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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 5, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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sleepover. >> second prize is two nights. by the way, in case you missed it, yum brands missed by a penny on the bottom line, down 2% in the after hours. mike and i will be here tomorrow, sara from the imf meetings could not be more excited in washington. >> my favorite place. >> thank you for young us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk, pete najari najarian, steve grasso, guy adami. the bond market wreaks havoc on dividend-paying stocks. four names not only surviving, but thriving in this rising rate environment. plus, a surprising group of stocks that were left for dead last year, up more than 100% this year. one of our traders thinks there's more room to run. and oil closing in on 50 bucks a barrel. any traders buying energy stocks on this?
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we will reveal. a developing story captivating both wall street and silicon valley today. will sales force make a bid for twitter? mark benioff is speaking right now. >> sales force ceo mark benioff on a bit of a shopping spree, buying companies left and right to build out his business. in fact, sales force has closed 11 acquisitions this fiscal year. among the biggest ones really making headlines, there was crux for $700 million. which should strengthen the company's marketing cloud. collaboration software developer kwip for $582 million and e-commerce providing demand ware for $2.8 billion. all buys would take a back seat if benioff didn't make a bid for twitter. today on cnbc, the ceo addressed those reports. >> we look at everything, you know that, jim. >> linkedin.
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>> we look at everything. you name it, we look at it. it's in our interest. we have to go deep on everything. we have to understand what is possible for our shareholders, what isn't. but in the scheme of things, if you look back at my track record as a ceo, i think you'll find that while i look at a lot of things, i actually pass on most things. >> there are reaches to believe benioff to make a bid for jack dorsey's company. we know he's open to the idea of buying an internet asset, given his interest in linked in. there is some overlap between the two companies. remember quip's founder is on the board. and the strategic fit. crm customers could potentially use twitter's data to create targeted marketing campaigns. still many analysts and investors seem skeptical. you can see that in the stock, which is in the red this year. down more than 10% over the last three months. ki ki kirkmaturn tells me he countries that deal would be too costly. he thinks the stock does remain
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under pressure, unless benioff comes out and flatley rejects these reports. he also says ultimately sales force is going to do what benioff thinks is in the long term interest of his company. melissa, back to you. >> all right. josh lipton, thanks so much. so we get to that question. should salesforce buy twitter and just to put in perspective, salesforce market cap is approximately $49 billion. a twitter deal could be $20 billion. this is going to be one of its biggest, if not the biggest acquisition chm makes. >> crm makes. >> quip was less than -- a $750 million deal. if they move, it's not going to move the needle necessarily. the company is not going to get lamb basted if they're wrong. if salesforce buys twitter and get it wrong, that's not catastrophic, but it's certainly not good. so -- i don't even know how this company lines up to buy twitter, frankly. benioff said, he would have paid more for linkedin. it's not like he's -- he's not adverse to making deals.
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but this -- i don't understand why this deal would make sense for them at all. >> i don't understand why he would be as open as he was. he's driving up the price himself. seems he's not making the best call here. we've all read the quotes. he now says the data is the new currency of the software world. what i find interesting, why is twitter's data suddenly so valuable when, in fact -- >> stand-alone, it wasn't valuable. why is it so valuable as a takeout? >> and, again, if twitter has any issue, it's people questioning the validity. we don't know the age or sex or a lot of things related to the core parts of what you're getting for people. >> what are the options market saying? >> i think the most interesting part, people yesterday, signalling to us they were not going to be bidding. and that's why the stock moved late in the day towards 72. but to guy's point, when you look at what the acquisitions have been, you're talking about a $2.3 billion, $2 billion. those are the the biggest, by the way, of the acquisitions.
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he has done 44 of them since they became a publicly traded company so it's really interesting to see the direction. he looks at a lot of things as he mentioned, benioff. but does he actually act on a lot of them? of course not. he's done 44. that is a lot. but when you look at the numbers, it just doesn't make sense. and i'm not so sure to these guys' point that the data that twitter can provide right now is something that's really somehow going to be worth $20 billion to a $50 billion firm that have to leverage themselves to make this deal. >> tim brought up a good point. why is he this honest, why is he this forthcoming with -- maybe he wants someone else to buy it. he's playing poker here. i think he wants the excuse that someone else takes -- >> at the cost of his own market cap? the stock is down 10%. >> that's -- >> i think it will bounce back, especially if someone else buys twitter. it will bounce back and bounce back dramatically more so than it has fallen off the table right now. if you look at it, he's trailed
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sap, oracle. >> this is the ultimate conspiracy theory. >> this is where we're at our best, the truth lies somewhere in the militant. i don't think he'll buy twitter. >> we're learning he's pouting for not getting linkedin. linkedin was $26 billion acquisition, as well. bigger than twitter. was he really going to do that? how much of this is grandstanding and gamesmanship? i don't know. crm didn't just fall off a cliff today. this is a stock that actually has fallen off a cliff since the middle of august on either some of these purchases. >> i think it's the twitter news. i don't think -- >> i know. it missed last quarter. they missed earnings estimates, they missed -- >> $81 a share. >> back in june -- the quarter is okay. i think the guidance hurt the stock and the stock was $83 or so in june, sold off since. this is a company -- i still think it's a great company. but valuation doesn't matter until it matters. and now it's starting to matter. to pete's point, though. if they don't do this deal, the stock gets back everything they lost and probably more so. i think he likes that -- he
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likes to put himself out there. this is getting the name of his company back out there. >> the deal goes ka-boom, it doesn't have -- >> goes away, yeah. >> goes away. twitter has a vested interest in keeping all of these rumors or hearsay, circulating. that's the bigger -- i'm still long twitter. that's the bigger problem. if this all goes away, then twitter drops the same way that crm will rally. >> for sure. >> all of this talk comes as one analyst slams a potential deal for twitter, saying it could destroy -- yes, destroy, as much as 25% of salesforce's value. aba, great to have you with us. how do you calculate the up to 25% destruction in market value for crm if it buys twitter? >> absolutely. we looked at free cash flow from twitter and salesforce.com and what they can do. right now salesforce trading 25
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times free cash flow. combined companies have a much higher risk and there is a lot for salesforce.com and completely uncharted territory, because it does not have any exposure to supported market. so when we look at that, we use 22 to 24 times cash flow that gets us to a value about 25% below the combined dual market caps of the company as of yesterday. today, salesforce has lost some value. but still, when we look at the combined company's value, that's 20% below what the two companies are trading at right now. >> you also go on to say, abheh, it could possibly regain the market value, except for the fact it would take two to three years to regain it, assuming everything goes well with the twitter integration. does that mean you don't see the strategic fit at all with twitter? >> you know, there's a lot of uncertainty. we can see value in getting the access to the data. we can see what mark can do if
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he has access to that data and for the customer support functions. but at the same time, there's a lot of uncertainty. 90% of twitter's revenues come from the supported model. there is going to be a lot of shift that mark will have to navigate through. so it's not going to be an easy company to integrate. and salesforce.com in competition with facebook and google, those are the two companies that don't compete right now. and it's going to have competitors with much deeper pockets. >> right. >> so it's going to put sales force in a completely new area and we think it increases execution risk, which would weigh in on the multiple for the next few years until he proves there is value in combining the two assets. >> let's say twitter -- excuse me, crm makes a bid for twitter. what do you think the shareholder reaction will be? as i understand it, benioff met with major shareholders today at the conference. we already know that one major shareholder has been very active. actively open about opposing a
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deal of its competitor, crm's competitor, oracle, with net suite, the biggest shareholder. do you anticipate that these funds could some out and just oppose it? if you take a look at the market reaction, obviously, there are huge questions hanging over a potential deal. >> absolutely. i think if the deal -- deal actually happens, there are a lot of salesforce.com stockholders who are going to get out. it's a very widely held stock. most of the financial institutions own large quantities of the stock and they're going to trim down significantly until there is some clarity on how the combined company works. if the deal doesn't happen, the salesforce.com stock is going to go up to where it was before this happened. and investors will be back to the fundamentals. the fundamentals are very strong for this company. >> okay. thanks for joining us. appreciate it. we should note, just crossing moments ago, twitter telling its bidders to conclude in terms of deciding whether or not they're
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going to make a bid, what the bid is, by october 27th. this, according to reuters. we do have some deadline of sorts. >> what year? >> presumably, it is october 27th of this year. although bids could come in sooner than that. >> one of the points bob makes, twitter is a depreciating asset. >> it should be tomorrow. >> and that there -- whether instagram or others are eating their lunch. i think for salesforce, the ultimate question, it comes down to valuation. this is a company the street expects to grow north of 20%, and they have to live up and meanwhile going faster now. the normalized growth at 20%. they need a pipeline that assures people. a biotech stock shrinking. we have the details. meg. >> we're looking at al my lamb pharmaceuticals, the company saying it has discontinued development of its second most advanced drug. it's for a very rare disease affecting the heart. now down about 40% on the news.
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the company saying the decision was made by the outside data monitoring committee after a trial showed an imbalance of mortality on the drug. meaning more patients in a clinical trial died than in the placebo. clearly, this causing a lot of concern among investors. they have one ahead of this. people worried what this says about the rest of the portfolio. >> meg, this is just -- i mean, i feel we've had a lot of the after hours biotech movers where a result is sort of binary and you see the stock fall off a cliff. the intracellular, one of those examples. >> yeah, we have seen a lot of this lately. the overwhelming sentiment i'm hearing from folks, this is just more bad news for biotech, and this kind of news means the reaction is going to be even stronger than perhaps it should be. talking with some people who say the company has a lot of other shots on goal and they are taking pains here in the release to say they have not seen any kinds of safety signals with the rest of their pipeline. and they are having a call right now, so i'll hop on that and bring any headlines.
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>> meg, thank you. meg tirrell. down 40%. intracellular another one. novavax. >> i'm not going to pretend i can speak intelligently about the company. i can't. what i can say, the three reasons the reasons why if you want to be in biotech, you get into a company like amgen. look at the products in market now. and look at the valuation and their balance sheet, and that's why if you want to play binary biotech, good luck. this happens. but if you want to play biotech with valuation, amgen is your play. >> and another if you are more conservative when you really look at the big-time, the big phrma names these days, they have become a biotech play as well. you look at the acquisitions over the years and it really makes sense. i know bristol-myers has traded way off of where they were. when you look at something like that, they are really just a big biotech disguised right now as a phrma company. and i think you're seeing more and more out of the lilys and
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merck. >> a surprising group of under the radar stocks soaring this year. what they are and if there is still time to get in. plus rates on the rise crushing high-yielding stocks, but there are four names surviving the bloodbath. we have the names and the trades later this hour. and new reports of a what's supposed to be replacement samsung phone. catching fire. are samsung's problems even bigger than we think? those details later on. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, nojust wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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welcome back to "fast money." get this. kohl's stocks are on an absolute tear this year and that kicks off our top trade. 170%, consol energy up 152% and natural resource 130% this year. so with cold weather approaching, will coal stocks keep heating up? grasso? >> i think these stocks obviously we all know, we have talked about them for years, oversold, a political risk. they have been oversold. i get cnx. i get consol. they have a nat gas angle. the others are just a rebound trade. if you're still around and you're coal, you're still -- it's up 13,000%, we saw.
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they all go bankrupt. and then if you're lucky enough to make it back, you'll be here for a little bit longer. >> i don't totally agree. if you think about what's going on in the natt coal prices, you've had a place where it's up 80%, supply down. power demand, dirty fuel demand for power is still something out there. still happening. names like rio tin toe and glen core also trading on the back of this. >> nat gas increasing in price too. so the competition is a little bit less. but there is going to be a lot less people working for these coal companies. they will be more efficient, but yes, i agree. there's a place for coal. >> i think coal prices at least have bottomed and i think you're seeing this through a lot of the bul bulks. you have a trade sustainable. >> are you going to buy a coal stock? >> yes. again, find a balance sheet and this is not easy to do, but find a company that actually has and generates free cash flow. that's how you make the play. you don't go all in. >> there was a time when we talked about coal stocks almost every single night.
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>> peabody energy. >> peabody, a lot of them have gone bankrupt. a lot of them just a couple million dollars market cap now. would you -- >> i owned resources. i own at a much higher price. but i'm not selling it now. >> do you remember the days when we talked about peabody being a takeover candidate. north of $100 a share. that -- you really the market cap back then, as well. so i am going to say it wrong so please correct me. but consol. >> no, you got it spot-on. >> but they have a lot of debt. that's a good thing sometimes. looks like a good thing right now. just in terms of where it's trading, a $5 stock at the beginning of the year, $20 stock now. bumping up against a down trend line from the missilitants mid of beginning 2014. if you've been long the stock for the ride, you have to take some money off the table. >> unfortunately, i'm on the other side of that one. i actually own puts in there because i've seen aggressive
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activity. consol makes the most sense to me because of the nat gas -- con-so con-sol. >> consolidated energy. >> i just slipped on that one. i like consol because of the nat gas portion of this play. >> all right. still ahead, oil settling just below 50 bucks a barrel. so are any of our traders buying energy stocks? i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." a top technician says he has found the perfect chart. but that doesn't mean you should buy it. he'll explain. plus, here's what higher rates are doing to dividend-paying stocks. but if you're looking for yield, fear not. we've got the four stocks with big dividends that can sir survive the rate route. we'll give you the names when "fast money" returns. across new, from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley,
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welcome back to "fast money." time for the move of the day. oil just short of 50 bucks, something the etf that tracks oil surging more than 2% today. too late to get in. grasso, what do you say? >> i think it's -- if you're looking at oil, 49-ish, 49.50, the resistance for me is between 50 and 55. is it too late to get in? i think you're going to have a run right into that opec meeting in november. they have staged it just perfectly. i think they pulled a yellen. they have walked on both sides of it. and i think you have a little bit more to the up side, but i think 55 is where you must exit. >> which stocks would you like? do you like? >> nothing but paper for the last two-and-a-half weeks, give or take, in energy. this huge move. it's interesting, the paper that came in just before opec news was the thursday before that. suddenly monstrous buyers out there in chevron. goes from 98 to 103 like that.
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there are names out there. i like some of the service names. some are the very best right now. we have had paper at halliburton, i'm in there. baker hughes paper, as well. neighbors, some of the drillers, both on and offshore. i think those are the places to be. >> macro oil dynamics. first of all, what the dollar does is going to be 70% of oil's move from here, i think. opec is crucial. but i think 52.75 on brent. 62, 70ish. i think saudi and iran have a deal. and if you look at the api, you have conflicting -- api, crude, you know -- reductions, which is very, very bullish and yet the declining production rate of lessening. long way of saying, u.s. production is actually -- looks like maybe it's bottomed. that's a concern. ultimately, to me, the dynamics going into that meeting are such that i think oil can trade higher. as much as we pulled forward the stabilization -- >> you were just talking about
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the importance of the dollar in the whole trade. i mean, with the environment here in which we've got the pound going to 31-year lows and the euro under pressure, and -- >> i think the dollar -- dollar is topped somewhere within 2% a year, especially if the ecb starts talking. look what the dollar did. it went through the roof. the opposite will happen. >> i'm not going to pretend i have been some oil bull, i'm not. a couple weeks ago, anadarko announced they were going to buy the assets from freeport-mcmoran. they did a secondary to pay for it. they priced it, give or take, around 55 bucks. we said, if it trades well off that secondary, the stock is going to go significantly higher. closed at 64 and change today. report on october 31st, even if oil just goes sideways from here, this stock, in my opinion, will just continue to levitate higher into earnings. >> the whole group went higher. so what are the stocks that went higher that don't deserve to trade higher on higher oil, at this point? >> the integrateds. which to me got the dividend
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play and actually were too defensive. the valuations aren't defendable at these levels. >> and also refiners. >> they have been rocketing, too. >> so if refiners -- if you believe that oil is moving higher, then that's your input cost. i would assume that the whole group is moving as a whole. and if you think that that move should be reversed or you think that move is going to continue, you sell the refiners. >> news alert from dom chu. >> so melissa, what we have here is at least an upping in the stake, walmart, the biggest retailer in the world, now reporting a stake of 10.8%, a passive stake, in jd.com, which is one of the biggest online business to consumer online retailers, whatever you want to call them. a massive sell product in china. jd.com now 10.8% owned by walmart stores. the previous disclosure for a stake held by walmart was back towards the middle end of june, where they reported a 5.9%
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stake. so a significant stake raise in jd.com by walmart. it not really -- you can see moving the shares -- now they are, jd.com by 6% in the after hours trade. still an interesting development here, as walmart is taking the strategic investments in many places around the world, guys. back over to you. >> thank you, dom chu. tim, what do you make of the news? >> smart for walmart. and i think a financial investment, make no mistake. this puts upward pressure on aliba alibaba. and a market cap, possibly more transparent than baba. a good company. but, you know, the question is, do you trust the trends and the numbers you're seeing? i think you should. and i think baba is probably still the way i would play it. >> do you think walmart is picking the right one to invest in? i think it's the only ininvestable one. they're not going to have any stake -- baba to me is a national champion company and i think jd.com is the closest to having a major competitor. a 40 billion market cap. >> it's a great target. i think that makes a lot of
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sense. and i think with tim, along with the baba, i think when you really start looking at baba and you have to look at the sum of the parts, only because i don't think cloud gets looked enough. and tim and i last night were discussing this. when you look at baba and the e-commerce portion of it, but they're not giving enough value right now. that's why i think the stock has plenty of upside. >> you think the chinese government is going to let aws into its country? >> no. >> exactly. >> we have seen everybody else struggle with that. baba will be strong. >> i would just say, they're friendly on this one. a financial investor. this is good stuff. come on in. still ahead, shocking i am j mass of what is reported to be a replacement of samsung phone catching fire. >> ooh. >> is the problem much bigger than investors think? we've got the details, next. plus, check out shares of yum brands sinking after hours. we have it after the break. much more "fast money" still ahead.
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welcome back at that "fast money." the dow up triple digits and nasdaq also higher. up about 1.5%. here's what is coming up. the stock that the chart master is calling the perfect chart. he's here to tell you what it is, and if there is still time to get in on that name. that's later. plus, how low could gold go? we'll tell you why one trader is doubling down on a bearish bet. we'll give you the details later this hour. but first, the bond breakdown continues. the three-week highs has trouble for reits. big cap stocks not only surviving the rate route, but they are thriving. what are they? here to tell us, a man who can survive anything. dom chu. hi dom. >> hi, melissa. i guess i'm a lot like a cockroach. let's hope all i have in common with insects like that. a lot of ways to look at who you want to call a survivor.
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large cap stocks that pay a high dividend, north of 3%. also 5% of the recent highs. the past 52-week highs. fairly short among s&p 500 companies. among the notables, consume e products giant, procter & gamble, the maker of tide, pampers, et cetera. 1.5% away from its 52-week high, yields 3%. then computer network equipment maker, cisco, about only 1% away from its 52-week high. it's got a dividend yield of 3.3%. same story with construction equipment maker caterpillar after being a laggard in 2015, shares up 30% this year. they hit a fresh 52-week high today. they yield almost 3.5%, and remember the days when everyone wrote ibm off, the stock couldn't catch a break. no doubt big blue and jenny rometi have a lot of work left to do. shares 14% this year, 4.5% away
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from their 52-week high. so melissa, as markets continue to handicap the odds, a future fed rate hikes and when, it could be worth looking at some of these relatively high dividend paying stocks that hold up better compared to traditional interest rate sensitive stocks like those utilities or those reits or anything else like that, guys. back over to you. >> thanks, dom. >> you're welcome, guys. okay. so let's trade this. i mean, you've been an ibm skeb particular. >> the stock bounced off the lows but it's not like given the tape we have had, it's doing that well. the stock -- if they were operating properly, should be doing better. i'm going to say it quick. cisco out of all the names the dominator mentioned, to me that's a company that actually turned things around. they were able to right the ship. valuation is reasonable, good balance sheet. above $31. >> you know, guys, i want to bring something up here. all of the large cap stocks we're talking about, there is one thing in common. they're all dow components.
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these are behemoths that still have at least a bit of life, right? ibm, yes, you can make a negative case for it. people said the same thing about procter & gamble. there has been a breakdown in some of the consumer stocks. proctor and gem gamble is holding up pretty well, right? >> shocking. dom from downtown just startled everybody. usually he's a quick in and flies out. >> it's the end of the day -- no things to do. >> i don't think it's fair, by the way. it's -- i think cisco, too. we look at the stocks. this is trading at a discount to itself. this is a place they're actually slowly remaking their business away from total switching into software and security. i like cisco. >> all right. how about -- >> oh-oh. >> high-dividend yielder that isn't close to a52-week highs yet. but you're willing to be in it because you like that dividend. >> you know, i'm not the guy who starts with the dividend. so -- >> right. >> but i think when you look at the list and it's something we talked about during brexit. cisco is the name i said you buy at brexit, because everything was getting sold off.
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it was also the pitch stock i used when we did that whole pitch -- >> but when you look at cisco, what else is there? you look at great ceos, what's happening at microsoft, another name pushing towards the highs, great fundamentals, also great balance sheet. also gives you almost 3%. you look at intel, same type of story. the companies that are doing things well, you start at the fundamental side of it, you see if they're transitioning properly. and you look at the dividend yield. when you've got those together, that becomes a great stock. >> you still own soho company? >> i don't. i don't own utilities right now. if you look at cat, dom was talking about cat tractor. you have to believe that china is going to remain better sideways to higher. it's a leading indicator on china. so if you think that china is off the headlines, people aren't worried about growth there, then you could still invest in cat tractor and infrastructure spend no matter who gets elected in november. >> all right, dom, if you're out there still, thank you. >> thanks very much, guys. always a pleasure to be with you
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guys. dom chu from headquarters. >> came from the ryder cup. >> really? >> oh! >> switching gears. earnings alert on yum brands. let's get to susan lee in the news room. >> melissa, last set earnings forum before it splits at the end of the this month. not a good quarter forum. not only did earnings and revenue miss, china sales also falling 1%, whereas the market was looking for a gain of 4.5%. so you know yum is blaming the sales drop on the negative sentiment and protests against multinationals stemming from the territorial conflicts in the south china sea. so you see the unpredictability, really reinforcing the activist calls forum. the spinoff its volatile china division to better isolate the rest. so one bright spot for yum in the quarter is taco bell. the breakfast offerings sustaining traction, plan to expand more locations. and yum also hiking dividends this month by 11%, which investors always like. and next week's investor day.
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tuesday in new york should be closely watched as the company splits off its china division on november the 1st. yum c will be the ticker symbol. >> we should note the conference call for yum takes place tomorrow so more color in terms of business tomorrow morning. what are your thoughts? >> i'm neutral on the stock. first of all, technically on the charts, 93 bucks, this is five-year highs. valuation wise, the entire space under pressure, including commercial property. yum more global, maybe not as affective. i wouldn't chase it here but the business is fine. >> i think you're going to talk about chipotle. >> why do you think that? you think you know -- no. >> really? really? >> not even close. no. >> really? >> i think he's -- he wanted to talk and now he's not going to just to be stubborn. >> say what you want to say. >> since you mentioned it, i can't. let's talk about yum real quick. i think it topped out last year, 2014 high. was about $93. and i've got to tell you
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something, miss anti western sentiment, although it dissipated the last couple months, still out there. the china comps were disappointing. double topping the stock might get you back down to 83, $84. >> still ahead, reports of a samsung phone with a replacement battery catching fire and holding up a flight in louisvil louisville. just how bad this could be for samsung, right after the break. and the chart master carter worth, says he has found perfection. that doesn't mean it's time to buy. we have the name and how to trade it, right after this. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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welcome back to "fast money." an update on a developing story involving a replacement samsung phone catching fire. let's get to deidre bosa in san francisco. deidre. >> hey, melissa. here's what we know. as you said, a samsung phone did catch on fire, causing an evacuation of a southwest airlines flight still on the ground in louisville. the owner of the phone explained to nbc news what happened. >> i shut down the phone, saw it was going through its power down cycle, placed the phone in my pocket and within a few seconds, i heard a pop similar to a ziploc bag popping open, i
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looked around and saw smoke just billowing out of my clothes and pocket. i pulled the phone out and threw it on the ground. >> but here's what's a little unclear. the phone's owner also sent us photos showing that it was a galaxy note 7, replacement. that is a replacement of the very smartphone that has been recalled because of serious fire and burn hazards. even sent us pictures of the box for the phone. showing a black square symbol that indicates a replacement note 7. arson investigators and faa confirmed it was a samsung device phone. the faa also just reiterating their airline guidance advising passengers to not use recalled phones, those samsung recalled phones during flight or store them in checked baggage. samsung, though, telling us that until, quote, we are able to retrieve the device, we cannot confirm that this incident involves the new note 7. the company says they are working with the authorities and southwest now to recover the device and will have more information once they can
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examine it. we'll bring you that as it comes. guys, if the device was, in fact, a supposedly safe replacement note 7, samsung's reputation will take another big hit. not only is it still dealing with recalling overheating original galaxy note 7s, but also facing reports their washing machines have been exploding too. back over to you, melissa. >> all right. thank you very much, dierdre bosa. samsung with a lot of huge headaches and special dividend -- >> good luck with that. you can't go over a korean chi ball -- i would say weakness in -- >> appliances, not a concern? >> this is not just an splins company. of it's a semi conductor company, very well diversified. and i think any major selloff, the company executing -- if anything, starting to become more transparent and more -- yeah, in their structure. >> samsung might ultimately be a buy. but what happened the last time or the first time we heard about these headlines, it was bullish for apple.
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apple is above that 110 mark, trading around $113. i haven't been an apple bull, but i think you're safe to buy apple. the more headlines you see negative samsung, the more bullish you become on apple. >> if i loved android and i didn't want to go samsung, i might take a look at the new google phone, pete. >> you probably would. but i still think everybody likes the whole eco system. we were talking about eco systems across different areas. apple dominates. and i think if nothing else, this pushes people that much more towards the 7. in front of the 8. because the people who don't want to wait and the people considering a samsung, this clearly is a sign that i think the pressure -- i agree with you, tim. i think the pressure on samsung is going to be great for quite a while until they can get rid of this. >> it's fine. i get that. i agree with that. and you guys are talking about the impact in the cell phone business. this is a -- conglomerate. massive free cash flow. this company is executing very well in five other divisions. and, in fact, i think you buy this weakness. you know, look at the way the stock recovered. and i think this is a hiccup
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tomorrow at best. >> >> i think we all agree. apple is not a conglomerate. >> in his back pocket. out of your clothing. >> you don't want that happening. >> in his pocket. >> on a plane. >> on the right side -- >> would you have tackled him? you would have to think about it. >> you would. >> i would be -- i would wake up, the smoke and go right after him. >> we have seen -- we have seen countless charts here on "fast money." many we have liked. one of our very own technicians found one that is perhaps too much of a good thing. we go to a man no less than perfect himself, carter worth. >> so perfection. i mean, it does exist. at moments in time. the perfect pitch, the perfect catch, the perfect peach. but it doesn't last. we know this. so i wanted to look at invidia, the best performing stock in the
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s&p year-to-date on a trailing one-year basis, two-year basis, three-year basis. it's the number one so the question is, is it too much of a good thing. couple things. really long-term chart. if you look at it in relation to its '07 high, the stock has a low of 10, and a high of 40. and what's happened here is that we've essentially broken out from this range, and we're now $30, is 10 to 40. you've made your move. it's a measured move. to some extent, met the price objective of the long-term chart. now i want to put the here and now. if you were to look at the low in february, 25. and where it is as a friday's close at 7. 175% gain. and far above trend. you can measure trend with a 200-day moving average, 150-day. but it's a bit ahead of itself. let's put this chart in the context with nothing less than amazon. so the stock itself, 277 versus 159. how about another big player.
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facebook. how about with the s&p 500. meaning let's say you think it's going to double from here. that it's taking over well. some say in every self-driving car. presumptively, even if it goes higher, the path higher passes through a lower price. it seems crowded to me. so let's look at a little bit of fundamentals. these are the numbers. these are all -- goldman sachs. deutsche bank is in here. pick your firm. credit suisse. 15 buys, 13 holds, 3 sells. what do they -- these are semi conductor experts. they go to taiwan and guess what their collective price it for the stock? $67.34. the stock is trading at $68.30 meaning even people who know the subject don't think it's going higher. so too steep, trade out, right calls, do something. >> all right. carter was quite the poet.
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appearing inindividual i can't to be -- >> i'm in search of a great peach. >> nothing magical about a peach -- a peak ripeness in the summer, sweet and juicy. good peaches. >> really -- >> real quick. inindividual i can't. at the end of the last samurai, you recall that gentleman passed away and he looked up and he saw the perfect cherry blossom. >> good segue. >> it's great -- >> so produce and agriculture. >> this jack reacher i think, i'm going to watch it. >> what's your point? >> no point. he mentioned the perfect peach. i said steve is the invidia guy. >> the market cap on the two stocks, facebook and amazon, ten times market cap. you would expect invidia to move a little differently than those. there is no argument when you see a stock chart like that, you could sell it. every sale you've made in invidia has been the wrong sale. >> this is a minute of my life i can't get back. >> next question -- >> yes.
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>> how do you trade this thing? do exactly like you did with intel, cisco, some of the names that have run to the up side. sell your stock, replacement, buy the options, volatility is cheap. gives you a chance -- if the thing goes to 70, 75, you're still in it to win it. >> in it to win it. >> tell that to randy jackson from "american idol." >> that stock is tough to justify at this point. but go with pete's and protect yourself. >> carter braxton worth, thank you. >> thanks. he's going to look for a peach now. mik mcguire kicked off his presentation in san francisco. kate kelly is on the ground there and will give us what he says is his next big idea after the break. plus, gold on a steep slide downward. and traders are betting there is more pain to come. just how low to traders think it will go? all the details, next. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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welcome back. a news alert. mik mcguire. kate kelly is in san francisco with the details. kate? >> reporter: hey, melissa. mik mcguire speaking now, buffalo wild wings. we knew about this from late in the summer, melissa. he thinks that there is some serious issues with capital allocation, the franchise model, the way management has been handling the company in recent years, and particularly the last year, 18 months. he's getting some detail about that today, though. he hasn't really publicly disclosed.
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about a month or month and a half ago, he usuissued a scathi letter to management, in the way they fumbled their market opportunity. top of his list, for them to take a 50/50 franchise and in-house store model and turn it into a 90-plus percent in-house operated store model. thinks that's better for returns and think they need to optimize their capital allocation. one flaw, the incentive compensation targets are absolute, the number of stores and other growth metrics. but they don't take into account the way in which progress is made. so a lot of interesting points there, melissa. it's a packed room, standing room only. we'll see if the stock has a reaction to it. >> you know, kate, this is interesting on the heels of the major stake in chipotle. it seems some of the arguments are almost opposite in terms of the thought that franchising for chipotle could be a way to unlock value and here mik mcguire is proposing the
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opposite. >> very much an opposite view. he thinks there could be a tremendous growth. we have about 1,200 stores now at buffalo wild wings that could go to 1,700, if they get the model right. he thinks that could be beneficial to the stock. but he says the last year or so has been a good opportunity to get in, because of some of the mismanagement. he has talked in the past about how this management team operates by gut feel, rather than traditional metrics. almost as if to suggest they need some business school degrees or some fresh talent to help them figure it out. so, yes, i would agree. it's a sort of divergent perspective. but no coincidence you've got two activist managers comfortable with restaurant, quick-service chains, because, of course, mcguire is a former mentor of bill ackman's. >> right. kate, thank you. in san francisco. buffalo wild wings, anybody see the value in that? >> i do. in the valuation, not a lot of value. i think there is a lot of pressure on the whole fast food
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industry. commercial real estate is a big deal right now. food costs going higher. of. >> gold continues to slide. let's get the options action on that. mike has the latest here. you see down side in the pits? >> yeah, four times the average daily put call, and actually what we saw were people rolling into the october 1 at puts, paying 40 cents for those. of those are bets that gld could be down another 3% in the next two weeks. >> mike co from austin, texas, with the options action full show friday at 5:30 p.m. next, "final trade." stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings.
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that will be here for you now - and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. time for "the final trade." pete najarian. >> it's breaking out. look at energy neighbors, nbr. this is going higher. dividy up. >> steveno. >> royal dutch shell. oil has to hang in there or else you get a better price. >> tim seymour. >> carter's invidia call. the stock is very top. 45 times virtual reality, yeah there is a limit. competition. there you go. >> in the after hours session, down 1.1%. >> carter. >> look, i've got to be -- i'm not a met fan. as a matter of fact, i loathe the mets. >> you loathe the mets? >> i have friends that are met fans, including tim seymour to my right. i'm wishing the mets and their fan base good luck tonight against the giants. >> very nice. >> apc!
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that will get you donning, pete. that will get you done. >> born in san francisco, giants, giddyup. >> oh! >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. "mad money," very big "mad money," from san francisco with from san francisco starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate you. so call me at 1-800-743 cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. all this week i'm coming to you from cnbc

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