal investigation as to whether hillary clinton mishandled classified information related to the use of private e-mail server when she was secretary of sta state. the state department investigation could impact those

who work with clinton and those who may seek national security clearances if she is elected prosecute. >> a lot of political headlines in the last 24 hours. reports that bernie sanders is preparing to endorse hillary clinton. joins us now with the latest from the campaign trail and like so many newspapers in this day and age, john, by the time they go to print, by the time the next morning comes around, they're already old. i hope at least you're live and you get to custom or at least change and, you know, two with the flow this morning, john. >> exactly right. all of the stuff i'm about to talk about feels very small jux pose with the events that happen in dallas on the heels of minnesota and baton rouge. it's just a terrible moment for the country.

however we do have a campaign that is continuing to two on. in terms of what happened yesterday, you had a mixed bag for donald trump just as you had a mixed bag for hillary clinton in that e-mail investigation so let me first talk about trump. he comes to washington trying to unify the party. get republican support up. had a pretty positive meeting with house republicans introduced by our friends and will cnbc contributor larry cut low. members came out. paul ryan said we're united behind the idea of going after hillary clinton. on the other hand when he met with senators, there were some moments of tension. he had a confrontation with the senator from arizona who chastised him for what he said about john mccain last year. trump came back and said that

you could be in trouble for re-election if you don't support me. blake said i'm not up for re-election this year. there was some back and forth derogatory remarks he made about senator kirk who is not supporting him. these are things that do not help drth within his party. then you have the e-mail testimony by james comey yesterday. extended conversation about her lapses, her carelessness as described by jim comey. that cannot be helpful to hillary clinton. on the other hand he offered explanations for things that seemed bla tent. he offered explanations that were favorable to clinton as potential slangss for those. again, a mixed bag.

clinton campaign came out and said this is over. ovl it's not over as a political matter. and the campaign is going to grind on. one bit of good news for hillary clinton is that she does seem to be on track to get that endorsement from bernie sanders. i talked to a knowledgeable democratic yesterday who said there's still some back and forth on health care. they want hillary clinton to move in bernie sanders direction on expanded access in some form. that will help bring the remnants of her party that have not rallied behind her so far and should help. >> i think favorable is in the eye of the bhe beholder. i know what you're saying about some of that. i watched almost all of the coverage yesterday. the one thing that really struck me and it kept saying it again, and, again, and he almost looedd like surprised at what he found about the level of

sophistication of secretary clinton in terribms of the whol issue. then it was pointed out as the head of the state department, she's actually the originator of what's classified or not and she had no idea or sophistication about the whole process. that's the one thing even hillary clinton backers says okay, maybe we don't -- maybe there is some -- maybe we don't hear exactly what she believes, but she is confident and prepared for presidency. it was either you knew you were doing something wrong or you were just stupid and didn't know what you were doing and suddenly the defense was she was totally unsophisticated about what was classified and what wasn't. i was shocked at that. you saw comeys expression. you would have thought that

before the information, but after investigation. it was water. >> two things about that. one, he had several exchanges on that topic with republican members. he echlmphasi emphasized he was about technical sophistication. he said she was sloppy and carless on things she should know about. she is the grownup, she's competent, she knows what she's doing. if that's your core argument and you are by the nation's very prominent and respected fbi director being told that actually you were incompetent in how you handled classified information, that impeaches her core argument. that's why it's damaging to her.

>> riveting though. you know, i found myself -- they alternate. it was unbelievable. one side of the aisle versus the other side. it's like a metaphor for what we go through every day. >> once you see one of those partisan congressional hearings, you've seen them all. they follow a pattern that's quite consistent. >> it's like over in the uk. you have some of those guys that come in gray suits, i'm a pharmacist. i don't know -- that's funny that some of the house guys are regular americans a lot of them. they're not no john kelly. >> one congressman said look, i'm not a lawyer. i'm a pharmacist. >> i liked him. >> but i'm also a citizen and citizens are upset. he was presenting himself as every man and that's how it went. >> right.

i identify with him except for the really light colored suit. anyway, john. thank you. >> it's hot in the south. >> so you wear -- you don't want to wear a suit at all. . coming up the latest on the ambush attack on the police in dallas. we're going to get you up to speed on the top business stores this morning, including this morning's biggest stock movers after this. usedy this vice president, this little kid, oops, and this obstetrician, who works across the street from this man who eates software. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not st covere, craftsmanship. not justnsured. chubb insured.

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welcome back to "squawk box." breaking news in class overnight. if you're just waking up.

11 law enforcement officers were shot. five of them have died after two snipers opened fire from elevated positions. it was during a protest march over recent police shooting deaths. officials now say no explosives we're found in downtown dallas. three people are in custody and a fourth suspect exchanged fire with authorities in a parking garage earlier this morning. police told the local nbc affiliate, that fourth suspect has been neutralized. at about 3:45 a.m. eastern is when that happened. this is how police chief david brown responded when asked if the suspects were, in fact, working together. >> that's our assumption now and working together with rifles try anglelated at different positions in downtown area where

the march ended up going. the route of the march. so there had to be some speculation from us that there's knowledge of where the route would be so how would you know to post up there. we're leaving every motive on the table of how this happened and why it happened. we're waiting for the suspects to break and let us know what they're doing. president obama is at a nato summit and he spoke about the attacks earlier this morning. >> the entire city of dallas is grieving. police across america, which is a tight-knit family feels this loss to the score and we're grieving with them. i would ask all mannamericans ty apray for for the officers and their families. and as a nation, let's remember to express our profound gratitude to the men and women in blue, not just today, but every day. >> we are continue monitors the

situation in dallas and bring you information as we get it. a key event going on later today is the june job's report. it's going to come out 8:30 eastern time. 165,000 jobs added in june. that up from may. the unemployment rate is expected to tick higher. average hourly earnings are seen rising. this morning equity futures are suggesting -- usually don't suggest a whole lot in the morning of big data point. dow opened higher by 35 points. nasdaq a little more than four as well. wait to see what happens after the jobs report. let's take a look at stocks to watch today. gap reporting 2% in june. that's the first monthly increase in more than a year. as far as i can remember, gap

sales always seemed to fall. expecting a 3% decline. stregthening the old navy brand. juneau therapeutics falling halting the trial after two deaths. a third person died in may, all three where are in that 20s and the deaths were linked to swelling in the brain. >> wd 40 is cutting it's full year revenue outlook after the company's third quarter sales fell short. the maker of cleaning and maintenance products citing flat sales. >> gap is going to get occasionally. >> it's just a one off you think. >> i think number one you're lucky you have this job because would you like to try to stock shelves at a teen. >> is they the best alternative for me. >> no, have you thought about

someone that's really good at deciding what trends, what co r colors what to put on the shelves. >> your not talking about physically stocking. >> no, being the person who knows what they're doing in terms of -- i mean, retailing. >> brutal. >> you stand dpiend somethibehi that you think is going to work and it doesn't sell. >> it's like you threw a party and nobody showed up. >> we don't talk to enough of those people. >> so maybe one of them found something or a color that hit sdps then you two up 2% instead of down 3%. >> based on our earlier conversation, even worse is when the clientele gets unhappy, it's all overall twitter. j.crew had an uprising from people. >> they've been doing badly consistently. >> a long, long time. >> my recollection is of gap not

doing well. >> then again, it's same store so sooner or later. >> this is you. >> you can read it. >> no, they had more stocks to watch. coming up we're counting down to today's job report. talk to the staffing company. "squawk box" coming right back. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under tack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses anmitites cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. ging them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.

it's time now to get a breakdo breakdo breakdown. la salle network has placed over 25,000 candidates and direct hire since the inception. can we start with the macro first because then we'll get to where the jobs are, but some of your comments are a little disconcerting. at least in your view from what you see in the early stages of a slowdown. if not an actual recession. >> i think it's going to dom.

we're in the beginning stages. people want to say with brexit and if increase in minimum wage it's going to happen tomorrow. it doesn't. >> we're in the early stages of what. >> a slowdown. we're going to see what's really going do happen and not talked about enough is the december 1 increase in exemption rate. companies were late to prepare for the affordable care act. culture of company and thousaho affects economic. >> let's remind everyone what that means. >> there were other specifics of what the job categories though, however thars increationed to $47,000 and change. anybody under $47,000 a year is eligible for overtime. >> that's going to raise the cost of company. >> steve: >> absolutely. for the rest of the united

states, people coming out of college used to be get in entry level job, work your butt off. if you needed to work 60 hours to something someone did in 40, you did that to get ahead. now you're not going be able to because companies aren't going to pay you. it's going to have wage decrease because there's going to be less people working in the market. >> do you see anything in your numbers. we were talking about the turmoil. the country and the world feels at this moment. oftentimes there is a thick layer of economic dissatisfaction sitting on top of everyone when that happens. do you see that in your numbers and what you see every day. >> we see -- we place people from entry level jobs up to executives making a quarter of a million, half million dollars. everything in between. i'm seeing from ceos and cfos primarily is they're just not

sure. companies are hiring, but there is a wage -- there is a scales gap. that's a big issue. there's not enough people for the jobs companies really need. >> that was going to be my question. what explains the failure of wages to rise. is it just skills and why would the skills problem emerge just now? it's been -- why isn't it something that's been around for 15, 20 years. >> i think it's been around 5 to 10 years. the biggest skills gap is in technology. th we're not keeping that great -- those brains. >> why don't people in this country have those skills. >> i think there's a certainly level of education that goes to why are people's test scores lower. that's because they go to school 12 months of the year. >> we need the participation

rate doesn't tell us what the actual employment rate is. if it was -- if workers were really near and dear, the wage increases would come just from the market. >> there weren't a lot of people moving forjobs. there's a gra there's still a sense in people want to blame the millennials which i think is incorrect. i think there's a lot of baby boomers and people saying i'm going to wait until it picks up againme again. this is the new normal. you're not going to have 300,000 jobs every month. >> microsoft that you talk about and silicon valley, twice as many layoffs as a year ago. >> dropbox was cutting benefits,

the measure with m the issue with macy's. >> if they sold and there was a flood of retail people on the market, and minimum wage in big city ss rising, now you've got people more people on the market with retail, a higher cost to employ those people and companies are going to be making less money. where do they go? >> all right. we have to go. i've been told like six times. there's other things happening, but you appreciate your time. we're going to turn back to the tragedy in dallas this morning. 11 law enforcements were shot. five of them died after two snipers opened fire from an elevated position. nbc's jacob joins us now from dallas. good morning jacob. >> good morning. you can see it on the facesov s these officers who have not slept, they are in pain at the thought of 11 of the officers

who have been shot, five of them have been assassinated as the police chief put it and behind me what you're looking at is the core of what is lock down still in downtown dallas. an area of several blocks. all around the downtown area, there are streets blocked off here and there. it is as we await the sun to come up and you the day to get started and people to come to work, thairp goiey're going to shocked of course. those who have not seen the tragedy and to see that a large area of downtown dallas is still on lockdown as the investigate here really just gets started. back to you. >> thank you so much. let's continue the discussion about what happened last night. joining us is congressman pete session of texas. good to have you here. we all grieve for your state. >> thank you very much. my home is about a mile from the epicenter of what occurred. i will tell you the city of dallas, it's people, our police

department are all taking the brunt of this. that's not what we want to project. dallas is a very open and really loving city. we care about each other and our police department is very professional. and to see this happen in dallas, texas simply harms each and every one of us. the officers, fair families, and the city will find a way that we will pick up together and move on to where we must become better, but it's got to happen in the entire country also. >> sir, has there been strife in the city? can you see -- could anybody have seen anything like this coming? >> well, that's a good question. there is always large cities always have groups of people that have mental illness, have drug problems, but no i don't think it's something that we

could have anticipated because this was an ambush. it was not one person acting out against an action. it was at least two people that planned, they had the at this point you may have heard sfr law enforcement about what was the motivation or who the individuals are. >> these were at least two actors who decided that they were going to take advantage of a peaceful march. dallas police intentionally became a part of the peace process last night as they were walking through the cities.

they were openly with people to be with them, to understand that we don't want these kinds of things meaning the police having problems with its citizens. and it turned out to be the reverse. this was a complete setup. of course there are people who are criminals. and these were two criminals that chose to take advantage of that. and i don't know how you really protect yourself against people who intend to have harm. what i do say to you is the city of dallas will heal itself. we have strong churches. we have strong people including public servants like police officers and first responders who will find a way to heal this community. but the people of dallas will not tolerate this either. >> we appreciate you joining us. we wish the best for that city in the heals process. >> thank you. coming up, we'll talk about the jobs report. the latest predictions next. the heirloom tomato.

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coming up, we'll have an update on the shooting in dallas. we'll bring the latest a the break. and in the business world, we are counting down to the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. forecasters expect an added 165,000 jobs in june. i do not know what steve's work -- he hasn't told me yet.

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[ gunshots ] tragedy and mayhem in dallas. 11 police officers shot, 5 killed. the shooters opening fire at the end of a peaceful protest against officer shootings. we'll have the latest on this horrific event and the response from washington straight ahead. the search for unity.

donald trump meeting with members of the republican party yesterday as he gets ready for the convention. we'll speak to a lawmaker who was in the room with the presidential candidate straight ahead. and jobs and the markets. we're counting down to the jobs report. we'll ask david of citi private bank and jeff rosenberg. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with joe kernen and steve leisman joining us on this jobs friday. the futures up this hour suggest the dow would open higher by 46 points. all that could change at 8:30 when we get the number. oil is rebounding this morning. this morning wti is at $45.49 higher by 35 cents.

brent is at $46.70, a gain of 30 cents. and there is breaking news this morning, if you're just getting up. dallas police say that five policemen have been killed and six others injured after two gunmen targeted police at a peaceful protest last night. police do not yet have a motive for the shooting. they're working to make sure all the suspects have been caught. three people are in custody now and dallas authorities say one person suspected of firing on officers is dead. president obama addressed the situation earlier this morning from poland. >> today is a wrenching reminder of the sacrifices they make for us. we also know that when people are armed with powerful weapons, unfortunately it makes attacks like these more deadly and more tragic. >> and we will be bringing you updates on any new information on the situation in dallas as we get it.

several downtown streets will remain closed today. at&t which has its headquarters in the area has delayed its opening until 11:00 a.m. eastern. in other headlines this morning, we'll be watching shares of health insurancers of humana and aetna. officials concerned about competition issues and some more people -- some more financial pain for automaker volkswagen. it will pay $86 million in penalties to the state of california related to the diesel emissions scandal on top of the settlement recently struck with federal regulators. and theranos founder elizabeth holmes has been banned from operating a blood testing lab for at least two years. the sanctions come from the centers for medicare and medicaid services and also include an unspecified monetary penalty.

all right. let's talk markets ahead of this morning's jobs report. joining us now is david baylon and jeff rosenberg. we saw an adp number that was a little bit better. we see these things and people complain about quarterly results being every three months because there's regression to the -- that it's too short of a period. we do this monthly and we do seem to see a reversion to the mean from time to time as we do with steve's work on the -- which you just looked up. >> i did. >> some months you're off by 2,000. >> i've got five and seven this year. my average error this year is 41,000. >> are you proud of that? >> i'm very proud of that. are you kidding? >> i'd like to point out economists excited about being less wrong than other economists. >> that's as good as you're going to get.

look. what's you're model say, caruso-cabrera? >> i don't have a model. >> okay. well, put yourself out there. i've got an 84,000 error in february. and a 7,000 error in january. >> you could drive a truck through that spread. >> so the reason for bringing this up -- >> and a 5,000 error in april. you brought it up, joe. >> the reason i brought it up was should we expect the bad numbers we saw recently would be reversed and upward revisions? >> so your point about the monthly focus is a good one. that the market tends to overflow on one month number. we'll focus whether two months in a row creates a trend. so it's going to be the weak number in may which if you adjusted was already showing the slowing. do you see a continuation of that slowdown. the market expectation is you're not going to get that. so that sets up the morning a little bit to the downside risk clearly if you don't get that

recovery. what the markets are kbexpectin is a recovery. >> the other thing we should point out is it's not -- it's a net number. and you're talking hundreds of thousands of jobs being added -- >> no. it's millions. right? how do you get 100,000 workers? you hire 4 million and 3.9 million leave. that's the net. so you're talking about accuracy, what do you judge the accuracy on? the net changeover? >> that's what i meant. >> it's 140 million jobs. >> and so it's in the margin for error is how much too? >> it's plus or minus 100,000. >> so who knows. what does all this -- >> nothing. but we're still going to trade it. >> have an entire stock market on it. >> when it's all said and done today, will we be back to saying 200,000, we're back on track for

that average we've been seeing for how many years? >> we don't have an indication where it's going to go. on the other hand the real story has been the continuation of employment that's gone on for years. of that trend. >> why would we be at the end? there's no qualified workers or there's a slowdown? >> a combination of both because unemployment is less than 5%. as it drops down there would be wage inflation which we haven't seen. or you'll see the jobs go unfilled. >> just one point on that because the other focus this morning is going to be on the wage inflation picture. while the payroll figure goes up and down each month, one of the things the market will be focused on is the wage figure. we expect that to go up. the figure should be around 2.6. if you look at the trends, that's showing you the full

employment data being talked about. that leads to slowing. >> we've had a six-month trend of people coming back into the workforce and you just had two months that looked to me a lot like regression to the mean or reversion to the mean which you had a decline. you could see this come back again where this trend which i think made a lot of sense, you had people coming back in. people were coming back into the workforce. that's an interesting dynamic. >> it's not just old people. we're at a 40-year low or something. >> when it comes to the participation of people in the heart, you have this decline of participation rate there. which part of it we know is explained by retirement. but another piece of it is this inexplicable -- i mean, they call them cramer workers, right? because we don't know how they're making a living. >> with a "c" or "k"? >> with a "k." >> we know how jim makes a living. >> but we have an idea that it does take a certain salary to

induce you to leave all you've got by not working. and those benefits have -- you always disagree with that. >> i'm agreeing with you. and you didn't give me credit for agreeing with you. one thing i cited which you never cited were the actions by several states to reduce unemployment benefits. and i have wondered without any evidence yet, i'm thinking a bunch on this. if this brought people back into the workforce. and i've been unable to correlate this with states. this goes at what you're saying. we're waiting for data on this. did the benefit reductions bring people back to the workforce. >> right. and the bottom line is that we're talking about a relatively healthy economy and what we're looking for are signs of actual growth. both in employment and a continuation of that which would indicate people feel confident and consumer spending would continue strong. >> so a relatively healthy economy, why doesn't it feel like that?

yields dropping so far, people clearly dissatisfied in this country whether you want to look at the election as evidence of that, the violence as evidence of that. we don't feel -- i mean, is part of the answer when you drill down into the unemployment rate those are the college education, low unemployment rates and those who don't. >> there's no one answer there. that is the question. i mean, we're seeing obvious dissatisfaction being expressed in a whole bunch of ways. the dynamic that's interesting on this point is about wages. the average person in the average job is simply not better off. that is to say the wages have been relatively flat since 2009. their ability to advance within their jobs is limited. and part of this is the fact that there's an incredible productivity due to technology.

and part of it is simply the economy has been meandering in its growth rather than having an explosive opportunity. so you're not seeing the type of investment capital or expansions that you've seen in past times. and that combination is i think what makes things feel like molasses if you're out there in the average, you know, house hold. >> we need your outlook for rates. 1.39 on the 10-year. not many people on the street were all over that. >> certainly the story post-brexit is a shock to the global economy and it's certainly taken away the expectations that the fed's going to be able to normalize anywhere near to the path that they were expecting. sop that's taken 25 to 50 basis points off of everybody's expectations. it's lowered the range for that 10-year. and now we're waiting to see what is the lagged impact on the shocks. if the shocks turn out to be stronger then you'll see lower

rates. >> so this is getting to what joe began the discussion with. reacting month to month. it will be, what? september, october until we understand what at least the initial impacts were from brexit on the global economy. >> at least in terms of the economic data. but will also be as important is the financial market piece. right? because so much of the impact of the shock is through confidence. and confidence spreads through financial markets. so long before we get to september or october, we may already have a sense of that depending on how financial markets perform. that's going to be this sort of medium through which the confidence effects flow. >> what's taken place when you look at the initial areas that were really hurt in the brexit vote, they are financials and asset managers. especially in europe. which is a leading indicator is not a good thing. it indicates a lack of confidence. >> and you wouldn't buy those at this point? >> in certain cases, yes, we would. and in the case of asset managers in particular, when the

earnings start to come out, you'll see they were not hurt nearly as badly as one would expect. then it's a question of expectation. >> european based. >> and those in the u.s. that were hurt due to their global footprint. yeah. >> gentlemen, thank you. david will be with us and we're going to be ordering up some starship right now for you. >> i'm glad. now that i've done by marty research. >> david baylon. not marty. >> i'm leaving. see you next time. thanks for having me. coming up, stock slammed after a drug put on hold. and later donald trump meeting with republicans in washington yesterday. one of the lawmakers who was in the room? congressman shawn duffy. he's going to join us on "squawk box." we'll be right back. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." the state department says it will reopen its internal investigation into whether hillary clinton mishandled classifies information related to the use of private e-mail servers when she was secretary of state. the justice department settled its probe this week, that's the justice department settled the probe this week without filing charges against clinton or her top aides. the state department investigation could impact those who worked with clinton and who

may seek national security clearances if she is elected president. >> suspended during the fbi investigation, that's why. and this is just like -- it's not really new. so they're starting it up. i just fully expect the department that she presided over, they're just going to be tough on her. i think they're going to just really pound the pavement. find out what happened. i'm really confident the state department's going to uncover a lot. >> because almost immediately after james comey the first day when he made the announcement, the state department said afterwards that they disagreed with the characterization that the state department was careless. >> i wouldn't want to be hillary with the state department looking into the thing. steve? >> am i supposed to read now? or did you want a response from me? >> no, no. >> i got three guys in my head just said read, not respond. >> at at once. read! >> more corporate news. the justice department has concerns over aetna's purchase

of humana. it would combine the two for senior citizens and investors have long worried that could pose competition issues from regulators. there are concerns the deal could affect competition in the employer insurance market. >> now that they're done with the clinton investigation, they can get back to this stuff. >> i mean, john kerry, he's like we've got to get to the bottom. he's going to take time out from trying to overturn the brexit decision to try to working behind the scenes to make sure that doesn't happen. shares of juno therapeutics getting slammed after trials of their cancer treatment was put on hold. you're shocked. >> i'm not shocked. i'm shocked at what one senator called the dumpster fire that is this election. that was the best characterization. it was in the notes last night. and i think dumpster fire is is the best way to characterize it. >> one thing that was weird was

the idea yesterday from every democrat that spoke, that this would somehow not have occurred if there weren't partisan republicans. as if there wasn't anything really at the crux of this that might be a little bit disconcerting or disturbing for -- >> plenty at the crux of this. >> i interviewed carolyn yesterday and do you agree with the governor. and she agreed. >> 30-year conspiracy. it's got all different people that are now -- >> it doesn't say hit doesn't exist. just may not be in the particular interest. >> juno therapeutics getting slammed after trials of its experimental cancer therapy put on hold. meg tirrell joins us now. are you happy you can talk about juno? >> so happy. although it's fairly sobering news. they are working on a new cancer immu immunotherapy where they're taking the cells out of the body and genetically modifying them

to fight cancer and giving them back to the patient. after two patient deaths last week, the clinical trial has been placed on hold by the fda. essentially this happened after these patient wrs given a new chemotherapy added to what they're calling the preconditioning regimen. the patients with treated with chemotherapy before getting this treatment. then after adding this to the regimen, they saw these deaths. juno is saying they should go back. the fda says reflect documents to reflect that change. as a result of this, this is their lead program. they were hoping to get approval in 2017. this is pushed back at least a year even in the best of circumstances. so you're seeing juno shares falling after yesterday and this morning. of course there's a number of competitors in kite, bluebird,

celgene as well. coming out saying some use this regimen but in different doses. this is a reminder this is very risky, very new. we don't understand everything about it yet. so we're working through that. but bad news for juno. >> is there evidence the genetic transformation is what's causing these deaths? or it sounds like it's the chemo added on top of it? >> what they observed was after they added this chemotherapy, the patient deaths happened. they're trying to figure out what the best dose is. they use this regimen in other trials and they aren't affected. >> are they as successful as other trials in. >> well, they're ongoing but so far they haven't seen safety signals to change anything. >> how do you -- you're not talking about theranos, but how do you rehabilitate your reputation of your company if you're banned for a few years from operating a lab. >> oh, for theranos. right. if we're switching over to theranos -- >> we are. >> that's a great question, joe.

i'm not sure what the path forward is for theranos. >> is this it? if you're banned for two years and you're the founder and person who knows how everything works and you can't operate the lab to say this is how it works and this is why we've refined it and any problems we had are now -- we fixed them. she can't even fix them for two years, can she? >> elizabeth holmes would be banned unless they could appeal this and it doesn't sound like that's ever been successful in these kinds of situations. the question now is who runs theranos. can they fix the technology. >> bigger question. tell me if you could get sued for answering this. is this company fraud now? was this a fraud? >> it depends how i answer this whether i'm sued. we don't know all of the answers. but from what we've seen so far, most people in the health care industry appear to have written this company off. they've rolled their eyes about this. they are due to present at a scientific con frference coming.

elizabeth holmes was to show some of the data. we hadn't seen of the data. >> can she do that now? she can't put on a lab coat and operate it or she can't run the company? >> i don't think she can run the company. >> can we get back to the less sexy story. this genetically modified -- you know more about this. is there efficacy to this concept? you said there were ongoing trials but you didn't answer my question -- >> sorry. sorry. >> maybe i wasn't clear with my question. >> this is a therapy that's used really in last resort situations. so cancer patients who tried basically everything else. and they have seen some really remarkable responses in patients with this approach. however, it is early days and it is a completely new approach. >> people are sick. and you know that -- >> so these deaths do not -- from the juno -- do not call into question the efficacy of the underlying therapy. so that leads to another

question which i know you can't answer. but i want to -- >> you guys are on a roll this morning. >> does it suggest the stock is oversold given the reaction of the market to these tests which is the chemo and not about the underlying -- >> the company doesn't make any money, does it? >> well, it doesn't. >> there's no way to do any -- there's no way to do any normal metrics. >> there's no way to know. fair enough. there's the stock. >> do you tell people you got to white knuckle it because this kind of thing can happen? >> first of all, this is a normal part of this process. trials go through real difficulties. and if you take a look, we had a conference in switzerland. and listen to what was going on across all the sectors. the reason the companies are valued on the work and ultimately they will be sold as into the population and used broadly. the research shows there's an

enormous growth in what it will be in immunological efficacy. it's a significant change in how cancer will be treated and also be multi-regimen. so yes, this is -- >> thanks. we got to go here. coming up, congressman shawn duffy from wisconsin. he'll be here. he was in the room with donald trump yesterday. futures at this hour, little bit positive. little bit stronger. 54 up on the dow. be right back.

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breaking news in dallas overnight. 11 law enforcement officers were shot, 5 of them have died after two snipers opened fire from elevated positions at a protest

march over police shooting deaths. a fourth suspect exchanged gunfire with authorities in a parking garage downtown early this morning. police told the local nbc affiliate that that fourth suspect had been, coat, they used the word neutralized. police chief david brown said it is clear the suspects were working together. >> that's our assumption now. working together with rifles triangulated at elevated positions in different points in the downtown area where the march ended up going, the route of the march. so there had to be some speculation from us that there's some knowledge of the route where you'd be. how would you know how to post up there? so we're leaving every motive on the table of how this happened and why it happened. but we were waiting for the suspects to break and let us know what they're doing. >> officials now say no

explosives were found after multiple sweeps of downtown dallas. president obama, at a nato summit in poland. he spoke about the attacks earlier this morning. >> the entire city of dallas is grieving. police across america, it's a tight knit family, feels this loss to their core. and we're grieving with them. i'd ask all americans to say a prayer for these officers and their families, keep them in their -- in your thoughts and as a nation let's remember to express our profound gratitude to our men and women in blue not just today but every day. >> we're going to continue monitoring the situation in dallas, bring you any new information as we get it. in other stories this morning, we're about an hour away from the labor department's june jobs report. economists looking for 165,000 new non-farm jobs. the unemployment rate, though, is seen rising to 4.8% from may's 4.7%. and the senate has passed

legislation to require food labels to list any genetically modified ingredients. it goes to the house where it's expected to pass. prominent u.s. banks remain a top financial center during the brexit. that came during a meeting with osborne. however, they didn't give any details. attended the meeting along with the standard charter. do they leave london? >> i had to laugh the other day when the front page of the ft said that france is rolling out the red carpet for bankers. like after you have beat them up, you know, said we're going to tax you to death. we're going to force you to move. we think you stink. we hate you. now -- >> but there's frankfurt, right? >> great place to live. who wants to go to frankfurt. tough go there all the time. >> i have been there several times and i like frankfurt quite a bit. there's a wonderful pedestrian mall. >> did they take down that ugly

euro thing yet? >> i think it was gone, yeah. the last time i was there. >> how fitting. >> but berlin is lovely too. >> is that where you end up? berlin and munich are great but they're not financial centers. >> you can't have everything. >> steve, steve, steve. >> what? where can you go? >> you don't need to go anywhere. it's london. >> it's been a financial center for hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of years. >> you think this is going to be all fine? >> i think it's going to be all fine. yes. >> london? are you kidding me? >> they're going to be better off. >> so your point is -- just to be clear, let's put this on the table. that the european union will offer britain or the uk or whatever remains in it, by the way, after it gets done, their banks the same terms that other european banks have within the eu to do business there. that's your point. >> i don't think anyone's necessarily going to put the uk at the back of the queue like

president obama said. >> it is not within the thinking of the leaders of the european union to be able to offer anything competitive to get people to move. that's why the uk is and should be leaving. >> osborne said 15% corporate rate possibly -- >> yeah. >> a buck 20 on the pound. >> okay. >> just relax. >> fine. okay. i'll relax. >> listen -- >> are you relaxed? >> i'm relaxed although i think there's going to have to be some changes. >> you have to say that, party line. part of the big institution, the establishment. it's okay. >> it's 123 days until election day. yesterday presumptive republican nominee donald trump headed to washington to meet with members of the republican caucus. joining us now, someone who was in that room. wisconsin representative sean duffy. thanks for joining us. >> good morning. >> god, i hate to say something that the media tells me because god knows whether it's anywhere

near accurate. but here's what the media has told me about yesterday. the house meeting with trump went really well. the senate meeting was very testy and there was some back and forth. it was very tense. do you characterize the house meeting as very cordial and there was a feeling of unity that this can be done and that trump can do it? >> absolutely. i would just tell you that a lot of house members have a relationship with donald trump like your viewers. they've never met him. they have a conversation with him for the first time yesterday and i think it went really well. donald came in, he gave a similar message to what you hear on stage. but he had a pathway to republicans' hearts when he talked about reducing rules and regulations, having strict constructionists on our court. so i think it actually went really well. and there's still a few people out there who say they won't support trump or they're still

cool to trump. but i thought you started to see the dial move because the guy is engaging. he's a compelling and got to receive the nomination. i think we saw that yesterday in our meeting. it went well. >> one of the wraps that you hear is he's very slim on policy and, you know, i've seen guys come in as president or whatever that know how to delegate, know how to run a business. i don't know if trump knows how to go down and spackle a skyscraper wall or whatever happens there, but, you know, you've seen some success in his world in building a pretty successful venture. do you think he needs to know everything about policy to be a successful president? >> i don't want. i think you have to build a great team around you and you have to have the right philosophy. if you have the team to implement the philosophy, you

can be successful. here's what i think donald trump has going on. he's spending time learning policy. and those in the room with him as they're going through the policy side say, listen, he picks it up and picks it up fast. the problem is when he goes on stage, he doesn't talk about all the policy he's beefing up on. he goes back to the consistent rhetoric that he uses on the stump which frankly works pretty well for him. but i think one of the benefits that we then see is if he's a little lighter on the policy, has the big ideas -- i mean, donald wants to secure the border, wants a stronger military, he wants to grow the economy. i think he's going to look to the house. we have a great agenda on how to do these things. how do you get health care reform? how do you get tax reform? how do you have rules and regulations that allow our business to actually expand and grow and be more competitive and create more jobs for american families. those are the things he can come to us with on the policy side that we've been working on for years. >> who would ever go to the

senate for that? >> they don't do anything over there. >> do you think that trump's act, if you call it that, and i'm not saying that in a disparaging way. but do you think it's better suited to, like, some of the guys in the house, the freedom coalition or -- the house just seems more rough and tumble. you can imagine that when trump walks into the hallowed halls of the senate with all the -- a lot of the lockjaw and everything else, that's not his place, probably, right? >> well, maybe. some will say the senate's a little more country club. the house a little bit more trailer trash. >> oh, my god. did you just say that? did you say -- dude, that's going to go viral. >> let me tell you this. >> how do you mean trailer trash? >> i think that donald has had a lot more interaction with senators, right? i mean, he's had a rough and tumble exchange with some of them. and i think that played out

yesterday in the senate meeting. listen. if you want to help mark kirk, call him a loser. have donald trump call him a loser. that was great for kirk who i think is a wonderful guy. but i think these conversations, we've got to burn through some of this heat to get to the point of unity. you've got to think about it. democrats have known hillary clinton since the early '90s. they've been able to meet her, to get to know her, feel comfortable with her policy. we've just met this guy. and he's our nominee and it's a little bit of a first date and a first dance on our first date. it can be uncomfortable. >> that's pretty telling, sean. i was thinking about that yesterday. watching those hearings. these democrats do know hillary clinton. for the past 20 years. and they're still supporting her! that was one of the things that was, like -- >> i got to tell you. they feel comfortable with all of her bad behavior and bill's bad behavior and they want more

of it. >> exactly. maybe the republicans could learn something from that. i mean, the democrats are going to accept hillary clinton warts and all. here you've got republicans that are still, well, maybe we can do something with the unbound delegates. >> they love her. it's crazy. >> it's unbelievable, these guys. >> in the back of the house chamber there's called a cloak room for republicans where you can sit down and get a hot dog. there was one for democrats. democrats in their cloak room, they have a whole bunch of benches. we have a whole bunch of chairs. i mean, they're socialists. they'll get on whatever they get on. >> i thought you were going to say they serve arugula and chardonnay. >> they probably do. we serve hot dogs. but we're very individualistic and we all have the best ideas and we fight hard. that's the differences in the party. you see that playing out in the presidential race. >> and in the cloak room. sir, great to have you here. thank you so much. coming up, primetime for amazon. will it be enough to push the stock to a new high?

"squawk box" will be right back.

amazon hitting a new all-time high on wednesday.

this just days ahead of its highly anticipated primeday tuesday, july 12th offering 24 hours of exclusive deals for its prime members. joining us now to discuss the value of primeday is gene munster of piper jaffray. good to have you here. >> good morning. >> this is a great tradition. they just decided they were going to copy alibaba, come up with a day and get everybody to buy. and it works? >> and they added a nice twist to it too. which means you need prime membership. this is actually more important than cyberer monday. interestingly they put it on a monday, too, because they know people like to shop at work. but they took -- they made a holiday and really trying to push that prime adoption as one of the key themes of prime day, obviously. >> and what does that do for revenue? how does that day work? how much money do they make? >> well, it's -- the way to think about this is one of the critical numbers that investors

look at is unit growth sold. ultimately that's going to be around 25% in the june quarter. this is going to add a couple percent to that unit. but the most important part is it helps the september number in terms of the unit growth sold number. and it helps with the prime memberships. a typical prime user spends about four times more. >> how do traditional resalers deal with this since it's not a traditional holiday? >> i don't cover traditional retail. and i'm glad i don't because i think they're going to be in a world of hurt. not just because of prime day but because of other things amazon's doing including prime now. so this is the same hour and you can get it free in two to four hours. i mean, this really changes how you think about traditional retail. instant gratification has been the peace that traditional retailers always had against amazon. but amazon has slowly taken that

away. this is much bigger than that's going on with prime day. the i was managing one of these retailers, i would have a hard time with what they're doing. >> price target, what gets it there? >> i think that the expectations start to rise for the september quarter in terms of that unit growth number we talked about. i think that's going to move the stock higher. also just the holiday theme typically the stock is better before the holiday. >> gene, good to see you this morning. thanks. >> thank you. >> prime day coming up. >> can i take that day off? is that a holiday? >> you get all the holidays off. right? you get all the holidays off, right? >> i get some. >> okay. always want more. coming up, final thoughts from david of citi private bank. plus the countdown to jobs report is on. we'll have the special jobs panel coming up. and here are the futures ahead of the big jobs number. they suggest right now positive open. we'll also have an update on the dals shootout which happened

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couple of stocks to watch, barracuda networks jumping after the data security firm posted

better than expected first quarter results. . subscription revenue rose 20% and accounts for three-quarters of total revenue. nintendo soars as users flock to use the new pokemon smartphone game. it's already the number one free app in the itunes store. nintendo expects mobile gaming to boost annual operating profit by a third. shares at this hour up almost 7%. and pricesmart -- what do you think it is? it's probably pricesmart. >> price-smart. >> okay. then it's not about marts. >> right. >> third quarter profit fell 12% missing forecasts or is it fore -- no, i know that one. >> it's not as bad as mondelez.

>> it's smart prices. hurt by the devaluation of the colombian peso. they have 40 stores throughout latin america. >> the problem you have with that is walmart. so you want to say prices-mart. >> a lot of reasons for it. our guest host for the last hour, david baylon. what are people doing now in general? how is it different in this post-brexit and 2016 world where really we're not even doing -- >> we're definitely in this low growth mode. and the question that everyone was asking -- they didn't expect it. and most of the clients did absolutely nothing. now when you're taking a look is they're looking at portfolios and they're shifting they're

definitely looking for yield in enusual places whether it's preferred stocks. more importantly they're looking overseas and emerging market debt where you'll see inflows. >> boy, that's dangerous. emerging market dollar debt. that's the thing we tried to get away from that brought us how many catastrophes? '94, '97, '98. so this time it's different, right? >> no. they're desperate. >> who? >> the investors. >> people are looking for yield. they're not looking to take ridiculous credit risks but they are taking risk in the portfolio to do it. they're also becoming buyers of stocks. and you're seeing that in areas that are particularly devastated. >> does anybody ever call you up and say give me that german 10-year with a negative? do you know anybody who owns this stuff? >> i'm sure people do. we do not recommend it. we think it's a bit of a trap even though the performance numbers look great. it's for further and further

negative yield. the place to get yield is here. it's in the states and it's certainly in the longer end of corporates, you know, higher credit corporate bonds here on both a relative and absolute basis in the united states. >> when people want to call you up and chase you tills, for example, which have had a tremendous run and still offer yield even after that run, what do you tell them? >> we're looking for companies which can grow their dividends which can actually do buybacks which have increase in earnings. places you can expect that they'll be further incremental increases in the value of the stock and in the dividend. >> it's not hard to go from what you're saying to start to think about bubbles and things and money in places where it shouldn't be. merging market companies should -- almost irrespective. >> in so much we are talking about company debt --

>> that's almost even worse. >> no because you can actually analyze that and you can actually make your credit assessment on that basis. but to your point about bubbles, that's why investors should be focusing on the quality of what they own. and be very concerned about making their portfolio. as high quality as they can globally. >> if the wrap on gold is it's not income producing, if you get to an environment where you actually have to pay for the return of your capital, you don't even get back capital. why wouldn't you just go into gold where you don't have to pay to have it. you guys would never recommend gold. 10%? >> would never -- >> oh, you manage guys. you would never -- >> that's true. >> joe, is that where you are? >> no. i wanted to buy at 1210. >> so what percentage are your

portfolios? >> i was just going to put enough to bribe the border guards. i've explained this before. >> don't laugh at that. he's serious. >> so if something happens, i'll be able to get food. >> but you'll be able to shoot your way through the wall in canada? >> let's say i want to trade with someone who also has pointed at me, then you use gold. >> gold could be used to build the wall anywhere. that's the theory. >> this is where we are, ladies and gentlemen. >> you need separate paperwork to buy physical gold. and by the time i got it in, it was the same day as the last employment report and gold was up 40 bucks that day and never looked back. >> he never bought. >> so 10% makes sense, doesn't it? >> some percentage in the event you expect there to be calamities in the world. >> what about you don't want to pay money to get -- there's no return on gold, at least it's a negative return. >> that is the way to go. there are places you want to get your income from. gold is actually a useful

buffer. >> it's negative income. buy gold. >> but it's positive in the united states. >> yeah. >> so you don't want it. >> it was lovely having you. >> thank you. this is an interesting day. >> fun day. >> it was a fun day. >> okay, good. >> well, in the business world anyway. coming up, the number of the june jobs report just 30 minutes away. a special panel straight ahead. we'll be right back. amazing sleep stays with you all day and all night. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology give you the knowledge to adjust for the best sleep ever. it's the final days of the lowest prices of the season sale, with the our best buy rated c2 queen mattress now only $699.99. know better sleep. only at a sleep number store.

jobs in america. breaking news this hour, the june jobs report. the market reaction and what it all means for the health of the u.s. economy straight ahead. decision 2016. donald trump takes a trip to the hill to meet with top congressional leaders. it's an attempt to unify the republican party. the gop nominee wooed some but left others cold. we're going to hear more about that meeting, get the latest from the campaign trail coming up. and horrors in dallas. five police officers killed, six others wounded after shooters opened fire. we'll bring you an update as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york,

this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm steve leisman along with joe kernen and michelle caruso-cabrera. andrew and becky are off today. we'll get the numbers from the june jobs report in just about 30 minutes. forecasters expect 165,000 non-payrolls to be added in june. the unemployment rate, ticking higher to 4.8% from 4.7% the previous month. hourly averages rising just 2%. looking at the futures, we're at about the 50. s&p up 6.4 and the nasdaq up 6.6. checking out markets in europe at this hour, 1% germany and france. 2% in beleaguered it will i. >> there's been commentary coming out of leaders saying

there's some path out. >> and what about the spain? >> spanish in concert with italian banks. when they rise, same thing. >> so kind of the same story. but the ftse up just 0.25%. but that had been up very strongly. so this is just not falling along -- it's trading on its own. >> if you're just waking up, we need to tell you about the tragedy that happened in dallas last night. mike rawlings saying 12 were shot in a sniper attack that followed a protest last night. five officers were killed in the attack. three people in custody and one suspect is dead. after exchanging fire in a parking garage this morning. no explosives were found after multiple sweeps of downtown dallas. there had been fears of that being the case. president obama addressed the situation earlier this morning from a nato summit in warsaw, poland. >> today is a wrenching reminder of the sacrifices that they make for us.

we also know when people are armed with powerful weapons, unfortunately it makes attacks like these more deadly and more tragic. >> dallas police chief david brown and dallas mayor mike rawlings will give a live update in about 30 minutes. we will bring you new information as we get it. and we're counting down to the june jobs report but also watching the political landscapes when it comes to the economy. let's bring in jared bernstein and on set is larry kudlow. he's an informal adviser to trump did the and introduced mr. trump at his meeting with republican congressional members yesterday. jared, good to see you. larry, thanks for joining us. we can talk about that meeting in a second, but the first thing you said when you sat down, the jobs report, you don't think

necessarily will get a snapback from the weak number from last month? >> i think you'll get a snapback from whatever 38,000. but no, i think that jobs on a three-month moving average -- >> why? >> i think we're in a mild business recession. profits are falling. business investment is falling. cap goods, core cap goods are falling. jobs are slowing. and we're not in a consumer recession yet. but if the business recession continues, we will be in a consumer recession. so i'm not optimistic. >> just on today's number, are you pessimistic. we talked about the reversion of the mean, usually you have a couple bad months and then get revisions and months better. and then you get some revisions from the last month. >> you got to add in 35,000 off the top for the verizon strikers coming back to work. my model spits out 150k. that's awfully close to the consensus. that would constitute i think a bit of a snapback which is definitely the keyword of the

day and would get us more on trend. i do agree with larry there seems to be a recession in the gains. to me there's a recession and there's not a recession. and we're not in recession. but that said, as you get closer to full employment, we're not at full employment. but as you get closer, it's not unexpected that you're not going to see prints of 200k-plus. you're going to see numbers slightly below that. i think right now kind of the steady state payroll gains are actually probably between 100k and maybe 175k. >> jared, my love, you know i argued that it is businesses -- and i just want to say to everybody, i adore jared. >> back at you. >> it's businesses that create jobs and drive the economy. and all i'm saying is when i look at the decline in profits which is now three, four quarters old, i look at the

decline in business investment, levels are actually declining. also take a peek at the factory orders in the so-called core cap x. it's not surprising that if businesses are losing money, they've got to contract or slow down. >> so -- >> and then the jobs affect income and consumer spend pg. >> let me argue with you a little bit about that. first of all, we're at 70% consumer economy, business investment is what? 12%, 14%? >> no, jared. no, my friend. >> and then the thing about profitability, profitability was at an all-time high a few quarters ago. going back to like the 1930s. so you expect as the job market tightens, some of that profitability is going to find its way into wages. is a very positive thing. because most people depend on their paychecks, not their stock portfolios. >> look. all correct. the problem with the wage side.

first o all, there is no problem. wages are growing too slowly for my taste throughout this whole period. >> we agree. >> there's not enough productive to offset the cost. and i think it stems from business investment. you know where i'm going. i want to see a strong across the board corporate tax cut for large and small businesses. >> jared -- >> wait. when you -- >> jared, hold on. >> kudlow view for a long time and remains that. >> when you're donald trump's treasury secretary -- >> that's what i was -- i was getting bored with this other stuff. do you wish comey came down harder on hillary so your guy biden could get in and you could be treasury secretary, jared? >> comey's tough on hillary and i become the treasury secretary? i'm not sure i follow the joe kernen mind-set. >> hillary out, biden in. biden might have a better chance than hillary. [ overlapping speakers ] you don't have a yes or no.

you can be treasury secretary or labor. >> you have a guy sitting next to you that is chummy from the presumptive nominee for the republicans. >> you're saying that like it's a bad thing, jared. >> in certain circles, it is. just by definition. they can't understand how anyone else doesn't think of it as a bad thing. you're associating with trump, larry. that's all i got to say to bury you. >> a lot yesterday. tell us. >> i have helped him on the tax plan. i have never denied it. >> so you introduced him at the house and it went -- that went better than the senate. mcconnell introduced him in front of the senate to lukewarm -- >> all i'll say is, look. i'm predominantly an issues guy. i'm not a political guy. so my thought and this was my intersection, to be very clear. i was proud to do it. if you look at trump on the issues, not on some of his throwaway misstatements and so forth. i get that. you look at him on the issues,

he's very, very, very close to the republican thinkers. on things like tax reform, even trade reform they've come together, immigration reform they've come together, budget restraint they've come together. >> hold on. so there's not a tariff on chinese goods? >> in fact, trump yesterday -- it was very interesting. he said he is in favor of trade. he understands the benefits of trade. it is something i hoped he would say and he said it. >> that's new. we haven't heard that. >> i understand. i'm telling you, i was there. he also said you have to enforce the laws. if you make a deal with china or whomever, you've got to enforce the laws. now, a free trader like myself who believes strongly in the benefits of free trade, there's no reason i can't agree that these treaties should be enforced and if it's statuetory law, you can do that. >> we've got to go.

let me finish up with jared. jared, i've heard people say that you've associated yourself with hillary clinton. after this past week, i'm not sure what that makes you, either, at this point, my friend. is that true? have you associated yourself with -- did you see what happened this week? were you privy to that? >> look, i'm obviously progressive side of the aisle economist. i've worked for democrats. but i've not associated myself with any campaign. >> oh! >> all right. you got that going for you. anyway, you can fall back on that. so what did you make of this week? the competency thing now, i mean the trustworthiness thing, i've never -- that's kind of settled. but now i'm hering she has no idea what's classified, how to do it. she was ahead -- she was secretary of state and didn't understand classified info? >> there's this thing that goes on this time of year where people inside the beltway -- you're in new york but you might as well be in the beltway -- obsess about things that a lot of other people are done with. and i think that's where this

week lands you. i don't think anybody who is firmly on one side or the other had their mind changed by the events of this week. i think everybody wants to move on. >> jared, does it bother you that it's possible that the next president of the united states was described by the head of the fbi as being extremely careless with classified material? >> yeah, no. and i'll tell you why? >> it doesn't bother you? >> i've interacted with hillary clinton and while she was careless and reckless in this incident, you would never describe her as a careless or reckless person on all of the many issues that a president has to deal with. so i think she would make a very good president. but yeah, these issues are real. she's apologized. the question is, you know, is she going to learn from this mistake? and i believe she will. >> all right, jared. good to see you. thanks. >> i'm sticking around. you're not done with me. >> all right. you've got the capitol behind you. if anybody's in the beltway --

>> correct. i was supposed to be there with you today and there's an airline i won't name them because they may be a sponsor but their name rhymes with felta and completely messed me up last night. >> the producer will not let me speak but i have additional things to say if we get around to it. >> oh, we'll get around to it. >> what do they call -- >> all right. we got to -- >> you got to read. >> turning back to the story in dallas and the tragedy, gabe gutierrez joins us from the scene of the deadly shooting. good morning, gabe. >> reporter: hi, guys. good morning. yes, a devastating morning here for the city of dallas. as the sun comes up, the enormity of all this is sinking in. much of downtown is shut down. they finished sweeps for explosives and so far have found none. the mayor's office has confirmed it was 12 officers that were

shot. five of them are dead. two civilians were also shot. now, the investigation is under way. this is the deadliest attack on u.s. law enforcement since 9/11. and there are three suspects in custody in addition to the fourth suspect that was killed in that shootout with police after being in that parking garage for much of the night. police say so far the three other suspects have not been cooperative. right now it's unclear what exactly their relationship was to the demonstration that was happening here in downtown dallas last night. of course this demonstration protesting police violence in other parts of the country. in minnesota and louisiana earlier this week. it was a protest against violence when violence erupted. this is not far from daley plaza, the place where john f. kennedy was assassinated less than a century ago. and now the city dealing with another enormous tragedy. the latest numbers from the mayor's office here, 12 officers

shot, 5 of them dead. in addition to that, two civilians were also shot and they are recovering at this point in the hospital. guys, back to you. >> thanks very much. coming up, we're minutes away from the june jobs number. the stakes are high after may's disappointing report. anastasia amoroso will join our panel next. you are watching cnbc.

we are counting down to the june jobs report. about 13 minutes away. investors looking for clues about the state of the u.s. economy as markets grapple with the brexit aftershock. joining us now, anastasia amoroso global market strategist at jpmorgan funds. good to have you here. >> good morning. >> what are you doing in the market with all the volatility related to the fed and central banks? >> you'd be surprised to find out i'm not doing a whole lot. all i'm doing is in the credit markets. but there's nothing to do but wait for the jobs report. but actually it's much more beyond the jobs report. because any data we get now is going to be a pre-brexit data.

we live in a post-brexit world. >> when you say we're not doing anything in equities, we're in fixed income. you're in the credit markets. does that mean you have allocated little to equities or you're doing a lot more trading or moving your assets? >> yeah. we're thinking of the overall allocation between stocks and bonds. one of the things that has been clear is the equity markets is lacking direction. frankly the fed lacks direction. because of that we've been taking equity exposure and allocating that to credit. high yield and also investment grade. >> can i ask -- more than brexit for the u.s. i worry about the decline of profits. >> yes. >> i'd like to be an optimist on stocks. more than not i am. but profits are falling. i don't see any letup in that. it's hard to get optimistic about stocks. >> it's not a good sign, you're right. i'm going to give a positive and negative on this one.

the positive is as we get into next week and the following week, it'll be better than the first quarter's reporting. >> why is that? >> because we're shaking off the oil decline. we're shaking off the dollar surge that has weighed on earnings over the past year. so that's the good news. right? the bad news is as we shake those things off, there's still the wage pressure we have to think about which is one of the things we'll be watching for in today's jobs report. >> i agree. without productivity which is nil, the rise in wages means that business costs are rising faster than prices. >> you're right. >> that's a classic profit squeeze. >> you're right. if you look at the latest unit cost labor report, that's what you're seeing. by the way, great news for the consumer, right? the share of wages are rising as related to real output. the challenge is the real output

is not rising fast enough. >> and we'll watch the wage number when it comes out in about 11 minutes. stick around. >> i will. coming up, we'll have an update on the tragedy in dallas. plus we're counting down to the june jobs report. we'll have the numbers and the instant market reaction. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." an update on the tragedy in dallas. two snipers ambushed police officers following a peaceful rally protesting police shootings. 12 officers were shot. five of those were killed. three suspects in custody and a fourth is dead. no explosive devices were found after multiple searches. elizabeth holmes getting the boot. the theranos founder has been banned from operating a blood testing lab for two years. regulatory approval for the theranos california lab has also been pulled. the company announcing the sanctions late last night. theranos has also been fined an

undisclosed amount. snapchat's facing a lawsuit over claims of sexual content. the class action lawsuit was filed by a boy and his mother saying they were offended by the explicit content in the discover tab. that's where they can see posts made exclusively for snapchat. the lawsuit seeks civil penalties and an in-app warning about the platform's sexual content. snapchat said we are sorry if people were offended. and uber is raising $1.15 billion from a new high yield loan. the leverage loan is the first for uber and it brings the amount raised in equity. uber will pay a yield of 5%.

>> that's high yield. >> do you think interest expense should be deductible? >> i do think so, yes. >> you're wrong. it's bad tax policy. >> because it creates a -- >> guys, we got the data. coming up, we've got the final countdown. the jobs report, instant market reaction. as we head to break, take a look at u.s. equity futures ahead of the number. dow would open higher by 48. we'll see what happens after.

it's the final countdown to the june jobs report. let's go around the horn and get final predictions from our jobs panel. steve, what is your prediction? >> 150,000. 109,000 and then 35,000 for the -- >> i didn't ask for those. >> i'm giving them anyway. >> larry? >> whatever steve leisman says,

i'm taking the under. >> ouch. >> so less than 150,000. >> yes. i think i scored your thing 135k. i was waiting for steve to be the under. >> another long winded explanation. >> jared? >> 150k. and fear not wage growth. >> okay. i didn't ask you that either. but everybody's chiming in today. okay. anastasia. >> i'm going with 210,000. >> ooh! >> i hope you're right. >> that's what i'm going with. >> rick santelli. >> we're going to go 200k. 200,000. >> and the only one to just answer the question straight up. thank you very much. why are you taking the under, larry, of 150,000? >> i just think business is slumping. i think that has a bad impact. i think last month was an aberration. i get that. as steve said, you're going to get the verizon workers back. we're trending lower. >> business data has been good.

all the employment numbers, they have been coming in better than expected. i think we'll see that rebound. >> the trend is much lower. it's 110, maybe 120. but they had the verizon workers and no one can forecast what the government's going to do. >> all right. three seconds until we get the jobs report. >> what is it? >> 287,000. june non-farm payrolls increase by 287,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.9%. average hourly earnings increasing just 0.1 of 1%. way above the consensus, obviously. but june private sector job growth increased by 265,000. but we had net downward revisions for april and may. april was 21,000 jobzs higher than previously reported. however, may was revised downward 27,000 jobs fewer than what had been previously reported. to just 6,000. so we had a net decrease for the

two months of 6,000. job gains in june, leisure hospitality up 59,000. health and social assistance, 58,000. health and information, up 44,000. professional and business services, plus 38,000. retail trade plus 30,000. we got the 4.9% unemployment rate because there was an increase of 347,000 in the number of unemployed only an increase of 67,000 on the employment side. long-term unemployed increased by 211,000 in june. including the roller coaster we've now seen for may and june, the average job growth for the last three months is now averaging 147,000 per month. back to you. >> thank you. hey, santelli, what did i see on the 10-year yield?

sorry, it's joe. sorry. >> 1.33. buckle up. we are rising. 1.43. >> the futures should go down because the fed can't help anymore. they're not going -- they're not doing anything anyways. this should eventually be good news. hopefully that's the day. >> i can't tell you what the fed is going to do but it is good news. >> least man, i am shocked that -- i like reversion to the mean we talked about. but we asked when do we start getting the good numbers for the november election, and i think this is too early. >> it's also too early for you to be calling for the conspiracy. >> it's never too early. >> it's too early. >> don't you think they should have banked this and do it next month or the month after? >> i don't understand why they wouldn't play politics with this number. can i talk about the number first? >> one point. anastasia won.

>> thank you. optimism won. >> but i will say this. 147,000 three-month moving average. you've got to smooth these crazy numbers. >> that's my number. >> so you've got 280,000-plus in december to 147,000 through june. all right? so you've got a downward trend -- i'm holding my trend. a downward trend in the average jobs. that's all i'm going to say. >> that's true. [ overlapping speakers ] >> she said i'm making an important point. >> it's an important point that even though we've got this better than expected jobs number, the thing to acknowledge here is the overall pace of job creation has been slowing down. and will likely continue to slow down in the future. we're well past the peak which we saw in february of 2015. the reality is that 4.7% or in this case 4.9% unemployment, you're starting to run into labor constraints which is why wages are rising.

so it's great that we got this number, but i certainly wouldn't expect it headed into november. >> just bailed me out. thank you. >> you have -- we talked about this earlier. another influx into the workforce after two declines. 414,000 people coming back to the workforce. they did not find work, though, so the unemployed rose. >> is it 60 -- >> the participation rate? i didn't get that. what did you say it was? >> 62.7 participation rate. >> it ticked up a little bit. >> and the 12-month change in hourly earnings. we need that. >> 2.6%. >> that's up, if i'm not mistaken. >> up slightly. it's down a little bit below consensus. good number. >> what do you do with a number like this that comes in last month, it was revised up in april. so you don't have a clear trend

of downward revisions. you smooth it out. >> smoothing story as anastasia tried to explain, is that it slowed. which was my point. >> it slowed but did it slow in a worrisome way? >> you are genius. you came in and said whatever it is i'm below it. and it's 280 and you're still right. >> at least he's going after you. >> i've got jpmorgan behind me. best bank in the country. you're smoothing. you're smoothing it from 280 and change to what? 140 and change. that's a big drop, steve. that's a slowdown. >> am i more worried or less worried about the u.s. economy? >> neither. i mean, i really -- this is an important number. this is a really important number for the fed. this is the exact number the fed wants to see. this really supports the notion that janet yellen had last week or last month that this is an

aberration. >> what happens to all the people last month who said this 11,000 shows the obama economy is not producing jobs? do they now -- >> can i please interject? >> republicans said that last month. >> so look -- >> go ahead, jared. >> thank you. look. this volatility thing really has to be taken seriously. the u.s. job market did not create 11,000 jobs in may and it didn't create 287,000 jobs in june. you have to smooth the number. anastasia is right. i'm not taking anything away from her brilliant prediction. >> hold on. she predicted 210. it was 287. >> the smooth numbers about 150k is about where you'd want to be at this part of the cycle. sure we'd love to see numbers north of 200k but this is kind of a smooth path on the way to unemployment. >> but it's slower, jared. will you acknowledge that smooth

is way slower? that's all. >> it is. the trend -- >> it's not a disaster. but i think it is picking up the overall weakness and slump in business. that's all i'm going to say. >> -- you've got percolating. you've got a trend of 150k. we'd like to see more, but that does keep on the path. it's impressive we're adding jobs even as the participation rate is coming in. if you smooth things out, you got a solid report. i discount the 287 just like i discount the 11 in may. >> do we have the hours work number? >> i'll double check. i don't have the numbers. >> before this number came out, we talked about a reversion to the mean. we talked about how it's actually millions of jobs being added and lost. it's always off by a hundred thousand. >> 33.6. >> you're trying to figure out how you missed. .

>> was it flat? >> you know how he missed? remember, economists were invested to make astrologists look good. okay? >> to be fair, the average error is plus or minus 2,000. we're all in the ballpark. >> leisure hospitality, a lot had higher. with your average miss. that's much higher now with this. >> would you just stop talking about my forecast. it's not the story. people want to know about the numbers, joe, not my errors. >> true confessions, i was wrong on this number. anastasi anastasia, home run. but on the smooth story, i'm right. >> larry, one thing i'm going to disagree with, this number does bring out the near term the three month average trend. so that's gone up a little bit. long-term, absolutely i agree with the slowing. >> there's no fed tightening of this number. do you agree with me? >> you're just going to make me

agree with you on everything. yes, i do. >> we need some common sense around this table. >> the futures are up 110 points or so. >> yeah. they care about your model. >> that's plus-50 on this number. >> some day it will be good news. >> the 10-year was 1.43. >> lord knows i want more. that's not the issue. i just -- >> but just one of your points was you said business was in a big slump. but they just -- in the month of may they did quite well. >> in the month of may. look. all i'm saying is the trend line is slipping. the business trend line is slipping. >> is rick gone? rick? >> no. i'm not gone. i'm here. >> too early? should they have done this next month? i think they're doing this too early. >> no, no. i heard they ordered the chef hats already, but they haven't arrived. so bam, maybe they'll cook it up

in a couple months. >> all right. >> i like listening to you folks. you guys are arguing about the plush interior to a vega economy. some months it's shiny. some months it's velour. but at the end of the day we're still in a vega. >> 280 is on the way to 400, isn't it? >> so, joe, bad numbers are not part of the conspiracy but good numbers are? is that your point? that if the number comes in bad, it's a real number. but the good number, it's a conspiracy. >> why would the people in charge bring a bad number? >> they don't. >> hang on. please, hang on. both bernstein and i worked in the government in the bowels of these -- joe, joe. there is no political fixing of these numbers. >> and with that, i need to go to break. >> they may make mistakes --

>> you remember when you were an anchor. >> i do. but there's no political -- >> you used to yell. coming up -- i'm going to try to do this. i'm a guest here and i'm going to try to do what the producer asked me to do. coming up, more reaction to the jobs report. former nucor ceo dan dimicco will join us. check out the futures.

today's job number painting a new picture of the u.s. economy. joining us from charlotte, north carolina, is dan dimicco. he's the former ceo of nucor and a trump campaign trade adviser. good morning, dan. i guess i ask the question how does the trump campaign respond to this? last month the trump campaign said this was a sign that 11,000 was a sign the obama economy was not producing jobs. now it's 287. how do you respond? >> well, listen. i'm not going to speak for the trump campaign at this point without looking at all the numbers. but personally what i can tell you is that these numbers are obviously a pretty good number. very strong. but i had the good fortune of having my ear piece in listening to the previous guests go back and forth. you know, the reality is we have

a slow growth economy. you know, we're still 1.7%, 1.8% gdp growth on average the first two quarters of this year no better. the average job situation for the last three months is 146,000. it's not good. just about enough to keep people in the workforce at a level number. we clearly need more than that. but the 280,000-plus number was good. >> we can all agree that it's not enough. there's a lot of dissatisfaction, people who have jobs are dissatisfied with wage gains. many have dropped out of the workforce. let's talk solutions here. when you think of the top one, two, or three things you could do to make it a better jobs market for average americans, what are they? >> well, they're the same things i told president obama back in the summer of 2009 when i had lunch with him along with three

other ceos. the number one thing that we need to do is focus on jobs, jobs and the economy. that really hasn't happened. people will argue that. but it hasn't been the focus. and infrastructure is a big important thing to do because you have a need there. it's not a make work project. >> he's been unable to get that to pass though. >> you asked me for three things. >> go ahead. >> you asked me for three things. trump is very strong on the infrastructure issue as well. but i will tell you what i was told by the president in 2009. we don't have the money for it. okay? and you haven't seen anything done in these eight years of any significance under $3 trillion shortfall we have in frastructure. just had a bridge collapse yesterday when a truck ran into it. and that's just the tip of the iceberg. but that's one of the things.

we need to get to the point where we stop the trade cheating going on in the world. get back to what we all want to see. true free trade. not trade mercantilism. we are in a trade war. president obama doesn't get it. hillary doesn't get it. she's even said that. but we've been in a war for two decades. >> dan -- >> enough's enough. >> dan, you used to come on -- >> enough's enough and -- >> dan, you came on a lot. i remember i used to think this guy's crazy, he's a ceo, he wants to do antifree trade stuff. and it's just dogma that the free trade was the way to go. i was like but he makes sense and we want to get to the same point. suddenly i saw you were coming on today and i went, wow, my viewpoint has even been changed i guess from a lot of the current we're in with trump about -- free trade is one thing, but fair trade is another. and i started thinking back. >> absolutely.

>> i thought, wow, maybe dan dimicco, at least i've come around at least more to your point of view than a lot of people have that were die hard free traders. >> look, dan -- >> i agree. >> dan, hang on. it's larry. the issue is enforce the laws. that's what mr. trump is saying. >> exactly. >> and when necessary, negotiate deals. i agree with that. i'm a free trader. mr. trump yesterday in the house meeting said there are a lot of benefits to free trade. but he enforced your point of view and his point of view and it's now mine. we need to enforce the laws. but dan, can i throw in one more to the mix? don't we need a -- >> first off, i agree with you. >> corporate tax reform, dan. >> you didn't give me a chance to give the third thing. i agree with you. the two things i mentioned and then all the things we all agree with the chamber and the round

table. global taxes. we've got to find a way to benefit the tax benefits our trading partners have. or taxing on our product when they come in. we've got to find a way to do that through a revamped tax system. we've got to find a way to deal with it. >> would you be for border adjustable? border adjustable. very important right now. >> what's that mean? >> border adjustable means as dan is saying our imports to china are taxed at a value tax and their imports to us are not. dan, can we equalize the tax treatment of goods and services flowing across borders? >> absolutely. we're looking for fairness in the trading system of the world. so border adjustable work. but don't forget, larry, the flip side is true. when you have a vat tax, manufacturers in that country get that rebated to them when

they export. right? so they have an additional cost advantage on this. >> dan, we're talking about -- >> we're going to have the same thing. hang on. let me finish this off quick. dan, i just want to be clear, dan, that you're saying these result in higher prices to consumers and you think that's okay for the economy? >> i think it is because what you're seeing is we have become addicted to super low prices which has resulted in the loss of millions and millions -- not only of loss of good paying jobs but the failure to create millions and millions of good paying jobs what ai'm saying is we're the fatted calf but at the end of the day we're going to get the butchered because trade is not fair our trading partners are living up to their commitments and they're not.

>> no, no, no, i was doing what a reporter should do what was pointing out the other side of the story. >> for you $15 minimum wage gains are good though. >> i think there's a tradeoff. >> all we're doing -- all we're doing is equalizing -- all we're doing is equalizing the treatment of trade flows that's all we're doing. >> can i summarize something for you please? >> yes. >> the last person to get it right was ronald reagan, he believed in fair trade laws, he believed in it eners forced it. >> steve stop clapping. >> he did it on terrorists, on summit conductors, he's the last guy to get it right. >> thank you, dan. >> we have to move on but thank you very much. terrific stuff this morning.

tough story overnight dallas police chief providing knew details on the suspect early this morning. >> we cornered one suspect and tried to negotiate for several hours. negotiations broke down. we had exchange of gunfire. we saw no other option but to use our bottom robot and place a device on its extension for it to detonate where the suspect was. >> okay, when we return, we're going to hear more from our jobs panel and what today's job number means. the last i saw on the dow was like 130 on this.

welcome back, to squawk box. check out the equity futures

this morning. 130 p points on the dow. that will start with 118,000. we closed at 17,095. >> you're asking the economist? >> if it doesn't get there, figure out a way of saying this. >> excuse me? >> when did you major in economy? >> more reaction to english. to the employment report from our jobs panel. larry, we're going to break.

you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. time for final thought from our jobs panel. >> you're going to be the panel for right now. >> i'm watching the ten year treasury, i don't think equity markets can move higher inleunl the expectations move higher. >> i am struck by the political agreement by both infrastructure

and trade. the tax thing won't work, favoring exports through the tax code won't work. second, we really need to figure out why there's so much variance this these payroll numbers month to month relative to the adp numbers. much more noisy. >> make sure you join us on monday. squawk on the street is next. good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. at the new york stock exchange. 287,000 jobs in june, this is the biggest beat expectation in years, along with the devastating assault on police in dallas overnight. the question whether the job market will be moved around