>> you're going to talk about it on "fast money." >> absolutely. "closing bell" starts right now. don't move. welcome to "closing bell." >> i'm bill griffeth. the s&p on track as you heard to close as a record high today. we are in report territory right now. we've never been this high at this point. and you knee we were going to ask this question -- is this rally a buy or a sell right now? >> that is the question. >> some money managers and strategists, we'll getting their take throughout the next couple hours. >> and financials, interesting sector, normally a market leader, but they have been dragging so far this year. we're going to talk to former fdic chair sheila bair about the

impact she thinks brexit will have, and will there be more -- >> they're talking about a 150 billion euro bailout fund over there. >> potentially. >> the man known for playing walter white, yes, it's true. bride yo bryan cranston will join us to talk about "the infiltrator." a lot of excitement having him around here today. we have full team coverage. bob pisani is watching today's historic moves. bertha coombs is at the nasdaq, where the index has been flirting with 5,000 today, and mike santelli looks at whether the earnings may be coming to an end. bob, start us off. >> we have picked report highs without the help from some of the biggest players right now.

what's really maried is the consumer staples stock. but that's what's really moved things forward. consumer discretionary has also helped a bit. they've all lagged notably here, without some of the support, for example, financials, energy is a much smaller group than it was just a year and a half ago. a lot has to go right in the second half of the year in the earnings situation. the dollar has to behave, interest rates have to behave, and oil has to sort of stay where it is or go up a bit. i do want to point out we are well shy of historic highs in other important areas, like the transports, russ the 200, and

s&p 500400. >> we've flirting with it all day, on pace for the eighth straight day of gains. it's rallied by 6% for near breakeven for the year. just can't quite get there. b biotechs have seen the biggest bounce post-brexit. but amazon at an all-time high today above 700 and $50 a share is really one of the big drivers. analyst price target for that stock is $817 a share. if you look at the stock and amazon, you can see how this has been the being driver at a fresh all-time high, really helping to move the nasdaq higher. it's among the consumer names that have led the nasdaq back to the year's highs. take a look at some of these others. a lot are tech consumer names like electronics arts, ultimata, a consumer name as far as

makeup, up 36%, comcast our parent company shares at historic highs as well. month the tech stocks. nvidia hitting a historic high for the third straight day but technology big caps have not been the movers. >> mike san tolli is with you tales a look at whether corporate earnings could spur moveme movement. >> look, the earnings recession is probably going to have continued through the second quarter. the consensus right now says about a 5.6% decline. that's the season just now beginning to be reported. however, there's the typical margin of upside beats. companies have been running about three to four percentage points better. so that gets you in the range,

probably a small decline, but next conveyor about a flat year over year. then in the back fourth quarter of the year, that's when we're supposed to be the big resurgence. it seems like the end is in sight. preannouncements have been less negative than usual. it's been the best quarter so far since 2011. where does that leave the stock market in it's the bond proxy type stocks, the yield sectors that have kept the market sideways. the question now is what does it mean for value indications? we were at 17 times earnings at may of -- we're at about 16 1/2 now, however, back then as we now know, we were on the verges of five straight quarters of down earnings. maybe the valuation picture looks okay, but another sector rotation, do we rotate out of the those bond-like stocks, and then leave the indexes roughly where they are? >> it also strike mess as last night we are talking about

report highs. it was on the back of just a few big market cap companies? it's about very stable yield sectors, and other sort of consumer cyclicals that seem like they have a shot. so very different, you're right, sara. >> if nothing else after declining -- at some point the comps are going to have to look good, right? >> really what we have going is the passage of time. of course that industrial recession hit in the interim, too. >> all right. mike, thanks very much. we'll see you next hour getting to our "closing bell" exchange

for this point. btig's holly liss is with us from chaul. kathy jones is atport 9, and sitting next to her is princeton securities ben well is. ben, impressive rally, do you want to be in this? our what are you doing here? >> it's very impressive rally. as a trader, i probably want to fade it. as an investor, i want to keep looking for the places that are undiscovered. i believe they're seeing a rotation where tlt was mentioned earlier in the day. tlt selling off, there's an indication of cash being raised to find other places in this market. i think the dollar continues to ride higher, and as we continue to hear talks of fundamentals and earnings, i believe it's wise for any investor to add the multiple of a central bank intervention. so when you had central banks manipulating markets the way they are, you have to use that as a caveat against any measurements that you want to

use as a fundamental measure. that tells me the markets will continue to go higher, because based on that multiplier, we are nowhere near a top. >> kathy, he does bring up a pop. that is the bank of england is set to ease policy a bit later this week, cutting interest rates. do you see this rally in any way built on the back of central banks getting involved again in another period of global weakness, or at least fear of of it after brexit? >> that's certainly the expectations in the market. i'm not sure whether the bank of england cuts rates or does more monetary easing, but we're seeing mo fiscal stimulus out of japan, and of course the central banks have bought up, you know, just a huge quantities of government bonds, and that continue toss push people into other investments to try to find yield. so i think much of what's going on in the martz is attributable to what the central bank are

doing. >> holly, of course the earnings parade starts tonight with alcoa. i don't want to say will neff it mar, of course it matters, but will it have the impact if we weren't so distracted by what's going on overseas? >> you could say there's a lot of drags, whether it's overseas with global uncertainly. you can say there's uncertainly whether stocks are going higher or not, and also uncertainty whether the fed will besh we're not seeing that right now, but the fact that the fed members continue to say we're not going to negative rates, you've seen ten-year yields make all-time lows last week, and i don't think that will be over yet. i could make the case that ten-year yields in the u.s. go to about 118. that might see shocking, but we were all surprised when they bross 2%, 2.5%. as long as you have this global

uncertainty, as long as ifsh nonfarm payroll is stronger, but on a trent it's that good, and the ppi/cpi not -- so as long as those trends are still in place, as long as they're searching for yield, you'll continue to see the rates move lower. >> i wonder what would happen to the stock market if we did see yields move lower. some folks say it's a sign that things aren't that great. it's a sign that maybe recession is coming. >> i think once againling it was brow to bond to continue to yield in -- we've never seen this before. i will tell the people out there watching today. for the last few days, this market has been moving on a theory of helicopter money fro big ben bernanke.

there's rumors he's having conversations with bank of jaap and developing a system for helicopter money. it was a belief that japan was going to have a major intervention. tomorrow you have four fed heads talking. this market is being driven, and it's exactly what the central bankers want to have happen. they want the money to be spent. for some people fear of risk, they fear maybe it's inflating or bubbling some of these markets, but no one has asked me if they should be selling the treasury holdings. i would be doing that, but you know janet yellen hasn't called me. keep an eye on the central banks, that is the motivation, it's not really in the headlines, because it's a rumor between what ben bernanke is talking about --

>> it's never a good idea to have a business with an unlisted number, i keep telling you that. kathy, interest rates you don't believe they're fundamentally based. however, you do think we are going to see this for the foreseeable future. how much lower do you think we go? >> it's going to depend on the numbers, obviously. it wouldn't surprise me to see that 110% areas if the economic numbers don't materialize in the way people expecting if they don't get the rebound in the second half that people expect. and it's simply the spread. if you have a choice of paying the government in germany for the privilege of buying their bonds or buying a u.s. bond and get 1%, it's not much of a choice for most people. as long as that's happening outside of the united states, you will continue to see yields go down. we just want to caution people

be careful. once this things starts to turn around or even get a correction, it could move pretty fast. we also learned who the presumed next prime minister of the uk will be today, teresa may, no other challengers in the race. does that lift some uncertainty around the politics as britain prepare to leave the eu, something that just two weeks ago was considered quite damaging for the global financial system and economy? >> well, nose who you would have as the next prime minister clearly reduced one of those uncertainties, but nobody knows how she's going to rule. so while it elimination, it doesn't especially in the eu. the low yields are clearly telling us something. that would be completely separate from what we're seeing in the u.s. in the stock market

making all-time highs. as far as recession goes, if you look at the three-month ten-year yield, odds given the current are telling you only about 12% odds you'll have a recession within the next 12 months, but that's not to say that curve will not flanning even further and something more damaging happens down the road. a lot will depend on our domestic numbers. what a crazy -- >> climbing the wall of worry. >> thank you, folks. good to see you all. appreciate your thoughts. we have 46 minutes left in the twrading session here, the s&p is in record territory. the dow has about 50 points to go, so we'll see. anything is possible this last hour. >> the level to wash is 213082.

sheila bair weighs in on banks which have been underperforming. and jeremy siegel will tell us if he still sees the dow hitting 20,000. southern company's ceo gives us his takes on the best purchasing group and the ceo of alcoa right after the earnings are released. up next, it's hollywood meets wall street. when we come back, bryan cranston is here at the new york stock exchange. >> doing the wall. we'll talk about "the infiltrator" which hits theaters nationwide this week.

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stocks are rallying in this final hour of trade. firmly putting it in record territory, on track for a record close. first time we'll see that since mac in may. nasdaq 5000, hitting that level. it's the most -- there's an s&p heat map for you. technology in the lead as well

as industrials, the two lagging groups are utilities and telecom. interesting. they have been the best performers this year, that may toss fat different yields. this is a broad rally built on cyclical stocks. >> look how excited bryan cran cranston. we have nintendo surging in tokyo, trade on the viral popularity of their pokemon go game. it became available in the u.s. last week. it uses real-world location in the hunt for pokemon. everybody is playing it right now. twitter lower after two firms downgraded the stock. suntrust citing continuing struggle with user growth, engagement as well as monetization. he's probably the best known meth kingpin walter white.

he's in "the infiltrator" as a federal agent going undergrown. >> and he's infiltrated the new york stock exchange it says here. welcome to the new york stock exchange. have you ever been here? >> i have been here once before. on the day i visited, there was a surge as well. so i'm feeling very bullish. >> what are you doing tomorrow? >> i should come back. i'm look the cooler in the reverse. >> are you in the market? >> i'm a typical actor who i can portray somebody that knows something about finances better than knowing about finances. >> you obviously did a great turn on lbj. i happened to see you. >> good. you know who you should play a wall street type? warren buffett. >> i love warren buffett, a

gentleman, a kind man. he did a little sketch with us on the "breaking bad" set one time, and we get invited to go out to omaha every once in a while to see his extravaganza out there. he's a country old guy, and i think that would be fun. >> it was our own jim cramer who called walter white the steve jobs of meth, but now walter white is meeting pablo escobar. >> yes, this is called "the infiltrator." it's the real story about a man named bob mazer, who is a customs agent. he infiltrated the medellin cartel. in one fell swoop, had 85 arrests, and nearly all that in convictions. even the bigger story, as far as that pertains to finances, it brought down the seventh largest

barrack in the world at the time, bcci, if you remember that, back in the '80s. >>er remember that. wow. >> it's really a fascinating story. >> and portrayed as sort of a financial genius in the role, right? >> bob mazer trained as an accountant, so he had numbers background, but he game a full-fledged police officer with customs agent and infiltrated. he did what i do, you take on the role, another character, though if he makes a mistake, he's in serious trouble. >> you can do a retake. >> yeah. >> would you go back to serious television form the impact that "breaking bad" had, we're in the middle of a golden age of tv, and i think "breaking bad ushered that in, because you proved a channel like amc could do their own production and make among, and now everybody is doing that and we're binge

watching things. would you go back? >> i would, depending on the story. if you look at the sequences of "breaking bad," i think it would have made a terrible movie. you would have had to truncate too many stories. so there are stories that need that long play, but if you can tell a good story in an hour and a half to two hours, then it should be a movie, like "the infiltrator" it's a really good movie. >> i wonder how netflix has totally changed the game for television. do you think about that now when you're looking at roles? >> amazon is a big player, and i have a couple productions within the amazon family right now. and enjoying that collaboration. they seem to get it that they're supporting the creative people.

there's always been strange bedfellows between the creative minds and the financial institutions that support that. we need to be mutually respectful. >> there was a sometime where there was a stigma that tv actors wouldn't go, and then you wouldn't go to cable, and wouldn't go to streaming. it's 5u8 gone, because the quality is so good. >> i think you're spot on. actors are injure grave at that timing towards really well-written stories, if you find it on television, that's fine. if you find it in feature films or on stage, well, then that's where they'll go. >> and amazon is trading at a record high. >> i don't want to say i have all the credit on that. >> look at you. >> but it's pretty clear i had a significant amount. >> is it true you just joined instagram today? >> it's true. >> what took so long?

>> i'm 60. >> i'll be a on snapchat right away, girlfriend, are you going to following me? >> biggest money mistake that bryan cranston ever made. >> uh, i went into a business when i was a struggling actor. i bought a trampoline game, yeah, and then the insurance companies said they're breaking ankles, and i'm like, oh. >> you learned right away. cut your losses. >> bounced me right out into the poorhouse. the movie is "the infiltr e infiltrator." >> you're going to have to take a lot of pictures. >> that's all right. joining us, the movie opens wednesday nationwide july 13th. >> with a little more than 30 minutes to go, to show you where we are in this market, which is about to close as a record high, if we can keep these levels, s&p 500 up half a%.

the dow is up more. the nasdaq is even higher, we're just hovering below it. we have a lineup of other heavy hitters. sheila bair is talking about challenges facing our nation's banks, especially in europe. also ahead wharton professor jeremy siegel talks about 20,000, and thomas fanning is wringing the closing bell, and klaus kleinfeld discusses his company's earnings with us exclusively even before talking with analysts. don't go anywhere. sara and i will be right back after this.

andrea sikon. medical doctor from cleveland clinic, tson, let's revivihe electronic mical record of the next patient.. no problem. it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait. it'sat wasuick.uge file. part of our resrch, then cross referenced with thounds of medical journals. and i get the befit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best eaents. i stay focused 24/7 and never ee you sound like a l of medical students i know.

coming off the highs here, the s&p is still unten, in record territory. the nasdaq was at 5,000 a few minutes ago, it's pulled back just a bit. bryan cranston is still taking pictures. that is going to take a while. meanwhile, elon musk tweeting yesterday he is working on a second installment of a top secret, his words, tesla masterplan. he says he's hoping to publish it later this week. tesla rising on the heels of that tweet. recently tesla has had to deal with the fatal crash of one its cars while in autopilot mode and about a proposed merging with a

solar panel provider. meanwhile, s&p is hitting record highs, and the remarkable recovery. the financials, while getting a little bump today, have been underperforming, though, the broader market overall. >> joining us now for more on the brexit impact on financials, sheila bair, president of washington college and former chairman of the federal deposit insurance corporation, better known as fdic. welcome back. >> happy to be here. >> what do you think the impact will be specifically on the u.s. banks. it affects them in a number of ways, doesn't it? >> it does. i think the down sides, there's a few positives, but mostly down sides. the biggest thing i think is a drammic likelihood that the fed will raise interest rates again that's why they're

underperforming right now. it can increase doing business across the pond. we don't know what kind of arrangements the uk might eventually work out, but it's likely that u.s. bankling will no longer be able to use london as the launching pad. they'll have to create subsidiaries there. that will create d. and finally i assume credit losses will be going up. i think there's a fairly significant impact. the policy committee, came out with a report recently that one of the things that highlighted high levels of household leverage already, if there's a significant downturn in britain, i think you'll see increased credit losses. >> and here we constituent with the ten-year as 140 or thereabouts, maybe probably headed lower. we had one economist tell us she wouldn't be surprised -- how much more pain can our banks put up with? just last week that a bank and

my wife do business with added a $10 fee. no increase in service. this is what banks are having to do to stay alive. you are. there's going to be looking to more trading revenues that they can get them, more fee-based generated revenues. i don't know if that's a positive thing or not, but that's what they'll have to do to maintain profitability. so it is what it is. i think longer term we'll get into a more normalized interest rate environment. i think it provides for more stable economy, and more robust if you can have more reasonable spreads on user lending, but in the short term, there will still be a lot of pain. >> one of the big concerns with the global banks system is what this means for european banks, especially italians banks nothing new, piles of bad debt and low profitable, but this shock seems to be a wake upcall. the chief economist said the eu

should set aside 150 billion euros to pump into european banks. dodds that happening? and how much of a need for that is there? >> i think we shouldn't panic. it's still not clear. i was disappointing that in the uk they're lookening capital -- which is a small net on positive. i think credit loss is going to go up, so you want to maintain that. in italy they're trying to get around the antibailout restrictions. so to the extent that this, you know, europe really never recapitalized their banks, so now i think they're in a difficult situation. that's going to create unfortunately a lot of prell erbil to weaken further reforms that have been put in place. we'll see what happens, but it's a little distressing they didn't move as quickly as they should have, and now they're in a

difficult spot. >> now, japan with abe's victory in the parliamentary election, the japanese stock market was up 4%, the yen finally came down on the expectation there will be more stimulus coming from that government. we're caught in a cycle here, are not we of expectations and euphoria as a result? >> yes, to the extend i think the expectations is on the monetary policy size, i don't know why -- this hasn't been working. and you can't -- >> are we likely to get fiscal stimulus anywhere? >> well, it would be nice to have something like that in the u.s. smart well-designed infrastructure spending programs. the fed has given the government to issue cheap debt, and i don't think it's been used very well. so whether we'll have a new regime -- well, we will have a new presidency, we don't know who that would be yet. maybe we'll see some sensible

physical stimulus, but i think it's ill-adviced to continue wee eyeing on -- >> i just wanted to ask you about this. can tame in today. the office of the comptroller, one of the numerous banking regulato regulators. do you see that as a concern? >> well, that's been crowded space for a while, and certainly subprime has grown. credit standards have been stretched so i think they have sounded the alarm on subprime at least, and i think they're right to do it again. i think there was a piling in to whatever wasn't a mortgage, so you saw a lot of non-real estate sectors like auto financing take off, varied credit space, so i think they're right, banks in that business should be very careful. >> it's true, we have heard those warnings before.

sheila, thank you. time for an cnbc news update. here's what's happening at this hour, defense -- ash carter making a surprise visit to iraq, where he announced the u.s. will send 560 additional troops to the country to help in its fight against the islamic state. >> we agreed for the united states to bolster the iraqi efforts to isolate and pressure mosul by deploys 560 additional troops in support of the isf. hillary clinton will speaking to the naacp national convention in cincinnati as the republican national convention is getting under way in cleveland. clinton will speak on july 18th, the first day of the gop convention. a representative says aerosmith guitarist joe per are is resting and doing well after becoming ill at a new york show sunday night. perry is seen sitting down on front of the drum platform, then standing up before stumbling off

the stage. he was taken to a local hospital by ambulance. it's going to be a long year. intersubstantial time keepers have added one leap second to december 31st. at least once every tense year scientists add an extra second to bridge the gap between earth time and the atomic clock. that's the news update at this hour. it's been such a great year anywhere, why not add another second. >> yeah. 43 seconds in the trading session here. the dow is up 98 points. the question will be can we close at an all-tyke high of the the number was 2130, said a year ago in may. we're well above that right now. >> and you're going to talk to a trader. >> yes, i will. his take on the s&p's run at a record close and how long this rally can last. >> and after the bell, claw

klein feld speaking exclusively with us immediately after the company releases its earnings report. don't go anywhere. you're watching "closing bell." he ametrade, they wk . wow, that was ndom. random? no. it's all about unrstanding patter. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped evy third tuesda jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart us over 30customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predt that. td ameritrade.

as stocks head for a record close, let's show you what's happening with the u.s. bond market. less demand for the safe haven u.s. government bonds, which means that we are seeing yields actually go higher. the ten-year treasury node yield this after it hit a record lo last wednesday. responding to that better jobs record on friday, also responding to the news overnight, bill, that japan was preparing fresh stimulus. >> not a very strong three-year note auction today. joining me with 20 minutes left in the trading session, matt chesslock. i know what you're thinking, all-time highs to the s&p. >> i don't know why it wouldn't chloric. >> enough to bring you into the market? >> no. that's the question, would you be funneling new money into in what, $7 trillion?

it needs a home. right now u.s. equities are it. it's as simple as that. no yield anywhere, so what are you going to do? the two sectors that performed the best are underperforming. we need something to break us out. the financials especially later in the week. >> big footprint in europe. and i know some of the older guys that i walked to are somewhat positive. >> thanks very much. that tie, put that on ebay? >> yeah, maybe. >> good to know. nearly up, and on track for a record close. financials and technology are in the lead. just learning what that 5,000

level is, utility stocks have been surging, but how long can the rally last? up next southern company's ceo thomas fanning. some people are approaches investing with a flip of the coin strategy. we're going to talk to an author of the new book. the advice on how to get better? ♪ [announcer] is it a force of nare? or a salvent? thsummer of audi sales event is here. get up to a $5,000 bonus on select audi mode

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so i know how important that is. southern company is buying a 50% state in kinder morgan for 1.47 billion. the stock is trading lower as we head into the market close. the deal was announced last night. >> we're standing here in the post in traffic. tom fanning, good to see you. >> close to your post. >> it's not your first investment in so-called upstream. you can't make money these days on price. there's too much natural gas, so

you have to go -- >> i don't like taking risk in the commodity. it's absolutely clear to me that the old workhorses of the electric generation in america, nuclear and coal, will likely be challenged in the future. we know that renewables are coming up, and we're one of the biggest investors, particular in solar. what will fill the gap, i think for the next 35 to 40 years will be natural gas particularly natural gas infrastructure. >> i'm cure jug about coal. you mentioned coal. do you see any changes in the indeed administration? i know donald trump has mentioned revitalizing the coal industry, but i think that was on the ease of the west virginia primary. is that realistic? >> here's the thing, coal is a worldwide issue, in my view. whether the united states continues or not, on its track to a low or no carbon future. that will determine the future of coal here. the technology we're deploying in mississippi actually captured

the carbon out of the coal and has from a cashin food, a foot less than natural gas. perhaps by wednesday we will produce of first syn-gas out of that coal. we think it has great promise for coal combustion around the world in a responsible way. interest who is playing for this fan? >> that's garbage. that's old news. on -- it's all been evaluated. internal investigations, external investigations, external people beyond southern company. there's no credibility to that. in fact, the plant will cost mississippi's ratepayers exactly, we think what they thought it would cost when the plant was ordered by the

mississippi public service commission. that's just old news being rehashed. >> i know you have a long statement on it. is and at the whoa no -- >> you know, i don't think snap back. southern company trades on a value of risk and return. in can't fa wrefd along the lowest about theas in the s&p 500. if we can produce a yield, our yield right now is probably too high, but it's about 4.3%. if we can produce growth in earnings per share, i can give you a total shareholders return of 8% to 10% as one of lowest risk profiles. >> that's probably ever, 21 sometimes earnings? >> it actually is, but even with a pullback in interest rates, and frankly it's arguable when

that will happen. look, i think we're positioned, especially given the demographics of america, very well for a long time to come. >> i know you're ringing the closing bell. >> how about that this it will be fun. we'll let you go. art cashin was pointing out to me the markets on close orders has paired off. there's no imbalance to either the buy or the sell sigh, with the dow up 88 points, though off the highs. when we come back market highs on this side of the pacific have our attention, but anthony chen at chase says you should by watching the developments from china and japan. we'll talk to him next when we come right back on "closing bell." ♪ in new york state,

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about seven minutes left here, really coming off the highs, the dow up 84 points, but it's the subpoena we're focusing on. it would look like an all-time closing high, though we still have seven minute toss go. the all-time high from last year in may was 2130.82. right northeasterly we're at it 137-88. anthony chen joins us, and it

rally started? japan last night? >> it did. shinto abe with his landslide, even the junior party did very well. what does that tell you? that tells you he's going to have a man dade, but certainly boosting that fiscal package in and out thought to be as much as 10 trillion yen. that's pretty impressive for japan. >> so from an economist's standpoint, if that's the reason, how do we know it will continue? >> it will continue, because into the force, it really starts stimulating that part of the world. of course right next door you have china, which are also talking about more stimulation. you heard from the trade minister in china over the weekend suggesting that global economies and weakness have to stimulate. in this world where all these economies that we were worried about are now going to switch to more stimulus, fiscal policy is certainly going to boost financial markets all over the world. >> earnings start tonight,

alcoa, over the next couple weeks, what are you looking for? is the earnings session going to turn? >> i think we're going to start to see an inflection point. the things what we're holding us back, whether it's the earnings, yes, the dollar that is strengthened a bit, but it's still down 2.1% on a year to date basis. >> anthony, always good to see you. >> my pleasure. when we come back, my favorite segment, the closing countdown. >> and no doubt a currency will come up there. also ahead, other things will be happening after the bell. markets soaring, and jeremy siegel may have a case of i told you sos, and we'll have the longtime bulls take, as he debates a bear who says it's time to sell. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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bell come back. just inside two minutes here. let's recap what's happened in the last 24 hours or thereabouts. is it started in japan with abe winning the parliamentary election. the stock market took off, up -- it was up 4% at its peak, just off that high when it closed, and the yen went lower. they're all expecting some sort of stimulus there in that

condition the s&p today had a record, and i don't know, it's the only other major averages doing that today. wheel while, unimpressive, not enough demand as might have been expected today. >> so the port thing is we're at new highs on the s&p, but we are well short of the indices, but more importantly double digits away from transports. mid cap also, even the small cam. >> i think it's interesting, this is the s&p weighted index. it's market cap weighted, because the s&p 500, the biggest stocks are drags it up.

it means the smaller companies in the s&p 500 still are a ways to catch up. so a record closing high for the s&p today. we'll talk about what that means for the rest of the week, as we get ready for owns. southern company ringing the closing bell. stay tuned for hour number two of the "closing bell." welcome to "closing bell." closing at a record high. i'm in for kelly evans. a check on how we're finishing up today. sending the s&p 500 past a record high. we have not seen them make a record since back in may 2015.

the nasdaq actually doing the best. still a few percentage points away from its own record high. earnings season kicking off in any second. we have an exclusive interview with klaus kleinfeld. senior markets commutator, mike san tolli. and foim trader. does that inspire another like higher here? >> i think you have to respect the fact we had follow through on the very up day. we're up about less than 2%, what did it take to -- lifting

and you have dividend stocks. oil going up 80% and the u.s. economy veering away from recession risks. >> while we're on the topic of the s&p hitting an all-time high, let's go back to the floor. we continue to call this the most unloved rally in a long time. i think that's what -- has if he had a new high today. let's look at what i think is an interesting sign the rotation. rallied today, so that's pretty

good. we had a number of last couple from gm, 3m, lockheed martin, a number of defense names. it's just she, real ly sided. the last couple months, frankly, sole cot gaits and sherwin williams, and stanley and black & decker have been at highs. the s&p i do want to emphasize that we're not there, particularly the dow transports. the s&p mid cap. the concerns with brekle recently.

let's head up to the analysis dak. bertha has a pretty nice rally. a pretty nice rally. for those yossed for the first time this year. u.s. to break even for the year. the move we have seen today is pretty binary. and the small caps, russell 2000 was actually the best performer on the day with the biggest gains. it actually has outperformed the larger cap averages, up about 5% year to date. maybe investors going back into some of these stocks thinking let's get more protection. go pro still down 80% from its high. one of the big winners in the small caps today. you did have about 200 new highs on the nasdaq, a lot of them megacats at historic highs, amazon will have a big day yet

tomorrow. it's prime today when it has a big christmas in july sort of sale, a lot of focus there. part of the reason it's lagging is apple. apple continues to be well above its 52-week high. pacific crest cutting its price target. we'll see if apple can come up with some sort of surprising results during the q2 earnings. so far it's been a laggard and a drag here. susan lee has the results. >> what a way to -- so coming in at 15 cents apiece, that's a real big beat. when it comes to revenue, a beat as well. 5.3 billion for the quarter.

alcoa does a that the split -- back to 2016. back to you. >> susan, thanks very much. joining us in a cnbc exclusive a klaus kleinfeld, our own jim cramer joins us as they get ready for the special appearance. just give us a sense how you did in that quarter? >> look, we are improving continuously all of our businesses and on the upstream they've been performing in a down price environment. we also are seeing that the market is changing constantly. we have being more agile. you see on the automotive side revenues are up.

though it's a -- up and also on the uptreatment they are delivering okay. her activity, cash, inovase, contracts. we opened our metals power plant, which is geared to -- and last but not lien, as well as full alcoa cooperation by the end of the year. up more than 4%. does this set you up, this better quarter. , for the coming split, what can you tell you when that happens? , and on our way to separate.

we put the initial form ten out, and to disclose a lot of things, so as i just said, all things are going well in regards to the separation. we are on course and what we plan to get it done. the good news is you see also the businesses are continuously improving. >> klaus, when you look at this quarter, i see alcoa with really the spectacular numbers. organic growth was this the star of the quarter? >> well, it's a commodity business. the good things is, as we have been seeing, the prices happen, stabilizing coming back on top

of it, if you see, you have been has been focusing on the things kell with control. so enormous business good -- when we both have the discussion of what is attractive. this will be a gigantic cass generator. and you see profitabilities going up. so good news on all fronts. >> apparently about 51% of iconic is aerospace. it looks like you're taking done the short term, but keeping your long-term vision that aircraft is strong.

>> i will go there tonight. this industry is going through a transition, a very interesting transition. the market is very, very strong, so people have basically been stop. order. so we now see the healing problem seems to be running out, so we probably a gross of 6%, and see in -- and when you look at the fundamentals, they very, very strong.

we'll let you both go. you can see the extended interview tonight, the stock is up more than 4% this hour. mike, what do you make of that? >> realtily trading in the tight range. this seems like this was net encouraging. i think that really is the investment decision right now, and the fact that the adjusted number probably came in better. >> such a good snapshot in many ways. they are their hand in everything. from jet engines to quuker electronics. if you didn't have, well, this was accounting for a -- because

honly it's not a cheap stock can't people have basically priced it in. >> would you buy alcoa? sow iconic is the sum of the parts are much more valuable than where the stock is trading. if you look at where it's trading relative to itself, it's neutral. i thinkle value-added business is a -- i -- and on the upstream side of their business, if you continue to see the recover i think that is something to own alcoa for. >> jason, we do have some breaking news on a deadly

shooting in michigan. sharon epperson has details. >> bill, three people are dead after a shooting at a michigan courthouse in southwestern michigan, the berrien county courthouse. following a briefs by the berrien county sheriff, he says two bail lifsz were killed, a deputy shave was wouldn'ted, and the suspect was killed in the courthouse shooting. this is an area of michigan in the extreme southwestern part of the state. writer gathering new facts from the berrien county sheriff's department. we have learn that -- two bail lives that were killed, and the third person killed was the suspect in the courthouse shooting. back to you, sarah. >> thank you, sharon. we know you'll stale on top of the details, and of course we'll

bring you anything as this story develops. a tough transition. we're talking about the markets here. jas jason, we have not ahead from you yet. >> people are still buying them. >> profits and interest rates, if you're discounting future catch flows by negative real interest rates, the p.e. goes higher. it's fundamental in that regard. i don't think that things have changed all that much. i'm not so sure it's that bad for the united states, but i think what you're seeing in the market, frankly is there's a shortagings a paucity of triple

a-rated assets. and some of them down pretty shatterly? >> it is somewhat surprising. i'm not sure it's that sustainable. i think one of the biggest problemsivity is that it kneecaps bank earnings. you have all this excess liquidity, yet it continues to go down. all of the central bank easen has been sterilized. inch i wouldn't really bet on that at this point. >> a regional bake just imposed a new feed. it -- because they need the money, right?

that which is manifestly deflationary. we have to have other ideas, i think japan rallied overnight, a regulartory easing, but we've continued to go straight up the middle, and in my opinion it's been very unsatisfies. >> tim, the final word, are earnings going to be the key whether this rally is ultimately sustainable from here? expectations for the quarter are down about 5% again. the bar is incredibly low. some of the multinationals that may have a tailwind, i think ifenings, some of the risks are a surprise to the slight upside.

be sure to stick around. you can catch more of tim seymour and more of the "fast money" crew. they'll be speaking with scott wren of wells fargo, he correctly called the rebound. that's again 5:00 p.m. eastern time. s&p 500 closing at a record high today, but is this rally real? especially with so much global uncertainty. we have a bull/bear debate for you coming next. mrs. more than 10% of the s&p hid a one-year high, but we have two stock pickers who say they have not missed the boat yesterday. you're watching cnbc, first in

business worldwide. foand llions more americans lwho feel its effects. t's walk tether to mak an even bigger impt and end zheimer's for good.

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tesla for possible securities law breach, according to dow jones. apparently tesla did not notify investors of the fatal crab on may 7th. tesla, on the other hand says it was not a, quote, material event. the investigation is at the material stages. >> this would be the base of the story in "fortune" magazine last week. >> and elon musk, you spode, he sparred with the magazine about that. pri evocative, saying there was no material information that that accident information. if you remember what he insisted, that the risk factors said that if they had product liability complaints or lawsuits from customers, that would be

material. he tried to kind of split hairs this that sense. you just thinking back on other situations, the stock had rallied a lot today on a twice that he had sent out. >> parts 2. i wonder how much of a -- >> that's a pretty mild kneejerk response. the s.e.c. works into a lot of things that don't really end up into anything. i don't think the market will rush to say this is an expensive proposition for the country. it's down just 8.3% right now, which points to something that elon musk said, you know, that even after the world got out,

the stock went up. >> he's saying that the market itself decided it wasn't tefrl. >> we have a debate going. jeremy siegel, professor of finance at wharton's school, and old ver porsche, gentlemen, welcome to you both. professor, are you still predicting do you 20,000? if so, reassert your case here. you know, i'm not going to gloat just because we're at an all-time high. it's the only index der we have do need to see an earnings renaissance in the second half of the year, and if we do, yes, we could definitely go up to dow

20,000. we could definitely go another 5% or 10%. on the basis of this year's earnings, we're talking about 18 multiple, which given the interest rate structures actually very low. believe it or not, i think there's a multiple expanse we can still experience here in earnings coop. >> olive, you must say i was surprised when they told me this morning you were coming on as a bear. what changed? >> i don't know. bearish is probably more aggressive, but neutral at best. >> if you believe in those two things, then it's really tough to make a bull case over the next three to six months. low interest rates are helping. there's no question about it, but on a fundamental basis,

things are getting pricey. so what you want to do is start taking some chips off the table and have some dry power for when the pullback comes. the end of the bull mark, you have typically a 20 or 10 multiwhat pal earnings, just because -- i don't know that that is getting a -- motivated. that's why i think you've been flat unit out. earnings had been about sideways for three years. >> jeremy, when you think about it, what has led us higher are the defensive unit. the financials have been the laggard this time around, so speak to the quality here.

those are yield sectors, but the entire year is over 2%, though it might not seem like a -- are getting anything close to that in the bank or cds, or as we know, even in government bonds. so i think that people thinking about income, i don't think that move is over yesterday. that's what i think could fuel still another couple points on the p.e. ratio. >> oliver, that's what a lot of

bulls would argue, and that's that there's nowhere else to go. the dividend is going to buffer and limit the down side when there is a pullback, but the question is, if i should put my capital to work, it's a hard case to make. you have slowing growth. professor siegle is absolutely right, we need more acoas, but i don't think there's a lot out there that believe they'll report earnings like this. we have the eps growth, come as a result of margin improvements. that's coming to an end. global growth is relatively flat. so it's just a tough case to make and kind of keeping it evening steven is okay and collect ago dividend for now. >> engineer hi siegle, and old ver porsche, thank for you joining us. we have a news alert on seagate.

25.8% for the fiscal fred, citing strong demand of shipments of around 37 million. the restructuring also continuing. by head count by problemly 6 a 00 sgloiees, or 14% by the end of fiscal year when stock

rallies, bond yields go up, but that's exact opposite of what's been happening lately. when we come back, we'll look at where the treasury rates were the last time. and what that could mean for this stock market surge. >> it's true, the correlations have been different this time. plus we'll hear from somebody who says the average american is a much worse investor than they realize, but he's here to offer advice on how to increase your odds in the market. we're back in a moment on "closing bell."

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record high for the s&p, stock storming back since the brexit vote. dominic chu joins us for a look at where bond yields, gold and other big investments were trading the last time we were in uncharted territory last year. dom? >> bill, what a difference 14 months makes. if you look at the then and now, we'll put our time machine to work, to give you an idea of what things looked like back then. and then where we are now. during that two-year span, it's up about 9%, against from these highs here in may of 2015 as to now, it's been a long time, 14 months since we've seen those highs. a look at the bigger macro pictures, at least trades, the ideas that the make rho picture is somehow different. back then everyone was talking

about how we would goo to 2.5%, the fed was going to raise rates, 2.25%, today all that safety bidding is fourth yields down to.4% and just about there right now. gold same kind of story. there was no reason to have gold again, inflation was under control, the fed was going to start raising rates. now that bid has put it up to 1360. oil we are well off our lows. still, back then sill 60 bukz a barrel. we're still only at 45 right now for west texas intermediate. the japanese yen, i know how much of a currency fan she's in, she is here. yen, it used to be 21, that's home you would get for ever dla dollar you exchanged. today the dollar will only buy you 102 yen some questions

remain about how different the picture is. >> it's not just for me. it's the most important indicator for everyone. just look at today what happened. how do you think we started off today before the rally? >> i love those kinds of comparisons. dom, thank you for staying late. that was good stuff. good to see you again, sharon. >> here's what's happening this hour. two bail lives were killed and a deputy sheriff hospitalized after being shot at the berrien county courthouse in michigan. the suspect was killed and area secured by police. florida firefighters in hill borough county are battling a 35-acre brush fire causing major traffic delays in the area. authorities say a lightning strike may be to blame. firefighters have been on the scene for nearly 24 hours. trial proceedings continuing for the fourth baltimore officer in the death of freddie gray.

lt. brian rice is facing charge of manslaughter, assault, reqless endangerment. he is the highest ranked officer being charged in the death of freddie gray. draped green was arrested on assault charges sunday morning at an east lansing restaurant. green was released on a $200 bond and is scheduled for a july 20th arraignment. that is cnbc's news update. back to you, sara, bill? certainly the bulges have been out in force. two wall street stock pickers tell us which names still look cheap to them. we'll be right back be right back. 6 and epg track of them quickbooks. now i'm on top of my expenses,. 6 ever.

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revenue, and forecast strong double-digit growth next year. that stock is up 3.75% in the after hours. tesla shares have been trading lower, on a report that the s.e.c. is investigating the automaker for a securities law breach for not notifying vectors of a fatal crash. elon musk said that was not a material event for investors. with the s&p at a record closing high, which stocks still have room to run? joining us big smiled, ceo of smead capital. bill, i start with you on berkshire hathaway. it just got dethrone as amazon as the fifth biggest stock. >> well, if you own the entire berkshire hathaway corporation or you own the entire amazon

corporation for 350 billion, which we have you has the most money to spend at the end of each year. three cash flow and profits are what you own a company for unless you are participating in a game of bigger fool theory. we heard dom chu talk about the statistics. we think the biggest risk in the martplace, the think that will confuse the most people is how much better the economy is 12 months from now than it is right now. it's not a bear market or other things that attract us to berkshire hathaway, it's an all-in bet. housing, railroads, you name it, they're all in on the united states. that's the place to be in our opinion. >> i notice -- you're talking about the b-shares, though. those are myoattainable for the investor. >> and a little more liquid to trade for as well.

you're betting on the consumer. you like target here, right? >> we like targets. it's one of our special portfolios that focuses on executive compensation plans we have seen this play out on target. while the valuation implies that it's -- to bush so i like to pick stocks that are good no matter the macro, so it's really hard to predict the macro. what you can focus on is where cash flows focus on, that's good riskself rewardened, and we think targets does a great job. >> just for follow up on that. another pick is lear. what's a interesting it if you looked at the stock charges, the

industry must be in pretty rough shape. implicitly are you betting though, that the market hag it wrong on that? >> i'm not a big fan of technical analysis. what the past performance of the stock doesn't necessarily for me matter, but i think it's always smart to buy stocks when they're cheap, when they've been going down for nonfundamental reasons. i think that's a good time. the market timers hall of fame has nobody in it. we focus on situation like with lear and target, cash flows have been strong and going,. all right. guys, we would love to talk more, had planned to talk more, but we have breaking news to get to in a minute. thank you both. s. we're going to do this after the break? okay. we'll do is after the break. in the meantime, it's the ten-year anniversary of cnbc's

top states for business ranks. we don't know what it is, but scott cohn has promised to offer's clue. >> markets hitting all-time highs, but some investors maybe being left behind. you next, why individuals have difficulty timing the market. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. we were born 100 years ago into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and passn to build something better. d what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege flying higher and higher,r,ogether. ♪

now to the breaking news we promised. it's on tesla. sharon? >> tesla spokesperson tells us that the company has not received any communication from the s.e.c. regarding this issue. tesla spokesperson telling us the blog post last week provided the relevant information about the issue, and in that blog post, they mention that that fatal march 7th crash of a tesla vehicle that had been on autopilot was still under investigation. it's the first known fatality they said in 130 million miles where autopilot had been activated. again tesla saying it has not received any communication from the s.e.c. regarding this issue, but we will continue to keep you apprised of any developments here. bill?

sara? >> sharon, thank you very much. we have a market flash. seema? >> i want to call your attention to shares of xerox. on the move bloomberg reports that they're in talks to purchase r.r. donnelly. remember the split of xerox into two companies is still on track, so this potential merger would involve the copy business, and shares up about 2% in extended trade. r.r. donnelly the bigger mover up, almost 8% after hours. bill and sara? >> thank you, seema. getting a little pop on that report. >> yes, they are. spencer jacobs says the majority of the u.s. has no yesterday how many he's --. >>ing to to figure out where it all goes wrong. >> bringing spencer in to join

us. i think investing is too easy now, don't you? invest online, you combine etf, you do don't need to do the homework. >> but it's always been this way. the costs are lower. people are the same, and people are always going to be the same. we're just not very good wired. we're not even wired to understand how we do this investing. if you ask people do you think you're average or above average or below average, just like for driving or looks, they'll say they're good investors. if you ask how much money they made, they huge le overestimate. it's a bigger estimate -- >> a favorite question of mine when you have to fill it out, what's your risk tolerance? people have no idea. you can say it's this high until the market goes south and then your risk tolerance is something like 24 hours or something.

>> we're about to hit the 40th anniversary of index funds, but the gap between how people do and how the market does is just as big as it ever was, why? look at spy, it's jumping around all day. just because you have a smart fund, so the book addresses that, tells you how to approach it. you can't change who you are, you can't change your brain, about you how you approach the market. >> you say the gap between performance and how it should be doing is as wide as it's ever been. shouldn't the fact that people overwhelmingly prefer small low-cost and in fact the actively fund is dying slowly, is that not a good thing? have people not learned a lesson? >> that's a good thing. costs matter, especially in this low return world, a percentage point means a lot, right? if you're only maybe 4%, 5% a

year, you don't want to pay a fourth of your return away to a guy who can't beat the market. that's a good thing. >> is that because think bee high continually? >> exactly. take today. people will ask hey, i heard that the s&p 500 closed at a record. does that mean it's getting top pi and i should sell? they'll both be wrong because all these decisions, you know, traging every tick of the market, sorry to say, but they hurt individual investors. people should put a wall between themselves and their money to stop doing that. i go through a lot of that. many pages in my book. >> congrats, heads, i win, tails, i win. out tomorrow. >> good luck with that. spencer jacob with "the wall street journal." going to read a column or two tomorrow. you'll see. cnbc's top states for business rankings are in. it's very exciting and scott

cohn is in the winning state, but he's not telling us where that is, but he'll give us a clue when we come back after this. er gup, they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, optis, futures... even advanced ders. and it os more charts than a t of other it lets you trade stocks, optis, futures... competitors do on desktop. even advanced ders. you work so late. i guess you don't see i see them all the te.? did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. maryuys a little lamb. one of milons of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of supplrs and employees global. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help at&t, mary's data could be under and secuty that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data saf than ever. ging them the agilitto be open & secure.

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it's that time of year again. scott cohn is live in where was that again? where? any way. >> you'll find out just about this time tomorrow. we'll know. >> all right. >> and we have a lot planned for that. it's going to be very, very interesting. this is our tenth year and here how we do what we do. we started our study during an economic boom. >> sales, buyer traffic.

future expeckations, they're all looking up. >> kept it going when times got tough. >> we're stating to think the unthinkable. >> a slow recover aand now, a cross roads. through it all, our mission the same. holding the stalt states to their own standards. which state has the top workforce. lowest cost of doing business. best infrastructures. we measure each state's economy, the quality of life, technology and innovation. we grade education, business friendlyness, cost of living and access to capital. and we tease you a long the way about where it is that i am in america's top state for business and with that in mind, one more diabolical hint. the need for speed. the need for speed. where could that be? weigh in with your guesses. hash tag is top states.

guys, the counterdown tomorrow and here on the closing bell, we will unveil america's top state for business 2016. >> i sort of recognized where you are. i think i know. >> somewhere very beautiful. >> i don't think we're going to do that. >> you have a clever mike? >> i think it's utah. salt flats. thank you. scott cohn. tomorrow is also amazon's second annual prime day. the company is promising more than 100,000 deals, but with increased competition from walmart, will shoppers be buying? that's next. ♪ it here, the years back:y fast. the t

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very quickly before go, joining us on the phone with more of the potential tesla fallout, the possibility that the sec is investigating the company. tom gorman is an sec lawyer. the company says they haven't heard from the sec, but t"the wall street journal" says they are investigating. is that possible they wouldn't tell them?

>> well, the company will certainly find out they're been investigated, but my guess would be that the sec's conducting what's called a preliminary investigation. it's a very preliminary look at what the facts is that probably taking a look at the filings and the some point, they'll contact the company for some basic information. >> so, based on what we know now, which is little and we're talking hypothetically, what could the fallout look like? >> depends on what the sec find, but eventually, if they find that the company for example should have made a filing, and disclosed this information, then they would probably enter into some sort of a settle m where the company would make the filing and there would be a fine for not making it. if they don't find anything, the sec would just close the investigation. >> we got to go, tom. thanks for stepping in here. >> sure we'll talk to you again. >> still developing now. all time high. >> oil was down. >> 2%.

looks like maybe some think it will stall out, but decent today through friday see what happens with bank earnings. and a lot of fed speak. >> still to come and we'll be here to cover that. mike r, thanks. sleep well. see you early tomorrow. that's it for closing bell. >> "fast money" begins right now. cnbc's breaking coverage of the market hitting new highs continues. traders on the desk are -- tonight on "fast money," the man sent to buy the brexit bottom is back. he'll tell us where he sees value now. plus, forget stock, bank of america says gold is going to 1500 bucks ahead of commodity research will be here to explain and later, is twitter's only hope donald trump? a surprising take, but first, breaking news. s&p 500 closing at a record high and it could be the most improbable and surprising rallies of all time. throughout it