>> any local race? >> any part of the ballot, i have never in my life voted for a democrat. and this will be my first election. >> i think mrs. clinton might catch new york now. >> that tipped the balance. >> what have you saying? >> evan, thanks for sharing that with us. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. your traders on the desk, tim seymour, david seaburg, guy adami. michael moore is hire to talk election 2016, including why he thinks donald trump will win tuesday. and biotech bouncing today but getting crushed in the last month and if history is any indicator, could be setting up for a major breakout. and oil having its worst week since january. a top technician suggests it's time to buy. he is here with his contrarian call. first we start with the calm before the chaos.

the s&p posting a nine-day losing streak. and the s&p down about 3% in that period. which all things considered, isn't that big a drop. with the election next week, no matter who wins, is this just the calm before the market chaos? bk, i start off with you? >> you know bk loves chaos. >> that's why i started with you. >> here's why i look at it. i think up until about a week ago, up until we had the fbi report, the market was pricing in a hillary clinton win. so what the market has done over this week has started to take that probability down. i thought that you would get a sell the news event of hillary clinton won on tuesday. and if donald trump won, you would get a selloff. so i still think that's in the cards. i still think you see a lot of -- a lot of uncertainty. i think the bigger thing you have to watch for, when it comes to tuesday, what does the house look like, and how close the election is. if we get anything close -- anything like a contested election, you're going to see massive volatility on that.

>> what's the flow like on this? i'm curious. what kind of calls do you get? >> it's interesting. we had yesterday -- it was incredible the amount of cell calls we were getting when the justice department line came out about generics being investigated. get out. mylan -- price wasn't an issue. it was about finding liquidity. and it's scary. you think about it. i was talking to an analyst this morning and we had a conversation about what are you seeing in general? when you're talking to clients or what's the biggest question a lot of money managers are getting. and the question is this. what are you doing to protect yourself ahead of what would be another brexit event. that's the concern. we haven't seen the hedging start to set up in the options market. the options volumes are not really that high. dan could attest to that later show. in general, don't buy stocks. back off. the bids have been basically pushed aside and it's risk off covering shorts and getting out -- >> okay, but this isn't a short-term anything. i would make an argument that the reverse of brexit is exactly

why you should be scared. and if you think about it, we've actually sold off into this event. >> the reverse of brexit meaning what? >> brexit was a rally into brexit and oh, my goodness, this turned out horrible. we spiked down and then realized -- the reality of the uk's issues within europe. i won't get into why brexit wasn't so bad. the opposite is taking off here. selling off for very appropriate reasons both for the equity market. the fed snuck one in this week. they had a fed meeting, they're going to raise in december and the market isn't paying attention right now. that, by the way, is the bigger news. but i think we're going to rally on the election and that's going to be an opportunity for the market to be sold before the end of the week. and, again, the tactical call here is very dangerous. but if you're asking me what the setup is, it's completely the opposite of brexit. >> so rally on the election because clinton wins. >> yeah. i'm not going to flip that coin. i'm just going to tell you -- i'm going to tell you, first of all, i think the market on some level can even get some solace with the election being over and -- >> who is the election -- is

that what you're saying? >> the market is price -- a lot of election concerns and a trump victory in some sense already. the reality is for the markets, it doesn't matter for either candidate. for either candidate, there is big issues for this country you're going to be stuck with. >> it matters -- congress matters. >> the congress certainly matters. number one. if that -- no matter which way that goes, the congress matters. i think the markets only just -- reprice the hillary clinton probability. i don't think the markets priced in a trump win at all. because there's a lot -- protection is a lot of different things that would not be good. actually, frankly, on both sides, it's not good. dave talking about the biotechs, national weather service not going to be good either. i don't know. i agree with your call, sell it if there is a rally. >> we've got a short show tonight. i'm here every night. michael moore is here tonight. go to him. >> no, come on. >> the russell rally tape was a really good sign. the fact the s&p reversal went lower was a troubling sign. i will say this. we said 2040 in the s&p for a

while. i think it goes early next week. we'll see what happens from there. >> let's talk to mr. moore. he is never here. has never been here at "fast money." very special guest. and unusual one for us. and we've been mentioning him. >> sell, sell, sell. >> those are imaginary buttons in front of him. >> the odds of a trump victory are better than you think, and he says sell. >> on his laptop right now. >> you got me. >> getting rid of everything. >> you can see it right here. >> the latest documentary "trump land" available on i tunes. he joins us right now. you think a trump victory is in the books. >> number one on itunes. >> congratulations. >> i think since the summer, trump can definitely win. liberals, hillary supporters, didn't believe it. everybody was doing -- an end zone dance on the 2 yard line. in the middle of the summer. and i kept saying, look, i live in michigan. so i have a good sense, i think,

of where people are at. people are upset, angry at the system. and they see trump -- not so much they agree with him. but see him as the human molotov cocktail they get to toss into the system like with brexit and blow it up, send a message. and i think that now it's tightened and nobody is disagreeing with what i have been trying to say for a number of months. this could happen on tuesday. i certainly hope it doesn't happen. i've never wanted to be more wrong. >> and on your blog, some of your reasons you probably see are unfolding right in your own home state, in terms of the protest vote, in terms of angry white males. that's all -- people losing jobs to globalization. >> right. right. right. but, you know, here's what i also hear. and i split my life between michigan and new york. a lot of people i know -- i can't tell you how many people i've heard over this past week. they are getting out. they are -- they are -- >> leaving the country? >> no, the market. >> oh, getting out of the market. okay. >> what we're talking about here. >> i wasn't -- >> no, people are -- scared.

about what's going to happen. to -- their nest egg, to their retirement. and it's been going down, you know -- like you said, 36-year record. >> yeah. >> number of days, nine days now. and it's not like that yet. because there is still that hope that trump isn't going to happen. if trump is elected on tuesday, and i'm not one of you guys, i'm not a financial analyst. i live in the real world. the real world is, people were baling today, a they're going to bail even bigger on monday. and tuesday. as it looks closer and closer and the possibility exists that trump could actually win. it has freaked the average american out. and they want out of this. because they -- 2008 is way too soon in their memory. >> i'm curious, though, what policies you think would cause this? because you made -- >> it's not a policy. >> or -- >> a sociopath is going to be elected to the white house. somebody who acts as a 12-year-old. >> but in terms of --

>> when you put -- would you put your money in the hands of an investor -- an investment person who is acting like a 12-year-old? come on, be serious. i watch your show so i already know the answer to this. that you have in this individual somebody who is -- who acts irrationally, who has a thin skin, who is impulsive. where his ideology is not capitalism. it's not socialism. it's not democracy. because anybody who is for democracy would never say "i don't know if i'm going to accept the election results." his ideology is called donald j. trump. he believes in donald j. trump. and if it's good for him, then it's a good thing. not good for him, it's a bad thing. and people see that. you don't need to be -- again, a brainiac in high finance to realize, oh, my god. what's going to happen to my retirement? what's going to happen -- am i going to suffer -- do you recall that people in michigan and wisconsin and ohio, what they went through in 2007, 2008,

2009? this is -- they are -- people are living in utter fear of this, and may be the reason why he loses. >> right. >> because -- because middle class america knows this man is dangerous for wall street, for their checkbook. >> one of the films you're most known for "roger and me" chronicles what happened to your state in the late '80s with plants closing down in michigan and being moved to mexico. >> right. >> you can -- not even dream up, but you can totally envision donald trump pointing to that and saying, that's what i don't want to happen. i want to bring those jobs back to the u.s. >> right. and he stood there at the detroit economic club in front of the ford motor executives and said to them, because they announced they're closing all their small car factories and bhofg to mexico. he said it if you do that, i'm going put a 35% tar i have on all those cars. whether he can do that or does do it, it doesn't matter. it's music to the ears of the

working class of michigan. and wisconsin. and ohio. and i have been there these -- trying to convince my fellow angry white guys over the age of 35 with a high school education. i'm his demographic. i've been trying to convince them, this man is conning you. he doesn't really know if he even has the power to do what he says he's going to do to fort motor. i know it sounds good. i know it sounds good what he says, apple is going to make those iphones here. but it's all about -- he'll say anything to get elected. so you -- don't use the ballot on tuesday as an anger management exercise. >> so even though it seemed like roger and me was taking gm and gm's chairman to task for moving those jobs to mexico, i mean, that's what the film was. that's what i -- >> yes, but remember -- >> what's different about what that versus what donald trump is proposing? >> when i made that film, general motors was posting -- it was number one in the world in terms of record profits, $4

billion a year at that point in the late '80s and they were closing factories while they were making a profit, because to them, $4 billion wasn't enough. they wanted $5 billion or $6 billion. that's our system, right? so instead of being happy with being the number one corporation in the world, they said, we can make more if we sell those in mexico. not thinking that, but throwing the middle class out of work, who is going to buy your cars once you build them in mexico? it was such dumb thinking. and, again -- i don't think you have to be an economist to see how stupid that that was. >> you said anything about donald trump saying anything, essentially, to get elected. you can also equate that hillary clinton talking about drug pricing and regulating drug pricing. she's not going to have the power to do that unless the democrats come in -- >> so let's say you're right. she's a politician too. so she'll say things to get elected. the difference is, she doesn't behave like a 12-year-old. there's an actual adult inside of her. there's a rational person who is

going to weigh things. sometimes i'm going to be happy, sometimes you're going to be happy. sometimes neither of us will be happy. that's the way the system is supposed to work. but with him, that's not what's going on here. and i think you want an adult in charge of this. i mean, this is -- think about how strange this is. basically, that you have both corporate america and wall street and michael moore and bernie sanders saying don't vote for this guy. that this is bad. this is bad for our economy, it's bad for this country. and yet, i think the more the -- especially the system, meaning corporate america and wall street, the more it says they don't like trump, the stronger he gets with the people who have been hurt by corporate america and wall street. so in a way, it's kind of made him stronger in some science fiction movie kind of way. the more negativity he gets from the street, the stronger he becomes with the hurt and the

disaffected. >> this might be a crazy question. is the election ancillary to what's happening in the country? you outlined what's going to happen if mr. trump wins. if mrs. clinton wins, there is going to be an equally amount of upset people and it's not just going to end on wednesday, i don't believe. so is what you're talking about part of a bigger problem? >> i don't think it will be an equally amount. because -- here's the news flash. we actually live in a liberal country now. if you look at the polls, the majority of our fellow americans now are liberal on every single issue. >> so not equal -- so let's say 60/40. >> let's say it's 60/40. right. that's the way it was when we desegregated the south. it was 5050 and then 60/40. and time marches on and the young people take over. our 18 to 35-year-olds -- i'm a baby boomer. we raised these kids. they're not haters. they are strong believers in socialism or things that appear to be socialist, that -- they

have a belief that everybody deserves a slice of the pie. everybody should have a seat at the table. capitalism used to believe that, too. >> right. >> and then it got greedy. so this young generation doesn't want this form of capitalism any more. maybe everybody doesn't get the same slice of the pie. but everybody gets a slice of the pie. that's the world they want to live in. >> trump wins, do you stay in michigan, do you stay in the united states? >> are you implying that canada is just a half a mile away across the detroit river? >> well, it's a fact. but i'm asking you. >> no, of course not. nobody -- where do i look? nobody believes. everyone stays. >> got it. >> we have to -- this is our country. and we have to -- listen, 77% -- can i just close on this. 77% of this country right now is either female, people of color or young adults between the ages of 18 and 35. >> yep. >> he's offended every one of those groups. that's 77% of the country. as we know, we don't get to vote at home on our playstation or

xbox. you have to vote on tuesday. so if people show up, she's the next president. if people don't show up or in places like michigan where november 8th is called winter, low voter turnout will benefit the candidate that has the most rabid supporters. we know who that is. >> >> michael, thank you so much for coming by. >> thank you for the first time here. >> come back. >> i didn't get my own desk, but -- >> maybe next time. >> we're going to sell everything. >> yes, i know. i'm on the socialist desk here. imaginary desk that somebody else is going to pay for. >> it's being made in mexico. >> michael moore, legendary film maker. >> thank you very much. >> sell everything? >> i think the risk/reward. i get in trouble when i say sell everything. let me tell you -- but this is -- this is the point. this game of -- stock market is all about risk/reward. and if you have ridden the stock market from 2009 lows and you're

worried about your retirement and all of that, why in god's name would you take any risk at this point in time to eke out the next 5 tore 10%? be cautious. let's say that. coming up, something strange is happening with biotech. it is falling with hillary clinton's poll numbers. why? meg tirrell has got answers. and if you're worried about the election, we have the ultimate election playbook. the best way to protect your money for low cost. and later, the worst week since january. the top technician says there is something in the charts that is flashing a buy sign. what that is, when "fast money" returns. ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your

first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing) it's your tv, take it with you. with directv and at&t, watch all your live channels, on your devices, data-free. switch to directv and lock in your price for 2 years. offers starting at $50/month. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person,

on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

welcome back to "fast money." biotech has been taking a beatdown, down 15% in the past three months. we know that. but what is different? unlike in the past, biotech stocks are falling with hillary clinton's poll numbers. the prevailing wisdom, clinton would be bad for biotech and health care stocks. what's going on? time for stock therapy. this is an election that has driven everyone to therapy. we turn to meg terrell. >> the sentiment has been terrible for drug stocks heading into the election. if you look at those charts we were just showing, charting the predicted likelihood of a trump winning the presidency here, against health care and biotech, no matter which way trump goes, biotech and health care just go down. so what is leading to that? a lot of people do think that if hillary clinton were elected, and both house and senate were taken by the democrats, we could see real changing to pricing

regulation in the united states. well, it's just the sentiment is so bad across everything. and that pricing is already starting to play out across the industry, because of these political headlines, but also because there is already a pricing battle going on in the industry. if you look back to gilead, of course, and hepatitis c, we saw all those discounts being given to pharmacy benefits managers in places with a lot of competition. we are already seeing the pricing battle happen. this happened last week with amgen earnings, and people worried about rheumatoid arthritis market. pricing hitting everyone from a political headline standpoint and from an actual business competition stand point. so analysts are trying to figure out, how do you play this. citi came out with a note today, looking at the top six biotechs and ranked them one through six in terms of best position in this price constrained environment. putting alex i don't know, celgene and regeneron, essentially looking at how dependent they are on price in order to grow. how exposed are they to cancer

and orphan drugs. amgen with rheumatoid arthritis, very competitive environment. another note from suntrust, looking at historical election seasons, they have always been bad for biotech, on average, always declining into the election and on average coming out of the election, going up 15%. so suntrust taking a sunnier take, saying no matter which way things going, we might get 15% toward the end of the year. >> we know david said he's getting calls saying they want to limit exposure. what can you pick up? or is there nothing at this point? >> so the name of the show is "fast money." i lost it fast. i said amgen has been going lower for a while. i take the hit. a company with the balance sheet they have, the valuation they have and now the dividend yield they have for the wrong reasons, because the stock has gone down. if you have a horizon this show doesn't typically talk about, it's just an amazing company. i know it's number six on the list, but it's an incredible company doing incredible things. some pricing pressure, yes. but a pipeline and drugs out in

the market now that nobody can really touch. so, again, this is not really what we do on the show. but this is an amazing company that's taken out back to the wood shed, in my opinion, for the wrong reasons. >> seems every corner of the health care industry is under fire in some way. no refuge. it's not like you can say the companies spend the money on the r & d, they're safe. they're not safe. if somebody is making generic drug, no -- >> it comes back to valuation. and i think guys with celgene, with a very defendable valuation of the places you have to play. there is so much bad news and the expectation thatlation is going to turn it over overnight, i don't think so. >> thank you. happy belated birthday. will the consumer show up? we've got the details. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business, worldwide. >> the election from hell is coming to an end. and with it could come the end

of your portfolio. but relax. because no matter who wins, we'll tell you how you can protect your money for just five bucks. plus, crude just did something today that has a top technician making a big contrarian call. we'll tell you what that is, when "fast money" returns.

remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. who's with me? i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. ♪ ♪ one, two, - wait, wait. wait - where's tina? doing the hand thing? yep! we are all in for our customers. ally. do it right.

it's the big weekend when daylight saving time ends. >> wait a second, stop, stop, stop! >> oh, boy. >> what's today? >> oh, man. ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ happy birthday to you

♪ happy birthday dear mel ♪ happy birthday to you >> how do we trade mel's birthday? >> you don't. >> you don't. >> do we have time for our finally trade? >> of course we do. >> we're going to turn -- since it's daylight saving time, do you turn the clock back? stocks you wish you could turn back on. >> if you could turn back stz to win, they've got offset. my point for this, sure, i would have loved to have bought at 44 times growth. that stock is expensive. sell it. >> simple for me. amazon. i'm a buyer today. i wish i was buyer at the end of 2014, '15, when the stock was 400 bucks. still a layup, in my opinion. i love it. >> that is cher, by the way. bk? >> i would turn back the clock twice on facebook. one to buy it back at 30, and one at 118, not to buy it. >> you love this song, too? >> actually one of my favorite

songs. >> happy birthday, mel! do the whole thing! >> that does it here for "fast money." "options action"s after the break. and thank you for the birthday wishes. bend me shape me, any way you want me as long as you love me, it's alright... shape the best sleep of your life. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology adjust any way you want it. the bed that moves you. only at a sleep number store.

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live this friday afternoon. the gang getting ready behind me. while doing that, here's what's coming up. >> shop til you drop! ♪ and that's exactly what the consumer might have done, and it could spell trouble for a number of stocks that report earnings next week. we'll tell you how to profit. plus -- >> here's what's been happening to crude. but there is something in the charts that suggest the pain might be over. we'll tell you what that is. and are you worried that these two people will ruin your portfolio next week? well, we have a way to protect your portfolio, no matter who wins. the action begins right now. let's get rig