park always on his. you get the crazy looks for now, but we might start to see more. >> first adopter, that guy. >> brave guy. let's lots of questions. but sara brown, an olympian, used one to help her train while pregnant. we have to go. we're out of time. kayla, mike, thank you so much for joining us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," crude is falling, incomes are rising. why are restaurant stocks on the floor? a market mystery that could point to a broader trend for the consumer. plus, donald trump gaining in the polls and a former reagan adviser says that could be a disaster for stocks. and he says that's exactly what america needs. what is he talking about? he'll be here to explain. and later, think amazon is taking over the world? you have no idea. we will take you inside a stunning research report that might have you thinking the stock is downright cheap.

noi noirs. first, the only store that matters to wall street and main street right now. that is shares of apple. surging for the third straight day, since a rally began, it has added a staggering $46 billion in market cap for those of you keeping score at home. that's more than a netflix, about the same size as the gm. the question is simple tonight. after being dead money for a long time, is apple now a must-own stock once again? pete, what do you say? >> i don't know that there is anything that's a must-own stock. but i think when you look at apple and you understand what's going on right now and the process and absolutely look at the competition with samsung, and the latest issues they're facing while this new launch is about to go -- happen for apple, and you look at this 8.10 fusion chip that speeds everything up or gives extended battery, all the wonderful things going into this and everybody said there is not enough going on with the phone. i believe what's inside the phone is making it that much more important to have that phone to want that phone and understand why the preorders are record for some of these different carriers out there. so would i own it? i already do.

i've owned it for well over a decade. did i buy some more? yes, i did. i think this stock is going higher yesterday. >> tim? >> to me this is a stock at a time when people are questioning valuations across every asset class, very easy to make an argument i could own apple. so the samsung news, if i think is the biggest catalyst to accentuate what was a very -- the expectations going into this refresh were extremely low, we know about the installed base, we know 25% of -- none of these numbers should be a huge surprise, except for the fact they are a surprise. so the fact we're underwhelming in terms of most of the hardware, except for things -- memory and camera. >> but what about the preorder? that doesn't surprise you? they barely got over the hurdle of expecting nothing and didn't give a whole lot and yet the preorders look pretty impressive. >> something i think is a surprise and maybe this is just to me. the carriers are much more aggressive on the promotions than a year ago and these resemble the two-year plans from a few years ago.

i'm surprised at how the carriers are playing a bigger role in this and may have something to do -- i think this is a heavy samsung effect. >> i agree with tim. i have a little apple, i sold two-thirds, probably three or four weeks ago, i think the phone to me actually looks great in that i think this wireless jack is really an interesting thing. however, i do think what has plagued apple for the last year is still in place. which is the reliance on the one product, and, you know, what is the right multiple to put on that. and then you have other noisy stuff, like the ireland tax situation, which i do think is sort of noise. it was down a fair amount in the last two weeks, up here. i don't feel -- i must own. >> has the story changed? shouldn't we give some credence to apple's run in the face of two brutal market selloffs? price action was great friday -- >> it was great. and a lot of people were saying -- this is not a short squeeze. this people piling in.

what you guys are saying, they're looking out, three, six, months, a year, possibly, about what this product cycle looks at. listen, i'm a bit skeptical here, not by the price action, but by the idea that you're assigning too much value on what sprint and what t-mobile said and when you look at what verizon and a it t ask t said, who are the clear big dad ease as far as u.s. carriers are concerned, it was not as momentous and there are no numbers attached. just because t-mobile, the third-largest carrier in the u.s. says they're up for x -- there are subscribers who have gone from $23 million in 2013 to $31 million. this is a great opportunity for them to get people to switch from other carriers. and they're doing trade-ins, all of this stuff. to me, that's all good for apple. but it's not -- easy, i think, to extrapolate to what's requesting going on with 150 million subs that at&t and verizon have. >> one other thing, though.

we talked about the discipline of not putting so much effort into the car -- the car business, i think, is smart. >> so cost discipline. yeah. >> and part of the argument today, when you look at what rbcs put out there -- this is something we have been pounding the table for a long time. partially the ecosystem, as well. all kinds of different elements to what apple is doing. i'm not putting all that much on the t-mobile thing. i'm saying it's interesting, because everybody went into this and said this is a dud. there is nothing there. and meanwhile, one of the chip makers that supply to apple, what have they said since the end of july? just about every one of them that's very dependent on apple, some of these skyworks, you look at what their numbers are and you say, holy smokes, they have been telling us that demand from apple is strong. and so if that's the case, and we all know that tls, when you look at some of the numbers coming out of those chip makers, that says a lot about where this phone is, as well. so to your point saying, well, at&t -- i think you're going to be very, very surprised when the numbers actually come out. >> i think this is a market

phenomenon. this is totally a place where people -- overwhelmed by valuations. everyone is telling them how could you own stocks, how could you own bonds? i get back to what i said. plus you add in the part -- think about where apple is in its product cycle and calendar. we're going in the best two quarters. no reason why apple should have been rallying the last six months. it's not that it was an underwhelming iphone 7. >> wasn't a great period for apple and all these other -- stars are aligning. >> so if the camera is a little bit later, what i've always said, a massive refresh base and that is something that's always a wind. >> if you were selling at stock at 103 monday morning, the idea of buying at 111 right now doesn't make a heck of a lot of sense. i have been saying this for a while. i was very wrong on near-term price action a couple weeks ago. i took it off today. when you see the price action that it had here, you do not want to be betting against it. i would be really shocked and i know pete saw this action. the most active options in apple today, the october 130 calls.

many being bought. this is a very low probability bet. think about what the high in 2014 was. it was back at 133, 134. and it's an easy way to lever off an existing long position. but that doesn't mean it's going straight back there, just because it's -- >> is this the law of large numbers for the stock in? i kind of feel like you've had this market cap move. that's a huge move. i'm saying this is it. >> continue or what? >> i'm very -- i'm very neutral. if mildly bullish on apple. i'm just telling you, after this move at 114, you have massive resistance. just gotten through at least the best week. samsung effect, it's ever going to be from a market perspective. >> so we're seeing the best right now. you bring law of large numbers. >> this is not a stock i'm buying tomorrow. >> all right. okay. so this got us thinking back at the old englewood cliffs about apple. relative to other tech titans. we're going to play our favorite

game. "would you rather." would you rather amongst tech titans. apple or facebook? pete. >> right now, i said at the very top of the show, i don't think it's a must-buy, necessarily. i did buy t because i like it. but if you give me the choice between those two names right now, i think there is more momentum under zuckerberg. more things in the pipeline under zuckerberg. the acquisitions he's made, i would go with facebook. >> for my book, a much bigger bet in facebook by a lot than apple. for -- >> on the opposite side of that, i don't own facebook, and i have owned apple and continue to own -- added to apple. so i guess i'm talking against my book right now. because i should be more positioned in facebook than i am. >> why isn't your book aligned with what you just said? >> because when you look at the run that facebook had, just like apple, this run has been extraordinarily fast up to these particular levels, call it 130. so that's been a fast run too. i expect some sort of a pullback out of facebook, as well. tim is talking about apple, maybe as if peaking out.

i don't necessarily agree. because when i look at apple, the one difference is valuation. but i think in terms of the most momentum, i think you look at facebook. >> next up here, would you rather apple or google? tim. >> google. and my book says that. i'm long google. i don't have a position on apple. i think google in this environment, where people are string gently looking at stocks, a phenomenal balance sheet. but in terms of invasion and places where you can have up side and youtube as we said all these things about facebook, i think you've got that same exposure with google. and yet you've got a cored cash generated business like apple. maybe priced in relative growth terms, actually, better than apple. so google. >> dan? >> i agree with that. i think google, you know, relative to their expected growth, north of 20% for eps and sales too at -- where it's trading here to me, makes total sense. that being said, i'm going to tell you guys this. you may fall off your chairs here. i was very near ready to buy apple. >> when? >> if it got to a nine handle. >> why didn't you, though?

why -- >> can i just say something? and i mean this seriously. i am not all hyped up about this cycle. i think what's really going to happen, if they ever have a hit on the wearable front and then we get towards that ten-year anniversary of the iphone, that's going to be a big focus. i do not think this is going to be a big upgrade cycle. so i would not be being it at 112, 113, and closed at 111. google has the potential to break out. i do think that apple has the -- the potential to disappoint and go back below 100 bucks, where it almost was monday morning. >> last up, apple or microsoft. pete. >> i still think he's got a few things up his sleeve. i would say -- can i go right back to the google? i'll take apple over google. and the reason i say that one -- sorry. i know -- >> you don't know how to play "would you rather." >> looking at this valuation -- money, they've got it. growth, ecosystem. so for all those reasons that

name is better. microsoft, still with nadella early in his tenure, a better name right now. >> what do you say? >> to me, this is a time rise in trade. i actually think that apple maybe has some more room to run. if we're questioning where microsoft has shown and priced into satya that dell's cloud. i think microsoft has actually gotten themselves into a new position where they have cash cows and relevancy they didn't have. >> dan? >> i probably would go with apple over microsoft. and to me, i agree with everything you're saying. but when i think about office 365 and azure, i don't really think of these as the next leg of growth. to me, especially with office 365, a repositioning of their existing product line. azure, so far behind. >> but -- >> irrelevant. >> i know it is, but i don't believe they're going to be able to compete with amazon. i would rather own apple than microsoft. >> let me get this straight. basically, except in your short-term scenario, everybody would rather own the other choice over apple.

>> uh -- well, maybe not -- i find myself in the unusual situation of agreeing with everything dan just said regarding microsoft versus apple. but yeah, google and facebook -- i would rather own them and i do rather own them. >> you do. >> i do. >> i just think if you -- first of all, how can we sit here and say we love apple when three weeks ago, when apple was trading at 98, 95, 98 bucks, we were, you know, not all that bullish. i think we were pointing out headwinds. i wasn't running for cover on the stock. i actually felt like there was opportunities and as we get into this refresh cycle, places for it to outperform. i think it's disingenuous to say let's buy apple now, especially after it's gone from -- to 114. >> we're going to say -- iphone 7 was going to be a terrible phone with no innovation, and here we are saying it's better than expected. >> dan said that. >> and shows that apple can, in fact, innovate. >> here's the thing. and i think this is a consensus among even the most pessimistic people. what they have in that phone is obviously -- the best smartphone on the market right now.

it's just not that exciting. this is a company that's made their bones with industrial design. nothing has changed, right? and they're not convincing us based on a tricked out new camera that this -- you have to go out and spend $750 to upgrade. i'm telling you, what happened this week, there is no new news. this phone is good. and people expected it to be good. what about this -- the watch? that wasn't it particularly en novative, and anything stickily interesting. the ear buds, i know that people are saying this is -- >> it's not about the watch. never has been. >> but, tim, it's 70% of their sales are coming from one product. which is what her concern is, a value buyer of a company that trades, 12 times earnings. it really has to be about something else. if you talk about law of large numbers -- >> we're talking about services. >> services. >> services. >> and growth. >> 19% last quarter and 12% of their overall sales. better start to happen. so apple music has 17 million subscribers. you know what spotify just announced today? 40 million. >> how many users do they have,

though? >> not the key to the whole -- >> the users are the services. >> huge part of their ecosystem, tim. >> apple pay -- i think it's the entire loyalty of the brand that hows people to monetize throughout the system. and so apple music isn't a terribly exciting thing, except for the fact apple has 1 billion subs. >> you guys were falling out of your chairs when china was growing -- services in the last quarter grew 19%. >> we've got to go. >> 19%. >> i'll take 19%. >> all right. up next -- >> huge base. >> bad news -- continuing -- i am talking, people! >> sorry. >> bad news just keeps on coming for wells fargo and federal prosecutors. plus, officially game day for twitter with the launch of its streaming apps. but will the move actually drive their engagement? julia boorstin has a special report. and stocks that are not benefitting from america's wage gains and falling crude oil

prices. we'll tell what that is when "fast money" returns. ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

didn't the buck stop with you on this? >> well, of course. it stops with all of us. and especially me. no, i'm the leader. i get it. i'm -- i said right off the bat, i -- when we don't meet our goals of 100% right, i'm accountable. and i'm leading this company. and leading it forward through this. >> that was wells fargo ceo, john stumpf last night on "mad money." and today things get worse. wells fargo is now officially being investigated by federal prosecutors, saying the probe is in the early stages. that sending the stock lower by nearly 1% late in the day. dan. >> i give him a lot of credit for going on with jim last night. jim kind of came at him and i don't think he did a particularly great job. i think the fact that the stock closed at a new low today and the news creates a scenario with a lot of uncertainty. i think you can extrapolate this a little bit. i'm going tell you, three things with banks.

this is going to hang over from a sentiment standpoint. the fed won't be raising rates until december, so bank stocks come in a little bit. in this sort of environment, these are stocks you don't want to own. i can't imagine there were 5,300 employees at wells fargo doing this stuff with incentives and wasn't going on at bank of america or citigroup or u.s. bancorp. so to me this has the potential to expand. >> and to clarify, stumf did not do a good job defending. >> i drive agree with that. he has to be very, very aggressive with the maya kulpas. >> on clawbacks, said that's an issue for the board to consider. >> needs to be aggressive. not surprising we see this news about investigation. there should be one. but this is why i think they need to be very, very aggressive. >> on friday, we had a very vigorous discussion. saying it's not going to be a political issue. has that changed -- you actually

agreed with him. >> i did agree, yes. >> does it change now? >> well, i think if they do a better job, which i think they can do, then i think they can get in front of this. >> what's interesting, wells fargo to this point traded a premium because it was perceived to have less regulatory risk. you can't tell me in a stock that -- the dmanlds on a higher roe are high. >> still ahead, oil is falling, wages are rising. so why are restaurant stocks in the gutter? we will explain later on. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> hello, i'm johnnie cab, where can i take you tonight? >> weird. but get used to it. because self-driving cars are closer than you think. and it could signal a major shift in the economy. we'll tell you the stocks poised to cash in. plus -- ♪ here's what david stockman, a

former reagan adviser, says trump will do to the stock market if elected. and stockman says that's exactly what america needs to be great again. he will be here to explain why, when "fast money" returns. it's scary when the lights go out. people get anxious and my office gets flooded with calls. so many things can go wrong. it's my worst nightmare. every second that power is out, my city's at risk. siemens digital grid manages and reroutes power, so service can be restored within seconds. priority number one is keeping those lights on. it takes ingenuity to defeat the monsters that live in the dark. john back and forth

this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. they say the world does not revolve around you. but today, maybe it can. i am helping 1-800-flowers find the perfect gift out of trillions of combinations. and working with the new york genome center

to find treatments as personal as dna. and i am helping sesame street make education unique to every child. hello, my name is watson. working together, we can outthink anything. welcome back to "fast money." twitter, launching new made for tv apps just in time for the first nfl live stream tomorrow. julia boorstin has all of the details from l.a. hey, julia. >> hey, melissa, all part of twitter's big new focus on video. live video in particular. twitter launching new apps for apple tv, fire tv and microsoft's xbox 1. these are ahead of the centerpiece of the video's strategy.

ten life streaming nfl games starting tomorrow night. the apps designed for set top boxes and will stream video and tweets to users without requiring them to create a twitter account or log in. a big departure from the mobile news feed format. you won't be able to send certain accounts. but feature all the video content that twitter reasonable secured the rights to stream. they're featuring sports partners in particular. including the nfl, major league baseball, the nba and pac-12 networks, among others, plus there will be some videos in there from twitter's periscope and vine apps. twitter shares rose nearly 3% at today's highs on hopes this push into live video will help twitter jump start its user and revenue growth. but twitter shares are still down by nearly a third over the past year on persistent questions about the company's long-term growth potential. what happens next for twitter and for ceo jack dorsey hinges on the success, the key to

breaking out from these questions that twitter has been dogged with about how to grow its core "logged in," user base. >> thank you. pete najarian, i go to you first. the idea that you can access twitter on your tv is great. that way you're not watching on nfl game on this tiny phone. but you don't need to create an account, which gets at the problem of how do you count access to twitter without having an account tied to you. >> and this whole thing is about video ads and all the rest of that and try to figure out are they going to monetize all these deals, different streamings, sports franchises they're trying to tie them to from the pac-12 to the nfl to the nba and all of that. are they going to be able to get into that lucrative market of the video ads and be able to make money. that's the big question, and that's the big problem. i own twitter primarily for the idea i think at some point in time, somebody takes them. and i only do it through options. but that's the only reason i own it. i would not own the stock. i only own calls because of that. >> i own the stock. i think this is huge news. and i've got to tell you, when

they originally announce's these streaming details, i was skeptical for the same reason -- i had one screen. i'm not going to watch on my laptop. i want to engage. so when i'm watching tv or watching a game, what do you have in your hand? your smartphone and reading people's tweets and tweeting about it. i think this is an important piece of the puzzle and i think as they broaden out to video offering -- even into -- >> will emergencimillennials do? you're a millennial. that's the key to this whole thing. >> the most-used app on my new apple tv is youtube. my kids are constantly searching on youtube. that is user-generated video. this is live streaming. so i just think the ability to watch the game tomorrow night -- i'm going to do this. and then tweet about it. >> do you think as an audience -- >> i think google is going to buy them. >> do you think the sports world is going to open up and create -- the rabid nature of sports fans is very -- people that are on twitter, i love twitter. do you think this is going to open up a new base? because this is a whole problem. >> what is compelling about

this, you do not need a paid tv subscription to access twitter on your tv. so if you've got cord-cutters out there, they don't need to pay for cable to watch an nfl game. they can stream it. so that's a whole other audience, potentially. up next, former reagan adviser, david stockman, says trump will be a disaster for the economy in the markets, but get this. that's exactly what america needs. what does he mean by that? he'll be here to explain, next. and later, a trend in autos. if you're in pittsburgh today, you might run across one of uber's self-driving cars running down the street. which stocks are set to surge on the fastest auto trend in the game. we are naming names, ahead on "fast." and reunited three decades later for a tour that sold out in three minutes. and your cisco hybrid cloud handled millions of ticket orders without breaking a sweat. before all of this, [ crash ]

the experts at cdw orchestrated a cisco hybrid cloud solution. scalability by cisco. orchestration by cdw. new biwhat are we gonna do?... how about we pump more into promotions? ♪ nah. what else? what if we hire more sales reps? ♪ nah. what else? what if we digitize the whole supply chain? so people can customize their bike before they buy it. that worked better than expected. i'll dial it back. yeah, dial it back. just a little. live business, powered by sap. when you run live, you run simple. seconds can mean the difference between life and death.

for partners in health, time is life. we have 18,000 people around the world. the microsoft cloud helps our entire staff stay connected and work together in real time to help those that need it. the ability to collaborate changes how we work. what we do together changes how we live.

welcome back to "fast money." a mixed day on wall street as the dow and s&p close at their lowest level since you recall july. getting a boost from apple, soared more than 3% to a year-to-date high. the father of the modern tax code says donald trump will

spark a market meltdown but that's exactly what we need. david stockman is here to explain why trump could save the u.s. economy. plus, is one of the hottest trades of the year finally over? we'll take you behind the million-dollar bet the breakdown is only getting started. first to the move of the day, the xle energy etf as crude oil fell 3% and a glut of inventory. so are any of these energy stocks worth a look? tim? >> well, i think inventory reports have been -- arguably garbage. i know that's a controversial thing to say. but to me it's all about demand and we've gotten reports this week from the iea and opec that global demand is up 1.3 million barrels and it's going to hold there. so to me, i also think we have tremendous tail winds from a dollar that is sideways at best. everything going on with treasury rates right now to me is boj driven. if anything, that means less they can do, which means the end is going to rally and put downward pressure on the dollar, which means buy oil. >> pete, stocks?

>> it's been a grinding market. i'm in the xle. i'm actually in the calls and incredible number of energy stocks presently. why? because they're very nin expensive right now. volatility crushed until the last three or four trading sessions. i've been involved in some of these names. just because i think we're in a bit of a trap in terms of where oil is sitting, seems to be sitting somewhere between 43 and 48 and now on the other end, the xle back on the lower end and hovering near that 200-day moving average. >> and holding. >> this is really important. exxon, the grand daddy of them all, broke the 200-day today for the first time. broke down -- trading at five-month lows right now. you know, what because of that dividend, it showed great relative strength to the rest of the energy complex here. i think that's one you really have to keep an eye on. i think xle has a couple more dollars down side. >> lower oil means americans have more money in their pocket. but that's not helping one group of stocks. breaking is down, a man always rolling in dough, cnbc's dom

chu. >> melissa, i don't feel like i'm rolling in the dough, but apparently as a country, we're doing okay on the income front. if you believe the latest data out of the census bureau, it says the median level of household income in america rose to $56.5,000 in 2015. a 5.2% increase over 2014. and that gain is significant. because it's the biggest gain in house hold incomes on record. going back to 1967. it's a little too early to declare a victory, just yet. because we're still below peak levels of household income back during the late 1990s and the tech boom. so what's curious, if there is higher measures of income, why aren't consumers spending any of it on going out to eat? so here's what we're talking about. you check out shares of cracker barrel today, which took a big hit after profits missed some analysts' forecasts and offered a less optimistic forecast. the stock has lost nearly a fifth of its value since hitting a record high back in june. it's not the only fast casual

eatery to lose momentum. sonic on a downward trend since april and similar for olive garden, darden and dine equity. so melissa, the question for many investors, whether or not retail stocks have dropped too far, or are they down for a good reason, because consumers may just not be spending any extra income on dining out and that the outlook perhaps isn't all that rosie. so restaurant stocks certainly a focus, guys. back over to you. >> thanks,dom. so the poor performance of these stocks isn't the only thing showing americans are spending less an eating out. take a look at this chart from michelle meyer at bank of america, which shows the recent decline in credit spending at large chain restaurants. is this a trend of a problem? does it signify a problem with the consumer, karen? >> we don't know enough to know. i think there are so many other places that consumer could be spending money, including saving money. so i don't know -- i think it's sort of too early. we talked about this a little during the day. one of the potentiality actives is people going to different

kinds of restaurants. maybe stepping it up a little bit. not going to a chain restaurant, not an olive garden, maybe a more mom and pop, maybe something a tiny bit fancier. i don't think we have enough data yet to make that -- to say restaurants are dead or not dead, but that that's not where the consumer wants to go any more. i don't believe that. >> if you extrapolate to more traditional retail, we saw massive fwaps in disappointing results from tj maxx, lowe's, and let's not forget, mcdonald's down 13% from 52-week highs. i think there are a lot of stocks that don't act particularly well. >> to karen's point, they may spend elsewhere. if we look at the payment processors, stocks doing pretty well here. visa and master card, they do processing of payments. >> that's amazon. >> and that's what's -- you're seeing it in amazon and you're seeing it in the home improvement stores and in auto sales and in housing. so the consumer is spending. but to say that the consumer is spending in the same way and

there is no question that there's -- there are health insurance costs more, education costs more. who cares that gas prices are lower. people don't have as much money to spend, even though household income is up. i don't think it's rosie times. but consumer spending is not dead. >> the spending -- hit it on the nail on the head. people are spending on the home. and the one aspect of tj maxx that continues to be strong is home goods. when you look across the varies levels and the burlingtons of the world and discounters, that's where they seem to be. if you have an involvement in that space, anything to do with the home, you're great. otherwise to karen's point, the money is being spread everywhere. >> right. >> and is maybe some of the spending is shifting from certain areas to other areas. because we're all fickle in terms of -- >> do you still have that bear skin rug in your living room? >> it's up on the wall now. >> you still own tj maxx. >> but i'm not in the stock right now. >>. still ahead, uber's self-driving cars hit the streets of pittsburgh today. what stocks are poised to cash in on this important trend. plus, david stockman says

donald trump will be a disaster for the markets. but that's exactly what america needs. what is he talking about? he will be here to explain. much more "fast money" right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." donald trump is closing in on hillary clinton and even taking the lead in an important swing state. eamon javers is in d.c. with the latest. hi, eamon. >> reporter: hi, melissa. a picture of a race tightening nationally. what they suggest about where we're going in november here. starting with the overall national head-to-head picture between donald trump and hillary clinton. this looks like a fairly significant margin for hillary clinton at 48%. trump at 43%. this, according to the new quinnipiac university poll. but when you break this out by the four candidates who may be on the ballot in november, clinton 41, trump 39, then libertarian gary johnson getting 13% of the vote. and green party candidate, jill stein with 4%. it is a much slimmer margin for hillary clinton now with all four candidates on the race than just with the two.

clinton 41, trump 39 there. and then look at some of the swing states, starting in ohio. this is a new cnn poll out this afternoon. in the four-way race, trump 46, clinton 41, johnson 8 and stein 2%. so that's a big margin for donald trump in ohio, according to cnn this afternoon. the other all-important state that we know so well from so many past election cycles, florida and look at these numbers for donald trump. 47% for trump, 44% for clinton. johnson at 6% and stein there just at 1%. but when you break these out with all four candidates in the poll, you start to see hillary clinton's lead diminish nationally and in some of these statewide polls and some of the swing states, at least according to cnn this afternoon, a trump margin for victory, melissa. interesting shifting going on in this race as we head into the fall. >> all right. thank you, eamon. eamon javers in washington. according to our next guest, a trump victory would spell chaos for the markets, but that's not necessarily a bad

thing. david stockman is former omb director under president reagan and author of the new book "trumped, a nation on the ruin." what kind of chaos are we talking about and what specifically spurs that chaos? >> you're having a pretty raucous session here tonight so i think it's good we're talking about trumped. i think the markets have totally underestimated why the phenomena has happened. his odds of winning and the consequences if he does. i think it's pretty evidence that the elephant in the room of american politics is the fed. and the fed has been killing flyover america. and i'll explain that. that's what my book does. flyover america is that huge white space between the two coasts. and we have had a enormous loss of jobs. everybody knows that. real bread winner jobs. real wages are down. investment, if you look at real investment plant and equipment after depreciation, it's

negative 20% for the last 15 years. and that's why the they're in revolt, coming out. and trump a couple days ago said the fed is the problem. he said this whole thing is artificial. the markets are massively overvalued. and janet yellen should be ashamed of herself. i think he's right about that, and when the market figures out that there is a new sheriff in town, there is potentially a whole new regime that basically isn't the washington wall street establishment that's been running things for the last 25 years, i think there will be panic, because there's nothing to hold this market up. >> isn't that imply mr. trump, if he were to be elected, would have some sort of control or influence on the federal reserve? >> yes, i think he surely would. because if you have someone who is elected on a mandate to end the -- the -- you know, damage

that's being done to flyover america by en inflation targeting, it's a horrible thing. 2% sounds good to the keynesians, but if you're in a job competitive with the china pricing goods or the india price in services, you don't want inflation. you want less inflation. if you're in flyover america and trying to make ends meet and prepare for a retirement and you're getting zero return on your savings, it's not a good thing. if you're in flyover america and your employers are borrowing trillions of dollars to buy back stock and do the crazy monsanto thing today, you're not being benefited, you're not a happy camper. so i think at the end of the day, trump is going to go after the fed and appropriately so. he's going to say end wage -- end inflation targeting. he's going to say stop punishing the savers. he's going to say stop siding with wall street.

>> maybe that is the case. but it can't be that the fed only -- there is monetary policy, fiscal policy. and i think even if he wins, you're going to have a house that's very divided. he's the most polarizing figure we probably have ever had. it's hard to see how that presidency would be able to drive forward some of what he's -- what you're suggesting. >> i agree with you. i don't think anything is going to happen. i think there's going to be total paralysis in almost political carnage in washington. nothing will be done on fiscal policy, because after all, we have a $20 trillion debt already. and it's going to be a total divided paralyzed congress. so nothing will happen there. but if it becomes clear that the fed is no longer, you know, your friend that's running this whole bubble economy, then there be panic here in wall street. >> so getting back to the whole -- i mean, so it's going to be chaos. you explained that. >> yeah. >> why ultimately will that be good for the u.s. economy? >> because we have to get off this bubble finance. we have to get the fed out of

the financial markets. we've got to let interest rates to their job. we've got to let, you know, the capital markets allocate capital, and not simply function as a casino that trades by the day and hour. >> so somebody has got to rip the bandage off. >> somebody has got to rip it, big-time. and so far, no one has been willing to do it. the last republican administration thought it was a wonderful thing. and now we see that we have come to the very edge of it. this is why flyover america is, as i say, the rubes are in revolt, because they realize this system is rigged and it's basically benefited a narrow slice of the bicoastal elites who have the financial assets. and we're at the point of inflexion, we're at the point of an ethical change. >> david, we've got to let you go. always great to see you, david stockman, author of the new book, so look for it, "trumped, a nation on the brink of ruin and how to bring it back." of course, there's been a lot of

debate about the impact trump is having on the market. we thought we would play a game of fast or fiction here on the three biggest trades associated with the republican presidential nominee. first up. trump is bad for the mexican peso, fast or fiction, tim? >> fast. except i would say this. the peso was in trouble well before trump was a consideration on the political sphere. mexico has had a lot of problems and emerging market problems versus the dollar. no question, we're at the brexit lows in the peso because of where trump is. >> now to the vix. when trump rises in the polls, so does volatility. look at the chart there. pete, what do you say? >> fully understandable. whether you like or dislike hillary clinton, you at least have a known there. you have some experience, you have seen what she has done in politics. and right now, just as stockman was talking about, it's a complete unknown, and the only known is that people are going to be very confused, there could be chaos. and if that's the case, obviously volatility is going -- >> fast or fiction? >> i'm going to say fast.

>> last up, trump is bad for the bond market. dan. >> well, i think it's ridiculous notion to think if he is elected he's going to be in favor of rate increases right out of the gate. absolutely ridiculous notion. and the other thing to that he's talking about in the white space america, trump has been the single largest beneficiary. when you think about how his -- pandering to those people. total bs. total bs. and so to me, i think you have a guy who is trying to get elected, but he's going to be in favor of the exact same policies that have basically put our treasury yields in a 20-year decline. >> so no impact on the bond market then is what you're saying. >> fiction. >> but isn't -- you know, levered real estate investor to have low interest rates. >> no longer in charge of the bond market anyway. and i would make the argument that, again -- the boj is more in charge of our bond market and we see the backup in treasury yields. it's all that's going on. all right.

speaking of bonds, bearish bets from the options pit today. dan, walk over to the smart board, get on over there. >> look at that strut. >> look at you! >> that is the 30-year bond etf -- 30-year treasury today. put volume three times that of calls. interestingly, on the first day in five days that the tlt actually closed up here. so when the -- etf was trading about 134-30, there was a buyer of 6,000 in november. 130 puts, paying 168 to open. what's interesting about this trade here, obviously, if you look at the one-year chart, we had this period of time where it was monetary policy was kind of up in the air. we know we had a fed moving to a bit more hawkish, but really not ready to move. then we had this breakout here and so now as the -- for some reason, i don't know why people have in their mind that the fed was going to raise interest rates in september or possibly november. that's not happening. fed funds eaches are pricing about a 20% chance of that now. people are betting for this 30 level. the tlt. i just want to make one point.

a lot of people think we made a massive double bottom, ten-year treasury yield. i suspect it's in a down trend. this is that 20-year thing we're talking about in u.s. treasury yields. i would be very surprised if we see that thing over 2.5% any time soon. so to me, tlt, buying puts for the november expiration. i don't like it. i suspect we see it higher. >> all right. thanks for that, dan. check the full show, 5:30 p.m. eastern time on friday. still ahead, self-driving uber cars picking up passengers in pittsburgh today. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

narrator: adventure can be found anywhere but the best place to start is in the forest. kubo: i spy something beginning with..."s" beetle: snow. kubo: no. beetle: snow covered trees. monkey: nothing to do with snow. narrator: head outside to discover incredible animals and beautiful plants that come together to create an unforgettable adventure. kubo: wow! narrator: so grab your loved ones monkey: don't even. narrator: and explore a world of possibilities. kubo: come on, this way. narrator: visit discovertheforest.org to find the closest forest or park to you.

self-driving ubers, now a very real thing. if you live in pittsburgh, that is. phil lebeau has more on the story. i hear you actually got to try one out. >> i did. and you know, i've done a number of drives with autonomous drive vehicles. there have been a few where they're on the science project side. but not driving around pittsburgh. the reason uber is developing this car, a prototype, and there are several on the roads of pittsburgh now. is because we're in the middle of a race amongst a number of automakers and tech firms when

it comes to taking self-driving cars and ride share and putting them together. you've got uber, the chinese firm bidu, gm and lyft. and ford saying, look, by 2021, we're going to have a self-driving car that will be used for ride sharing, car sharing. any companies out there interested in that. and in terms of what they're doing in pittsburgh right now, as far as uber right now, they've got 20 of these cars that are 14 -- ford fusions, modified. they've got 20 cameras and lasers, 7 lasers on top of the vehicles. they are test-driving them with an engineer and driver in the front seat. and they believe that this is a good place to start in pittsburgh. but don't expect this to expand nationwide any time soon. >> did depends on how people react to it and how well the technology progresses. we're learning a lot from driving the vehicles on the roads. and so i don't have any

predictions on how quickly across the country we'll do at this moment. but, you know, the safer it is, the sooner we're going to roll it out nationwide. >> you know, the question has come up, what type of technology is inside of these uber cars. we do know that some of the technology, some came from bell adine, some developed by uber itself. obviously, there are a number of other tech firms that have technology that are a part of these vehicles here. the reason we're showing you mobile tim seymour eye is because today the chairman was out in an interview overseas saying at least one hortwo more major partnerships the company expects to announce this year and that's why there is so much activity in this space, melissa. you guys talk about it on a regular basis. uber is definitely going to be a player in terms of determining what happens with self-driving ride share vehicles. >> right. and i think the most compelling part of this story, phil, is not only that google has basically bled executives, apple is rebooting its project. titan, the self-striving car. but the notion that uber, if you

think about the fleet, able to equip more cars with that technology, self-driving vehicles, it's all about learning by miles driven. so think about the number of miles a fleet of ubers drives in any given period. it's got to be almost -- i mean, at some point like what teslas drive. >> similar. it's a small fleet right now in pittsburgh. but they're learning every day, just as tesla is, as google is. i mean, they're all taking in that -- that knowledge, and even the established automakers are doing the same thing. and that's why this is -- this technology is coming along so quickly. >> got it. phil, thank you. fascinating story. phil lebeau. so anybody have a trade on mobileeye? >> i own puts in mobile eye. you look at the stock, it's come down from 48, 49. here it is in the 44s now. and what's the next thing? what's going to be the catalyst? if this is priced in, where is the stock going next? you look at valuation and everything else, you just wonder, is this going to continue to slip lower? >> still ahead, final trade.

stay tuned. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. whmade plastics that tmake them lighter?rs the lubricants that improved fuel economy. even technology to make engines more efficient. what company does all this? exxonmobil, that's who. we're working on all these things to make cars better and use less fuel. helping you save money and reduce emissions.

and you thought we just made the gas. energy lives here. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. across new york state, from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive.

let us help grow your company's tomorrow- today at business.ny.gov final trade. pete, dressed so sharply today. >> oh, thanks. >> is that from the '80s? >> let's get right to it. tjx, it's going higher. >> tim. >> long citibank, over wells fargo. >> karen. >> i would rather google. >> dan.

>> yeah, this one -- wells fargo situation, not a item pivot in a tea pot. >> see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. strong demand is the missing panacea for this market. among the many reasons why we've developed this vicious