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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  July 21, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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like the oils. i think we'll have $65 oil probably within a year again. >> joe, it's always fun to talk with you. i will look forward to seeing you. be well out there, and come back soon. >> thank you. appreciate it. bye-bye. the big event that's on nbc by the way, tonight 6:00 p.m. and on saturday. that does it for us, power starts now. it is 1:00 in clears, also here in the east. you're going to look live at the floor of the republican national convention. in less than nine hours, you will hear from donald trump. that man, as he addresses the rnc, and accepts the nomination of the party. and joe theismann just told our audience, the nine-day winning streak officially at risk. the dow jones industrial average is down slightly right now. still, everybody. hear, we're not in tahoe. i wish we were, welcome to
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"power lunch." a uva calf lien and a hokie anchoring together. >> in peace and brotherhood. >> anything is possible in this world, folks. the talk here should be donald trump tonight. governor mike pence's speech last night as he accepted the nomination by vice president, which by most accounts was well received by the conservatee audience. instead everyone is still talking about senator cruz after he got booed off the stage for not endorsen donald trump and he doubled down this morning going even forward openly criticizing donald trump. >> i'll just give you this response. i am not in the habit of supporting people who attack my wife and attack my father. >> let's bring in john harwood.
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he's in the middle of it all here. this story just doesn't go away, john. >> reporter: it doesn't, michelle. you know, the first task of a political convention is to unify a party. then you reach out to people who may not be part of your coalition. they haven't done the first part yet. that's what ted cruz's speech last night underscored. that's what the boos on the floor at of rules vote showed, and so this is not southbound successful. the good news for donald trump is the most important part of the convention comes tonight. he's got a shot to reach unfiltered tens of millions of people and makes the case which hasn't been made so far with any persuasiveness of why he should be president and could serve as president. most of the discussion so far has been about how bad hillary clinton is, but i was talking to one former republican member of congress today who said we have not made the case
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for trump. donald trump has a chance to do that tonight, and of course his data ivanka will also be speaking about him and trying to flesh out the personal side. >> we're going to bring in sarah fagan as well. the cruz thing doesn't go away. >> yeah. >> can we get the shift to donald trump tonight? >> if he gives the speech of his lifetime, yes. ted cruz's speech last night was interesting for a couple reasons. both team cruz and team trump really kind of bungled it. at this stage of the convention, in this stage of the election cycle we should be marching in unity. in fact, it got worse, not better. if he lost a very close election in november, ted cruz would be blamed primarily, but there's a logic to what ted cruz did.
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it hurts him in the short term, no doubt. but either donald trump wins, and you may think he governs as a liberal and you want to challenge him in a primary and you drew your distinction last night, or he loses -- i'm sorry, he loses and mike pence is the potential front-runner, and then you've drawn a contrast with mike pence as well. >> the other big headline, john, is donald trump gives an interview and sets conditions for defending a nato ally, estonia latvia, lithuania, who are very concerned about vladimir putin rolling right over them as they are on the border. he says they would only defend them only if they had contributed enough to nato. >> the full faith and credit financially of the united states is a critical element of what american exceptionalism is, and so is the military obligation and meeting those obligations of the united states to its treaty
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allies, including nato allies. michelle, wrerp talking before the show about questions about exactly what nato would do if the baltics were overrun. nevertheless for a potential president of the united states to cast doubt on the response of nato and the united states to russian aggression? that is something that we simply haven't seen before. it's got a lot of foreign policy hands, veterans in the republican party shakeses their heads and provides an opening for hillary clinton to say i'm the candidate of stability. i would stand up to russia. that's an opening that hillary clinton will be delighted to exploit. >> i think he was thinking about money, which is the theme we've heard before. all of western europe, almost none of them commit to the 2% gdp like we're supposed to, they ought to be paying up instead of us footing the bill, about you
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it came out as a foreign policy snafu. >> go ahead, john. >> reporter: i understand the financial argument, but the bottom line argument nevertheless is national security and the willings in of the united states to follow through on its commitments. the fact that someone hasn't paid their bill is not something that the most powerful country in the world traditionally has allowed to stand in the way of meeting that obligation. >> that was the point of my question with sara. >> he's also thinking is the broader electorate, which is tired of defending all these conflicts around the world, no doubt about it. however, as we head into the democratic national convention, this was a huge error by him. you will see, i think, unlikely people come out publicly for hillary clinton as a result of this if he doesn't walk it back seriously. >> you mean members of -- >> the republican establishment, that will say donald trump is
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unfit if that's his position. bipartisan presidents have always supported nato. that will happen, and clinton -- >> but this election is so weird, sara. if elites come out and say that, does it hurt him? i'm note convinced it does emplgts it probably won't hurt him with the sort of swing voters, but with the cocktail crowd, the college-educated white voters who he's underperforming with right now, they're going to hear message after message at the dnc convention and in the debates that this person is unfit to be commander in chief. >> reporter: michelle? >> and that accrues to his negatives in a huge way at some point. >> reporter: >> reporter:, donald trump like every other recent republican nominee needs 90%-plus support from his party to win. so you don't have to alienate a vast bloc of rank-and-file
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voters to be in deep trouble in the election. in fact, some of the convention speakers here, who are going along with donald trump, embracing donald trump even if a little cooley, are uncomfortable by his relationship with russia. i talked to tom cotton, the senator from arkansas, rising star, may run for president himself in a few years. i asked him before the nato interview, about concerns that donald trump has been too cozy with vladimir putin. take a listen. is he more friendly with russia than is in america's best interests? >> putin was a kgb spy, and he never got over that. he doesn't have any american interests at heart. i suspect after this week, when donald trump is the nominee and he begins to receive classified briefings, similar to what i receive in the committee, he may have a different perspective and
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what russia is doing to america's allies and interesting in europe and asia. >> so you have a future republican candidate, potentially, expressing the hope that donald trump, once he gets classified intelligence, will have a different attitude toward russia and vladimir putin than he has now. that is not a confidence-inspiring message for the broader at the -- one sense, what does he have to say to bridge that gap? >> he's got to lay out a positive, hopeful vision, both on economic policy for the country and foreign policy for the world. >> sarah fagen, thank you, and john harwood, thank you. tune into our special report tonight, 10:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. tyler? michelle, thank you very much. last summer a group of well-known ceos held a secret meeting to discuss the state of publicly traded companies and to
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go about making the public market more attractive for privately held companies. today the group has released a public letter with what it calls common-sense principles that suggest how current executives should lead their businesses. warren buffett was one of the leading executives in this group. he's what he had to say earlier this morning about going bub. >> i originally would have preferred berkshire hathaway to be a private company. over the years, my view on that has changed. i enjoy having berkshire being a public company. i don't know if we have a million shareholders or even more, but i like the fact that people put their trust in us, and that we tree them like partners. >> let's bring in eric scherrenberg, editor in chief, and herb greenberg. guys, welcome. eric, you've got your finger on the pulse of private companies, many which stayed private.
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why do you think more and more companies want to stay private? >> tyler, going public has always been a trade-off. you had to give up a lot of privacy, the ability to make decisions in private with your closest advisers, and instead go public where every decision you made is in a fishbowl,ened a spotlight. the trade-off is it's easier to raise capital, but today there's a lot of capital in the private market. the up side isn't quite as necessary as it used to be. >> one of the points, herb, made in this open letter and is part of the discussion, is an aversion sort of systemically to the idea of earnings guidance, quarterly earnings guidance. should we begiving quarterly earnings guidance? semiannual? should there be no guidance at all? >> i'm in the no guidance at all, camp, but at the very least
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antly. it creates not just schott-termism, that people would define it, but it it -- and they get into the whole stock market thing, which is important, because they're, you know, their investors, the reason they're public is for investors, but i think that's a great idea. i don't think it would ever happen. they can talk about it as much as they want. in principle it sound great. very few companies will go that way. >> eric, one of the few things i can only imagine that a lot of executives spend a fair amount of time is one, meeting with investors, and two getting ready with the earnings call and getting the messaging exactly right every quarter, so the market doesn't react poorly to whatever the results are or whatever the company says. that feels like a waste of time. >> i think a lot of investors would agree with you. michael dell complained about
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20% of his time was spent just on reassuring investors and giving them information, money that might have been spent innovating or strategically thinking about the future of dell. he's a lot happier as a private ceo. >> herb, what about the idea of splitting the role of chairman and ceo. mr. dimon oof chase didn't initially like that idea, but this is one of the things that's part of? sort of manifesto, if i can call it that. or if you don't do that, forever a very strong independent lead director. >> a very strong independent lead director is a good idea, and so is replying it. when the ceo graduates to the board, does he just remain chairman? then when he's there, is it really independent? these are all great concepts, but again once they're on the stock market treadmill, it's
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just so hard to get off. >> herb, thank you very much. thanks, herb. thanks, eric. a butte shot of lake tahoe, where today big-money athletes and big-money managers are getting together for golf, gab and probably a few more cocktails. two of them will join us, including charles barkley. he's got a lot to say on a lot of things. "power lunch" is back in two. ♪ it's here, but it's going by fast. the opportity of the year is back: the merced-benz summer event. get to your dealer today for incredible once-a-sean offers, and start firing up those grilles. lease the c300 for $3 a month
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welcome back to "power lunch." we find susan lee in tahoe, she's there with the ceo of american century, jonathan thomas. susan? >> reporter: hi, brian 27th addition of the american century championships, and our host, jonathan thompson. great to see you. >> great to be here. >> you're paired with stef curry. >> yes i am. >> are you ready? >> i think anybody could play with him. he's a phenomenal athlete. it's hard to believe golf is the second hobby for him, given the way he plays. >> let's get to business. i want to talk about the 40% stock ownership that belongs to
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a nonprofit, medical research company. given that it looks like the department of justice wants to block these big health insurer tie-ups, does it have an impact on you? >> it doesn't have much of an impact. we've a privately held company, the 40% is owned by a medical research organization, actually the result of a flan tlopg cal gift of our founders that drives us to fund medical research and find cures for gene-based -- we do some collaboration. one of the other top stories is warren buffett talking about changing the govern yang structure within boards, maybe for companies not to provide guidance in the future. you're a big institutional investor. how do you feel about that? >> the thing that warren and those guys got together and talk about is what we would refer to as good esg practices.
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increasingly over the last years, good governance comes into vogue in terms of invests, both for institutional investors and retail, because the statistics show that organizations with good governance practice, whether it's diversion boards or, you know, better disclosure actually perform better over the lost teng. say hi to my colleague brian sullivan. >> how are you? >> not as good as you guys out there, but a serious question. is corporate america broken? >> yes, sir. >> you think corporate america is broken? >> not at all. i don't think that. i think it's doing quite well. you know, i do think the public companies are until a level of pressure that makes it increasingly difficult for them to compete and it's one of the reasons you see fewer and fewer companies going public over the years, and more and more
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companies staying private. a lot of them come out as megacaps because they stay private so long. >> i'm going to jump in, because we're running out of time, and susan has a question, but i want to follow up on a story that i'm working on in a couple weeks, what is the risk or reward that the fact that to your point fewer and fewer companies are going public? number of ipos is way down, so the pool of available stock to buy is down. seven kind of in some way a good thing? fewer shares means more money goes to it and stocks go up. >> that's a great question. yeah, i mean, fewer shares are available through both ipos, but also fewers shares available because of massive amounts of buybacks. i think that's had a bump effect in the market, but the ipo market, when they do come out, come out so large, these making
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up for lost time ultimately. >> one more question for you. you said there's a lot of cash on the sidelines. are these stock market levels justified? >> for the last year or so, you've seen a lot of folks putting money into the markets. in june there was a pretty being reversal. you see a bit of nervouses in and some of the only asset classes gaining posit flowing in the month of junes were safe places, municipals. alternatives and target date funds. i think sblz some unsecurity. >> record levels then, if that's the case? >> i think we're fully valued, probably. sitting right near to times p.e. values, but i don't think we're heading towards a crash. we're in a good spot. >> jonathan thomas, thank you, the ceo of american century. >> thank you. you can catch all the tournament action on nbc sports tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern, and on nbc saturday at 3:00 p.m.
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it is fun to watch. nothing more fun to watch than charles barkley playing golf. he will join us a bit later on "power lunch." it's been a rough day for southwest airline investors and customers. we'll tell you why, straight ahead. ♪ love hurts it'a esti we get from some of o largest banking clients. then atm's. today it'their mobile app running on the ibm cloud. ross everyransacti, the hybrid cloud helpsheir data move quickly and securely. our clients are ildiut features and pug updates faster, on five continents. with the ibm c, they can move at theeed of.
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♪ 're drowning in information where, in alof this, ishe stu that matters? the stakes are so high, yourinances, your future. how do y solve this? you don't. you partr with a fm that advises governments and the foune 500, morgan stanley. and, c deliver inshterson on wt matts youments
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a rough day if you're a southwest investor or customer. stock almost off about 10% after the company reported weaker than expected results fratly a nationwide computer glitch forced southwest to delay or cancel hundreds of flights on wednesday. the backlog spills into today. this video is from dallas southwest says all computers are back up and running, so the hairball is getting sorted out. if you read this on my facebook page, don't worry. there's been changes in the past 24 hours. it has to do with pretty cool stats about the market and your money. if you've been at the beach or political convention or just chilling out. here's a quick recap of some of the heady stats that we've had with the rally even with today's slight drop. july is not even over. so far this month, the nasdaq up
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5%, the dow up slightly more than 3 punz. 40 s&p 500 stocks are up more than 10%, just since the beginning of july. get this, 80% of the s&p 500, 400 of the 500 stocks have moved higher this month. here are two bonus stats to make you look smart at a barbecue this weekend, the best-performing seagate technology, the worst performer oil and gas company hess, and the biggest best performing stock is little-known harsco, it's a pennsylvania-based industrial firm, up 48% this month. they had some problems -- >> they had some issues and it's come back. if you are genius enough to call the bottom on this stock back in march 1st, you've had may 185%
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return in about 140 days. harsco. back out to michelle at the rnc with what's on tap next? >> one of the donald trump's informal economic advisers is going to join us to talk about tariffs on the chinese imports? and how devastating or not would that be? plus governor of kentucky matt biven, who held a real job before he became a politician, all that and more coming up on "power lunch." ck crawlingis )
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welcome back. to the presidential on the stage doing the walk-through, as he prepares for his speech tonight. we were discussing earlier whether or not he's going to use the teleprompter, which has been set up. john harwood is here with me, as well as carl kquintanilla.
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and kelly. >> he's got to reassure americans, he is capable of serves as commander in chief. the problem is the message of the convention has been all about what's wrong with hillary, but it hasn't been about what's right with trump? but how? >> what a week it's been on policy, right? talking about whether or not the tack plan needs to be revised.
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i'm not sure if the a interest of time, john or kelly or michelle, what you spend on policy when there's so much to be done. >> it's not a state of the union laundry list, but directionally, you have to help people sundays how they'll make their lives better. glee there's a large part that still hasn't come his way. >> the proxy is when he's on the prompters he, and when he starts arrives, he's playing to his crowd. what i find interesting, too is not only within his own party, but from the democrats, a
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narrative running beneend the surface is how many -- i don't know if we call them reagan democrats? i don't know what the term is, but how many people are responding to the kind of narrative, the kind of who might not have been republicans? >> a lot of union members, for example. >> i do think we were probably underestimating the power of the woman to the right there in the red. her data is remarkably eloquent. i think we do expect her to speaks for a longer period of time, maybe even longer than donald junior and tiffany spoke. >> most of the democrats have long since become republicans. if you look at non-college white voters in the 2012 election -- all right. we're going to step in there -- we lost a little audio. let's go to scott wapner with
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some developing news. >> it's a statement from william j.pulty group, the largest founder, and it follows the agreement with elliott management. met pulty saying in a statement we have exclusively, i am encouraged by the initial shareholder victories that were announced today. the board appears to be taking the first step in addressing the protracted for-share price performance. while i wish we would have avoided a public dispute, i believe my direct involve was a catalyst for significant change. numb be one, he wants more boor a seats for executives as part of the deal between the company and elliott. there would be three new members of the board. they announced a billion and a half buyback. mr. pulty saying he would like
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to see the at the --ened in a fair and expeditious process. he will leave in 2017, there have been suggestions he should leave earlier. mr. pulty saying -- so that's the statement from william pulty. michelle? >> got it. scott wapner, thanks so much. we're back here at the rnc. donald trump still on the floor, his daughter ivanka to his left. we are chatting about her, ands relatively speak, right? willing to stay on message, not arrives nearly as much. >> if he could give a speech as
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good as donald trump junior the other night? >> it's more of a thoughtful teleprompter message, you might be taking away from the appeal that he has with so many people. >> someone said they were surprised to the degree the convention was playing to the base this week and not to the middle. >> did that surprise you? >> yes, but the reason is, he doesn't have the base in the sufficient numbers that he needs for the election. you need almost all of them. when ted cruz got on that floor last night and said vote your conscience, vote your principles and values, that was a message i don't think donald trump shares or values. >> if he were a more traditional candidate. mike pence -- put him on the tickets, because it would have been too christian, too
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conservative. but in style is where he makes up. >> right, he's an asset for donald trump. that's why it was an opportunity cost, because it obscured mike pence's message, which was a unifying message. >> the gentleman on the left there, john zito, former nbc staffer, who who is now helping the committee and campaign do all the stagecraft, which might look easy to you, but whether it's the av, the timing of the music, the timing of the balloon, it is a massive production. >> we all know from experience how poorly, how wrong it can go. >> i'm looking forward to peter teal a tonight. there's going to be so much of breaking down of donald trump and how that goes, but this is a chance to have people who the
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all public is anxious to hear from in the last several weeks and months, a different kind of guy you're used to, but i don't know if he -- >> we could say, the nbc news political tesk has put out a statement, that peter teal will announce that he is proud to be dwa. now that's a sound check there. i love the media.
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>> i love ohio. thank you, everybody. i love -- and they've been doing a great job, and the police are doing an incredible job. thank you very much. >> by the way, we have heard that from so so many people. most people in this country are recently becoming aware of. and in his remarks, he's going to justify heads -- and pointing to the anti-war views. they use the word "justify" as if he needs to, which is the -- throughout tyler? >> i was going to throw a
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jumpball, and maybe to john harwood. usually coming out of a can questions there's a lot of good feeling, do you think that will happens? >> i don't think the first three days -- however, the fourth night of the convention, the last night, when the nominee gills his speech, is about many 5% of the value, so if donald trump has a tremendous performance tonight, he might get one. i think everythingo
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everybody thought or anticipated has turned out to be completely wrong. >> we all analyze knolls thought it. this season, everything that we thought about, the opposite seems to have happened. >> can i just take credit? i was really wrong. >> everybody was. most of the polls have been been work -- irnts tonight i'm going back up to wisconsin, and a personal anecdote, i immediate a lot of people who have historically -- these are out of work or underwork laborers. they say i'm going for trump. i've always voted democrat. i'm a union guy or woman, but they're achery about their wages.
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i know peter a bit. i will say this. the interesting thing about teal tonight, is that he'll rayly an stream libertarian. they're not, there's a lot of differences, and really discussing to see how he -- mittle voters to the gop at all. >> you know what think say about libertarians? >> what? >> conservatives who want to smoke pot. gary johnson is in the race to be president. there's some question about whether they might people voters away? >> there's a lot more
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third-party, fourth-party voters we think. it had be fairly even by from donald trump and hillary clinton, sort of the two sides of the coin. the pot side that you and carl were reserve to, the small government side tents to attract the republicans, and how gary johnson is ultimately going to be defined in its core will determine exactly what that breakout is. >> people -- carl went to u.c. boulder, so you talk to him -- >> i knew that was going to come up. >> he travels with a bag of cheatos. >> to tyler's point on the convention bounce. pew has some numbers. a week after the average a poll
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is about five points, almost five for republicans, going from the convention to the week after. >> the big challenge though, here, like four years ago is that the conventions are immediately back to back. there's no time for the party to usual its bounce, because hillary this weekend will announce her running mate, step all over the aftermath of the republican convention. >> thanks so much for being us there you. 10:00 p.m. eastern time right here on c innocence, you can see his acceptance speech for the gop nomination. over to sue herera with your news update. here's what's happening this hour. the soldier is believed to be one of the 30.
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security is heightened as brussels celebrate their national day. that turned out to be a false alarm. by a mosquito bite in the constitutional united states. and it's that time of year again. you that's up from 68 billion last year. "power lunch" is back after a quick break.
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on
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ones. mario draghi was probably the most important here, definite u-turns especially the short end. obviously connections to the central bank threats that are going on. if you look at one week of tens, we reverted back to the same range, even though we traded up to 73 yield in the two-year and got up to 162 and 10s, back into the range, because gnarl i don't draghi didn't surprise, but he didn't take anything away, either. you can clearly see the on volatility. bri brian, back to you. welcome in bruce van song. he's ceo of citizens financial. the stock is up today. bruce, thank for you joining us, and thank you for your patience.
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we talked about bond yields. how do bond yields at this level impact your business? also growing or fee -- so we're pleased with the results we put up today. we had about 3.5% operating leverage, which is really good in this environment. do you want the feds to raise interest rates? but anyway, we're not going to rely on that. we're going to continue to execute our plan. >> tie the fed to your customers. what is the federal reserve racing rates by one quarter of
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1% mean for you and mean for the loans that your customers get? >> well, i think it's very modest impact. >> we've had unprecedented period of easing. that's been good for companies, it's been good for individuals to repair their balance sheets and lock in some longer term low-cost financing, but, you know, i think over time, it also disadvantages savers, and we have to get back to a period of normalcy. >> how important is your fee income, bruce, to your overall profit picture? and where does it come from? and how will it grow? >> the fee is confide important. that is an area were looking to invest and build up on the consumer side, we need to penetrate better the customer base with wealth advisory products. so we're adding advisers, financial consultants, licensed bankers and the branching. we're investing in our mortgage business, so we're out hiring
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mortgage lone officers, and on the commercial side we're hiring both coverage bankers, as well as capital markets folks. >> bruce t. a pleasure, thank you. >> okay. my pleasure. still ahead, the justice department cracking down on so-called dark money. robert frank has more on this fascinating. >> from monets to mansion, justice issic contraing down on the trophy assets of the rich. we're going to follow that dark money when "power lunch" returns ♪ odds are you won't leave to see tomorrow ♪ [child speaking indistinctly]
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many fear the rise of dark money essentially going to politicians from secret sources. they think it's a dangerous thing, so the justice department is cracking down. rocket frank here with more on the story of art and a billion bucks from bal aismalaysia. >> federal prosecutors are moving to seize more than a billion in assets in the u.s. they include a prized monet, l.a. mansions, and all the rights to the "wolf of wall
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street" movie. the justice department say the assets were purchased with money allegedly stolen from one ndb. many of those were purchased by a high-profile financier, called joe low, who splashed money arou around. a 31 million manhattan, and it's $17 million tear-down house in beverly hills. and justice says that his movie, that "wolf of wall street" film was funded with more than 100 million from one mdb. justice seeking all future profits.
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they thain jo-lo and sat next to the stepson of malaysia's prime minister. the question is whether the justice has the right and ability to do that. >> the movie was way too long, by the way. who is jo-lo and what is his connection? >> he's a very good friend of the prime minister's stepson. the two of them did a lot of deals -- >> he's a conduit. you go to certain parts of the world. i cause them professional introducers. >> you're the rich guy. i'm the guy that you want to invest with, and tyler, you just get great stuff just by introduces him to me.
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on were in supported in part by guys like this. >> jo-lo. >> how lo can jo-lo -- >> probably got one there, too. jeff curry will join us in an exclude. whether the gold rally is here to stay. that and more is next. you both have a
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welcome back. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. the big headline tonight, donald trump, eight hours to go exactly. the lineup of who is speaking tonight to show you just how much business has become mainstream and cnbc's dare i say mainstream, all four of those people frequent guests on cnbc, pet peter thiel. tom barracks, ivanka, and donald trump on trump tuesdays. peter thiel, the first gop
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delegate to come out and say he's gay, according to sources. s. >> hi i. michelle, none of that protest activity we saw out in the streets yesterday. the expectation is some of the protests might heat up as we go through the evening. meanwhile, today, that really means that people have the opportunity to do what they came here to cleveland to do, which is a lot of schmoozing and politicses. we caught up with the executives from facebook here, making a big push at the republican national convention. look at the facilities that they have set up. they are schmoozing there, offering drinks, offering facebook live opportunities, and we tall to joel kaplan about his
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outreach on behalf of facebook to conservatives, particularly on wake of that flap of facebook live, whether that feed was tilted against conservatives. inch we want everyone to come on facebook, whether republican, democrat, we want them to xhun and communicate their ideas with the people that matter to them. es. >> reporter: now, joel told me they have seen 9 million americans on facebook commenting on the election so far this year. they said that's generated 2.9 billion different interactions, likes and comments, that sort of thing, so a big social media convention out here this year. they are having the opportunity to engage, unlike some other companies who have seen them pull back they'll be at the
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democratic national convention last week in -- >> they have decided to dive in. so a lot riding in when presumably we'll get tore clair. kirsten hughes here, a republican in massachusetts. and peter navarro, good to hear you. >> are we going to hear more about the economy tonight? a lot so far has been about newt gingrich, a very dark speech about how vulnerable were to terrorism in their eyes. what do you think? >> definitely. look, the whole convention is about growth and how do you get more jobs? higher wages?
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we've had a great economic success story, so that last night was about the economy hillary clinton and barack obama never managed to do that, and cause it to go up. that means higher wages, means more people working particularly for minorities and youth. we'll hear some of that as well as the other problems that the country is facing. >> he has a gap between the number of republicans he's got supporting him versus how many he needs. that was on full display with ted cruz last night. what do you think the audience needs to hear from him to bridge that gap. he hasn't given a lot of specifics. >> i think it's about exciting the base, which has been happening throughout the week. i think you keep those two issues up front all the time,
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about keeping america safe, keeping food on the table. b but. >> tone. >> tone is very important. i think you have seen that tony carry throughout the week. >> peter, as one of his advisers, we haven't heard a lot about lately, is he going to bring those up tonight? >> he's going to talk about trade, and he set the trade speech in pittsburgh, it was a landmark speech, basically what we have is an economy growing at half the rate of -- historic norms. 1.8%. the biggest drag on that growth rate is a trade definite at this time close to $800 bill i don't want. but what donald trump has said is that we are going to use
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tariffs an a negotiating tool to force cunning like china, he's called them the biggest cheater. he's right, to force these trading partners to stop the currency manipulation. illegal subsidies to stop the intellectual property theft that takes $300 billion out of our economy. you'll hear that very clearly. it ties in with national security. if you don't have a strong economy, you don't have a strong military, you don't have strong national security. >> the talk of tariffs on chinese imports, whether targeted or widespread is by far the most controversial. can he thread that needle like peter is suggesting? that it's really fair trade rather than free trade, he can do that net not hurt the economy? >> i think he can. he's talked about free trade and talked about the need for commerce to occur, and talked a lot about the trade deals s. you big megatrade dealings that are so heavily lawyered not being
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done well. >> but that's not going to scare business inch done in a way that creates more growth and very positive for the business community. think of the tax reform proposal, think of obama came out tomorrow and said he was interested in the taxes being too high on business. that would be very positive. trump can do that and emphasize it. >> the model here is ronald reagan in the '80s. he came out with 100% tariff, because japan was cheating on his trade agreements. we have that order of magnitude. i have done studies on this. the 45% tariff was right on china, but we don't want to use them. we just want to say this is what we will do if you don't play fair. >> the goal is growth and free trade. >> focus will be lots more jobs, better wages, and get america to work. i think that's a positive message. >> this is donald trump just about a half hour ago, his daughter ivanka doing the blocking, as we call it, the
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staging, as he gets ready for tonight. really extremely involved, guys, with exactly how it's all going to work. he's a tv guy, and obviously a showman. we'll see if he gets the tone right tonight. >> i think he will. >> a pleasure, all of you. tune into our speaker report tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. brian? let's zero in on the commodities trade. meantime, goal up about 4% just this month as one of the big surprises to the year.
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as we like to say, being long gold is being short politics. that will be a good hedge. >> do you hate the fundamentals? is it just a risk trade? a headline trade? >> barring the type of uncertainly and the spillovers that it could potential generate, such as a big deval out of china, barring that we think gold trades sideways here. and we've gone back into the 13, 20 rage, that's because the underlying fundamentals on a tactical main case basis don't support pushing up -- >> we've talked about oil extensively and about the risk
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to higher prices. the risk is that greatest of american instincts. the moment prices tick up, production starts to go up as well. what's your view on oil? it's appeared weekly. >> when you look at the uptick in drilling, it could lead to an extra how to 70 barrels a day. that will not materially alter the balance. >> why does the price come back down? >> we've had some big surprises out of iran. we've had some surprises out of the iraq. you put that in the context of the sharp declines in u.s. and chinese production. it means that we're still a ways off before we see a significant deficit that could push this market sustainably higher. >> do we have a recent bias? i found the average dollar-adjusted -- inflation adjusted price to oil is about $47, $48 a barrel.
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you may have slightly different numbers, because you're smarter than i am, but my point is this is where oil has seemed to want to live. >> i would argue the line has been drawn in the foop sand. gone up to 136 on and tests it a couple times. inventories are still really high. >> do you hear this from clients, and they'll say, well, oil has been above 100 twice in the past seven years, so it must want to go higher. >> the world was a very different place. i would like to point out the dollar was substantially weaker. the growth in emerging market with his much stronger. going back and revisiting that environment that we had over the previous decade will be really difficult. our long run, long-term terminal value we put at $50 a barrel. >> that's it. 50 bucks. >> and i think the risk are to the down side. >> i need a headline, jeff, not jeff curry says oil will kind of stay here, but that's your view.
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>> that's our long-term view. near term i think there are risks to the down side. wince we -- nigeria we had a cease-fire, problems with that, but you stay down at revenue levels, you end up with likely a resolution there. libya announced today they're likely to emopen up the ports. you bring that supply back into the markets, creating downside risk. >> in a segment coming up you're not involved, "street talk" we do stock calls. today a couple names are upgrades based on two analysts' views that natural gas will go higher next year? >> agreed we've seen a sharp decline. one has to do with the associated gas with the oil, with the drop in drilling for oil, gas supplies are coming down. to replenish that you have to go to dry, gassy fields. you need prices in that 350 price range.
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>> you think we'll get there? >> back in the forward curves. >> quickly commodity best idea would be -- or one of your best ideas would be what? >> selling copper. >> selling copper. lots of supply coming on. we like the revenge of the low-cost player, mean peru. weakness in demand in china. you put it all together, surprises 5,000 a ton, target 4,0 4,000. >> jeff curry, thank you very much. i do appreciate it. here is your menu for the rest of the show. kentucky governor matt bevin, and the big night and what he hopes to hear. and live from the american century golf tournament, sir charles himself. charles barkley will be on our program, and why he thinks why kevin durant may be trying to cheat hi ways to a title. even if charles barkley thinks tiger woods will ever return to government. all that and much more.
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the dow could end a nine-day winning streak. we are back right after this. [music stops] [whistle] [rock music playing] [record scratch] announcer: don't let e. coli mosh with your food. an estimated 3,000 americans die from a foodborne illness each year. you can't see these microbes, but they might be there. so, always separate raw meat from vegetables. keep your family safe at foodsafety.gov.
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enis really built into theat foundation of the company. whole foods market is engaged with pg&e on many levels, to really reduce energy and reduce our environmental footprint. for a customer like whole foods, saving energy means helping our environment, and we can be a part of that. helping customers save energy is a very important part of what pg&e does. we can pass those savings on to the environment, the business, and the community. pg&e really is an expert in saving energy, and that partnership is extremely exciting. together, we're building a better california. hi took to the stage a few moments ago doing a mike check, checking out where and you have cameras are.
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here with me up in the booth is kentucky governor matt bevin, who we were eager to have on, because you have actually held a job before you became a politician. i was an asset manager? >> yes, in the asset management business, but also an entrepreneur on a number of fronts. >> your great great great grandfather started the company that maled bell that used to be the closing bell at the new york stock exchange until about 15 years ago. >> that is correct. it was there for many years. unfortunately it wore out, but again a lot of ties into business. donald trump is a businessman, about zero political experience. we often here we should have a ceo running the company, but running a company and running a country are two different things. a company are, you are for lack of a better word a dictator, you decide and when it happens. when you're a president, you have to deal with congress,
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hostile members of congress who don't want to complete your agenda. >> i heard the exact same argument. i never studied political science ever in my life. i took no political path, this no political aspirations. everybody saidibled not be a governor for the exact same government. how many of our founding fathers had a lot of political experience? few, if any. the reality is we need leadership and it's something we've been lacking for a long time. what can a business person bring to leadership? >> they bring experience, they bring decisiveness, the ability to delegate, and the greatest leaders are those who know how to hire well, who are as hand off as possible, but hands on as dpe necessary. >> you're making the case he has a skill set that can transfer. what does he have to do tonight?
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he hasn't given a lot of specifics about policies. he still has a big gap to make up with establishment republicans who are concerned about him, who say he's got a lot of conviction, but we don't exactly now hoe his's going to achieve these ideas. >> he absolutely wiped the slate clean by doing what is frankly wise, you don't get overly specific. i think tonight we'll hear much more substantive commentary. i imagine there will be the beginning of more meat on the bones and frankly it's time for that. tars possible? i think he'll talk specifically about iran, the ways in which we work with people who frankly the average voter is concerned about this. while some may not, your average person on the street is more aware of things than we give
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them credit for. >> are you concerned about his putting a condition on protecting a nato country if they haven't paid the bills. >> am i word about him drawing lines in the sand? we've gotten that silliness from our current president. i think he's more savvy than that. i think he's somebody who knows how to paint the parameters of what he's going to talk about without being overly committed. i'm nod a mind reader, i did not write his speech, but i imagine just as you said, he's hands on when it is appropriate to be, and we've seen so many of the people to who many he has delegated things. they are rock solid people. you look at his children. i am impressed frankly by the degree of professionalism that he is bringing to the equation. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. guys, we have a lot more coming up in the show. don't miss or coverage of the big people tonight. donald trump accepts the republican nominate for the president. a special live report here from
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the rnc starts at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. brian? >> michelle, thank you. up next, "street talk" someone maul-cap natural gas stock, analyst who says could jump 40%. the name is? coming up after the break.
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time now to street talk. analyst recommendation. a solo version yet again. chesapeake energy. tudor pick terr hold, upgrading. they note that chesapeake has suffered from a leverage since the commodity downturn. no kidding. but a positive outlook for natural gas heading into next year should be an up move for the stock. they say management deserves some credit for all the balance sheet moves, but remember, the expected move up in natural gas should help the value of their hard assets. again as a trading play on a bullish natural gas bet. their target goes to chk from 8 to 13. stock 2 is two stocks and more natural gas calls. wpx energy and tarot resources both upgraded. he says he is now more
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comfortable than oil, and he noted to me in the e-mail, this is his first positive bias edward nat gas in nearly five years. he call antero a well-run producer which has been become too inexpensive to ignore. the antero target is 37. that's 40% up side seen coming on a.r. again that's antero. the third stock under the radar call of the day, engility holdings. suntrust starting conch of egl with a buy. four quick reasons for the optimism -- new management, a conspiracy book-to-bill ratio, and positive debt -- possible debt refinancing, which would help cash flow. their target on egl, $30. that's about 15% up side.
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"street talk" down. here's what's coming up. chipotle rocked. will that stock bounce back in the second half? that's a good question. some answers are coming up. on. medical doctor from cleveland clinic, watson, let's review the electronic medical record of the next patient.. no problem. it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait. that was quick. as part of our research, i also compared lab results with notes about prior treatments, then cross referenced it with thousands of medical journals. and i get the benefit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best treatments. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. you sound like a lot of medical students i know.
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hello, everyone. i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update this hour. they want to put the brakes on two mergers, claiming that humana and anthem mergers would be bad for mergers. >> they may increase the profits of aetna and anthem, but they would do so at the expense of consumers, employers and health professionals across the country, inflicting costs that cannot be measured in just dollars alone. >> the cdc says 400 pregnant woman in the u.s. has evidence of the zika virus, up from 346 a week ago. it also reported three more babies born in the u.s. with birth defects linked to the virus, bringing that total up to 12. the man who could be the democratic nominee for vice president head roundtable discussions across virginia today. senator tim kaine's first stop was in arlington, where we talked about immigration reform. president obama welcoming the world series champion kansas
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city royals to the white house. the team presented the president with a jersey emblazened with his name and the number 44, for of course being the 44th end of the united states. 44th president of the united states. let's get to jackie? >> oil prices are down on the day. hitting new lows as we speak. certainly part of trade today, but also what we've got saying for some time. oil turned positive, and today they're selling on that stream playing the technical ranges. that's a pattern that's expected to continue. back to you, tyler. >> thank you very much. we are about 7 1/2 hours away from donnell's speech, but we saw some huge fireworks last night as ted cruz took the stage. >> voice your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the
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ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the constitution. >> basically booed off the podium last night, mr. cruz. let's bring in larry sabato. he's contended all conventions for both parties since way back in the year i graduated from the university of virginia. larry, great to see you. >> good to see you. >> this is not the first fractured convention we have seen or that you have seen, '76 with reagan and ford, '72, '68, even '80, kennedy and carter, about you if you had to put, professor a letter grade on how much this convention from a to f has helped donald trump, would it be an a or an f, or an incomplete? >> well, it's' incomplete until you hear the biggest speech of the week, which is of course the nominee's speech, but tie le, i would have to say that the
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midterm grade is leaning toward a c-minus or d-plus. this has not been a unifying convention. i think a lot of bad messages have been communicated to the public about donald trump and the republican party, so it hasn't been helpful. he needed a lot of help. he is not the front-runner. >> what are those bad messages that you think the public has picked up? >> well, obviously discord within the ranks. ted cruz is just one piece of it. cruz was more or less the runner-up, but john kasich, the governor of ohio, has not set foot in the convention hall, so donald trump and the trump campaign and john kasich have been fighting. most of the other republican office holders at senior levels who have been there have been happy to talk about what they don't like about hillary clinton. but i sure have heard precious
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little about what they like about donald trump. how does trump get to 270 electoral votes. what states does he have to win? which states can he not afford to lose? >> tyler, the easiest way is to get there and carry all of romn romney's indicates. that's 206 electoral votes. e does he get the extra ones? he has two pathways. he can either switch from the democrats, florida, pennsylvania and ohio. you pull those together with romney states, you have 273 electoral voids. much more likely, i think, and it's not likely, is that he would sweet the rustbelt states. add pennsylvania, ohio, michigan
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and wisconsin. where does that put him? >> so there are really two paths you see, one involves winning florida. the other involves a swath of states i know you know, and michelle caruso-cabrera. larry kudlow, do you think that larry sabato has it right in describing the path to 270 for mr. trump? >> tyler wants to know in larry has it right in terms of the two paths that he has to beating hillary clinton? >> sorry about the sound. larry, great to see you. sill believe last night mike pence saved the republican party. and i think the ted cruz
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business. cruz gave a career-ending speech. i've never seen republicans that are getting up and screaming and booing the guy on the speaker stand, and it wasn't just a new york delegation, it was the entire floor. that could have been the doom of the gop right there. however, ten or 12 minutes later, mike pence stands up and gives a terrific speech.
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what you see is people starting to applaud. the applause grew louder, started jess at a timing with their hands and all of a sudden they're on their feet. the entire floor was on their feet cheering mike pence. he changed the whole part attitude right there. larry highlights this is actually now a state by state race. talk about the key states. can he swing florida? can he swing ohio? pennsylvania? i think he's basically got those right. by the way, he's got to give a great speech.
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and let me say parenthetically mr. trump has to show to americans watching, we can fix there. he also has a good chance in florida. he's a -- remember he blew out rubio in florida, but i think he's very strong, and regarding arizona and north carolina, so forth, they're running evening, so you can't predict that, but the big difference this time is really i don't know about wisconsin.
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trump gets the disenchantment of the middle class and the others don't. >> that's what i'd like him to pick up on. to the disaffected wage-earner, i'd like to hear you respond to that. s give me a sense of how he gets on the podium tonight. >> his bet, tyler, is very, very clear. he's betting that trump will lose and lose rather badly, and he will rise from the ashes, he being ted cruz in 2020.
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chanced it in the primaries, but i don't think that's fixable. i don't think the split is fixable this year, and there are it is. >> can he doening to blunt toss key states? i'm thinking, is it tim kaine, the governmentor of virginia, whom you must know? is it ed rendell, the former governor of pennsylvania. >> it won't be i had rendell. i don't think the clintons have a good relationship with them. does he have any special appeal? no. i think he solidifies virginia, that's off the table i agreed
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with larry kudlow about mike also pence's speech. and goodness knows, he needs it, but a vice presidential candidate cannot transform. >> no, larry, that's right. >> look, you're always right. all i'm saying is last night, one of the most extraordinary things i have ever seen. you have them all screaming and booing. i don't believe cruz will ever cover. i believe it was a career-ending performance. however, regarding trumps, please everybody read my friend/producer jake novak's cnbc.com's column today.
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he walks through the middle income wage-earner's problem, who haven't had a raise in 20 years plus. >> that is correct. >> trump got that. cruz never got that, and hillary certainly doesn't get that. >> we've got to leave it there. the two larrys, we appreciate it. and a michelle for good measurer. thanks. stay with cnbc tonight, as they wrap up with the nominee, donald trump will take the stage right here on cnbc. just ahead, we go live to lake tahoe, nevada sir charles barkley will weigh in on business, politics, golf and everything else on his very active mind. you don't want to miss this. we'll be right back. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tid of it. are yoentirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade.
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she's sitting down with one of the best players in the nba, and maybe broadcasting history -- charles barkley. >> certainly a man not afraid -- >> i love that introby my man. >> i have to ask, last year you
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finished second to last. >> that's my only goal. we've got to find something. >> apparently we have the same golf swing. inch golf is the only sport they have people driving around giving you alcohol. so you should go out and have fun. some say you had aspirations to be the governor of alabama? >> they wanted me. i didn't -- i'm on vacation for the next four months. that's better than working every day. politics has gotten so disgusting for me how the republicans and democrats just disagree on every subject. first of all there's nobody in the world that you disagree with every second quarter on.
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then you go to the pundits afterwards, and they're like all democrats, all the republicans, it's just silly gone to the point -- i feel back for the american people. the notion thats disagree i think -- i've always voted democratic, and i'm probably going to do it again more than likely. this notion that we have these politicians speak, then to have these pundits on television are just silly. >> the first dream team, and a lot of great nba players are not going to rio. partly because of injury. partly because i assume they're about the health care scares or
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other reasons. >> a great question. i think it depends on a couple things. if i planned on having kids, i think it's something you have to consider. one of the great doctors in the world who i admire and respect is sanjay gupta. i spent time talking to him about the zika virus. he told me if you plan on having kids, when you come back from brazil, you know, that thing can stay dormant in your system up to a couple months, so i can understand young guys who think they might have kids in the future, something they have to consider. i can't answer your questions fair, to be honest where you. the olympics are the coolest sport in the world, but this is probably the toughest decisions -- the golfers had to make that decision. let me say this. i'm not going to lie to you. i canceled the olympics last week myself.
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so i was afraid of the zika and the violence. i was supposed to go do some reporting,ened i canceled. so i guess i'm a wuss, too. >> the olympics will be less finish, because you're not there. >> it's a barkley love-fest. you're welcome for that introduction. we call it ad-libbing in the business. do you think tiger woods will ever play again? >> i hope so. i think he made a great decision not to play for the entire year. i want to see tiger come back. i think he's the greatest golfer who ever lived. no disrespect to jack nicklaus. i think he's got to be encouraged by phil mickelson being 46. last sunday was the best golf i have ever seen in my life between henrikstenson. golf is better when tiger is playing. >> we also have stef curry here
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as well. >> he's a hell of a golfer, not a bad basketball player, either. me'll have a pretty awesome team when the season rolls around. you criticized kevin durant. >> i was disappointed in him. the nba is better when we have competitive balance. i didn't go crazy. i just said i was disappointed. kevin is a great player, he's a great kid, but in the nba we need competitive balance. we need more stars spread out over the entire nba. what we can't have is -- >> you think the nba is going to step in? >> we're going to. i guarantee we'll have a lockout next summer. first of all, this is business. they're not going to let these players ruin their business. i will by anybody they'll have a lockout. i saw pat riley talking about having a franchise tag. listen, there's no way in the world these nba owners are going to let these super-teams
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continue. we're going to get locked out next summer, which is good for me. i golf and fish every day and i get paid during a lockout. one question that flows out of what players have been signing for this summer, i know -- i mean, you made nice money and not this kind of money. 153 million bucks. never been an all-star. ryan anderson, son who he is, charles. timothy mozgov and didn't play in the last three games of the finals. what do you think of the money? >> let me just say that. that's good work if you can get it. >> yeah. >> you know, to be honest with you. between tnt and espn, we pay -- the new television deal we're paying a billion dollars a year. now the new deal starting this year, paying $2.5 billion a year. so the money's there. hey, listen, man. god bless these players.
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you know, i told my mom, i got mad at her for having me too soon and god bless these players. the money is available because of tv revenue and can't hate. i made more money than the great bill russell and those guys. >> charles, before you go, on back of that, what would charles barkley in the peak year sign for in today's dollars? what would your contract be today? seriously. what do you think you would get? >> well, the max guys are making $30 million a year. so, i always tell guys, if i played today, there's no doubt in my mind i'd be going to the game in a spaceship. >> charles -- >> that's why you're charles barkley. >> guest host with us any time. in new york, come by. >> i tell you what. if you give me some good financial advice, count me in. >> you're in. you're on. done. susan, charles, thanks. we'll be back. or sp fd a bathroom?
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trading nation time. let's set you up for chipotle's big report after the bell. we'll look at the technicals. bob, what are you looking for from cmg tonight? >> i think the important thing,
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brian, that the market and i are looking for is an improvement in the operating trends for the company since the end of the quarter, especially. you know, during the july period, our expectation is that the company would have seen some improvement in the course of the period when they got very aggressive with their promotional news and their chip-topium program. the problem is the issues affecting it are like roaches out of the woodwork. the tweets of a food bourn illness and it haunts the company and headline risk of sales is really frustrating. >> watch that top line number. ari, we have gone back to three years ago. how do the prices look? >> brian, investing's too tough to buy bearish trends. we recommend staying away from it. you see it by the slope.
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still falling drastically. finding some support at $400 here and on the upside if you do get a bounce, limiting to 470 where it comes into play. sell it there. >> little bit short there. we have to leave it there. thank you. big night tonight with that. bearish technically. go to trading nation.cnbc.com. i'm going to wisconsin. i'll see you monday, tyler. >> see you monday. >> tyler is still here. back after the break. my mom loves givinmedvic she even givese advice...
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just little more than seven hours before donald trump officially accepts the nomination tonight, tyler. can he look presidential enough? can he sway the many doubters in the republican party that he's the guy they should vote for in november? >> most interesting thing you have seen all week, michelle? >> oh, oh. the ted cruz moment last night that was unbelievable. the booing and just -- i mean, these are normally very staid people. as larry said, republicans for goodness sake and screaming and yelling and so furious. it was crazy. >> do you agree with larry that
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that was a career ender for cruz? >> depends on donald trump's future. he really threw it down last night. >> i agree. michelle, we'll be watching tonight. 10:00. excuse me. the dow is down more than 100 points. thanks, everybody, for watching "power unfortunately." "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody. and welcome to "closing bell" lye from the floor of the republican national convention in cleveland, ohio. where bill peter-teal is warming up behind me. >> oh, yes. i'm bell griffeth at new york stock exchange. this is as quiet as it's going to be for you on the floor there at quicken loans arena. you know, donald trump promised fireworks and a captivating

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