tv Fast Money CNBC October 14, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
5:00 pm
come next week, we have more on the agenda. and there's -- the information -- if you need it, about how to help with this dairy glut. >> the milk lobby right -- the dairy farmers' lobby, they're -- they're going to accepted you free choice tonight. a lot of free cheese. >> thank you so much for joining us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk, tim seymour, karen finerman, guy adami. earnings season under way. one surging next week. we'll give you the name and how you can profit. and netflix gearing up for earnings monday after last quarter's disaster. is the story about to change on the stock? traders weigh in. and later, martin shkreli, the most hated man in biotech spark another selloff in the space? live to the courthouse. first we start with twitter. shares tanking today after
5:01 pm
salesforce rules out a bid. google, disney, salesforce, all exiting the room. is twitter dead in the water? dan. >> the stock is obviously dead in the water right now, especially if somebody doesn't pick themselves up and buy these guys. the stock was trading for months, most of the year in the teens here. and obviously, a lot of that reporting was all over the place on who was going to buy them. so to me, i don't think there is any huge rush right here. i think there's probably a floor in the mid teens and apprised value for this property. it is a very unique property and someone is going to get it right. i think at the end of the day, people are really discounting the ability of this current management who is, you know, for all intents and purposes, they do know what they're doing. it's going to take some time and initiatives in place. i like what they are doing with live and ultimately, someone will figure it out. >> management may get it right. and i think it's a case where if you think about the fourth quarter, the nfl streaming has
5:02 pm
worked amplified ads is working. guidance -- and i realize they have decent guidance. guidance has been terrible the last couple quarters. i think revenues will be flat, maus up 1 or 2,000. i think a couple initiatives are finally working. i think all you need is some of that to be a driver for this stock. >> why do we think the nfl streaming is working? we know how many people are tuning in, but also know that nfl ratings are on the decline overall. >> that's positive -- >> as a result of twitter streaming? >> let's get back to the sale process one second. i think it's sort of interesting. in that we don't exactly know how long they were for sale. but everyone dropped -- seemed to drop out fairly quickly. >> we need fairly quickly, right? >> there was no process. there was a bunch of journalists speculating on stuff. and then i think the company -- >> did they call -- wasn't there a property investment banking process? >> no one knows. >> why did they drop out so
5:03 pm
quickly? it didn't seem like a question over price and who is going to pay more, a heated auction for this property. they seem to all drop out quickly, with the exception of salesforce, that ultimately did drop out. but why? what did they see there that they didn't like? >> either that or there was really nobody at the table making a bid. and there was, to david's point -- crm, obviously, acknowledging they have ruled it out. so we know they had hadn't considered it. all the other ones, they're only reports. >> it tim's point, the media speculation fueled by the fact twitter made comments. >> comments! >> they did a horrific job. horrific job. >> police were investigating what their options were. >> i think that half this board and half this management don't want to be sold, okay? so i am just telling you -- >> they did say -- they wanted all the bids in by october 27th. so they acknowledged they were up for sale by doing that. >> and maybe the best thing that happened to twitter is that nobody stepped up and bought them. because if they do figure it
5:04 pm
out, i think the -- i think the speaker price -- i think the business could be worth a lot more than the 25 or $26 a share that was being bandied about. i'm not saying i can fix twitter. i can't. i'll say once again, i think it is too valuable a business for people to walk away from. and when they get it right, they're going to get it right in a big way. >> do we have enough evidence jack dorsey is doing the right job, through the fundamentals or sell the company? one is not happening. >> if you looked from a year ago, the initiative totally changed. the go live thing is a thing and they're going to keep adding content and i think it's important. the company went public in 2013, had $660 million in sales. this year is supposed to have $2.5 billion in sales. how many other companies do you know that have grown sales that much, with stagnant growth of users over the last year? so it's a broken model right now and they've got a lot of things going. i think you have to be patient and i don't think there's a lot of risk at this valuation in the mid teens. i know they lose a lot of money
5:05 pm
here. but the sales have been growing at a good clip. if they get anything right like you're saying, tim. >> i think that jack dorsey is doing what he has to do to acknowledge -- biz stone -- people on the board are probably -- those that want to cash out, they may want to cash out for different reasons, and yeah, they have seen a company that at least at one point had an implied market cap of $35 billion. now down to $11. they're a little frustrated. but to say that, you know, he wants to sell, i agree. and i agree with you, guy. why should they sell at this multiple? there is no way -- i think the guidance in the fourth quarter, and i would argue this announcement on the 27th is a very big announcement. because it's going to be about guidance, not -- revenues will be flat, maus will be flat and that will be okay this quarter if the guidance is good. >> do you think that there is a floor underneath the stock? >> i do. look, i thought the floor was -- higher than it is. but i do think there is a floor. wherever that is, i think it becomes -- in the teens. i'm hard pressed to believe the shorts are going to lean to it -- lean into it, given the move we have seen from 24.5 down
5:06 pm
here. with that said, there is another trade on the back of this, and dan is going to completely disagree. we talked about this on monday, the fact -- you're going to see it bounce in salesforce after they walk away. pete spoke about this, as well. valuation is crazy, i know. and the stock has not traded well for quite some time. now that they have seemingly walked away, does the stock continue to rally to november 15 earnings? i say yes. >> one silicon valley legend says he's not at all surprised. roger mcnamee joins us with a dose of reality. roger, great to have you with us. >> hey, melissa, always great to talk to you. >> what do you make of twitter in the enterprise at this point, given it seems like everybody is has walked away from being interested in twitter? doesn't that sort of knock it down a bit? shouldn't there be a discount? >> of course it does. of course it does. i think the issue here is that everybody loves twitter as a product. and i think everybody was
5:07 pm
intensely curious. and with this process effectively what twitter said was, look, we're going to strip buck naked and walk in front of anybody who wants to take a look. and, you know, obviously, these companies have a -- both a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders and their curiosity to find out, okay, what's going on inside twitter? and i think the reality is, the public market has always valued twitter at a level that makes acquisition difficult because of the losses and the dill using risk, even for companies like google. it's -- it's a sort of thing that financially the price is just higher than makes sense for a financial buyer. so i think you're basically stuck with folks who either want it as a vanity project, or somebody who has a management that could actually monetize. and i believe there are people who can do that. i think that their view was, if the stock is at 24 bucks, they have to pay a premium for that. there is no way anybody does
5:08 pm
that. from 15 bucks, 14 bucks, who knows? at 10 bucks, probably a lot more people are interested in this. >> sure. >> i think some day this thing finds a home. it is truly one of the great product innovations of the last 20 years. but i don't think they have have a business model today. i think the current team has shown no ability to find one. so i'm not -- the nfl and these other things are going to change the numbers enough to matter. >> so what if an activist gets involved, roger? >> well, have at it. >> i'm just saying i think the problem with being an activist and investor, what do you have if you win? you get to 10, 20% ownership or something -- enough to actually force them to do something. there has to be a buyer. and, you know, if the price is way too high for private equity, apparently, it's too high for the big public companies whose market caps are large enough to absorb it. i'm going, look, twitter is going to get another chance. to see what it can do. the public market still likes the stock.
5:09 pm
and i mean, yes, it's down 24 to 15. but that's because we've taken the m & a off the table. but this is still a very healthy valuation for companies that generate losses. and so i look at this and go, hey. the team can just focus now. they can get down to it, see what they can do at the nfl, see what they can do with streaming, some of these other things that they're working on. and if -- as the pam panel says, after the next three or four quarters, they have a lot better stored. i think when you take the recent trend lines, if you're a buyer, there doesn't look to be a bottom here. and it's really hard for me to understand why, for example, google would be attractive give the nfl team. they already own youtube. >> roger -- >> it's not that big a deal. >> roger, so let's just say in march we're going to have a snapchat ipo valuing the company at $25 billion, a company that maybe has $300 million in sales this year. maybe $1 billion next year. don't you think that should do something for the twitter valuation? >> actually, it's a great question.
5:10 pm
and when we get there, we're going to find out. i look at snapchat, and i go, i think snapchat is really, really exciting. they have a level of engagement you haven't seen from social companies since the early days of facebook. and it's a video product, so it has a chance to replace television and the nfl when you're aiming for younger viewers. so i can see advertisers be really interested. but even if they do $1 billion next year, 25 times revenues for a company that's losing money at that scale, no matter what the prospects are, that price is not a sustainable valuation. and, you know, so i look and go, i think the world of snapchat, i think the world of twitter as a product. twitter is not yet a viable business model. and snapchat isn't either. and so i just -- i don't see -- just because the public market gets really excited about something for a month or two months, i don't think it's going to be enough to, you know, move the needle for -- for twitter. but who knows, you know? maybe it will be. i'm personally not willing to make that bet today.
5:11 pm
>> got it. thanks, roger. >> have a great weekend. >> elevation partners. coming up, netflix jumping. what has investors so worried ahead of earnings. next, the man who some say killed the biotech. will he spook stocks again? details, next. and big cap stocks look like they could be in big trouble. we'll tell you the names near their 52-week lows and that our traders are running to buy. much more "fast money" still ahead. ♪ audi pilotless vehicles have conquered highways, mountains, and racetracks. and now much of that same advanced technology is found in the audi a4. with one notable difference... ♪ the highly advanced audi a4, with available traffic jam assist. ♪
5:12 pm
with sleep number, you choose the exact firmness and comfort you want - and so does your partner. amazing sleep for all. it's the final days of the columbus day sale, with the queen c4 mattress set now only $1399.98. learn more at sleepnumber.com (gasping) are you all right? i was in a room full of light. you were there. you were financially secure - it was glorious. how do you know that? i work at ally - it's my job to know about finances. what else did you see? did i have a speedboat or anything? toss me back in, i'll check. he's finding out if i have a speedboat! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. negative on the speedboat.
5:14 pm
welcome back to "fast money." julia boorstin. >> reporter: well, melissa, the big question is whether or not netflix will be able to accelerate user growth. after last quarter, the subscriber numbers fell short of estimates, as well as the forecast. the company projecting the addition of 2.3 million new subscribers, 2 million overseas. that's up from subscriber growth last quarter, but still far lower than the year ago period. >> for the stock to react well after the close on monday when they report, they need to put up subscriber growth as no worse than what they guide it for. and then they need to suggest
5:15 pm
that in the fourth quarter, that they can come close to matching the really heroic subscriber growth they have in last year's fourth quarter. and we think that in particular could be a tall order for netflix. >> this earnings report comes on the heels of netflix inking a deal with chris rock for two comedy specials reportedly paying $40 million. now the other hot topic is netflix growing investment in original content, aims to make half its content original, a transition as media giants look at distribution of their own content. it also comes as netflix faces more competition. not just from hbo's direct to consumer option, but also from amazon and hulu, which are ramping up their investment in content, as well. so we'll be watching for color on how netflix's recent originals, including "stranger things" are impacting those subscriber numbers. back over to you. >> thank you, julia boorstin. as mentioned, it sounds like netflix is going to more of an original content company. could netflix be about to have
5:16 pm
its disney moment. more than a year ago, disney reported earnings and made comments about cord-cutters cutting, sending the stock and media sector on a whole into a downward spiral. so will netflix have a similar fate? a disney moment, if you will, in a sense that maybe, maybe this is the earnings period that investors start to really reexamine the bull thesis behind the stock. guy, what do you think? >> could be 100%. and listen, by the way, i've been bullish on netflix so i'm sort of contradicting myself here. the thing that concerns me a little bit, october 7th, reid hastings come out in response to what's going on in china. and he said, you know what, china is not looking that great. of so i'm concerned that maybe he is setting the market up for a bit of a disappointment this coming monday. with that said, july was a disaster that quarter. the stock traded down and held the 85 level we flagged a number of times and it's really bounced pretty nicely since. that's your key support. you've got to wait and see what they say until after monday to trade this thing, in my opinion. if it does rally post earnings, i wouldn't fade t. >> the irony is kind of --
5:17 pm
facebook -- sorry, netflix benefits from the cord-cutting of anything. in some sense, what disney's problem, where facebook should gain the third quarter -- sorry, netflix. it's friday. netflix certainly in third quarter is when a lot of pricing changes went through. it's a strong quarter for them. so they have that as a tailwind. to me, this is a stock as we ultimately talk about the competition is ridiculously high, i can it's getting more and more fierce and the penetration internationally is a big deal. >> i think we use two events together. the chris rock, $40 million and content costs in original programming. this sort of revisits the bear thesis they're going to spend so much money on content. >> and they might. i mean, i was shocked when they went into the content business, and they ended up doing a spectacular job of it. so but i don't know what to make of this. i think it's not so much disney moment as it is a valuation moment in that this is one of the great momentous stocks and years before that.
5:18 pm
and if we see another quarter. it was expensive, but not this kind of -- disney was nowhere close to this kind of expensive. >> true. >> i think if -- it becomes no longer a momentum darling then -- >> let me tell you why i think this quarter is really important, okay? they have this thing, that came from nowhere. it was called "stranger things," dropped in july, became a phenomenon. so when you're talking about does the original content they're spending for, does it translate to subscriber bumps. we know they have had two consecutive misses here. if all of a sudden something like that could get people to go out and do this. so the chris rock thing. they actually outbid hulu and amazon. they may be on to something. we know that reid hastings and i'm going to make you guys fall off your chairs. >> hold on. i'm holding on. >> the other side of this thing. maybe he is thinking like bees owes does then years down the road and believe they can create a content studio, plus the distribution. and so to me, i think it will be very interesting if they see an uptick because of of original
5:19 pm
content. >> let's say that happens. if you believe this is a ten-year or larger story than that oh -- >> they don't have time for that. >> do you own it or hang on to it? that sounded sarcastic. >> the stock is up 20% since july. it's unchanged on the year. if it were to go down in the 80s, you can think about it, probably has some support there. that's all i'm saying. >> dan defending netflix, friday -- what's today? the 14th? >> yeah. >> always about to fall out of his chair. >> the comparison to jeff bezos. >> a lot of people make that -- >> i don't get that. >> no competition. amazon was building bricks and mortar, logistics, infrastructure, while no one was trying to challenge them. amazon has a ton of people in their space. sorry, netflix. like amazon, right now. >> we're going to get a break. still ahead. tim is going to regroup.
5:20 pm
not just netflix reporting earnings net week. the season kicks into overdrive like bank of america, ibm, united, continental, just to name a few. there is one our traders is buying right now. we'll explain. i'm melissa lee, "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.. here's what else is coming up on fat. >> he's back! the phrma back in court today. will his case bring more scrutiny to drug companies? meg remember tell is at the courthouse. plus, lights out for utilities. but a strange deal in the chart suggests now could be the time to buy. we'll explain why when "fast money" returns. mpany data hog. i do the sales, the marketing. i have to do that from my phone. we use tons of data. i really don't have to worry about it 'cause everything is unlimited. i need data and i need it now. it's the end of data limits for your business.
5:21 pm
get unlimited 4g lte data as low as $30 bucks per line. switch your business to t-mobile @work. perfect driving record. until one of you clips a food truck. then your rates go through the roof. perfect. ♪ for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. and if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assist you twenty-four seven.
5:23 pm
welcome back to "fast money." we've got a developing story as thein fahouse martin shkreli answered to a slew of fraud charges. meg. >> reporter: that's right. it was a two-hour sat us hearing ahead of the trial, set to begin next summer for martin shkreli. afterwards, his attorney, normally we see his ben braffman. taking questions from reporters outside the courthouse saying they haven't decided whether to file for a motion to sever the two cases from shkreli and former attorney evan grable, also facing charges here. we asked if they don't rely on that reliance on counsel defense, this idea they were going to say that grable had given shkreli bad advice. what defense will they rely on? >> i don't think martin broke the law. i mean, it's -- the oldest defense in the book. i think he's innocent.
5:24 pm
>> reporter: saying that shkreli did not break the law. and arrested in december 2015, charged with misappropriating $11 million in assets from his old biotech company, in order to pay back investors in his old hedge funds who they allege he defrauded. multiple counts of securities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and wire fraud. a trial date set for next june. we asked if they would consider settling. it was said, no. and shkreli, in his typical, very expressive facial expressions, indicated also that he wouldn't, melissa. so that's the latest for martin shkreli. a lot more before the trial starts next summer. >> interesting. you saw martin shkreli standing next to his lawyer, holding up his phone, which is exactly what he was doing walking into the courthouse. >> can you make your best shkreli face? >> i can't -- >> it's very hard. >> there he is. it looks like he is per scoping the whole time. he does that constantly.
5:25 pm
this guy is a poster child for this issue that -- still going on to this day. the idea of gouging people by increasing the prices on drugs. >> right. well, i don't know if it would have blown up shortly thereafter anyway. but, you know, not a poster child -- or poster person -- >> child works. >> you couldn't have a worse one than what he it and how he did it. and just his manner. >> and take a look at this tweet, senator bernie sanders tweeted out about how he was outraged about a drug price increase put forth by ariad. this is not going away. >> especially in light of mr. trump seems to be imploding, not only does it seem like he's going to lose. now apparently congress can change the, the house can change hands. not great for biotech. forget shkreli aside. that's why you have seen such a massive selloff in biotech this week. >> not good for anybody.
5:26 pm
you can push legislation through, and there is clearly an agenda. i think -- i can this is a very dark time for looking at biotech pricing. but i think actually we're going to get through this -- the valuations matter. >> let's switch gears here. national dessert day. we're going to go around the horn for stocks that offer dividend growth -- dividend and growth. in other words, stocks where you can have your cake and eat it too. huh. tim. >> well, i think the dividend is at apple is my pick. this is maybe not the growth stock it was. but i think the services business is that little growth in a stock that's obviously priced as a defensive, almost consumer staple here. i like the div and i think it's a stock that is growing. >> karen. >> masscard. an old name but a great one. growth there. do you have a little dividend? little. not that fattening. it's a great company. >> dan? >> we're running tight. ge. i'll tell you why after the break. >> oh, come on!
5:27 pm
>> ghee. >> 18 times earnings. 2.2 dividend. the arches, by the way, singing "sugar sugar". >> what's it all about, though? >> don't go anywhere. "options action" starts right after this. miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future.
5:28 pm
5:30 pm
hey, live at the nasdaq market site, the guys getting ready behind me. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up on the show. ♪ it's a good time for the great taste of mcdonald's ♪ >> but it may not be a good time to buy the stock, because mcdonald's shares are pennies away from doing something bad. we'll explain. plus -- >> can you hear me now? >> we can. but investors in verizon certainly don't like what they're hearing. but now might be a buying opportunity. and we'll explain why. . and -- something in the charts that says one sector is a creaming buy. and here's
82 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on