>> i'm going to be looking at inflation and wages from here on end. >> absolutely. probably the single most important day the points. thank you again this hour. have a great weekend, everybody and "fast money" begins right now. breaking news. the bulls are running all ore the world. in spain and on wall street. stocks just points away from record highs. tonight is about one thing and one thing only. your money and what to do with it now on the heels of this is torque day in the markets and what's confusing a lot of people. stocks are near all time highs. bonds are near all time highs and gold miners are rallying. what is going on with this market and where can you make money? >>. >> everything with the symbol in front f it is going higher. my big thing has been i think yields are going lore. the mistake i've made is i thought that meant the stock market almost by definition had to go lower. that's clearly been wrong.

couple of times i thought i had it right. not least of which this last time with this whole brexit vote. s&ps at all time high, but gbac to what are you paying for here? dan talks about gap earnings haves nongap. it's interesting we use nongap. the non accepted principles when we should be using gap, but gap earnings are hovering around 22, 23 times earnings. that to me is expensive. what's the point? stock market could still go higher because people are putting money into every different asset class. >> there's one stock market has gone higher. the nikkei is still down 20%. the dax is down so 10%. euro bank stocks are down. almost every one is is down considerably from their 52-yeek highs. as we've seen yields the world over go lower. you have been right other than the s&ps. >> i think there's two, well,

today, three things going on, but i wish we could see how much of bond buying is just the alternative of negative rates around the world and so people are coming here. having nothing to do with our stock market. so, we can't dif wrennuate. instead, looks like we're getting a simple of our economy slowing and that bodes poorly for the u.s. economy. then today, you get this contradictory piece of information to that theory. and so, that, i think the markets reacting to that. not to the bond thing. that piece of data is such an out liar that i want to dismiss it. the gigantic jobs report. it's only one piece of a mosaic. we've got to see more than just this one. >> some people could argue that easy money around the world has led to i don't want to say inflation, be but a bidding up of the bond market.

>> at this point in time for stocks to go higher. lower bond yields are a prerequisite. it's the hunt for yield. so, when bond yields go lower, stocks are going higher and should at this point. that doesn't mean it's right. when this reverses, it's going to rerers badly. i've said that for a long time, but for now, people are still bidding up those stocks here in the u.s., but to dan's play, there's multiple asset classes that have fallen. if you look at the s&p 500, it's up, but everything else is down. >> one of the things that scares me now is back i think it was august last august, i think it was august 11th, 2015, one of the first times you saw a deval from the chinese currency. the stock market took a tumble. now, bk could probably speak to this. you've seen chinese devalues that have fallen under the radar screen, but the chinese currency is being devaled. i think you could walk in one morning and you see chinese

devalue their currency anywhere from 5 to 8%. >> they have to. it's the only way that get out of the the kind of quagmire they're in. they will continue to do it. i thought they should do an immediate one-time big deval. that would have been the trade. looks like they've tried to take the path of let's go slowly. now, we have to watch what the japanese are going to do because the japanese auto mareks are just getting killed by this strong yen, so we are still in this period of heightened uncertainty with one small little area of assets going up. >> is the chinese deval going to take the markets lower? >> my view, because the market hasn't react today this small ratcheting up, it would have to be one big time or we get to such a point that everybody goes, what happened. that could also happen. gl close to record highs. say we're pretty much at record highs. what are you doing? >> not a whole lot.

i'm not really selling or buying, which i cannot believe that brexit is totally, what brexit. tiny little blip of nothing. i go back to the point, it's individual names is what i focus on. not on the market at large because i don't know how to do that. just try to hedge what i have. i didn't buy anything new yesterday. >> but you're not selling anything. that is right. i am not. >> i think it's important to remember we're going earnings season. in april when we were in the height of s&p earnings season, there was a lot of stock stock. microsoft had a 10% move. these were lower. i think you're going to get a good sense in the next couple of weeks of how investors are positioned in u.s. stocks for upsidage. one thing to be defensive. we know the sectors have acted well, but to me, i think it's going to take a situation where we're going to need to see upside q3 guidance or second half guidance from large cap multinationals to continue to go

higher. i think most have a mulligan because of brexit and the quarter ended. i tried taking a shot on selling consumer staples. that didn't work out so well. selling u.s. tell cos. if the market is going to broaden, you'll need to see these other performers. and staples and utilities, so to me, i think you want to avoid that trade now, too. >> defense stocks. lockheed martin all time high. thinks that space to me regardless of what you think about valuation. i think that's very attractive and you led the show with this, so back to it. tlt for a number of different reasons. >> two week highs. >> and had every opportunity. obliterated today. didn't do it. stock markets going higher. that's fine. but i think tlt goes higher. the gold miners go higher.

>> what can you trade here? >> i would stick with what's in a bull market. which is tlt. gold, silver. i would buy uup. the dollar. another single stock that i bought for the yield and getting off volatility is cme. which is one that i got from guy. actually on this show, he mentioned it and i said that looks like a great idea. >> that guy, he's smart. >> sorry. >> one point about the s&p 500. we look at that chart all the time. it is the best performing largest equity index in the world and to me at this point, half a percent from an all time high, a breakout could be the trade. let's be frank. it has not been my view. here's what has to happen. it needs to get above it and close then we need to see the breath really take hold and establish a new range above it. if you do that for a period of time and we shrug off international news, you know what to trade. then i'm just saying you could be shooting against -- >> i think that's the point. it has to break out and ta there.

if you look at from may 2007 to october 2007, the s&p rallied 15%. and then just fell off a cliff. so, you know, we just had a 15% rally. i don't know if it's the same type of thing, but my point is, it has to break out and stay for a while. >> let's turn to a very controversial call on this desk. probably remember this. not doing this to beat up on bk, but on january 7th when the markets were in turmoil, bk said this. >> what do investors at home do? stay in cash. nothing wrong being in cash. if you had ridden this market up from 2008, 2009 in your ira and 401(k). >> as long as you're not cash. >> cash tomorrow. >> and that night on cnbc special, bk doubled down oon that call. take a listen. >> today, tonight on the show on "fast money," they asked me what should people do and my suggestion was go to cash. nothing wrong with being in cash. when i look at the world, i look at a global pmis falling.

i look at global trade falling. i look at a u.s. yield current that is flat to possibly getting flatter. the flattest it's been since before 2008 problems. so, to me, i'm looking at a global slowdown if not a global recession. >> since the call, since that call, the s&p is up about 9.5%. all though all those things you had outlined came tro fruition. >> which is kind of frustrating. couple of different things. one, what i was specifically talking about is the advice that i gave to my parents, which is they're retired. can they, do they want to eke out the next 5 to 10% up in the stock market. my answer's no. nothing wrong with going to cash. quadruple since 2009. nothing wrong with that. people picked up on go to cash and it game this kind of thing. which is fine. people do it here, hear what they want to hear, read what they want to read. it's deeper than that. so i wrote subsequently, because

there was such a big to do about this, i wrote a 30-page research report on tickerdistrict.com. it explains my view about the debt supercycle ending and what it means for asset prices. since then, this is a trading show. got to come up with trading ideas. i've expressed my bearish view by being long u.s. dollar, long tlt and long gold and sill ser. so, if i look at that, u.s. dollar down 2.5%, not so good. tlt up 18%. gold, up, i wrote it down. 26%. silver, up 44%. versus up 9% from the s&p. so i'm still bearish. still expressing my views in those ways. if you want to buy the market, have them all. >> if you're sitting home and you're close to retirement age right now. and you're sitting close to record highs in the s&p 500, do you now say go to cash? >> so, let me be clear so i don't create a -- i can't know

what everybody's particular personal situation is but if bk were close to retirement and he's not yet. maybe you guys -- forced retirement. whole different story. but the point is, if he were close to retirement and had ridden the market up, he would be taking profits now and say you know what, i'm happy with my cash spot. >> not that he needs me to do this. on january 7th, the s&p that day close d around 19.45, 19.50, gie or take. my february 11th, the s&p was trading down to 1810. looked tlik world was coming to an end. i recall around that day or between one day or or before, bk, you asked him and he talked about covering the short positions that he had on. not trying to say he was gaming, he's not. but you have to be 100% honest with this thing because it did happen. i've been as bearish as anybody on this. maybe i wasn't vociferous in my

comments, but with exception of karen have similar position in terms of what we think is going on in the world. >> i think it's really important to mention he had one view on an asset class most people are exposed to and after a large run, but i read him every day, listen to you. i hear the ideas you come up on other risk assets. there's tons of other stuff to do it and his view on stocks based on other risk asset classes was correct. i'm wrong all the time, so i'm with you there. >> and so, just to people are clear, that's my game. i'm a macro manager. i look at multiple asset classes an houd one may affect the other. i'm going to git wrong sometimes, so you get two or three right, get one wrong. that's you know, that's what happens. i will say just for everybody, i got the s&p wrong. up from where i said we go to cash, so i got it wrong, but the others, i think you stick with it. >> stocks as we mentioned near all time highs, but does main

street care? we did a survey here in times square. our results could mean higher stock prices. we'll explain. plus, if you missed the rally, there's one big stock one trader says -- we'll tell you the maim and later, people are lighting up for tonight's $540 million megamillions and guess what? we know the numbers. >> come on. >> just see federal government you were paying attention. we don't have the winning numbers, but we have more stocks that could hit the jackpot for your portfolio. is woman owns th, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets. not just covage,surance craftedcraftsmanship. m. not just insured. chubb insured.

welcome back. amazon picking up our top trades. surging to a new all time high. the stock is up a whopping 73% in the past year. the company is of course gearing up for its annual prime day on tuesday where it will host 24 hours of special deals for prime members. >> i think it's important to remember that last year in their q3 when they had their first ever prime day, they had probably $400 million worth of sales. in that quarter, they did $25 billion in sales. this is a bit of a gimmicky thing. i know this was something, what

was the thing in november, i think they thought get in on the game. just a different retail market. this was proven to be a success. people weren't that excited, but it was the start of them crushing bricks and mortar retail. another screw to just show you how much leverage they have if they want to lose money selling things online. >> not just the sales. it's prime membership sign ups. the amazon story, their results are out july 21st. ak amazon story is aws and whether or not those margins are going to be great and a lot of people are expecting that. >> it's about how the stock goes into those earnings. we have a tremendous run off of 680, which is likely perhaps into the earnings, knowing that prime day was a success last year, so, if you're buying amazon hee, i would be worried about it going into earnings. you could have great earnings

and get a sale the news event. to me, the risk reward is not there by amazon. >> same time, this is on a day where we saw retail show signs of some life. we saw gap post bert than ek pegted same store sales. >> retail valuations are in a different stratosphere. that's what i'm perplexed why a rule of bounty -- not explain that. i can't be long it and i can't short it either. so amazon just not for me. i just love it as a customer. >> so, you go to the amazon.com website and you can buy just about anything. >> have an app on your phone, one click. by now and it magically shows up. >> have to get the disc from alf to get on. >> that's the problem.

>> what about -- can i ask you something on aws? >> big portion of their revenues. >> 10% of sales. growing bigger pocket. you saw a decline in margins. >> by the way, i knew you were chopping at the bit. i saw the look in your eyes. so saw it. perked up. >> still ahead, financials are soaring today. we'll tell you which names traders are betting on heading into a qe for earnings. i'm melissa lee. first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on fast. ♪ >> yeah. that's how a lot of investors feel. after stocks made record highs today, but if you missed the rally, we've got a way to catch up. plus -- >> now, here's tonight's number. zwl. >> guess what. we happen to have them. actually, we don't, but we have four stocks that could hit the

swrak pot for your portfolio and we'll tell you what they are when "fast money" returns.

welcome back. i cannot believe you did it again. guy is missing. wait, i think i see him outside again. guy, what are you doing out there? >> hey, mel, it's me. i came out to times square. i'm going to ask folks if they know the stock market is trading within a whisper of an all time high. let's find some people. ♪ if i told you u the stock market was trading at an all time high today, would this surprise you? >> yeah, it would. >> not totally surprised.

>> i'd say that's ridiculous. >> i mean, sure. >> really surprised about that. >> extremely happy because i did cash in some stock. gl so, where is the dow jones industrial averaging trading? >> it's everywhere. 16th street. >> 16th street. >> 16th avenue. >> 16th avenue is correct. >> 1400. >> you got me. >> i'm not too sure. >> i don't know the sound of it. >> got to be over 18,000. >> yes. as a matter of fact. >> all right. not many people know about it. i don't know if that's surprising or that maybe is that a good sign? maybe a contrarian indicator? >> part of it is that we know a lot of people left stocks. in jeb, they've gotten burned twice now with 50% declines in the s&p 500 in the last 15 years thand scares them and maybe they haven't gotten back in.

but to bk's point, there's a bull market. >> it's interesting because we sit here every night and are so focused on what's going on. brexit, it's going to be a big deal. but i think what guy's point prove and just conversations i've had over the last couple of week, people don't know or care about brexit and you know, so, i think people are just ignored it, frankly. >> yeah. i would think many people don't even look at where their portfolio is until a quarterly statement comes. >> and if it's bad, they don't look either. then they really don't look. so, maybe that's what's happening. maybe it's just that as dan said, people are too, that retail investor might be just out of the game. >> warm outside. see how fast, like lickety-sp t lickety-split. cool under pressure. >> cucumber. >> it's amazing you find all those people within the framework of that quick little hip hit. >> you were efficient. >> there were some smart people.

a woman from connecticut, they knew the dow was trading 18,100. >> we spent so much time for years up until like six months august talking about apple. disney, down 20%. a lot of people wh get invested in stocks reich that they love and get burned like that, if i can't trust apple to be at a high when the s&p is, what am i doing here? that's the sort of thing. >> what you say. >> here's the thing. >> what you're getting to is the cash on the sideline. cash on the sideline. it would seem to me if nobody knows or cares, maybe that cash isn't coming back in or this is kind of the last gas and or the mom and pop stage. >> all right. in case you've been hiding under a rock, the latest megamillion jackpot has reached 540 million buck, making it the seventh largest in u.s. history. tonight's drawing is the 35th since megamillions had a winner. the longest stretch in the

game's history and in honor of the drawing tonight, we are giving you four jackpot stock picks. that could mean lots of green for your poert folio. >> for me, it's tesla. i look at this as a lottery ticket. what's going on in the u.s. is why are we laughing at the picture? >> during the drawing. >> so, with tesla, the story is there is a decarbonization of the electric grid in the u.s. going on. tesla is is at the center of it. it's a lottery ticket if they can pull it off. >> karen. >> mine is google because you've got that extraordinary business of google. and then you've got the google jackpot business. they're doing it for you. they're in these things like calico, google fiber. autonomous driving and others we don't know about. and you're paying negative for it. >> right. >> so, that's my jackpot play. >> dan. >> mine is twitter here and this is a lot toe. $10 million value here. i think there's a lot of stuff

that could go right for these guys on the balance of the year and really the only thing here is a takeout. >> general mills, they make lucky charms. magically delicious. yes. >> all right. that does it for us. more "fast money" next week. options action starts right after this.

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