tv Squawk Alley CNBC October 11, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
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galaxy note 7 phone amid all those reports. this is samsung's worst-ever recall and could cost the company as much as $17 billion. not coincidentally, apple shares rallying, relatively speaking, top gainer on the dow. john, we sort of set this up in the last hour. now we're starting to put this in context of giant recalls and corporate crises in history. >> it's difficult to gauge. smart phone is this unprecedented consumer product, and millions of units, highly profitable. only a couple of companies in the industry have been able to consistently make profits at it. apple and samsung. now you've got samsung stumbling. equity that could be lost. google pushing in, competitors at the lower end trying to push up. and it's q4. if you've got a premium phone, you can sell it. if you don't, you just can't sell it. how many people shift to a lower
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profit samsung phone? how many people abandon android or how many switch to another android provider? we'll have to see. >> fte is comparing this to j & j and tylenol. that situation took about three months to rectify, to actually get that tamper resistant seal on the medicine bottles. if you had to guess how long it's going to take samsung to come up with a new product that doesn't have these problems, how long do you think it would take? >> that's a great question. the problem for samsung is unlike johnson & johnson in the tylenol case, they resisted doing the right thing. they initially tried to downplay the problems. i think that has made this consumer problem much worse. the second big difference here is that smart phones have just reached maturity. so you're in a category in which consumer behavior is pretty deeply set and people are not upgrading at anything like the rate they did before.
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and i would not underestimate f you're a customer you're saying to yourself, gosh, do i get the one with the beautiful camera or the one that explodes? >> it's easy for competitors who want samsung's market share to look at this. do you think this could happen to anybody? >> i think it absolutely could happen to anybody. i think what people forget is that smart phones just came on the market in 2008. we've gone from pcs and lap tops to essentially having a computer in your pocket. that innovation has been very,
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very fast, faster than any other computing platform. as a result, it's a very complex product and anybody who is building such a complex product could have multiple points of failur failure. >> if that's the case, roger, do we start to worry about other supply chains? >> to be clear, the note is essentially a battery with a little bit of display and other electronics wrapped around it and lithium ion is notoriously volatile material, subject to this kind of fire and explosion risk. every smart phone is basically a lithium ion battery. every tesla car, every electric car is subject to this exact same issue. people have known about the issue from the beginning. there are ways you can handle it. obviously tens of millions of these smart phones are out there and most of them do not blow up.
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but if you cut corners -- and it's clear that samsung cut corners -- the risk goes up. the temptation to cut corners increase, the risk is rising that you'll see things like this from other people because of corner cutting. at the same time people have a lot of experience working with this material. so there's really no excuse for it if you're doing a good job running your company. this is a bad sign for samsung. >> cheryl, where is the investment opportunity here? qualcomm seeing the note 7 wasn't carrying the application processor from samsung, from qualcomm if people switch with other android phones they might use a premium phone that has a qualcomm chip. do you think there are other areas where companies will benefit if people shift away from samsung's note 7? >> i think the immediate shift is just from one smart phone provider to another. as you mentioned, folks like
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google who are now getting into the hardware game more seriously. beyond that, though, there is a brand and platform issue that samsung needs to address. they have other brands outside the samsung line that they need to protect. the smart phone is just the beginning of that. that is the device that almost all consumers carry around with them. and is the first point of entry for people moving into this category. >> all right. we'll move on to twitter, guys of the david faber reporting the company still in talks with sales force, a day after twitter fell about 12% as buyers appeared to be losing interest. bloomberg got a copy of a message from jack dorsey to employees. he says, quote, life is short. every day matters. roger, we're here again, tossing this one around, trying to see what the company's future is with very little visibility.
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what do you think right now? >> they're playing in the same game at the same level. the fundamentals have not delivered the results those investors expected. the stock has a premium that, for an acquirer is just way too high relative to the earnings they're likely to get. the deal would be, i suspect, massively diluted. it's unlikely to be bridged. i can imagine a vanity deal being done here. it's hard for me to see anybody being able to make a great case that twitter is additive to their earnings. i see people who can build other businesses. google can leverage it. facebook could leverage it. not at an earnings sense.
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that makes this a super tough deal. >> is that true at 17 or also at nine? >> the market cap today is, what, 14 or 15? it's way off where i think a deal is easy to do. it doesn't mean they can't get it done. these deals are sold, not bought. a lot of smart m & a bankers and with enough wine they can get somebody to buy this thing. if i'm a share holder of the buyer, i'm not excited to be the -- >> sales force has tried to wrap their head around. cheryl, it might make more sense from a product perspective to have this company go into the hands of a content company. it doesn't sound like any of those companies are around the hoop. even though jack dorsey is
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trying to des till the purpose of the platform as a people's news network. what does a sales force need the people's news network for? >> there's a lot of date value still in the data that they provide. is it going to be dilutive to a buyer, that's definitely a concern. there is value in the data, in the twitter stream. that definitely is a problem. i think on top of that, if you look at the fact that twitter hasn't really grown in terms of users or engagement or even revenue for the past five quarters, that's also a problem.
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that's difficult for different companies to parse out. >> also have to say, carl, never a good sign when the ceo of the company starts writing notes like they belong at the end of a yearbook. what a long, strange trip it's been. uh-oh. i don't know what's coming next. have a great summer! >> data stream at twitter has always offered, in my opinion, huge potential value, particularly if a company treated it like bloomberg, making products designed for analyzing the markets, politics and news based on changes in long-term behavior on twitter. that potential has always been there. the fact that dorsey and prior managements of twitter have never been able to do anything with that should give huge pause
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to any buyer. >> interesting day. cheryl cheng and roger mcnamie. the worst day of the month in october for the major averages. currently the dow is down 153 points. alcoa shares taking a hit after missing on both earnings and revenue. shares falling by 6.5% year over year. the company says that's still on track about a month from now that shares are off, carl, about 11%. when we come back, live interview with barry diller, with us in a cnbc exclusive. samsung's massive problems with galaxy note 7. how much damage could it do to the company's bottom line? and heath terry will tell us what he's watching when "squawk alley" comes back in a moment.
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blink is accepted at all major chains and most independent pharmacies nationwide. it's free to use, it works for everyone, and purchases are always refundable. check the blink price of your prescription now, and get $10 off your first purchase at blinkhealth.com, promo code tv. on top of news that twitter and salesforce remain in talks, what can we expect? joining us now goldman sachs heath terry. let's talk twitter first. >> sure. >> people love to speculate what they think a company like this would go for. roger mcnamie just said it wouldn't make sense above 25. what's enterprise value for this? >> it would imply about $16 billion. >> who could pay that? could salesforce convince its
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investors to pay that? >> sure. you know, i will start by saying we get all our news on this from you guys, from the rest of the press out there. so we don't have any real inside information on that. that said, i think in terms of who can pay for it, we've always said it's big media platforms, advertising platforms, anybody who is looking at it and saying we can do better with that asset than the company has been able to do on its own. over 300 million users that are highly engaged on that platform. that's got a lot of value to somebody. >> heath, we've seen linkedin basically go already. microsoft is in the process of trying to acquire it. yahoo! similarly. why is twitter so difficult? is it just because management has been ambivalent about doing some kind of deal? is it the history of volatility in managements, do you think? ta is it b grade compared to the others? >> a lot has been written about that volatility piece.
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why we are where we are right now. asset like this is even in play. but it's also why the company has had such a tough time getting to the vision that they've put out there, for what twitter is supposed to be. getting to the financial numbers for what twitter is supposed to be. until you get some sort of stability with this management team or another owner, that's probably still going to be a problem. >> is that code for saying you need a full-time ceo or is there something beyond that? >> honestly, i don't know that that's necessarily the issue. you need a product person that's been in the job for more than 12 months, a ceo that's been in the job for more than 12 months. you need this constant carousel of heads of engineering, product and marketing to stop. >> if you can't hit targets in an election year, what does that mean for your platform? >> you're absolutely right. this is an election year. it's an olympics year. they've got a lot of tail winds behind their back, new nfl deal that they've been doing.
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it all should be making this a lot easier for them to do. it just has to happen. >> there's often this assumption that there's room for a third player or fourth player in any given market. some people are making that about social media here. i'm not sure where twitter would stand in the pecking order. in the case of blackberry, there wasn't really room for a third operating system. might that be the case with twitter? might the value actually be considerably less than people think? yeah, there's data in there but there's data in linkedin, facebook, google. you can get daty a lot of different places. >> absolutely. for most of us -- people around here are probably exceptions. we all only have one smart phone, right, but have multiple apps on our phones, multiple different network. there are reasons we're on twitter, facebook and snapchat. as long as that distinction exists for each one of these, that keeps a third place person
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in a pretty choice spot. >> you want to switch to netflix really quick? >> sure. >> heck of a week. does goldman take any of that seriously? >> we don't have netflix rated. we have a four-point scale we use. they're not in our top two. it's largely because netflix is so valuable. the ability to pull from multiple places for content, the ability to distribute everywhere. i think that value will be hard for another owner to recognize. >> if we're talking about a potential laundry list of acquisitions, we can't end talking about pan dora. >> right. >> do you think that happens in the near future? >> we do have that one rated as the number two on our list, 15% to 30% chance of it getting taken out. i don't think the company wants that to happen. they have this big goal of getting to $4 billion the next five years and revenue from
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these subscription products. if they can't get there, they can't execute, there's value. that real estate on your phone has a lot of value. having that beach front that twitter, pan dora, facebook has, has a lot of value. >> to be continued. up next, donald trump turning his fire on paul ryan and the republican leadership. details when we come right back.
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worst day for the nasdaq, down more than a full percent. >> yeah and donald trump lashing out on twitter at paul ryan and republicans who won't campaign for him, saying, quote, the shackles are off. john harwood is in washington with the latest. john? >> it's just getting more intense. anyone who had the illusion,
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perhaps earlier in the campaign, that donald trump was going to get to the end of the fall and see himself as a player on the republican team as opposed to a player on the donald trump team, that illusion has been shattered now. look at these tweets. he said the shackles are off. now i can campaign the way i've wanted to. he said that paul ryan was weak and ineffective. he said that disloyal republicans were showing their stripes and that he was going to teach them how to win. this is relevant because i was talking yesterday to newt ging dls rich. he said we are looking at an historic split within the republican party, republicans loyal to trump and establishment republicans who are wedded to the traditional way of doing
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things. we saw that yesterday when we asked republicans around the country, do you want your member of congress to stick with donald trump, about two-thirds said yes. but the rest said no, they should either -- members of congress should either repudiate donald trump or ask him to leave the race. the problem is you need a high level of cohesion to win a presidential election and high level of partisan cohesion to win senate seats and some house seats in competitive places. this is a big challenge for republicans. last four weeks of the campaign, i was talking to long-time trump adviser, friend, confidante, roger stone. he said it is going to be brutal. >> we are bracing for that. apple and sang samsung at the supreme court. for that we'll go to hampton pearson. >> reporter: hi, carl. oral arguments just ended.
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apple versus samsung patent battle that's been going on several years now. essentially samsung asking the high court to overturn a damages battle for patent infringement, roughly $399 million. the money is the least of the issue. instead the high court is being asked for the first time in a very long time to take a look at a century-old statute that says, in essence, when it comes to the design of a product, it's the design and the manufacturer of the product, it's the total profit that matters. samsung is taking the other view. they basically were found guilty of violating three patents related to smart phones many years ago and, again, not the total patent that's at issue here. so, samsung lost in the lower court. very sympathetic supreme court seems to be bothered by this notion that when you start looking at design patents, especially for today's complex
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technology products like smart phones, the kind of all or nothing rule is a real problem. seemingly looking for a middle ground. how do you keep the basically language but perhaps get some new tests that come up short of this all or nothing approach when it comes to design patents? back to you. >> hampton pearson outside the supreme court. hampton, thank you. up next, plus, barry diller join s us in a live cnbc exclusive interview. don't go away. we're drowning in. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high,
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good morning once again, everybody. i'm sue herrera. the supreme court let stand lower court rulings allowing pennsylvania and maryland to keep tens of millions of dollars in a dispute with tobacco companies, the massive 998 settlement in deceptive advertising of cigarettes. turkey prime minister criticizing hillary clinton for comments during the debate, suggesting she would consider giving arms. turkey considers kurds terror t
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terrorists. drone footage purportedly showing widespread destruction of eastern neighborhood in aleppo. blocks of landscape have been reduced to skeletal structures and bombed-out buildings. and sloan kettering says half of all american adults take some type of supplement. there was greater use of vitamin d and fish oil supplements. you're up-to-date. that's the news update this hour. back down to you, carl. >> thank you so much. seema mody is back at post nine. hi, seema. >> that's right, carl. mostly ending lower. a lot of focus on the ftse 100, which surpassed its all-time intra-day high. the driving force seems to be the uk pound, falling deeper
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into negative territory, down about 6% since uk prime minister theresa may outlined her hard brexit plans. earlier today, french president holla hollande adds there can be no negotiatings before then. stocks on the move, big day for europe's luxury sector, lvmh posting better than expected third quarter sales. christian dior, hugo boss, among others, having a positive session. weaker session has been a silver lining for these high-end retailers, the world's sixth largest market for luxury spending. vladimir putin has been making headlines for various reasons, opec production cut yesterday. today, he canceled a planned visit to paris next week amid growing tensions over the syrian
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conflict, demonstrating the pressure building between him and the west. kayla? >> seema mody here at post nine. back to samsung. a lot of people are wondering what is next for the company as it officially and permanently scraps the galaxy note 7. courtney reagan is outside the samsung store in new york city. >> there was a small line of people here before the store opened, 15 or so. some were in line to look into some exchange or return of the galaxy note 7 device, but not everyone. all of the folks were happy with the phone. they were disappointed. the folks we talked to hadn't personally experienced those issues but they were doing the responsible or recommended
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thing, exchanging or returning those phones for another device. not everyone was in that same vote. one gentleman was asking for a refund. samsung wasn't able to help him. he spent $800 on the full price of the phone. samsung said they didn't have the ability to give him that full amount right now. he was going to have to contact them via 1-800 number and send it back in for his full refund. when it comes to the carriers, all of them are offering exchanges or refunds. julia bornsten spoke about this very issue to hear what he is seeing. let's see if we can hear what he had to say. sfwlt i think most people that are used to an android operating system, samsung, prefer that. so the galaxy s7 is selling for us. certainly helping apple but people aren't flocking away from samsung.
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>> be on the carriers best buy, is offering exchanges or refunds for consumers currently holding that samsung galaxy note 7 device or the replacement. back to you guys. >> thank you, courtney reagan. tim long joins us on the phone. good morning. >> good morning. tim, i'm wonder whag sorts of impact you're modeling for this kind of unprecedent ed screw up on samsung's part. certainly others will stick with a samsung phone, others will google. >> there's a lot of moving parts to it. we're still digesting this information. our basic assumption is that the majority of the people that will not be purchasing these galaxy
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note 7s will probably stick on the android operating system. i think for 15 to 20 million, some go to galaxy s7, and some go to other android vendors. there could be impact to the broader samsung shipments. overall, samsung is the same or a little lower. apple probably has to pick up a few several million units because of this. little better for android but certainly a positive for apple as well. >> how long before we know just how deep this problem goes, though? samsung is in the mix of a leadership transition at the very top. they have had problems communicating internally about what to do with this. >> not just because of management changes.
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this is very rare. sometimes you have minor issues with phones and we've never seen anything to this magnitude. it will be a few quarters before we know what the future of the note 7s will be. will they come back with new products next year or not? samsung is left with a bit of a hole. the next major product should be the galaxy s 8, in early 2017. >> result in things like this, not just this time but in the future, too. do you buy that? >> that is possible, carl. the product psych sl short. everyone wants to get the product out quicker, get to
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market faster. there is a bit of a profitability curve. you're more profitable early on. surprising when it happens to a samsung. they're known as one of the best hardware companies in the space, not necessarily software. they have a lot of this technology in-house from semi conductor to screens. they would probably be the least likely one this would happen to but here we are today. >> indeed. here we are. tim long, thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much. >> when we come back, a cnbc exclusive you do not want to miss. barry diller will join us live. dow's down 173.
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coming up on the half time report -- goldman sachs upgrading caterpillar. we'll see it in about 20. >> thanks, scott. virtuous circle conference brings together government regulation to hacking. julia bornsten is there and joins us now with iac chairman barry diller. julia, take it away. >> john, thanks so much. barry diller, thanks so much for talking to us today. >> happy to. >> of course, this is a policy conference. there's been a lot of talk about
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the election. are you surprised by the tone and tenor of the campaign so far? >> if you're surprised, you're brain dead. look what we've been living through. the only thing that i would like is for it to be over because he has lasted too long. and i really hope that the one thing that comes out of this is we will, first of all, say please do not speak of politics for at least another year and a half. although i fear the next hour of the next day, we'll be off to the races again. i think it's such a horrible process we found ourselves in, both the length and -- forget the tenor. but just the length of it. it's like, over, please. >> you've been a big supporter of hillary clinton. why do you think her approval ratings are so low? >> because i think she has had a long and complex life in public life. and i think the media, while
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there's been criticism on both sides, saying that people favor her, favor -- unfavored her. i think she has had such an intensity of media scope on her for so long that if you're out there and you're just listening to this barrage of things, all of which, by the way, is from -- almost all of which is from a critical perspective, it's hard for you to have a reputation of being trustworthy. >> now the comments that trump made that were revealed that he said on tape, those comments would have tanked the career of any ceo. do you think he will bounce back from this? >> oh, my god. i mean, where he should bounce is in to some river. no. how could -- look, i've been saying this from the beginning.
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unlike every other dope who said this will never happen, this will be over soon. he will never win the nomination, et cetera. anything anyone says about this is just waste noise because in this case, he has trumped everything. i mean everything. every expectation. it's just -- it's like an evil miracle. >> less than a month away from the election, what do you think is going to happen? >> i think she's going to win. of course. i mean, could you -- this is the thing that just astounds me, is the idea that that clown, bad clown, could actually be president of the united states. it's so insulting to all of us. so, yes, she will win. >> now moving on to another hot topic here, which is m & a --
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>> yes. >> there's been a lot of talk about twitter. who do you think should buy twitter? >> i don't know. look, i think twitter is a very good nice, not especially gr growing, but not pathetic at all. because a lot of people use it and it's a good advertising business. i don't think it really connects to much else. yes, it has big data. you can use the datea. but all this noise of buying something not for what it does, but for what you think it can connect to, i think, is mostly hogwash. >> one of your companies that i see, vinio. >> yes. >> has been making a push in selling more content. >> yes. >> are you w.h.o. is it going up against, netflix, even facebook? >> i think so. vimeo has hundreds of millions of people coarsie i cowersing t
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every month. but to say you're going up against amazon or netflix is presumptuous. we hope to disrupt a little bit and hopefully will be different than. to just compete head on with anybody, i think, is stupid. so we'll find a vein and we'll follow t we are going to program, for sure. >> another one of your companies that's facing big competition is expedia. you face growing competition from airbnb. what's it going to take to compete with them? >> first of all there are presently like two players. there are people around the fringes but basically there are two players, airbnb and homeaway. we own home adviser. whenever i'm in a discussion with the people of one, i say the other name. they all think i'm, of course,
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stupid. but homeaway is -- it really is not renting essentially the extra room, you know. it's renting the whole place. it's a bit of a different model. i think overtime they'll merge. there's room, for sure, for more than two players. >> do you think regulation could kill the profit potential in that business? >> no, i don't think it's possible. >> is there an area where you're concerned about regulation, which is what the folks here are talking about? >> any area? >> for your businesses. >> well, yeah. i'm actually not concerned so long as we don't add regulations that are, you know, not necessary. and i think particularly in some of the issues that relate to people essentially buying something to actually rent it out to others in a format where that's not really what the people around them do is a
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problem. but i think that will work itself through. >> you've been such a force in the media landscape and now we're seeing this fall nfl ratings decline. there's been a lot of talk about what's going on. what do you see happening in terms of viewing right now? >> immense fragmentation, which is inevitable and will continue. once you break the chain, which was originally broken by the three and then four networks by cable -- once -- which had the ability to put lots of program but not ultimately numbers -- huge numbers of programming through. now the internet has broken that. once you break that, there's no connecting it back together again. we're going to continue to see fragmentation. we're going to continue to see essentially slicier, much more narrowly sliced program being
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watched by formations of 1,000, 1 million, 700,000. >> how big of a threat is cord cutting to the traditional media companies and who is going to come out on top? >> i don't know that you can say at this point everybody who is in the closed system is going to be challenged. everyone who is in that closed loop, whether it be people who own cable networks, people who supply programming. everybody is challenged. and it's already started some. but the creative destruction that will happen by this fragmentation is going to change very many things. i don't think of the establish ed players there's anything more than survival.
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in term fs sustained profit making and stuff, it's not exactly something that you voluntarily dive into for the hell of it. i don't see it industrially. i understand it in terms of some shareholders who think actually the viacomm shareholders are desperate for rescue, would like to go into a better security. but i think it's a very
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pay those extra bills." - every bit of extra money helps these days. we have a retirement fund of our own and i take a draw on it. i don't want to take too much either because i don't know what life is going to bring to me. i get to keep 97% of my rental price. the extra income i get from airbnb has been a huge help. - airbnb has helped me so much financially especially starting my own business. san francisco is such an expensive place to live. the way people work and travel is changing. the guests are now able to stay longer, stay five days, enjoy another day in san francisco and spend more money in the neighborhood. my guests are able to extend their stay and spend more money on activities and restaurants. - the extra income that i get from airbnb has been a huge impact in my life.
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>> time to get to the cme group. rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> thank you, kayla. it certainly seems as though the market is done. ten-year note yields, that is, done. being in a consolidated tight range. virtually in the 150's and low 160's. we've talked about how markets always seem to stay in a congestion area until they don't, and when they start to move away from high volume price levels instead of the attraction like north pole and south pole on a magnet, it starts to rebell, and, indeed, we are in the only phase of global rates brsh they're moving away from high volume dense price areas. there's also another motivation that's more fundamental that's leading to this, but the market was right for it, and that fundamental, of course, is traders, investors globally are questioning policy. they're efficacy, the durability
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of all the policies from japan to even our own monetary policy, and this is all happening at the same time. 2% is drawing the market up, so it's almost as though it's take two. if i look at a ten-year note chart starting on january of 2015 running to today, on my chart what you'll see is right around that red 2% line, actually a little bit below it, you have a lot of bottoms. you have a lot of tops. you have a lot of action. the last significant high on march 11th of 2016 was at 198. >> the will you side for those that are long, and the red
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sighted for those that are short, and the tug-of-war that constantly goes on. long and shorts are always equal. >> this action is getting in the way of central bankers and our own fed as we look at wall street raising the chances of a normalization tightening of second and ten years this november. i do think that there's mounting pressure that will make the percentages much higher. carl, back to you. zoo all right. i'll take it. thank you, rick. when we come back, another check on the markets. all the major indexes down about a percent. dow off around 175 points.
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>> s&p is looking for a floor here. all but two dow components are in the red. apple and ge. apple, you might argue, is a stock-specific story given all the attention we've given to samsung this morning. >> indeed. taking a look at some of the tech companies that have high-tailed recently. cooper and nutanex. nutanex down 14% for the week, and twillia also off that much. i don't know if it's a big company, little company thing. >> some of the losses after its follow on stock offering, but not enough to cancel it out. >> definitely not tech's day today. the nasdaq says biggest decline in about a month. semis, not behaving terribly well. micron, one of the biggest s&p
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losers. sales force also having continued weakness. we're going to watch all that. by the way, three major sbeks have not all closed down 1% in a month. this will be the first time in potentially that long. let's get over to wapner and get the half. ♪ welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. whether the stronger dollar and rising interest rates will crush stocks just as earnings season gets underway. let's take a look at where we stand on wall street right now. all three of the major averages decidedly in the red. just about 1% for the dow. it is 1% for the s&p 50000. nasdaq getting hit the hardest today. with us for the hour joe terra nova, stephanie link, josh brown and pete najarian. it's now at it's highest level since july. interest rates backing up, and it's all causi
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