deals, where the tv plays into that is interesting. >> car pool karaoke. that is the other big news of the hour in case you missed it. apple buying a series based on the successful cbs karaoke brand. the call starts shortly. thank you for being here to work throughout earnings with us on closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. >> we have team coverage on every single story from apple's big beat to twitter's huge miss and pa nne are. a solid corner. plus bob peck who downgraded twitter two weeks ago, nice call, bob, on the red phones. plus, earnings not the only story we're following tonight. the dnc getting under way. donald trump closing in on hillary clinton. wall street titan will tell us why that could cause a 20%

correction for stocks. i'm in for melissa lee. tonight we start with apple. the stock surging on a big top and bottom line about it. we just sat down with the ceo tim cook moments ago. let's get straight to josh with the headlines. josh? >> sarah, i did sit down with ceo tim cook to go over the quarter. let me give you the highlights. he said he feels fantastic about how the iphone did in q-3. 40.4 million un iits. cook's point to me was that iphone demand was actually even better than what those sales might indicate because he took down that smart phone inventory by about four million units in the quarter. he also says he feels bullish about that iphone franchise looking ahead. he pointed at the q-3 that the switchers from an zroidroids hi record. iphone se he pointed out that, is the latest iphone, the four

inch device, is attracting a whole new group of users to the ios system. and as for other products, ipad about ten million. that is a product still under pressure. cook telling me this is the first time in ten quarters it has shown revenue growth. services revenue popping 19% to $6 billion. that is increased the area of focus for investors. cook telling me he expects services revenue, that seg ment, to be the side of a fortune 100 company by next year. he said growth is up nearly 40%. apple music, i cloud all growing. finally, i want to touch on greater china. did you see that down about 30%. cook saying that mainland china this fiscal year is down about 2%. the point being they are tough comps and economic challenges. he still feels really about about china. they're not backing off their investment one about it. recently opening the 42nd store in china. >> thank you very much, josh. let's trade apple on the desk. karen, you're the only one that

actually owns it. >> well, i affirm. yes. long. you know, there's a lot to like in. this a lot of the numbers look pretty good. china thing was a little of a fly in the ointment. the other thing is the apple call is often very different than what we see in the headlines. i want to wait bring get excited about there to hear what they have to say. so far, it looks pretty good. even though the stock came in i think with lower expectations. so this is kind of a beat. i'm surprised it's not up a little more. >> are you impressed, guy? >> you should be impressed. i it this iphone numbers are g even the mac numbers were actually better than the disastrous numbers i thought people were looking for. i'll say this great quarter, the whole thing. if you look at it from a technical point of view, look at a chart since last may when it topped out at 132, you have a series of lower lows and lower highs since then. if the stock were to be able to close above 105, then maybe we're finally breaking out to the upside for the first time in about let's call it 18 months or. so but in my opinion, in order

for this to really be off to the races, it's got to get above 105 on the upside. >> it's all about the expectation, too. right? you can take the negative side and say revenues were down. and maybe the margins are not as good. tim cook is still saying -- force. >> and forecasting another down quarter. >> and talking about china and how the sales were down and putting kind of a lipstick on it saying well it was constant currency and all the comps. those are the negative. that being said, because the expectations were so low, because coming into this quarter people didn't expect much, it's probably enough for the next 90 days to apple -- for april toll sustain the levels. the way i would trade it, i wouldn't buy it up 5%. if you got pullback day, i would look at it to buy for trade going into next quarter because it's probably enough to keep it up. >> and now with the highs up 6%, does it entice you any? you are looking at margins? >> listen, i think like karen said, expectations were very low heading into. this the stock had very, very

poor sentment. it's been down 27% since the highs in 2015. there is really nothing in there other than stabilization. i don't think you can look to the margin guidance that they suggested. listen, let's see what they say on the call about the se contribution to the iphone next shift and what that means for the margins. i don't think you'd like to see that having a negative impact on that expensive getting more units. the only thing i say this is probably a good piece of news. i'm not a huge buyer of the whole services aspect of it. i think it will be a good thing. tim cook did say to lipton that he expects it to be this big thing. it was flat. that was really g you know why? last quarter they did $50 billion in total sales. it was 12% of sales. this year -- this quarter they did the same amount of service revenue and a greater percentage and much smaller number of the whole. the only business line that they have growing in this quarter double digits. >> let me ask you. do you ever look at this valuation and say, you know what? it's actually attractive.

you can pick out the negative things. this quarter, there was a lot to like about it. >> i think you'd like to see the asps grind down and up. we know that androids are average selling prices were $215 last quarter for apple. 645 and 605. let's get them down to a point. >> let's get them down to a point where you can see that rollout in emerging markets with this new price phone here and so, you know, that would get me excited about it. we know that there is big growth opportunities. like china over the last couple years, but like you said, china is massively decelerated here. it is flattened out a little bit. it is still growing. not the hyper growth they had. >> the cash pile growses to $231 billion. >> they fell quarter over quarter. that may be the first time that napd a very long time. >> still, we have a $231 billion cash cushion. why did soft bank go out and buy arm holdings which makes a lot of sense for april toll buy? >> apple doesn't have a history of making the acquisitions.

the acquisitions they made over the last year or, so really, i haven't seen much that have panned out. beats was supposed to be the greatest thing to music since the head phones started. and it hasn't panned out. apple still the iphone company. now the real question that investors have was last quarter was that the trough and we're on our way up or is this quarter just a blip? my feeling is that this is probably just a blip base ond some of the broader macro economic figures that i'm looking at. so i think there is enough here that if you're an apple bull, you're going to get a chance to take profits at higher prices. not enough to say we're going to new highs. >> on the cash thing that, is net cash number. that is a gross cash number. remember, they did issue debts, some of the cheapest debt around. and so that catch is off shore. you have to discount that as well. >> what can you say -- i should know that, shouldn't i >> where have you been? >> i've been sitting on this desk for a long time.

>> gets to the idea about streaming -- about services and streaming revenue and whether you need to val unite company as a services company. dan is not buying it. fwhut is what tim cook wants from investors. >> that's what he needs. otherwise, when -- listen, every company that's made products in the last 100 years at a certain point backs ubiquitous. sony comes to mind. if they can have that service end, then they're not as -- they lose at built to become commoditized as quickly. >> let's bring in apple's biggest bear, the man with the call. you downgraded the stock from a sell to hold yesterday. here's what you said on halftime report. >> you know, if we look at the management team that has not diversified revenues away n five years, the only product category they opened superintendent watch. that hasn't had material impact on the revenue. they squandered the domestic cash and buy back stock and we think that if we look at the next $100 billion in value, that's to the down side.

>> all right. so collin, what did you miss about the quarter? and what would you take it back now? >> in fact, if we didn't downgrade before the earnings we would be downgrading it right now. the thesis wasn't about the june quarter. we need some time for this to play out. give us until march. the whole concept here is that the seven upgrade cycle is going to be slower than what you saw for the 6s upgrade. you're looking at a company whose revenues declined 15% on a year over year basis. whose iphone revenues declined 36%. and you talk about greater china, things like that, you know, they do some of the tail inventory. they had some success with the launch of the iphone se. you saw asps drop below $600. you're seeing the lowest operating marge than we've seen in the last handful of quarters. so this is still a company that is dependent on hardware sales that hasn't diversified out of it. slightly better than expected. but nothing's changed in our

thesis. >> what exactly did we learn about the iphone 7 which is set to be released in september? what can you gauge in terms of what kind of demand they're expecting based on the guidance that they gave? >> that's an interesting question. right? we don't really know is the mix of demand for the seven and the guidance versus the se. but we do they're guiding gross margins to be at the lower end of expectation and below consensus. they're on the call now discussing about they see good strong switching demand from android platforms. and that's, again, part of the reason the asps are declining. >> collin, you said if you didn't downgrade yesterday, you would downgrade today off this quarter. there will be analyst that's will upgrade the stock on the back of. this i'm pretty sure. what do you think they see? i'm not asking you to play in this? >> there is a relief raly. most everyone has a buy on it. so there are very few people

throughout that are able to upgrade this right? >> or raise the price target. >> can you raise the price targets or for the most part, i point to september quarter revenue guidance is healthy. and it's decent. right? and again this is partly because of the se and partly because of the beginning of the launch. but we want to see the sustainability of the upgrade cycle and quite frankly, the real driver in in this quarter was the ipad. the i spad what helped drive the upside. >> karen? >> so a couple things. todd, i'm glad you actually came out the day before they announced. this time it didn't work out. good for you for doing it. i think you had an $85 price target. how do you get there? and does anything that came out today make you change that target? >> sure. if you look and think about apple, you know, what is the level of growth going to be over next fiscal year? we're modelling revenue to be down by about 1%. we also take the overseas cash and we don't see a tax holiday

coming any time soon. you want to apply a discount rate on that tax? we don't see it being deployed either. pick the number, 35%, 40%. we used 40%. and apply single digit multiple to what is left. eight, nine, ten times. that's the raise that you want to be paying for the company. that's the range in that range that market is willing to pay. because again, the level of earnings predictability given the dependence on the iphone, right, is unpredictable. and if you look at every other hardware maker of smart phones, they've all racked up on the shores at some point. we think that there will be demand for the iphone 10. but for the current iphone cycle over the next four quarters, we may have to see numbers coming down. didn't happen yet. you know, there is still always the december quarter. >> the stock rises to session highs at 7%. collin sticking to his guns. we'll see new a bit. >> correct. >> jump on that call. sticking with apple, check out how the suppliers did today. the whole chip space rallying on news that analog devices agreed to buy linear technology for

$14.8 billion. did the chip stocks signal this beat i wonder? >> i don't know if the chip -- well, in retrospect can you say. that i'll tell who you singled this, nathan and carter about two weeks ago. we talked about qualcomm. it's not just qualcomm. but that is one of the first. we talked about nvidia. but qualcomm to me after the move it's seeing is really interesting. in retrospect we should have seen this coming. we have seen quarters up where you see the suppliers do well and then april will have a down quarter. it is easy to say in retrospect. i still like qualcomm. >> but the sector has been right for consolidation. >> that's right. semiconductor consolidation is not about pcs or smart phones. it's about the internet of things. it's about industrial. we saw texas instrument traded at all time high today. hit tloil do with the categories i mentioned. the deal today, the analog devic devices, it's not about telecommunications or pcs or anything like. that and a lot of the altera deal of intel $17 billion late

last year, same thing. so a lot of the big semiconductors are looking to diversify away from this. >> are there any left in terms of names that could get bought out? >> sure. i mean, there's -- people have been talking about an ambrella or silicon labs. one thing i'll say is qualcomm is likely to be an acquirer of texas instruments. they've been sending 100% of the free cash flow to buy back stock and pay dividends. >> so the question then is -- this game has been going on for a bit. good for everybody who has been on it f you look at smh, the semiconductor etf, that thing is a hockey stick straight up. so the question is what else is left in this market? people have picked over this space looking for that consolidation. you know, i would be skeptical of buying an all time highs. >> all right. much more on apple as this conference call gets under way. it's no the just april that will we're all over tonight. we head to break, here's a look at twitter going in the opposite direction down more than 10%. tanking on earnings.

that call now well under way. we'll hear from the ceo jack dorsey in a bit. plus, panera rallying on earnings. how much of the fast casual giant benefit from chipotle's troubles? and later, as this man rises in the polls, one wall street heavy hitter says trump could be the very thing that sends stocks tumbling. he'll explain when a very busy earnings central "fast money" returns in just a moment.

announcer: when they test you, stand firm and move only when you hear the seatbelt click that says they're buckled in for the drive. never give up till they buckle up.

welcome back to "fast money." under armour tanking to the tune of 5%. earnings falling but still meeting expectations. sales growth fell below 20% for the first time in seven years. one bright spot was certainly sneaker sales. up 58% due to an endorsement by, of course, steph curry international. also pretty strong, karen. why the sharp move lower? >> it's expensive. there is nothing more than that. it has big expectations built in. the pe multiple is expensive. they need to grow at a decent clip to be able to grow into that. it wasn't terrible. i also though, i feel like every quarter they talk about sports authority.

every quarter. >> the bankruptcy. >> yes. >> but i do like going into kohl's. >> that is interesting. i don't know how i really feel about. that i don't know. koibt fine. then they also talk about taking the fao schwartz space which we were talking about. that is a very big, expensive piece of real estate. >> i think $20 million a year. >> and right next to the apple store. and two blocks away from the nike store. i guess they feel like they need that kind of big presence in a big tourist city like new york. okay, it's expensive. i would put it in the marketing category. >> and margins did narrow. they came in under expectations. >> it's good. but to karen's point. what they need is to grow at extraordinary pace. they've done it. you never want to bet against kevin plafrpg. he is kind of like howard shultz. one of the top ceos of all time. i would not bet against him. i would just wait for the stock to come in a bit before i bought it. maybe come down in valuation a bit.

we're taking property. >> sounds like you have a little man crush there. >> i have to tell you, you know what? >> i think the one take away that i see if a headline is the mixed shift towards footwear. that's where the marge rinz lower. that's where they're hoping to gain a lot of traction. just one other thing this stock gapped up in late april after they reported that q-1. and after that gap, it went down 28% over next month and a half or so. because of, i think a lot of the issues that you're talk bchlgt it since recovered. but this reversal is very similar to april. >> so it's down double digits over the past 12 months. it underperformed nike. you would play you would rather? >> sure. >> i mean, that's still a thing here. >> i would rather -- well, let's -- this is a tough one. i would rather nike. i think the valuation for under armour, you're talking about a stock that is 55 times forward earnings with eps growth probably closer to 25%, 30%.

so when revenue growth continues to dwinding, you have to wond whert valuation catch up? nike is a more reasonable valuation. >> yeah. and lulu lemon is having a much better year, up 40% so far this year. nick like lulu? >> no. not after the run it's had. of all the name, i think nike is the name to go w but all of them to me have still had quite a run. so i would be more in the profit taking mode in this particular sector. >> all right. as we head to break, here's a look at both apple and twitter. big after hours movers. apriling surging, twitter tanking. both of the conference calls are now under way. we'll bring you the highlights. y

you recommend synthetic over cedar? "super food"? is that a real thing? it's a great school, but is it the right the one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund.

ok. sure. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.

we've got a news alert here on the third points. kate kelly at 30 rock with more. what do you have? >> sayer yashgs just hot off the presses, typically colorful letter from dan's third points hedge fund. he compares the current investing environment to "game of thrones" particularly the battle of the bastards scene of this last season. his quote, surging enemies forming a seemingly impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, et cetera. use a sword and shield to fight your way out of a seemingly impossible situation is a good analogy. to what he's going through in the markets right now with the brexit vote being a very good example. just a couple things i want to point out though, essentially third point as eliminated the position in amgen, not seeing a heck of a lot movement in that stock after hours. but we'll see what happens tomorrow. they remain iffaler again. during the quarter, the top

winners were baxter international which has been up nicely. the republic of argentina, chesapeake energy, california resources and an unnamed pharmaceutical short. they talk at some length about baxter which they really like for a whole host of reasons. they're expecting higher value obviously and the stock going forward. they've been involved with it for multiple quarters now. and they just said that essentially it's very important to have a geo political outlook in this particular market. that positioning is really key as key as stock picking. that crowdedness and factor risks are problems that are significant now in a way that they have not been in the past. finally this is interesting. they think that energy prices bottomed out in february and right now they have a $1 billion long portfolio in energy primarily through credit. and one final thing, i promise this is the last. they have taken a significant private investment in the private chinese uber type of company. they think it's going to be one of the most major chinese

internet companies in the coming years. >> investing alongside apple. tim cook. kate kelly, thank you very much. quick thought? >> you know sh it's interesting to hear his take on the hedge fund space. he's actually -- he's an interesting writer. >> that "game of thrones" scene is epic. >> it is difficult. i'm interested on his take on the crowded trades as the hedge fund business gets more and more difficult. do the crowds have to leave the crowded trades? >> yeah, which is the positioning point. >> right. >> all right. still ahead on the show, twitter ceo jack dorsey making interesting comments here on the conference call just moments ago. we'll bring them to you next. and later, twitter isn't the only social media stock out with earning this is week. the biggy, facebook, reports tomorrow after the bell. we'll tell you some traders see a $21 billion move on earnings. much more "fast money" straight ahead.

where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

welcome back to "fast money." our josh lipton is at apple headquarters monitoring that call. we'll get to him in just a minute. later, jewulia borsten is on th twitter call. >> they are down 10% in after hours. the company has a revenue problem. slower revenue growth than expected and far lower than expected projected revenue for q-3. but the ceo jack dorsey focused the brief opening comments on the fact that user numbers are stabilizing. >> what makes our audience growth notable is we can see direct lit link between the product changes we made and our growth. we're making the right decisions in our products and gives us a foundation for future growth. >> the coo and cfo have been

addressing the questions on the call about slowing revenue growth. they cited the fact that there sin creased competition for social marketing budgets and that at which timer is still charging a premium for its ads which is slowing the growth. now as for questions about how twitter is going to fix their revenue issues, bane and noto stressed they're trying to improve advertisers return on investment by improving measurement and they had plenty optimism about how video will draw ad dollars from video ad budgets they haven't had access to before. >> people can now watch an event like the republican or democratic national conventions directly on twitter and talk about it in the same experience. partnering with the providers of the world's most live content to bring more and more of those events on to twitter together with the conversation. all this work is planting seeds for meaningful contributions to our continued growth. >> now noto and bane said they're seeing great demand for

the upcoming streaming nfl video deal. and for all those ads. now why those ads aren't going to be impacting those third quarter results is because they're only two nfl game in the third quarter. that's why the third quarter guidance is so much lower than expected. or at least one of the reasons. certainly a lot of conversation on this call about the guidance. back over you to. >> going to take a while to seat results. julia, thank you. for more on twitter earnings, let's bring in bob peck. he's been listening in on the call. what stood out to you so far? >> we're very much aware of the user growth problem that twitter has. this quarterer is about money problems. lack of demand if advertisers, increasing competition and being priced at a premium to competition. and that's weighing on the revenue growth. also this quarter, the profit which beat was almost 100% of one time ad. the stock based compensation. you add guidance was 15% lower on the top line. 20% lower on the bottom line. really our recent lowered expectations are coming true

here. users problems and money problems are not seeing any inflection points of what they tried so far has worked. we don't think m & a is anywhere on the table here. the ceo hasn't been there a year yet. >> kudos you to on the call. i know you took it down to 18 neutral. now we're below. that are you going have to revise this target lower again? >> i think the real important part for investors is we fleed to see what they're doing is working. they're getting traction with more users, they're getting more engagement and that will translate in better money. we'll see that through the data. >> bob, p.k. is it too early to say that jack hasn't worked out as the ceo? maybe he's spread too thin between square and twitter? is that an issue here? do we need to give him more time? >> we've been asked what is the grade we would give jack so far. the grade is incomplete. he hasn't been there a full year. he's just rekons constituted the board. so we think more of the end of 4-q we'll start to see what he's done so far has worked. then we'll see in 2017. >> bob peck, thank you very much

of sun trust. let's trade twitter. you as the question, you are looking forward at all to the results from the streaming deals they've inked? >> i used to be looking forward to a lot of stuff with twitter. as an an investor, i've been in this the last 12 months. it's disappointment after disappoint. after disappointment. we use the product. we see how valuable that platform s they kblt get any traction. they can't seem to grow revenues. my view is they shouldn't be focusing on user growth. they should focus on the users that are already involved. and are the heavy users of the platform. >> and it's not just us, dan. bernie sanders, donald trump, hillary clinton, so powerful. >> i think what they need is a little time. you think people want to come to jack for running two companies. they have a very, very competent bench there with bane and noto. they need time. >> but jack was the great hope, right? >> i just don't, listen, i think in a lot of ways, they probably set the stage for a future -- listen, go back to 2013 when

facebook was a teenager, okay? and at one point they had will 80% of their traffic was on the desktop. and then within a year, it flipped the opposite way. it was mobile. and there was an a-ha moment, they figured out what they had to do. they had to go in a certain direction. they're telling that you they're live and video and there's a transition going on right now. it may take a couple quarters. fwhut quarter, they only have two nfl games, maybe the one. we have olympics. we have the election. there say lot of stuff going on here. if they can start getting new users to come on and figure out the money, sell more ads to this stuff on video, not the old stuff they were doing just placing ads in there, there is stuff they can do. >> they haven't been able to did it yet. why now? >> it's probably a time thing. i don't know. >> you're still long just for the record. all right. >> still ahead, shares of apple are surging up 7% and at the highs on an earnings beat. we'll tell what you apple ceo tim cook just said about iphone sales after this break.

plus, it is day two of the democratic national convention in philadelphia. protests are breaking out as the role call begins. our reporter is on the ground. >> yeah, hi, sayer yachlt a tense situation developing here. let me show wlau is going on. up here we have bernie sanders delegates who gathered outside the security perimeter of the arena to yell at the democratic delegates as they go n and then back behind me over here, we've got a religious group who arrived here to yell at the bernie sanders protesters who are gathered here as well. so a little bit of conflict between these two groups. whether we come back, i'll take you up the hill and show what you the bernie sanders protesters are saying as they yell at the dnc delegates on the way into the arena. that right after this. [crickets chirping] [owl hoots]

announcer: if you don't fix them, sparks from dragging tow chains can cause a wildfire. and that could be scary. bye, smokey! only you can prevent wildfires.

welcome back to "fast money." let's check in on panera bread. the stock is rallying after they adjusted earnings and revenue and beat the streets. they also raised the guidance for the 2016 for a second straight quarter after halting that for the past three years. also we had mcdonald's reporting earlier today and some are thinking these are tough times for restaurants. one of the worst performers on the dow. the worst day in seven years.

mcdonald's and same-store sales missed estimates. i should point out that pa nara same-store sales outperformed. mcdonald's is going to come up against tough comps after introducing the breakfast in october last year. but they are introducing new initiatives. that includes an expended breakfast menu. they talk about brexit on the conference call which they have guided to impact the earnings in the third quarter. two to for cents on each share for the full year. 9 to 11 cents to be the impact of this and currency translation. >> susan lee, thank you very much. let's trade the fast casual side. did you see the note from steep wi l snechlt. >> not pane are. ax wins because chipotle loses. >> that's what i said. >> somebody lose, they lose, ding, hear the bell? listen, you say it's expensive

at 26 times forward earnings. i would say with 18, 19% eps growth, it's not that crazy expensive. they seem to be doing everything right. other people were doing everything wrong. i heard a story before that you were huge panera fan back in high school. >> yeah. >> what did they call new high school? >> panera sarah. >> that's great. >> i would get the broccoli cheddar in a bread bowl. >> what is a trade school? >> you learn something new. we didn't know. >> but seriously this whole sector is coming under some pressure. >> it is. i'm surprised actually. a lot of things set up nicely for the sector. people are employed. they have money and gas prices are relatively low. we should note that panero's ceo will be joining us on "squawk on the street" tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. let's get to the dnc. bernie sanders is urging supporters not to protest during the dnc. they're not listening. tell us what you're seeing. >> that's right. that's right, sarah. they're not listening to bernie

sanders. he asked supporters not to protest, not to create disturbances at the dnc and to back hillary clinton. but the crowd here outside the wells fargo center doesn't necessarily agree with any of those things lechlt . let me show you where we are. you see the fence line. this is as close as the protesters get to the building which you can see off in the distance there. and what we've got behind me and stretching down this path for about 100 yards or more are hundreds and hundreds of pro bernie sanders protesters who came out today to express their displeasure with hillary clinton. they're chanting hell no, we won't vote for hillary. they're chanting that the primary election is cheated and sto stolen from them. no matter what bernie sanders says, the folks here are definitely out here protesting, making voices heard. all very peaceful. i talked to some of the bernie sanders folks here today who say ultimately, they're not going to end up with hillary clinton and the bernie sanders movement is going to continue with or without bernie sanders himself.

they say they're prepared to take this all the way to the next election cycle no matter what bernie does as a politician. they say they understand he has to play the washington game. he has to get onboard with hillary clinton and the democrats in order to stay in the senate, but they say they're goal here is to make him one of most powerful senators in the senate, maybe the only senator who can call an army of marchers out into the streets. that will give him some negotiating power in the hillary clinton administration or a donald trump administration. a lot of the folks here very agnostic about the outcome of this election. >> very interesting. thank you very much. keeping an eye on the protests. the growing lack of competence in clinton appears to stretch from philadelphia to wall street. professionals are casting doubt on the former first lady. just 52% of respondents to the july cnbc survey believe the democratic nominee will prevail in november and that is a sharp drop from the 80% in april and june surveys. let's get perspective from the

wall street titan and former homeland security adviser, council chairman joseph granno. he also oversaw the merger between painwebber and -- you told us that the s&p 500 could fall 20% in donald trump becomes elected president. is that becoming an increasingly high probability? >> i doemen't recall saying. that i did say it is vulnerable for a 10% to 20% drop. the market is up 9.5% since march when i said that. primarily because of the united states being the safe haven. we had $400 billion come into the u.s. you had buy backs of 5 will $89 billion for corporate america. that's kind of buttressed everything. i'm more concerned today than i was then. primarily because of the isis situation.

the people are employed by tourism. i can see europe going into recessi recession. france has will 80 million tourists a year. italy, 48. this could be a big, big problem if we don't address it. now relative to clinton and trump, i think director come undressed her to honesty and statements in the past. he didn't want to go down as the individual in history to bring her down. did he hurt her. add to that e-mails from the dnc. very problematic particularly with sanders' people. trump is growing in the polls by 6% since the convention. my interaction with donald trump is maybe four time in my career. and those interactions told me a, he's a tremendous marketier. self promoter that is unequal.

but i must tell you, he's very bright. and his demeanor is always professional with me. my issue with him is you got to come down from this touch point emotion, forget the ii, i, i an now how, how, how. they kons constitute 95% of all trade in the world. well, resiprocity certainly will f. he attacks that model. so these things have to be thought out. >> so let me ask you then. the prevailing thought at this point at least from the people that i talked to is that these business unfriendly statements that donald trump has made global trade, unfriendly statements, we'll never get through. if he's elected. do you see that? do you think that the republican -- a republican house or will actually push these through. >> if donald trump gets elected and that could happen. i think he carries the congress

with him. the senate and the house. but because they will stop some of the far reaching causes of his, you're going to go back to polarization. what smoest important thing for our markets? confidence. and you have to reinstill confidence. you have to coalesce the country. we're going the other way right now. so we need that kind of brand of leadership. so if i were he, he certainly smart enough to surround himself with good people. the question on the table is will he list snen. >> all right. we have to leave it there. we're out of time. thank you. >> my pleasure. let's trade this. karen, thoughts? >> i don't know. it's so complicated to try to figure out who's going to win? are they going to control the house and senate? and what will the policies be? forget what they said, what are they trying to do? it's too difficult. i wouldn't try to trade around it actually. >> it is what it comes down to, not just the presidential race. >> right. >> it's almost an untradable event in the sense that because like karen said, the outcomes are multiple different outcomes.

you don't know which way it's going to go, what's going to get through, what's not going to get through wlochlt is going to carry what? it's almost impossible to make an investment decision base ond this. and we still have a long time until the election. we just came off the last convention where there generally is that pop, pop. maybe next week we get another pop. we'll see. >> all right. long time until november. >> yes. >> still ahead, apple shares are still soaring after hours. we'll hear what the ceo tim cook just said about the strong quarter. that is next. plus, you won't believe what traders are betting ahead of facebook earnings tomorrow. we have the details for you next. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. you'

can a toothpaste do evything well? this clean was like - pow. it felt like i had just gone to the dentist. my teeth are glowing. they are so white.

6x cleaning*, 6x whiteningá in the certain spots that i get very sensitive... ...i really notice a difference. and at two weeks superior sensitivity relief to sensodyne i actually really like the two steps! step 1 cleans and relieves sensitivity, step 2 whitens. it's the whole package. no one's done this. crest - healthy, beautiful smiles for life. welcome back. twitter shares are tanking. apple shares are surging after hours. we're all over the conference calls. but it's another social giant that could be grabbing traders attention tomorrow. what you are looking at? >> facebook. it's about 6% in either direction. that is $21 billion in market cap. what's interesting about that move it is less than the average which is has been 7%. the average since the company went public in 2012. the average move post earnings has been about 8%. for some reason, with the stock

at all time highs investors don't em a bit too worried. i'll make one point. apple, the implied move is 4%. it's up about 6 presidents.5% i market. if you think you're willing to make a directional bet, facebook options are actually kind of cheap relative to their historical self private earnings. >> apple and twitter both moving in those kind of -- >> twitter had implied move of 10%. >> so given the market has grown a lot, a lot, a lot, obviously, does that percentage have a same amount of market cap move? >> sure. listen, this is one thing we talk about this a lot. people have abandoned apple. it's down 25% from the all time highs. we had people move into a $350 billion facebook, a company that is supposed to have $25 billion in sales. there's a lot of risk. and that's why if you have a situation where option prices are cheap as they are in facebook right now, can you do stock replacement, can you hedge that, sort of thing. >> for more on all of that, options action, check out the full show, 5:30 p.m. eastern

time on friday. up next, apple at the highest level since back tend of april, april 25th. we'll get the latest from apple and twitter's earnings report right after the break. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.

month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it?

if you have liberty mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. sign up to immediately lower your deductible by $100. and keep lowering it $100 annually, until it's gone. then continue to earn that $100 every year. there's no limit to how much you can earn and this saving applies to every vehicle on your policy. call to learn more. switch to liberty mutual and you could save up to $509. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. aprple is trading near the high. jash has the call. >> a thriving growing ecosystem.

that is how tim cook is talking about his company on this call. analyst did ask him about that iphone product pipeline. here's what he had to say. >> we're not going to get into products or product transition. however, we have taken what we've learned from last quarter and we did see a number of encouraging signs. they talked about the number of countries that we saw double digit growth in during the quarter from japan to brazil, to india, some even stronger numbers than that in russia. we also are very happy with the switcher right that we saw. >> so cook not really tipping his hand. there but he is having a bullish tone about the health of the iphone franchise and he pointed to that large installed base of users. there is also that record number of android switchers and they

continue to tract new users to apple's ecosystem. >> and investors are buying it now. josh, thank you. let's get more color from the call with collin gillis still with us. how much of the moch is expectations into the call or bullish commentary? >> there's a mix of both. actually what is most interesting is tim cook just said that a lot of the r & d spending is happening for product that is not currently shipping. so that is indicative of new categories. you have to remember apple drew down inventory by four million phones in the june quarter. so some of that september guidance is going to be inventory buildup happening as well. but generally speaking, all the commentary is positive. >> all right. thank you very much for being with us for the hour. it is time for the final trade. bob peck over there, let's start with you on twitter. >> so twitter having challenges. very much a work in progress. doesn't warrant a premium multiple. grade c. >> all right. our thanks to bob peck and

collin gillis. around the horn. >> you have to give a shoutout to bob peck. this guy has been on the money with twitter downgrading it twice in the last year at relative top. so kudos you to. and thn apple, if you weren't willing to buy it at $97, i'm not sure why you would buy it at $103. maybe it was a good quarter. you may get a shot closer to $100. >> there are 2% global growth out there for bk. that is enough to take trokts and xme which is the metals and mining etf. i don't think this run is sustainab sustainable. >> i'm putting my money where my mouth, is facebook. i believe the momentum will continue. we haven't seen many companies like this that can sustain the growth. i think facebook can. >> guy? >> i think both collin and bob peck and i'm thrilled that you came back to host the show. this is a cameo. that this is it this week? >> i do my makeup at 3. 306789 in the morning.

by the way, brian kelly completed the lake placid iron man on sunday. he is a stud! >> valero. reverse last week. great quarter. get you done. >> all right. thank you. i'm sarah eisen. ivan. "mad money" with jim cramer begins now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but educate and teach you. call me 1-800-374-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. if i had to sum up today in two words, good