tv Fast Money CNBC August 5, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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>> we're going to go try to simulate the global economy. >> you going to rio in. >> see you the week after next. kayla, evan, guy, thank you so much for joining us. as mentioned, a ton of these retail earnings we'll turn our attention to next week. "fast money" begins now. >> fast money on a summer friday starts now. live from times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk -- tonight on fast, stocks making new records, but if you missed the rally, we've got the one dow stock that can get you back in the game. plus, what do 3-d system, fit bit and square have in common? suddenly come back to life. dare to buy these stocks? and later, do you hear that fake olympic music? the real song and we've got four stocks to go for the gold. but first, we start off with the
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markets for today. the s&p and nasdaq closing at record highs and a blowout jobs report, but the real story was the bank breakout helping the load stocks hire. what are the saying about the markets and is this the next great trade? >> what the banks are saying is that the bank stocks are cheap. on valuation, people are saying i got to get in these names. they're cheap. rate rs going higher. the environment's getting better. they have to own the names. i don't know if i necessarily agree, but that's what the markets say. >> financial sector is is now in the green. wasn't just overall. you take a look at regional, they're up by more than 3%. was this a warranted rally based ton jobs snurm. >> absolutely. what recession in you have a place here where if you think about the long growth in this last round of earn, even the guys that weren't as tuned up, if you look at where i think people have put expectations for the banks, if you look at the discount they put on the credit analysis of banks, i think i'm
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not going to, this is not the one day to say wow, everything's great. i've been saying thing rs not great, but fincke you look at what the banks are showing you and drop that under the context where the best wage growth since recession is the number we got today. not saying everything is wonderful, but this is a sector that was so beaten up and i look at the chart and jpmorgan getting back to up 66 bucks, this is where we've seen seeing this thing fail the third time. yet the momentum going in, i think is actually much more powerful than at other times. >> sit there and just own any stock. i'd rather play from the long time to short side. getting valuation. >> what kind of banks? >> wells fargo. i think it's a great bank. these are names that i love to be involved in. >>.
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>> they have worst set of earnings in q2 and it's really one of the worst performing ones if you think about it in 2016. citigroup, up 4%. that stock had been going down for the last two weeks. >> the sentiment shift means something. it's a massive underpositioning. >> sorry, the dash for track has been you wanted to get. so if you're saying wells fargo is one of the least quality, those are the ones that have been outperforming. since the last payroll number, we have two in a row. i would argue that banks financials and tech and em and high cyclicals, this isn't a one-day trade. >> i think that's important. the context of this move is that
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we've seen a rotation already in the market into areas that were not loved. we saw with technology and individual tech names and now, with financials. you can't deny the price action of the market over the last few weeks or few months. the one monkey wrench. getting decent economic data. at what point, when do they run out of excuses? that would be my push back to them. >> no, i do think. that's thing. i think they should have brought a couple of years ago. do i think they should now? no, it seems to be an earnings reseg. the fact is, they've seemed to reach all the goal posts they've set forth. >> i hear you and i'd like to see them race, too. i'm looking for consistency and the argument. people when they're talking
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about markets and i don't mean you guys. what i'm saying is that people say this economy is so bad, yet we get a good number. we've got to stay consistent. they're probably not going to go in september. if you look tat the probability we're at 41, 42% and yields, have they bottom ed? not going to whip saw myself. i tell you what, if you look at the price, looks like we put in a brexit bottom. >> the question goes back to the table. can the market rally? before, it was without energy. now, without the banks continue tog rally. i think the energy, we understand the downside. if the banks begin to rally, that will lift the market higher. that's the crucial part.
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can it be, august, the august jobs number is much more important than before because now, that is going to be the one that actually confirms three month trend on the eve of the fed meeting. is there enough to sustain the rally. >> remember this. that number at 252 today now, we're still well below the 2015 trend. this strength has to continue to be up over 205 and we're talk about that earnings recession. if the fed were to do a surprised cut before the election, then you could see. then you couldn't see the second year of s&p earnings down. the last thim that happened was in 2008 in '09. other than the fact the market and s&p is discounting whole
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heck of a lot. i'm also telling you that the bank stocks are not telling you? >> would you short -- all of these thing, in fact, you said it. the numbers were horrible. >> let's see where he stands. >> i have positions on where i've lost money being shorted in the last couple of months. you talked about it, a trading deal. i think she had the right attitude. dollar cost at average a iing. if you can have a long-term time
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horizon, if i had your trade, i'd be out. >> so, here's the question. a rotation seems to be developing. >> sounds like a would you rather build up. >> would you rather banks or technology. >> sector. technology. >> give me a name. >> probably either a cisco or intel or one of these guys that's continuing to show steady growth where people have indicted -- if right now, today, based upon today's move where e resistance is, even though i think they can breakthrough. >> i agree. i think he's spot on as far as trading. people are at the point where they should be sold. nvidia, i like nvidia. i like the stock a lot. >> not going to do would you rather.
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>> cisco or nvidia. >> nvidia's a great sh great story. up 70%. cisco's going to report in a couple of weeks and for all the reason's tim's mentioning, if really refl arkreflating, he's yield. so, this is one that probably kopts to work. >> i like when you guys can find common ground. >> not as much fun. i'll give you two. >> would you rather. >> you're choosing both. doesn't make sense. >> talk ed about cisco. we said if it gets to 30, it's going to break out to the upside and we remember back in may when juniper preannounced.
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since it's a friday, i'll play the game. look at what these exchanges have done over the last few months. >> up next, netflix turning lower as -- could someone else step in? plus, several left for dead stocks are surging if the rally continues, is this where you want to be and later, the countdown is on for the openinging ceremony of the 2016 olympic games in rio and we've got four stocks ready to go for the gold. the names when "fast money" returns. a a a a o window the heirloom tomato.
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level. could someone else step? n? >> no. i don't think so. i don't think first of all, to buy netflix? certainly, i appreciate the fact that baba's not the right partner. i just look at the valuation for netflix, i look at the infrastructure that other people have or the ability to you know, bring the pipe into the house or the user base they have. i don't see why apple needs to do it. you know, maybe disney needs to do it. although need is a big word. i think netflix is overly, overly expensive. i think they're running out of gas. it's a very xhottized thing. i wouldn't buy the stock here. >> there has been speculation about disney. would be very interesting. that speculation again, purely speculation. it's been around, but would be an interesting combo.
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>> i actually disagree. apple this week just told you that they don't have a strategy as it relates to the tv. they have a little $150 box. they want to build a tv guide digitally. they have not been able to do what they did with i-tunes music for video content. >> when you say it's aol time warner, that was a bad deal. right. exactly. so, is that a bigger metaphor? >> i think there's a good chance that it does get taken over for $60 billion, knockout bid. a $42 billion market cap. 80 million subscribers. maybe they need to be a part of apple. they have a billion ios devices in place. to me, they could probably monotize it better. >> really where it seems like they're falling down, their content is stuff i can get through hulu or some other place. >> not the original stuff.
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>> that's why disney makes a lot of sense, i don't think this is their business model. bristol myers shares plunging on a drug study. seeing its worst day since 2002. guy? >> i think bristol lost over $20 billion in market cap today. we're levels we haven't seen in quite some time. technicians will talk about a massive double top going back from 1999. but a $20 billion loss on this news to me is excessive. the stock traded i want to say 11, 12 times normal volume today and there's a chance this drug reappears in new york or something. i think it was today specifically an overreaction on a summer friday, i think there's huge opportunity. zpl all the analysts are making a point of saying when merck did its trial and they had the positive results in june, that it was a different sample. so, this is a much tougher
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sample. maybe that's why it failed. >> instead at 5%, you could have been at 15. we were saying that's a roughly 65% approval. bottom line, this is about greed. think about it. they went for much to much of the population. absolutely too much. and i look at this and say, highly, highly crowded long. with every institution. look, i don't say necessarily more downside. maybe a little bit, but i don't see the stock ripping back up to where it was trading before. i say something's going to have to happen here. no real news flow coming out until 2017, the stock's kind of install mode. >> so, bristol, it's either i don't know, unwarranted or to the downside. how about merck? merck gained a lot in market share. one analyst said there would be seismic shift. >> a huge win for merck.
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but i think the bristol is overdone. i understand what david is saying. could it trade sideway sns wael come back here six months from now, remember when bristol myers was trading 62.5. with that said, merck is working on a lot interesting thing, but the stock seeming to be taking it higher. >> next up, beaten down and left for dead stocks have been surging and specifically, take a look at the one-month performance. all seeing gains of 3%. you buy these zombie stocks? >> you throw in a go two i, i think that's going on with these stocks, obviously have interesting technologies. investors bought into them and then they were doup from the highs of the last couple of years. we have a high short interest and i think when you have a market broking out and a lot of concentrated trades, it's not
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difficult to look out to these stocks to get around. so, i think that if you have a longer term time horizon and you believe there is a place for fit bit or you believe maybe there's 3-d technology, something to change the narrative, then i think you can do it and just the short-term trade. these things go up and down quickly. >> i think they found a bottom. and. >> the ones we mentioned have found a bottom. >> look at the cash in their balance sheets. we know they're not getting the growth multiple and they've lost it, but to say these companies just add up the sum of the part, add up their intellectual property. that's a a buy. >> still ahead, disney is set to report next week and traders are betting on a big move. how you can make money if it goes up or down. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> the opening ceremonies in rio
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>> opening ceremony is fast approaching. the official start of the games. people always wonder if a host city is ready, but especially this year with brazil, the worst recession in 30 years, gdp that's shrunk 2% in two years. we talked to carlos, who lived here as a kid, about brazil's big moment. >> in yen, i'm brazilian, so i know what i'm talking about. brazilian are slow starter and fast finisher. okay? so, if you think the photo in the middle of the game, these guys never going to finish anything, but they are fast finish e. we've seen this movie. we're going to see it here again, so the fact it's taking place at the moment of a heavy recession doesn't happen. okay? because some of the fast finishing can be more difficult because of that. >> here at olympic park, we're seeing a lot of fast finishing at both venues and its security
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check points. brazil's security force patrolling the grounds and according to our colleagues at nbc news, u.s. intelligence has assigned more than 1,000 officers to help the brazilian government with liolympic security. in addition to u.s. special forces here in rio. opening ceremony less than just very soon. as you can tell. secretary of state kerry visiting brazil's foreign minister here in rio, says the games already safe, sound and secure. the eyes of the world are watching. and we're ready for an exciting few weeks. >> you got a chance to speak to some of the athletes in the village. did you get the impression that things were finished or finishing there as well? >> not finished, but getting finished. i think there's a sense that when they got here, obviously, that final nail was being hit into the wood. the sense we're getting is that the fixes have been happening quickly and nobody expects this infrastructure to be 100% finisheded when they arrive.
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we had this discussion in beijing. saw it in sochi, where the hash tag was sochi problems, but by the second or third day of ooents r, a lot of those memories had fade. >> and the opening ceremonies will be spectacular which will showcase brazil as well as its history. there is one disappointment. that is the withdrawal of soccer legend, pele. >> yeah, there was a lot of speculation he might have been the one to light the caldron tonight. health issues have kept him from rio. he just tweeted, god bless the game, which makes tonight even more of a mystery. who would they choose to light the caldron even as they pay homage not just to the south america's first games, but also the income inequality that's so obvious here. i think you'll see that symbolized tonight. >> thank you. in rio for us. tune in this nbc tonight, 7:30, for live coverage of the opening ceremonies in rio de janeiro.
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all right, so, with the opening ceremonies set to go, we want to take a look at some of the gold medal trades. the stock's going for the gold. not bronze. not silver. gold. >> cbd, walmart, best buy of brazil. also, recovering margins. >> way fair. i know it's in a big move on some new hires, but not going to get intruded by amazon from the standpoint of the online market. they ship big goods, period. this is one you want to own. >> dan. >> cisco. they're going to report on august 17th. if they beat and raise. >> going to be gone for a while, but listen. this is not going to be gone for a while. phillips 66. everybody's darling the last few years ago. >> winning gold. >> exciting. >> full valuation, the worst
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might be over. psx. >> going to miss you. >> as guy had alluded to, we are going to be off for the next wo week, but catch our behind the trade series next week. traders will be taking you behind the trades of some of the biggest stocks in the game. options action starts after this break. americans are buying more and more of everything online. and so many businesses rely on the united states postal service to get it there. because when you ship with us, your business becomes our business. that's why we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. the united states postal service. priority: you we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances,
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[ hip♪ olympics 2016, let ] me get you on my level. ♪ ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪ miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪ soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪ all you have to say is, ♪ "show me," and boom it's on the screen. ♪ ♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ "show me the latest medal count?" ♪ ♪ xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games.
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we're coming to you on the eve of the olympics. mike's going to compete in the high jump later on. he's stretching. check out what's coming up on the show. old tech is partying like it's 19 ut and there's one name that's about to break out. we'll ek plain. plus, how would you like to make money if disney shares go up or county on earnings? >> programs you haven't been telling the truth. >> ain't no fib, but cld
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