>> thank you, andrew. >> i was going to say from alpine -- i was going to say aspen. we were joking before. and larry kudlow, the great larry kudlow, much more of you in the next few hours. >> thank you. >> and i'll see you on wednesday -- >> thursday. >> yeah, big conference. yeah, hang out. >> you get a big discount. >> and larry has a new book out looking forward to that. >> thank you, walter. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. one day until the election. futures are sharply higher on news over the weekend. james comey telling congress there is no change to the fbi's conclusion regarding hillary clinton. europe with some gains of its own economical dar pretty light

today. most news obviously going to be overshadowed by politics. as we said, stocks around the globe rallying after fbi director james comey's comments. the s&p looks to break a nine-session losing streak. jim, i've been looking for corporate news, micro stuff, that's just not going to pop today. >> no, look, mgm is going to have a good number, but i don't want to minimize it. i did a piece this morning, i look through the charts pretty much every weekend for the last 30 years. i didn't open because it really doesn't matter. now, we did see the search in the futures and you could argue, now pretty crystal clear, the people who trade futures, whoever they are, clearly they're not pro-trump. or they may be pro-trump, but they think clinton wins. i found myself thinking, geez, i looked at earnings this week, there are some very important ones including retail. and they just don't matter. matthew boss with an interesting piece today about how jc penney misses and that's on friday and

how macy's misses and i'm thinking that's like years from now. >> right. >> when macy's reports. because we have something, and i look forward to watching your coverage on tuesday because what's going to happen is everything i follow with the exception of the deals that are now done, whether we talk about a netsuite or wind stream, it doesn't matter. this is an election we don't care about earnings. >> no, it wasn't just all the prospects of a trump presidency growing greater over that time period. oil also had a play into that. it was down. >> oil and demise of health care earnings. >> demise of health care, the expectation of a fed rate hike in december which is getting ever closer. >> jobs number on friday. >> and not great earnings. not bad, but not great. >> i think you have to look at the mosaic earnings from what came out. i talked a lot about this with executives about when they do report. because if you go back, you

know, technology was pretty good. but no one's reported in a long time. the banks were very, very good. okay. you're talking about a cohort that's organic. >> that's true. >> health care was last week. and health care what was surprising, i think, was devices were bad, cost containers were bad, drug companies were bad. it's a very big part of the s&p. this week we're going to see retail. i don't think retail's poised to rally. retail not as big, but the arc of earnings season is just taking -- it just creates this image that when you get to this point that earnings were bad but there were pockets of earnings that we're not used to being bad. i mean, i spoke to clorox's ceo last week and clorox had a pretty good number. but clorox peaked july 7th. what happened july 7th? that's when interest rates trough. so you had consumer products didn't matter what they said totally hostage as bottom market

equivalents, and then you did have i have to tell you perhaps the worst season for health care that i've seen since early '90s. it was really rather amazing. >> yeah. >> we had tepper on squawk. obviously a lot of people heard his comments regarding how hard it is for fund managers to discount these polls, to discount the prediction markets, to discount the range of policy options under trump or clinton. >> i know. >> it's been tough to make money all yearlong. >> right. i'm doing a piece tomorrow because we're doing our show live, obviously like yours, about who wins no matter what. we'll have more granularity of groups so incredible. and i found two groups out of what i would say is 20 and i don't want to reveal yet because obviously i want people to watch where you could make money either way. i've got a show tonight about what would happen in a trump presidency, again, just to be able to demonstrate the real weaknesses in the system of what would occur where the earnings

would be most hurt. so people just understand. but i thought it was so funny david tepper has at his command every single resource and he kind of throws away at one moment goes well, i watch five thirty-eight. typically when the eagles were winning, i look at the eagles. i have enough poise now to be able to after i threw my headphones at the tv and broke my headphones, my wife said that's it, you're done, we're not going to have the box next year. i realize if i go to espn now i claim i'm going for five thirty-eight. and 538 is not even that accurate. >> was it the blocked field goal? >> no, it was when you get an interception, almost every team when you get an interception at 40 or 50 you have to score. the headphones were not bose, it was sony headphones, not a big loss, but the chink in the tv, as the dog got hit by it. >> collateral damage. >> the realizization i may have

to be done as a fan. >> you're not done as a country, jim, the eagles have been worse and we'll get through this chapter too. >> oh, come on, you can be a jets fan, it can always be worse. i am so much closer to the l lombardi trophy right now than they ever will be. >> well, we had one -- i see the host is houston, you think i wouldn't have one of those top hotel room sns now i'm going to try to be as far away as possible. i'm also going to miss the last game of the season. my wife told me that. >> speaking of the markets this morning, tom lee has a note that says markets tend to react more to economic trends than election trends. >> okay. >> so he sees the year ending up regardless of wlo wins unless -- his point is unless trump wins by fewer than 25 evs and the thing gets contested. that's when things get difficult. >> a contested election is going to put a pall over everything. we really only have a fed meeting between now and the end

of the year and we all pretty much agree the fed's going to raise so the only thing that happens is the fed doesn't raise get back to bottom market equivalent. we get through this week and i think tom lee is right. as long as there's no contested election, this is what's so hard. you had to buy aggressively friday pre-comey. i mean, the comey announcement comes out -- you know, comes i'm busy watching football at that moment so i was not able to grasp it. i think the comey announcement comes out and whatever happened you have a full day of percolation here, but yeah, it's really clear sailing. after this wednesday. provided there's no contest. numbers -- data wise. >> right. but i mean, the election is still going to dominate. >> i'm not sure. >> oh, i am. >> well, all right, yes, but if we start looking at companies again, there's no earnings to speak of. >> trump much more so because to tepper's point you don't know what to expect. so everybody's going to be

trying to figure things out. obviously the presidency won't start until the 20th of january next year. if it's a clinton win, i think you may be -- there's an expectation going to be more of the same for the most part. maybe you have hope there's some legislating done. >> if she announces that one of the people who are the most left in congress are going into her cabinet. >> i don't -- why do you think that's the case? >> no, i'm saying it won't. >> yeah. >> so i'm saying, look, the bank stocks you have a democratic congress. let's say it takes like that. versus a fed rate hike, fed rate hike trumps because all the numbers go up. i'm just looking at the calendar and saying if that's the biggest event which is a fed rate hike, wow, you could be off to the races provided there's no contested election. a trump victory would cause a lot of disarray for a few days. and then we would begin to figure out what it really means both internationally.

internationally i think would be worse. >> right. although again you wouldn't really know until his presidency began. >> right. >> so a lot of back and forth for a long period of time. and even then every day could be an adventure. >> let's just play it out. next monday we're going to come in, you're going to turn to me and say, well, jim, what do you think about what's going to happen this week with microsoft? am i going to say, i don't know, david, it's a big unknown with the election? and on tuesday you come in se, hey, jim, what do you think about nvidia? >> you might say it's a big unknown because of trade policy, or because the president-elect just tweeted something that seems like it's very potentially negative for trade or for microsoft. who knows. >> well, okay. that's all -- it's certainly possible. i'm looking at the tape and what's rallying and i'll say, okay, united technologies up $1.47 right now in premarket. united technologies needs otis,

which is china, needs carrier. you will look at estimates and be up or down, but there's been such uncertainty that it would be great to have the uncertainty removed and just be able to deal with earnings. >> yes. >> even if the earnings are going to be haircut because of possible decline in world trade. yes. but i'm saying we'll get through it. but right now no numbers can be put together. >> it's true. but we don't have very much longer to get at least an answer, we hope, one way or the other. >> speaking of getting through it, the candidates themselves are making a final push for voters ahead of election day tomorrow. our chief washington correspondent john harwood is back at hq with the latest. good morning, john. >> good morning, carl. i think everybody's glad the days are gone from this countdown clock, just less than 15 hours to go. and the candidates are running around today as we indicated earlier both donald trump and hillary clinton are going to be in north carolina. trump's also going to be in new hampshire, hillary clinton will be in philadelphia with president obama. and we have the new nbc/"the

wall street journal" poll, final pre-election poll, take a look at the numbers. hillary clinton has an advantage of 44% to 40%, gary johnson at 6%, jill stein at 2%. if you look at the components of their coalition, it's been very consistent throughout the election year. first of all, donald trump's assets, he leads among men by eight points. he leads among age 65-plus by eight, among white voters by 16. even stronger leads when you look at non-college white voters, he leads by 32 points. and rural residents 28. but those advantages are outweighed by hillary clinton's advantages. hillary clinton has a larger lead with women than donald trump has among men. she's got a larger lead with 18 to 34-year-olds and donald trump has among 65-plus. among non-whites she leads by 56 percentage points. that's a huge vulnerability. she has an unprecedented lead for a democrat among white college graduates leading by

seven points, democratic presidential candidate in the history of modern polling has never carried that group. and finally, the urban vote is critical for her, she leads by 26 points. we've also got a couple battleground polls out today by quinnipiac in florida, one-point lead for hillary clinton, north carolina two-point lead. a lot of the early votes been cast in those states, but hillary clinton has got a promising path to get over the 270 electoral votes she needs. donald trump's is uphill. still got a shot, within striking distance but very difficult for him, guys. >> really quick, john, how much of a potential liability is michigan for clinton? >> i don't think too much. hillary clinton has a lead there. it's not a huge lead. i think that race will be close. a trump advisor told me over the weekend i think michigan breaks our hearts because we're going to come close but not be able to get there. we'll see what happens. the clinton campaign is going in late. they say the reason for that is that it's not an early voting state, it is a game-day state.

so they're going in right when people are getting poised to make their voting decision and go to the ballot box. >> certainly that reflects on the schedule today, john. we'll talk to you soon, our john harwood. make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night beginning right here at 7:00 p.m. on cnbc. on this monday morning take a look at the futures trying to avoid the last ten-day skid, july of 1975. it looks like the s&p will do that. more "squawk on the street" from post nine in a minute. these goofy glasses.

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futures pointing to a rally this morning. markets reacting to some new polls showing clinton leading, and of course the fbi saying they are not going to change their conclusion on her e-mails. billionaire investor david tepper was on squawk this morning lighting up the wires with his comments on trump. take a listen. >> i got to tell you, during the financial crisis, during sandy, not one time -- not one time, and i know this firsthand, this is fact, not conjecture, not one dime to one major food bank, not one major pantry in new jersey. during sandy, the sandy benefit,

big 9/11 benefit, not one dime. not one dime! you can't tell me this is a charitable generous person. when you live in these places and you are living with your people here and you're supposedly a multibillionaire and not one tidime, not one dim for people in the greatest hour of need. >> now, tepper said originally he was open to trump. said he was waiting for a turn, which didn't happen. he's going to vote clinton, but a republican down ticket. this emphasis though on charity and the way you present yourself as being charitable is something he has a problem with. >> i mean, that's something that is releasable. you can find out how much people give to charity and the donation log. >> right. but we haven't seen any. >> no, i know. i'm saying this would be an example. just prove david tepper wrong. david's wrong.

i know david personally. i know there are many of us involved in doing things after sandy, some things were money and some things weren't. so that was a very harsh -- david obviously very, very heartfelt, but then trump's campaign manager just begged to disagree. this is a factual dispute, but we can't -- we don't know the facts. >> he said we do know the facts. why don't we know the facts? >> because, david, okay. david didn't present any evidence that there weren't other things that he did. >> true. he's referring to his own membership on the robin hood board. >> right. >> his own involvement in food pantries. we're getting into the weeds though on why he left for florida and his own commitment to paying taxes. >> i know. you know, i've known -- david's one of the most charitable guys in the world. and i do find that the

charitable community is very tied in. they tend to know who gives. but that doesn't mean there aren't -- i'm trying to be neutral here. >> well, if we had trump's tax returns we might have a better idea. >> yeah, a lot easier to determine. >> i don't think that's likely we'll get them before the election. >> some say there may be never again a politician who feels obligated to disclose their taxes. we'll see. >> this is a different election for certain. >> we'll get the opening bell after a break. of course we'll get jim's mad dash as well. take another look at the premarket with a solid opening on tap. more "squawk on the street" from the nyse is straight ahead.

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about eight minutes from now. you can see we are set up for a much higher open after nine straight down sessions for the s&p. it does appear at least in the early going we're going to have a chance of breaking that streak. let's get to our mad dash now for this monday morning with jim. >> david, i think something m&a because it's not necessarily big enough to hit the faber report, but interesting. windstream, another one of these companies like centurylink, had a lot of land line, it's merging with earthlink, $1.1 billion deal, initially accretive to cash flow. >> right. >> why is this important? if you go back over the centurylink deal, i know it was poorly received, but they boost their cash flow with merging with lvlt. these are high yielding companies. and the idea is they can preserve the dividend by doing a merger. now, frontier, which is a $3 stock come back and do something? but the three independents that we've been stuck with is

frontier, windstream and centurylink. i think it's interesting centurylink and windstream felt the time was now to boost their cash flow, not unlike when time warner got a bid from att and their cash flow gets boosted so you feel more confident about the dividend. i come back and say all these are dividend related. all these windstream, centurylink, att, they are all about having the best income streams. >> yeah, centurylink really suffered last week. >> geez. >> wow. i mean, the yield above 9 at one point. i didn't see friday's performance on ctl. it did not do well after the announcement of the deal -- >> i don't want to stick my neck out and say centurylink is better company than lvlt, but -- >> dividend is in much better position. >> and it's not being reflected in any of these stocks. just be aware these companies are doing in order to keep their dividend. it's important. >> all right. well, you saw at the beginning of the segment that the s&p

looks to be up as much as 30 points. we'll see how we fare when the market opens now. more "squawk on the street" right after this.

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you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just about three minutes on this monday morning. election day tomorrow, of course. markets reacting to the news from james comey over the weekend that the fbi's conclusion regarding hillary clinton has not changed. obviously we're kicking around politics pretty much the entire morning, although tesla with a few headlines here this morning, jim. you know, we talked to elon musk on friday. blogging today that they're going to start charging new customers for using the charging network, something they had been giving to drivers for free. >> i know we were talking about some tweets that discuss where the debt lies. >> yeah. elon musk also, carl, i don't know if you saw putting out some tweets on november 4th that seemed to confuse people about the plan for solarcity's debt saying tesla will definitely

absorb solarcity's debt, although extremely unlikely he would pay personally if need be. but, you know, there's been back and forth in terms of concern about what debt is going to be assumed at what level. and they better get their communications straight at tesla in terms of their approach to solarcity and what exactly's happening. because that differed a bit from the filings. >> but, at the same time i'm watching a deal closing netsuite oracle where there's a huge chunk of netsuite that's owned by larry ellison. and i'm wondering, david, will it even matter? solarcity, isn't that a done deal regardless? >> well, they got to get a vote of unaffiliateds there and talk a bit more about this when the market opens. unbelievable of course. on friday never got to it though i have to admit i would not have been able to share great insight.

the question of netsuite was brown advisors, we knew t. rowe was voting against, they wanted 133, may have been the price itself that motivated all other shareholders say wait a second we're never going to see that take 109. the stock was $90 on netsuite. but on solarcity you had the vote of the unaffiliated. it's a couple of weeks away i think still. >> i do think it is kind of interesting. >> yeah, the 17th. >> i think the fascination with musk has reached a new peak when you're watching nfl and you see the mars movie and it's musk advertising the "mars" movie. i mean, the guy is getting to be cultural icon status. >> also interesting he got this deal in sort of this netherworld, saying maybe there's a different kind of deal put together with gannett, obviously tesla and solarcity working hard to get that done.

recommending the merger on friday. let see what some of the others say, in the meantime look at the big board, super bowl host committee with the vince lombardi trophy celebrating 100 days to go until super bowl 51. speaki i it is key. >> it is. you want to have the same message. so when your ceo and shareholder tweets something that's a bit different than what you file publicly, that can create a communications morass for you. >> i do want to point out classic up openings like this have not been terrific places to get involved. now, this obviously is more election oriented. but to come in on top of what are pure futures buying has not worked. you can look at some of the european companies and maybe

take your cue. i see a lot of the european banks are very strong. but there's some news over there makes it so they can raise some capital. but i want people to just be careful that this rally is entirely based on futures. and then a lot of times real buyers don't chase. let's use the case of facebook. they reported a quarter knock the stock down 117, 118, it's now back up four points, but how much of that is futures buying versus how much of it is the actual belief that facebook, twitter wasn't so bad? use that as your example. and watch facebook to see if it comes in. because there were real sellers friday. there were some real sellers. >> yeah. and by the way, remember we'd lost 3% over that nine-day streak. and we'd need to get back to 2153 to erase all of that. we're nowhere near that. >> on the s&p oscillator i follow we have had no -- there have been five times where we've been this oversold in the last year. all of them produced nice

rallies. so against the idea there's -- i know we have an election so you can say all bets are off, but this oversold has produced rallies. that staggering figure you gave about ten straight downs 1975, now you're really starting to talk about a period in the country is not just -- it's actually the republic. >> is your mind on the retail and media we're going to get this week? viacom -- >> see, i was just doing work on disney and on espn numbers. i was trying to figure out what happens with macy's, which is closing a lot of stores. going back over starbucks to see if i missed something about the idea that maybe the consumer is not as weak as i think. jc penney on friday obviously a situation where a lot of people felt there was a turn. >> disney -- >> disney's really -- >> yeah, disney is interesting in part this dispute they're having with neilsen, i think belief they lost 621,000 espn subscribers, taking the number

from memory, but something very close to that in a month. disney's saying come on. are you kidding me? >> i thought that was interesting they were just point-blank, this is one objectively someone has an answer, don't they? >> well, of course it exacerbates the fears already out there about the continued subscription losses at espn. >> right. >> and it will be interesting to see. you know, meanwhile the latest marvel movie looks to be another big one for them. >> i know. you know, it's funny this weekend i was out with some money managers. not on purpose. they just happened to be there watching with my wife. two suggested if disney went down, bob iger please close your ears, that why wouldn't google benefit. i'm like disney, no, disney can't get a bid. but you have people after time warner like well, why couldn't -- >> well, it's not inconceivable. >> i have to admit i look at market cap, i look at cash positions, i look at if people really think disney is had it

because of espn and goes down dramatically, you tell me google wouldn't want to buy the darn thing? holy cow. >> i don't know. >> it's not why you would buy disney. >> that would be highly unexpected. >> no, but i'm saying the y that had disney -- at a certain point, yes, espn is very, very important. i'm not denying that. but at a certain point do we not just understand that their movies are $800 million a pop? that shanghai disney's doing well. i know that espn is the mother's milk. but what happens if those losses level off? maybe there's -- now you're starting 16 million people, you know, do you think that 25 million people will decide skinny bundle or not take espn. that would be a lot of people. that would be you're talking about -- >> i think that's a fair expectation, not right away, but eventually. >> you think the 10% of the people would cut the cord? >> i think eventually we'll have a lot more than that who cut the cord overall from what we started with let's call it a

little over 100 million households. >> that includes football peaking, obviously you would think football's peaked because the ratings are quite poor. >> couple interesting notes. on thursday b of a cut fitbit from buy to sell on that horrible news. today they do the same on gopro, buy to sell, price target goes from $17 to $10. that's two embarrassing downgrades. >> the gopro quarter and fitbit quarter when you read the conference calls, you basically say, okay, these remind me of commodore computer. >> i had a commodore back in '87. >> yeah. there was another firby, you had certain trends. but the commodore was where it had some quarter and that was the end. now, gopro will exist. and fitbit will exist, but it turns out that they were commodity companies. and, you know, i'm still struck by how fitbit told me on october 6th to focus on amazon as a way

to figure out how they were doing. that turned out to be a complete false tell. it just didn't hold up under any close scrutiny at all. so you think is that what they were doing? were they sitting there saying, hey, wow, we're number one on amazon, let's keep making the product? clearly there had to be other data that they were looking at, right? right? no? >> you've asked this question, and it's a good question. >> well, what else -- >> i don't know the answer. >> did they look at kids who are in parks and do survey? i don't know. but i mean, really, if they just felt that they were amazon, well, that was a bad call. >> we mentioned net dlsuite bef the bell. remember we reported on some time back when the first time they had a deadline for tendering the shares it appeared and rightly so they weren't going to be able to meet the minimum threshold of getting more than 50% of the unaffiliated shares. extended the deadline to friday

night, t. rowe of course the largest single holder had come out and said we're not tendering. but give oracle credit, they went to 109, they stuck at 109. they said best and final at 109 and they won the day. unexpectedly as you see because of the market had anticipated this netsuite stock would have been a lot higher than where it was on friday. i'm told the co-ceo there really orchestrated what ended up being a successful campaign for them. it appears they turned brown advisors, they were a key holder. people wondered about. they weren't sharing any information. but, jim, this was unexpected. they end up be 53.2% of the total unaffiliated shares. >> wow. >> they will own the stock as of tonight -- own the company i should say as of tonight when they close the tender. >> those of us who know him really one of the best there is. when you put these two together you now have a proportion of cloud on their conference call that is going to be rather

extraordinary how much they'll have leaped in terms of percentage of business being cloud. netsuite, small, medium size business, but that still matters. it was a home run for them. really fabulous deal for oracle. >> yeah. that was probably a decent risk/reward on friday. >> there's an article this weekend about the disagreement between microsoft and salesforce. >> right. we had originally reported on salesforce and microsoft talks, god, sometimes i forget, but apparently they had resumed again, according to this report, i think it was in "new york times," but then didn't get anywhere again. >> it's gotten very ugly in that group. and i did -- i had felt there was great comity between marc benioff and nadella and in the end it was kind of like marc said due to twitter, my good friend jack dorsey. i felt like that suddenly sacha

had been raised to that good friend category. maybe marc watches a little bit too much of us and makes those recognizes that there's facetiousness involved in being a good friend. >> jim, really quick. a lot up, but kansas city southern up 5%. >> okay. so close -- actually, a little more than 50% of their business is with mexico. about 5 3% after last year. the line runs next to my house in mexico, just filled with cars. raw materials coming down, cars going up. and nafta is the reason why ksu does so well. so this is a nafta referendum and ksu will live to play again. now, they're the single biggest loser of any american company if nafta's repealed. they are the trunk line to get your cars from everywhere the germans and japanese need the

cars. >> interesting to watch. dow up 273 going to be the biggest gain since september 12th. that's across the board if it holds. let's get to bob pisani. bob. >> good morning, carl. happy monday everybody. we haven't had an opening like this in awhile. 12-to-1 advance to declining stocks. less than 200 stocks down at the nyse. that hasn't happened in a while. really the whole world is up 1 to 1.5%. nikkei is up about 1.6%. germany gak up rather nicely. that's up about 1.5%. france is also up 1.7%. the yen dropped, dollar rose and all sorts of things moved around and that's one of the reasons we're getting such a strong rally. gold is down. remember gold was over 1,300. it's come down a little bit. it was 2% earlier. now down about 1.4%, but that's about the worst showing in about

a month. earlier on. gold a laggard now all down 3%, 4% here. in terms of sectors, well, everything is up. but it's interesting to see the market leaders and market laggards moving here. so banks and tech as far as sectors go are up rather strongly. retail and pharma are also on the upside. and remember they've been badly beaten up recently. so the big point about the market is that we are very bifurcated right now. so there are a small group in up trends and holding up very well, they include bank stocks, transportation stocks, some of the aerospace stocks and semiconductors although they're off their highs. there's your sort of market leadership. the market's held up very well because banks and tech are the two biggest sectors. but behind that there's all sorts of stuff that is having a very, very rough time in the market. so here's the laggards that we're taking a look at here. pharma's had a horrible six weeks or so. we've seen also groups like retail, election -- blaming the election for a lot of things.

new dog ate my homework. the election is making people not go to the malls, which is strange to me, but that's the excuse. consumer staples market leader earlier in the year had a terrible time of it. and telecom and reits, my point is we're up but the market's been very bifurcated. it could go either way. here's the big issue, do you fade this rally right now? there's the s&p 500. so we've been down 3% as carl mentioned earlier from the highs to the lows in the last nine days. we've recovered today exactly half of that. do you fade this kind of rally? what do you do right now here? so a lot of people are arguing that you probably should. remember brexit? brexit was a two-day empbt. this is the opposite. brexit down two days and then market recovered. is this what's going to happen here with this rally assuming we get this status quo election we're talking about. that's where the big debate lies right now. remember, any kind of stimulus that might happen from clinton victory or congress moving with her is a long, long ways down the road. and we've got the federal

reserve coming certainly in between that and any president inaugural way over in january. that's something to think about. right now dow right holding onto its gains. >> thanks so much, bob pisani. let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli at the cme in chicago. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, when we talk about the amount of days in a row, nine, how far back that goes and then we talk about the actual distance markets covered as we do so well on cnbc, bob just said it, 3% over nine sessions, half of it in one session. it isn't about the days. it's about the distance traveled and what's more this isn't your father's or your grandfather's market anymore. mostly computer driven, and of course there's a lot of issues. and all these issues seem to effect markets in very similar fashion. so trying to draw conclusions about markets, well, maybe it's best to give it most time to

simmer. nikkei up big, dax up big, our markets are up big. i think that it's how markets move together that's the most important dynamic to focus on. if we look at the spread between tens minus twos, acknowledging we had a lot of central banking activity last week in the form of meetings, we could see that. it's range has really been narrow. i think that's quite porpt. and if i look at the yield curve, first look at a one-week of twos, we're not going anywhere quickly even though we've moved back up in yield predicated in large part on equities recouping nine days and basically half of that in one session. let's look at a one-week of tens, but we can look at bunds, we can even include other charts like gilts. everybody is moving to the same tune. that really goes a long way to dispel how we're trying to handicap various activities, whether it's elections, whether it's referendums, it gets much more complicated than that. and finally, foreign exchange wise, you know, the fed has been tinkering with the balance sheet in ways many insiders think is

going to definitely result in a tightening in december. i can't tell. many of these thought the same thing was true on several other occasions that didn't result in a tightening. but the long and the short of it is much of that may have affected the dollar. now the dollar seems to be coming back. i still think that this is the best barometer to pay attention to. and it held where it needed to as you see on this july chart of the dollar index. 97.5 held, now it's back to testing 98.63 which is where we closed in 2015. carl, back to you. >> all right. all good points. thanks so much, rick. rick santelli. we're going to stay on top of this morning's rally. as we said earlier stocks up the most since september 12 9, although the dow now up 277 is the biggest gain since june 29. back after a break.

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pretty good breadth at the open here. just a handful of stocks in the s&p posting biggest days since

september 12 9. meanwhile, north carolina's 15 electoral votes up for grabs in this race. scott cohn is live in the state's capital with more. scott. >> good morning, carl. this is really political ground zero today with donald trump and hillary clinton both planning rallies today and tonight right here in raleigh. and this might help explain why. now, these numbers are not final yet, but these are early voting numbers from the state board of elections. it looks like 3.1 million north carolina filed ballots early. about 45% of the electorate, that's way up from 2012, but in a state rife with racial tensions, african-american turnout and overall democratic turnout are down, while republicans are unchanged. the democratic ballots do outnumber republicans, but there's a big effort now on both sides to get out the vote on election day. and it's not just the presidency at stake here. we have important down ballot

races, a key u.s. senate race and then the governor's race. tightest in the country between incumbent republican pat mccrory and democrat roy cooper, and it's all about that controversial bathroom law known as hb-2 signed into law this year. you want to know how nasty that race has gotten, take a look at this ad from the pro-hb2 forces. >> roy cooper's bathroom plan. what does it mean to you? any man at any time could enter a woman's bathroom simply by claiming to be a woman that day. >> well, the anti-hb-2 forces meanwhile say that the sentiment against the bill is energizing voters across the board in the democratic races in this state. >> if you go on college campuses, if you're in our large urban areas raleigh, charlotte, greensboro, hb-2 is an incredible driver to the polls, so i think that's going to pan out to victory for roy cooper

and hillary clinton here on election day. >> another important unknown here, suburban women. we'll see how they turnout, but it is clear that with all of the attention at the top of the ticket is garnering on this day today, it is clearly at this point up for grabs, carl. >> thank you very much, scott cohn. that's going to mean the early part of the night tomorrow night is going to be key watching what happens with the florida, with the north carolina, pennsylvania. >> i'm going to look forward to your special because i think you guy haves hit it for me for my world i got to watch these things because a lot of these things determine what i regard as retail stocks. if i hear that there's kind of -- if we could get through the melees where you had reagan win and a definitive move in the stock market quite impressive. now, many things happened, interest rates peaked and inflation peaked, but i'll watch to figure out maybe some insight into the market that i'm going to need very badly starting

wednesday morning. >> starting wednesday morning, yep. remember to catch our coverage tomorrow night beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc. when we come back, we'll get stop trading with jim, dow remains elevated today up 2 61. don't go away.

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time for cramer and stop trading. >> this evercore analyst is very powerful, recommended cummins. i point out particularly weak quarter, so when you see that we were talking about what stocks could do well after the election and what industrials, when you see a stock that is up nicely from a big disappointment, what does that mean? it means if things get even marginally better in the united states, that stock's going to take off. so i like that pattern. that's a pattern that says once the election's through you might want to be looking at that. not just microsoft, not just nvidia but maybe an industrial. >> so tonight political playb k playboo playbooks? >> yes. still a lot of people don't understand what nafta means. brad jacobs by the way is a guy who promised certain things i thought were sky high, delivered on everything and more. this is a company that's now really worldwide logistics

company. very, very impressive team he's put together. i like the stock very much. can't wait. can't wait until tomorrow night. can't wait until wednesday when it's over. >> you're not alone in that. >> can't wait until veterans day when i have a very good show coming up that i'm very excited about with cadets coming down from west point. >> how nice will it be to at least put this chapter behind us and look at celebrate something like veterans, right? >> yeah. just be terrific. >> jim, we will see you tonight. >> thank you, guys. >> 6:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back, a lot more on the rally this morning as we countdown to election day. dow's up 264. don't go away. ♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you.

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say. oil meantime up a buck about 1% back to 44.54. our road map for the hour begins with the market surging after the fbi clears clinton in the e-mail investigation again. s&p 500 on track to break its first nine-day losing streak in 36 years. >> just one day until the election, clinton holding a slight lead in some of the latest polls. we're going to go to the swing states that could determine the next president straight ahead. plus, a warning from the deputy mayor of new york. how she describes billionaire presidential candidate donald trump after decades of working with him. she'll be joining us live. but first, let's start with this market rally. the dow is up 264 points. the s&p 500 is up more than a percent and a half. and the nasdaq is soaring the most of the three major averages. it is up 1.7%. it is broad base. we've got all s&p sectors higher led by financials, which are getting a boost from those higher yields that we are seeing. also surging with 24 hours to go, the mexican peso.

mexico's peso opens early, this has been the most sensitive market to the u.s. election. it's considered a big loser of a trump presidency due to his positions on immigration, foreign policy and trade. at one point in september the peso traded at a record low. currencies do open for trade sunday afternoon, so this was the first reaction to those fbi headlines. and what you're seeing there is that weaker u.s. dollar, strong peso by 2%. that was the first tell that investors were really cheering the fbi's latest revelation that there's no criminal evidence in the latest batch of e-mails, guys. even the canadian dollar, another key trading partner, has been stronger on this news. you'll see the biggest reaction on the peso in the election whoever wins. if it's secretary clinton, it could be a more temporary and smaller move higher for the peso. if trump wins, you could see a bigger more pronounced decline for the peso down to 23. and that is a more than 20% drop

or devaluation from here, carl. >> speaking of all of that, one day left in this race for the white house. our john harwood's back at hq with the latest. good morning, john. >> carl, we talked last hour about the poll, last nbc/"the wall street journal" poll shows a four-point advantage for hillary clinton. but the electoral college is ultimately what's going to determine the outcome. let's look at the nbc news battleground state map. and what it shows is that hillary clinton has an edge in more than enough states to get above 270 electoral votes. you've got a bunch of toss-ups including arizona, georgia, florida, north carolina, ohio. the problem for donald trump is he needs to win almost all of those disputed states. he's got to break through in the blue states the democrats have consistently carried and build on mitt romney's 206 electoral votes. big challenges across that map from donald trump. he's racing around the country today trying to hit as many of them as he can. he's going to be in north carolina. that's in particular a state that president obama carried in

2008, lost in 2012. and hillary clinton will also be there for a midnight rally in raleigh, guys. >> john, thank you very much for that. earlier this morning on squawk, billionaire investor david tepper made his own choice known telling cnbc he is voting for clinton, but a republican down ballot. take a listen. >> definitely clinton's my choice. i'm not going to pull punches. but i am going to be down ticket republican. and i think that combination is best for the country right now. least dangerous for the country right now. >> meanwhile, analysis by the mcclel lan market report says a trump victory is likely. we're joined by the editor of mcclellan correctly predicted the outcome of the last four cycles, also a market timer for the past 12 months. he joins us this morning. tom, good to have you back. >> hi, carl. good to be with you. >> you've been tracking relationships between the indices and political polls for basically this entire cycle.

so what is it telling you at this moment? >> well, you have to understand that the stock market is a great discounter of public mood. public mood also shows up in the poll numbers. it's just that it shows up in the stock market first. it takes a long time to call people and gather up data in a poll and tabulate it and analyze it and publish it. so we find out several days later what people were thinking a few days ago in the poll numbers. last week we saw a pretty protracted decline and really a lot of fear showing up in things like the vix and the put call ratios. there's a lot of fear investors are feeling and voters are feeling. it just hasn't shown up yet in the poll numbers. but the market has given us the answer ahead of time. based on my analysis and bias in favor of using the stock market as an ipindicator of what peopl are really feeling ahead of time, i feel the popular vote is going to tip toward trump probably two to four points. it hasn't shown up yet in the polling averages, real clear politics is still as of this

morning's preliminary number 1.9 points in favor of mrs. clinton. but i think that's going to shift today if we get any poll numbers today and it will shift by the time we count the popular vote tomorrow. but as was noted earlier, that's really the electoral vote that counts. >> right. let's parse this a little bit. degree of certainty, where are you? >> oh, you can never be certain. and especially in 2016 because i think in the real clear politics average they have 24 different polling firms. when i started doing this back in 2000, we had two and didn't have to look anywhere and didn't have to do that much analyzing about who was a good or bad polling firm. but real clear politics tends to lump everybody all in together and treat them all equally. although interestingly they have haven't been featuring the rasmussen poll the last couple weeks and underweight the "los angeles times" poll both showing favorable numbers for mr. trump this past two weeks. >> tom, what exactly are you

seeing in the markets that suggests the popular vote goes to donald trump? just clarify that, will you? >> well, the behavior of the stock market in the week before the election is a real great indicator of how the mood is shifting. moods shift the whole summer and whole fall as we lead up to the election, so it's not like a poll that was taken in august was wrong about how the election was going to turn out. it's just people change their minds. and the last week before the election is very critical for determining or demonstrating how people are going to be changing their minds when they vote on tuesday. that decline we saw and all the stock market averages and the nine down days in a row, that was a powerful statement that people are really in a bad mood. and when they get in a bad mood, they don't like the incumbent or the incumbent party. that hasn't shown up yet in the poll numbers because of the lag it takes to get the poll numbers counted, tabulated and reported. >> how do you explain brexit then? when we saw a tremendous rally in the week before and the day before in the pound in global stocks on the idea that britain would vote to remain, and then

it went the opposite way? >> well, the people who were controlling the finances and the stock market in london, those people are all living in london where the grand consensus of everybody in london was for remain. but it was people outside of london that did most of the voting. so that surprised the markets and the financial center in london. and you got the quick sharp selloff because everybody in london thought, oh, no, we're leaving and it's a who l thing. and so they sold off stock prices. but then two days later the stock market rebounded more than twice the amount of the selloff. i think you're going to see a similar response this time. the stock market and the new york centric financial experts and also other markets around the world, they hold this opinion that mrs. clinton would be better, and so if trump wins there could be an initial disappointment. but the market exists to prove the majority wrong. i'm looking for a very bullish stock market regardless of who wins going starting right after the election and going into next year. >> tom, prediction markets,

we've been watching some of them including iowa where we're still looking for trades today. but goldman has a note saying that those prediction markets are assigning a higher probability of a clinton win than the polling suggests. how much relevance should those get, those markets? >> i saw that note this morning. and that's an even better question now in 2016 in light of how the prediction markets failed in the brexit vote. we found out afterwards that there were a lot of londoners betting in the prediction markets for the brexit vote because they thought it was a sure thing because everybody in their circle of friends said so. so i think we're probably seeing some of that same effect this time. people know more about the prediction markets now than they used to in years passed when the prediction markets worked really well. and so we may see a little bit contamination in those markets in terms of the quality of the message that we get from them. i'm not ready to pass judgment on it yet, but it is a fascinating change in the way that those things work in terms

of giving us a good message. >> finally, two changing dynamics that even tepper brought up this morning in his interview. one is changing demographics. it's hard to model since those are so dynamic, even from 12 regarding working white class -- working class whites and latinos. but also this dynamic of early voting. i mean, 40%'s going to be in the can before tomorrow, how do you account for that? >> very good point. and the fact that there has been early voting skews more in favor of mr. trump on the basis of the stock market being in decline last week. people may see a lightning of that depressing mood based on the stock market's rally today, which i'm enjoying because i got leveraged long on friday at the close for my managed account clients, but early feeling the full brunt of the selloff and the bad mood of last week, so it is changing. the other part of changing dynamics with regard to poll numbers there's so many more easy ways to reach people by even though we've been cutting the cord on our land lines,

people are just getting bombarded by polls. and people have learned that they can lie to the pollsters in terms of hoping to skew the results in a way that they might come out favorably for their voting preference. so i'm not sure that in the future we're going to have as accurate of polling as we've enjoyed in the past even though the information age makes it much easier to tabulate all that, doesn't mean that the quality of the responses are any better. >> that's great. tom, thanks for that. we're going to see what happens tomorrow. tom mcclellan joining us from out west. thanks again. we are getting a look, a final look here at wall street's expectations for the election and the implications for the market. wonder if they agree with tom mcclellan, our steve liesman joins us with a special fed survey election special. >> it's interesting to follow that guest because our respondents, 36 economists, fund managers and economists couldn't

disagree more. we asked wlahat happened to the stock market, we made an attempt to get beyond the immediate impact and see if there would be a lasting impact if clinton wins versus trump wins. you can see two big opinions here. the first is at 48% probably say that the stock market will be lower that trump wins. and 64% say it will be the same if clinton wins. that's an idea that a clinton victory is indeed baked into the market. so we asked by how much would you change your 2017 forecast if trump wins lower by ten percentage points, if clinton wins lower by nine percentage points. this is among those who say it will be lower. and then if trump wins those who say will be higher say higher by 8%. so those are some ideas to work with with this 10% number also agreeing with a study out there by justin and david -- from dartmouth about what would happen to the market if it declines. what about the fed? take a look here. if trump wins -- here's if

clinton wins they wouldn't change their 2017 forecast. and 41% say they wouldn't change it if trump wins either. but by how much? again, let's see the next numbers if they come up, yeah, 43 basis point decline if among those who say they would lower their forecast, 25 for clinton, 42 increase among those who say it would be higher. those are a little confusing, but basically not as much agreement on what would happen to the fed. just real quickly about the expectation how that disagrees with what mcclellan said, 78% say clinton is most likely to win, 8% say trump. that is little change before the whole e-mail reporting scandal from the fbi came out. it was 82% before that. who would be best for the economy? trump maintains a slight edge, but you can see here 69% say a clinton victory would be best for the stock market, which i guess disagrees a little bit with your last guest, sarah. >> yeah, absolutely, steve. any sense on the outlook for stocks beyond just the near-term reactions say in the event of a

trump presidency? is it a prolonged dip? because i was looking at some of the mexican peso forecasts and the view there is that this could last a long time if trump does win the presidency and does sort of follow through with some of his policies. >> i think that's right, sara. that's why we tried to get beyond the immediate impact because you can imagine the market adjusting quickly, maybe it has a selloff if donald trump were to win. i mean, you could expect it to come back. so that's why we asked about 2017. but there's a census lower, this group of people, these economists and fund managers are spooked by the trade aspect of this in the worst sort of way. that's really what gets them. they think trade is good for the economy. they think that erecting trade barriers or changing existing trade agreements would be bad for the u.s. economy overall. one other thing is that from what tom mcclellan said in your last segment there, it seemed to me that the market was going up and down with the chance of a trump victory, and that's why it sold off. so the idea that somehow there

was some broader point about the state of the electorate seemed to be a bit of a stretch from what i could hear. >> yeah, i mean, that's certainly one theory. on trade, and i did hear mohamed el aar-erian talk about this on "squawk box," how much authority does a president have over trade and over trade deals and opening up something like nafta which has been in place for decades? >> i don't know that nafta could be directly opened up, but certainly it's something that a president could set a direction for, set a mood for. but, sara, i'd offer you this idea that the idea that the peso declined with the chance of a trump victory increasing, you realize that made mexico more competitive. >> yeah, he's helping them. >> so it's really an interesting dynamic whether or not nafta all it does is equalize the effect of a cheaper peso on the u.s./mexico in terms of trade. >> good point. yes, they get the ultimate trade advantage in the form of a weaker currency. >> right. >> steve, thank you. our steve liesman. >> thanks.

when we return, it is the final day until the election. we'll break down the policy issues and what it's going to mean for your money. grover norquist is our next guest. and a big trump warning from the deputy mayor of new york. she's worked with the presidential nominee for decades in commercial real estate. and she'll be joining us. take a look at stocks this hour. the celebration continues with the dow up 258 points. s&p 500 up 32. that's more than 1.5%. and the nasdaq up 89, up 1.76%. financials are the best performers. we'll be right back. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.

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after more than 16 months on the trail, hillary clinton and donald trump making their last sales pitches to voters today despite all the battleground polls it all comes down to just who shows up on election day. tomorrow night we will likely know the answer. joining us this morning the always outspoken grover norquist, the president of americans for tax reform. grover, good to have you back. good morning. >> good to see you. >> what do you think's going to happen? >> oh, dear. well, i think it's very good news that bloomberg's poll has the house republicans up by six points, which is -- i mean up by three points, which is extremely helpful. and the senate looks good as well. the presidency could go either way, as you say on turnout, but a republican house and senate stops a lot -- some of the damage that a hillary presidency could do. >> has it been frustrating for you the degree to which tax policy or really any policy has

been overshadowed by character trust? >> yeah. well, yes. and there's a lot at stake here. trump's tax plan is taking the corporate rate from 35 to 15, the house republicans are largely in agreement full expensing territoriality, very healthy. hillary's is a trillion-plus tax increase, no rate reduction, business or individual, as a matter of fact every kwen tile does better with trump's the poorest, richest, middle class all do better with trump's tax proposal. so taxes haven't been discussed. but there are labor law issues that are front and center. hillary clinton says she wants to crackdown on independent contracting, that the nlrb with obama's appointments is working to make uber illegal because he wants every uber driver to be an employee, which means uber doesn't work. and worse -- or bigger, is what both obama and hillary are planning to do or are on track

to do is franchises. if you're invested in a franchise company, you're in big trouble if hillary's there because she'll keep the nlrb the way it is. and they want to make every mcdonald's manager an employee, and every mcdonald's local employee an employee of corporate. easier to sue, easier to tax, and you destroy the franchise structure in the u.s. which is a unique american advantage. so watch stock prices of any company that structures as a franchise if hillary wins the presidency, even a republican senate can't save you. >> yeah. we've asked you all along all throughout the cycle whether or not donald trump signed the pledge. you essentially said it was coming. did you ever get it? >> no, he's not signed the pledge. i was told that they had. he has not publicly signed the pledge. and when we've asked for it we don't have it. he is not made a commitment not to raise taxes. he has committed with significant tax cut first thing, which is good and healthy.

but he has not yet made a commitment to the american people never to raise taxes. hillary's made a commitment to raise taxes dramatically. i would feel more comfortable if trump would make that commitment in writing. but watch labor law. the differences on labor law are as dramatic. and you can't reform education in new york city or l.a. or san francisco until you take on the labor contracts that the teachers unions have. and trump says he wants to have parental choice. and hillary is told the unions she'll support their opposition now to more charter schools, which is a real back peddling on what we thought was a bipartisan movement towards education reform. >> grover, you're touting all of the lower taxes within donald trump's plan, but i always thought of you as a fiscal conservative. >> i am. >> so i'm kind of surprised many independent analysts have shown that trump's plan puts the u.s.

deeper in the red than hillary clinton's plan. neither of them are talking about cutting medicare or any social security programs that would actually cut america's debt. >> well, actually, if you look at the republican plan that paul ryan has put forward that is five times passed the house of representatives to block grant not just aid to families -- >> i'm talking about trump's plan. >> if trump gets elected there will be a republican house and senate, and you can save the kind of tax spending, the spending dollars that need to be saved to both reduce rates and to have economic growth. the democrats opposed block granting aid to families with independent children, turned out to be very successful. we can and should do the same thing with medicaid and food stamps and other needs tested welfare proposals. that saves a great deal of resources, not touching medicare or social security. social security takes 60 votes. but most important you take that corporate rate from 35 down to

15 or 20 and the united states becomes competitive with the rest of the world in a way that we aren't when the european averages 25%, we're at 35, no one's up as high and as stupid as american tax policy. and we also have the worldwide tax system rather than a territorial system which would also advantage american companies if we move as trump and the house republicans, senate republicans wish to do. house and senate are as important as the presidency. >> yeah. >> obviously a trump election guarantees a house and senate republican. >> a lot of other races to cover besid besides potus tomorrow night, for sure. grover, thanks. >> watch governorship too. >> okay. of course grover will be watching we assume you will too, our special coverage tomorrow night beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. our election coverage continues. we've got a warning from rudy

giuliani deputy mayor of new york alicia glen tells us what it's like actually working with presidential nominee donald trump. plus we'll hear from the former republican governor of indiana mitch daniels. much more ahead on "squawk on the street" with the dow surging here 260 points. now that fedex has helped us simplify our e-commerce, we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann. i've always admired how you just say what's in your head, without thinking. very brave. good point ted.

you're living proof that looks aren't everything. thank you. welcome. so, fedex helped simplify our e-commerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. i just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. what's that supposed to mean? fedex. helping small business simplify e-commerce.

what is it like to work with donald trump in new york city? well, our next guest has done it saying, quote, donald trump is probably worse than any other developer in his relentless pursuit of every single dime of taxpayer subsidies he can get his paws on. alicia glen is the deputy mayor of new york city. she previously worked under mayor rudy giuliani. of course a big-time trump supporter. welcome to you, deputy mayor. >> thank you. thank you for having me. >> tell us a little bit about your experience, what sort of projects you worked on with donald trump real estate developer. >> sure, when i was a very young assistant commissioner in the rudy giuliani administration, i oversaw a lot of tax programs the city has to encourage affordable housing and market rate housing. and i have to say it was extraordinary to the degree to which he would just keep hammering home his entitlement every single dime that was

available. you know, normally in a give and take with developers, particularly people who are longstanding new york citizens, there's a conversation that happens between the public sector and developer about what is going to be delivered for the people of new york in return for the tax abatement. and quite frankly he wasn't interested in that conversation. he wanted every single dime, and he was absolutely relentless in his pursuit. >> we should say he didn't do anything illegal, right? you're not accusing him of that. and in fact your previous boss even said the fact he was able to do this made him smart. >> well, i mean, it's one thing to say somebody's smart because of relentless and will go after every possible dime and not leave anything on the table. i would argue that life is long and developers in this town who are responsible developers and understand the public policy objectives have often wanted to work with us. and, you know, there's ways in which you interpret the regulations. he was absolutely not interested in having that dialogue. i don't think it makes you smart to get every dime you possibly can out of the taxpayers, or by the way not pay your taxes which

he also seems to be quite proud of. that's not the kind of leader we want for america. we want people to pay their taxes to enter into publ public/private partnerships to advance goals. >> it's been interesting to me of course a lifelong new york resident, i'm sure you know many of the new york real estate developers, i think the sense of mr. trump and the rest of the country is he's one of the main guys in new york. but he really isn't. >> i would say that's absolutely not true. i mean, he has become more of a brand than an actual developer. there are some extraordinarily talented long-term developers in this city who are building buildings and advancing the agenda around a great mix use, mixed income city and have been working with us. i've worked with rudy giuliani, worked with de blasio, i'm telling you donald trump is not one of the great developers of new york city. >> you're say thag because he didn't develop a lot of buildings or your afoefr mentioned qualms. >> i think both. i think a lot of the buildings donald trump was associated with he in fact wasn't the developer or had the equity interest he

often talks about having in projects. so i think he's been a brilliant marketer and been able to license his name quite effectively, but when you think about the great developers of new york city who've been operating here for new york city, i wouldn't put him in that category. >> this hardball tactic that he took with the public sector, what did it cost him? because it sounds listening to his supporters it sounds affirmative, right? he goes hard, he deals hard. >> i mean, what it cost him is he really lost the trust of a lot of people in the public sector here to do really important things and create the cities that we all want to see. he really since that time has not been engaged in any meaningful residential development in new york city. he really is not one of the people who we talk to every day about what the city is going to look like in the 21st century. as we know his business really disbursed across the country. he's not part of the real estate civic elite of this town. >> what would you say to those who say it's on you? it's on those at city hall that cozied up to him and befriended him and let him get away with some of these tax breaks? >> i don't think we cozied up to

him. again, there are programs on the books. some are open to interpretation and developers want to take advantage of those opportunities. but as i say there's always a give and take in negotiation around how big a building is going to be, how many units are going to be in the building for low income people. and he simply did not want to engage in that conversation. i don't think that's about cozying up. that's about people in the public sector trying to get the best deal for taxpayers. these are taxpayer dollars. >> we're also talking about real estate developers. and if you know anything about them, they're not exactly -- you know, they've got some pretty sharp knives. they're a tough bunch. i mean, some would say, well, if he's a tough negotiator, that's a good thing especially amongst a group that is known for being very, very difficult. >> i think that's true, but i think what i think of short-term greedy and long-term smart. i think most people and i spent over a decade on wall street, would also argue to not take a little bit of a breath and realize every deal you don't have to fight to the death for because every day you're losing trust, with your public

partners, private sector partners. we need to have more people in the tent coming up with constructivity solutions for the problems we're facing, not pounding the desk and demanding like a child they get everything they're technically entitled to. >> before we go i want to give you an opportunity to talk about this new equal pay act new york city implemented, how it works and you think other cities are going to follow. >> i hope they are. this is about end the cycle of pay discrimination. in the city of new york we've passed a law and order meaning for everybody who works for the city of new york cannot ask about what the old salary was, you can only be asked about qualificationings for this job and skills for this job. all too often for women and people of color they often start at lower salaries. so to have that compounded year after year or movement after movement really results in what we see now, which is extraordinary gap between what women and people of color make. and white men make. so anything we can do as leaders and we are after all the center of the global economy to show

that we will not tolerate pay discrimination, that's incredibly important. so we're excited about it. we know other cities are looking at it. >> did trump really pound the desk? did he really go like this in front of you? >> i want to make sure i'm not saying it's 100% true, maybe it's my own nightmares coming back to me but i have a lot of pounding imagery in my head. >> could have been "the apprentice" as well. >> could have been. >> alicia glen thank you for joining us. dow holding to 268. let's get cnbc update with sue herera at hq. >> hi, carl. good morning. here's what's happening at this hour everyone. plumes of smoke rising above a village outside of mosul as kurdish forces exchange heavy fire with isis militants. the kurds launching mortar rounds and heavy artillery sunday advance of the offensive. united nations climate talks opening in morocco. talks will continue through november 18th. emergency workers assessing the damage in cushing, oklahoma,

after a 5 point earthquake hit the city. the downtown area was blocked off and power out for about two hours. and janet reno, the first woman to serve as u.s. attorney general has died from complications of parkinson's disease. crime dropped steadily during her eight years in office, the first decline in decades. but she was criticized for approving an fbi raid on a texas religious cult and her role in the saga of cuban boy elio gonzalez. janet reno was 78 years old. that is the news update this hour. carl, back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. sue herera. dow up 274, best day since june. latter sigh of june. meanwhile, we'll continue to talk about the election and its impact on important states like florida and the markets in a moment. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." with its 29 electoral votes, certainly florida will be key for donald trump. and according to most experts he cannot win the presidency without winning florida. our diana olick is there live. and she joins us with more on this story behind the state. good morning, diana. >> good morning. a quinnipiac poll just released a few hours ago shows the florida race in a dead heat, hillary clinton at 46%, donald trump at 45%. well within the margin of error. now, half of florida's registered voters have already voted. early voting is now closed. democrats turned out in greater numbers than republicans, but by a very thin margin. 40% democrats to 39% republicans. and this is just who voted. it is not how they voted. over a million unaffiliated voters have already cast ballots as well. we do know there was a surge in hispanic voters who represent

17% of the florida electorate. we're here in port st. lucie, florida, one of the hardest hit areas in the recession, just over 10% of residents here lost their homes to foreclosure and one in five are still under water on their mortgages today. the homes in this community are now selling some of them for half of what they did a decade ago. so you know these folks are voting with their pocketbooks. >> i know she has the experience. >> she has the experience. >> she's been there, done it. >> the clintons seem to be interested in their own financial future, and mr. trump seems to be interested in the country's financial future. >> most analysts agree donald trump cannot win without florida. the math just doesn't work. the last candidate to win the presidency without florida was bill clinton in 1992. back to you guys. >> it will be an important one to watch. diana, thank you. joining us now to talk more about the electoral map, veteran democratic strategist and former pollster to both bill and

hillary clinton, mark penn. mark, welcome. >> thank you. >> just in the interest of disclosure, are you working at all with the clinton campaign now? i know you helped lead her 2008 presidential campaign. >> nope. i'm enjoying this campaign. it's a really rough campaign. but i think finally we're getting to the end of it. >> so 538, which a lot of people are citing, certainly here on wall street shows 66% chance for her at this point. do you agree with those odds? >> i think that's about accurate. i think today you'd probably up it to 70. i think that, you know, comey coming out was quite helpful. i think we're seeing the surge in latino voters, i think you're seeing a slight shift in her direction in the final days here. i think there was -- trump had some momentum, but that seems to have been fading. and i think also the campaign has been very good at trying to close any back door way that trump might have through the electoral college. i think most of the polls are

showing a couple-point advantage for hillary clinton at this point. and so you really have to watch the electoral college. is there a way for him to come in through the rust belt? i think and that's why you see everybody out there in michigan and other places i think to effectively block that. >> you really think this latest bombshell from comey two days before the election is going to make an impact? >> i think what it does is it cuts the momentum that trump had. i think trump had some momentum going into the tail end of the week. i think now you're seeing voters saying, you know, if that's off the table, wlost going to be more responsible with the economy, who's going to be more responsible with our nuclear weapons, who can handle the complexities of foreign affairs. i think you're seeing voters kind of rethink that finally. and those that held back i think are breaking a little bit more for hillary. and that is why you're seeing her go up in most of the polls. >> mark, i'd love to just dig into your polling expertise. i mean, looking at some of these estimates of race change in florida on the early vote, hispanic up 87%, whites up 27%,

how much of this is being oversold? >> well, look, i think that it is a pretty important factor. i think when you look at how this race is going to come out, i think african-american turnout probably down a little bit, but probably still near record highs. i think you have to remember if you go back to 1992 the latino vote was less than 2%. it is the largest growth vote in the country. and donald trump is a latino turnout machine. he has really awakened, i think, the latino voters. and i think on the other two other constituencies which is how are independent women breaking, he had them, he lost them. a lot of them after "hollywood access," and then you have the down scale male factor. can he bring out a lot of down scale men who haven't voted before? that's the biggest factor in his advantage. i think right now it's being outweighed by the other factors. but if you look at those three or four things, those are the key constituencies that this election really came about. >> so do you think it's decisive

in florida, or more so colorado, nevada, out west? >> yeah. i think this puts kind of florida just out of reach of trump if i really had to bet on it. i know the polls are quite close, but they really don't show trump ahead. i think it puts like nevada where i think the latino vote early vote drive has been very effective out of reach. i think that strategy is blocked by the very strategy that trump adopted. he really needed to do a pennsylvania, a michigan, a minnesota. he needed to have success in the rust belt outside of ohio. and he seemed to have woken up to that fact relatively late. >> mark, people come back to the vote in the uk in brexit in terms of saying, well, the polls can't be necessarily believed, nor can the markets by the way where investors always thought to have a good sense of these things. sent the markets upright before of course britain voted to leave. is there any analogous situation

here? >> i think that's where you have to look very carefully at are there kind of white male voters who typically are what i call the 94 million couch potato voters, among the people who sit out on elections even though they're eligible. there are a lot of them. but i think you take a look at new hampshire, and if you're sitting on election night new hampshire were to go heavily for trump, wow, that would change the odds greatly. i think if it goes heavily for clinton, i would say you're going to have a much earlier night than you expected. and if it's close, i think you're going to have to look to florida and how that comes out. i think that's really some of the key moving pieces that would tell you, hey, we have a brexit. >> very quickly, mark, we don't have a lot of time. but did he just totally change the game for people like you the fact that he's being outspent by nearly double, has very little ground game and is still having so much traction in key states? >> no, look, i think the campaigns change with modern communication. when i started, the tv spot was new and the idea you could break

the organization with a tv spot was revolutionary. now i think you're going to see that mass political events amplified by the internet, you know, enable people to get their message out for less. and i think that's going to be a powerful factor. i don't think it breaks the model. i think it makes the model and political involvement in this country all that bigger. >> it is stunning to see the difference on the states there by more than double in many of them. mark penn, thank you for joining us a day ahead of the election. >> thank you. >> make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night november 8th, beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. that's going to be right here on cnbc. when we come back, our election coverage continues. former indiana republican governor mitch daniels will join us. and we're watching to see if any of this fades here. dow opened about at these levels. we're up 272. we're back in a minute.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." markets in rally mode as you can see there. financials outperforming all s&p 500 sectors, up by 2.25%. the leaders today, you've got charles schwab, regions financial, keycorp all up, bank stocks helping to lift the entire sector higher with the spider s&p banking etf, that ticker kbe, and the regional bank etf, ticker kre, both gaining over 2% as well in early trading. those etfs on track for their best day since early august, david. back over to you guys. all right, thank you very much. the s&p up 1.73%, dom. now let's get over to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. he's got "the santelli exchange." good morning, rick. >> good morning. david. i like to welcome my special guest the day before the election, ex-governor of indiana

and current president of purdue university, mitch daniels. thank you for taking the time, sir. >> good being back, rick. >> quickly, two issues considering your resume i would like to speak to are debt and education. on the first, a lot of campaigning whether in 2012 or currently, the biggest drop in the federal deficit in percentage terms ever, that is true, sir. but 2009 at 1.4, '10, '11, and '12 all over a trillion, the story isn't the percentage drop. the story is the record, the records that were established and now we're back in more normal areas. mr. daniels, my question to you is, we haven't heard anything but promises we can't keep regarding how they end up in debt, debt that we mostly can't pay, and we underestimate to the public at large. neither candidate seems to be concerned with it. your thoughts, sir.

>> mine are like yours, rick. there've been a lot to be discouraged about during this election, but to me maybe the single biggest factor is that the most tran sen dent issue, the one that clouds the future of our country, certainly the i, certainly the young people in our country, even our democratic processes didn't get discussed at all, that is to say the national dealt, which has doubled in the last eight years, which is at levels we know are unsustainable and which cloud the future for the economic future of this nation in a very ominous way, and neither candidate that's only honest to say had anything useful to say about it. they talked about things that would make it worse, so that will be the work of the next presidency, and let's hope they are a little more serious than they were as a candidate. >> on education, it just never ceases to amaze me that school choice by the party that always talks about trying to expand

people's minds and the democratic party, mr. trump seems to be more for it. what is wrong with voters and their families getting choice as to how to educate their children, sir? >> it's only wrong when they are denied that choice. if there is a issue that qualifies for the now familiar term social justice, this is it. when rich people tell poor people that our kids can go to a good school, we'll either live in a good district, public district, or send them to private school, when a high percentage, more than half in many places of our public school teachers send their own kids to other schools and then tell poor people you can't, that's really an injustice if we've ever seen one. the waiting list for charter schools, the uptick rate where other forms of choice are available prove that low income families and minority families in particular are looking for something better for their children. they are just as capable of making those choices as their

richer counterparts and it's too bad special interest politics continues to try to deny them that basic ability and freedom. >> with regard to your current role as president of purdue university, there has been many trends lately that seem to correlate with the big growth in social media. it seems though many students that go to college aren't just open to the types of discussions maybe in the '60s, '70s, and '80s where lines aren't necessarily black and white, things are gray, any thoughts about young people today at your university? >> i can tell you that at purdue university, and i got ways to prove this, our students are very purposeful, they are serious, they are career minded. doesn't mean they don't care about other issues and don't have things to say about them, and we've protected their free speech here in a way that very few schools do, but ours is a place for serious students. we have tried to react to their

needs. we've frozen tuition here at purdue. this is the fourth year in a row and it will continue at least one more year. it's less expensive to go to our school all-in than it was years ago. >> mr. daniels, we are out of time. thank you for your thoughts on debt and education. david faber, back to you, sir. >> all right, thank you very much, mr. santelli. now let's send it to john ford. he's going to give us a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley" at the top of the hour. john? >> we're going to continue with the theme and look at historically how the markets perform at times like this, whether it's a democrat or republican who wins the presidency. we're also going to talk to a couple venture capitalists about the future for tech and startups under either scenario and finally take a look at the culture with the founders of the skim. they registered a lot of people to vote. that could be an impact. all that and more coming up on "squawk alley".

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again. when you look at how she dealt with e-mails, unless there's something out of left field that we couldn't possibly have predicted and she said something that was incorrect in both of those interviews, then i don't think there's anything at all to worry about. >> that, of course, was mark cuban on "squawk alley" last week predicting the fbi's decision on hillary clinton's e-mails. turns out he was right, so we give him credit. that does it for us here on "squawk on the street." all 30 dow components are higher. we have a broad rally up 284 and "squawk alley" is next. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly

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good monday morning. we are less than 24 hours away from election day. "squawk alley" is live. ♪