across the street in the exchange, jpmorgan headquarters, a popup halloween store. that just is wrong. i'm sorry. i'm not against halloween. but that's just wrong. >> that's a big business. those things get lines around the block. >> sleep well tonight. >> my pleasure. mike back with us. that's it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm mel lee. traders on the desk, pn, steve grasso, dan nathan. we have a technician who says no matter wins, we will see a rally into year-end and drama at espn conflicting numbers about the health of its flagship franchise. we will tell you what it could mean for disney. and later, passive investment one of the fastest growing trends in the market and a top jpmorgan strategist says it could be one of the biggest threats to the market. he will explain.

first, we start off with what should have been a huge day for the markets, up or down. we've got tens of billions of dollars of baker hughes and ge, century link and oil sinking, its worst day in more than a month. none seemed to matter because of one thing. the u.s. election. the polls are tightening as we head into the final week of campaigning. so with everything seemingly on hold, we ask, no matter who ends up in the white house, what should you be buying this week? what are your win/win bipartisan election trades? buy-partisan. b-u-y, pete. >> my list would be what's been performing most recently and that's going to be technology and financials. if the financials are doing well underneath the circumstances that we have in the last six or eight months or so, with no change in the interest rates, and they continue to show some strong results, like they did this past quarter, i have to stick with the financials. i like where they're going. when you look from a valuation perspective or book value, citi,

bank of america, jpmorgan, wells fargo, gets more and more interesting. i'm not ready to jump in there yet. but a u.s. bank, some of the other big regionals. that area, as well as when i look at technology, mel, specifically looking towards the chips. and i look through this earnings season so far, about 58% of earnings season so far of the s&p 500. you look at the chip stocks. for the most part, other than intel missing on the data center, i'm looking at a lot of names doing very, very well. and applied materials today, huge paper in there, tells me that's not over. i think we could see an extension of that, as well. >> grasso? >> i'm going to -- you're not supposed to do this. i'm going to push back on his financials. i think you would have to -- you're going to have major headwinds with regulatory issues. >> don't we already have those? >> you're going to have even more. you're going to have hillary who pushed more left than she is with elizabeth warren and donald trump probably still on the same side. negative for banks, as well. >> i went with united rentals. both candidates are actually going to push some sort of a stimulus plan. >> infrastructure. >> infrastructure. everyone talks about it.

frusk. they're going to build, the roads are a mess. united rentals. i think that one could still move higher. >> what's the bigger driver for financials? rising interest rates, probably what we would have under either administration for a stronger regulatory environment? >> stronger regulatory environment. that's the bigger driver. even if the fed decides in december where they're going to raise rates, we are so far from a rate-hiking cycle. we were supposed to have four rate hikes by now. we have one, maybe one-and-a-half, at this point in time. so i don't think we're anywhere close to have a rate hiking cycle. i agree with grasso. stay away from the financials, there's just too much risk there. >> burn. >> yeah. i'm feeling you guys. i don't mind being on the other side of the trade. >> go. >> i think it's going to break out. >> i say take some to the bank. i don't think it works after the election. >> don't you think it's worth stating, though, that ms. clinton, obviously one of the biggest criticisms she's gotten from the opponent, she's a friend of the banks. so i don't see elizabeth warren

doing a heck of a lot of damage. >> listen to you. >> what about bernie sanders' constituents? >> i hear you. >> in '17, these guys are out. >> i hear you. >> i don't think she's a real democrat. and the other thing i'm going to tell you right now, i think no matter what happens, i think large cap phrma and biotech stocks go up. they have been so beaten up -- >> are going to go up. >> so to you. >> let's say a clinton victory. >> yeah. >> i think it could be messy for a little bit. and then i think this is going to set up pfizer and saw big paper in there today. >> giddyup. >> do you think america is going to let her get away -- >> what's the thesis? dan. what's the thesis? >> listen, the thesis is pretty simple. there's a lot of bad news in the stocks. and if you look at the dogs of the dow sort of situation, look at some of the yields, and how bristol has been beaten up. look at pfizer. i think you're probably going to see some combinations in 2017. people get bullish into the

year, into the start of the year. and then look at the xpi, the biotech business, gone from 70 to 56 in the last month and a half or so. and i think that thing pops too. >> you know, i have to say, we're hearing on all those conference calls talk about drug pricing pressures. we heard from the group on friday and today cardinal health. maybe we're at a point where everybody is already assuming. >> maybe. it's built in. that's -- >> can't be built in. it's the only issue. only pushback i have for dan, it's the only issue bipartisan. there's only one issue in this whole election cycle that both candidates agree on. it's biotech pricing. phrma pricing. health care pricing. it's -- >> i say it's health care, biotech gouging. i don't think it's necessarily pricing. >> how do they know? >> because when you start looking beneath and say where they really want to attack, they want to seem to go after the folks and makes some sense. the very unique drugs that have an incredibly high price -- >> did they against the other ones, though? >> the whole sector got sold

off. >> i think the opportunity is merck is getting sold off for the wrong reasons. i think there are certain names in biotech that are probably getting sold off for the right reasons, because their products are very expensive. you look at a merck, pfizer, some of these names. bristol-myers, maybe. they had struggle. you look at some of the drugs in the pipeline of a merck, for instance, very good news. and still working on alzheimer's, which is just like a cherry on top if things start to move to the up side. >> i like the fight you guys are having on this desk. anybody a buy? >> no, here's the thing. it's not just -- they're not just going after the gouging. they're going -- look at what's going on in california, prop 61. they're talking about all drugs on that. let's take the other side. let's talk the affordable care act. people are going to get massive, massive bills next year. so now how were they going to pay for these drugs? they're not going to be able to. we have a huge problem with the health care sector. do we get a pop? maybe. go get a trade on that. for a long-term type of thing, after the election, you still

sell. >> i don't think that was the question, a long-term sort of thing. it is what was going to happen -- >> i think it's a win-win through the election. >> what is the win-win? did you give us -- >> bk's turn. >> how could it be a win-win when you saw donald trump being elected, biotech ran. it's not a win-win. it's got to be a binary instance. people still look at hillary as negative for biotech. we saw it last week. >> we're going to know in a few weeks. >> i'll give you my pick. my pick based on the fact we saw last week when it was potential -- when the e-mails came out, you saw the markets sell off. volatility. that means that if trump wins, we will likely get a selloff based on what happened last week. that also means the market is pricing in a hillary win. so what happens next week? you sell the news. what happens when people sell the news, and/or something else happens? market goes down, volatility goes up. you buy cme. that's going to benefit from all the volatility.

>> just -- >> reverse of the reverse. >> right? see how i did that? >> exchanges. >> drop the mike, bk. he's out. >> let's take a look at the market here. slow and bad. best describes october. quietly, the s&p 500 just had its worst month since january, falling nearly 2%. our next guest says buy this dip. let's go off the charts and find out why. chris veron, over at the smart board. chris, what are you looking at? >> eight weeks left in this year. and i want to talk a little bit about how the first ten months of the year tell us about the last two. so what we did today, we looked at what is the market tend to do in november and december in january through october are positive. you tend to get returns of nearly 4% in november and december. conversely, when the market is down, heading into the last two months of the year, the last two months of the year to not be very good. we like the setup that the s&p is up 4% so far year-to-date. historically, led to better than

average returns in the last two months of the year. now, obviously, the election next week factors into this. so what we wanted to do, look at every election year, all the way back to 1950. and what you see is how the s&p tends to bottom somewhere around the last week of october, and rallies into year-end. if we use 2012 as an example, the election was november 6th, the market bottomed november 15th and rallied very sharply really through january. so we like the history here. and lastly, i would just note, what strikes us, really, is that the street has taken off a lot of exposure. the streak right now actually running net short s&p futures. we don't think people are positioned for a rally. history says you tend to get one. that's how we want to play it. we think 2050 to 2075 is very good support and we certainly want to be a buyer of any preelection volatility over the next week or two. >> oh, it's interesting that little short position that people have. should we invite chris over? you guys have questions? >> absolutely. >> come on over.

ashley will bring over the chair. ♪ >> so, chris. >> yes. >> the only issue i battle with, is that same old phrase, this time it's different. we have the fomc, opec. a bunch of different issues, the election. we have three issues that to me have the ability to run up into, be sold after the fact. so you know, buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. that leaves us a wide berth for ke december. that's what i'm battling with. you're talking about historic data and you're talking about this year specifically. >> what strikes me, and someone talked about it. we have seen ship stocks do well, banks do well. we have seen transports. even today trade well. that to me is leadership that suggests underneath the surface, things are not as bad as the headlines might suggest. also, what happened this week? copper acted better.

aluminum. industrial metals. a risk on environment, not a risk off environment. i'm morin dined to use weakness as an opportunity. >> do you get concerned with oil? particularly today. almost 4% on wti. does that do anything to your thesis? >> i think one of the most important things for markets in general, stocks have generally decorrelated from oil over the last several months. we're not every day look at the tick on oil. >> not the last couple weeks. totally correlated. >> when we think about in context where we were 12 months ago, every move lower was associated with a big drawdown in stocks. that's not the case the last several months. i'm more inclined to look at that as noise and instead look to the industrial metals as a better signal on growth. some of the cyclicals, european banks, european autos. japanese banks, all acting better. i don't want to ignore that here. >> chris, thank you. chris cerrone, buying a year-end

rally. left side of the desk. what say you? >> listen. there's a strong seasonal trend. >> would i buy the dip? probably not. i look for other places, buy gold or something. those are better trades. those have been better trades all year. so why wouldn't i stick with that? >> under most scenarios where hillary wins next week, buy dips into year-end. give been saying this for months now. don't think it's going to set off palpitations in the market in 2016. 2017 is another -- it's just a whole another thing. because at the end of the day, if she wins, doesn't, and a resounding sort of way and there is no contest or anything like that, i think we're probably okay for a bit, especially if people start thinking about fiscal stimulus and what that means as we start raising rates. i know it's going to only be two in two years. to me, i don't think it's going to be panic time in 2016 if she wins. >> i don't know how -- we're living in this prism of elections. and i think we're going to get back to focusing on no global

growth. anemic -- we're in a bubble, maybe this slight growth here. there is no growth around the world. i think we're going to get back to focusing on that. and that's a negative story. >> i think the best opportunity to piggyback on top of what dan is talking about -- lieutenant, you've been phenomenal. buy the stocks on the dips. creates great opportunity. and we are going to see more volatility. and i think that's what chris was talking about. hey, look, if you see this volatility at a lower level, you want to buy it into this. i think the reason he's saying that, we all think there is going to be a spike. either way, with he get a spike in volatility, because with donald, it's uncertainty. with hillary, the problem is, people are still very uncomfortable about exactly what's going on behind the scenes, whether it's the fbi or whatever. so even on a win, i think there is some concerns out there about where she really stands. how far left, how far does she actually come to the center? all of those things pop up volatility, gives you a great opportunity to look for buys and use that volatility at the right time against your -- >> uncertain no matter who wins. >> i think so. donald much more of an uncertainty. >> with the s&p up 4% right now, if we do have -- a week from

now, if things feel pretty okay, as far as the political landscape, i think they're going to close higher than where we are right now. >> okay meaning a hillary clinton win. >> yeah, between now and the end of the year. there is no reason to sell them off. >> but -- after the election, we might see that volatility. >> the only reason -- fomc. that is factored in -- that to me is the only reason. >> if they were hawkish in december, then you have reason to be worried in january. >> i would look more towards oil. >> all right. coming up, don't look now but a lot of high-flying tech ipos are crashing. why it's got one of our traders very nervous. plus, more drama in espn and the mouse house calling foul on nielsen. could the sports network be in better shape than we think? a special report. and why one of the fastest growing trends in the market may turn to the biggest threat to your portfolio. much more "fast money" still ahead.

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welcome back to "fast money." some of the biggest tech ipos feel like they may be falling from grace. check out these names. all off their recent highs. nutanix, twilio, square down 30% and take a look at line down 21%.

is this a warning sign for the rest of the market, dan? >> here's the thing. you have to think about the context of risk on, risk off. so at some point, all those names are up substantially from their ipo prices but all off in a very short period of time. that's something worth keeping an eye on as we wake up and see a $10 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion m & a, two contrary. 94 is half of what we did in 2016. just to get -- or 2015, just to get back to that level, a lot of wood to chop. it's important to keep an eye on that, just for that sort of risk-on vibe or whatever. we're going to have a down year in ipos. >> you bring up an interesting point. they're still up from their ipo price. and then these -- everyone in this desk, the cost to borrow these, when they come out ipo, you can't short the stock. so the cost to borrow comes in. the stock is shorted. the stocks come in. but you have to also look at

mutual funds. a quarter of all mutual funds was their fiscal year-end today. they own these. so they own a lot of these new issues. >> but they're not long-term positions. so they buy them and then they sell them. >> so you don't think it's a sign of a anything for risk-off. >> you have a lockup expiration on twilio. so you see that in december. that's the one -- >> you short it -- >> you keep an eye on maybe in the next month or two and becomes a buying opportunity. >> in twilio -- >> 50%. >> a little bit of concern there. i think, quite honestly, people start looking at these markets, and in this market that we're in right now, and you see people taking money off of the certainty areas that they had before in terms of those -- the dividend players and all the rest of that. and all of a sudden look at a twilio and whether do these guys make money, and are they going to grow fast enough where i am comfortable about it. we have already seen the selloffs where you have great growth still, but is it great enough to hold on to a 50/60

multiple. you look at twilio or other names, they don't have a multiple or make money. when will they is the big question. >> in terms of risk op, i would be concerned with something really frothy where you saw double and triple the ipos coming out that were really, really low quality. these are fine quality, but you're not seeing that kind of froth and that bubble type of thing. i would say -- actually, some of these -- i might take a look at buying. maybe a twilio at -- >> twilio at $70 a share might be on the frolthy side of things. >> it could have, yes. >> all right. next up, our move of the day. check out shares of the united states oil tfc, more than 3%, oil under pressure as nonopec members became skeptical. ahead of next month's meeting. beaker, quite a decline today. >> yeah. big decline. so the whole oil rally has been based on two things. you saw number one saudi arabia change to oil minister, which meant they were changing the way they were looking at the market. they were going after market --

i'm sorry. abandoning market share and rather going for a higher price. second part of the rally was based on the fact that they were going to cut production. and that they were going to have some kind of agreement. agree to agree. it looks like that is kind of falling apart at this time. you have to be worried. that's what happened today. the rally looks like it's on hold. it's too early to say, are we going to get back to that saudi arabia trying to gain market share and just dumping on the market. i think it's too early to say that. definitely watch the space, because we're talking about black swans. this is certainly one of them. >> do we have an upward bias to the price of oil in that saudi arabia is 100%in seat belted to get the price of oil higher? >> i think there is. i think there is a floor under there. i thought it was closer to 50. it doesn't look like that. we'll have to see. >> they have been incentivized to get the price up for the last 30 years. even if opec does not disappoint with their words, they disappoint with their actions.

iran, iraq, russia. oil is moving lower ahead of this meeting. that's a very bad sign. >> oil. >> my big thing with oil, i think we continue to get these higher ranges. and i think we're back into a higher range. i think we're somewhere between that -- maybe call it 51, 52, 44 on the low end. i think these ranges continue to raspette up. because of that, i tend to hold on to a lot of different energy names. still, we continue to see paper coming into the energy space. so i think that is still some up side to come. >> still ahead, shares of valiant and reports of a criminal probe tied to the company. we'll bring details later this hour. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> here's what disney and nielsen are doing now that ratings for football are falling. and it could underscore a broader trend in media. plus, an old-school industry is suddenly hot again. >> apply as close to the lashes as possible. and remember, black can only be

worn by girls with very black hair. >> and it's a decidedly new-school technology that's helping it grow. we'll explain how social media is sending makeup stocks higher. when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing october on a down note. all the major indexes the worst month since january when the dow clocked in its biggest losing streak in five years. and crude, its worst since september 23. valiant shares tanking on reports the company's ex ceo and

ex cfo are the focus of a criminal probe. much more on that developing story. plus, new drama at disney's espn with conflicting numbers thrown around. we'll tell you what it could mean for mouse house earnings and its shares. our next guest says passive investing could cause aggressive losses for your portfolio. we are joined from london to explain why. great to have you with us. a lot of people are paying attention because of the sheer number of dollars allocated to the etf world. what change does that pose and are there specific etfs you see are the most dangerous? >> the main implication is that retail investors are more important players. the investor sentiment, there is not cushion from the cost

balances that used to accommodate the flows from retail investors. so the fact that retail investors tend to be more sorting their investment horizon, which we we can see in surveys says that markets will become more vulnerable to these frequent swings, if you want, but retail investors, relative to the past. the main implication of that is that we are likely to see more amplified up moves at the down moves in markets done in the past. and it's not only because retail investors tend to overreact on the way up and the way down, but also because during up trends, it's hard for active investors -- active monitors to

perform. so there is even more money flowing into passive vehicles, amplifying the up trend. on the down trend, the opposite is happening. active investors tend actually to outperform passive vehicles, and then retail investors with drawing money from these passive vehicles. >> isn't there a -- in terms of this thesis, nick, isn't there a certain assumption that every dollar allocated to an eff or passive investing when it really could be large institutions or hedge funds theusing these vehicles as hedges to their portfolio or a way to exercise their point of view in the markets? >> yeah, that's right. i think for etfs and our calculations, it's owned -- half owned by the institution and investors. but these passive vehicles are not only confined to etfs. there are quite a few mutual

funds that are predominantly investment vehicles for retail investors that are also passive. >> hey, nick, brian kelly. go ahead. so i am curious on these vehicles, so you're saying this could be a danger to the market. so the retail investor out there watching this show, what should they look for to -- for that? what's the warning sign for them? >> i think the warning sign is sentiment indicators. you see sentiment by retail investors deteriorating, that's a warning sign, because actually, that could have much bigger upticks than in the past. >> have we seen, nick, evidence of this thesis playing out in the market so far? for instance, is there is a lot of talking when watching the rise of bonds as well as bond proxies in the stock market. the dividend yielding etfs,

these low-ball funds and then saw swift downward drawdown in these funds, as well. was that sort of an example that we can point to as what you mean? or can you give us an example? >> i think the -- you know, correction of generally it's very much amplified by retail selling. it was not necessarily closed by retail investors in the first place. but it was clearly amplified, because the selloff of these passive vehicles -- again, not only etfs. it's also passive vehicles that belong to the mutual fund space, amplified in january, february selloff. >> okay. nick, thanks a lot for joining us. we appreciate it. fascinating stuff. nick was joining us from london. and jpmorgan.

so do we buy what he was selling? in terms of the amplified moves in the market because of the role of these passive funds? >> i think you brought up a good point. a lot of this could be hedge funds that are actually active managers that have to hedge away from them on the etf side. when you look at the passive vesting, going on for years, it's about the hedge funds. not outperforming their index. only about 15% are actually outperforming. so until that switches, and what he said was true, once the market goes into a sell, a downward trend, that's when active outperforms passive. >> this underscores a trend we have already been seeing, and that is asset managers are in trouble. >> right. so you look at some of the bigger ones, blackrock, t row and janice, all have had a tough time. their fees are coming in. the other thing that we have underscored on this show is that when the money comes out of the hedge funds and goes into this passive, you no longer have those short positions that hedge funds typically have to cushion

the blow on the down side. they're not covering on down day. so i think that's what nick is talking about where you can get these accelerated moves, because there's no short position to be covered. >> should i be scared? i'm sitting at home, i've got my portfolio. should i be scared? >> no. no one is scared. just buy the dip, right? so, listen -- >> being sarcastic, viewers. >> my take-away about this whole conversation, goes back to the banks. there is a bigger headwind for banks that have asset management, is there a large part of the revenues. fees are going down. when you think about it, etfs, whatever the vehicles are, fees are getting compressed, so guys who charge the fattest fees -- >> wouldn't assets in that part of the world go up. if that's the only game in town, you have to decide, which actually compensates. so if assets are going up, smaller premium on those assets, it's a net-net zero game. but seems to me, passive is the way to go over active. >> one name that has tripped up a lot of active investors is valiant. the stock getting some more bad

news today. meg tirrell in the newsroom with the latest in this saga. >> the saga is right. valiant closed down 12% today on this news from bloomberg news that a criminal probe into valiant is now focusing on former ceo, mike pearson and former cfo, howard shiller. potentially bringing potential accounting fraud charges within weeks. now, that did hit the stock by about 12%. it is rebounding a bit after hours. the company came out with a statement, confirming this was an ongoing investigation that had already disclosed saying, quote, we are in frequent contact and condition to cooperate with the u.s. attorney's office for the southern district of new york. we do not comment on rumors about investigations. and cannot comment on or speculate about the possible course of any ongoing investigation. now, the "wall street journal" had impressipreviously reported it may be among the most serious facing valiant, but certainly not the only legal proceeding valiant is facing. a dozen on its hands. a few of the legal probes disclosed in its most recent

10q. this weighing on valiant stock so much, some folks wondering about the impacts on its ability to potentially refinance debt, restructuring under the new ceo, joe papa. a lot of these probes focusing on the specialty pharmacy, philidor, which valiant has cut ties with. clearly the impacts of that relationship lingering. we did reach out to the attorneys for shiller and pearson, no longer involved with the company. pearson's declined to comment. shiller not gotten back to us. >> do we know exactly what they're probing, meg? >> it sounds like it's a potential accounting fraud charges related to this relationship with philidor. beyond that, we're not completely sure. and that has been the source of a lot of different legal investigations. others look into their pricing, into their patient assistance. they're dealing with this just from all sides. >> all right. meg terrell, thank you. >> thank you. what a sticky situation. >> yeah, that's a hot potato. you want to stay away from that. you don't want to be the last person holding this thing. >> the problem is, it never seems to end.

every time we think they're at the end of this road, thief got a new ceo and probes coming out. we all know the balance sheet and leverage they've got on. that's the issue, everyone trying to figure out. this is just one more thing you just can't have going on. it's why it really is no-touch. there is not a lot of dipping into this stock, unless it's quick trades and get out. unfortunately, there's too much pressure on it to the down side. >> you've got to think, if it's an accounting probe, if they could prove something with the ceo and cfo, that perhaps could spell more trouble for the company itself in all these other lawsuits and investigations. >> everything that we do, it's counterintuitive to everything we do collective as traders. we try to look for the bottom, look for a trading opportunity. and when you look at the chart, it just massacres so many people that have been involved in it. the end, as pete said, is not there just yet. >> and listen, shiller and pearson were in front of congress. they -- they must have lied on so many occasions, you know. so maybe the whole thing is just

a ball of lies. and the equity value, like you said, at $6 billion, $31 billion in debt. maybe there's some other fraud there. so maybe it's not just philidor. i don't know why you would get in front of this thing. >> you see the chart there in the after hours session? >> is it going up? >> up 1.2%. >> have a ball. >> all right. coming up, disney calling foul on nielson. is the media giant's flagship enterprise in better shape than we think? and traders calling for an explosive move in blizzard. we'll tell you how to play it. much more "fast money" right after the break.

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to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ welcome back to "fast money." disney squaring off with nielsen after the ratings company reported that they had its worst month ever. >> nielsen retracting its report that shows espn had its worst month ever in october in terms of subscribinger losses saying it's investigating a larger than usual change and take the accuracy of our data seriously and are conducting a thorough analysis to determine whether or not there is an issue with these estimates. this raises larger questions about the accuracy of nielsen's

numbers on the heels of nielsen's most recent quarter missing on both the top and the bottom lines, sending the stock down 18% in the past week since it reported earnings. espn attacking nielsen for releasing potentially inaccurate numbers, saying, quote, the nielsen numbers represent a dramatic, unexplainable variation over prior months reporting, affecting all cable networks. we have raised this issue in light of their demonstrated failures over the years to accurately provide subscriber data. the data does not track our internal analysis. pivotal research analyst, brian weezer, saying the reported espn numbers are in line with the low single digits percentage subscriber declines he is seeing, and fbr analyst, burton crockett agrees it plays into the larger trends. >> this number is looking like something that we should definitely ignore and kind of focus on the longer-term trend of modest pressure, downward pressure and subscribers offsetting rate hikes.

this factors into the head winds on disney that make the stock more difficult to own this year. >> still questions at espn's health are sure to come up on the earnings call, which is next thursday afternoon. melissa? >> and julia, just to underscore the difference, these nielsen numbers are subscriber numbers and when we talk about decline that espn is seeing in nfl ratings, these are two issues -- two very important issues, but different. >> yes. so this nielsen report that they retracted was saying they saw certain number of subscriber losses for espn as in subscribers to the cable channel. they were saying they saw a large decline in subscribers but then retracted -- retracted those numbers, saying we're going to reevaluate and figure out if they were inaccurate, because they seem to be inaccurate. the nfl numbers we have been talking about since the start of the nfl season, those are viewing numbers. those are ratings for how many people are watching those nfl games. >> all right. julia, thank you. julia boorstin in los angeles with that story. sounds like disney has got a lot of issues. >> i would say either way,

there's enough concern out there. and it's a little bit of a surprise. i think especially to me, sitting here as a guy who is still involved in football or whatever and still does some work with espn. when you look at the nfl right now, there are so many different things that are -- they're all piling up on top of them, which is why -- you're losing subscribers, absolutely no doubt. they have lost however many million over the last few years. that number can be disputed as well, a little bit, anyway. but when you look at the viewership numbers, that becomes a real issue, mel. is it because the games are boring, long? >> what's your opinion? you're in it. why? >> i think it's a combination of everything, quite frankly. and competition with the elections. there have been so many different areas. this has happened before, though. you go back to '96, 2000, when the elections get very, very interesting, the debates get interesting, that's when they have actually had some ratings get hit on the nfl. they have bounced back. >> all right. who is a buyer of disney? who likes disney? the bulls will say disney is a bigger fran chase than espn. >> if they can turn this around. look at disney, $90 is your

stop. $92.5 or so. 2.5 to the down side. >> i do believe content still king. and i do believe the king of content is still disney. >> sounds like there is a big but coming. >> it is. because if the overall market is going to sell off disney is going to go with it. my stop is a little lower than brian's. i believe 86 bucks. so i think you get a better bargain for it. cord-cutting still a problem. and we haven't seen the end just yet. tranchts additional sports media may be suffering but e sports on the rise. one is active vision. dan headed over to the smart board right now. >> you guys were trying to figure out what are some of the causes. a lot of analysts expected that e sports viewing is 10% of the current market in just a few years. so when you think about that, that's just people watching other people play sports and

shooter games. active vision sets up some of their teams. they actually have some games that are very actively used in these things. right now, i think that is a 2017/'18 thing. the company reports their q3 earnings after the close. the options market implying a 5.5% move in either direction. that's about $2 billion on its market cap. that's in line with its four-quarter average. near-term, i think the stock probably could come in a little bit if the quarter is in line and the guidance isn't that exciting. here's the one-year chart, it's banging up against the up trend from the lows. it's up about 65% from its february 2016 lows. it's got some support here at 33 bucks. but there is an air pocket down to 40. that could be a long entry and one of t one of the reasons why i'm looking at that, look where this thing has come. there is a company trading about 20 times expected eps growth next year of 10%. 7% sales growth. maybe this e sports thing really is a thing that starts to take off. you know, i suspect activevision

is going to get bought. >> thanks, dan. for more "options action," check out the full show 5:30 eastern time on fridays. still ahead, the beauty business is booming. popular youtube and instagram makeup tutorials through the roof. we'll break down the big numbers. chipotle officially entering the burger war with its ohio-based restaurant. is it leaving a bad taste investors' mouths? we'll explain. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim.

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welcome back to "fast money." beauty stocks surging this year and your selfies and youtube videos could be the reason why. so is social media giving the industry a makeover? courtney reagan has more on this. >> it is definitely having a big effect. the smartphones, the selfies, social media propelling beauty sales to new highs. kw qvc says beauty sales are up 23% between 2011 and 2017 so today the shopping network launches online and is on tv.

digital and social are key pieces for the new platform, particularly facebook live. ceo mike george says the 24/7 new tv channel available in 40 million homes is as important as ever. >> cord-cutting and people moving away from tv. but our tv viewership has never been higher. and so others are kind of fleeing the tv space. we saw it as a chance to double down, to be a contrarian and go bigger into the television real estate. >> george says qvc's beauty offering has its new platform to the viewer. piper jaffray says teen spending is at all-time highs. ultra and self forra getting their higher interest from the group. jcpenney $500,000 in sales per square foot and those products are rarely on sale.

it's key for generating repeat foot traffic for those consumable items. you wi ulta turning in double digits comp.ing for more than seven straight quarters and upped its guidance and google search shows an increase from even its december peak. poised to capture a larger piece of the beauty enthusiast. these folks responsible for more than three quarters of the total beauty spend. so i think this trend is here to stay. maybe folks aren't watching espn, maybe they're watching qvc home shopping. >> i'm going ask pete that. >> i don't know the answer. >> i feel i've got to go to you. why. i have a feeling in my bones. >> she talked about ulta and you look at the valuation, looks a little high. you look at a forward earnings perspective, comes down a little bit and gets more interesting. i don't think you want to chase these, mel. they have had a great run. that doesn't mean they can't go

further. but i think they have had such a good run, i think you want to wait for a pullback. >> ulta specifically, most people think growth is decelerating. so they're repricing it. but it's also a distribution story with ulta. they're going to stand alone stores, different than department stores. >> from beauty to burgers. chipotle shares sinking more than 2% after reviews of its new burger concept, tasty made have come in bland. the burger joint which opened in ohio, is chipotle's spin on shake shack, five guys and in-n-out burger, but diners sharing dismay. kimberly dixon writing, tasty made, thin, completely undercooked patties, looks better on the outside. other users describing the burgers as fine and underwhelming. one customer writing, this on her instagram. we are one of the first customers at the very first tasty made. good stuff.

still. >> doesn't sound like good stuff, based on everybody else. i don't know. so we were just talking, actually, in the commercial about how much competition is in the burger space. and to me, if i was going to start a business right now, probably on the bottom of the list would be a burger joint. there's too many things out there. i don't think this is a good idea. that doesn't mean chipotle can't go up. >> you know what's a good idea, all-day breakfast. >> there you go. >> let's do all-day breakfast. >> at chipotle? they don't have any breakfast, do they? >> they should. >> i'm saying at the burger place, just do all-day breakfast. >> oh. yeah. >> really? >> i'll make one really important point. given the quality issues they have with their brand, the fact that they would release -- even in the test case, even in a test market, one store and not have it fabulous is shocking to me. >> i think a whole new generation has to die off before chipotle -- >> oh! >> i don't mean from them. i'm not saying from them. >> there has to be -- like -- >> i'm not going -- is anyone on this desk -- tim went.

but i wouldn't -- still wouldn't feel comfortable with going for it. >> all right. still ahead, the four stocks that could be scaring the gains right out of your portfolio. spooky stocks! this very special halloween version of your "final trade." that's next. bend me shape me, any way you want me

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♪ all right. as you know, it's halloween. so we wanted the traders to give us their scariest, spookiest picks. let's go around the horn, starting with pete najarian. >> i'm going to a what was a long time ago, karen finerman named de vita. it's been sold off in july, trading in the mid 70s, now trading in the mid 50s. it sold off pretty hard. huge put selling in there today tells me it's final ready to turn. i got in there, i think it's going up, giddyup. >> it looks scary. but not scary. okay. >> another one that looks scary and not that scary, under armour. everyone worried about growth, decelerating here. it might be a little early. you might have to let it breathe a little bit. 30.5 is your stop. keep an eye on it. >> brian kelly? >> the one i picked is scary and i think it's still scary. it's freeport-mcmoran. what scares me about it, i don't really understand why copper is going up in this environment. what bk doesn't understand, he gets scared.

i would stay away. >> dan? >> so this is scary. and we're talking about biotech earlier, the xpi, the index, coming down from 70 to 56. i think this one, keep a tight stop on it. >> i'm melissa lee, thanks for watching. have melissa lee. have a safe halloween. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. raise your hands if i think this business is difficult. you're right. you're right because too often the facts just don't fit with the