we're just hours away from the september employment data that could move the market and influence the fed's rate hike decision. remember what happened to gold when we had that lousy number a few months back? gold is back down below 1300. i'm talking too much. october 7, 2016, "squawk box" starts now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." if you have fat fingers, it's okay. you should be comfortable with yourself. don't stress about it. >> full figured finger. it's not easy, a lot of ill l i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. becky quick is off today. andrew is in ohio with our

squawk the vote. >> he's where? he's where? ohio? >> columbus, ohio, my friend. >> dude. >> we're at tommy's diner right now. >> god's country. where the best people come from. >> i was born there. >> you were born there? >> dayton, ohio. >> wow. we'll talk to you in a second. first this big move in the british pound. it fell as much as 6% at one point. there seemed to be no trigger for the move. some comments out of hollande could have triggered it and then the handoff to ashea where the trade is very thin. traders suspect a wrongly entered order or fat finger. let's check european equities at this hour. they are mixed. germany, france, they're all generally flat except the ftse which is up 1% as the pound

weakens. makes them more competitive on international markets. >> i read earlier the gains in the ftse moderated as the pound rebounded. some of this totally volatile flash crash, it's like the market is -- we talked about this as i sat down. all the things happening in europe. pmi in europe for manufacturing and services significantly higher. above 50 last month. retail sales growing at 6% annual rate. industrial production strong. labor market data robust. >> everybody was going to abandon real estate there. >> but it's coming. >> just wait. >> yesterday we had someone saying if something bad is going to happen in the uk, it's going to fall off a cliff. i hope you're right. i hope your dreams come true for everything to hit the fan. if greece could do this with the

dracma. you see how important currency control is. >> they controlled their own laws. >> they did. >> in europe -- the whole idea of a common currency. germany gets the lower than -- >> they would have a much stronger currency if not for all of the weak partners. >> they would look like the -- chbl >> we are an export engine. >> right. they are selling stuff -- >> on credit. >> let's check out u.s. futures. they suggest a negative open. crude oil, talked a lot about crude oil. above 50, still there, down 30 cents this morning. wti delivery in november, 50.15. brent above 50 for a bit here. at 52.10. >> weird divergence from a

supposed stronger dollar. we'll see what happens. you saw what happened to gold t plunged below 1300. it was down to 1270 today. >> you getting ready to buy those coins? >> i could have gotten an 11 handle last time, what screwed me up is jobs friday where it was weak. of the dozen times when we thought the fed was ready, and then something got in their way, it was one of those times. a friday jobs report that was bad. it became clear that any near-term hike a couple months ago, it became clear that was off the table and gold spiked. that could happen today, but what do we have coming up? >> the jobs report. >> what do we have coming up? >> the election. >> how bad will the jobs report be? not going to be bad. impossible. whether it's murphy's law, and it's just s-- >> this is the last jobs report.

>> i say we get at 350,000 this time. >> reagan numbers. >> 450, 500 next time the gdp will be growing at 0.3%. >> we are counting down to the 8:30 a.m. jobs report. that's when we will get the september jobs report. polled forecasters expect an increase in non-farm payrolls of 170,000. the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.9%. like daring them to pose me wrong with an up 50,000. that way when they post the plus 350, i'll say see? >> i'm sure all the bureaucrats at the bureau of labor and statistics are listening closely and saying that right now. >> those guys are asleep sitting back in their chair. i don't think you can call and see if people are working right now. is that not true, michelle?

>> another michelle here. michelle girard. >> there is i forgot about that. after the jobs numbers are released, don't miss our interview with cleveland fed president loretta mester a voting member of the fomc this year. much more on the jobs reportment. >> big ohio show today. cleveland, andy. >> dayton. >> he said that. >> right now we have to get to morgan, back to the top story, hurricane matthew battering florida's atlantic coast. i have my fingers crossed. we already got the bad news out of haiti. could it not be as bad in florida and georgia? as we said, the storm already killed more than 300 people in haiti. hundreds of thousands in florida are without power. i have not seen the headlines this morning, morgan, that it was quite as bad as when i went

to bad as last night. is there hoecpe? >> in the last couple of minutes it's really picked up here. just here in this hotel on the beach, i'll tell you the lights have been flickering for the last couple minutes. outside of here, the whole strip has just gone very dark. up to about 15 minutes ago the latest numbers we had were that there were 343,000 power outages in florida from this storm thus far. according to florida power and light. in this county, volusia county, it was about 14,000. again, in just the last couple of minutes, we saw a big blue light on the horizon, probably a transformer blowing in this area. the wind here is picking up. according to the weather channel gusts of 40, 50 miles per hour. it's getting very cloud. the rain is just moving sideways

here. we've seen lightning. one big thing to watch here as this ramps up coming into daytona beach over the next couple hours is going to be this beach and the storm surge. according to some forecasts we could be getting storm surge as high as 12 feet later on today. this is, as i mentioned, ramping up. right now in terms of hurricane matthew and where it s cape canaveral and the space coast is getting the brunt of it. the eye of the storm about five miles off the coast of cape canaveral. we are seeing darkness on the strip, and this wind is picking up. we're hanging tight and staying safe. >> do that, please, morgan. we'll check back with you. let's get back to the market event of the morning, the september jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. eastern.

joining us is michelle girard. on the markets, joe zidel here to talk currencies. and boris schlossberg is also here to talk currencies. >> what is bk? >> boris kathy. very simple. >> is that your wife? >> no, my partner. >> oh, yeah. yeah. good. okay. i didn't know you guys were partners. >> i had no idea. >> everybody thinks we're married. but just partners. >> that's what i thought you meant. >> i thought your partner's name was natasha. >> no. >> i thought it was burger king. >> boris and natasha? >> right. i know, it's 6:00 in the morning. >> okay. how do we go -- >> it's horrible when you have to explain. silence, awkward. >> he's here to explain the

pound. tell us what you toll me -- >> you can start with that. we have two hurricanes in the market. matthew and the pound this morning. so the story with the pound is interesting. it all happened during the lowest liquidity time in the marketplace. if you want to move prices, it's always the asia interchange when there's very little liquidity. there were comments by france's hollande saying if britain wants to go, just go. they want to make an example out of the uk for the use of brexit. that triggered a small move in the pound. because it was low liquidity and because we had option barriers, it became a vortex. algorithms started selling everything very, very fast. we had no trading for about 30 seconds. >> so it was a bad example of the uk. so rising stock markets,

improving pmis, real estate, retail sales going up that is an example for the rest of europe. >> no. it's actually not. because what's happening now is the uk has the best of both worlds. they have a low currency and still in the union. until they trigger article 50, they can continue trading. they're getting a huge advantage. >> that hasn't happened yet. the world won't end. >> right now, as we say, it's been all rainbows and flowers because you had the nice depreciation of the pound without the pain. being in the uk last week that was something that people were aware of at least in the business community. at the moment we've seen the benefits. >> do you buy the fat finger trade? >> i was not kidding about that, after miss universe, can we call this a full figured finger trade? i'm comfortable, this is a safe place here, no micro aggression.

god forbid. just the whole world -- james madison university, you can't use that "f" word. that's the new "f" word, fat. don't use it. not even about a finger. that person can be fat overall. >> in the electronic markets, human traders forget how much magnitude and speed happens when computers are involved. we underestimate the power of the move. the bigger question is does it stick? it had a huge hit to confidence and market prices. if we stay at these prices for longer, that is much more problematic. >> when i was there for brexit. the prediction was 120. that was the final stop. we're above that still. >> the question to me about the uk economy, will uk remain the global capital market center of the world? if they can maintain the banks within uk? yes. if they don't, they'll be back to a small island nation.

it would be a complete turn from being a great empire to -- >> back to the 12th century? >> yeah. it will take 15 billion jars of strawberry jam to even out their trade deficit. the only thing they export that's of value to the world is finance. they need to maintain that. >> you've been a globalist, elitist. >> i know i am. >> you should recuse yourself from a lot of your wacky ideas. i'm sure this hurricane is man made to you. it is he's a total -- you can see the co2 swirling around. >> stop breathing. >> you're spewing -- >> i'm not like trump and won't get into the co2 debate. >> we need to plant trees right now. >> yeah. to end hurricanes in the future. >> hillary will cure hurricanes. >> when the storm surge takes miami out -- >> how is the market doing, joe?

>> we think it's doing better. it's doing okay. the jobs report will be important for the markets. because the fed will use the jobs report to cement their case for a rate hike. the difference between the fed hiking now at the end of 2016 versus a year ago is profits are actually a heck of a lot better than last year. last year when the fed hiked, as they threatened more and more hikes, it was in the context of falling corporate profits in the u.s. now we're two, three quarters into the profits inflation. so profits can offset the threat of higher rates. >> i have an obsession this week with the long end of the curve, all that stuff around the world seems to be moving regardless of what's going on in the short end of the united states. we have a global market for interest rates. when there's talk that the ecb may give up on this concept of negative interest rates, or japan will cry uncle, they'll

overengineer the whole process, ultimately higher interest rates on the long end are what matter. if you own dividend payers, if you own utilities which got hammered this week because of the whiff that maybe that might happen. >> michelle, getting back to -- you're here to talk about the jobs report. where do you think it will go? >> we're going -- >> seems so boring after what we were building up to. we have a decent number, 175. i had to laugh when you were talking about the -- >> double that. 350. >> if not this month, more likely that october number. you get that early holiday hiring. >> yeah. >> you know, sooner than the seasonals are expected. the october number could be larger. it's exactly what you say about the long end of the market, there's an idea that even if things are weak, that we're going to -- it only makes the

case for fiscal stimulus ultimately, which is what the market is starting to focus on. >> is the labor market tight or tight where you don't have engineers and qualified people? >> i think it's tight. >> with the lowest participation rate in 50 years? >> yeah. i have to say there are pockets. for example, there are people working part-time -- companies want more part-time workers than full time workers than they have in the past. structurally they're encouraged do that because of changes in regulation. >> like healthcare reform. >> yes. >> certainly the aging of the population is meeting that, you're seeing lower participation. if you look at t shg it, by mos measures you are at pre-crisis trend or full employment lefts. the fact we're seeing some pickup in wages. it is not anywhere where we think it should be. there is some evidence that the labor market is tight.

companies are having to pay more for workers. >> to your point, the most important market is the fixed income market and yields bottomed. if yields bottom, we're on a plane to go higher. >> we heard 177 the other day on the ten year. >> that's bullish dollar. >> all of your dividend payers or your less economically sensitive stocks, you know, healthcare, utilities, telecom, they would all underperform in that type of environment. this is where you want cyclical exposure. >> what is he like as a boss? is he a jerk? >> he's a good guy. >> like he'll tell you that. >> he's a good guy. laid back. >> lady, gentlemen. >> do you still have to kiss -- >> no. >> you can tell me the truth. >> much more coming up on hurricane matthew. home depot activating its disaster response command

center. we'll have an update in a few minutes. we're in columbus, ohio squawking the vote. a lot more live in just a moment when "squak" returns. every great start-up begins with a simple idea. but withroh comes complety. th's why so many invators are on the ibm cloud. like refinery 29, with nearly a biion views a year. orunkeeper, a training app edy over 50 million runners. or game developers whose populaty depends on launching new updates fast. helping to keep a coany's success uncomplicated - th's what the ibm cloud is built for.

deutsche bank is considering a spinoff of its asset management business as one of several options to boost capital. the financial times says the

company has not made a final decision and any move is unlikely before the first half of next year. john cryan told his staff last month he will no plans to sell the business saying it is and will remain an essential part of the company's business model. we continue our "squak" the vote series today. andrew is taking the political pulse from swing states across the country. today he joins us from columbus, ohio. >> we are squawking the vote, trying to do feet on the ground in real places. forget the surrogates and ceos, this is real conversation with real people. this is a battleground state. there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs, this state mattered in a big way as to who will win. here is a setup as to why this state is so important. all eyes are on the buckeye state, which is holding on to status as a bellwether for presidential elections. >> do we love ohio?

>> hello akron! >> reporter: both hillary clinton and donald trump have made numerous visits here as they stump on issues that matter most to the working class. >> fight for akron. fight for cleveland. fight for youngstown. fight for ohio and america. >> income taxes will be cut dramatically for the workers. the really hard workers. >> reporter: the economy is key to ohio. it's unemployment rate is an par with the national average and jobs are top of mind for voters here as are taxes. winning this rust belt state has always been vital to winning the white house. no republican has ever won the presidency without winning ohio and no democrat since john f. kennedy. the state has voted blue three out of the last five presidential elections. but trump is now leading, edging out clinton in the latest polls. of nearly 8 million registered voters in ohio, 1.4 million are registered democrats. 2.2 million are self-proclaimed

republicans. which way will the strait's 18 electoral votes go? it's a big issue here. the race here is tightening. it was trump's -- maybe trump's to lose and clinton has gained ground. the unemployment rate is 4.7%. just to put that on record. right now we're at tommy's diner, if you're in columbus right now, come down. check it out. we have the owner here. we do some business here. and we have a number of people here. tommy's diner two of the 2.2 million small business employees in this state. michael pappas is the owner of tommy's diner, which opened in columbus back in 1989. tanisha robinson is the founder of prince syndicate which sells and designs t-shirts and other

items based on social trends. help us understand what the heck is going on. we went out on the street yesterday, did a little man on the street interviews with a number of people. you have a lot of people coming through the diner, if you were betting, which way do you think it will go? trump is up about 1 point or 2. >> if i had to put money on it, i wouldn't. i hear both sides a lot to. i never hear people say i like this person's views or this person's views. i hate this person so i'm going this route. >> when it comes to business, what are the big economic issues that your businesses face what do you hear from the candidates that you like or don't like? >> for most small businesses, access to capital. we don't have the same luxuries of silicon valley and new york. there's a big chasm, i believe.

so if i want to open a bakery, i can go to the small business administration. if i want to take a swing at a billion dollar company, i can maybe get access to venture capital. for folks in the middle that want to build a 5, 10, $20 million company, there's not a lot of spot. that's a big gap. there's an opportunity to create more jobs and create more businesses. >> donald trump, businessman, entrepreneur, you look at him and say he's got your back or no? >> i don't think so, it remains to be seen what kind of businessman he is he hasn't said anything about the tax returns yet. the way he treats the small businesses is what i'm troubled by. >> where do you stand? >> i don't know. for our business some things we hear, my biggest concerns are

raising minimum wage, which, for here in ohio it's too low. it needs to be raised. but when you hear $15 an hour -- >> hillary clinton talked about $12. is that a fair number for you? >> 12 is fair. when you hear numbers like 15, you know, when you're cooks, cooks in our industry are the highest paid. when you see busboys and dishwashers making the same amount, their rate also go up as wel well. >> how do you measure taxes and trade? is that a big issue? >> for us to some degree. we print all of our products in the united states, we have partners. about 12% of sales are international. we want to grow that piece of the business. i think, though, small businesses get hit hardest on the tax front. it's a little bit crazy to hear about these giant corporations

that don't pay taxes. for businesses like ours, we have to pull our weight and do our share on the tax front. >> final question, this city seems like it's booming. you go on the street and people seem very upset, almost angry to some degree. what's the disconnect? is that about their own circumstance or about something else going on in the country? >> i can't -- i don't know. i see it here, being at a diner we get all walks of life. just a lot of anger. >> i think the distribution of wealth hit the top and not the middle class. part of that is the minimum wage problem. you can't survive on 7.50 an hour. and afford to live in an affordable place like columbus. there needs to be more support for people trying to build businesses and trying to make a

living. >> real quick, because we have to go. were you a kasich supporter? >> i was. >> now you're a hillary clinton supporter? trying to understand the dynamic of play. >> i can line up both. kasich has been great for jobs in ohio, and our democratic mayor has been great for jobs in colu columbus. >> it sounds like it's bad business for you to tip your hand. >> i'm undecided at the moment. >> just real quick, we do have to go. what is the one issue that would change your mind? what's the thing you're waiting for? >> i just want to be able to look at one candidate and just trust them to be honest. >> right now -- which way you leaning? >> not sure. >> very politicy. michael, thank you for having us this morning. tanisha, thank you. guys, back to you in new york. >> andrew, coming up a live report from the path of

hurricane matthew. scott cohn joins us from savannah, georgia. and home depot activating its disaster response initiatives. we'll tell you how they're helping people weather the storm. guess what guys, i switched to sprint spri? i'm hearing good things about the nwork. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of ch other. and, sint saves you 50

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we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward th brder possibilities. cmgrou how the world advances. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. a very busy morning. first we're watching hurricane

matthew, it's slamming into florida's atlantic coast. andrew is covering the presidential election in ohio. he will join us with some political pros in just a few minutes. let's start with the big flash crash in the british pound over night. dropped sharply in early trading. as much as 6% against the dollar. it has since rebounded. right now trading at 1.23. traders say the move may have been an errant or fat finger trade. as you can see, huge move. that happened in the thin overnight handover from north america to asia. the big market event coming up in the united states, the september jobs report. that's due 8:30 a.m. eastern time, just two hours from now. polled forecasters expect an increase of non-farm payrolls of 170. that's up from 151,000 in august. the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.9%. futures suggest the dow opening

lower by 29, the s&p by 5, and the nasdaq by 13. everything can change when the jobs report happens. snap inc is working on an ipo that could value the messaging service at $25 billion or more. the "wall street journal" says the offering could come as early as march. snapchat was recently valued at $18 billion after its last funding round in may. did the guy that founded this, did he have to know how to write code? is that what we should have done? did they have code at wellesley? >> they did have coding at wellesley. but not the kind they have today. they might have it now. i studied -- >> you have kids, they use this thing, i'm not sure what it does. they're messaging. 25 billion. you start this as an entrepreneur, write some code, do this snapchat, you're worth $25 billion? >> it's a great country.

>> i have to look at that. i should not look at it in a negative way. >> where else could you invent something that so many people want. remember? >> should have been -- i didn't know i needed to learn code. >> right. >> i think it came after the '70s. >> after pascal. >> not a person, the language. >> it's not hard, just tedious. >> yeah. technical. mm-hmm. >> talking for a living is much easier. this is fun. this is in the family. the largest u.s. recreational vehicle dealer, camping world holdings raising $251 million in initial public offering. the stock price at 11.4 million shares at $22 a piece. that was the mid point of the indicated range. the stock will trade on the new york stock exchange starting today under the ticker symbol cwh, why do we say it's in the

family? because it's co-owned by marcus lemodis. he will be on "power lunch" as a guest host today from 1:00 to 3:00. >> that, i could -- >> campers. they're real. that's real. >> right. >> snapchat -- >> snapchat 25 billion. >> that will be good. >> the atlantic coast of florida is getting slammed by hurricane matthew. nearly 2 million people were urged to evacuate. more than 100,000 so far have lost power. savannah, georgia is in the path of the hurricane. scott cohn joins us from there now with an update. they got a lot of great coastal attractions and stuff, scott. you're probably down there. >> absolutely, joe.

hilton head island not far from here. of course savannah, you know, now fairly stiff breeze here coming and going. we will long for this few short hours from now as matthew makes its way up the coast to here. the other big concern here in savannah is the part ort of savannah, the largest single container terminal in america they both. 40% of poultry exports go through there. that port now is closed through sunday. the fact that the storm has been hugging the coast and not made landfall in florida, staying off-shore is potentially good news as it works its way up here and has them hoping maybe they dodged the worst of this. nobody is letting their guard down. governor nathan deal of georgia talking about mandatory

evacuations in six coastal counties. >> i have not been one that has overreacted, we want to imply to everyone it's serious and we stand ready to help. but people have to help themselves first. >> people are doing that. there's been a lot of traffic people doing those evacuations. essentially everything east of 95, six counties including here in savannah where we are. the big concern, even if the storm stays to the east as it is now looking, is rain. we're talking about 12, 14, 15 inches of rain possible here. that could mean flooding. a whole host of problems. again, with the storm several hours to the south of us, no one is letting their guard down yet. we're getting ready to hunker down. >> you did say some positives -- nobody wants all that water, but if does stay out there that would be good. scott, if you could -- you have a car? >> we have cars among our team

here. yeah. >> about an hour south of where you are, sea island. could you just head down there and check it out, make sure everything is okay for me? and look at it? it's very important. beautiful place. and i -- i may have a little bit of property there. nothing built on it, but i don't want -- it would be good, if while you're there, you could do that for me. maybe not. you ought to stay where you are, be safe. >> for you, joe, anything. we'll do it during the height of the storm. for you. >> fantastic. >> fine, scott. just thought i would mention it. they -- they just randomly pick savannah. you could have picked sea island. fine, don't go down there. >> the hope is if it stays off to the east, the big concern, which is a big deal in sea island is storm surge, if it were more inland. if it stays out there you won't get the storm surge, but you'll

get a heck of a lot of rain. >> i'm seriously worried about it most of the properties that are down there, it's a small island, it's right on the atlantic. very concerning with water or wind. we hope everything turns out better than we were worried about yesterday. >> thank you. home depot has activated its disaster response center at its georgia hub and more than 300 employees will be loading trucks and stocking local stores along the east coast in preparation for hurricane matthew. joining us with more on the store's efforts, home depot's southern division president, tim hourigan. thank you for joining us. what is the level of preparation? i assume it's frenetic because the storm was predicted to be very, very big and very, very costly. >> yes, michelle, thanks for having us on. it was pretty frenetic. as we got our command center opened earlier this week, we

have about 150 people in the command center ranging from i.t. professionals, logistics professionals, transtakportatio folks, but the real heroes are the guys in the stores. we strive to be the last store to be open and the first store to open in the morning as soon as it's safe to do so. so those folks are doing the real job. >> you have been through so many storms, we talk to you nearly every storm when these hatch. the size of it and the number of states, it's still possibly going to hit. give us a sense of the level of preparation for this storm versus others we've seen in the past. >> well, i would say this is similar to what we had with superstorm sandy, and with irene in the past. as you looked at it, we moved more than 1,000 loads of product into the markets.

we have about 120 or so of our stores in the path of the storm address it was coming through the atlantic. mend dou tremendous amount of up-front teams, and back at the command center working with vendors to get the appropriate products into the markets for the communities we serve. >> what is the best selling product when you have a storm? >> i would say two, generators and plywood. portabilile power tools. those are the three biggest categories. >> stay safe. appreciate the efforts to open as soon as possible after the storm, tim. thank you very much. >> thanks for having us on. coming up, much more on hurricane matthew and the jobs report is today. also a big move in the british pound. first andrew is squawking the vote in columbus, ohio what do you have coming up? >> joe, we have two local journalists who will help us break down the big issues in

ohio. also give us a bit of a better read on what the polls are trying to tell us. looks like trump is up, but only marginally. we'll see whether they agree that it's going in that direction. we'll bring you that in just a moment.

welcome back. we are here in columbus, ohio talking about the presidential election and i'm joined by two local journalists who share their views on what ohio voters care about the most. darrell roland is from the columbus dispatch, and jackie is a columbus reporter. it looks like the race has tightened over the past couple of weeks. trump seemed to be up in most polls. hillary clinton seems to have gained. trump is still up, but do you directionally have any better sense of where this is going? >> i think it's turned around in ohio. i think hillary clinton has the lead. our first post-debate poll was trump ahead by five. then the next day it showed secretary clinton up by two points. i talked to people inside the

republican party, they're seeing more the latter poll happening right now. these are just snapshots. >> what do you think changed? >> you had the debate. and the previous round of polling was done after hillary clinton had her bout of pneumonia. she was absent from the state for about 29 days. >> she was here on monday. >> she was in akron on monday. but that's the first time she was in the state in almost a month. she sent surrogates, but surrogates are not the candidate. trump has been here, mike pence has been here. ohio is used to being the media darling every four years and treated to these politicians coming in. that didn't happen for several weeks. >> so the state wasn't getting the love, if you will. let me ask you a different question, when it comings to the ground game, one thing we're always trying to understand is what's going on on the ground in terms of what does the clinton camp have going on, what does the trump camp has going on getting people to the polls in

november? >> the clinton campaign is running a robust field operation office similar to 2012 and 2008. trump has fewer staffers, his field operation is much smaller. to see the result of that, we'll see on election day. i think clinton, you're seeing her push now to get out the vote. in ohio, we have a month of early voting. that starts next week. for her, turnout is key. when ohio has larger turnout it will be in her favor. >> how much of is it the cities versus the rural areas? >> there's certainly some of that that's one thing where secretary clinton has a bit of a challenge, especially with african-american voters. they turned out in large numbers for president obama making history in 2008, re-electing him in 2012. nobody is expecting her to attain that level, but there can

be a big falloff. that's why you're seeing president obama coming to ohio next week. he will be here in columbus, up in cleveland. it is a big get to the polls. on the other hand what trump has done, his organization, one of the untold stories. coming out of the convention in ohio, in july, the party was divided. governor kasich was not supporting mr. trump. he still isn't. but they have been able to get the county parties on board, those are the ground troops. you talk about a ground game in ohio especially republican parties, county republican organizations, almost all of those have come around now. there's been a lot of missionary work behind the scenes. >> when it comes to economic issues which is something we talk about every day, is there a single issue that matters most to this state? today is jobs friday. this state is at 4.7% unemployment which is a bit below the national average at this point. >> though the unemployment rate has improved, jobs are still a

big issue for a lot of people in ohio. and trade has emerged as an issue in this campaign, interestingly enough. ohio has seen the impacts of past trade agreements, where trump is that issue here. in eastern ohio, southeastern ohio with blue collar workers that, you know, traditionally had voted democratic but now are saying, well, you know, what have the democrats done for me? i still don't have a job. my friends don't have jobs. i'm going to give trump a try. >> thank you, guys, for joining us this morning. it's great to try to understand what's going on on the ground. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> got it. thank you. coming up, a checkup on twitter. the stock got crushed yesterday. we'll tell you how it's trading this morning and which rumored bidders may still be in the game. here's a quick check on what's happening in the european markets right now. germany is lower by 72 points. ftse is off of its highs but still in positive territory as a

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welcome back to "squawk box." an update now on shares of twitter. the stock closing down 20% yesterday after rico reported google, disney, and apple are unlikely to make bids for this struggling social media company.

sun trust robert peck floating possible bidders such as verizon, at&t, microsoft, comcast. there's always private equity, too, that could get in there. trading now 20 bucks on the nose. colombian president juan manuel santos has won the 2016 nobel peace prize. it was a surprise win since his peace agreement with the rebels was voted down by colombians on sunday. the deal would have ended more than 50 years of civil war. the prize will be awarded in december. i interviewed him about two weeks ago, joe, before the vote. maybe three. and it's not -- this is going to pass. he thought they had this done. >> 66-33. and the nobel prize, the nomination and everything else, this could have been in the works for awhile. maybe he was passed over in previous years. just because it didn't pass -- >> doesn't mean he didn't try.

>> doesn't mean he didn't try and doesn't deserve it. but it's ironic it was probably already set that he was going to be awarded it before the vote went the other way. we have not -- it'd be better if the peace had been -- if it had gone through and peace had been achieved rather than getting it -- >> considering the way they've awarded this in the past, they would have given it to him. >> i would have been more cynical about the political motivations that the peace prize committee has. seven years ago president obama has it. >> for the things he was going to do? >> that was very telling at the time of how these -- politics does play into them. and just the sort of elitist globalist view of everything. coming up, hurricane matthew battering florida this morning leaving hundreds of thousands without power. we'll bring you a live update from the path of the storm. that's next. guess what guys, i switched to sprint.

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three major stories developing this morning. we have all of them covered for you. first, hurricane matthew churning up the florida coast at this hour. live reports and the latest on the storm's path is straight ahead. and it's jobs friday. the numbers expected to give investors an idea on whether or not a rate hike could be in store this year. we preview the numbers plus the pound getting pounded. sterling briefly hitting a 31-year low. the latest on what has caused the dramatic move in just minutes from now. >> we are in the buckeye state right here in columbus squawking the vote trying to figure out

which way the state is going to swing. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen with michelle caruso-cabrera. andrew ross sorkin is in ohio. but i really feel like these other stories, steve leisman is here to finally hype the jobs report which -- anyway -- >> you didn't give it its correct place in the news cycle. >> any other jobs friday, we'd be -- but we got the pound and the hurricane even more importantly. but you're looking at a live shot -- actually you're looking at a live shot of me. but now there it is. there is going to be a live shot of lauderdale by the sea, florida.

and hurricane matthew hitting the east coast hard. not as hard as we thought. >> but not there. because it's very nice there. >> but you are looking at a live shot of that. it's now just a category 3. i shouldn't say now just, but it's down from a 4. it's heading towards south carolina. we'll have live updates and any new information that we get throughout the program. and then what i was just talking about, we had the pound and the crash. it's due out in less than 90 minutes. about what the fed is going to do. and first snapshot of how the economy is. then the pound hitting a 31-year low in a matter of minutes before recovering. some saying it was a flash crash of sorts.

taxes up to 70% in france. we will have more on this in just a minute. before we talk jobs and the economy and the pound, let's get to the big national story of the morning. hurricane matthew hitting the east coast of florida. morgan brennan is on daytona beach. the height of the storm is hitting there now. morgan. >> reporter: hey. this is picking up in intensity. we're in early innings. it's going to get more intense as the morning and afternoon go on here. this afternoon we've got rain that is just blowing sideways. the wind is kicking up. according to the weather channel. just to put this in perspective, the rain is pushing the rain sideways so hard into the corner of this hotel room that the rain is coming through the scenes and soaking the carpet.

so overall as this is going on, we're expecting wind gusts to climb to 88 miles per hour and storm surge which could wreak the most damage here as high as 12 feet. now, right now this hurricane is making its way rather slowly up the florida coast. cape canaveral is getting the biggest impact right now with 100 mile-an-hour wind gusts reported just a short while ago. even though this storm actually weakened overnight, it's still a category 3. it's still very serious. and the national hurricane center is warning that we could see, quote, devastating impacts along a long portion of the florida coast with this storm. so there's more than 350,000 power outages currently reported for the state of florida. and we're seeing the effects that here on the beach in daytona. we've seen lights flickering on and off including at this hotel. i should note we're staying at this hotel with some of the power company workers who are on

standby to get ready to work as soon as this storm passes through. right now daytona beach has a mandatory curfew in place until 7:00 a.m. on saturday morning. >> okay, morgan. thanks. we will check back with you later. let's find out how new smyrna beach, florida, is coping with the storm. this town south of daytona beach. joining us on the "squawk" newsline is mayor jim hathaway. mayor, thanks for joining us. still can't put this thing to bed yet, but is there any relief at all in what you've seen so far? the worst case scenario hasn't come to pass, has it? >> no, it hasn't and we're grateful that the storm has dropped down to a cat 3. because we were concerned being a cat 4 possibly cat 5, we are a coastal economy. we rely on our beach. right now i'm proud of all of our first responders who got

those citizens off the beach. we evacuated yesterday starting at 6:00 p.m. people were around with loud speake speakers and a top priority. i don't want to speculate on what may happen after this storm ends. we'll be working together with our police coast guard and city employees. we are monitoring the situation as we are bracing for the remainder of the storm. >> so it's always premature to try to assess danl at this point. but have you got any anecdotally about the hardest hit areas and what's happening there? >> obviously we can't put any of our people out until the weather dies down. we won't put anybody down on the streets until the winds are lower. their safety is our concern as well. >> all right. but anything -- but at this

point you can't give us any assessment that you've come through it pretty well or not pretty well at this point? >> at this time, again, it's a little premature to make any assessments. we will once the storm moves on and would be happy to give you another update at that time. >> got it. thanks for your time. appreciate it and good luck. >> you bet. thank you. the british pound under pressure this morning. take a look at where it is right now. it fell as much as 6% in early trading. i'm rereading this copy to make sure i see this. it went to a buck 13 at one point according to reuters. right now it's at a buck 23 down from a buck 26. steve sedgwick joins us now from the bank of england in london with this crazy move that happened overnight. steve? >> reporter: yeah. quite extraordinary. i'd like to put something here for everybody. there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever it was a fat finger trade. it was the first thing i heard when i came in that there had

been an erroneous trade. no evidence whatsoever. it could well have been, but i think there's a host of other factors going on here. one, the politics. the politics are looking bad for the uk at the moment. teresa may on monday said we're going to enact article 50 start brex its in the spring. a lot of people never thought it would happen. that's when the pound started falling. then last night says there has to be risk, has to be a prize for the british leaving. a really hard brexit scenario. that sent the pound lower as well. looking on shaky ground at the moment. when it falls, we're supposed to get better exports. they were pathetic in the most recent bit of day pa. if anything, the deficit with the eu widened. then there's the positioning in the market. everyone and their mom has got a short on the pound at the moment whether it's on cable or versus the euro as well. there's a lot of positioning

going down to 120. both think it's going to get there by the end of the year. thinks it goes to 1.10 by the end of next year as well. then and this is really important, the structure of the market. anyone remember the volcker rule? yeah, it means the banks can't make profit from their trading. that means when we get a big move, there's no liquidity. i'm not convinced this was an accidental trade overnight. it may have been but there are other factors sending the pound down. >> i agree with you on that, steve. absolutely. especially when you talk about how thin the trade is at that hour. steve sedgwick for us. other major story impacting the market today, the jobs report due out at 8:30 eastern time. steve leisman joins us with that. >> the second most jobs report politically because there's one more before the election. but the most important jobs report before the fed because it's the last before the november meeting. we'll be talking about the potential impact of this storm on the jobs data next month. let's see what we're looking for

this month. nonfarm payrolls up to 170. unemployment unchanged. that's a big deal. hourly wages up 0.2%. let's look at how the fed is going to view this number. the new issue is why the u.s. economy has steadily added jobs at a rate that most fed officials think is greater than the age of the working age population. but the unemployment has not fallen since october 2015. 2 million jobs added but the unemployment rate barely rose. fed chair janet yellen says there is room to run to bring people off the sidelines without sparking wage inflation. north of 3%. a sign the labor market is

tightening. would also point out it's way better than 10% which is what it was when the fed went to zero. so we -- no reason for emergency rates. but many on the street, they think whatever the number, the fed isn't going to raise interest rates six days before the election. >> what was the alan krueger/janet yellen debate? >> you nailed it. >> but that's what she said. >> she's counter krueger. krueger said these people are gone they're not coming back. we've had an influx of 2 million people into the workforce and that's why it's leveled off. >> you heard my numbers. >> 350. >> couple of back-to-back 400s. >> i told them in the back i was not going to respond to the claims the numbers were political. i'm not going to respond at all. >> when did i say that? i'm not saying that. >> oh, you're not saying that? just 350 randomly. >> i said 400 now. a couple of back-to-back 400s. because things were building up.

>> right. because -- >> the income -- >> i'm not saying that. >> i was also told in the back i'm not going to say there's no evidence that the numbers were ever political. and the unemployment rate could call to 4.5%. >> 3.5% today. >> it's going to climb to 67. people will suddenly go back to work. i told them i wasn't going to respond to the claims that any of the numbers were -- you're not claiming it. no, you're not claiming it. >> i'm daring them to do it it. >> because they want to move on to the next story. so i said i wasn't going to respond. >> okay. all right. >> thank you, steve. >> i think we should stay on this. >> steve's coming up with -- >> this is a big number. right. >> obviously the hurricane is the biggest thing. >> market gets a lot of its sense of the economy from this number for better or worse. i think it overestimates it and then that -- >> overvalues it for sure.

mester coming up. >> after the numbers. >> we'll get her take. >> she's on the fed. >> she speaks for herself. joe is being technically correct. that's good stuff. coming up, a preview of this weekend's showdown of hillary clinton and donald trump. andrew will join us from the key battleground state of ohio. we'll hear from him a the break. a look at daytona beach florida now. the storm passing through there at this hour. we'll have the latest in just a bit. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. time to squawk the vote. i am here in columbus, ohio, this morning. joining us now to talk about ohio's economy, jobs, and of course 2016 politics, let's bring in congressman joyce beatty who represents the third district including columbus. she is a surrogate for hillary clinton's campaign. and matt borges is here. rhymes with gorgeous. chair of the republican party of ohio. >> looks like it too. >> and we appreciate both of you being here this morning. as we talk about what is a very tight race in this state and has gotten tighter over the past couple weeks. it's gotten tighter in your own home, though, i want to start the conversation -- >> that's not true. my wife is not a hillary supporter. >> though apparently i'm told -- >> there's no sign in the yard.

>> won't let you put up a trump sign. >> look, we live in a very blue community. we're in congresswoman beatty's district. i need to be careful this morning. we're good friends so nothing to worry about there. but not a lot of trump signs on our street. >> and your wife was a big kasich supporter. that's what this is about. in terms of the sign. >> yes. she's known kasich longer than i've known her. he carried ohio in the primary and we were proud of the work that he did and proud of the fact he's still our governor. >> what is going on in this state? when i say what's going on in this state, you go to your district, columbus, and it is booming. >> yes. >> and is a function of that perhaps it is a very democratic town. however, you get more rural and it becomes his state. how do you think about that distinction? >> well, i think what you're seeing in the entire state but if we talk about central ohio, we've been very successful with jobs, the economy.

when you look at the unemployment rate, we've lowered it. it matches what's happened under president obama nationally. when you think of the jobs that had been lost in the united states, it has to affect the state. ohio is the seventh largest state in the nation. but what's really nice now thanks to private sector jobs in the united states, we've increased them under president obama in the last 78 months. we're feeling that effect here. but we have work to do so in some of the rural areas. >> you take the opposite side of this. >> well, the only thing i would disagree with my congresswoman on is a lot of that, of course most of that credit for the job growth in ohio goes to governor kasich and the republicans in the legislature that have done a lot of work to turn around the economy they inherited from ted strickland when he was governor. now he's running for the united states senate. >> you had a mayor for 16 years, michael coleman who did more for central ohio and part of ohio.

you now have andy ginter who has come in and now he's talking about the community, the small cities. he's talking about having cooperation with areas outside of the city just where we are today. right here in this diner is a prime example of how we're bringing people together to talk about jobs, to talk about the infrastructure, and to talk about education. >> what is it -- donald trump's spent a lot of time in this state recently. hillary clinton was just here last week. i know she's coming back. what is it that you believe donald trump will do for this state? >> well, i think, obviously, we need to focus on continuing to build this economy, bring jobs back. there have been parts of the state that have been devastated. so where companies and factories have closed and people are feeling the pain. look, we have coal jobs in this state the democrats have a war on coal. the democrats want to get rid of those jobs. we've had a fracking boom in eastern ohio that's brought a

lot of jobs and hope back to communities that really hadn't had it at all for a time. now there's opportunity there. and excessive regulation, higher taxes, the things that got us in the problems in the first place are not the solutions. that's what the democrats are proposing. and so republican solutions like what governor kasich and the legislature have done here in ohio, lowering taxes, balancing budgets, that's what's helped lift this economy and get people back to work in this state. >> what do you do about the manufacturing in this state and the reason i ask is this city has done so well. this has become a services city. right? >> well, it's education, it's service. but let me just say this. you don't get to have it both ways. you can't say what's happening in this community and this state and tout the governor. the governor is still the governor. so if it's failing, you can't blame that on the democrats. the republicans hold the house. the republicans hold the governor's mansion. so i think what we both would agree on, we need to move forward. and hillary clinton has a plan.

when you talk about infrastructure, she understands. if you need to get to work, she's putting $485 billion into infrastructure. she understands that we have to do something about college tuition. so she's wrapped her arms around something that's realistic. if you have a family making less than $125,000, they're going to make college tuition affordable. she's talking about jobs and the economy. she has a real tax plan. unlike donald trump who his own republican colleagues just released a few hours ago 30 members of congress are not going to endorse him. major businesses are now saying i said he was temperamentally unfit. they're saying he's manifestedly unfit to be president because he doesn't have the basic skill sets you need. intelligence, empathy. >> okay. respond to that. i know you were not always -- you at one point said i'm not a trumpkin. >> or take this and can we get

this over with. >> you must have a view. explain to viewers. >> defend him. i want to hear this. >> obviously it's different from what the congresswoman has been talking about. because it is republican policies. it is lower taxes. it is less regulation. it is balanced budgets. that have worked in ohio. we've seen that work here. so one of the reasons that ohioans don't respond to hillary clinton's message which is that republicans are deplorable, republicans are racist, republicans are horrible people. >> i think she said put them in a basket not that they were. >> people have seen republican leadership work and they don't believe that about republicans. which is why i think her message isn't geared toward ohio. she may be giving up on ohio. >> not true. she'll be here monday, just for the record. >> to build a lead here, maintain a lead here. >> let me ask this. i know that you're a kasich supporter. i know you're a rob portman supporter. speak to the temperament because theirs is different from donald

trump. >> kasich hasn't even endorsed him yet and if he's going to say -- and i understand his point, but i need to hear him defend it. kasich is no longer running. so it's not about kasich. it's about this nation. it's about donald trump who has offended women, who has made a mockery out of reporters who have disabilities. i have no problem defending my surrogate. i want to hear him defend these deplorable things that donald trump is saying. the things we've seen a split screen on that even his vice president said the other day not true and then we heard it in trump's own words that these things are true. >> i don't think we want to get into the vice presidential debate because that was when -- >> oh, i would love that. >> pence did much better than kaine. kaine came across as a tasmanian issue. >> talked to the issues. he answered the question of a vice president's role -- >> we have 20 seconds left. to the extent there's still undecideds, what's going to change the next couple of weeks

here? >> i think that it's going to change because people understand they want somebody who's intelligent, somebody that's a leader, somebody that understands people. and ki tell you that's hillary clinton. >> if you're looking for change, if you're looking at the ultimate beltway insider in hillary clinton, she can't bring change to washington or the election. >> vote for hillary. thank you. >> we appreciate your time this morning. guys, debate continues. back to you. >> i think i see why she likes tim kaine so much, the congresswoman. coming up -- they got a lot in common. >> could barely hear the other guy. >> lots to talk about coming up. "squawk box" will be right back. . aflac! isn't major medical enough?

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among the stories front and center today, we're about an hour away from e the september jobs report. economists are looking for 170,000 new non-farm jobs. the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.9%. shares of honeywell are falling. the maker of aircraft parts, climate control systems, and many other things cut sales projections saying that those metrics would fall 3% for its third quarter. honeywell had previously said that sales would be flat to up 1%. big loss in that. not a dow component, but certainly a bellwether. verizon is offering data plans for drones. verizon's plan to connect drones to the network would start at $25 a month of one gigabyte of data. then the company says there are many possibilities for internet connected drones. they have a new spokesperson. you know, the verizon guy, the

funny looking guy -- not funny looking but distinctive is now doing sprint stuff. he said we now have jamie fox. they now have all these jamie foxx ads. i don't know if verizon supported this. jamie was just in venezuela meeting with muduro saying he's totally behind the socialist revolution. so i don't know if verizon had that all in the -- i didn't know they were factoring that in. still cashing those verizon checks though. >> i'm sure he's donating all of it to -- >> i just thought that was weird. >> why do you rile me up? >> i don't know if he saw anyone rummaging through the box -- middle class people trying to get pizza crust to sur sprooif to the next day. socialism. big event for the capitalist in our family. the largest recreational vehicle dealer camping world holdings

raising in an initial public offering. the stock priced 11 million shares at $22 a piece. that was the mid-point of its indicated range. it will trade under tick ter cwh. company is headed by mark la mow this. he's the star of "the profit." lamonis owns with crest view partners. you can watch "the profit" on tuesday. one of our big hit shows. congratulations, marcus will be on "power lunch" today 1:00 to 3:00. another coastal city expected to be engulfed in hurricane matthew is savannah, georgia, where we talked to our own senior correspondent scott cohn this morning. we're going back to scott now. what's happening? doesn't look too bad there right now. >> reporter: well, it's not bad yet, joe. the winds have been picking up. we're getting a few spits of

rain here. but the tomorrow is still a good solid hundred miles to the south of us. and as we reported before, hurricane matthew is staying off shore more so than some of the forecasts yesterday suggested. that is good for everyone up the florida coast. and here in savannah as well. if it stays off shore. but we are far from out of the woods. wier still under a hurricane warning here. by this afternoon i could be standing in 75 mile-an-hour winds. they're still talking about storm surges of seven feet. and as much as 15 inches of rain in parts of georgia here. so it is a big deal and people are not taking any chances. they have been getting out of town, finding other places to go. there are mandatory evacuation ordered in effect for six southeast georgia counties. everything basically east of interstate 95. and it's not just people. they're evacuating fighter jets as well.

the 23rd fighter group out of moonys air force base which is far inland, they were evacuated a-10s over to florida just to make sure they get them out of harm's way. roughly about half a million people in this part of the state are seeking higher ground because we're going to see some big, heavy rains here. we're also looking at the port behind me. major container port on the east coast which is shut down at least until sunday. guys? >> all right, scott. we will check back. so you're positioned there -- you'll be there all day, i guess. when is it? what's the eta for the main part of the hit for you? >> reporter: it's looking like it's going to start getting bad this afternoon and by this evening they are going to be totally hunkered down here this evening into tomorrow is going to be rough here in savannah if the forecasts hold. >> okay. all right, great. thank you, scott. now let's turn to the markets and the economy. we're less than an hour away from the release of the september jobs report.

joining us with more is tom lee of fundstrat. 10-year looks like yields are backing up a bit. >> yeah. >> that could have changed today, i guess, depending on what kind of number we get. what are you expecting? what would surprise you and what are you expecting? >> you know, i think it's difficult to forecast jobs. so i -- you know, if i was to guess i think it's going to be a little stronger than expected given claims and with the isms. >> the election. >> some election padding. >> yeah. you get in trouble for even saying that. i just kid around. i never say it. could be serendipitous, but a 50 this time? hard to believe. you know what? if it is strong, that really does mean december will happen and the markets probably won't like that. they never do. >> yeah. that's the problem. it's one of these, you know, too good of news is probably not

good news for equities. it's probably good news for the economy. you know, maybe the 12-month picture. >> you watch gold this week? >> i did. >> those were big moves. it's the same -- it's a reverse of the moves we saw with the bad number. where people said they're not going to do anything. then rallied up around 1400. now it could go under 1200 if this was a really strong number today. >> it could. i mean, i think we've seen it already in the past couple weeks. i think investors are sort of bracing for a more interest rate world away from dividend payers towards cyclical stocks. >> you haven't been a big guy on global. using global markets to figure out domestic u.s. stocks. it's not always been your biggest thing. but for me, the rest of the world still headed in the easing mode. and it's -- are we really going to divert from that? or will they make sure we don't do that? >> you know, i think that's the

fed in a tight spot. ultimately you just don't want the fed to be tightening faster than the market's comfortable with. so i think if today's report is good enough and we all start getting a lot more comfortable with december, i don't think it means stock market doesn't go up. but if we have something too strong and we think november, i think it is a head wind. >> what do you think about this 10-year at one point? what are we doing this morning on the 10-year? can we bring it up? now we're at the high end of the range. >> yeah, i mean, it's -- it's kind of -- >> 1.74%. >> i think we should take more comfort it's at 1.7% than at 1.0%. >> if this starts to move appreciably, we had a guest on this morning that said -- did i get it wrong? >> seidel. >> seidel. i got it wrong. when you see that move, you've got to think what's been

working. we've seen people start to abandon utilities in just a week. >> i think it's kind of been wise to do that. you know, those got expensive. you know, it doesn't really make sense to pay 20 times for utility stock when you could buy cisco at 12. >> but you're getting paid a lot in utilities. >> interesting, yeah. but tech stocks today have 3%, 4% dividend yields. >> if you had a three month rise, would you be telling people to buy right now? >> i think buying dips still makes a lot of sense. >> you're predicting a dip. >> well, if there's a dip, right? >> my point, you know, near term when we do come to -- we still think the fed's going to wimp out every time they say they're definitely going to do something. december they may really do. because as we said, it's going to be hard to post a bad jobs number with an election. so the job number's going to be good which will allow them the cover to raise. >> that's right. if the economy strengthens enough, i think everyone's going to be in agreement that you want

to -- you know, you do want to -- you give the fed the green light. it's not like we can hold off forever. >> give them the green light to tighten and the markets as they are near term don't see that -- they should see it as a positive but they don't. they don't like it. they want their free money. >> it's not necessarily bad. stocks are cheaper than bonds right now. >> oh, yeah. thanks, tom. >> yeah. thank you. coming up, what millennials want to hear from the presidential candidates in sunday night's debates. futures at this hour are now lower. down 13 or so before this big number. my business was built th passion... but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark sh cardrom pil one. withtht, earn unlimited 2% cash bacon that's why i have the spark sh cardrom pil one. all of my purchasing. and that uimited 2cash back fr sparkeans ousands of drs each year going back into my business...

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what'sthe value of capital is teate,ods? not just wealth, but things that matter. morgantanley sun is up in daytona beach now. it's tough to see though. in just a few hours they're going to be assessing the damage as hurricane matthew continues to churn up the coast. brushing up against cape canaveral a couple hours ago this morning. that's an hour and a half south of daytona beach you're seeing on the screen. so florida now, you're seeing the impact. we'll give you an update in minutes. let's get back to andrew, though, who is in ohio this

morning with some special guests. andrew? >> hey, michelle. we are squawking the vote and this morning millennials are now just a large of the political force as baby boomers. both generations making up to 31% of the electorate. no surprise they're courting younger voters. but both campaigns have struggled thus far. here to debate which candidate is better on the issues that matter most to millennials, two students are here. we got to get ed out of here on time because he has an exam later, everybody. it's an exam or just a pop request iz? >> a jazz quiz. >> tell your professor. >> so mr. mills, if you want to let me slide on that one, that'd be awesome. >> what do you think millennials in terms of single biggest issue for both of you when it comes to

this presidential election would be? >> i think that student debt is really important for people our age. it's something we're really concerned about for after graduating and something that we want to see politicians talk about as well. >> ed? >> i'm more focused on foreign policy and national security. i just think -- i don't know i feel safer abroad than i did eight years ago. you know, i'm going into the marine corps and it's just, you know, eventually the next president is going to be my boss. i want to know who's going to do a better job. >> right now it sounds like you're planning to vote for donald trump. >> yes, sir. >> he'd be your commander in chief. >> yes, sir. >> your boss. >> yes, sir. >> what do you like about him? >> i like he's not a career politician. he hasn't lived in the beltway for the last 30 years and i think he brings a fresh perspective. i also think he has a strong leadership presence as well. >> right. i assume you're voting for hillary clinton. >> yes, i am. >> because? >> i believe she's the most

experienced candidate in the race. and i think that she has the right stance on a lot of social issues that are really important for our generation. and she would definitely be the most qualified president. >> where do you come out on economic issues? you were in investor club in fifth grade so you care about this stuff. >> yes, sir. i think trump has a better tax plan. trickle down works in some cases. i think he has a better part for the middle class. i think helping cut down the government is what we need. . >> why are you convinced that hillary clinton is the better candidate on econ? >> i think her tax plan is a lot better. it loses the loopholes for the top 1% and the rich. and it allows the middle class to grow more. and it -- she will produce more

jobs in the country and she's aiming to help the middle class. >> why do you think that for the most part donald trump has struggled with younger people? if you look at just the demos on who he has appealed to most? >> well, i think it's very much a split. i think there actually is a big movement. you look at sites like old row. i think -- he's mobilized more young voters than i think mitt romney has four years ago. so i don't think he's doing as bad as you might think. but it's almost hard to support trump. a as soon as you do, people come out calling you racist why would you do that. and i don't know. i don't know if the candidates are polarized or if the election is getting polarized. for every one article about policy you have four accusing candidates of some scandal. >> how hard is it for you in an environment, in a university environment typically which has become more and more liberal to actually have your view and

speak out. you guys were saying you have parties together and watch the debates together? what's that like? >> our clubs watch the debates together. and i think it's great to come together and try to be as bipartisan as possible and talk about the real issues at hand. >> i would have to agree. i think denison is unique in that we are a close enough community we could get away with doing that. recently i was at the university of south carolina and it's way more polarized. i mean, it's hard to have an open conversation without people just instantly sticking to their guns and getting upset about things. that doesn't benefit anyone. >> we appreciate you having the open conversation. we wish you luck on the exam at 10:30. professor mills, maybe give him some extra credit. appreciate it guys, back to you. >> good conversation. hurricane matthew hitting florida. at the top of the hour the countdown to the jobs report is on. the numbers and instant market reaction straight ahead.

busy morning on "squawk box." stick around. ♪ ♪ for decas, investors have ua 60/40 stock and boodel, yet alternatives can th traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they'ractuly designed to help meet ry traditional als.

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sflmplg let's get the latest on hurricane matthew. matt noyes joins us from cnbc headquarters. >> we watch matthew which made its way just north of cape canaveral. one thing we could look at is the center of the storm. the eye. well defined here.

just east of titusville right now. daytona beach as you saw in our live shot a short time ago, getting blasts there. but to the south around port canaveral have seen gusts up to 100 miles per hour. extreme threat through georgia and south carolina. storm surge, nine foot or so that's expected in the worst spots. that may include parts of south carolina over the course of late day and tonight. you can see the track still forecast. come right up just outside of savannah and charleston. then start to take the loop to sunday morning. start to loopback to the south and east. this is a storm that has a lot left to it. the storm surge threat starts to go down a little bit in the hours that follow. but now you're talking about 350,000 more that are without power in the state of florida. so we'll keep you posted on this. i look forward to seeing you with another update in a bit.

back to you, michelle. >> thanks. let's see how the town of jupiter dealt with the storm overnight. joining us is the mayor of jupiter. for our viewers they should know you are 3 1/2 hours south of daytona where we're seeing it kick up. how did you handle the night? how did the city do? >> yeah, well kwb in jupiter we're in northern palm beach county and we are breathing a big sigh of relief this morning in general. we haven't had any reports of injuries and really turned into, you know, a wind event but not nearly what we were fearing last night at around 5:00 to 7:00. i lost power around 7:00. i think i'm in the minority in palm beach county. so we're kind of treating this with a big sigh of relief but we're praying for our neighbors to the north up in florida. sounds like it's tough on them.

>> that's good. i know jupiter so well too. all the restaurants on the coast there. jetties and tequesta is there. so everything's fine? no property damage, mayor? as far as you know nothing's been disrupted that much? >> our initial reports are we're going to have some debris cleanup, power is out. but we just got a robocall from the power company we should get power restored today. so it's going to be a minor inconvenience. we didn't -- i mean, damage is going to be isolated to maybe some tree limbs, things of that nature. the storm surge was one that we were really looking at and we haven't gotten negative reports that i've been informed about. you know, now all of the emergency staff that we deployed, they're out and about

assessing damage. so far so good. certainly not what we feared and then any damage is going to be isolated. we're really thankful that the storm spared us. >> that is terrific news. have you been out and about this morning? >> i -- no. just in the local neighborhood where i am staying. looking around, we don't have power in the area where i am right now, but we're surviving just fine. >> how far are you from the ocean, mayor? >> we're just about three miles from the ocean. so we got -- we -- but so from the reports from town staff, manager, police was that things were very quiet and no major incidents reported at least. >> and you figure the same for palm beach which is just south of you. right? >> that's correct. i mean, jupiter is -- jupiter

and sequetsa represent this northern tip of palm beach county. and because of that jog to the north right around the 9:00 hour, it feels -- and i guess the eye of the storm sort of expanded which took away some of the bite as we headed into the wee hours -- into the evening -- or the late evening. it seems like that spared us. so that was, you know, we're very, very thankful for that. >> great. >> so are we. great stuff. thank you, mr. mayor for joining us. we're all relieved too. when we return, still coming. 8:30 the september jobs report. let's take a quick look at the live shot of the labor department. in just over 30 minutes. we'll bring you the numbers and have instant reaction and the futures ahead of the data have been mostly flat. you can see the dow down about

10, s&p down about 3. "squawk box" will be right back. i got this my second month here. you should he quit while yowere ahead years at is place and for this dayleft fore blo timngt.lo jim, wee and we'll keep evolving this. knowing what's on yourind and actingccdingly so don't w. muiplied by 13,000 financial advisors. it's a beal. and it's how edward d nes mas nse nves.

hurricane matthew slamming florida's atlantic coast. more than a hundred thousand people without power with millions more bracing for the storm. we have a live report from the ground straight ahead. the wait? well, it's almost over. just 30 minutes until the september jobs report. we'll get analysis from our panel of experts and an exclusive interview with cleveland fed president loretta mester coming up. we're live in ohio ahead of the second presidential debate. we're going to learn which matters most to business leaders in this state. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera. becky is off. andrew ross sorkin has got a bad

rash just being in the midwest where i'm from i bet he's itching all over from the battleground state of ohio. very uncomfortable today. >> i'm having a great time, joe. >> although somehow you've found like minded people somehow. i don't know, maybe you went out there a week early to get that done. ahead of this weekend -- >> not true at all. we'll talk -- we're going to talk about politics in a little bit. >> oh, good. we'll hear more from him in a bit. meantime, the countdown is on. we're just about 30 minutes away from the september employment report. polled economists include an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 170,000. it was 151,000 in august. we'll see whether that number is revised also. unemployment expected to hold steady at 4.9%. looking at the futures, they're waiting and watching. down 14.5 now on the dow. the nasdaq indicated to open just under eight points this morning. big market story overnight.

the pound under pressure still this morning. plunged about 6% against the u.s. dollar in minutes before recovering a lot of those losses. right now trading a buck 23. reuters reported it dropped as low as a buck 13. trading is always very, very thin at that hour from north america to asia. traders attributed the drop to comments yesterday from francois hollande who was at a dinner and said the uk had to suffer consequences of its decision to leave the european union. there's been speculation the pound's plunge also was perhaps caused by wrongly entered order or what they call a fat finger trade. thus far, no evidence of that. the other big story we're following this morning, hurricane matthew. the death toll in haiti has now risen to 278. back in the u.s., hurricane slamming florida's coast. it has weakened to a category 3 but some areas have gusted high.

morgan brennan is at daytona beach. she joins us with an update. >> reporter: that's right. a as you look behind me in daytona beach now a daybreak has actually set in, we're starting to be able to assess the situation a little bit better. we've got wind gusts as strong as 67 miles per hour right now. you can see behind me that the surf has really just kicked up and getting choppy. we've got lamp posts behind me that are also rocking in the wind. and now, in terms of where this storm is, this is just going to get worse for us over the next couple of hours. we're still about hurricane matthew about 70 miles southeast of daytona. right now cape canaveral continuing to get the brunt of this with a wind gust as high 107 miles per hour there. recorded for the state of florida. and i've had utilities telling

me we do have daybreak. they expect that number to jump because they're going to have crews out to assess the damage even better than they were before. in terms of first responders, so far the counties that have been affected, first responders are saying it's really too late to get to folks that chose not to evacuate. even so just a little while ago on the "today" show, florida governor rick scott saying there's still time for folks further north in florida. >> if you're in the jacksonville area, you're going to see a lot of storm surge. you still have time to evacuate. there is no reason to take a risk. we've been working to get everyone to evacuate that can. we've had a lot of people evacuate. we're still seeing hurricane forced winds. making sure we don't lose one life. >> reporter: in the meantime, we are getting reports from our nbc affiliate here wfla that on the other side of the bridge from daytona beach, they are starting to see a bit of flooding there

on the international speedway. so as i mentioned, wind speeds picking up here and conditions starting to get stronger as this hurricane moves up the coast. >> thank you, morgan. let's go back to business news and the jobs report. we'll get to our jobs panel ahead of the report which is due out in less than a half hour. joining us now vince reinhart, dan suzuki, and aaron klein. vince, let's start with you. before the reporting comes out, how do you characterize the jobs market in the united states right now? is it tight? >> the job market is tight. reason the employment is important we hear job gains, we hear about economic slack because of the unemployment report and we hear something about cost because of average hourly earnings. all three are going to be informative. with regard to your question, where the unemployment rate is

is close to everybody's natural rate. we don't have that much resource slack. >> then every other time they've got -- they're like, they got an airplane bad data. it was always something that makes it a bad day to do something. in december they'll have no excuse if things go as we just heard. >> i think that's a big if. i think that's right. if you look at the trend -- >> is it an if if they get a good number they'll go in december, right? >> i think there's still another jobs report between now and then. i pick overall if you look at the data we've gotten on the labor market, it's actually been pretty good. it does point to a decent job report. the actual leading indicators to the report were pretty weak. you had a weak number overall. and i think from our perspective that's a pretty volatile number with a huge confidence range. i think if you look at the

multi-year trend, we're clearly in the slowing period. regardless of what happens today, we're probably going to have the slowest year on year growth that we've had in jobs the last three years. >> but it's for a good reason. supposedly. aaron, will that -- this is good news and we like jobs, obviously, but if it does allow the fed to move, is that bad news for equities? >> well, look. if the fed starts tightening too fast that would be a bad move for everybody. equities as well as the real economy. i'm not sure, dan. the three-month moving average was smoothed out. these job fluctuations have been moving. we've had five years with jobs added per year. it looks like we'll continue on that pace. with regard to vince, there's a little more room to go than you think. close to a lot of estimates of full employment. but a broader measurement which

i'm looking at which includes more marginal. it's still 1.5% higher than it usually is towards full employment. >> why do you think the 10-year yield has been rising lately? >> there's doubt about the projects at central banks and doubt of investors about central banks. just over the last couple of weeks, the bank of japan redefined the playing field. then there were rumors of the ecb. >> this foreign talk affects the u.s. interest rate picture, of course. i'm just outlining that for the novice viewers. you were rolling your eyes like of course it does. >> a third are negative. >> the other point i would make is focused so much on what the

fed is going to do. but interest rates that matter to mortgage rates, to lending, et cetera are moving independently of what's happening with what the u.s. fed is going to do. >> that's right. the fed will be moving around the front end of the yield curve. but foreign central banks will be crushing volatility and putting downward pressure on long-term yields. >> that impacts the u.s. market. >> absolutely. >> this doubt about what they're doing means that long-term interest rates are rising regardless of what the fed is doing. >> i absolutely agree with you. it does put in questions the sustainability of the rally. >> of the stock rally. >> of the stock market rally. i think we're cautious in the near term. if you look at the big rally since february, one of the reasons was rates were falling and that was going to support the market. then you had all these people dusting off their fed models. and if rates are rising which they have 40 basis points since june, i think that's a big deal. overall credit conditions are pretty weak. and credit markets are

tightening. i think that's negative for the markets. >> aaron, am i making too much of this? 1.74 for the 10-year. i mean, it's the high end of the range. is it going to break out? does it matter that much? >> no, look, look. markets are volatile and i expect more volatility to increase especially as you look at the election coming up here in the u.s. and the continued negotiations of brexit picking up steam which you point out rattled the markets overnight. and currencies aren't supposed to move 6% 8% in the wee hours of the night. so i don't think you're making too much of this. and i think there is a real risk there. but i think investors would be wise to think over the last few years the fed is always going to raise rates at its next meeting yet it's only ever raised once. don't believe the hype too much. >> don't believe the hype. the reason that people have said we're in this environment not only with these low rates, but because they're even lower in

these countries that aren't going to be able to pay back their debt. they have similar rates than we do. suddenly it's not going to be a global issue. we're going to do all these things and diverge. there's going to be nirp over there. how's that going to happen? >> one thing we all have in common across the advanced economy is potential output growth has slowed everywhere. that means rates will be low a everywhere. what the fed is talking about essentially is flattening the yield curve by pulling up short rates. long rates will go up a little. but you're right. foreign central banks will be sitting on them for a long time. but by the way, 2.5% sounds pretty high right now. we haven't been that high for a long time. >> i had a guy predict the bund would go to 0.3% or 0.4%. that's a huge move isn't it? >> it's enormous. >> yeah.

you want to do it now or keep it coming? comments from mario draghi crossing the wires just moments ago. draghi said the ecb will preserve a substantial amount of monetary support and said if warranted the ecb would act using all instruments available within its mandate. here's what european equities are doing. the ftse is the only in the positive. all the other markets there have been negative and by about this much. he's saying this to counter what you and i were just talking about. that there's doubts in the world that they were going to be as committed as they said they were. >> there was a rumor that really moved markets in the middle of the week that the ecb would start tapering. president draghi did what a central bank always does. point to a direction but don't give your time frame, don't give an amount. >> and that's what this is. to counter those rumors. got it. thank you, gentlemen. joe? >> yep. you thanked them. coming up, we are monitoring

hurricane matthew's path. we'll bring an update after the break. first andrew is squawking the vote in ohio. do you have coming up? >> ahead of the big debate this weekend, we've got the ceo of huntington bank share. biggest bank in this state. we're going to talk to him about jobs, the economy, and of course politics. more in a moment as we squawk the vote from columbus, ohio. hey gary, wh yodoing? oh heyso we can are our rrains azg tradknowdge. that's areat idea,

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let's get to ohio. andrew joins us live with a special guest. andrew? >> thank you. we are in columbus and we're taking a look at the state of regional banking and the election here in columbus, ohio. i'm thrilled to be joined this morning by steve stein heart. he's the ceo of the biggest mortgage lender in the state. >> yes. >> most by deposits. >> yes. >> i think you're the second largest in the country in terms of lending to small businesses. >> yes. >> so give us just a snapshot of what the economy is like here. we were driving around yesterday, it feels like it's booming here. >> this is a boom city. it's one of the fastest booming cities. unemployment is very low. it's hovering between 3% to slightly over 4% for the last two years.

this has been a growth. we've been in a growth mode for the last seven years. 135,000 jobs in the city alone. >> it does seem divided between the cities and the further you go out more in terms of the rural areas. how does it divide in terms of your business these days. >> we are located throughout the state. we have the most branches in the state and we're in all of the metro areas as well as most of the rural areas. >> single biggest economic issue politically for this state. in terms of voting, poem say they're voting with their wallet. how do they measure it? >> i think tax policy is the single biggest issue for the state. >> and the goal being to lower taxes, i imagine. but are we talking on an individual basis? corporate basis? >> well, i answered in the context of business that corporate tax rates. but i suspect that it would be true personally. >> we've heard donald trump has

provided a relatively comprehensive tax policy for corporations. we heard what he plans to do. we have not heard from hillary clinton. how do you judge exactly those two? >> i think there's still so much time between now and the election. and we'll have an opportunity to weigh in. >> as a bank and a banker, you know, everyone's looking at these jobs numbers because they're going to look to see what the fed is going to do which is a huge impact on your business. but you've heard donald trump say that he would replace janet yellen. do you believe janet yellen has done a good job? >> i think the fed should be apolitical and needs to operate in that fashion. so i'm not going to comment about their job. i think the fed overall since this great recession has done an outstanding job. >> do you think it has been apolitical? >> yes. >> you do? >> yes. >> so you don't think the decisions around raising or not raising have been related to the election? >> that's correct. >> fair enough. i imagine you want rates to raise. >> we do. >> and do you think they will?

>> well, i'm usually wrong, andrew, so take that with a caveat. but i do think they will raise rates. and if not in the fourth quarter, soon in the new year. >> so you do think we could get to '17. when you think about just your own business in terms of dodd/frank, all the regulations around banks spp there one candidate that you think will do a better job on that issue? donald trump has talked about repealing dodd/frank. for the most part it sounds like hillary clinton has -- would perhaps even add more regulations around the banking system. >> i think it's premature to judge it off either candidate. they're in a race now. so the real key is who do they appoint to the key positions? and how business friendly are they? because we're at the intersection of commerce. i think they're a big part of the economic recovery in the u.s. and i believe the appointments will generate leeway, if you will, or opportunity for growth. >> so far you've been unwilling

to publicly endorse a candidate. i've been prodding you trying. let me ask you this. there are some ceos who have come out saying i'm for clinton or for trump. then there are other ceos who say -- usually they whisper, i can't tell you. because i have customers on both sides. it's such a polarizing election. it's going to be a problem. how do you feel about that this time around? is it different this time around? >> i don't think so. public ceos, we have a responsibility to meet our customer expectations and we have customers on both sides of this equation. nearest corollary i would provide to you is look what's happened in ohio in the last seven years. john kasich came in with a plan, the governor's done a great job. we went from 9% unemployment rate to hovering around 5% or less. we've had great growth. not just in columbus but throughout the state. and so there's been an economic plan, it's been complemented with tax policy. and i think he's done a great job. that's what we're looking for in leadership. >> okay.

well, we hope we get it from either of these candidates and we thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> thanks so much. still to come, guys, the september jobs report just minutes away. going to bring you the numbers and the instant market reaction. "squawk box" returns not from columbus but back in new york? just a moment. still to come, inside the squawk reserve with cleveland fed president loretta mester. we'll get her immediate reaction to the jobs number. plus get her take on the rate hike timeline and the economy. that exclusive conversation is coming up. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we are tracking hurricane matthew as it makes its way up the florida coast. the death toll in haiti now has risen to 478. that's according to officials there. back here in the united states, the hurricane is slamming florida's atlantic coast. it has weakened to a category 3 but some parts of florida have measured wind gusts of up to 107 miles per hour. major theme parks are closed today including universal studios, florida, and sea world orlando. most governments and universities are closed today there. lauderdale by the sea, that's to the south where the hurricane is moving ashore. when we have morgan brennan on, she's in daytona beach, and it's

windy there. when we return, we'll go back to the countdown to the jobs report. we'll get final predictions from our panel. and then we'll have the number of the month. plus a cnbc exclusive interview after the number with loretta mester. we'll be right back. man, i'm glalac!c ysash. isn't major medical enough? no! o'nna' help cover the holes in their plans?

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- we had to think a little more seriously about saving money for the future and for the kids and for their college funds. we thought, "well this airbnb is actually a great way to pay those extra bills." - every bit of extra money helps these days. we have a retirement fund of our own and i take a draw on it. i don't want to take too much either because i don't know what life is going to bring to me. i get to keep 97% of my rental price. the extra income i get from airbnb has been a huge help. - airbnb has helped me so much financially especially starting my own business. san francisco is such an expensive place to live. the way people work and travel is changing. the guests are now able to stay longer, stay five days, enjoy another day in san francisco and spend more money in the neighborhood. my guests are able to extend their stay and spend more money on activities and restaurants.

- the extra income that i get from airbnb has been a huge impact in my life. welcome back to "squawk box." it is time for the final countdown to the jobs report. we have predictions from our jobs panel. steve, let's start with you. what's your number? >> me? >> yeah. >> i never go first. that's great. 167,000 on the private sector. adding 7,000 from the government sector. 174,000 is my number. >> all right. rick san -- you are? >> 400,000 as evidence of the obama miracle to be continued by hillary clinton. >> absolutely. >> rick santelli, i bet you

agree with that. what's your number? >> well, i agree with it but i call it political seasonality. i'm at 233,000. >> you're looking good there in that graphic. i like it. vince, what's your number? >> 175,000 and to be fair i wrote it down before i heard steve's 174,000. i wasn't doing "price is right" kind. >> that's right. you were to be 173,000 if it was their rules. >> aaron? >> 213,000. i think there are seasonalties in september with people going back to school, going back to work because the labor market continues to be strong. >> mr. suzuki? >> i'll go with 140,000. >> all right. >> i think you told everybody the numbers in advance because it's already on the graphic. right? >> yeah. >> aaron is just very, very -- aaron is the bullish -- most bullish. >> no i am.

>> your number doesn't count, kernen. it's randomly drawn. >> it's not random. it's just, you know, they could put up 400,000 they will. >> you might get it on the household. >> can we put up the -- >> then it'll be forced to tighten. >> i know. i already said that. let's get to hampton for the report. >> up 156,000. september nonfarm payrolls increased by 156,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 5%. average hourly earnings up 0.2%, 2.6% year over year. revisions, we had july revised downward from 275,000 to 252,000. august revised upward 151,000 to 167,000. a net average of 7,000 fewer jobs than had been previously reported over the past two months. private sector employment in september increased by 167,000.

how did we get to that 5% unemployment rate? both the number of employed and unemployed increased. the unemployment increase was 354,000. the employment was 90,000. 5% is the highest unemployment rate since april of this year. september job gains. professional and business services. up 67,000. health care, plus 33,000. food services and drinking places, aka restaurants, up 30,000. 62.9% is the labor force participation rate. the highest since march when it was 63%. average job gains over the last three months now at 192,000. 9.7% is the real unemployment rate, if you will. it's been unchanged for the last three months. too early to tell if there's any effects of hurricane matthew perhaps on the next jobs report. back to you. >> all right. look at the markets, number one. i want to talk to leisman

quickly. so for me, what i need to know is where the december fed futures are now. because, you know, i figure maybe they'll do 800,000 now next month. >> i'm calculating your error. >> no 350,000 on the household. >> you can't change it. >> i'm saying this is going to be added now to next month's and we're probably looking at 800,000 right before the election. no. but steve, my question to you. you said that last time september could still be live with as little as 150,000. this to me, the way the market's reaction is almost looking like this is not enough to guarantee december. that's why the markets are -- >> hang on. i got a print here. i got still unchanged on november. the reuters numbers are slightly different than the cme. >> if zandi were here, he'd

paint the bullish picture -- >> i am just going on what the fed folks tell me. and a lot of the economists as well. >> is 150,000 good? >> 150,000 is roughly double the growth of the working age population. >> then why is the market up? >> forget the market. the market does a lot of weird stuff in the first couple minutes afterwards. there's a lot of robot trading going on right now. wait a second until the adults and the humans take over. we'll see how they take it. however, what i will tell you, we had an influx into the workforce. 444,000 people came back to work. americans are back to work. as you said correctly, inside the household survey 354,000 additionally employed. >> that's what i was saying. i said 400,000 so 350,000 forward -- >> you can't change the metric. >> so rick, what -- i hear you chortling over there. what's your analysis of this? give me some behind the scenes spin on this? >> that the political seasonality is overruled by the

notion of trying to get the equities going. i find it fascinating -- >> i said that. that they didn't -- >> because my model number was 144,000 so i seasonally adjusted it too high. here's the market's version. and let's really pay close attention to this. stocks did go up on this. steve may be right, robots. wait until humans take over. if you wait for them to take over, you're waiting a long time. it's the natural progression of what's been going on. and there's no stopping it. i think leaders really need to be more on top of the notion that these are not our grandpa's or our father's markets. they're never going to go back and whether it's robots or the fact that the markets are mere shadows of what they used to be, their policies are going to

cause issues related to that intermediation and it isn't going to change. trust me. but i think that interest rates are so sticky, that even when stocks went up, rates hardly dipped at all on the long end. they dipped a little on the short end. now we're at 1.75%. >> it's all over the place. we're going not huge moves but it looks volatile. >> here it goes. remember. this could be the highest yield close since basically early june. but more important than that, we are now closing above the highest yield close since the all-time low at 1.36. if you're a technician, that a close. >> they can raise rates after the election. they can raise rates in december. they can raise rates in december. they can put up a strong jobs numbers and still raise rates in december and it doesn't mess anything up. >> vince, this is something i

talked about at 7:00 hour. decent numbers double the growth working population. yet the unemployment rate rises. so this is really backing up their notion the economy has room to run. that there's more slack out there than first apparent. >> it is validating janet yellen's hypothesis. but monetary policy is supposed to be forward looking. another thing janet yellen says a lot. as you say, it's about twice the run rate that would keep the unemployment rate unchanged with unchanged labor force participation. there's income grows because wages did go up. hours stayed the same. more people working. >> just hold onto that thought. dan, we could get into the numbers, but what vince said is probably the most important for investors. more people are working. wages are up decent and that means income growth and spending and gdp, no?

>> absolutely. i think the number was decent. the one thing i point to is it didn't recover. 800,000 jobs. that's an poornt thing to watch and leading component at the labor market. i don't think it changes the overall story that growth is slowing. this is probably still the slowest year on year growth we've seen in years. if we go on this track. >> hold that thought. i want to get to aaron on this. aaron, you were pointing to the three-month average which i haven't calculated just yet but it's got to be down now. yeah 1.92 now. is dan right? growth is slowing down from 200 average down it looks like 150 is the right call here. >> so there's a big disconnect. you've had 2 million jobs being added. unless you believe that corporations are hiring unproductive workers by the boat

load, something's got to give here. i think the gdp numbers will be revised upward when you go back to look at it. yes, there's a recession coming. we've had five years of 2 million jobs growing. but the important thing for the fed to think about is you now have an unemployment rate at 5%. despite large entry into the lay bar market and tough say this has more room to run especially when there's no hint of inflation yet. i think this is going to move the fed more towards december. >> and november is off the table for everybody at the table here. >> end of october, yeah. i don't think this is going to be the moment where you're going to go in there -- >> because of the election? >> not just because of the election. >> not just because of. >> they haven't set up the market this way. and what's the immediacy there? more data. the fed's been in this position they're always looking for more data to confirm. >> futures are lower. interest rates are higher in the wake of the number. >> now it's reversed what it was

when it first came out. that's why i said you got to wait. there's a weird bounce after big speeches and data. it's this ball going up and down. rick is right. but, i mean, anybody who front runs this stuff, they almost always have to lose money in some way, shape, or form. >> interest rates aren't falling in that formula. pretty much the long end stayed where it was and moved tighter. there really wasn't any pushback. they're impervious to the fundamentals right now. that is something that everyone needs to zero in on. they really are impervious to fundamentals. >> it came right back down. i got 21. it was 21 -- it was 0.4% on the thing. but on the chart -- >> now it's down 3.75. so it's still a little higher than before the number. >> thank you, gentlemen. coming up next, a cnbc exclusive. we're going to get reaction to the jobs number from cleveland fed president loretta mester. plus we're tracking hurricane matthew's path. we're going to bring you the

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welcome back. i was asking was it a -- why would it move higher initially if it wasn't a bad number? >> maybe people -- >> talking about the stock market. they are fast trades and we don't know -- >> they're fast trades and they're programmed. you realize this, you know this, right? there are programs that read the numbers off the wires.

and they're programmed to trade relative to that number being higher or lower than the number expected by the computer. >> great jobs number is -- >> here's the answer i've come up with. their programmed relative to their programming before the number comes out. so it's relative to their book. you know what your book is like. you want to end up "x" at the end of the day. yo go into the number at "y." >> don't give me too much. i want to know whether the market wants no increase. >> i have maintained for a long time and i think i can prove this, the market wants jobs and growth much more than it wants anything from the fed. >> we'll have someone that can address that. i don't know if i can believe that. hurricane matthew is battering the coast of florida. it's been downgraded to a category 3. wish it was like a 1. it's expected to move now north into georgia and south carolina later today and early tomorrow. we're now taking you to a live

shot of daytona beach, florida, right now. we're going to continue to monitor the storm and bring you updates as they become available. >> every minute that goes by, that building gets less and less visible out there. let's get to steve leisman who you knew was here. he has a special guest on set. >> let's bring in loretta mester. she's the president of the cleveland federal reserve. >> thanks for having me. >> is this a good number? >> it's a solid number. >> how do you come to that conclusion? >> remember 75,000 to 120,000 per month is about what you need to keep unemployment stable. >> and you come to that because that's the growth of the working age population. >> that's a number above that. you've seen solid labor market number consistently this year. i would say. i mean, we're 192,000 i think you said -- >> the three-month average. >> which is a solid number.

the unemployment rate is about at what my estimate of full employment is. you know, natural rate of unemployment. that's a good number. you've got incomes going up. you have solid hours worked. again, i think this is consistent with what we expected to see. certainly with my forecast. >> but we have this number which you acknowledge is double the growth of the working age population yet the unemployment rate doesn't decline. this is exactly the viewpoint of those who think the fed should not raise rates because it shows the economy has room to run. there's more labor slack out there than it appears. >> so, i mean, there's a view out there that you should try to sort of test that. and keep interest rates very, very low for a long time because you can test that. but we've learned from history, right, that you have to be forward looking. so i don't think we're behind the curve yet. we don't have to bring rates up strongly.

i would like to view us on this gradual path. when i see the labor market before today and all the other labor indicators we've been getting, i think we're at full employment. but, you know, i understand there's some estimates around that. so i'll give you that. i see that the inflation measures are moving up. we have to be forward looking. so in terms of our two goals, monetary policy goals, i think we're -- it takes -- it makes sense to move up another 25 basis points. >> would you raise rates as soon as november given the election is six days laefrt? >> i think all meetings are on the table. and we're an apolitical institution. we are technocrats and i go in thinking about what's best for the economy in my view. that's what i base my decisions on. >> but we heard janet yellen saying brexit plays in. it's not odd to think the u.s. election could play in. >> but it was about the outlook.

what is it for the economy? one of the things i've been struck by is the economy has been very resilient b. right? through a number of the risks the committee has been worried about. early in the year remember the volatility in the financial markets. >> from china. >> right. the slowdown in china. right? the re-evaluation of the dollar. again, then we had the june brexit vote. and then we got through that. again, the economy has proven to be quite resilient. and again, i think that's sort of consistent with the outlook that things are improving. >> many people who have wanted the feds to raise rates earlier have worried about inflation. it ultimately has never come to pass. there were arguments early on. 2008, 2009. if you expand the balance sheet this way. we're going to have this run away inflation sort of using automatically the ideas that inflation is a monetary policy phenomenon.

why haven't you changed your model when inflation has not responded the way you thought? >> again, we're using the best models available in terms of prediction of inflation. look at what's happened with inflation. don't worry about the forecast. look at inflation numbers, right? as the value of the dollar, the appreciation of the dollar, and the oil prices have worked through, right? you have seen the inflation numbers come up. right? so the pce year over year rate is now 1.7. right? that's approaching the goal of 2%. again, you have to be forward looking when doing this policy. right? it takes quite a while for the policy to affect the economy. and again, i don't think we're behind the curve. right? it's really whether we want to be consistent with our view that a gradual upward tilt to the policy path is right and, you know, is it appropriate given the economy and given our outlook and given the risks. do we take another step on that? >> larry summers was on this week with the secular stagnation, the -- you know, that there's a supply glut, no demand. all these, like, really macro,

like secular, not cyclical issues that keep the world growing slowly and keep interest rates low for a long period of time. what i gleaned from it was that, you know, monetary policy can stay at zero. probably won't help anything. so it's no longer really going to necessarily help because of these bigger problems that we have that are the reason we're where we are. but then if it's not going to help, i still think you'd have to think about are we sure we're not hurting in terms of savers and in terms of people moving out the risk curve where they shouldn't be and in terms of corporations gaining the system with low interest rates and not investing for the long-term and buying back stock and doing this and doing that. so if that's not the cure, if you're using, like, an antibiotic on a virus -- if you're using an antibiotic on a virus but you may end up making antibiotics resistant to everything else in the process or doing some harm, i don't know. i think you're in dangerous

territory. no? >> i don't think we're doing harm. >> but how would you know until you're on the other side of where -- >> but again, right? i think the argument for why another 25 basis point increase on our gradual path makes sense is based on based on our two monetary goals. yes, there are other people who worry if you keep interest rates at zero for a long time there could be -- there might be financial imbalances building up. my argument is really based on the outlook for the economy and really our goals. but most economists would agree, right, with productivity as low as it is, we're going to have lower interest rates. >> that doesn't mean zero, loretta. >> it doesn't necessarily mean zero forever. >> our cnbc fed survey shows wall street doesn't think you guys are following a plan. that there's a framework out there. when we asked people what -- do you think the fed follows the latest economic data or the medium term framework? it seems like according to this data that we've gathered you've

got a communication problem sgr i will be talking about that later today in a speech i'm giving. and i was on your show when you released that in august. and that did trouble me, right? because we are following, right, principles in terms of how we do monetary policy. i certainly focus on the outlook, where we are for goals -- >> there's the data. 60% said no. >> i will concede these results trouble me in the sense of what you said about our communication. >> some critics think you are doing harm, to joe's question, capital going to places it otherwise wouldn't. maybe having the opposite effect when interest rates are so low people save much more rather than spending because they think, wow, i've got far less to live on retirement. they think there are negative consequences out there. >> i think we have to balance, right? we're looking at a balance, right? we had interest rates low. i think we appropriately brought interest rates down. now the economy is moving back toward, right, a growth rate

that's picking up in the second half of the year, the solid labor market report today coupled with all the other labor indicators suggests that and inflation is moving back up. that's an argument we can move back up interest rates on this gradual path back towards a more normal rate. >> loretta, thank you -- do you want to ask another question? >> no. >> i don't want to defy them in the back. loretta, thank you so much for joining us today. >> thank you for having me. >> here's the world we live in, the leader in colombia congratulating the nobel prize on twitter -- i don't follow him but he's tweeting out on the president for nobel prize. the world is insane. anyway. >> thank you, it's great to have you. >> private sector forecast -- >> when we return, jim cramer live from san francisco.

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let's head out west. jim cramer joins us now from san francisco. before we went to break, jim, twitter had been in the news, people aren't interested. so it went down. but still just in the world i was talking to michelle that the fark leader down in colombia, maybe he's not on the run anymore as a rebel leader.

>> he's not on the run. >> but going to congratulate the president on his nobel prize, he does it on twitter. it really is ubiquitous. it's a real thing. i wonder how you make money from it. that's the whole point. >> everyone who talked about behind the scenes twitter and the negotiations, whether it be with salesforce, whether it be with google, and those are really the chief ones comes back over and over again in talks about relevance. this is where people go. and right after that they say it's also where people trash people. it's where real ugliness is, it's where the advertisers don't want to be. the ugliness drives out the good. so what they're balancing is that in a certain price this thing is very, very live, like a $20 price. but at $29 you have to be willing to take a gigantic hit because you have to spend a fortune to try to make it in a hospitable environment so the volumes will grow, the numbers of people who come to twitter is not growing. >> all right. jim, i like it a lot. i like twitter because i like

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what team irihes)rth? what's it worth to talk to your mom? what the value of capital is to create,the vf not just wealth, t thin that matter. whamorgan stanley capital is to create,the vf andrew in columbus, ohio. andrew, we missed you today.

>> we miss you. i should tell you by the way, no republican has won the presidency without winning ohio since lincoln. and no democrat since kennedy. so we're going to have to watch this state. we're supposed to be in jacksonville today, by the way. that's next on our little road trip. we're also going to be in phoenix in the next few weeks. >> but it's different now. >> did you know lincoln was a republican, andrew? that's weird. >> i heard. i heard. >> we'll see you next week. make sure you join us monday. "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at the new york stock exchange. cramer's at one market in san francisco. pretty steady premarket as we are watching three things, jobs number at 156, slightly below estimates, that flash crash in the british pound and of course hurricane matthew making landfall. europe uniformly in the red. the 10-year creeping up near 1.76 as we saw wage growth tick up to 2.6 year on year. first up though, hurca