tv Street Signs CNBC July 18, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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irresponsible. president obama condemns the shootings of three officers in louisiana. >> we don't need rhetoric or to advance an agenda. we need to temper our words and open our hearts all of us. welcome, again, to "street signs." turkey has arrested 6,000 people with reports of 8,000 police removes after friday's felled coup event. over 500 people were killed. the president has vowed to purge the state of the, quote, virus that's caused the result. >> translator: i had told you
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that these people were in preparation for a coup. i could not make you believe it. today after this attempted coup i call to you give turkey this person who is in pennsylvania. >> good morning. just give us a sense of the mood there and the making of the crackdown since that felled coup attempt. >> well, julia there's a lot of speculation. we even heard from eu leaders earlier in brussels saying it seemed as if on the judiciary side of things, the 2,000 members of the judiciary that have been arrested with the coup attempt that the president and government have seemed to have prepared or gone after it. this is a bigger request question of whether or not this has become a witch hunt and whether or not this is an attempt by the president and by the government to really remake
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the security apparatus of turkey. of course, we've heard earlier today and over the weekend members of the u.s. and government in particular secretary of state john kerry, he was basically rejecting the idea that there was any attempt in the coup and that turkey should move away from the principles. basically the president has said he wants to reinstate the death penalty. take a listen to what john kerry has to say. >> i think it's important that he does not do thachlt that would be a great challenge to europe, nato, and to all of us and we have urged them not reach out so far that they're creating doubts about their commitments to the democratic process, and i hope it won't result in that. >> of course, this relationship between turkey and the eu, for example, is absolutely strategic for both sides.
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frankly this is the country that's supposed to be stopping the flows into europe. certainly turk eric airport put as major stop on that. they're supposed to be working with the european union when it comes to the economy and democratic reforms. will they be able to move forward with democratic reforms or move backward? that's what we've been looking at over the past few days. if you look at the stock, it's down 2.6%. it seems as if the market has shrugged this off, but over time will this impact the economy and certainly with the lira. he's given liquidity to banks here. but the unpen dense also a major
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impact here. >> thank you. let's move on and show you the gain. what we saw on fred was a weakening of the dollar. a bounceback. there you see gains by 2.5%. taking back half of the losses we saw in the turkish lure ya. once agained a hadley mentioned. i'll given you a look another how the markets are morning. they're down 3.7% in the session this morning. head of research and turkish strategist joins us now. michael, good morning. it feels like it's played into erdogan's hands. do you agree? >> he'll have to decide whether he wants to take the opportunity of consolidating power. when doing, this it's not just
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going after the people involved with the coup. anyone associated with it, obviously they have to be addressed. >> five members of the body that tice the judiciary system, i don't think he's still got a choice to make here. hello, rule of law. >> what i would stress is they've always had suspicions about a lot of people. >> that many? >> i would think an environment like this, anyone you have a fire on and you suspect but you haven't proof, then you suspend them for the time being and then you decide. this is traumatic. when you talk about all the things erdogan has done and there have been a lot of things, one thing is clear. the's been a plot against him. we saw that with the leaks. they were orchestrated against you. when you have an attempted coup,
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what wouldn't. that's something that's ugly and hasn't happened. when you get people that deserve to depart, you put people in that are friendly and that's where the institution ". >> -- failures take place. >> exactly. he's accused of dominating the kun true by he can't change without opposition support. he allows that to allow to have a referendum and he still needs 50%. he almost never gets over 50% in any vote. what the interesting thick here to me will be does this play into his hands from an electoral process, does he get a post coup bump and because of that does he say, snap elections, let's consolidate power in a democratic way. ultimately turkey has this threshold where if you don't get 10% of the national vote, you
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get zero mps. there are four parties. two of them are just flirting with that. if i were just thinking about erdogan and not the good of the country, i would be looking at the polls over the next couple of days. i know the parties are very weak. this might be my chance. >> you mean a snap election. >> not just a snap election but a snap election that could lead to a super majority which would allow erdogan who dominates the party to change the constitution at will. this is the risk we're talking about right now. that would not be a positive development for turkey. the other option is if with go toward reconciliation. yesterday we had a call. one there was focused on reconciliation and the hope there won't be early elections. and if we go that route because there's another opportunity here. erdogan has been a positive
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leader for turkey up until the last three or four years. he's left the legacy. it's been tarnished in the last few years. this might be his historic ability to retaliate. it all came out very aggressively, very quickly. if he wants to reconcile, this might be his historic chance. if he wants to replace it, he's got to seize that positive historic opportunity. he has to earn his legacy as opposed to grabbing his legacy by opportunistically going for elections here. >> what about turkey? >>'ve been saying for a long time. turkey lacks equilibrium. if the most powerful guy in the country doesn't have power legally. that's a problem. >> they don't have the rye serves to protect themselves from this kind of thing that bad news creates.
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>> that's a good point. the lack of equilibrium, there was a shock resignation. that's when they understood that, yes, they lack equilibrium. no one's surprised things are wobbly when it comes to turkish politics. turkey has led with defense payrolls. >> yes, it has. >> there are tourists, financial tourists, they should leave. turkey's got some complications, but in terms of the fundamental money, i think it's going to be -- you need to wait a few days or weeks to see if erdogan beheches. if he goes about snap elections, forget about it for a while. if i'm a long-term investor, we
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have to see how it goes. >> we have to wrap up, but do you buy into some of the rumors that it was a failed attempt. >> a lot of stuff happens. the only reason that rumor exists is because this was such a tactically awful decision. >> inept. >> inept. regardless of how we got here -- >> -- here we are. >> the idea of reconciliation wouldn't be the consequence if that was the case. >> bingo. michael harris, good to talk with you. if you have any questions, e-mails, comments for the show. 'd love to hear from you. you can write me or tweet me. that's a lot of information. good luck finding all of those. coming up, chip maker armed, we'll bring you all the details. stay with us. we'll be back in two.
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welcome back to "street signs." let me give you an update. let me gook you look at the individual sectors so you can understand what's really driving this. we've got gains across the board. the gains under a bit of pressure but the gains for the orders, the banks. i want to show you the traveling leverage stocks. we've had the attacks in the last few weeks. we had seen pressure at the back end of last week. you see some of the key travel companies that obviously haare under a bit of pressure. the other sector we're watching
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very closely this morning is technology. japan's softbank is buying a company. it's worth 1,700 pence per share. softbank says it intends to keep the chip maker's senior management and headquarters in cambridge. i want to give you a look at how they're performing today by 43%. as you can see it make sense trading at that purchase price of 17 pounds. the two soft team banks plan to more than double the head count over the next five years. he says it provides a deal that has not lost its allure cyst the
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soft book. to what extent is this down to the end? >> i think that's a big part of it. i think that's a big part of it. as you pointed out, this deal in term os testify premium looks to be on the pricey side. perhaps it will make it more digestible for softbank. if you look at their strategy beforehand, they have been accumulating their war chest. they've been diverting key holdings, stocks ebb cluding alibaba. so they've been building up their firepower. there is a strategy here and that strategy is access to small phone chips to help them with the rollout of incident of things. that's the big idea here. yes, it duds look pricey but the
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price in sterling has made it a bit more palletaby letable. we'll see tomorrow and bridge you the update. jules, back to you. >> thanks, sri. neal, a gre neal, great to have you on the phone. what do you think? >> i think it has a great strategy. if you see the orders in the last three to four years, it's been completely diverse to all clear to gaining companies to even operators and even distributors. so if you look at the potential
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of a.r.m., it's a competing space and has a share in smartphone space. it's almost a $25 million fortune the next five years for a.r.m. but if you look beyond that. there are different markets like federal markets. these markets,'ve automotive, if you combine it for a.r.m., it's more than $25 million for the next five years. it's going reflect 20% to 25% at this pace. in the nonmobile computer space, it looks like it's building a big foundation to take on this market as well. so if there's a share of this,
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that means softbank has it for the next five years. >> just over 50% of their chips goes to nonworld markets. there's real excitement about their disruption in the internet of things. i wonder what the likelihood of somebody else coming in and upping the bid, even a google. neil, what do you think? >> there are few players. then you have smaller players. but these are very small and most of the tar gets, smaller markets and smaller customers in china. so the market is not that fragmented and it's already limited to two or three players. so building a war chest in the
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next decade for a new company is going to be very difficult. it's going require them to take away smaller shares. already it's not that big. it's just a.r.m. looking much more positive to gain a lion's share in the next three to four years. >> neil, great to talk with you. we've had some comments from the board of the bank of england, obviously following on the decision not to raise hikes. he says he doesn't know whether or not he'll back a rate cut at the august 4 meeting. there is speculation there will be given what carney suggested
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will be easing sometime in the summer. he said early action operan is needed. he said we should wait for firm evidence before acting. he said waej growth is outstripping productivity and that wages the fine tuning to argue that the currency is doing the work for them. look at what we're talking about there relative to the drop with sterling. 15% drop. he's saying avoiding market disappointment is not a reason to cut rates here. interesting as you can see, sterling high oesh that news. now, the uk needs an immediate interest rate cut along with further easing. he's the only member of the bank of england's policy committee who did vote for a rate cut at last week's meeting brighting in the financial times, they argued more stimulus is needed in the wake of the brexit vote which he
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says will likely lead to lower growth and higher inflation. now, a new study suggests technology will drive it going forward with 67% buyinggy cal capabilities in the next two years. deal making held city in the first half of 2016 despite an uptick in market volatility. we're joined now. steesh, great to have you on the show. >> julia, thanks for having me. >> how about the last 20 minutes or so. is this indicative of what we're talking about? >> it absolutely is, julia. there are three factors that will continue to drive the market. one is the search for growth and every ceo you talk to, growth is number one on their agenda. second is the growth. technology. this is creating deal activity that we would not have seen four or five years ago. and the third is globalization.
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companies are going global. whatever happens in terms of national is tick sentiment, put aside. those three factors will drive a continued strong market. >> what do you think of the u.k. here because in the aftermath of the brexit vote there are real concerns that this would mean deal making here. what are your thoughts here and what are people saying to you? >> first of all, i would not bet against the uk. the uk is still open for business. certainly when you see a period of uncertainty york u will see a bit of skittishness. but frankly some of the pullback we saw, some of that's corrected. so if you look at the overall pipeline of transactions, did maybe a quarter to a third fall off the table at the announcement, yes, but some of those have come back. and for all the reasons i mentioned, companies need to grow.
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companies are going digital. and global growth. the uk remains a very attractive market. ip-rich. many companies, you will see them going outbound but also inbound taking advantage of currency. >> when you look at the last months, i think it was china, just under 390 deals you saw from the chinese here, what are they particularly focusing on? what are your expectations for the second half? >> for the second half, i expect it to continue at the same rate. if you look at the first half, it already eclipsed all of the prior daryl year. chinese companies are moving up the value changin. >> what about the broader aspects, the brexit vote to europe and the level of dysfunction and the level from
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foreign buyers. who knows what's going to happen this year, whether we're looking at italy. we have future elections coming up. i mean there's a number of factors that potentially could turn an investor off. you're not worried. >> there are a number of factors. look. for three months or four months, you've seen a pull back. i think we've learned one thing. that is standing still is the same as going backward. companies can not afford to do anything other than play hard in europe. so despite all of the economic and geopolitical trimmers, and we've seen lots of those. ceos have learned they have to fight for growth and value and, frankly, you cannot stand still. >> headline deal value, so far, is down 18%. is that skewed by lack of big size versus number?
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>> absolutely. it's skewed by eight or ten mega deals as we saw overnight. if you look at volume, it's basically flat year on year. if you look at value, it's at 35% on 2013. so you have to remember every year can't be a record year, but this will be a very good year. >> so your message is don't be concerned by the headline numbers, there's still plenty of potential. >> my message is there's plenty of potential and companies need to do deals on growth. as you saw on the survey, two-thirds of the executives that we surveyed will do deals to conquer the issues around digital disruption that are facing the sectors. >> 0.9%, you said, will have to go more. >> yes.
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and two-thirds, they'll have go out and acquire. you see it every day. whether it's in ad digitals, life sciences, you sear seeing it in every sector. let's take look at some of our other corporate moves this morning. ubs and dvs are under investigation by a singapore bank over potential money laundering. ubs declined cnbc's request for a comment. and moody's has downgraded a bank's ratings due to an increasing likelihood of state intervention. shares at the italian bank have fallen to 4%. down 35% in the last 30 days.
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we have the take a quick break. but take a look. keeping abreast of all the top stories. stay with us. we're back in just a few minutes. they told me a bottle couldn't dream. that i would never become a superhero. [singing indistinctly] but i learned how to fly. just to come back in a new disguise, and be the hero i've always wanted to be.
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and i'm julia chairsly. there was a failed coup over the weekend. secretary of state john kerry rejects the idea of u.s. involvement in the turkey coup saying the accusations are irresponse. president obama condemns the killings of three police officers in louisiana, calling for a measured response ahead of the party conventions.
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>> we don't need inflammatory rhettry. we don't need careless accusations thrown around to score political points or to advance an agenda. we need to temper our words and open our hearts, all of us. welcome back to the show. let you give you a look at the markets. if you look at the individual sectors, it's downside with the gas sector. seeing losses for oil and gadget. health care also dipping into negative territory. let me give you a look at what's going on in the foreign exchange market. what are we, 0.5%. we have martin wheeler saying he's not going to necessarily vote for a rate cut in that
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august meeting. that's pushing sterling a touch hider. more broadly it's broadly higher. dollar also higher versus the yen and the swiss. former president nicolas sarkozy has said there's not enough that's been done. he said, quote, democracy must not be weak nor simply come m. y not surprised he would jump on the result. >> no, not at all. in the past. his initial reaction was quite reserve bud now he's followed up in a tv interview saying france was at war a total war.
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we have to keep in mind that the republican party for the first time will hold nominations, who will run for the presidency on their side and these will take place in november. so he's trying to shore up his credenti credentials. >> what we receive in the past 18 months with the big attacks we saw was support acting as a statesman. has it now turned to a point where these are becoming too frequent and actually you're not doing enough? >> we don't know yet because we don't have any opinion polling figures on it specifal specific. but you're right. there's one poll that should really concern pohollande that came out. just as a comparison, in january
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of last year, 51% gave that answer. i think we will not see the same effect as hollande saw before. >> the new news is they've claimed the attack but have nod provided any evidence. this could be be opportunistic over a separate event. >> indeed it could. we don't know yet. fwirch the size of this particular attack and the severity, there's an incentive of claiming it and've saying we've inspired yet. it's not established yet clearly. there's still the possibility that we had actually a severely mentally ill person who resorted to this horrific act. >> you made a point, that the islamic state has been suggesting to potential followers, these kinds of attacks could have a vast impact
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if you want to, they talked about using trucks. it establishes the fact that propaganda is working. >> indeed. one of the major concerns of security service across europe and the u.s. is it's been particularly effective and it might help people who don't hold deep convictions and follow their cause but who for various reasons may try to do serious harm to society. >> whether or not this particular event is or is not tied to them, do you expect them to see or to enact more shows of force in a sense because of what's going on?
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>> the chance of attacks is high over the next month in europe and the u.s. pause they have to show relevance. the more important it is to stage high-impact attacks outside the territory. >> france more dangerous than anywhere else. >> for various reasons. i think france has a very specific risk profile and it stems from the country's very active role in fighting i.s. and the country's role in fighting islam's country as well. especially the marginization of migrant communities, that probably have contributing to these people being more skeptic
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skeptical -- susceptible to this. moving on, three officers were kill and two injured in baton rouge, louisiana, nearly two week as f the fatal shooting of a black man in the town. the attack comes just over a week after the massacre of five dallas policemen. nbc's jay gray has the latest. >> reporter: much of baton rouge is left down following a sunday morning attack on police. >> shots fired, officers down. >> reporter: two baton rouge police officers as well as a sheriff's deputy were killed. three others were injured, one remaining in chris cal condition. as fellow officers rushed in, the gun battle continues. >> that suspect now identified as gavin eugene long was shot and killed. >> we took the suspect down.
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we're going to check him out with a robot before we investigate on him. >> reporter: police and federal agents are working to determine if what the major describes it as an ambush. it comes days after the killing of officers. throwing the city into the senn tell of protests and the national spotlight. sterling's aunt has called for an end to the bloodshed. >> at the end of the day these people call their families and tell them how their daddies and mothers are not coming home. i know how they feel because i got the same phone call. stop this killing. stop this killing. >> echos from the white house. >> only we can prove we have the grace and character and the common humanity to end this kind of senseless violence.
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>> the family, once again, mourning the loss of those who wear a badge. jay gray, nbc news, baton rouge. hillary clinton is maintaining her lead on donald trump. according to the latest "wall street journal" nbc news poll. clinton continues to top trump. meanwhile security remain as top concern as the republican national convention gets around way today. nbc's tracie potts joins us from cleveland. tracy, i'm looking at the list of apparent no shows. i just wonder what the bigger concern is, donald trump himself or the security issues. >> probably more so trump. i mean they've had a lot of security here. they've got this area on lockdown. they've got 3 1/2 miles of steel
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fencing ing around this. there are more than 5,000 officers including federal officers that have been brought around from the country. interestingly after the police shooting yesterday in louisiana the union is asking the governor to suspend their open carry law. the governor says he cannot do that. while that has been a concern for police, they have a lot of security here. inside what's happening, today there are a number of headlines. we're talking about all the people who are not here. it's a significant number of high-profile republicans who come to these things including bushes. on the other hand they listed the list of people who will be attending and speaking they're
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growing to adomtd that platform. what are the ideas they're going to be pushing. also are they going to be dealing with the stop trump movement. they weren't able to get to it before the convention so now we hear they're going to try to do it from the convention floor. the bottom line, julia, they don't have the numbers to force people to vote for someone over than trump. >> former presidents, tracie, what are we expecting there? >> i'm sorry, repeat that? >> what about former presidents? who are we expecting there? >> yeah. in terms of former presidents, you know, the bushes are not coming and not attending this convention. former presidents 41 and 43 as
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we've called them here, they've stayed far away from this convention. that's going to be gaping hole as they try to nominate donald trump but also unify the parent behind him. the state that we're in, they voted for john kasich. so in the first ballot, they're bound to vote for kasich. >> tracie potts, nbc news. we're going to take a quick break. coming up on the show does the attempted coup make a no-go for specialists at a blackrock. stay tuned. that's coming up very shortly. is
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browned champion of the british open in scotland. it was a memorable day at royal troon, one that will go down. this was spectacular. rich along david. phil mickelson began this final round only a shot back. he went out and shot a bogey and a 65. >> there's a lot of talk about how good he's always hit the golf ball. he made a lifetime's worth today and this week. it's something we'll talk about for a long, long time. >> it was a great heavyweight fight, wasn't it?
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>> it certainly was. they couldn't leave the top two players in the final group for a good reason. to put it in per speck tifb you had the top three and they respectively finished 21, 18, and 22 shots. there's a good reason. we just fixated on mickelson and stenson. >> it's food enough it's so rare we see a display of accuracy, power, decision around the putts and somebody completely unaffected, that's what we saw this weekend. it was, to quote you, equal to the duel of the sun. >> this was the 11th runner-up finish at major championship for phil mickelson. the only man with more finishes jack nicklaus. henrik stenson is all in for the
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olympics with golf and that gives them a real boost. let me give you the latest on the markets. you can see 0.3% gains on the ftse. the basic rye source is tilting to the downside. the real gains are coming from the tech sector, 3.7% gains overall there. the deal between softbank and a.r.m. likely to be the biggest tech acquisition ever in europe. lifting a whole host of names in that particular sector. let's look at the others. despite the attacks in nice and what occurring in turkey on friday, the ten-year bund hit positive yield for the first time since the uk referendum
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vote. some eyes here on whether we're going to see a bit of a pickup in bond yields across europe and the u.s. perhaps one to watch. the ecb going to watch the program later today. the central bank has brought around 8.5 billion euros to date. now the turkish government has arrested 6,000 people from its armed forces and judicial system as president erdogan continues to crack down on suspected plotters. the pledge to, quote, pledge all institutions of supporters from u.s. based. meanwhile turkey's prime minister sought to allay market fears by assuring them that the financial operations are operating as normal. >> reporter: our banking system
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operates perfectly. our central banks do the necessary work. our capital market institution and all of our financial institutions carry out their activities without being subject to every any restrictions. everything is okay. >> sergio of blackrock joins us now. what are you saying now. >> >> depending whether you hold that or the kcurrency, i think the youtd come is a bit different. i think the spread has widened enough to offer a proceed yum. but when you look. it's going to be going forward the variable of the adjustment of the situation and depending
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how fast the situation is normalized, how fast turkey goes to business as usual. fx will be quite volatile, especially if there's additional noise coming on the weeks. and with regard to local bonds, there the situation might be that tl government might be tempted to cut rates to assume morowt their inflation might be heading back again. so it depends what happen this week. >> now, you guys more broadly in terms of emerging market called for an end of the bond market back in february of this year. has anything changed? i mean we've had the u.n. referendum which clearly has changed things a little bit in terms of perspective. has anything changed? >> well, in february we made a call on the bottoming of oil
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prices and of fed becoming more neutral and dovish later in europe. i think what has happened since then is much more important and you could imagine, you have this draw in incoming yields and emerging markets starting to have green shoots, starting to have some growth coming back and you have these herds of pension funds. they've started to migrate into emerging markets to get that income. >> so $13 trillion worth of market debt with negative yields. >> that's the point. if you're getting paid 7%, 6%, 5%, it's very attractive. it was a noisy place. not necessarily the place to be.
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now it's the place to be. this is reflected by the flows we saw. for example, at blackrock we saw the equivalent. the same to our eti shares. you see them looking at them trying to make extra money. they're just capitulating into emerging markets. we saw an acceleration on the i share side. they were looking and this was the excuse. of course, emerging markets very far away from brexit, so they refuse to do there. >> interesting. what about china. we've seen a consolidation and this expectation of continues simulation, is that off the table now which kind of supports the thesis? >> it's never going to be off
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the table but it's far away. you have the situation coming from a hard landing to some feeling of a soft landing. others are comfortable with the latest movements. so this means that as investors, you're less focusing on china, more focusing on actually generating some income in the coming months. >> i hate to jump on something like the financial media when they get excited that the bond yield is in positive territory, whoo-hoo, we can get excited, but do you see anything that gives you reason for caution? there was a concern. if you start to see better things, perhaps we could see it. >> i think this is the moment where you want eventually to start eventually hedging the duration of your bond portfolio.
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so if you're invested in dollar markets, this is where you're going to get eventually some pricing where the market went far ahead. so you want to have some hedging of your lower yield assets. and as well eventually on the currency side, the lower yielding currencies as a short to make sure to capture the higher ending currency's income rather than just playing all in. >> makes sense. i mean if i look at year-to-date returns, 9%, 11% for local debt. i -- as an vestinvestor, i can at the upside. where should i be in vesting? what region. >> you have to look at the hard region and the dollar rally.
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this is a place where your income is safer. if you go to local markets, this is where you're seeking ground for a related value. on the upside forecast you're not dollar-based invested, eventually this is where you want to go. but if you want to make sure as we go into this is a farry story, you don't get, you know, slaughtered on any event such as turkey, you might want to go unconstrained. so pick up the emerging markets that are safer rather than the situation that might hit your portfolio if you're just seeking income. >> it makes sense. sergio, great to chat with you. now, moving on.
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bart johnson moved on. >> the message i'll be taking to council is leave the european union. we're leashing europe. with ear not going to be in any way going to be leaving. i had a very good conversation last night with a representative and she agreed that's a role that britain should continue to play. clearly when you look at the discussion on the table in nice, the horrific events in nice and turkey where we have to work very closely tonight, you can see the importance of that. nice will be ensuring we coordinate our response to terror, and on turkey, i think it's very important in view of the failed coup that we see
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restraint and moderation on all sides. >> so now to today's other top stories. japan's softbank buying holdings for 23 bill. it's worth 1,007%. it plans to keep the chip maker an seen your management and headquarters in cambridge. let's take a look. you can see where it's moving up. 1,700 pence. that's it for today's show. i'm julie chatterley. world exchange is coming up next. i'll see you same place, same time tomorrow. "world exchange" next. i'll see you same place, same time tomorrow.
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