because these things can get hacked these days. in any case, uber, it might be really interesting as a way of encouraging. >> basically assemble a lot of these types of perks, yes. >> rob, mike, thank you guys for joining us this afternoon on "closing bell." that does it for us, and "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders are tim seymour, karen finerman, brian and guy adami. stocks away from a high. a strange anomaly telling investors to ring the register. why you should be concerned. and one trader betting 60 million bucks on one of wall street's least loved stocks. we'll tell why they did it. and did you catch last week's big football game? probably not, because nfl ratings have been sacked this year. we'll tell you what's behind the trend and what stocks could get sacked as well. first, one crude move. oil seeing its best day since

april 5th on reports opec reached a deal, sending energy stocks along with it. the ibt fwrated names in big games names. the oil services stocks also seeing a nice day. halliburton and schlumberger benefit benefited. is this rally in oil going to continue and what is the best way to play it? i guess when we say is it going to it continue, contingent on that, do you believe they have reached a deal, because this is going to be implemented in november? >> i think what you can be sure of is that the sentiment between saudi and iran has improved. iran is better off than they were. they may be in a position of strength. saudi is given some ground. informal talks. nothing expected here. i think there is a lot of momentum into november and i think we knew that even before today. so i think things are better. remember, november last year was the disaster essentially that put the final into the bottom of oil. so i actually think you can believe that things are better. and i think actually whether you get a deal or not in november, saudi at 65 bucks a barrel, not

happy. >> the key here, remember, saudi arabia last may replaced their oil minister, the old oil minister's plan was let's get market share, let's flood the market. in may, after the disastrous plan said we've had now. now saudi arabia is also trying to move away from oil. so they're going to sell off sawedia ram co. they need higher stock prices so they are more amenable to a deal. so, yes, i think this is sustainable. whether or not people cheat doesn't really matter. the way the oil market is set up right now, i don't think people realize how willing saudi arabia is and how much they need, at least a floor in oil prices, if not higher. >> we like to do math, right? we all -- karen went to warden. i mean, we're good at math. so it's a round of 700 million barrel per day. >> 700,000. >> yeah. >> per day. >> good at math. >> well, i didn't even start the math. >> yeah. >> all right. so that happens in november.

>> right. >> this is only for opec countries. russia, for one, is not an opec country. and their production expected to increase next year by 2.7% according to ubs. frackers could do whatever the heck they want, karen. do you think this is going to have an impact on oil prices? >> i'm skeptical they actually implement the deal. >> even the deal. >> yes. >> okay. >> so, i mean, i saw oil up nicely today. let's say i knew for sure it was going to happen. i don't know how much would oil have been up? maybe more. because -- but i'm skeptical. i feel like, you know, it's a precarious agreement. and i'm skeptical they get there. >> yeah, i mean, any time you talk about opec, i think there is skepticism. and i think only one-third of now oil production is from opec countries. but to answer your question, how long can it last? well, guess what this week is? you have month-end, quarter-end so can it last the rest of the week? absolutely. can that take wti to $49.5, $50?

absolutely. can it take anadarko petroleum, a lot of other names you mentioned, can that take it up another 8 to 10% the rest of this week? absolutely. and i think that's how you play it. the refiners are probably dead money for a little bit. good balance sheet name, chevron, exxonmobil, still in play. >> we didn't see near the gains in refiners, clearly than other parts of the space. if you believe this, and you're going to place your bets on an oil equity, why not go the frackers, because they're seeing the most up side gain because they have the most to gain here. >> well, you want to find the most impaired balance sheets, because they're the ones that have the most to gain and surviving in this environment. so i do think that the big integrated names are not where you want to go. i think oil services, look at the oih up 6% today. these are the places where you if you believe -- especially in opec, a lot of the offshore drilling is, and at least other places i think you could put a lot of companies to work. so if you want to trade this, that oil is going higher, find the small and mid cap names,

dare i say, because they're the ones with the most leverage. >> i like your apc. you did a great job on that and remember they did the secondary. that was when you thought it was a great time to buy. they're actually buying assets. now that looks smart if they're able to do that. but i think there's probably more to run in apc. i like his call. >> oih -- we have all mentioned it. it's traded against $26 since last april. now up $28, up to 28.5% today. to me, that's the greatest risk/reward in the oil spice out there right now. i wouldn't buy it up 6%. but you get a pull back in oih, that's what you buy because you know below 26 you're stopped out. >> a little cold water on this? >> yeah, could be refreshing. >> yeah. not on a day like today. it's chilly outside. >> true. anyway -- a hot summer day. >> some you think it's chilly out. for bk, it's not. >> come on. >> look at the ovx today. you would think on a day like

today, the ovx, which has been rallying off the 38 level, you would have thought maybe and correctly, obviously, that would have sold off with the rallying crude oil. the exact opposite happened. that had a big rally today. highest levels we have seen in quite some time. so i think the ovx is saying this may last for a few more days but the rally could be short. >> what i want to know, what happened to a world everyone assumed oil was going lower and this was just a bad rally and ultimately really what this has to say, the market is much more in balance than people have been giving it credit for. now, i should -- be hearing bears say hey, look, get to $60 on oil, u.s. production is going to flood the market and you want to sell this thing. but to me, oil has been a very difficult trade. it's been a trade that actually has -- i think responded to central bank activity that the fact is, it's been driving central bank activity. if oil is truly higher, by the way, i think you can look at an impact on interest rates, it's going to affect the way the ecb

acts. remember, they were forced into action by the spiral of oil in january of 2015. so these are things to think about. >> for more on the story, let's bring in the woman who called today's rally in crude, the global head of commodity strategy joins us. great to have you with us. i've got your note from september 22 and your most likely scenario. number one is that the group would finalize the plan on or before the upcoming opec meeting in november. this is the most likely scenario. >> look how happy she is. >> she called it right. i don't think many people believed this at this time. in terms of the rally in crude, does this stick, though? >> i think what opec has done is bought themselves the floor for the next two months. so, yes, we can move a bit higher for the next couple days. but they have really firmed the floor in the mid 40s. and i think that is what is important for opec. the details need to be determined. i mean, it's about a $900,000 barrel day cut, saudi taking most of it. the rest has to be apportioned. everybody had written opec off as dead on arrival before this meeting.

no one thought they could get this done. i think everyone has to now think about opec having a heartbeat again. >> isn't this just -- not to -- assuming opec sticks with this, in november, and that the production -- the production figures are respected by each member of opec, isn't this just a yes, go ahead to russia, to the u.s. frackers to produce more and more and more? >> well, i think what opec is really aiming for, you don't hear them talking about 75 or 80 any more. they're aiming for the 50s to 60 range. and i think they think, yeah, that brings on some of the perm yent, but doesn't bring back the baca, doesn't bring back the eagle fort, so they don't have to worry about a flood of u.s. production. i think they think they can manage the u.s. producers at 50 to 60. while at the same time, meeting some of their fiscal requirements. i mean, this was done because some of the keo peck producers are really feeling the strain of low oil prices. so it's the new goldilocks, not 75, 80 right now. >> it's brian kelly. i'm curious on the demand side.

that's the bearish case for oil. a slow to slower global economy. demand not going to be there, even if it goes up to 16. an everyone willing of supply. what do you see on the demand side of it? >> we don't think demand has been spectacular, but pretty sed steady. we think it will be a 1, 1.2 milli 1.2 million demand growth this year. the highlight for demand growth has been india. and so i think that's what we're going to be looking for the end of growth, not just this year but for the next couple years. i don't think demand is really the problem in this market. the problem in this market has been persistent oversupply. so that's why it's important that opec take action today. >> it's tim. what tongue do you think about technology being seen done in the u.s. how about what it could be doing to old soviet fields or venezuela? and couldn't we have a massive new glut of oil coming on from people you can't control who really need it? >> venezuela is already down 300,000 barrels a day because they can't pay their employees.

i don't think venezuela is really going to be looking to for the shale oil revolution. questions about argentina. again, you've got to incentivize companies to go there. shale has been productive in the u.s. it hasn't really taken off anywhere else. so, you know, potentially in time. but that's not a factor right now. >> what -- i mean, clearly, you think that there is an agreement in place. what are some of the reasons why opec might not follow through in november? what should we be looking for in terms of this deal not making place? >> what you want to watch for is how do you accommodate iran? basically details to be determined. iran is a pretty aggressive going into these negotiations. the saudis had to give ground to them. so that posititentially could dl it. the saudis are going to basically bear the burden of this. they're going to go down to basically january levels. but i expect it actually to hold for now. >> all right.

helema, thank you. the prices aren't going to be enough to bring back the bakken players so maybe the rally we're seeing in some of them are misplaced. >> because it's not just the price. the price has to be sustained long enough to get people to feel comfortable, you know, reengaging. >> but the names you want to look at now in addition to the small caps are the guys that left themselves with enough operational leverage and taking market share, eog, apache, san darko, the names that continue to do well and i think saudi arabia at a 13, 14% fiscal deficit on their budget is actually hurting a lot more than iran who has been used to sanctions and surviving. it's something to think about why saudi is giving in here. >> the impact i think on high yield was very interesting today. we did see that bump a little bit higher on the headlines of this deal. >> and the banks, too. >> yes. >> so you saw everything that we worried about earlier in the year just is completely off the table. at this point in time. so there is likely this runway.

so you have a lot of things converging here. you have from now until november for oil to run higher. that could also have an impact on what the fed does in december. of so the next two months, you're fine. after that, i would be a little concerned. but i think you can buy the the banks on this, and i think you can buy the oil -- >> sounds like a gold locks period here for the next two months, right, guy? on the sidelines. oil is higher. no longer worrying the credit market. >> never a fan of that -- what is it, like a fable? or what do you call goldilocks. >> are we or are we not. >> amazing we got to that place. up next, hillary clinton may have just won over a crucial block of voters. we'll tell you who they are and what it could mean for the markets. plus, check out shares of intracellular. that's a real livestock. it's down 70% in the after hours session. this is a $2 billion company. so what is taking it down? we'll tell you right after this break. and later, a strange and rare market anomaly could be signaling a sell sign to the

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welcome back to "fast money." breaking news on a new poll naming the winner of monday night's debate. john harwood in d.c. for

details. >> melissa, new results from the nbc new survey monkey online poll conducted. it shows by a 52-21% margin, americans thought, that is likely voters, thought that hillary clinton won that first debate only 21% thought. a couple of significant findings beneath that top line win for hillary clinton. first of all, she managed to strengthen her democratic base, which is an important priority, because she needs to motivate them to get them to turn out to vote. so you see that 50% of democrats said their opinion of hillary clinton, even though she's been known for a long time, changed for the better after the debate just a couple percent said it got worse. donald trump had only a quarter of republicans saying their opinion changed for the better of him. 6% said it changed for the worse. and a critical target group is female voters. donald trump has been running behind among them. he needs to make up some of that gender gap. we saw that among women, hillary

clinton improved her standing by 30-13, more than 2 to 1. donald trump went backwards by 2-1. 11% of women said their opinion of donald trump changed for the better. 27% said it changed for the worse. and finally, melissa, 69% of female likely voters say donald trump does not have the personality and temperament to serve as president. that is a huge obstacle facing him as he moves toward election day, needs to do something about that in debates number two and three. >> 69%. john, thank you. john harwood in d.c. to go back to your goldilocks theory, brian kelly. does this feed into it? >> right, yeah. i'm not sure that i want to be paint's as the goldilocks guy, but i would say, that is one more obstacle out there, one more thing the market was worried about that perhaps now you don't -- doesn't need to be worried about. >> i think this sets you up for an election fade, though. especially -- so hillary, you know, if we go sideways, dovish,

fed leave it own, back to where we were with someone who is terrible for business, terrible for reinvestment. you get a little fiscal package. but the bottom line here is, if people are complaining about valuations here, how are they going to look at them in a hillary clinton presidency? so i don't think this is great news for the market, even though i think that's the practical reality of debate. i agree. for health care and biotech, interesting, it didn't come up. i'm not sure if it was supposed. but for the pressure on these stocks, i think that was interesting. >> speaking of biotech, more breaking news on a particular biotech stock actually down almost 70% after earnings. seema mody has the details. >> intracellular therapies under pressure here after announcing a disappointing phase three trial of a new kind of schizophrenia drug. the data doesn't show that it did significantly better than a placebo. the company says it thinks the placebo response rate was unusually high and that it is

committed to continue developing the drug, and is also requesting a meeting with the fda. but you can see shares down about 68% here after hours, melissa. >> all right. seema mody, thank you. and remember, this is not certainly the first biotech stock we have seen with this sort of binary outcome. we had nova vax, same thing. >> i don't want to say one-trick pony, but a lot of eggs in this basket. you can see how devastating that is. it would be easy say on had flush it's a stock you want to take a look at. i don't think it is. i think there is at least a few more days of this. the volume over the week is going to be huge. maybe we'll talk about this when it gets to single digits. >> at the same time, we have seen the same thing in reverse where we have seen the decline in shares because originally news is perceived as bad and then it turns out to be okay. roller coaster ride. >> i don't know about anything on the drug side of it, but just looking at the balance sheet, with this market cap being absolutely crushed, it looks to me like 400-plus million of

cash. i don't know what their burn rate is, but now you're looking at something very different. it's not -- i mean, that's close to a kind of flier. because the market -- because the value -- >> especially if what they suggested that the data may be -- i don't want to say skewed, but it sounds like that the placebo was outside the range that you would expect a placebo to be. so maybe there was something incorrect with the study. so what i'm saying, if it's a flier, you actually maybe have a little bit of a fundamental reason to buy. >> really? >> not tomorrow, though. >> no, no. >> oh, my god -- >> yeah, yeah. >> but you're saying this thing is not trading one times cash, effectively. and that looks interesting. >> less. >> but i don't know how big the burn is. i don't know how quickly. >> still ahead, one trader betting a whopping $60 million on one of the street's least-loved stocks. which one? we'll give you the name and tell you what has them making such a bold move. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc.

>> human sacrifice, dogs and cats, living together. mass hysteria. >> that's exactly what is happening to the relationship between stocks and bonds and it could signal a tipping point for the rally. we'll explain. plus, football ratings are getting sacked. and it could spell trouble for a number of stocks. we'll tell you which ones when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money." take a look at the moves in both cbs and viacom. the holding company of red stone, which owns 80% voting control of viacom and cbs is preparing a call for the companies to explore a merger. but this shouldn't come as a surprise. last week, bank of america analyst jessica reef cohen had

this to say. >> i wouldn't rule out cbs. viacom needs a lot of help. we have underperformed for years. it's completely mismanaged -- or under -- there are assets that can be fixed. no reason why para mount could not be fixed. absolutely, it can. so this will make an attractive position. the story is not completely done. >> all right. so let's trade this. let's say you were the ceo of a media company, one of the fastest-growing media companies out there. you're looking at a legacy as one of the great media companies ceos out there and somebody came up to you and said, hey, do you want to get together, and morning with a company that has declining cable properties, that's got a mess of a movie studio? what do you say? >> well, definitely not after ben her. but you have a case when it

comes to price and sinnynergiesd businesses. there is a lot there with viacom. i think people price viacom as if there is nothing left to the franchise, even though we know comedy central has taken a hit. i think you're out of place with the valuation, it is interesting. i'm not saying you have to make the acquisition but for investors, it's worth looking at. >> i think the risk/reward is interesting. there's not a lot in it on the potential cbs merger. a lot of things going wrong, jon stewart leaving, skinny bundle, the boardroom shenanigans ridiculousness. all of that -- is going to go away. or is priced in, i think. so the risk/reward i think is kind of interesting. >> yeah. so i'm -- you know, i'm with you guys. i like it too. i like viacom. >> goldilocks. >> i'm a happy guy today. >> i know, where is your bear suit? >> it must be -- i'll tell you what. at $41, i mean, viacom has been

dead, dying money for a long time. we know that there is change going on now. so for me, if i look at a stock like that, i know where my stoppout is, probably in the high 30s. you know, it's not a bad shot. >> let me flip this around if you're a cbs shareholder or looking at cbs, would you continue to hold or buy with the prospect it could be tied to via krom? >> look at you. look at you. so if it was a current cbs shareholder. >> or you're looking at investing in cbs. would this change the way you view it, because you could potentially be tied up to viacom. >> great question. i think everyone makes a great point in terms of viacom. the valuation is compelling and the bad news is in the stock. if you're asking me, would i get out of my cbs shares because they're considering viacom, i would rather them try to buy viacom on what is the cheap now than for them to overpay a year or so ago when the stock wasn't at its pinnacle but the valuation was probably twice what it is. at least they're going after

what appears to be a distressed property that could be turned arndt. coming up, are you ready for some football? it looks like fewer and fewer viewers are. we have a special "fast money" report later this hour. and one market anomaly happening right now. that could be signalling stocks are about to take a big leg lower. how concerned should you be? we'll explain when "fast money" returns. ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh)

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welcome back to "fast money." the nfl music you're hearing is fake, because we can't afford to pay for the actual sound track. the league is experiencing a very real problem. television ratings are way down this season. the real julia boorstin is here in the house for an encore performance here at the nasdaq. nice to see you again. are they really down? >> well, they are, and if you look at monday nights ratings, for monday night football, it really suffered with competition with the big presidential debate. the number of viewers declining 40% from the year earlier game, according to sports media watch. this comes after ratings for the

first two weeks of sunday night and monday night football games on nbc and espn. declined an average of 12% from the prior year. and cbs' first thursday night football game fell 26%. this year's games are facing tough comparisons with a huge start to the season last year. but that's not all. the league is lacking at some of its star power. three of the top five most powerful players not playing so far this year. tom brady, peyton manning and tony romo. and there's an overall shift of viewing to mobile devices. and though the nfl will make money from its new streaming deal with twitter, that's not going to help the tv networks. there's also the question of whether the press attention on colin kaepernick's boycotting of the national anthem is impacting ratings. as for the media giant, that's riding out the ratings decline, it's pointed out that fox has been fairing better than espn and nbc with its ratings for

sunday games consistently higher than last year. >> let me ask something. how does it -- do you have the date on how the viewing is over the course of the game? does it fall off differently this year than it might have? >> you know, i don't have the specific data. but it would be interesting to look at it. i mean, especially for the most recent games. i haven't seen it yet. but i haven't seen what happens over the course of the game. a lost of people saying this year's games haven't been as exciting. so i think it's more a quirk of the season than anything. >> so if you're a tv network and you're negotiating the rights to broadcast nfl in the future, do you have a better chance of getting a lower price? well . >> well, i don't think right now any of those rights are up for negotiation. so we're sort of the beginning of the season, a lot of hope that things will get better over the course of the season. and the networks really count on sports and on football in particular to be a sure thing. so i think there's hope that it will turn around. >> but how much of the nfl's problem is the fact that the nfl has been so popular so the comps you talked about. but the fact that i've got a sunday night game, a thursday

night game, a monday night game. i mean -- it's kind of ubiquitous, dare i say. so to me, that's the problem. there's no exclusivity to the games any more. >> does the digital platforms make it better or worse. snapchat. live streaming on twitter. the fact that you know you can get it everywhere, that's supposed to help. but it may not be. >> yeah. >> so i'm curious then. if you go over all platforms, is viewership just down or do people not want to watch the nfl any more? is it a digital platform issue or people don't like the game? >> total viewership is not down but if you look at the sunday night games and monday night games, those games have been down for the first three weeks. we'll see what happens as the season goes on. still early in the season. >> what does this hurt the most? >> well, it seems like it's nbc and it's espn. because they have the sunday night and monday night games. and also, this is going to be a big political season. the debates, all of this

political attention. it's going to hurt someone. but at the end of the day, the expectation is that the nfl still is the gold standard when it comes to what drives live viewing. >> in terms of the offset to the decline, maybe in ad prices they can get for declining viewership in sports, should wan't the political season help buffer that? >> if you're looking at the nfl -- everyone has been saying the political season has been great for advertising. monday night, there were no ads during the debate itself, but ads before and after were selling at record prices. so, yes, so political advertising is great for all of the networks. though the nfl ratings being down so far is not particularly fantastic for them. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin, safe trip back to l.a. guy? >> one thing we didn't mention. your views on the national anthem notwithstanding, i think that may have something to do with it as well. maybe they just aggravated enough people where people aren't watching for that reason. the hits keep coming for disney and this clearly doesn't help them. the stock is languishing on a day like it today where it

should have been up. flounders on good tapes, underperforms bad tapes. so i think disney is still a name that until something changes, which i don't see it changing, you've got to stay away from. >> yeah. >> well, listen. it's going back to the digital platforms. that's what we're seeing here. it's not necessarily in my view just the nfl. this is tv as we know how to watch it is completely changing. so you know, it's good for twitter, although that's -- you know, hard to trade that on this particular news right now. but good for twitter, good for facebook. and then obviously some of the untradeable ones, snapchat, that type of thing. >> i think it's bad for the publicly traded sports franchis franchises. the tv contracts, okay, that helps. but the national networks, you know, if you don't believe the same deals are cut. the commercial real estate bubble they have benefited from. i think the bubble nature of sports franchises is part of the fallout from all of this. if, in fact, tv contracts are seen there -- >> so you're just saying it would hurt disney the most?

>> i think out of all the companies i can think of that are publicly traded, disney has the most to lose. >> sure, but does that bolster the case for the disney/twitter tiup because they're trying to get that streaming piece and people are watching. >> maybe. clearly you've been talking about this for a while. this espn is obviously a huge engine for them. i wouldn't -- i think it's a little bit undisciplined for them to buy twitter. it's expensive, very expensive. so i don't know. but -- somebody is going to buy twitter. i do believe it gets sold. a news alert on carl icahn. >> melissa, the name is transocean. carl icahn cutting a stake in transocean from 5.8% to 1.5%. icahn does say he continues to have confidence in transocean's management team. in fact, he says transocean management team has done a, quote, outstanding job. shares are down slightly after hours but down about 19% year-to-date, melissa.

>> all right. seema mody, thank you. the reason behind the sale is also going to be important for investors to grapple with, whether or not he is selling for other reasons. >> how can he say these guys have done a great job. this is a company that i think has been poorly run, overspending at the top of the market. the stock is down 10 bucks. and you're now selling it. so i mean, i don't think this is a day to rejoice. this seems like you're selling the bottom. >> well, the headline that i saw said that he sold it for tax purposes. so that to me -- that's why he's saying he still believes in the company. if this is a tax sale, i wouldn't read much into his view on the company. but i still -- i mean, it's a tough day -- maybe he sold them all today, up 6%. that would be nice. >> it would be interesting to see 31 days from now when the tax loss -- if he's back in, that would really be a good sign for them. or if he just says that and he's gone. i don't know. >> tim now on the head -- they have done anything but a great job. i mean, stock performance is the ultimate judge and jury, then

just take a look at where the stock was the end of 2014, and look at where it is now. >> don't you have to judge it in the context of the industry? >> okay, if you want to judge it on the context. industry, i still think they're underperforming some of their peers. still ahead, something happening in the market that could be a major sell signal. what it is and why it has investors running for cover. and a burger bummer. fast food chains getting whacked. we explain later in hour. much more "fast money" still ahead.

♪ you probably have been listening to the show all of the time and wondering what's going on over there. the there is a party going on it at the nasdaq market site. while they're having all that fun we're here talking stocks. >> are you at all of the parties? >> every one. >> and now back to the show. stocks and bonds have moved together for years, but now that correlation has never been higher. and it could spell big trouble for the markets. let's go to a guy never in trouble, dominic chu in the news room. >> i try to stay out of trouble as best i can, melissa. sometimes it just happens and that trouble is what some

traders are watching out for these days so we know that stocks and bonds have been trading together since the financial crisis, given the central bank intervention in the markets. stocks near record highs and government bonds have been bit up, as well, to those kind of lofty levels. keeping interest rates low. in normal times, you would expect to see a scenario where something has got to give. do stocks have it right or those seeking the safety of bonds have it right? according to nick coalis, we could be seeing those correlations pick up again, because what he calls a slow-motion interest rate cycle to the upside. so what we're talking about. we've got both asset classes at higher levels. if and when the fed raises interest rates or even threatens to, you could see a big down draft to both prices for long-term bonds, and for stocks, as well. both moving together. kind of like what happened at the end of last year when the fed raised interest rates. but it may not be all that doom and gloom, though. also notes that sector correlations on average, they have been dropping since 2011. in other words, you don't have as much of that wholesale risk

on, risk off trade where everything goes up and down together. he also notes that in the past when there have been some temporary spikes in this kind of volatility around these trading correlations, it's been a buying opportunity. so from a strategist point of view, melissa, he thinks it's still a little too early in the rate cycle. but it is some interesting food for thought. back over to you guys. >> thank you,dom. that market anomaly between stocks and bonds affects our next guest, greg parsons, specializing in mortgage securities. total return fund up 7% over the past year. greg, good to see you again. >> great to be back. >> do you watch this correlation? does it worry you at all? >> i wouldn't say it worries us. you know, the amount of liquidity pumped into the system, our perspective, is distorted kind of the normal search among sectors and asset classes so we're very cognizant of the factors, specifically rates where they are, being

historically low. but the correlation in and of itself is not a cause for concern. >> are you worried about people reaching for yield and maybe going out on the risk spectrum and how that's impacting different corners of your market? >> a lot of our constituents don't have a choice. if you have an actual bogey to hit in today's low rate environment, you're almost forced to stretch for yield. so the equity markets fairly valid, overvalued in the fix income markets, forced to explore alternative values to derive income. >> it sounds risky on the surface, but is it to do that? >> i think you need to be cautiously aware of where you're placing your bets. as an example, we are still grossly long mortgage. fundamentals continue to improve. generating yields north of 5 with very defensive posture relative to rates. but overall, yeah, if you start stretching for yield in sectors or asset classes where you don't understand the risk you're taking, yeah.

>> so i'm curious. bev within talking about goldilocks scenarios tonight. what is the scenario for mortgage bonds. is it rising rates? >> the current situation, you can argue about is the u.s. economy growing fast? the data suggests continue to improve in the u.s. economy in a sector relatively limited interest rate sensitivity. so continued anemically beline growth. >> so in terms of the sensitivity, what's the duration that you prefer at this point? >> so we're conservatively positioned. you know, effective duration, less than two. trading closer to zero. so we are very short from a duration perspective. >> understand, greg, the equity market is not a huge concern for you on a day-to-day basis. if, in fact, something were to happen in the equity market, to make it go down in a significant way, does that have any impact at all, negatively or positively on your business? >> look, i think in the

short-term, right, at some level, if there's risk off or carnage or damage in the equity markets, everything starts to correlate a little closer. over any longer-term medium to long-term time frame, no. >> to what extent is your client base or investor group change, and also possibly the regulatory or central banks or the quasi conduits they're using to buy? i don't know. is this -- is it different than five years ago? >> two kind of drivers. now there are ways for quote, unquote, the institutional retail to access the mortgage credit. back up 5, 10 years ago and really wasn't a sector that the average person or institutional of a retail can approach and now they can. frankly, we're seeing at least from their institution committee much more acceptance around sector specific strategies where it used to be fixed income or core plus, you're seeing folks much more willing to take on kind of isolated strategy where they think a plus -- whether it's high yield, mortgages, emerging markets, isolated

fashion to drive yield. >> thank you for coming by. frank parsons, semper capital. >> let's say that's true. except what you're saying, it's a really great time to be a mortgage owner, is it a great time to be a home builder? probably not bad. >> right. >> if you want to play the mortgage-backed securities home, there is an etf. mbb is the symbol. one of two things. looks like it wants to make a big breakout. obviously it could fail. but that's one to take a look at if you want to play that sector. >> bk is like -- >> it's all good. >> okay, wait, wait. but between him and dan -- right? lately? it's been like living in opposite world. right? >> it's been upside down day. >> i even like tim today. >> you like him, yeah. >> i don't like you back, though. >> wow! >> come on. >> very tough show. >> i'll tell you what. in terms of asset allocation, greg -- he's talking about

credit, he's talking about agency bonds, he's talking about things that have high sensitivity to the fed. i think if you look at the credit markets, the bottom line here is they are getting better. and the big fears of the market lows were that high-yield bonds were going to be taking us down. a lot of what we ran into i think was lickedty risks. prepare your list of what you want to own. >> we also -- i'm about to get wonky. but that 210 two years versus ten year spread we talked about that went down about 80 basis points and now is almost back down to the 80 basis point level, i don't know at what point people start to care. but at a certain point, people are going to start to care. i just don't know exactly where that is. >> still ahead, fast-move stocks adding to their losses. our any of the traders buying bipartisan or are we seeing peak burger. and retail stocks taking a hit today but one trader betting $60 million on one of the street's least-loved stocks.

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welcome back to "fast money." time for a burger buzz kill. sonic taking a hit after saying

its fourth quarter earnings will miss expectations and taking the rest of the burger stocks along with it. mcdonald's, shake shack and wendy's all moving lower today. these stocks all lower so far this year. that's as food prices have dropped for the ninth straight month. the longest stretch of deflation in 50 years. which means more people are staying at home to eat. so we ask a very important question. have we reached peak burger? >> depends which way you look at it. >> it's become -- it's become lunacy. but more importantly, people will pay for a good burger and always will. the valuations on these companies, the expected growth, the interpreted growth rates of these companies when they have been isolated. i speak of shake shack and also the other chains high multiple. buffalo wild wings. dave and busters. >> you own -- >> no, i don't. >> i want to be clear. >> if anything, they have an ability to improve that burger, and it's raised the quality and raised their game. and i think mcdonald's -- >> mcdonald's -- >> just said they did.

>> but they haven't done anything to their burger. they added breakfast, which is great but that's probably in the stock for me. i would much rather look stay shake shack. we'll look at the risk settler we regard. traded as low as 30 bucks, 35 now. i've got a pretty nice risk/reward on it. >> what's the multiple on that stock? >> the multiple never mattered on this. >> it mattered when it went down 620%. >> i wouldn't say that. >> if you think about what's going on, significantly higher wages to pay. yes, food costs are down. but i almost think commercial real estate is a issue. operating costs are going higher. and i think if anything, people are eating less. >> i'm sort of surprised, though. he heard the argument and we're playing devil's advocate. food costs being down. such a good environment for them. gas prices relatively low. people are employed. i think it's a good environment. so sonic today -- >> what price? >> it doesn't sound that expensive, actually.

shake -- you know, more expensive. but actually a higher growth. >> the chicken shacks coming out, there is growth there. >> is it a shack or has its own shack? >> a different shack. >> a co-shack. >> you can't mix the two. >> here's the question. >> horse shack. >> we're seeing the pain being taken on the restaurant side with food costs so low. we're also seeing the pain in the supermarket side. >> so who is winning? >> people eating at home. so what's going -- >> well casual dining is losing. the quick service is not as bad. >> so let's play the stock game. that's what we're here for. >> absolutely. >> there are names that definitely got ahead of themselves. >> even jack in the box. that probably even ran too far, too fast. but cmg. chipotle mexican grill. remember we talked about this a couple weeks ago. the night ackman came out and said he had a stake in the company, ran up to 445 that day on this show across the board and we said you've got to fade this move. which was correct. traded back down to 400.

but guess what happened? it held levels that it held all throughout the year, rising off those levels. i think it's 419 now. valuation is still stretched. but not nearly as bad as it was. you've got a couple good headlines. if they start operating just a wee bit better, this stock is back into the mid 450s, 475 level. >>. from burger to say blouses. that's some transition. one trader betting big. hey, mike. >> of we saw five times average daily put volume in gap stores. a big seller of the october 20 put selling 30,000 of those. this is somebody willing to purchase 3 million shares of gap at 20 bucks which is a discount of 10% from where it's trading. 60 million worth of stock. 4.5 million shares would get 1% of the company. this is going to be a top 30 holder if they get put the stock. this is a pretty big commitment. and a fairly bullish bet, i would say on gap stores, despite the negative publicity the

company has been getting. >> quickly gap trying to fix banana republic. style ambassadors. >> the style ambassador? is it enough? >> not to be confused with ambassador. on gap. >> no, i'm not in it. it's a cheap -- but i feel like it's kind of broken. >> all right. coming up next, "final trade." stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. doenough for retirement?aved

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welcome back to "fast money." time for a little fast but not least. disney fans getting ready for a "lion king" remake using the technology from "the jungle book" which earned $996 million worldwide. and we've got a sneak preview of the film. check it out. and look who is playing rafeki. our very own guy adami. tim seymour is the just-born lion sim ba. it's all part of the circle of life. >> i love of that. i am about to be king, though. time for "final trade." tim. >> fedex, as much as the talk on amazon, numbers two weeks ago were fantastic. get long fedex.

>> karen? >> yes, ticker wi-fi, a new name that i haven't talked about before. but the growth in wi-fi happening. >> bk. >> if oil keeps rising, we want to sell some tlt. >>tlt. >> ra ficky. >> thanks for watching. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. this should be a halcyon time for so many different stock groups. instead, it's a treacherous time where some things are working, but other t