retail redo. macy's gets another chance with investors. one quarter after the department store annoyanced worst quarterly sale since the recession. money on the trail. we heard trump's economic plan. now it's time for hillary to react. we'll tell you what to expect on the political front ahead. it's thursday, august 11, 2016. "world wide exchange" begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to

"world wide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> stop snapping. >> i'm not snapping. i'm getting out twitter question. it is throw back thursday. we're throwing it back with olympic spirit, go team usa it says. i agree with that. i also say go team gb. >> i think they're still falling behind. let's check on the markets this morning. again, just continuing this pattern of smaller moves, tighter ranges, dow futures are up 36 points. s&p are up 3.2. nasdaq futures are up nine. beneath sort of the headline flatness we're seeing in the industry, there are some movers. yesterday the market was dragged down by energy. worst performer and financials and the financial story, loork at the 10-year treasury note yield. had an auction yesterday. there was a lot of demand,

foreign demand for u.s. treasures. that pushed yielding down. we're hovering over 150 this point. >> exxon was the worst performer yesterday. better than expectations. we're going to talk about the bond story in a bit. let's have a look at european uni union equities this hour. small declines. don't focus toomp. a lot of companies going x dividend today. let have a look further at yields in the uk because this has been fascinating. record lows. we see them tick up a little bit today. at the start of the year, the 10-year was at 2%. just before the brexit it was 1.6%. it has fallen an astonishing amount in the last weeks and months yesterday hitting record

lows the spread between the 10-year treasury and the u.s. uk at a 16 year height in terms of width bigger gap and that's why we've seen the pound fall in recent weeks. below 1.30 this morning. asia is closed for the mountain day holiday. we're seeing half%. up about 0.4%. mixed session in asia. two central bank decisions overnight. knew so new zealand cut the rights and suggested more cuts are likely. it's a quarter point cut. it had been expected to cut further. that's why the new sew zealand dollar is rallying. the likes of new zealand and australia, they never embrace qe and they still have room to cut rates in the first instance.

they never get down to the record lows we've seen in a lot of other place sgls which makes them relatively high yielders and their currencies relatively strong. they have been hit hard by the selloff that's hurting the economy and that's why we're seeing this easier policy start to take shape at this point. >> that's reinforced with the bank of england move of course. on to commodities the latest monthly report. out in the last hour suggests oil markets will begin to tighten in the second half of the year. the iea cautious the process will be slow as demand growth falls and nonopec supplies rebound. oil prices a big driver yesterday. down again today by almost 1%. wti crude 41.34. we've had some softness, but we've stabilized a little bit it seems. having dipped below 40 is a big worry. >> we did get bearish factors last week we lirnearned from

saudiia arabia was pumping a record amount. venezuela trying to call for a meeting of producers. not making much headway and warning of lower demand. as for the dollar, it's been weaker this week. yesterday. coming off a little bit going the other way this morning with the euro weaker eat 1.1145. the pound weaker by .40%. the dollar strength against the japanese yen importantly at 101.29. that has been hovering in the 100 to 105 level. the 100 is very key. the bank of japan does not want to see dip blow that. speaking of currency, first go to gold. on the back of the weaker dollar it's gotten a bid and held near the highs of the year. flat in morning. remember where you were one year ago? >> i was here. and i was talking about the chinese currency. the big devaluation remember of

the chinese currency where global markets with shocked, august 11, 2015 when the people's bank of china cut the guidance rate by about 2% against the u.s. dollar. there was no warning for this. so we really saw a spillover in global markets including the s&p 500 and then over the 12 months since then, the currency has dpreeshed by roughly 7%. world leaders finance chiefs were scolding china for not being communicative about the move. it's where we started the year in january with the major global selloff because china was devaluing currency and nobody knew why. was it because the economy was weakening, whether they were trying the stem capital outflows. money rushing out of the country. it's calmed down a lot. i remember talking to the vice chairman of the fed. they're communicating their policy path a little more saying

they're going to do small devaluations here in order to help stimulate the economy. >> my personal long-term bearish hasn't eased in the lightest. the other thing in that communication they've started to manage to convince they're balancing the currency. we see the moves against the u.s. dollar and that's the most relevant currency of the individual ones, but they're doing it against a basket so individual moves are slightly less relevant. so the currency certainly something that's not moving much. >> we've overcome that worry for sure. >> exactly. here's what's on the agenda today. more retail earnings with kohls and macy's. also 8:30 import and export prices. we mentioned macy's. landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. >> the street is looking for

macy's to earn 45 cent as share on revenue. here are three things to watch. first the amazon affect. more consumers are shopping online and only adds to a tough retail environment with traffic at malls slowing. is weighing on the sector as a whole. down about 49% in the past year. second the weather, the slower onset of warmer weather likely required additional markdowns. they do believe sales accelerated as the warmer weather set in later in the quarter and the third thing to watch the outlook. beyond the second quarter the back to school season should give a nice boost to the second half of the year. >> the question is are expectations low enough because so many other of these retail companies like coach and ralph lauren and kate spade have cited weakening mall traffics which has lowered expectations. coach saying it's pulling out of

a lot of department stores. terry lund gren will be on "squawk box." it is right after the retailer reports results. always valuable to hear what he has so say no matter which way the stock goes. u.s. prosecutors have opened an investigation into valeant. whether it hid the relationship with a pharmacy that helped increase sales from insurers. previously disclosed in investigation by attorneys in new york and continues to cooperate. shake shack under pressure after same store sales at the burger chain grew less than what wall street had expected. earnings and revenue did top estimates. it's down 10%. shares of am rin getting slammed. coming up, shares of

alibaba. will it follow amazon's lead and reveal a blowout quarter and what does it tell us about the strength of the chinese consumer, but first facebook and twitter question today, it's hillary clinton's turn to outline the position on the economy today. we asked, who has more contribute on the issue? donald trump or hillary clinton? send us your results and we'll bring them to you later in the show. amazing is moving like one. real is making new friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them. there's only one place where real and amazing live. book a seaworld vacation package and eat free.

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let's get you up to speed on the market action. yesterday we were down around a quarter of a percent. today we're looking to offset those losses only slightly as you can see to the tune of .20 of 1%. oil was the biggest factor yesterday. alldy cli declined. wti down. 41.41 as we speak. today's top stocks to watch. alibaba expected to post quarterly results. eunice yoon joins us from beijing. >> reporter: we're expecting alibaba to deliver a decedent report card.

expected to come in at $1.5 billion. that's on revenue of $4.5 billion. gmv which is the amount of stuff that crosses the sites is expected to grow by 22%. the company has always been using this as a measure to really show the growth of e-commerce players, but it says that it's this measure gmv isn't going to be relevant to them because they're pushing into other pizzabusinesses. cloud computing prex. trying to drive more business from overseas. big acquisition it made in southeast asia. looking to offset the slowdown we're seeing here in china. the big theme of the conference call is likely going to be about transparency. the company had disclosed the fcc was investigating for consolidation practices also looking into the way it reported data for a singles day which is

a huge online shopping day in china and the company alibaba has said it's cooperating with the authorities, and, in fact, for this quarter, they are going to for the first time report their numbers in five key metrics. including cloud computing e-commerce as well as entertainment to make it easier for investors to understand accounting as well as the over all company. >> thank you very much for settise setting us up for that report. don't miss joseph tsai. >> coming up on the show, highlights from last night's big action in rio. another strong night for team usa at the olympics, but first, as we head to break, here's today's national weather forecast for the weather channel general carfagno. >> good morning. we have storms again today that could be big rainmaking storms. you know, thaim be isolated throughout parts of the

northeast, but when it rains it's going to pour, two to four inches of rain possible. isolated tornado risk right here across parts of iowa, southern minnesota, heavy rain up here as well. focusing on louisiana, mallex smith mississippi. dallas we continue the streak of 100 plus. we sent record energy usage again yesterday afternoon. we have two more days of high heat in dallas, texas. "world wide exchange" continues after this. cathy's gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage...

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welcome back to "world wide exchange." your wall street setup is looking positive this morning. s&p up 4.5 and nasdaq up 13. this after a mini selloff on wall street yesterday. and focused today department store earnings, macy's, kohls premarket. jobless and import and export prices. quickly show you the dollar which is a bit stronger. it has sold off sort of sharply yesterday. going the other way, weaker euro, weaker british pound. look at that, broke below 1.30. fwen the pound continues to be under pressure as quantitative easing ramps up in the uk. better tone to the markets overall.

quickly on the 10-year treasury note yield hovering around the 150 level. that's pushed yields lower. we're at 1 .51 right now. lower yields drag down the bank stocks yesterday. see if that reverses in today's session. >> now to the olympics if you went to sleep earlier last night you missed great moments in rio. joins us life from brazil with all the details. good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning to you. let's start with the road here in rio. paved with gold for christen arm strong the u.s. cyclist who a day before 43rd birthday win as gold medal in cycling time trials the third time she's done that consecutively the first olympic cyclist to ever win three gold medals in the same discipline. in the water it has been wonderful for team usa. continued last night. katie ledecky with the anchor

leg and winning gold for that team. diving the american sam doorman and michael hickson, they find silver in the green waters of the diving pool. that is the highest they have finished. i've been taeasing you a bit so want to give you your due. chris from britden repeating. jack laugher and chris mears gold in the spring board event. the agrgreat day for the brits e in rio. >> i stand corrected. they are in the top ten. >> we have three golds in total. that's not bad. >> jay, thank you very much. >> very strong. >> we'll be back with jay

throughout the olympics. i like that. three golds. we're catching up. >> here's the medal count so far. u.s. coming in first. 11 folds. 32 medals. second is china, japan, raush and australia. great britain now making a move. sixth place. ninth. ninth we are with three golds. ninth place. >> we're going to come through. >> what did we bet on, you owe me a meal. >> a twitter question. fine, inside joke. >> political news, hillary clinton today set to give an economic speech in michigan this afternoon. tracie potts joins us with the latest from the campaign trail. >> reporter: as you know the clinton campaign has been going hard after the republicans who don't like donald trump.

now we'll see if she can hold onto them once she gives her economic plan today. >> friends don't let friends vote for trump. >> reporter: hillary clinton going after republican votes as she prepares for today's economic speech near detroit. >> am determined to create more businesses and more jobs. >> donald trump calls her record unimpressive. >> she promised the world and it went like this. it went down. our jobs got sucked away from us. >> reporter: now e-mails suggest the clinton foundation asked the state department for favors that her campaign says never happened. >> that's the old pay to play system, the american people are sick and tired of. >> reporter: and look who is right behind clinton at this florida rally. sadiq mateen, the father of the orlando shooter.

clinton disavows his support. >> isis is honoring president obama. he is the founder of isis. he's the founder of isis. okay. he's the founder. he founded isis. and i would say the co-founder would be "crooked" hillary clinton. polls show his support is waning, his attacks are not. >> reporter: he's talking jobs in the midwest today. trump will be in miami. both of them trying to convince voters they can fwix the economy. >> when does the next big poll come out where we can see what the impact of this week was, both of them ganging up on each other. calling out each other to be president with various attacks whether it was trumps words or hilla hillary's past actions. >> it's not going to be long. we're getting major polls coming out every day between the

networks, bloomberg, some of the big polling organizations out there. we can probably expect one early next week. >> we'll be looking for that. >> tracie, despite the attempts to reset on the policy earlier this week, it has not been a good week overall. >> now there are challenging coming up for hillary clinton as well. we've been talking a long time donald trump slipping in the polls. donald trump catching fire for things he said. we have ems coming out. we have the mateen issue for hillary clinton. she's gaining in the polls, but she still has things to deal with on the campaign trail. >> tracie potts reporting for us. tracie, thank you. >> what strikes me is you're not seeing the uncertainty in the polls right now. maybe it's the status quo, but it has been interesting to watch. >> there's also the other point as john manley was telling us

from wells fargo yesterday. it's not just simply an outcome like the brexit vote. there are certainly nuances though, but when you look at sector specific way, what corporate tax rates are going to be. a lot of companies will get a boost in corporate tax rates were cut. >> or tpp doesn't go through. the drug stocks. hopefully we'll gain more information from hillary clinton's speech. on a programming note. don't miss donald trump. he'll be live on "squawk box" to talk about the economy, and, of course, some of his recent controversies. >> still ahead on "world wide exchange" this morning's top stories including investors taking a bite out of shake shack plus a champagne shortage. why a glass of bubbly could cost you a lot more. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc, first in business. we're back in a couple of minutes after a little glass of

pricey champagne.

new this morning, the iea cutting the forecast. earning central, the consumer in focus today with results in kohls, macy's and nordstroms. plus champagne problems. why a glass of bubbly could cost you a lot more. it's thursday, august 11, 2016

and you're watching cnbc. ♪ ♪. >> good morning and welcome back to "world wide exchange." i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost. we're throwing it back with olympic spirit. >> team gb. good for you. usa songs will dominate the rest of the show. we will check in on global markets. >> this is "world wide exchange." >> china is catching up. only one gold medal behind. >> if they get the take, what happens then. >> it will be a hit to the pride. we have the big as far as. >> stars. >> you do. >> let's have a look at u.s. markets. the dough by 48 points. getting a little bit more momentum in the last half hour.

we were positive over the last half hour. not quite to this extent. yesterday we dedeclined. energy was the disappoint yesterday. let's have a look at stocks around the world. europe is mixed to down. the ftse 100, we have in fact improved. the ftse has a lot of companies going x dividend today. the rest slugging off earlier declines. japan is closed today. we have seen the chinese market close down. as for the broader market pressure, pressure on oil prices again after a selloff yesterday sent wti below 42. we're at 41.53 right now. brent is 43.93. gnat gas gets a bump. as for the 10-year treasury note

yield. reversing a little bit this morning with the 10-year jumping to 1.51. sent yields lower. takes us back to the lower 1.50s. the dollar was weak all day yesterday. now bouncing back a bit. stronger guest the euro and pound and even the japanese yen. euro dollar off by about .20%. initial job claimsed to. as for gold not moving a lot this morning. has been stronger on the back of the weaker u.s. dollar. it's flat down a buck. >> super low, but over 1% from the uk, and, of course, even further of a gap when you talk about germany and japan. crazy times we live in. >> that's where the center of the easing action is. it's why the british pound has been so weak: i would say overall, wilfred, we're seeing small moves, but what's important is stocks are holding

the highs. we are right near record highs. whether it's earnings related, ralph lauren that jumped 9% yesterday in terms of the retailers. we'll start to get the department store numbers this morning. question there is how much of the bad news or the lowered expectations on lower mall traffic and deeper discounts have already been baked in. can they pull out positive surprises on a light week for economic data. >> holding the highs with oil being pretty soft as well. another encouraging factor. >> some stocks to watch today, chesapeake energy agreeing to sell interest in the barnette area. chesapeake will cut daily production rate. giving the stock a pretty good lift here in the premarket. up 6%. samsung will acquire decor. and is hoping that acquisition

will boost the high end product sales. blue buffalo beating on the top and bottom line. pet food maker hiking outlook for the year and that stock is up just a bit. >> a u.s. judge dismissing a lawsuit that accused twitter of isis. the lawsuit was brought by the widow of an american killed in jordan. she accused the social media of giving the islamic state a voice. judge found it cannot be held accountable for rhetoric, but gave the chance to refile. >> the chief founder of alphabet capital arm is leaving the company kmrks is known as gv. gv was created back in 2009. it's invested in more than 300 companies including uber, jet.com. managing partner david crane will replace him as the firm's chief. other news this morning,

working on a common process for reopening trading after a halt. the plan follows a wild trading session last august. now on to our top trending stories of the morning. viral video halert a man scalin trump is tower with suction cups and straps. according to police, the 20-year-old from virginia posted a youtube video saying he wanted a meeting with trump. he was apprehended by police. being held for mental evaluation. >> how did he get that high and good for police finally tackling him through the window. he gained quite an audience. >> it was a spider man moment. >> everyone was glued for a few hours.

>> he did not get the meeting. >> we got the meeting today. >> you're do i think "squawk box" right. 7:00 a.m. donald trump. forget stories. instagram is testing a save draft future. save an unaccomplished photo for later use. users who do have the feature will see it pop up any time they tap on the back arrow. instagram hasn't confirmed a date for the complete roll out. >> i like the idea of this. they should take it a step forward. because quite often you find yourself taking a great smnap. it's too soon to post it. come out in three hours like noncha lantly posting 3 thours later. >> or you could set an alarm for yourself. >> you don't use the twitter drafts. twitter lets you do that and i

don't use it. >> our team does because they post it throughout the night. got to catch them all, but still need to get paid. you might be in luck. posting a job add for a pokemon master on the facebook page. company is looking for a pokemon fanatic to fill the first ever pokemon job in the world. sadly it's not going to go to either of us. we don't play. shows the level of that craze. >> absolutely. so wilfred, could there be a champagne shortage ahead? champagne producers saying they've had their most challenging growing season in 60 years. frost, mildew, humidity all contributing. 99% of the vineyards it monitored showed signs of mildew. yuck. >> it's not going to bother you. you like the strong stuff. >> i like the brown whiskeys.

>> revealed this morning in the makeup room you said you have a glass every night. >> a few sips. >> help me go to sleep at 8:00 p.m. >> not champagne. >> still to come today's must reads and then later today, don't miss donald trump. we just mingsed it. that's coming up 7:00 a.m. eastern. so much to talk to him about. stay tuned. first in business worldwide.

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welcome back to "world wide exchange." we're excited to tell you about a blockbuster lineup. this is the investor summit produced by cnbc and institutional investor. among the headlines, treasury secretary jack lieu. karl icon. steve schwartz man, marry roads of j.p. morgan. dawn fits patrick of ubs. this is coming up september 13 in new york city. more details and tickets at delivering alpha.com. already an extraordinary lineup. >> stocks to watch today. glen core reporting outlook. commodity giant says production of copper dropped 4%. coal 14% and zink declined 31%.

deutsche telecom second quarter profit rising 9 p%. that one is being well received by the market. >> now to this morning's must read story. my pick is an olympic one. in the financial times why swimming records are being smashed in rio. so far 15 were made in rio. since 2008, every single swimming event world record has been broken so the article explores why swimming people are improving so very much, and, of course, the inclusion is the incredible hard work and development, but the most specific one this article points to is the improvement in the pool. it's not swim suits.

rio about the shock absorbent lane dividers, slick drainage to reduce ripples that better allows swimmers to glide through the water plus the temperature keeps muscles neither too tight anymore too relaxed. pretty fascinating stuff. it's interesting. when you bear in mind 15 world records in the pool in this olympics and a lot of swimming events to come. >> also gets to rio preparedness for the whole thing which has been criticized and questioned leading up. if they really are nailing it with the pool. >> my pick is about delta's technical glitch this week. usa today basically just venting saying airlines need to ensure that they spend enough of their newfound profits and they take that back to all of the mergers of the last years to ensure

reliable computer systems with backups that work. businesses that depend so utterly on computers cannot allow a glitch to cause so much description. thousands of flights have been disrupted still trying to get back to normal and delta is not alone. it's happened to all of the big airlines. >> all airlines. if you do check in manually still these days which is rare and you are choosing the seat and the screen so you can see it, it's like the oldest looking computer program you've seen. they haven't updated their system for a long time. i'm sure it's an expensive thing to do. >> these airlines do have newfound profits. they're collects fees like baggage and add ones and paying a lot back to shareholders which is nice, but try to upgrade your technical equipment so this stops happening. >> we're approaching the top of the hour. the team is getting ready for "squawk box."

jot joins us for a look at what is coming up from new york. >> good morning to you. donald trump, he's coming up 7:00 a.m. this morning. we can't wait to speak with the donald about all things in politics, his campaign, some of the controversies and everything else. he's going to call into the show 7:00 a.m. and we're going to speak to mr. trump. it has been a big week for him laying out his economic vision. there's the second amendment controversy and oh, by the way, the guy wo tried to scale trump tower just a few bloox from here yesterday and got everybody's attention on the street and perhaps on trvgs as well. you have a bunch ofl earnings coming up. macy's, becky quick is going to be here. full slate and even wilfred, you will be here. >> i will and quite comfortably the bottom of that impressive list you just made, but i look forward to joining it and i will be hot footing it in 15 minutes

time. i will be there for the rest. >> keep your seat warm for you. >> great stuff. "squawk box" in 15 minutes time. >> coming up here first, cheefl economist at deutsche bank. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. what's it like to be in good hands? like finding new ways

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but with added touches you can't get everywhere else, like claim free rewards... or safe driving bonus checks. even a claim satisfaction guaranteeeeeeeeeee! in means protection plus unique extras only from an expert allstate agent. it's good to be in, good hands. welcome back to "world wide exchange." a very good morning to you. we saw a quarter of a percent of decline. the nasdaq was down a bit more. 0.4%. today we're bouncing back. the dough expected to bounce by 43 points. the last hour or so we got a little more positivity. po oil was a big factor yesterday. it's declining again today, but not too much.

we're down just .5% for wti. we have managed to stay quite comfortable above $40 this week. let's have a look at currency. the dollar up .20% today. the pound the down. that color the wrong. down by .30%. below 1.30. the dollar is stronger. 1.2965. the gap between the yield of u.s. and uk ten your is around record lows hit yesterday a 16 year high in terms of the spread between the two. sara. one big mover to watch at the open today is shake shack under pressure. premarket here same store sales at the burger chain grew less than wall street expected. did top estimates, but it was the come store tesales that wer

so disappointing. analysts were looking for a number around 5% there. shake shack reported a number about 4.5% in terms of same store sales and hast the stock was hit 9%. this has been a roller coaster ride. it is way off the highs that it got to post ipo, but has shown strength. last quarter came in with much better than expected comp store sales number almost 10% higher. it was one priced for perfection. trades more than 100 times earnings. jack moore was on closing bell yesterday on this. he likes names like pa nora better. less risky. a lot of growth priced into shake shack. >> ahead of ipo so much excitement about it. i came to the u.s., i go to go into it and it's nice, but it's not that you anemic. what different is it? >> people like it and line up for it. those cheese fries.

have you had those. >> no. only the regular ones. >> what else is on the agenda. kohl's and macy's after the bell. before the bell nordstroms. on a programming note don't miss terry lundgren on "squawk box." we'll be able to ask him about his earnings, but to react to the trump interview that will proceed that. >> absolutely, as for the broader markets, the 10-year treasury on the right now. hovering above 1.51. at least in a small way that's pushing yields above 1.51. >> absolutely. 16 year high for that spread. highlighting the difference on monetary difference between the countries. >> joining us now from new york is joe lo vornia. is the current theme dominating

the markets which are near record highs on stocks like central banks and others are in an easy growth mode for a long time of a shallow recovery and that's a positive environment for stocks. >> the last point -- the only point people on the fixed income side would disagree with you on in the sense that you're right the central banks are fully involved. the bank of england did more qe than people thought. it's helped push yields down. in fact the auction they couldn't buy everything they wanted because investors wouldn't part with bonds. that's helped push yields lower. we have flattening-year-old curves and many investors think the equity market is expensive and where it is only because of the central bank policy so there's no real organic growth and the market is rich. maybe it could stay elevated for a short period of time, but the market is rich. that's my perspective.

i'm looking at the u.s. economy last quarter that generated no, ma'am gnat growth. if you take the consumer out, the economy was actually stlinging in nominal terms. very unusual. therefore i don't see a big earnings recovery coming in stocks. unless growth really rebounds, to me the market remains vulnerable despite a good rally this year. >> does the election add to that vulnerability. >> i would argue it hurts on the capital spending side. one of the reasons the economy has been weak. had a very weak capex cycle. they're deciding let's see what happens and maybe reinvest at some later point. . on the equity side the market doesn't seem to be troubled by the outlook. for fixed income investors are using it in a positive sense they don't believe the fed can move before the election. maybe not the way a normal investor would think. >> my push back to you is the

economic data in the u.s. has been coming in for the most part better. business and investment has been weak that helped drag down the second quarter growth number, but so far the other parts of the economy not booming, but do point to 2% growth or many. >> 2% for me would be the high end. you are correct, sara, is unemployment data have been good and retail sales have been surprising i would again coming back to what gdp has looked like, i don't see really -- i like to see the consumer a lot stronger. the consumer has done well relative terms. we're still on a trend basis growing. we should be way above that given the fact that oil prices have collapsed and we've generated over 5 million jobs since then. i see the glass half empty. >> on a sector perspective you seem relatively positive on, but

everything else you're not. what sectors are going to be more attractive. >> the consumer side has done well and, certainly, anything paying a yield has done well. telecom, utilities, et cetera. my view would be just that the market unless -- in you think that there's a recession coming within the next couple of years, i just think you want to be very careful in terms of where you allocate money. when you do have bear markets and bear markets occur during downturns. i would be more cautious. yields go lower. dollar probably strengthens. gold does well. we haven't talked about them, but they're close to their lows on the year and that's not where you want to be if you think the economy is vulnerable to a negative shock. >> does the fed have to embrace quantitative easing and rates again as we saw in the uk.

>> i don't think the fed goes far. if they're lucky maybe one more hike in this year. that's been my view. to sara's point the data has looked better. the fixed income market is saying the terminal feds fund rate is not much above 1.25. they have the terminal rate at 3. i think bottom line is we're going to be in a low interest rate world for a while. if there is a recession we have a shallow rekoifr. it's not as if central banks can cut rates from here and get bang for that buck. >> thank you for joining us this morning. always good to see you. joe la bornia from deutsche bank. we asked who has more credibility on this issue, the results are early and they can change throughout the day, but so far clinton gets it with 62% of the vote. trump at 38. have to say we asked something

similar last week and the results changed. trump got the credibility on business later in the day. >> that's it for "world wide exchange." "squawk box" coming next. you get used to sweaty odors in your car, you think it smells fine but your passengers smell this... eliminate odors you've gone noseblind to for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale/exhale mnic] breathe happy.

mplts good morning. crude prices rebounding from session lows. a full run down of the oil market strait ahead. valeant getting slammed this morning the u.s. government has opened a criminal investigation into that company. and a war of words on the campaign trail. hillary clinton and donald trump trading jabs. we'll bring you the highlights and oh, yeah, a live interview with donald trump himself. it is thursday, august 11, 2016 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

>> hi, good morning everybody. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick. along with scott. our guest is rebecca. it's good to see you here. let's take a check on the markets. the u.s. equity futures after kind of a pitter patter day for the markets giving back some gains. dow future are indicated up 50 points. it's been a while since we've seen a move like this. i hate to call this a move of 54 points with the 5 points move or 100 points we've seen. this is a little more action than we're used to over the last week or so. is s&p futures are up 5 points. the nasdaq is up 13. overnight in asia the nikkei was closed for