accommodation while making sure the fiscal piece is going forward, those are fighting words. >> you really want to have confidence in who is running that thing if it was not independent. >> oh, boy. guys, thank you for joining us here on "closing bell." that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, tim seymour and dan nathan. bank of america's head of high yield is back and he says forget the fed. bank of japan could be one of the biggest rifbs to the market right now. fedex rallying and adobe surging on a top and bottom line beat. we will bring you the headlines. and later, angelina filing for divorce from brad pitt! but that's not the only breakup that's got the commodities team on edge. we'll tell you the correlation

coming undone and why we're so worried. first, what will determine the fate of this rally and that is the central bank double header. two key decisions from the bank of japan and federal deserve loom. so what is your central bank playbook tomorrow? what are you watching and how are you trading it? bk, kick it off. >> you've got to watch the dollar. that's the transmission mechanism for all of this, both just the central bank policy but also what the s&p 500 is going to do. we saw last year when the fed raised rates, about a month later started the s&p 500 turnover. so that's the key here. the bank of japan tonight is actually going to be very interesting. they have so many different options, nobody has a real good reed on them. but, again, i go back to the currency market, open 24 hours a day. uup is the way. into these meetings, long u.s. dollar, the way to play it. >> the dollar is positioned right at the 200, right below at the 200 day moving average, an

enormously important level for the dollar and it hasn't gone into a meeting to being possibly broken out. ryan's point is that -- i look at japan and say the bigger determine in answer of the dollar is going to be the ecb and boj and i think the boj has a lot of pressure to get away from negative interest rates. own 40% of the bond market and i think they're going to disappoint to the down side, which ultimately, maybe not great for global growth, although i'm not sure anyone was convinced japan was doing much in resuscitating global demand. bottom line, japan is responsible for the backup in rates and u.s. ten-year and not the fed. removing brexit from bond yields is what the last month is about and that's not a bad thing. >> in the past month, there is, of course, a lot of fed jaw-boning going on. >> they were telling us they were going to race rates. >> and we have also seen a 1.6% increase in the dollar index. >> right. and i think everybody is just

trying to get the interpretation going. the fed has been out there. and essentially, they were telling us, hey, look, we are going to be raising. and then suddenly the numbers started to change and the shift in numbers tells me that obviously and steve liesman had great numbers today about the idea they're not going to raise and kick it out until later in the year. the bank of japan is going to be something that's going to be more in focus. people have accepted the idea we're probably not going to see any kind of a rate hike tomorrow out of our fed. and because of that, i think it's kind of business as usual, quite frankly. i tell you what. if we drop, i'm buying. if we start to go up, i'm selling. that's what i think tomorrow. because right now, i think it's setting -- ourselves up for what we have seen in volatility. people have been selling volatility the last couple days in a big way. selling puts to the down side. that way if the market falls apart -- >> what causes us to rally or decline tomorrow? let's play the scenario out. the fed does nothing, which is consensus, right?

>> probably the case. and then -- >> so we trade higher. >> >> we trade higher and time to take some profits off the table. especially what we've gotten from the numbers recently have not been good. so they're not actually taking the data and they're actually going to be reacting. because they said they're going to. >> yeah, listen. i think for all intents and purns what you just talked about, 94 to 96 in the last few weeks or so. we have seen the yield and the ten-year go back to 1.7% and for all intents and purposes, i don't think the fed ever intended to raise before this election in the first week in november. but you've had tightening, right? you had -- they have been able to do that. and i think they would have been in a very, very tough spot if the ten-year yield was back at 1.3, if the dixie was back towards the 2016 lows. then it would have made them look like they're being way, way, way too dovish in the face of data at their targets. as far as unemployment and increasing, you know, inflation. >> but the job was telling us -- >> but -- i know you're going to say -- i think -- a much -- play

out the conversation! say what bk is going to say. i'm curious. what is he going to say? i'm curious. >> well, you guys are all miscalculating the potential for the fed to go tomorrow. you sound like big gross, you sound like -- >> sounds like me. >> okay, fair enough. >> i guess what i'm saying is, listen, the fed when they are tightening monetary policy they're not in the business of surprising. i know -- >> what do you make of all of the -- what do you make of the volatility of two weeks ago when it all it took were comments from a number of fed officials -- >> that wasn't a surprise. >> everything everybody was talking about was enough to spook markets. >> you're also talking about a historically low period in volatility. nobody around, volume was nothing. and, you know, so the market moved 50 bips, 70 bips s&p on that language. didn't mean anything. dick fisher on tv, the market dropped. they're not going tomorrow, they're not going a few days before the election and they will go in december.

>> and what does the market do? geese goes higher. >> yeah, goes higher. >> you go along with it? >> i think it again becomes focus is trump and whether he's going to get in or not and that's really the volatility. >> doesn't this come down to -- what's the bad thing about owning equities in this environment when, in fact, you feel business as usual means a sideways drift high eveer. there is not a lot of room for up side in equity valuations but to say the bottom has to fall out of this thing i think is crazy and presents as pete says, opportunities to buy it. >> all right. our next guest says forget the fed because it could be the bank of japan. mike is here to tell us what is at stake. he's, of course, the head of high yield strategy at bank of america merrill lynch. always good to see you. >> good to see you too. >> why do you think boj is important? >> dan, i love the conviction. >> but you're wrong. >> no -- >> with all due respect. >> i love the conviction but i

don't know why you all can't be right? i mean, pete, i agree with you. >> okay. >> and dan, i agree with you, as well. i think there is a much higher probability that the fed is going to go -- than what the market anticipates. but the base case can certainly be december. the boj, to answer that question, directly, the boj is the bigger issue, because if you believe in this whole flow of funds story that $400 billion, $500 billion of assets have come to the united states because of negative interest rates, globally, then any sort of change to that flow of funds is going to affect risk assets. both on the corporate side, treasury side and equity side. and that's what i'm most concerned about. that's a boj story, ecb story. >> so what you're talking about is what everybody calls the carry trade. you borrow and come over here and buy high yield, which is one of your specialty areas. >> it is. >> hyg is the etf. if the boj comes out and says we're not going to go to negative rates any more. and they disappoint does high

yield hyg go down? >> ig potentially more than high yield, actually. because it becomes a duration story. and in a way, i would rather be in single b or hy g, high-yield credit than high-duration ig type credit. >> what's the worst-case scenario on boj? >> base case, they continue with stimulative action. they might go to a range to 70 to $90 billion in purchases. the message is going to be they're going to continue to be stimulative. the market takes it as being sneakily hawkish. >> isn't the boj confronting institutions in japan getting destroyed by negative interest rates? there is a lot of political and domestic pressure on these guys and ultimately, boj changing course isn't necessarily a validation their course has worked and says we're in trouble and a reason to buy yield and i know the other side, your credit argument, there is no growth to support the yield.

but really, a yield compression has been winning out no matter what. you don't think there is any growth out there anyway. >> i totally agree with that. what i worry about, and i think you're right, the banking sector, pension funds and insurance companies in japan have experienced a tremendous amount of stress. because of negative interest rates. it's not just in japan, but in the u.s. and europe, as well. but they can do things to manage that. they can say we're going to change our purchases maybe to the front end in order to steepen the yield curve to help out the banks. but that still could be taken as somewhat hawkish. and the market could really sell off on that. because they're looking at it as, okay, you're removing some sort of accommodation, potentially. >> so how does this all impact the equity markets. not your expertise e per se, but you have talked about risks to the market. >> if you get a risk-off scenario and it plays out, certainly not good for equities. >> wow. that's not good, right? >> the dip, though. ultimately, what happens, if you get this selloff, right? and banks basically -- central

banks react to that, and they say, oh, you know, we're still going to be very, very come it -- >> you think there is a central bank floor effectively -- because if there is volatility in the markets, they're going to take measures that will support the market. >> correct. central banks are very, very conditioned to react to markets. >> all right. michael, thank you. bank of america, merle lynch. what do you think? >> i think 2050 and the s&p 500 is probably a floor if they don't raise tomorrow and they don't raise in november and then it looks like hillary starts gaining some steam. i do not think you will see the s&p 500 below 2050 for the balance of 2016 if that happens. >> whoa, whoa, blow me away. that is very enlighteningened thinking. and i think -- >> backhanded comment. >> i know. >> but what everybody is saying here is that it's not just a central bank put that's been in place for the last couple years. it's been in place since 2008. right. >> and there is now the ability of central banks to be in our

lives, which we all know are unnatural. the trade to me is actually to buy japan. i think the ewj, if you look at valuations in japan, everyone so worried about valuations here, historically times to buy japan is when the boj was flooding market and the yen was going down and you wanted to buy equities because they're exporting stocks. actually, the down side of the yen is very limited here. japanese -- ewj is the way to do it. >> i'm in dxj, with a hedge on the japanese yen. so if you think the yen is going down, which i do, you can buy that. i think that's the better way. so i kind of agree. >> i polite agree with you on the dxj and other areas you can go. i think we still have to be can conscious of the idea. in the equity market, those are the stocks that i would be targeting. if we're seeing a selloff, i'm looking at not just the r run-of-the-mill, hey, these guys have a great yield. the companies we know through earnings, we see the growth -- >> like? intel. i bought intel today and a couple chinese stocks that have

some yield. >> which are? one of them is 58. com. >> don't miss "fast money" tomorrow, we are sitting down with ceo and co founder jeffrey gundlach tomorrow here on "fast money." all contrarian calls saying now is the time to buy the european banks. we'll explain. plus, americans are cutting the cable tv cord at an alarming rate. just how fast in which cable companies could be hardest hit. julia boorstin has a special report. and later, the kun chart shows the fed is running out of reasons not to hike rates this year. we'll show you what that is when "fast money" returns. yep.

stirred it... mm-hmm. drowned it again... mm-hmm. and now just feel if it's cold. yeah. cool. [camera shutter clicks]

[whistling a tune] smokey just gave me a bear hug. i know. i already posted it.

welcome back to "fast money." i'm seema mody. microsoft raising its dividend to 39 cents per share, giving a yield of roughly 2.7%. microsoft also launching a $40 billion buyback program as part of a new share repurchase program. on track to complete a current repurchase program by the end of the year. the stock is higher 3%

year-to-da year-to-date. >> thank you, seema. pete, is this one of the dividend yield stocks? >> i would throw this in there and also what you're talking about some of these names in tech, whether they're chips or the microsoft ciscos of the world, with great yield, approaching 3%, you look at the cash they have on the balance sheet, everybody always says, let's do something with it. well, they already did the linkedin deeshlgs now adding to this, now jump on the dividend. i think all of these make it a much more interesting company going forward. and the cash they put out. look at the cash on the balance sheet already. this is $40. i think they're doing the right thing at the right time. >> now to wells fargo kicking off the top trades. take a look at this chart. the top trade here, hitting the lows of the day, right around noon when massachusetts senator elizabeth warren called not just for the resignation of john stum stumpf, but the criminal prosecution of him, and the shares ended higher by 1.5%. so is it now safe to say that wells fargo is in the clear?

>> probably another headline. not a criminal investigation not on a executive level. but i would expect to see some really high level resignations, that sort of thing. and i think then it's probably okay to get in here. obviously, you know, the stock has bounced off this 45, $46 level. the fact it didn't get really sloppy over the last week and a half, the fact it closed up today is probably telling you that maybe the bad news is kind of abating a little bit. if you're a trader, you can probably use a $45 stop here. the stock is down 10% in the last few weeks since the story came out. if you're a long-term investor, probably not a bad spot to dollar cost averaging. >> also a couple upgrades in the past few days. >> this is a stock that always trades expensive to its peers, and it should. they had a high r.o.e. business. suddenly a little bit in question. 10% pullback, one to buy. i don't see it breaking this range. i would rather own jpmorgan.

back to the quality. i think jamie dimon has had his scuffles with washington. >> no cloud over the industry. >> there is -- unfortunately, i think there continues to be. an easy target. i think a lot of this is behind them. >> all right. now to the european bank. citibank saying now -- now is the time to buy the eu banks. yes, you heard that right. the firm saying they believe returns and asset quality will improve over the next year, specifically they like bbba, standard charter. >> so first of all, i applaud them for the contrarian call. the problem is, with a lot of these european banks, very exposed to the emerging market. so if you do get a strong irdollar, as i'm expecting, the emerging markets are going to have a problem, standard charter is going to have a problem. deutsch bank looks awful anyway. so for me, i do stay away from the european banks, i would rather be long the u.s. banks

and the very short-term. >> any circumstance, pete najarian, in which you would buy? >> i'm in the american banks, already. i'm looking at wells fargo heavily right now. john had the guts to go in, done very, very well, selling puts, buying the stock itself. but, you know, i've got credit suisse because i feel they're not deutsche bank right now, don't have the same hangover they've got. but they're reacting with them. and because of that, i think they've been brought down a little bit further than they should have. so i think the opportunity of those two right now, i'd rather be in a credit suisse. and it's kind of a beta play for me. i don't expect this to be the greatest run in the world. but i do think if we get any bounce out of the european banks, that doesn't have the cloud over it like deutsche does right now? >> how are you doing on the trade so far? >> i put it on a couple days ago. it's near the 52-week low. now is is the time we'll see hopefully this week. >> credit suisse is interesting. i was going to say, a couple weeks ago, october, november --

deutsche bank is actually very near that 52-week -- all-time low. >> what's interesting also, citibank is saying, hey, as much as this is a contrarian trade and this is -- these banks have been underperformed for ten years. a lot of great research. they say we don't want to play it to the banks. bank proxies and doing it through utilities, reitz, other things that have been taken down with the european bank. >> as we head to break, fedex rallying after the earnings conference call. we'll hear from fred smith and what it could mean for broader markets. you're watching "fast money" first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what is coming up on "fast." >> the breakup heard round the world. branjelina over. >> no, god! no, god! please, no!

>> yes, it's true. that's not the only breakup rocking the street. dennis gartman says the relationship twine stocks and oil could also be coming to a stretching halt. what has him so nervous. and could the nation's highways become safer, even though driverless cars hit the road? >> say it ain't so, joe. >> it's a possibility. and phil lebeau takes us behind the government's new rules. all that and more ahead on "fast money."

what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

welcome back to "fast money." a new survey out on cable tv's two most hated words. cord-cutting. and it could have major implications. our own julia boorstin has more for us. >> hey, melissa.

nearly 6% of pay tv describers say they are extremely likely to cut the cord over the next 12 months, up from over 2% in 2011 and even larger percentage of millennials plan to cut the cord around 9%. this according to a new survey. which says after people expressed this intent, they usually do it. driving there this cord-cutting the decision, the rise of netflix, hulu plus, all of which continue to benefit from the cord had been -cutting trend. pay tv operators can combat the losses as they continue to offer more skinny bundles. packages with fewer channels. saying over half of respondents say they're interested. >> i think this is part of the solution, keeping some people who would have left otherwise. they're obviously going to have to work very hard at keeping as many people in the big bundle as possible. >> so which chams channels would benefit? the survey finds hbo is the most

in demand, followed by abc, cbs and nbc. the key finding from the survey is that the pay tv business isn't disappearing, but experiencing a slow, steady leak of customers which could continue, unless the cable and satellite tv giants figure out how to use those smaller bundles to help turn the tide. >> thank you so much. i feel almost like this is confirmation of what we already believed about this business. >> no doubt about it. but, you know, she just mentioned time warner. hbo is the one. that stock trades out at its expected growth. and they have the hbo. and let me tell you something. that is the delivery mechanism you want. hbo has figured it out. hbo now and go. so that's a good model for the others. >> hbo trades totally cheap to the parts. if you think about it, not just hbo but turner. very good cost-cutting. second quarter beat was amazing. time warner is definitely the place -- >> getting choked out about cord-cutting.

we are going to cut you. but you were saying you were thinking about cutting the cord yourself. >> to me, the programming we watch -- thanks for watching "fast money," too. >> we can stream that. we can do that -- >> come on, get with the program here. >> bottom line here, time warner is the name to play in the cord-cut being place. >> everybody is going can can time warner. i don't understand that. i think there are other places and it's about content to me. so the name i know no one else on the desk likes probably at this point in time. disney. >> divigiddyup. >> there you go. >> you want to hug it out? hug it out! >> merrill lynch said the park stuff is killing it. >> she was very bullish. >> fullish on parks for nbc universal. >> also disney. >> loved comcast. yeah. >> up next, the shocking chart that shows the fed is running out of reasons not to hike rates this year. we'll show you what that is, and what it could mean for the markets. and later, fedex higher on

earnings. is that conference call well under way. we'll hear from the company ceo and a look what the it could mean for the broader market. all that and more ahead on "fast." announcer: when they test you, stand firm and move only when you hear the seatbelt click that says they're buckled in for the drive. never give up till they buckle up. today, i am helping people work better... and also feel better. i am helping hospitals personalize treatments using billions of data points. and working with medtronic to predict the highs and lows of diabetes, hours in advance. and i am working with orreco to use biomarker data to boost the performance of athletes.

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welcome back to "fast money." in the green for the first time in three sessions, ahead of tomorrow's big fed decision. health care was the day's leader, energy the biggest lagga laggard. the breakup of the year that has wall street buzzing. we're talking crude oil and stocks. the relationship could be over for good. plus, take a look at shares of fedex moving higher. we'll hear straight from the ceo on what drove the quarter. first, we are just hours away from the big fed decision on interest rates. our next guest says janet yellen is running out of the reaches not to hike rates. the co founder of the spoke. >> how are you? >> what's this one chart? >> we talk about tomorrow --

when we talk about tomorrow and the fed rate hike, we're -- what are the reasons the fed is not going to hike tomorrow? what would you say the primary reach for it is? >> the elections. >> recent data. >> not terribly good. >> this is not an economy a fed typically would ever be thinking about hiking, right? so that's really what this comes down to. >> you look at the weaker than expected data. at the end of august, you would say a good chance we were going to see a hike in september. weaker than expected data has bashed those fears. if we look back at prior rate hiking cycles and the economic data relative to expectations, it hasn't been uncommon for the fed to hike rates when we're seeing weaker than expected data. we have an economic indicator diffusion index which tracks the pace at which economic indicators are coming in above expectations or below expectations. and when it's positive, it means better than expected reports are doing -- are outnumbering weaker than expected reports. the last rate-hiking cycle, half

took place when it was negative. and the last hike in december, it was minus 13. as of today, it's minus 1. so even though we have seen weaker data, the fed has shown a propensity to hike rates even when the short-term data -- looking at the bigger picture. that's one area where that argument that the weaker than expected data doesn't -- is going to keep them on hold. what's going to happen in december? if we're going to come out tomorrow and say, okay, hawkish diminish tear, let's look at -- we'll wait until december. and then they paint themselves into a corner. the argument that the fed has put themselves into a box here too, you know, besides the weak data, market is not expecting it and the fed doesn't hike rates. pretty much, most economists you talk to say, you know, could see the justification for a hike in rates. most fed governors see a justification for a hike in rates. so -- but they're not doing it because the market is not expecting that. so what's -- what's the picture here? are they reacting to the market or is the market reacting to the

fed? and that's just not a perfect position to be in, i don't think. >> so what is the bottom line thesis for all of this? that the fed will raise? base the data is weaker and that hasn't prevented the fed in the past? >> i think if you're going oh to get a rate hike this year and the fed seems adamant, why not get it over with in september? they haven't shown the pro cliffty to be proactive. but why not just get it over with, rather than have it hanging over our heads for the next two months? and into december? because if they came out with a very dovish statement in a hike tomorrow, at least it's behind us. >> so your index, which shows how expectations of economic data, how much is that weighted towards unemployment and cpi? those are the two feds' mandates. they don't care about ism, don't care about these other things that have come out weaker. >> all they care about is

unemployment and cpi. we probably hiked before we hit our target. how much of your index is weighted -- >> looking at the pce, cpi, employment front, takes into account all of the monthly numbers where there are expectations for and jobless claims on a weekly basis. it is being covered in their weighted quite a lot and some respects employment weighted even too much than -- for the overall. to your point, it's not like we're overlooking the employment aspect. >> so i was the only person who said that the elections could be the reason why the fed doesn't raise interest rates. tomorrow. in terms of the odds, what are you seeing right now? >> well, so last -- it's been well-documented last week. we saw big uptick in trump's odds in the betting markets. and actually, just about a half hour ago on 538, the odds of clinton are now 55.5% winning, which is the lowest she's been in all of 2016. so the numbers -- he sort of

leveled out at this level in the past couple days. but, you know, i think it's all going to come down to next week's debates. you could see the poll numbers break in one direction or the other next week. who knows, depending on their performances. but i think we'll have a much better read on november then. >> we're showing two charts, the s&p 500 versus the odds for trump and then versus the odds for clinton. to me, it looked like the s&p was going down even though the -- it just didn't -- >> it's really interesting that from the spring to early summer, trump -- whenever trump got a jump, the market ran into trouble. in this most recent run up he's had, the market has seen a decline. we've seen an uptick in volatility. if you look here, since the second half of the year started, his numbers have been up and down and the market hasn't done much of anything. honestly, i don't know what that tells you. but you could make the argument that people are getting more comfortable with the idea of a trump victory, and maybe he won't be as off-the-cuff as he seems to be in his rallies. >> okay. paul, good to see you.

thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> all right so fed fund features an 18% chance that they hike rates tomorrow. 18. >> still not happening. but here's the other thing. the last time they started to raise rates back in 2004, fed funds at 1%. where it bottomed out after the dot-dom bubble. and the s&p 500 up 45% from its lows. we are now up more than 200%. i think you cannot leave that out of the argument here. and that's one reason why we're not going up a whole heck of a lot. not going down a whole heck of a lot. and it doesn't really matter, i think -- >> why wouldn't that argue for a sooner -- hike sooner than you expect? >> we are -- if we waited all of 2016 for this rate hike to happen -- >> at some point -- credibility. so they come out tomorrow. it doesn't really matter it at this point. >> really? >> this is about normal -- >> 2016 -- eventually you've got to pull it. >> right. this is about normalization. not about a fed hike cycle.

in 2004, a different world. health care is insensitive, in my view, a place you can play. some of the industrials. but the not -- the less than interest rate since active emerging markets, some places like indonesia, interesting, as well. adobe, josh lipman is live with details. >> so heading into this print, adobe stock, year-to-date up 6%, in line with the broad gauge. now really popping here in the after hours. on the call, adobe's executives highlighting a couple different metrics, pointed to the $3.7 billion of analyzed recurring revenue. said it was up about $285 million quarter over quarter. that is the metric adobe executives want the street and investors to concentrate on. that's really the sign, they say, of health in the business. and they argue -- the point of the strength, despite what they said is usually a pretty slow or soft quarter for them. they also talked about that marketing cloud division. revenue of $404 million in a

quarter, up 10%. the company's cfo saying given retention rates and the pipeline, he expected what he called a strong q4 for the marketing cloud division. and as for the guidance, melissa, guiding for q4 eps of 83 to 84 cents. revenue to $1.6 billion in line what analysts forecast. back to you. >> josh lipton, thank you. pete, what's your trade if any? >> he hit on all of the categories everybody would want to hear. you talk about retention, recurring revenue and rail look at their numbers. this stock is right now in the after hours, trading above the 52-week highs. this says a lot about where the stock was before this. and now propelling even higher. forward, trading at 26 pe. you add in the cloud, seems to me like they're in the right spot. i like technology, like the balance sheet. seems like adobe is doing things right. >> if you like cloud -- >> hold on. i just want to make an important point.

back in march, the stop gapped to a new-time high. up 10%. i would not be buying here or on the open up here at new all-time highs. i know it's been a name you have been in. it does change much more expensive -- >> forward 26. >> yeah. >>. still ahead, commodities king dennis gartman says the relationship between stocks and oil is over. he'll be here to tell us what the epic breakup means. and how one trader sees intel at the end of the year. much more "fast money" after this break. could do to our economy. if we don't solve our debt problem 19 trillion and growing money for programs like education will shrink. in just 8 years, interest on the debt will be our third largest federal program. bad news for small businesses. the good news? there's still time for a solution. ask the candidates for a plan to secure our future.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of fedex now close to session highs. in the after hours session, we have the full details. >> fedex beating on top and bottom lines, raising the adjusted full year eps outlook, excluding one-time items tied to at&t. base yield increases in all of fedex's core segments, express, ground and freight. but analysts have been looking for more guidance on the corporation of t & t express. on the call, fred smith discussing t & t, which is the biggest acquisition in fedex's history. >> the integration of t & t

express, which includes more than 200 countries is proceeding smoothly and on schedule. the level of team members' engagement is outsiding and very much appreciated. >> so the topic a really dominant one on this conference call that is still ongoing. the upcoming peak season was also in focus. mike drucker, fedex freight president outlining those plans, saying the delivery giant is hiring more than 50,000 seasonal workers again this holiday season, expecting heavy demand on mondays with each of the four mondays before christmas being the busiest peak days, due to growing demand for a larger and heavier packages, think mattresses and trampolines. people are buying these and sending through the mail. fedex crating entire temporary facilities for oversized sorting. they're deploying more technology to handle the rush, and fedex express will deliver on christmas eve, but ground will not. executives also outlining the rate increases that pronounced last night, including changes to

dimensional weight pricing and adjusting fuel surcharges weekly versus monthly. that will start in february. so if you take a look at shares of fedex, they are up more than 2.5% in after hours, and as i mentioned, the call still going on. melissa? >> i have a very important question for you, morgan. does fedex specifically single out trampolines? >> trampolines, yes. they did. they said trampolines, mattresses, they said large -- you know, big-screen tvs. >> interesting. morgan, thank you. morgan brennan. >> we have three or four tramp lines at my house. >> i picked them up myself. >> guys, that's the amazon effect. plain and simple. walk into my building here in manhattan and every other day you see a 60-inch tv delivered by u.p.s. or if i had efed i think so. fedex. >> we need to find who delivers trampolines. >> so what these guys are able to do, and as a consumer you

don't like, but the fuel surcharges are positive. raising their rates very positive. going to be very creative in 2018. you like amazon, you like fedex, i don't care what amazon threatens. fedex to me is a very interesting play right now. >> fedex is good news. you're giddyup on airlines. airlines plus fedex, is that good for the broader markets? >> certainly we have talked about transport so many different times, and i think it would be. and we have talked about rails and i think tim has been involved in those, as well. when you look at the whole transportation world, that's one of the areas where we have seen a little pickup. and because of that, and these numbers tonight say a lot. not just amazon, but i think they say a lot about what they're doing. and they kept mentioning, as she said, that tnt freight. huge going forward. >> i look at fedex in the transportation space, just like i look at amazon and retail. kind of a unique event out there, that they don't necessarily reflect the -- what's going on in the rest of the economy, necessarily. i do like fedex, though. i mean, simple -- the old peter

lynch, right? you are look around, you know how many boxes are being delivered by fedex? tons. i haven't seen a lot of mattresses -- >> or trampolines. last word. >> fedex trades cheap to its history, really below market multiple. this one up 2 bucks in the after market. if you gaet a breakout at 2.70 - >> i think it's the first time that somebody else has called for "would you rather." >> would you rather, the u.p.s. u.p.s. has had a difficult time during the holiday see in. >> you wanted to answer. >> trampoline or mattress? i've got to go mattress. >> mattress is more versatile. >> whoa. >> commercial break right now. >> okay -- now to the classic theory. that says as goes crude oil, so goes the stock market. our next guest says not so fast. did dennis gartman joins us from denver. hi, din ni dennis.

>> good to see you. >> what's going on with the relationship here? >> i think it's really quite comical. everybody believes for whatever reason that so goes crude oil, then so goes the stock market. that's just not true. i sent a couple charts today over the course of the past five years. the s&p is up, what, 11 hundred points? the crude oil market, is down $100. i tell you that over a long period of time, any protracted period of time, so guys the convention of stocks. when i hear people say crude oil has rallied, stocks go up, that may happen for five manipulations, a day, a week. but for any protracted reasonable period of time, they move no contravention, not in tandem. and i'm confused and amused and amazed by the people who believe they always move in tandem. it's just not true. >> what do you think is causing this thinking to take hold now? there should be a direct

correlation? a positive correlation? >> because maybe for the past six months or a year, there has been some correlation twine the two. and i think we have such a very myopic, very microscopic perspective at times, we tend to think that which has happened in the last two months will continue for the next three or four going forward. sometimes you really do have to sit down, take a look at weekly and monthly charts, and really ascertain what the major trends are and clearly it is abundantly clear that stock prices have been going up for the past five years. crude oil prices going down. the -- the correlation is simply nonexistent. >> so even in the past few months, is it really about perception that a weaker dollar is better for the stock market? i mean, is -- is that really the relationship we should be focusing on? >> well, that could be one of them. also, i think that some people have said if crude oil is stronger, economic activity is stronger. that's one of the major inputs

into manufacturing and impinges upon profit margins. that's the reason i think over any protracted period of time they move one to the other. why people want to believe they have moved together for the past several months is really quite beyond me. i think it's actually silly. >> dennis, good to see you. thank you. >> one last thing. >> sure. >> i wonder, will there be a bounce in fedex because of the trampoline question? >> apparently, demand is firm there, dennis. >> sounds like we're talking about mattresses again. >> thanks, mike. >> i mean, would you rather mattress or trampoline? i go mattress. >> kids love -- >> congratulations, just completed a triple somersault on his trampoline. very excited. >> as goes the dollar, as goes oil. and din nice makes some great points there. but the reality is, to me, oil's move has been a supply move and a dollar move. >> i think the supply move is something that at least is slowly correcting itself. the dollar move, the jury is out.

we talk about it every night. i think the correlations to the dollar are breaking down somewhat. really that, to me is what took oil from 80 down to 27. >> so not only do we have the boj and the fed, we also have oil inventories tomorrow. and this afternoon, just after the close, api inventories came with a big draw. you saw oil spike up in the after hours. so i would watch that. coming up, the u.s. government says self-driving cars will make the roads a safer place. plus, intel shares and traders betting. we'll tell you what has them so excited. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. the experts at cdw brought i.t. orchestration to our school

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so that will change very rapidly. >> still riding one of those. >> not that bad. >> no. >> that's a car. >> another company looking into driverless car space. this show is off the rail. filing into the tech giant today. dan nathan. >> here is the quick segue. last year closed out $17 billion for altera, also autonomous cars. so intel's focus here today, call volume. one large trade made up a about chunk of that when the stock was

trading 37.15. 41 calls. 16 cents to open. not a particularly predicted bet. only 11 delta, about 11% probability those are in the money. maybe this trader looking out to their q3 earnings results. planning for a breakout, referring up an existing long position. >> thanks, dan. coming up next, final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.

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. capital ceo and co fun founder jeffrey gundlak. >> 58.com, wuba. keep an eye on it. >> media sector under pressure. look at valuations and the guys trading cheap to that valuation and have opportunities since time warner, twx. >> you want to short the end. you know you want to short the end, the way you do that, ycs. that's huge, short, etf. >> fed doesn't raise tomorrow, sell xl. will you help me wishing my twin brother a happy birthday today? >> hey! >> woo!

>> hey! >> he's more handsome. >> happy birthday, buddy. >> i'm melissa lee, thanks so much. dan is sending him a trampoline. . . my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always work and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want to make you some money. so call me. or tweet me. @jimcramer. it is maddeningly inconsistent out there. we have good days, paul, but bad da