immigration issues in the uk. not a lot of talk about deutsche bank. i thought there would be more in the papers. i think we are talking about it more now. >> how was the beer? >> cold. >> volumeinous. >> thanks for watching power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. hi everybody, welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> stocks getting a bump today. you have the strong consumer confidence number this morning. some are calling this the clinton rally after last night's presidential debate. we will look at whether hillary clinton really came out on top. and if the next president no matter whether clint eon or tru will have any impact on the markets next year. >> a new report says wells fargo

board considering clawing about for stumpf. >> an all-time high for amazon up more than 50% in the last year. is it too late to get in on the amazon parade? we'll explore that coming up a little bit here. >> model and entrepreneur tyra banks gives us her take on the business climate and the new mba class she is teaching. she will be ringing the nasdaq bell from san francisco and will join us live coming up. >> i love tyra banks. really great lady. it was an historic night last night as nominees donald trump and hillary clinton took the stage in their very first one-on-one presidential debate. while a number of jabs were thrown by both sides they also hit on important economic issues like trade and jobs and the fed. listen. >> we have to renegotiate our trade deals and we have to stop

these countries from stealing our companies and our jobs. >> we need to have smart, fair trade deals. we also, though, need to have a tax system that rewards work and not just financial transactions. and the kind of plan that donald has put forward would be trickle down economics all over again. i am determined that we are going to get the economy really moving again. building on the progress we have made over the last eight years but never going back to what got us in trouble in the first place. >> we have to do a much better job at keeping our jobs. and we have to do a much better job at giving companies incentives to build new companies or to expand because they are not doing it. we have the worst revival of an economy since the great depression. believe me, we are in a bubble right now. the only thing that looks good is the stock market. if you raise interest rates even a little bit that is going to come crashing down. we are in a big fat ugly bubble.

>> joining us now with his reaction and what it means for the markets is dan clifton from strategicest research markets. welcome. >> thank you for having me today. >> you put a slightly different spin which is if hillary does not get a big bounce in the polls it could mean a trump victory. >> if you look at the consensus today is that trump wasn't ready to play in the major leagues, hillary will eventually win. there is some truth to that. clearly she should be getting a bounce. she did we, put her health issues away. if she doesn't come out ahead here then it will be a sign that her candidacy has larger troubles of appealing to the american public. trump did very well in the polling on economics even though he did very bed in overall debate presentation. that gives him a place to start from for those next debates. we are 40 days away. they ended up to lose.

a lot of time left. >> trump crushing clinton on the economy. is that your view? >> that was a poll put out yesterday. >> based on what they were -- it is clear they have very different views on how to jump start this economy. they have run it along pretty much party lines here. >> if you look at the first 20 minutes of the debate i think they both did very good. he did very well on the economics. as you got deeper into the debate he kept slipping and slipping. he will need more material and will need to explain his tax cuts better because she came very prepared to counter anything he said on economic plan. >> one thing that looks clear. it seems like no matter what happens with the polls it will impact the market. we only have to look at the trading activity last night from the moment the debate began. it is not that the markets are getting it right. we saw what happened with the brexit vote. if you woke up and say i thought

hillary won, let me buy the peso you are late to the game. so is it going to be similar to this kind of idea going into the british vote to leave the eu which is markets make it look like it is a sure thing but we shouldn't take that as evidence that that will be the case. >> if the market took completely serious that hillary was going to win, infrastructure stocks would be best performers. that is what is tied to a hillary win. you see weakness in energy. you see weakness in bio tech. that is more of the fundamentals that are happening. the market has learned not to jump the gun too early. the s&p and hillary's probability of winning have been very correlated. hillary's probability had been dropping and the s&p did not drop with that. it is almost like the s&p knew she was going to go back to where she was and that the health scare was somewhat temporary. the market has gotten much more sophisticated in this. the s&p 500 has predicted 19 of the past 22 presidential elections. if stocks are higher in the

three month period before the election the incumbent party which is the democrats win. if stocks are lowered the opposition party wins. that is the market adjusting to the uncertainty of a new administration. i think that would be a good guide to watch. >> it is a squeaker. here is another indicator i found interesting. google before the debate ran measures the number of google searches for each candidate in each state. here we have before the debate donald trump is in red. hillary in blue and you can tell donald trump had the higher number of google searches. this is after the debate. every single state was looking for hillary. >> we have never seen this because donald trump is such an interesting person to search on. that is what happens. there is at lot of voters who were watching hillary and donald for the first time. she took advantage of the opportunity. he needs to claw his way back

now. >> just also want to under score your point about support for the incumbent with another data point related to consumer confidence numbers which is when the consumer sentiment gauge is slightly different has been above 80 that has always been a sign for the incumbent. typically low 75 the incumbent has lost. the reading for sentiment for august was 89. the reading for consumer confidence from the conference board was way better than expected. >> gasoline prices are best predictor of the outcome. this is the largest drop ever before a presidential election. if hillary didn't have it it would be easy to replace the party. it is helping her here at the end of the stretch and i think it will be a very close election. we are a 50/50 nation. >> yes, we are.

>> thank you for having me on. >> joining us today. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange with the dow up 130 points joining us david kelly from jp morgan funds. ste and rick santelli joins us from chicago. what is this rally about today? >> you know, the standard and poorz 500 level is significant. we have seen staunch support there coming into today. you see how quickly it was gained. it so we are hitting -- the level here is 21 at the same time you have some of these waves from what is happening with deutsche bank and germany if you said why is the yield low

again would you argue is go back to -- >> one would expect. even though the yield is lower the differential or the spread between our yields and yields were spending. and that tells me there is inurgea to the dynamics. on a much bigger scale. what the ecb is doing, what mario drawima i can't do this on my own, we are running out of run way here. the notion that these negative rates are going to help deutsche bank or help any of the european banks is very critical and i'm sure it was a driver to push yields within three basis points

of their lowest closing rate ever. we should have been lower. we really want to pay attention here because if the bank of japan stays in reverse on policy the ecb stays in reverse and the fed gets enough courage to normalize which it needs to do. it has nothing to do with data and they put it in drive that's exactly the type of thing or clue you look for in terms of difference widening out. i think that is the main issue you want to pay close attention to. >> what about the consumer sentiment numbers especially in the context of our economy that just continues to muddle along? does it have a lot to do with gasoline prices? >> that is part of it. our research has shown gas prices are important and perceptions of the job market. that's the best number we have seen since august of 2007.

so people are really getting a sense. it will also help confidence. economic numbers are pretty good in supporting this market. >> it's kind of interesting because at the same time dan clifton was telling us donald trump's remarks about the economy resonated most of people listening last night. how would you reconcile all of that? in other words, a sense that people see prospects as getting better even though rhetoric is about how things have gotten much worse and need to be changed. >> i think there is a lack of perception about the economy. if you go back to 1993, 60% of americans watched the evening news down to about 25%. i'm not sure the average american knows how the american economy is doing. so if you have politicians saying it is really bad i know

there is a gap between rich and poor they hear bad things. that resonates with them. >> i know you -- we all read and his commence this morning were interesting about the impacts. what is going to impact the market down the road. he said odds are higher whoever the next president is they will preside over recession, bare market and rising debts. at least around 2017 central banks will dominate as they have for the past eight years. do you agree? >> i believe there will be a recession going forward. when you look at any of these presidential candidates and if you are like me and you don't like either one of them and you really don't want to route for either of them it is fiscal spending that they have in common.

you have -- things that will prosper when the president of the united states wants to borrow and spend. that's where you have to look. the overall economy i think is actually not doing quite that well. i think the average american is well aware that it's not doing that well. when you are scraping the run way on gdp, when the housing numbers are poor, when the wage numbers aren't as good as they are portrayed to do and so many people are working part time i think the average american is having a rough time. >> what about growth, sarge? >> forget everything else. let's say he got elected and got rid of obama care and repealed much of dodd-frank. you don't think we would see big growth? i would be shocked if we don't see at least a half a percent

more. growth needs to be factored into the outlook in terms of what people are trading based on which candidate wins, as well? >> i think donald trump will provide more growth than hillary clinton. the truth is if you watched them last night i dislike her. i'm a military guy. i can't like her. donald trump didn't come prepared to play last night. how do you play when you are not ready? it kind of ticks me off. i'm going to vote for colonel jack guilfoyle. >> appreciate your thoughts on today's market action. 45 minutes to go and a rally. the dow up 115. the s&p adding 12. transports up 71. small caps up almost five points. nasdaq up to 5,300. >> another day, another european bank under pressure. the latest warning signals raised by the ceo of credit suesse.

>> wells fargo board considering executive clawbacks. we will have the latest fallout from the bank's fake account scandal coming up. you are watching cnbc. do you worry if you've saved enough for retirement? are you or your spouse 62 or older? a government-backed reverse mortgage enables you to turn the equity you've built into the retirement you deserve. with over 20 years in the mortgage business, lendingtree allows you to compare free reverse mortgage offers with no obligation.

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the dow up 122 and amazon continues hitting another record high notching jp morgan raised price target from 925 now having overweight rating on -- siting flex eblt and pushing first party versus third party. as it happens we will talk about whether it is too late to put amazon in your portfolio coming up here on "closing bell." >> credit suisse could be heading for rough patch. what is happening? >> credit suisse ceo today said

softness in q 2 has continued into q 3 for much of his business and he expects to shed some 1,200 jobs by the end of the year which comes on top of job cuts made. it highlights ongoing head winds for european banks in what was a roller coaster session today driven by deutsche bank. shares ended the day flat. it rallied as comments from the doj official suggested that banks who are open with self-disclosure with the doj can see their fines lowered. investors took it as a sign that their final find will be somewhere below that initially floated $14 billion figure. the share price recovery today encouraging but still down sharp and around 50% this year. worth noting the move which had risen above 0% a week ago is

back to lowest levels since july due to major risk off sentiment sweeping. >> how similar is the situation credit suisse because it is a restructuring. deutsche bank seems to have fundamental is it valuation issues related to loans on the books? are there common linkages? >> common in facing tough situation. different in that credit suisse has bigger exposure suffering from a few withdrawals but not fundamental profitability questions, also has more exposure to asia. it was pretty upbeat. there are similarities but really in the eye of the storm when you talk about negative interest rates, declining profitability, declining market share. the share price rally is

interesting. it does suggest that a lot of the move has been based on expectations on how big the fine is going to be. if that is it it is not as bad as february. >> let me pivot you to wells fargo. we were waiting for something from their board apparently before john stumpf testifies? >> the reports emerged that the board were expecting clawbacks. as you said of the hearing in front of the house finance committee on thursday. cnbc spoke to the company and declined to comment. given the huge focus on clawbacks or lack of them thus far. one of the major mistakes by wells at the senate hearing was that stumpf would not or could not offer on claw backs. the heavy decision will be made

by board of directors which overs overseas compensation. stumpf not on that. issue remains will we see clawbacks ahead of thursday. it will be an easy win for them to offer. his tenure at the company whether or not -- >> reports that his compensation if he were to leave was about $123 million. >> huge amount of it. will we see decision ahead of the board on thursday. some reports suggested we would. could she decide to say i'm giving up a chunk of this myself regardless of what the board says. the desire out there and politicians to see some clawback.

>> good to see you. you got anything else? >> let's talk about latest headlines and gossip columns. >> the dow up 116 points. >> nike is gearing up to report earnings. we will deliver the company's numbers and break them down with analysts. up next from the run way to the halls of big business, supermodel tyra banks tells us about her latest business ventures coming up.

on the hit show america's next top model tyra banks mentored aspiring young models helping them find their light and smies. now she is working with young entrepreneurs gearing up to be a guest lecturer at stanford business school to teach others about their personal brand. >> i just tried to do it but i think it just came off. >> show me again. >> well done. tyra banks joins us to talk about her keys to success from the entrepreneurial center in

san francisco. >> i assume you are smiezing right now. >> hello there. >> this is a smeyes. mouth needs to be novocain. >> before we get into the entrepreneurial and wondering did you watch the debate. what do you make of the election? >> i was at a business dinner during the debates i was staring at the tv and we had to pull ourselves away. when i got home at 11:00 at night i kissed my baby. he was in his crib and i watched the whole thing on my laptop. >> amazing. >> it was very interesting. >> you're going to be on the next celebrity apprentice so you have some connection to donald trump. what did you think about the whole thing about the miss universe contestant that they

brought up last night and his language about her? >> that was crazy. that was, come on now. you know that was crazy. you just want me to say it so you can play it later as a sound byte like tyra said donald is crazy. >> i'm anxious to talk about your mba program. are you a tough grader? >> i don't know about tough grading but i'm definitely tough in the classroom. if i see you not paying attention, if i see you doing something on the internet i am going to call your name and ask you to answer that question. so you better be paying attention in my class. >> i remembered a couple of years ago you told the wall street journal some of your fashion predictions. i wanted to share a few of them and see if you had updated reflections. one of them you said plastic

surgery is going to become as easy and quick as going to the drugstore for tylenol. you said people can pop a pill and grow hair in 24 hours. we know about the whole thing where you can pick your baby's eyes where you can pick fast food menu items. you said skin color and features will morph so they lean towards rihanna or beyonce or your look. now that everything has kind of become such a similar compiled look in the industry that being unique is going to increasingly be what people are after. do you see that playing out now? i am reminded of people going makeup free. what is happening here with beauty? >> so one thing is that wall street op-ed was actually 100 years from now what will the beauty world look like? what would beauty be?

so they didn't print the 100 year and saying this is five years from now. there is one thing with instagram which i find fascinating is there is a certain instagram beauty these girls that are not signed by a modeling agency but have huge followings and look like jasmine from aladdin to me. so they have this golden skin. they have these huge eyes that turn up and big lips and that's this beauty that is now like young girls want to look like that. it's really interesting. the good part about it is some of them have surgery but a lot of it is just makeup so it is replicatable which means evening the playing field when it comes to the desire and the journey to achieve beauty. so i'm all about leveling the playing field and making it equal for everybody. a painted face i think is better than crying yourself to sleep because you don't look a certain

way. >> i know what you will deal with in your mba program is personal branding. with social media today that is i would think easier than ever. it is more important people developing their own personal brand whether on linked on or instagram as you mentioned, twitter, facebook, whatever your social media platform is that forwards your career as you go forward, right? >> yes. >> i think personal branding for anyone. no longer just people in a celebrity spot light. there are two different types of personal brands that i will be talking about. one is where your personal brand is connected to a brand. for instance like my mentor of zappos. it is easier to wear your brand and not have to think. this is what i will continue to wear. with tony he is so connected to that he is zappos. there are others like richard

branson with virgin and then there are other types of entrepreneurs where they are constantly inventing new things in their personal brand is almost like teflon and it may fail at something and continue to start other things and they are both very powerful y. will ask my students which are you and which do you want to be? and here is the path to get there. >> is it too late for me to sign up? >> i'm with you. are you going to do this online? we can do it remotely. tyra, good luck with that. >> i don't know. thank you. >> let's do that. nobody smises like tyra banks. thanks for being with us today. >> thank you for joining us. >> tyra banks. she will be ringing the nasdaq closing bell. we have a news alert on a new political hack attack. what now? >> reuters is reporting that fbi investigators believe that foreign hackers have targeted

the mobile phones of a small number of democratic party officials possibly reuters reports including elected officials. they sourced this to four government sources saying the hacking attempts occurred within the last month or so and at least some of these sources are saying that some of these officials have been asked to turn over their phones to the fbi so they can be imaged by the fbi. some sources according to reuters believe it is the russian government behind this attack. so this would be an expansion of what we knew that ledged russian government attacks targeting mobile phones possibly including political officials but similar in kind to what we have seen so far. an advancement of what we know at least for now about what the alleged russian efforts are. >> thank you. and by the way cyber security will be in focus our upcoming

cyber summit in partnership with mit. the event will feature top names in government, academia and private sector. for ticket and speaker information visit cnbc.com/cybersummit. it is time for our cnbc news update. >> here is what is happening. the senate has blocked a spending bill need today keep the government open beyond friday's deadline. most democrats and at least ten republicans vote today block the bill because the bill did not include money to help flint, michigan deal with tainted water crisis. maya rudolph was on capitol hill lobbying congress to list all ingredients of products on websites. she says if food kaechs do it then cleaning companies should, too. >> knowing what is in cleaning products lets us make the best choice for ourselves and our families. i think everyone has the right

to know what is in their cleaning products. an indiana man is make ag political statement in his front yard after having five trump signs stolen. he mowed the name trump in his yard after a number of signs was stolen. as you can see it is pretty easy to see and apparently you can see it from the road. that's the news update. it's also very straight. >> he did a nice job. >> i used to try to mow in circles and that was hard enough. i loved the riding mower. my parents let me on it before i could drive. i used to take it around the neighborhood. >> oh, boy. >> we'll see you in an hour. we are in the last half hour. 25 minutes to go. a leading trader will tell us what he is watching in the close. >> as amazon shares push to new

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about 22 minutes left in the trading session the dow up 114 30i7b9s. the transports a also in

rallying mode up 65. we want totalk about that with mark newton. one of the oldest indicators in the market. you look at the transports relative to what the industrial average is doing. >> if anything this group has been a laggard. it is interesting. >> you see the decline there. this is the latter part. this is a relative chart of transports versus the industrials. it is a relative chart. transports in the industrials. we have seen this breakout so i think that is interesting and bullish and positive given relative moves. we need to see about 100 points early september highs but i think it is right to position on the long side. you start to see the meaner version. stocks i see is very bullish and a good sign in general for the

market when this is a laggard sector showing more and more signs of strength. waiting for confirmation from the dow. >> i want to by transports and want to add when you see the absolute move. i think now on the long side for the move to happen. >> something to keep an eye on. >> amazon hitting a fresh all-time high today. will the stock's monster run continue? let's bring in gene munster. welcome and good to see you again. plenty of people are putting $1,000 price target on the shares. why are they only in $900 val waegz in your view? >> we have been way ahead for the pastorally since december of 2014 so i think they are jumping

ahead and expecting the multiple will expand more going into the holiday period. that might be the difference between us and them. at the end of the day we believe this is one of the best stories to own so we would share that same view from other analysts. >> what forward multiple is that for amazon here for its next 12-month earnings? >> we go out actually for the multiple i know for next year that multiple is about 17 times which some people think is a big number because there is a lot of infrastructure and so it is not as easily compared to like a google. i think what really is going to propel the multiple is the likelihood of them being positive and they feel strongly that there is leverage that

investors understand and that should be positive for the multiple. >> the jp morgan call where they raise the price target they say they are looking at the retail side growing share. what about the cloud business? what kind of growth to you see there? >> that is going to be a lot faster than the retail. in the current period it is growing at about 50%. we see that slowing a little bit to 40%. aws can grow at a 25% greater clip for the next five years. so i think that that is something just secular theme. right now it is about 20% of business operations that are done in the cloud and that number is going to clearly continue to grow and amazon is a gainer. >> this is i know a long running topic around the stock but the profit margin. where do you expect that to kind of go in the near term?

are they investing heavily? is there reason why we start to see more upside there? >> we think that there is more upside. i have been meeting with investors for the better part of the past month. are we going to drift back into this investment cycle. we think the answer is they probably won't. to answer the question is on the retail margins we have it going from 3% this year to 11% in 2020. the street is at about 7%. we think there is meaningful leverage as they continue to charge more for the sellers who are selling on amazon. >> i think cost is ten, right? >> they are but the model is a more cost effective model longer term so we think there is that potential. >> thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> joining us. we have 17 minutes left. the dow starting to pop a little

bit up 130 points. fly the social skies. that is what airlines are enticing customers to do. the impact of social media on the airline business is next. >> and competition has been heating up for nike from the likes of underarmer, adidas. we will see if nike is holding on to its top position. stay with us. hey look, it's those guys. [music] shawn: look at those pearly whites, man. [music]

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welcome back. it has become popular for airline travelers to take to social media. those tweets and posts aren't going into a black hole. a new study shows which airlines are most responsive and least responsive to customers who do post something on social media. phil lebeau is live in dallas with that story. >> i love this story because i hear from so many people when i'm doing stories and flying somewhere. this airline gave me the shaft. which airlines respond when you go to twitter or facebook? we are here in dallas because southwest according to the firm

southwest is the most responsive of the north american airlines. southwest answering about 43% of the social media post. you compare that with the rest of the airlines in north america and southwest is easily outperforming them industry average 24% in north america with response time on average of little over one minute and in two seconds or when you look at it it is not happening as fast as many people are expecting it to happen but the guy who runs has made it clear if you want to send a message to an airline take a deep breath first. >> the advice i would give if you are a traveler today is don't just view this as opportunity to vent or a channel to resolve your issue, send private message or details. >> and we had a chance to see southwest in action yesterday. they have a team here monitoring all the tweets, facebook posts as you take a look at the

airline index and there are so many people posting on social media the key is if you want a response put out what you have a problem with in a very calm manner, odds are you will get a response much quicker than if you blast a an airline. i have seen this time and again when i'm in an airport, take a deep breath and get response. >> 43%. southwest is able to answer 43% of tweets. what do they have thousands of people working there? >> it is not just tweets. it's social media. you are talking about snap chat. a lot of people are putting up a picture of a southwest plane. southwest is not going to answer every picture of a plane put out there. they target those tweets and facebook posts where somebody has a problem. they have been delayed or have an issue with booking a flight, something has gone wrong. they immediately swarm on those posts. those are priority with all airlines. you can see some airlines are much more responsive than others in terms of handling your issue.

>> i know we have to go. we all know how much i love flying these days. i had a disastrous time at the airport itself. it's often not the airline that is the problem. it's the airport whether security or parking or whatever. and there is no response there. you don't know who to talk to then. >> that is a huge problem for the airlines because the perception is that airline has given you a bad flight experience when in reality it may be tsa or that you are at an airport that does a terrible job. that is a real frustration for airlines. >> these automated responses, how are they answering 43%? we have to go. i'll look it up. >> you can respond to us later. >> phil lebeau there in dallas. ten minutes to go. s&p 500 at 12 and nasdaq at 45. >> new data reveal 55% of financial advisers plan on increasing allocations. what are the risks? we will ask that question to etf trends editor after this.

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eight minutes left with the dow up 124 points. you are looking at the emerging markets and offerings out there

right now. >> so values absolutely. performance to the regular market, not enough advisers are allocated in that area. individual investors feel that they are more risky and that is not the case. so indexing is a key way to diversify. 16 pasz boints pretty low fee if you want to have a smart beta angle you have wisdom tree 4.5% yield not bad at all schaub has a fundamental approach which value oriented stocks. it is just another approach to index. >> we just read they are up significantly. let me ask you we saw an advertisement for etf where you --

>> you write a put. that is a strategy. that's not a security. >> there are a lot of thematic strategies going on. we are tackling this at the etf boot camp later this week. it is all about it is great that there is competition and a lot of tools. advisers and investors need more em education to get through and not get caught up. there is a whiskey etf coming out soon. do we need that many. however, it is choice and better than mutual fund. >> thanks for joining us. >> you had me at whiskey. >> looking up the ticker. >> we have the dow up 127 points. we will have the closing count down in just a moment. after the bell we'll break through the spin and talk to two

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two-day chart of the dow. sell off yesterday and the rally today. whether we look at the consumer sentiment number or debate, whatever it is. we have come back from yesterday's sell off. the ten year yield want to see how the yield has done on the ten year as we have had focussing on the ten year bund in germany. >> strength in prices. yield is down by about three basis points. >> and the one everybody is watching today is the peso versus the dollar. >> that was the mexico trade because it was proxy for whether or not trump was going to win the debate or hillary was going to win the debate. people say that it was the mexican peso that won. maybe it was hillary winning. i will point this out, over the month it has been a rough

september so far. apple and amazon both up 6% each month. that means large cap technology pulling more than fair share of weight. >> thank you. see you later. going out with a gain of 130 points the washington real estate investment trust ringing the closing bell for the big board. nike any moment now in the second hour of "closing bell" with kelly evans. see you later. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. stocks finishing up 132 points on the dow. the s&p adding 13. the nasdaq up nearly 1% adding 48 points to close at 5,305. and for the dow 18,227. nike is set to release earnings. chairs finish higher ahead of

results. we will bring you numbers and instant reaction as soon as they are out. on the panel michael santoli and dennis berman with us. welcome everybody. is good to have you here. the market reasserting itself within the trading range we have had. yesterday we gave back about 150 points. it seemed to me that it came in a couple of waves, one after better than expected consumer confidence. european markets close deutsche bank shares closing safely off of their lows. it seemed to take one thing off the worry board. i think it is worth noting how top heavy this move was. it was large cap tech driving at the nasdaq 100 index up 1%. it was much more of a mixed

pixtupi picture. the biggest five are more than 40%. you are buying five stocks and then 95 others that make up a little more than half. >> which is fine as long as amazon continues. >> facebook, amazon closing i think another record high. we have debated that one and continue to do so. it also comes on the back of strong consumer confidence numbers. the index this is from conference board 104 versus 99. the highest reading since august 2007. the labor differential are jobs being more plentiful versus hard to get jumped. >> don't forget the numbers on home prices. >> strong but maybe softening a little bit. it is interesting that people's confidence is at such high levels. >> and yet something doesn't quite seem right. we are still range bound on the

s&p. if you go back to july we are in 50, 60, maybe 100 point range for s&p. so yes i suppose consumer confidence is returning but if that were the case interest rates should be responding to behavioral changes because of that confidence. ten year is back below 1.6. we are stuck. >> absolutely. and it is because the labor market piece of it improved so much that you would ordinary expect that people say janet yellen and the fed were emphasizing how important it jobs market it. the wall street journal talking about a shortage for engineering jobs. we have good reading for the conference board yet interest rates move lower today. is it because of problems? is it because of the debate? >> i think the european financial dooz have a lot to do with it. i am not smart enough to know or to suggest that deutsche bank

is -- i don't know and i'm not suggesting that it is. i'm also not smart enough to say out of hand that it's not. the fact that people are so glib about it and a lot of people discount it, that worries me a little bit. deutsche bank is extraordinary airli significant. to say it is deutsche bank specific i don't put a lot of stock in that. that being said the s&p continues to hold that 2,134 level which was the high from last 2015 in may to really constructive thing. transports do well. the russell appears as though it wants to break out to the upside. those are very encouraging things against the back drop that can be somewhat frightening right now. >> and what you are saying about deutsche bank, he was shorting the stock so people don't appreciate how deep the problems go. he closed it saying if nothing else at least people have an

appreciation for how thin their capital is or how much more they need to raise. why do you think it is a systemic issue? >> they have the largest derivatives book. i think the value is north of $30 trillion. to think that it is just deutsche bank specific to me is a fool's error. i think the tentacles run deep and wide. i guarantee the risk management they are saying what is our exposure to deutsche bank and how can we get in front of this? those conversations have to be going on. >> it is interesting how this has become an issue. the bank says no. i have to put the proposition for you. the analysis is spot on. >> if they are willing to bail out greece and whatever other

country -- >> there are political reasons why it would not. >> those countries were struggling. germany is doing very well. >> the idea that it would bail out the bank just because it is deutsche bank flies in the face we have to help institution when there is the whole country and the whole bank on the line. in this case if deutsche bank screwed up -- >> what would a bail out mean? it means raising capital. it means they have to raise capital. the one way i would say that this is not analogous to those other kinds of canaries in the coal mine those other firms were not subject to a fine by the united states, a very specific amount that got people worried that they don't have the capital to cover it. this is general ratcheting up of

funding. there is something discrete here. >> does that make it better or worse? >> it doesn't mean that the system is on this kind of slow melt down that we are watching in real time. >> i don't mean to interrupt. that $14 billion, this stock has been going down long before that was even whispered or talked. i hear what you are saying in terms of specifics. to me this has been a slow motion train wreck now for almost the last 18 months. >> and i do think it is because the market has to raise capital. look at what happened in italy where other companies and asset managers said we'll buy stock. it is going to be ugly and not great for the stock. >> mike is saying italy is a paragon? >> i am saying that a country and other institutions find a way to bail out a keystone financial institution. >> this is more of the beginning than the end of the story.

let's get to the debate. last night first general election presidential debate. we are 12 days away from the next one. the candidates focussed on the economy and defense. john harwood has highlights for us. >> the american electorate is not happy and donald trump tried to take advantage by hitting hillary clinton on failures but didn't rattle her. she did rattle trump provoking him to interrupt her repeatedly with attacks on policies and racial attitudes and finances. >> donald was very fortunate in his life. that's all to his benefit. he started his business with $14 million borrowed from his father. >> my father gave me a small loan in 1975. >> you have taken business bankruptcy six times. >> on occasion four times we used certain laws that are there. i take advantage of the laws of the nation. >> you wouldn't pay what the man

needed to be paid. >> maybe he didn't do a good job and i was unsatisfied with his work. >> and they showed he didn't pay federal income tax. donald started his career back in 1973 being sued by the justice department for racial discrimination because he would not rent apartments in one of his developments to african-americans. >> we settled the suit with zero with no admission of guilt. >> donald thinks climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the chinese. i think it is real. >> i did not say that. i do not say that. >> trump's last denial was easily disproven, a tweet making clinton's points was on the twitter feed today. others like no admission of guilt were not very strong. we don't know how college educated whites especially women will react. by this weekend the polls may tell us something.

meantime donald trump reports on twitter that he raised $13 million in the last 24 hours. that's something. >> we know the numbers were huge in terms of the number of people who turned in. at least 80 million. that doesn't include pbs and streaming numbers and it will grow. >> i think if nothing else that starts to get you to some level of statistical significance in terms of how people are considering these candidates. it is a good test. and after this debate and when you have at least the consensus suggesting that clinton won let's see if the poll numbers to give you an indication. >> when are we going to get sense drawn of the numbers? >> i think it takes a few days to filter. i think if you get a quality telephone poll by this weekend saturday, sunday, monday that will be a strong indication of what happened. i would not expect large

movement in the polls. it is a significant quantum of voters who don't like either candidate. you get a tick or two here or there and that counts in this environment as significant. >> does the market rally or does it fall on a trump victory or not? >> today put out a note saying he thinks the note under appreciated. send people into risk averse mode. >> i think volatility is way too low. i think volatility is way too low. complacency level is extraordinary. even preelection or exelection to me extraordinary risks people are looking past and don't want to acknowledge and then throw

the election on there. if it is not a coin flip it is close. i think the knee jerk reaction, matter of fact early on when it appeared as though he was doing well futures were going lower. got her chops. to answer your question how do you -- it is too cheap for the environment that we find ourselves in. >> 81.4 million people watched across 11 networks last night. that is the early number. thanks for joining us. let you both go and get ready for fast money. the rest of the crew will join him at 5:00. they will have more reaction to nike's earnings which are out in just a couple of minutes. we will bring you results as soon as they are released.

it's expected to deal with limit output won't be reached. you are watching cnbc, first in business world wide.

welcome back.

susan anderson joins us. >> athleisure, wall street journal talking about people getting involved. this is way beyond nike. we are seeing. i think the key thing this back to school season, the whole fall period is that we are adding a lot more fashion to athleisure. all she wants is fashion infused and i'm not sure it is offering particularly where it is in the performance. putting fashion into the foot wear and they have been hot lately. >> this is all the stan smith thing. >> the easies. it is all working. i think with this more fashion type athleisure apparel that is working really well i think they

fit in really well. >> i think nike stock under performed so much shows concerns that basically they don't have this segment. getting tougher in certain areas. all this is built in. i think the question is for now that we are -- it is a low in terms of valuation. we will see. starting to move. we will have the full results out in just a moment. 73 beat. dominic chu has more. >> guys, i'm watching nike right now. 73 sents a share. that beats the estimate. $9.06 billion is the revenue number that beats the estimate

of $8.7 billion. if it is initial for the talk it doesn't say analysts looking for 8.3% rise so we are watching and dig more into the futures orders numbers. for right now that is what we are seeing earnings beat, sales beat, futures orders below what some were looking for. >> thank you so much. >> so the global number was up 7%. the north american number up 1%. how do you think they managed to deliver such strong results while seeing deceleration compared to futures orders. >> without looking at the numbers specifically historically they have had really good luck on the gross margin side in terms of raising

price points and getting a higher mix and higher margin product into the system. if that could have helped them out cost initiatives are below expectations. that will be concerning. i think the -- north america is the concern. throughout the rest of the and that should have to come down. >> is this a value stock or a dividend paying stock. the dividend is below that. should they start raising the dividend? >> perhaps they could be in a transition stage more cash

generated stock. this past year supposed to be low teens this year and maybe lower than that. the growth is still very reasonable but as it becomes lower it could be a transition phase for them. >> i'm reading street account saying the earnings beat was driven by strong revenue growth, lower effective tax rate and lower than average share count. by the way, there was a little bit of good news out of europe. western europe up 9% for futures. central and eastern up 9%. japan a little bit higher. greater china up 19% relative to 20%. it does look like the biggest swing was the north american number up. >> it came in the most important markets. china and north america. seems that the stock even if it were not having a bit of a struggle with futures orders i think it is the kind of stock

that after a great 2015 has been for sale. it has been this, disney. it's been the starbucks, these brand name stocks. it has all been given back. >> thanks for joining us. early minutes through the number. let's send it to seema mody. >> i want to draw your attention to shares plunging in extended hours after the company warned that sales are coming in below expectations. the mattress maker ceo saying net sales up to 3% lower than last year. the stock again now down 20% in after hours trade. keep an eye on this name. >> that is a huge downward move. this is a press release updating its financial guidance for full year and sales trends before it participates in the financial conference. really i guess a warning sign here from tempur sealy.

>> it is unclear if this is a macro story. it has been a bit of a controversial name, a post merger story but they definitely have been streaky to say the least in terms of being able to grow. >> this sort of product directly tied to housing formation. you have to wonder is this a canary in the coal mine. >> we definitely want to know if that is the question. hillary clinton and donald trump going head to head for the first time during last night's first presidential debate. which got the upper hand on getting the economy up and running again. from oil prices after leaders threw cold water in hopes of production freeze. joins us from a meeting in algeria to tell us where he thinks prices are heading from here. best shopping experiences. they're your customers. and by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u.s. retailers

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welcome back. candidates performances have been scrutinized for who looked more presidential and who might have been sick. did they enlighten us about their economic plans. >> maybe he doesn't want the american people, all of you watching tonight to know that he has paid nothing in federal taxes because the only years anybody have seen were a couple of years when he had to turn them over to state authorities when he was trying to get a casino license and they showed

he didn't pay federal income tax. >> we are in a big fat ugly bubble. we have a fed that is doing political things. this janet yellen of the fed, the fed is doing political by keeping the interest rates at this level. >> the kind of plan that donald has put forth will be trickle down economics all over again. it would be the most extreme version, the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country. i call it trumped up trickle down because that is exactly what it would be. that is not how we grow the economy. >> joining us more reaction now executive chairman and founder of ever core and hillary clinton supporter and president of inseama global and senior economic adviser to donald trump. >> we are told last hour that trump scored higher sm er in so

the polls last night. did he get the message across? >> i think he did. he did it right up front. you cherry picked some of the bad clips but what he did right up front was to make clear that he wants change and she doesn't. he wants a reform plan that will cause 4% growth. that you can achieve through tax reform, regularatory reform and energy reform. hillary clinton wants higher taxes and that includes estate taxes and income tax rates. so these are simply not going to work to create more growth. he said all of that up front. i think that is why he is scoring so well in the polls. >> he isn't scoring well in the polls. we saw the results of several different focus groups. i had nothing to do with them. cnn had a focus group of

undecideds. cnn did a broader poll of all of those who watched the debate. we have read the results. they are clear. clinton scores a lop sided win in terms of who people think won the debate. it is out there. it's a fact. what we don't know is whether the debate results which are clearly clintons are going to move the broader polls. nate silver said this morning that historically a debate result like that moves broader polls two to four points. we just have to wait a little bit and see how much it affected the broader result. as far as who did well last night and who didn't don't lis toon what i had to say. look at the results. >> what about the core of hillary's economic plan? is it as trump charged a message of fundamentally more regulation, tougher for new businesses to start?

throwing more difficulties on to existing institutions especially the banks. >> two points. first of all, if that was so successful why did she do so well in the debate? second point answer to your question is no. the focus of her economic plan as she said repeatedly is middle class income. we had on the one hand a decent recovery over the past several years but incomes are beginning to really move up. we saw that on the census data where there was remarkable results. and we are beginning to see that in per capita wages. incomes remain below the peak of 1999. that is her focus. she is talking about a very large infrastructure program which would create a lot of jobs. she is talking about getting more young people to go to

college and complete college because everybody can look at charts in terms of lifetime earnings. she is talking about making it easier for women to work in terms of taking care of children through paid leave and of course steps like higher minimum wage. i don't believe this increases regulation and i don't believe it imposes any additional restrictions on finance. >> what were you going to say? >> that sounded like a state of the union kind of a message. in other words, a whole bunch of programs but when you add them all up they simply don't add to the growth rate. i was struck as roger was saying that we have had a decent recovery. that is where the problem is. i think that is where a big difference of view is. we have had only 2% recovery on average for seven years. the worst since the great depression. that is what is inadequate. it hurts the inner cities. it hurts savers, people retiring on fixed income are really hurt

by this policy. so it is time for a change. it is time to try something new. trump is making the point that this country can grow 4% per year with a change in policy. that's what remember ronald reagan had 8% growth. bush had growth of 7% after doing tax cuts. and in addition trump is laying out a very careful plan to reform regulations and trade and energy, each of those adds materially to the growth rate. that is what the country needs and wants and should have. i'm just struck by president obama and hillary clinton saying what we have is good enough. >> you know those growth rates were coming out of recessions mostly. and i wonder if the case becomes more difficult to make given consumer confidence number today at about a nine-year high. in other words, it is starting to get out there into the public that maybe they don't feel so desperate about it. >> what makes the case difficult to make is that the last time

the republicans held the white house we had the worst financial crisis since the '30s. now as a result of all of those head winds we are beginning to climb out. we saw amazing data in terms of increases in income. every income category participated and we are seeing pickups. now the argument is let's go back to policies. >> quick last word. >> we aren't doing nearly well enough. yes there has been something less bad happening in the last couple of months maybe with the election. >> we'll see what poll numbers say.

>> largest chain guiding lower forecasting weak -- short fall driven by lower than expected traffic and continued aggressive competitive activity according to the company we are looking at shares down about 7% here in after hours trade. >> this despite lower gas prices. another casualty of the recession. time for cnbc news update. >> a former executive testified that governor chris christie did know about the lane closures at the george washington bridge on the third day of grid lock. he said he told christie during a ceremony at the world trade

center. >> i want to be clear to all of you, i have not and will not say anything different than i have been saying. no matter what is said out there. i had no knowledge prior to or during these lane realignments. >> tyson foods says it is voluntarily recalling more than 132,000 pounds of chicken nuggets after receiving reports of plastic found inside the nuggets. a washington state trooper ticketed a single driver trying to get through car pool lane with giant cutout of donald trump in the passenger seat. the lane violation cost him $136. that's going to fool them. that's the news update this hour. won't try that one next

time. oil under pressure on news it doesn't look like opec will reach a production freeze deal. we will head to meeting to find out what it means for oil prices here. elon musk presents his plan to colonize mars. later on "closing bell."

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welcome back. it was a rally day on wall street. the dow added 133 points. the s&p up about 13 to 2,159 and the nasdaq up 48. close 5,305. the oil inventory numbers were just out showing unexpected draw down so crude oil prices under a lot of pressure settled lower at leaders meeting in algeria. so far no deal. we'll see if this helps support prices into tomorrow's session. goldman sachs head of commodities on power lunch lowering forecast for oil say tg is not about algiers, it is about the fundamentals. here are his reasons for the

downgrade. >> really three key drivers driving this. one, when you look at u.s. production declines they slowed tremendously in the past few months. we like to call the wall of supply. wall of supply applies to oil, copper, all the caommodities. it is starting to come online. the third factor is the idea that opec and low cost producers have incentive to pursue market share. >> kent morris is at the meeting in algiers. he joins us on the phone. welcome to you. what is your forecast for oil here? >> based on what is occurring today here and elsewhere we are looking at my range is about the same as anyone else and that is about $43 to $47 a barrel wti

short term. there are developments that have taken place here that i think are extremely positive. i foresee the following taking place. a number of people are now saying essentially the same thing. our next opec meeting takes place at the vienna on november 30. there is now a consensus developing that we may have an extraordinary session before then, probably four to six weeks out. the iraniers rejected the overture. there is a considerable amount of negotiation. everybo everybody -- the crisis developed and right now as jeff just mentioned in your sound byte we have a situation where nobody has vested interest in keeping oil on the ground.

right now your market share demands you sell it even though the overall flow is declining and that is not sustainable. i'm seeing low $50 a barrel by the time we reach the end of this year and looking at 53 to $65 a barrel by the end of first quarter of 2017. that requires that the balance be clearly in focus and that balance requires that production remain tempered. those are the great unknowns. >> is there any reason to believe that opec is an effective organization that does what it proports to do at this point? >> it depends how you define that. i mentioned this a while ago on "closing bell" a couple of months ago that controlling 40% of the world's oil supply doesn't buy -- there is a considerable amount of non-opec elements coming into play.

one are producers like russia. the russians are now well over $11 million barrels a day. that is not sustainable. it does indicate there are sources out there. the second thing we have to remember about all of this is that opec has a diminishing impact we all recognize the fact that there is a considerable amount of extractable reserves to bear on the market. and that tempers the price. that is something that opec can't factor in. that is american production. >> is there any one thing that opec can do to change the price of oil? >> i think short term what we need here is a consensus. that consensus is likely to

start developing in the meetings tomorrow. these meetings are marginal to the conference itself. these are closed door meetings. what we hear we will hear essentially as one or more of these parties start presenting strategic leaks as we move down. we have to simply ignore the venezuelans for the moment and algerians who are so hurting from a simple budgetary standpoint that they will grasp at any straw. this is not a cut. it is a gap. and if they take the january figures that was one of the largest aggregate volume figures in years. that is not sustainable when you take a look at it across the board. what opec has to do here moving forward is reach that consensus and then get around the bigger problem. the bigger problem is a huge rising geopolitical tension from

both sides of the persian gulf. this is an iranian saudi competition. that competition will be played out on a chess board that has barrels of oil. >> the one we can't get into here. thanks for joining us. >> sounds like a no they cannot. >> not in the short term. there might be meetings to set the stage. >> and meetings. >> even with that a $63 price target feels like we are getting back to the level. when -- plenty of room before it forces bed fellows. >> elon musk has plans for mars. we'll bring you the details and how viable it is next. >> meanwhile under fire. what it means for bottom line coming up.

you are watching cnbc.

welcome back. elon musk presenting space x's plans to colonize mars at the international astronautical conference. it is the latest of the plans for space travel and exploration. morgan brennan joins us with the details sgrmpt had colonizing mars is the reason that elon musk started this company making the presentation highly

anatasepated. this is the interplanetary transport system. this is space x's architecture to get people and cargo to mars including space craft. for fuel to get that spacecraft on its average 140 million mile journey to mars. it has already built a fuel tank. this is carbon fiber. right now optimistic cost per person is $10 million. the chief is planning to drive costs down by making everything reusable and sending as many as 200 people per mission. the goal, a price tag comparable to buying a home. >> the very first flights would be fairly expensive and allows for a cost per ticket of less than $200,000. maybe as low as $100,000 over

time depending how much mass a person takes. >> this is extremely ambitious. musk adding it has to be fun and exciting to get people to go. he is thinking cabins, restaurant, movies included on the spacecraft. musk saying he is personally accumulating assets to fund as much as he can. on the heels of that explosion earlier this month that he is quote a bit fuzzy about timelines. still planning to refly a landed booster and planning to send dragon 2 to mars in a couple of years and another in 2020. he also said that the whole point of this is to basically build an interplanetary transportation network and likened it to the building of the union pacific railroad and what that has done in the western part of the u.s. >> i think it is great that people are thinking big. i wish he would focus on the hyperloop because i feel like it could change my life. by the way, saying they can use

the hooper loop to get containers off ships and bring them to ports. focus on the hyperloop. >> you are right. focus on the technology that could be possible here in the countryinteresting, because some of the technology he was outlining here today, as well, he was also saying that these rockets could basically go back and forth, and go from the atlantic ocean to tokyo, and be used to move freight, as well, through the orbit. >> all right. >> in as little as 20 minutes. so -- >> solarcity, kelly. tesla. >> it requires rights of way, zoning issues. and on mars, it's just all over. >> there for the taking. this may need to roll back the regulation. >> are there financials for that trip? >> yeah, morgan, you can have them. i have no interest. >> it's funny, he says he won't be the first person to go to mars. because he says the risk of dying is too great. >> oh. all right. morgan, thank you so much. >> all right. >> morgan brennen. we have a news alert.

sue herera, what's happening? >> we are citing reuters on this, reporting that u.s. supreme court is refusing to put the s.e.c. enforcement action against lynn tilten on hold. that means that the complaint can go forward. ms. tiltan was accused of hiding the poor performance of assets underlying her zoeharr fund, a collateralized loan obligation fund and accused of collecting $200 million in improper fees. she sued the s.e.c. to stop the enforcement action. the u.s. supreme court, according to reuters, is refusing to put the enforcement on her on hold. so it can proceed. data analytics giant has a big fight on its hands with one of its main consumers. why the u.s. government is suing

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palantir's reputation may grow but for the wrong reasons right now. the labor department filed a lawsuit against the company for discriminating in its hiring practices and they're a big customer. josh lipton joins from san francisco with more. josh? >> well, that's right, kelly. so the labor department is now saying that palantir is discriminating against asian job applicants. in one example, cited in the lawsuit a software engineering position, attracted a pool of some 1,200 applicants. of that number, 85% were asian. but palantir ultimately hired only 11 asian applicants, and 14

nonasian applicants. so the government says the likelihood that this result occurred according just to chance is about 1 in 3.4 million. but palantir is punching right back here, disputing uncle sam's methodology, saying that the department of labor relies on a narrow and flawed statistical analysis, relating to thee job descriptions from 2010 to 2011. palantir, of course, was founded by silicon valley all-stars, joe tooel and peter license dale. sources tell cnbc that the company's annual revenue topped $1.5 billion in 2015. government agencies are big buyers of this technology. but this lawsuit now seeks an order cancelling palantir's government contracts and barring future agreements until the company fixes this alleged discrimination. kelly, back to you. >> yeah, josh, thank you. it's kind of an odd one.

>> it is odd. it does to some degree echo what has gone on in some university applicant pools, i think. where it's almost reverse affirmative action, which, of course, could be interpreted as discrimination. if you want government contracts, it's real. >> if they weren't a customer, they wouldn't have the basis for bringing the suit, right? the government -- >> well, i don't know. if it would just be the labor department. >> the department of labor, probably can. >> we're just minutes away from nike's conference call. next, we'll get a check on the stock and what to listen for when "closing bell" comes right back. or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the... get off the computer traitor! i won't. (cannon sound) mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars.

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welcome back. we are checking on shares of nike after hours, which sold off after the company released earnings that beat on the bottom and, in fact, the top line but had disappointing futures numbers. the stock down 4.3% and the futures a gauge of how the business is doing now as opposed to in the quarter, and, by the way, the north american figure was the disappointment. >> that was the real focus. north american figures. you know, the stock has tried to kind of downgrade the market's assessment of what the company is doing fundamentally but hasn't been able to get ahead. the stock has been in a pretty nasty down trend for a while. i think the sell site has to cool its outlook as well before we have confidence a hot of the bad news is priced in.

what. >> does it say to you, dennis? >> about nike? >> ath leisure. >> ath leisure is a powerful trend not to be diminished. lululemon was a good buy in 2016. >> thank you for joining us here on the show. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, guy adami. nike blowing out earnings expectations but the stock sinking after hours. we'll tell why investors are running scared. and we've got dom chu at the new york stock markets monitoring. donald trump taking on not just hillary clinton, but janet yellen and in the process heighting a risk we have taken on right here on this desk. we'll explain. and later, one biotech stock could be on the verge of a major blockbuster deal.