a busy hour and evening. >> debate and cubs game. >> we know you're on a plane during a lot of this. >> yes. >> hopefully you can catch it. appreciate it, guys. as always know that does it for us on "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk, pete najarian, tim seymour, dan nathan and guy adami. american express jumping after hours, while ebay sinks. we'll bring the latest headlines as those conference calls kick off. starbucks doubling down on china. ceo howard schultz moments ago about the big bet. we have the comments. and later, if not just the nfl getting hit, falling sports ratings sending the network scramb scrambling. just how bad he thinks it could get. today's big winner and that would be energy. that sector outperforming as it jumps more than 2%. it's been by far and away the

best trade of the year, and as those stocks soar, consumer staples are selling off. so in a world where investors are hunting for income and appreciation, is energy the place to be? pete, what do you say? >> i still there is room to the up side. i like the way energy is trading, and we get towards 51, some of the news pushing the energy stocks higher. i think it's pretty interesting. you look at the xle today, as a matter of fact, up over 2%. where has been by far the most active area in the options world over the next couple weeks, energy, baker hughes, halliburton. you look at the earnings report, very, very impressive. so do i think it's over for energy? absolutely not. i think we're in a new range and i think right now we're probably in the middle part. i think a little more up side. >> where in energy would you go? >> services, first of all. halliburton the best of breed in that space. schlumberger more global. if you listen, north america spend and margins going higher. and i think these guys are very well positioned. they have the scale to do it.

if you listen to oil traders. i talk to a couple guys. they will tell you the market is much more in balance than people think. minor things like the draw we got will push the market around. i agree with pete, 52 to 62. >> if you look at the xl e-trading at 71, made a series of higher lows and higher highs in the last few months here. it looks like it's about to break out, 31% of that is exxon and chevron. when you look at chevron, five years ago, they did $13 in earnings. you know what they're supposed to print this year? $114. >> halifax half of that, what it was. this is a company that's cash -- >> understood. but we're very likely to see eps grow 100% next year. and possibly 100% the year after. so when you think about that dividend yield and you think about, you know -- how underpositioned investors are, i think exxon and chevron could -- you know, lift the xle easily to the high 70s. >> is your point the company is not cheap? >> my -- my point is, it's not

cheap right now, based on a dollar's earnings and we keep hearing people talk about large integrated earnings on a pe basis, look very expensive. it won't take a lot for them to look cheap again. >> because earnings are growing. >> halliburton, yes, on the eps side, absolutely. revenue side, not bad. you are absolutely paying up for halliburton, i believe, at these levels in terms of valuation. that's okay, because it's probably still room to the up side, given just the momentum in the space. but a name i continue to come back to is anadarko petroleum, and if you look again, the tell for me, they buy freeport mcmoran, it's been off to the raises since. they report on halloween, which for those playing at home, i believe, is october 31st. >> ooh! >> monday. and i think it continues to rally on earnings. you want to take a look at apc. >> what's the importance of that? >> guy knows a lot. >> i just want to make clear -- >> he knows what day halloween is. impressive.

>> talk about it looks a little rich today i thought was a great opportunity to take that off. i think there are beta names. this name hitting 52-week highs, i think that might be enough. maybe there's a little bit more. but i'm willing to take that off and be in some of the other areas, like a marathon, for instance. some of the names where they are still beaten up. they have come off of the lows but i thi but i think there is up side. >> is the move in energy -- is it telegraphing something in the market? a willingness to take on risk in the market? as we are seeing money come out of staples and sort of the bond proxy plays at this point? >> well, i mean, first of all, this is fundamental. i mean, there are things going on. this isn't just rotation because rates are going higher. the entire sector going through a period where you cut -- a lot of companies never better. the costs going down. prices going higher and they actually have more free cash flow. if you look at halliburton, probably a 6 to 8% free cash flow field. the move in utilities, i think is a function of the valuations that could not be supported. energy -- people are still

bearish. that's why it's going to continue to go higher. nobody believes this opec call. >> can we talk about -- you brought up rates. and so rates aren't really going higher. they have gone higher of an a all-time low if you look at the treasury yield. up 45 bips or something like that. on a percentage basis -- the ten-year yield is right about where it was prebrexit in june. and at that point, i think we were pricing in probably the likelihood of two rate increases in 2016 and right now it looks like maybe we get one. and who knows about how many in 2017. so i think that if you're getting off of that yield proxy trade, as it relates to stocks, you -- it may be a little too soon. there is no indication that rates are just shooting up. >> so are we in a scenario in which it may be too soon to get out of the bond proxy plays -- >> oh-oh. >> but if rates aren't going to go higher significantly, maybe the dollar stays capped and that's goldilocks also for energy. >> you said last night, too. >> did i say goldilocks last

night? >> i think so. >> our memory. >> i'll tell you what, guys -- >> so what would you buy? >> attempt to answer the question you originally asked. there is some rotation goings-on. no coincidence johnson & johnson on a decent take today down a percent and a half. procter & gamble down a percent and and a half. i'm not going to get a lot of giddyup in these names towards the end of the year. let me get into something to get a little more bang for your buck, if, in fact, all it clear in the energy space. >> yeah. what would you buy? >> i've got one for you. tomorrow morning, verizon is going to report, and if those numbers -- if they're iphone numbers, wire line numbers, are okay, here's a stock down 1, still outperforming the s&p, 4.4% dividend yield. if the fundamentals are okay, the stock is down 11% from its july highs, that's a stock that could probably work back to the mid 50s over the next few months. >> i think what the market is telling you, people want to find valuations that make sense and actually businesses showing they actually may be accelerating into an environment where there

is cyclicality. pricing power and actually you're seeing whether yields are going a lot higher. dan doesn't think so. i think you're going to see a ten-year 2% by the first quarter. which, you know -- define that what you want. >> part of the rotational trade. sorry to interrupt. how about the financials? everybody has been hitting on these guys, saying, you know what, yeah, it's a low interest environment and when are they going to raise and all of the rest of that. you look at morgan stanley, goldman sachs, morgan stanley's numbers today outstanding. and goldman sachs, the day before, outstanding and all we do is continue to plot our way to the up side. most names still remain very cheap and you're getting a dividend yield. >> which are you in? you're in citi, right? >> citi, bank of america. >> so not the goldman sachs. >> i have goldman sachs, as well. so i'm in some of these various names. goldman sachs, i'm in the options, still there is up side. >> crude having its best day in over a year, hitting levels not seen since july of 2015 but

warning investors this rally doesn't have much juice. publisher of "the gartman letter" on the fast line. great to speak with you. >> great to be spoken with. >> why should we fade this oil rally? >> i think, first of all, take a look at what's going on in i think the most important facet of futures trading and that's the carrying charge. the contango as it's called. in good strong bull markets, what we should see is the back months losing relative to the front months. instead, we're seeing the carrying charges widen as the market goes higher. that's archly atypical. the same sort of activity we saw in the term structure -- this is hard to believe. but when crude oil prices were $140 a barrel, we had the contango widening for several days. we're doing the same thing now. crude is bidding for storage, as i like to say, and that's usually the environment of a bear market, not a bucket. here, anything above 52, $53 for

wti with a $3.50 contango to the one year gives you 55 to $58 for the one-year forward. that's a very profitable level for almost any sort of producer fracking here in the united states. i think it brings a lot of new crude oil online. it brings old wells that had been capped online. and i think it's just going to be very difficult to get the market to move much beyond these levels. >> so what is the down side to the price of crude, and would that still be supportive for oil stocks? >> i think it's going to be difficult to get wti much below $40 a barrel at the same point. so let's say -- and i said this on the show before. i think $55 on the high end for -- 40 to $45 on the low end for spot and makes everybody happy. 45 to $50 might not make frackers extraordinarily happy but most of them profitable and users of energy much happier. so i think that $55 is going to be the top in wti on the spot

price. i think it's going to be very hard to get it much below 40. >> thanks, dennis. >> thanks for having me on. >> dennis gartman of "the gartman letter". >> $55 is a price going into the meeting not acceptable. if they do nothing at $55, oil prices probably go significantly lower. i think swing capacity in saudi and iran is much less than people think. what dennis is saying, $55 a lot of u.s. supply online. i don't think you get enough. $55 is a good number and prices go higher. >> >> let's say dennis and right and you should fade the rally. at what price in oil would you start being concerned about energy stocks? >> it's got to go significantly below $45. and i think dennis said the floor was $45. anything with a low $40 to a high $38 handle, i think is -- reason for concern. but there is nothing right now that indicates we're going to see that. >> yeah. all right. coming up, check out shares of american express. they are soaring in the after hours session. the beaten down stock about to make a turn-around.

we've got the details. plus, tesla shares revving up as elon musk sends out a tweet ahead of its surprise product announcement. what tesla's next big thing could be and why one short seller isn't worried. that's next. and later, not just nfl ratings getting hit. a top media analyst says sports ratings plunge spreading and could be about to get worse. much more "fast money" straight ahead. mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle. and it keeps my investments fully mobile...

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let's get to seema mody. >> melissa, brazil, that's what's in focus. central bank cutting its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 14%. this is its first rate cut in four years, in an effort to kickstart growth. remember, brazil is dealing with its worst recession in 25 years. in terms of stocks on the move, we take a look at the ewz, the brazilian etf, lower by around 1% after hours. still up about 80% year-to-date. and even the brazilian bovepsa, up about 50%, as more investors bet on president item rah's reforms. >> so the central bank cutting rates in brazil definitely some

of the highest in the world, that's attractive and i think you have a case where she said she's dollar terms. the currency, the brl still cheap. i think you stay in this trade. >> starbucks making a big bet on china. the could have knee giant naming a new ceo there, will have 5,000 stores in the country by 2021. take a listen to what ceo howard schultz had to say moments ago on "closing bell." >> starbucks and myself remain very bullish on the chinese economy and specifically the buying power of the chinese consumer. i think starbucks benefits because we have been here 17 years, and as a result of the many years we have been here, we have established one of the most iconic, respected consumer brands. >> so will that work? pete, what do you say? >> i do think it will. i think they're doing exactly the right thing. they have been there 17 years. and i think there is a great opportunity for them to actually do exactly what they're setting out to do, double the store count. an incredible area where they can take advantage. also talking about teavana and

how they'll expand in the pacific region and china. all of that bodes well. i think you still have to figure out what's going on here, though. it seems like things are a little bit slower here in the u.s. than expected. we have seen that stock go from the 60s into the middle 50s. so i do think it's an opportunity here. i own calls in here. i think this stock is going higher. but there is going to have to be -- we have to see some positive momentum in north america, as well. >> you know what this reminds me of in terms of putting a ceo for china, yum brands. >> and -- >> starbucks, unlike -- yum was the whole -- china was the whole story forum brands. china now for -- pete is pointing out north america's problems have been starbucks problems. 5,000 stores by 2021. i think this is a very real story. more importantly, the valuation makes a little more sense. >> really? at 25 times next years' earnings, supposed to grow at 11%, the lowest in six years. sales growth single digits for the first time in six years. this may be a very long transition. that's the other thing about china we know. it's not something you see, you

know, a switch get flipped and then all of a sudden you see this massive acceleration. >> it's not a switch for them. they're there -- in fact -- >> i understand. they can also miss their comps for the last three consecutive quarters, i believe. when you guys talk about yum and what a great thing it was forum, it was great because there was corporate action. they split these things. yum was a disaster in china for -- >> not true. they were growing 20% in china. >> china was great until they had the food safety issue. >> you can't tell me yum wasn't -- >> we'll get the cops and what happened during that thing. >> during what thing? >> of course the food scare was a problem. before that, starbucks doesn't have a food scare and they might. you're saying it's one food scare away from being the ne next yum? >> yum issues in china were china growth. and i think china growth -- >> would you buy starbucks? >> it's funny, dan and i were looking at a chart and he pointed out the level he with just traded down to the other day is the same level we bounced from around the summer of last

year. so in terms of risk/reward, 25 times, i don't think it's rich, cheap, in the middle historically. i think risk/reward sets up finally after 12 to 15 months. they might catch a break on an earnings release. >> i like how dan said at the break. we're going to get the comps and figure this out. >> continue on the break! maybe we'll periscope it. >> i can periscope that. i have the application. >> i'm sure you do in the app store. shares of tesla going into overdrive ahead of its surprise announcement tonight. musk tweeted the exact time out midday saying tesla amount goes live 5:00 p.m. california time. this was after jim chanos laid out what he thinks the problem is on "the halftime report" earlier today. ta take a listen. >> to me, the problem is not delivers, it's production. that's the real problem here, getting geared up from the model s and model x, which are doing

about 100,000, little less, units a year to what they hope for as an initial run rate of 500,000 of the model 3. that's an entirely different kettle of fish. >> he says he is still short tesla. again, this is not a new position for him. >> yeah, no. he's been pretty steadfast about this and solarcity, doesn't like the deal there. let's see what happens there. listen, the stock is not rally into any hype about an announcement. it could be a sell the news just on the chart. pete just said, 200 has been there a lot, lately. to me, you've got to go back five years, look at the up trend there. it's at a pretty crucial level here and been my view you're not going to get a whole heck of a lot of exciting product announcements. now, it's about execution, financial engineering, capital raises. so to me, i don't think the stock is particularly interesting at $200, taking a shot. >> he does say most people are not going to expect what they're going to announce. and most people expect autopilot. >> right. >> which would mean that -- >> we just read about that the other day in terms of other

parts of the world where they don't even like that expression used for what they're doing. so i think there's a lot of headaches that you're dealing with right now. it's about execution. you're exactly right. i think can they execute, can they deliver. they haven't done it yet. will they be able to. >> the latest delivery numbers for the quarter. >> their delivery numbers -- does that build us into believer believing. >> it's not a trend. >> the trend has not been great. >> i think the trend, if you look at the chart, the move from 270 in july to 2015, a nice trend line, slowly lower and, in fact, the delivers will get pushed back and the cash burn will go higher. >> tough stock to short, though. they have thrown everything at this stock to be short and remain short. and it's still hovering around these levels. so my point has been for a while, i don't know who the incremental seller at these levels is. i'll say again, the people that own it in earnest won't sell at 180. they might sell at $100 if it gets there, but ain't selling it here. >> a -- headline -- >> that's why it's at 200. >> trading sideways. but it's -- easier to be long

it -- you sleep easier being long a stock than short a stock. >> really? >> oh, yeah. we used to say -- >> you think it's a short? >> when you short something, it could go to infinity. when you're long -- >> losses are limited. you should know that in the options world. >> tell you what. >> friday night. >> anyway -- >> take down all at once. >> sill ahead, check out shares of american express jumping after hours. what drove the quarter later this hour. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." ♪ you all ready for this >> football ratings are getting slammed and the pain doesn't stop there. a top media analyst tells us why the sport scramble ratings for this year could be about to get even worse. plus -- ♪ the final presidential debate is just a few hours away. >> it's just words, folks. it's just words. >> maybe not. one strategist tells us exactly what the market wants to here.

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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? like? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

♪ >> run actually tv -- can i tell you something right now? having a big conversation on china. >> trying to repair their entire brand! >> oh, that is good news. >> domino's.

welcome back to "fast money." here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. two big after-hours movers. ebay tanking with american express surging. conference calls under way. we'll bring the headlines moving the stocks. plus, the countdown to the third and final presidential debate is on. we've got roughly 3.5 hours to go. cnbc's john harwood on the ground in las vegas with what we can expect. but first, live sports. once thought of as the mvp of the bundle. that notion is rapidly shifting in the declining ratings for both pro and college sports in the u.s. julia boorstin joins us with the

very latest on this story. hey, julia. >> there is no question, sports ratings are suffering. average nfl ratings fell 15% in week six, bringing ratings down 12% in the key 18 to 49-year-old demographic. today the "vanity fair" summit weighed in on what's hurting nfl ratings on his network and others. >> the reasons being given for the nfl being down, one, the election, the news channels are up, there is a lot of activity. two, some of the players, the star players have been hurt. three, fantasy football, people are going to the red zone, which is a great product. we have seal. we will see whether, you know, people question, okay, have the nfl -- have they sliced it and diced it too much. is it too much product out there. >> nfl chief roger goodell at the nfl owners meeting today also pressed for an explanation

of what's driving these declines. >> we don't make excuses. we look at it and try to figure out what's changing. and i think you're touching on a point that i think is significant. which is consumer changes and their behavior and the way they consume media. >> goodell said those customer -- consumer changes driving the nfl to do more deals, offering more content digit tale with content offered with snapchat, youtube, twitter and others. goodell also stressed the majority of viewers still watch on network tv. we'll have to see whether all these digital viewing options end up eating into the core tv ratings. melissa? >> julia, is there any sort of aggregate measure? if you amalgamated all of these various ratings in ways to consume nfl content, does it equal what we have seen in the past? >> does it equal what we have seen in the past in terms of broadcast viewing? >> in terms of total viewers. i mean, can we get a read of how many people total are watching

if we sort of aggregated all -- >> here's what you have to remember. the live streaming of games is happening on some of the broadcast networks' platforms, like their digital platforms. but then also now there are certain thursday night games streaming on twitter and then the content is available on youtube, and on snapchat. that sort of content around the game. that is not live-streaming games. i think what we're seeing right now is a huge impact from political viewing. the overall viewing, even including digital viewing, does seem to be down, because people are simply watching more politics. i've talked to the folks at the nfl about this. and they say, well, if we really think this is due to politics, we shouldn't really expect it to change until after the election. so that's going to be the key thing. after the election, do people go back to watching as much sports as they used to? or is it really an issue of changing consumer patterns? >> right. julia, thank you. julia boorstin. so could this ratings dip lead to problems for broadcasters in the long run? one says yes.

brian, great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me. >> you don't think this is politics. you think this is a secular change. >> well, you know, it's difficult to say. it's absolutely possible that it's because of viewing on political content or people just spending time engaged in political activity for that matter. we really don't know. but i've looked at data now from nielson's respondent level data and there are things we can rule in and rule out. the first point is that total tv viewing over the five weeks -- first five weeks of the season since september 8 to october -- five weeks later, is basically up a little bit, kind of flat. viewing of college football, which accounts for about half as much viewing as nfl football, is a little bit up. it's basically in line with total tv viewing. yet nfl viewing is, in fact, down by about 15%. over that same period of time. so that leads us to say how much

of it is political? it's possible that the marginal nfl viewer decides to spend time watching political content instead of football. specifically nfl football. but i don't know that i'm persuaded by that. here's the other thing that's interesting. not included in my report today. but i was reminded of a data point that one of the networks sent out to buyers. the reach of football actually hasn't changed year over year. in other words, about 150 million people watched nfl football in the first four weeks last year. and about 150 million people watched nfl football this year. over the same period of time. what this means is, the same people, essentially, are watching. it's just they're watching a little bit less. so that's another interesting point for that. >> what -- is there much overlap between the audience for college football and nfl, or are they completely different audiences and so we should look at the decline in nfl? >> that's a really good question. they may be different audiences. that i don't know. a lot more questions are raised

than anything else. something else that's important to note. although i looked at many different demographic segments, and one thing that's pretty clear, there is incremental declines among blue collar audiences versus white collar, lower income versus high income. white households versus black households. and so there's something to be said for the political angle that perhaps that's an audience that is more interested. and perhaps protests are a factor. but it's really hard to say with any certainty. >> so what's your bottom line take on all of this data? it sounds like there is plenty of data to parse through. what's your analysis? >> well, yeah. the main take is there definitely seems to be something going on that is causing a wide-scale decline. because all segments of the population that i looked at exhibited pretty significant declines year over year. so the crappy games hypothesis is plausible.

in other words, the match-ups are not very good, star players are out. and that is probably the biggest single factor. so that probably does reverse. i think that secondary issues like competition with the debates are an issue. that might have taken a percentage point or two away. shifts of viewing among that disgruntled audience, if you will, or the -- may very well contribute to another couple percentage points. >> right. >> we'll see after more data comes out. >> brian, thank you for joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. brian weiser of pivotal. you're intimately familiar with college football and the nfl, as well. >> the nfl down 13% and college football up a half percent. so i think what it really defines to you is you can say election, you can say all these various things. i think what it really comes down do is the players. and the highlighted players. and tom brady was out the first four weeks. peyton manning no longer plalay. new york, chicago, l.a., no one can name the quarterbacks, eastern eli manning. the jets, awful, case keenum,

awful. so when you look at the whole realm of what's going on in the nfl right now, the games just have become that much more boring, too many penalties. all kinds offish ooh use they face. when you look at espn's exposure. in other words, disney, you really do have a bigger college, you know, part of that whole thing. than the nfl. so as much as that is hurting business -- to some degree, i think there is a bit of an offset. >> are you worried about disney, your position in disney? >> no, i think disney has already suffered that we can see that's tangible. the brand, the media, the content is offsetting some of the capable business. on the college level you've got the s.e.c. network and conferences streaming on their own. talk about skinny bundle. that's a lot more interesting to viewers. >> as far as the nfl is concerned, look at the red zone. the red zone is every time an nfl game goes into the red zone, they switch and that guy is amazing, whoever that guy is. that is built for millennials. i don't want to sit and watch a three-and-a-half hour game of jets/bills or something like that.

i want to see over -- >> espn has something i used to be a part of, which is goal line, which is every game at any point in the day. >> we know that attention spans are getting smaller and smaller. and that is -- >> they want a cut. >> days of sitting in front of the tv -- >> guy is a baby boomer, dan is a millennial. >> pete is again x, what are you? >> i'm actually a little younger than you. four days. >> why? >> what's your trick? >> take on media. >> that short attention span. disney reports november 3. we'll talk about valuation, but the trade into disney is wait -- let them report. let's see if they sort out their issues. i don't think you're going to miss it if they report a better number. to me the better play is to wait and see what happens. >> we have an earnings alert on ebay. that stock is tanking in the after hours. josh lipton is in san francisco with the latest. josh. >> well, melissa, remember, ebay had been really on this roll heading into this print that stock had surged about 20% in the past three months. not so much now in the after

hours. a couple different pressure points for ebay. one, gross merchandise volume, gmv, total value of goods sold. $20.1 billion, a bit light for expectations and drilling down into that marketplace gmv growth of 4%, i was just going back and forth with kanters, yousef scully pointing out 4% is in line with his forecast, his point being that's just not good enough after you have seen a run up like that in the stock. also paints a bigger picture. ebay making big fundamental changes in their platform. trying to make it easier for you to find products when you're looking on ebay or using other search engines. so some investors maybe wondering when are we going to see a big material impact of that initiative on gmv. the company's ceo saying, listen, replatforming as he puts it is necessary to simplify ebay to make it more competitive, to make it more relevant. but he said in his words, not like just turning on a light switch. you may be seeing some

impatience on the part of investors in the after hours. final note here on stubhub. gmv growth, 23%. again, the ebay ceo on that news saying that stubhub comps are going to get more difficult, he said, but he says the strategy of ebay of expanding globally, expanding internationally, will in his words serve ebay well in the quarters ahead. melissa, back to you. >> all right, josh lipton, thanks. ebay shares down more than 7%. after hour session lows, practically. >> think about it, the stock up 45% in the last six months. 20% since they reported the q 2 that got people excited. here is the thing about the replatforming. that's artificial intelligence. machine learning, a sort of thing of catering a -- you know, shopping experience more like amazon. 165 million users globally. so at some point in 2017, you're going to see some results from this -- you know, from this replatforming and then you don't want to own ebay, because it trades below a market multiple

16.5 times next year's earning. so if you get hopped up about buzz words like ai, it's probably going to find it in ebay's shopping experience. >> why not be hopped up on amazon and facebook with its marketplace platform? >> hopped up -- >> fired up. >> we don't say terms like that any more? >> in the red zone. >> speaking of ebay and hopped up, kind of liberating. >> ebay of latin america. >> they have been selling -- ebay of latin america, this is more than just a funny name, a company growing. their total product line and tpv now greater than their gmv. it means these guys are growing. the stock on a tear, and ebay has been selling to the company. >> melee. >> check it out. >> comes out melee. >> lingo. >> still ahead, american express soaring after hours but trailing rivals. master card and visa this year. could tonight's report be just what the stock needs to turn

things around. and traders expecting a more than $20 billion shift in market cap for one mega cap tech stock tomorrow. we'll tell you what it is and how to play it. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide..

welcome back to "fast money." i'm kayla tausche at the new york stock exchange where american express just posted a beat for its third quarter earnings. here are the highlights from the conference call that is currently under way right now. first, the costco portfolio in the third quarter officially and fully rolled off, so consumer revenues in that department of the business down 26%. that's largely in line with what analysts were expecting. loss provisions or the amount of money the company is setting aside for bad credit, and the company's operating expenses down by 3%. with all of these levers working the way to the company wants, it was able to not only raise its guidance for 2016, but also affirm its guidance for 2017 with the better line of sight into how the economy and its own business will be operating. they said loan growth is continuing to outperform after the costco portfolio rolled off. they are seeing credit health continue in the direction that

they like. and also, of course, department of justice lawsuit that got thrown out in the quarter is a helpful thing for the company, as it moves forward with its merchant relationships. cfo, jeff campbell, did take some time to talk about the macro environment, talking about interest rates, talking about corporate spending, and some of these things the company can't control. and here's what he had to say about that. >> u.s. billings growth was also impacted by lower gas and airline ticket prices. which remained headwinds across our u.s. businesses and had a similar impact to the prior quarter. and finally, consistent with prior quarters, spending by large corporations remains weak with billings declining year over year, reflecting the slow growth revenue environment and cost efforts being undertaken by many large companies. >> many large companies, including amx itself, which has targeted $1 billion in cost cuts

on its own budgeting. one place that it will not be cutting costs, though, and they are talking about this heavily on the call, is marketing. they expect significantly higher marketing and promotional spend, especially in fourth quarter, as they try and turn this corner and rebrand themselves not only here in the u.s., but globally to get that growth to return to the business. melissa? >> all right, kayla tausche, thank you very much. that earnings giving american express a bit of breathing room. credit card stocks over the last three years, while visa and master card has soared, american express lagged considerably, calling 24% and the credit card company traded lower on the day, nine of the last ten times it reported earnings. looks like it probably won't happen this time here. but is american express about to make a comeback? >> you know what, with this quarter, i think you can say -- it's the best quarter they have reported since the beginning of 2014. the costco thing is a long time ago now. let's sort of get over the

costco miss or the -- losing the costco business. for the first time now in two years, they reported a quarter that smoked every expectation, guided higher for the year, guided higher for the next year. 11 times forward earnings, good balance sheet. so can you own this stock? yes. are they as good a company as master card and visa? no. but they final might be able to catch up a little bit. master card i believe on the 28th, visa on the 24th. >> aren't these numbers better because revenues were lower but expenses -- >> a wee bit lower. >> '17 is in line. i think the positioning was so negative coming into this quarter. you know, this is what you're going to get. >> the quarter was incredibly low. and their profits still down 10% year over year. so the bar is so low right now, thesh able to get over it, i don't think you want to chase the name either. >> my point, i think you're 100% right. but you're talking about where people will start talking about american express and be able to

justify it for the first time in a while. it could roll over again tomorrow. >> i think the card issuers are in a much better place. microsoft reporting tomorrow after the bell, traders expecting pretty big moves. >> dan, why don't you make your way over to the smart board? >> yeah, yeah. go ahead. >> a little bit of a direction for me. all right, so the stock reports tomorrow after the close. options market is implying about a 5% one-day move in either direction. that's shy of the fourth quarter average of 7%. 7%. that's how much it's moved on the day following earnings in the last year. that's a crazy amount of volatility, if you think about it, for one of the largest market cap companies in the world, $445 billion. the ten-year average, 4.5%. one of the things that's interesting about 5% in either direction, when you look at this consolidation, that would be a new high up there or down near support in the stock. looking all the way back to 1999, y2k, the all-time high

59.97, 2.5% -- $2.5 gets you back to an all-time high. >> thanks, dan. check out the full show "options action"s, friday. dan will walk and talk once again. coming up, just hours away from the final presidential debate. john harwood on the ground in las vegas. with what we can expect. hi, john. >> will this third and final presidential debate be the one where they don't talk about personal dirt, but they talk about business focus issues, like immigration, debt and entitlements? we'll talk about that right after this break on "fast money."

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welcome back to "fast money." the final presidential debate takes place tonight, 9:00 p.m. eastern in las vegas. john harwood is there with a look at what we can expect. hey, john. >> hey, melissa. this debate moderated by chris wallace of fox has topics on the list, including things like debt, entitlements, immigration. but if you look at the past debates as a guide, it's going to likely be much more focused on personal issues. in the first debate, hillary clinton tried to bait donald trump on a series of personal issues, and he spoke very broadly about the need for change. >> why are you just thinking about these solutions right now? for 30 years, you've been doing it, and now you're just starting to think of solutions. >> do the thousands of people that you have stiffed over the course of your business not

deserve some kind of apology? >> now hillary clinton had even more ammunition at the second debate, because that 2005 tape of donald trump making lewd comments about women had come out. she used that against him and he came back hard, again, in personal terms. >> he has said that the video doesn't represent who he is. but i think it's clear to anyone who heard it that it represents exactly who he is. >> if i win, i am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation. because there has never been so many lies, so much deception. >> now, this is a situation where donald trump is fighting from behind. look at the average of national polls. she's got a 7-point lead in the real clear politics average. 46-39. that's very significant. and as a result of that, i would

expect donald trump to go hard after her, and there is a broad category on the list of issues. that is fitness for the presidency. that's one that both candidates want to talk about, guys. >> all right, john, thank you. john harwood in las vegas. how will next month's election impact the markets? ed, great to speak with you. your year-end s&p 500 price target is 23 to 2400, is this predicated on either candidate winning or losing the election? >> well, i think you cut me off by a year. 2300 to 2400 as of next year. >> okay. next year year-end. >> yeah, i'm in the going to push for the election year -- that would be a melt-up situation. it's -- it's remotely possible, but very remotely possible. i mean, the market really has been reacting to fed policy and to central bank policies around the world. it's done remarkably well, despite washington. and i'm kind of crossing my fingers and hoping that will be the same case, no matter who

wins come november 8th. >> are there certain sectors you're sort of shying away from now based on the elections? >> well, i think everybody -- knows that health care, particularly pharmaceuticals and biotech, might be challenged if hillary clinton wins, because she's more likely to mettle with pricing than donald trump. on the other hand, both candidates are viewed as being likely to spend money on infrastructure. we've tried that once before in 2009-2010 and found out we weren't shovel-ready but that doesn't mean the market might not anticipate some of those stocks doing well. >> so ed, just to be clear, 23 to 2400 it year-end 2017. does it matter in your view if it's a hillary clinton white house or a donald trump white house for that view to hold? >> at this point, no. but i think the market is going to continue to maybe be listless through at least the december

fomc meeting, no matter who wins. and then no matter who wins, the market may take a wait and see attitude to see how hillary actually shapes up her government and how congress -- the balance in congress being democrats/republicans. trump is the wild card. hillary, i think everybody views as status quo, and, you know, nothing much changes for the market. but it could very well be they're both bad -- they could both be bad for stocks. but, again, i think the politicians generally have been bad for stocks. >> all right. ed, thank you for phoning in. ed yar denny. quickly, comment in terms -- you've been making a point the bait is important. >> i would say this about phrma and biotech. i think they're going to rally, no matter what. >> really? >> i think there is so much bad news that are priced into them. i don't think hillary clinton is the lefty democrat that a lot of people think she is. >> the buying opportunity now.

>> i think you see how they act at the end of the year. i think it could be a sort of dogs of the dow sort of thing. >> don't forget, you can watch the entire third and final presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald trump right here on cnbc. no need to turn the channel. tonight, 9:00 p.m. eastern. next, "final trade." stay tuned. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.

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time for "final trade" around the horn. pete. >> earnings season in a very difficult environment. who has knocked it out of the park at the financials. look at b.a.c., giddyup. >> tim. >> he's excited. schlumberger, i think the more diversified global play is working. stay with this. go with this one. >> dan. >> yeah, ebay. if you see it in the high 20s, i think it looks interesting. >> it was no enthusiasm -- i like -- >> total! >> really fired up. >> in the "final trade" -- last 40 seconds of the show. >> disappointing. >> disappointed in you. b.a.c. -- and you gave it a -- giddyup! >> i'm all over it. >> huge buyers. >> i don't think there is a chance it's above 18. >> good luck -- >> between now and the end of the year. >> now that you've criticized -- >> we rarely mention, but aph, look at the earnings.

listen to the commentary and watch this stock levitate. >> how did he do? >> that was nice. >> what? >> nine seconds! >> giddyup! >> i'm melissa i'm melissa lee. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. you knew it eventually had to happen. as we get more and more signs that hillary clinton is pulling away from donald trump in