tv Fast Money CNBC November 9, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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personalities, right? back and forth and up and down. and really no one knows what's happening next. but i do think that once things settle down and once we start to hear some words coming out of his mouth about policy and where we go from here and what's the path, i think things will settle down. >> well, danny and michael, thank you for a interesting couple of hours. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. i pledge to every citizen of our land that i will be president for all americans, and this is so important to me. >> and there you have it. a stunning outcome for the presidential election leading to a stunning day for the markets. we were down 800 points and furious overnight action before slowly coming back before the open and then stocks took off. the dow soaring 250 points and now within just about ooh points of its all-time closing high. the s&p 500 closing at its highest level since october 10th, about 1% from its all-time
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high. this show is about one thing and one thing only. your money. guy adami, the biggest question people have is, why did the market get this wrong? >> well, i -- completely -- listen, i know i got it wrong. i didn't see any path for victory for him. one of the things he said was a trump victory, if it were to happen, see an immediate soften in the market, 24 in the s&p. we got that part right. i was on the network around 2:15 in the morning, at the trough of the market and i thought it was going to extend its losses 100% categorically, continue to go lower. why it reversed and closed on the highs today is a bit of a mystery to me. some of the sectors we did talk about, pete can speak to the banks. look what happened to some of the industrial names. look what happened to defense stocks. i think those continue to go higher from here. >> well, i mean, guy, i'm guessing it was a combination of a couple things. one is that conciliatory speech which began to offer in the predictability. probably most important is this full sweep. so suddenly, i've got economists
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in my mailbox this morning saying we're going to upgrade gdp because we think fiscal stimulus will get through quickly, it will be tax reform immediately and we're going to remove significant bureaucracy which is a headwind or keeping the economy on break. so i think those are the things that people were selling into today. and frankly, i think they got a little too giddy. it's amazing to me that the same -- let's put it this way. i think the market could have thought of a republican sweep and yet never even came close to this kind of a reaction. >> i mean, the conventional wisdom, and granted conventional wisdom got us nowhere when it came to predicting anything about this election. conventional wisdom would have had that divided government is better for stocks. and here we have full republican control and we're close to record highs. >> yeah, well, listen. i think it also has to do with -- i think these guys are correct. there was a lot of confusion last night. did you see the move overnight in the dollar. you saw the massive surge in treasury yields today.
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i mean, there's a lot of stuff going on that i think was left a lot of market participants head-scratching. and let me tell you something, for the first time during an election what we saw people on news channels pointing to the stock market, what was going on there. and i think that really perm mated through, you know, the public. so when they got in this morning, they said, okay, to tim's point, maybe that speech, maybe we're going to see a different guy than we saw on the campaign trail. >> here's a simple question. i'm going to boil it down to the very basics. trump wins, republicans control congress. stocks rally to record highs. >> yeah. >> does that make sense to you? >> no. i was surprised. i mean, i really truly was. i thought that that 800-point move to guy's point was actually going to probably extend. but then suddenly when you saw the defense stocks that i know you highlighted it, guy. we were talking about that, talking about lockheed martin and names in the defense world. they came for those and then infrastructure and then suddenly it seemed as if everything was back on the table. it seemed as if the market was
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beginning to chase a little bit, because by the time we got to the opening trade of the day, we were flat. we were down 800 overnight. plus. and suddenly, 500, 300. and then we were flat. and when we hit that flat spot, boy, i think people just decided to say, we've got to be involved in this market and these -- everything was taking off. >> dig into -- we were talking about bond yields, right, surging. so we had a massive selloff, the dollar and going to levels we haven't seen since october. this is a distinctly risk-on -- does this hold in your view? >> guess what, you know, yesterday's trades are the trades that work today, as well. so we're talking about industrials, talking about reflation trades, talking about commodities. oil was not down 5 herself overnight. in fact, almost immediately, oil caught a bit -- or at least held ground, which tells you, first of all, trump is positive for oil. but the trades working -- banks have worked all year. the fact of the matter, the bl curve steepened 18 basis points. it's still flatter than it was in november of last year.
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so i don't think anything in terms of how people were playing this market changed much today. but i do think, obviously, it took away just the overhang. and it gave people some animal spirit. >> bond market move was unbelievable -- ten-year last night trading to 1.72%. i don't know if it went lower or not. to tim's point, it then -- >> up 2%. >> huge move, right? now, so one has to question -- so my thesis was, if trump is going to repudiate everything, one of my big points has been, a lot of this market is predicated on fed activity. by definition it should be negative for the market. exactly the opposite happened. i do think a fed rate move is in the cards in december. but the market -- today, at least, absolutely didn't seem to care. >> one other thing that really stood out today by far was everything about hillary was, what? talking about health care. talking about biotechs and phrmas. how about the move we had out of those. it was absolutely incredible when you see merck hitting 52-week highs. a lot of stocks in the whole area. the biotechs were on fire today.
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that was really, really impressive to watch how fast people flooded in back into that trade once we found out that -- >> biotechs up 15% in the last four sessions. >> it has -- >> no -- >> i want to quickly run through some of these sectors that saw outside moves. do you hold on to these big moves or do you fade these moves? back to defense. you and jim cramer stick with it. >> yes, valuations -- might be stretched but i think the stocks continue to go higher from here. >> infrastructure names, caterpillar, uri, just to name a couple. you stick with this pop or fade it? >> i tell you what. certainly i think caterpillar could be defended here. high short interest. i would go with refiners. the epa may be in trouble. the biofuel credits being attached to refiners, a huge cost. they may be coming off entirely. i think those where you can really point to a secular fundamental change. >> another sector within a sector, within health care. and that would be the so-called obamacare stocks. are we to believe that aca will be repealed, and if so, that could have an outside impact on
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hospitals, as well as medicaid providers? >> go to him. i don't know. >> these were down double digits. >> i don't want to get in front of those, because i happen to agree. and i think that that's going to be repealed. so because of that, i don't think you want to get in front of that. i do think that we had a great move out of biotechs, a great move out of big phrma. i think this move is a little bit exaggerated now. so i'm -- i took off some today. a took a lot off today. >> i know we got howard. when we talked about this months ago, the potential for trump -- if he was elected, to be able to allow people to repate rate their dollars. who has the most dollars domiciled offcease, what specific company? apple. what did apple do today? >> that's one thing that donald trump was not shy about doing. he came after apple. he called for a boycott, came after amazon with jeff bezos. against the visa situation. we know these tech companies rely on it. so tech may have a tough slog for the next little bit. >> is that a problem for the markets overall? >> listen, i'll tell you this. if you guys have been waiting
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now, you've been waiting for new leadership. we have talking about the concentration and taking the baton. if we're going to see, you know -- if we're going to see financials, biotech phrma start to get on their horse, we know biotech has a ton of room to go. >> small cap, too, by the way. and it should have been under pressure with yields going higher, typically. >> speaking of financials, they were one of the big winners today. our next guest says it's about to get better. howard lutnick, ceo and chairman of bgc partners, joins us in a cnbc exclusive. welcome to the show. >> great to see you. >> you see the move in the financials and you think there are a couple things that could be going on. speaking of the yield curve, of course. as well as perhaps the prospect of decreased regulation. what was a bigger driver. >> it's decreased regulation. i mean, you have a republican house, you have a republican senate, and you have a businessman at the top who has borrowed money his whole life. he thinks -- you want to get the economy running again, let banks lend. let's get those banks back to
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lending. take elizabeth warren out of the headlines, and let's get these banks lending. and that's going to drive bank stocks crazy, because finally, finally, they can go back to doing what they do well and maybe that will help the economy. >> how much decreased regulation. what do you think will be peeled back? >> well, the volcker rule, right? all the basel iii, 4, all these things that say the newest rule is coming, you can't lend the same on real estate. you have to hold more reserves. you think that's coming in with donald trump in the white house? no way. >> but howard -- i've got to ask you this, okay? so donald trump's final statement. you know that two-minute thing, he talked about the global power structure and he put one of your peers, lloyd blankfein in the ad. that didn't freak you out as somebody who runs a business like that? >> look. he has got all sorts of things running through his mind. but ultimately, deep inside of him, he is a borrower, and he is a driver of business. he thinks in his soul that banks legend money and that drives the
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economy. that's how he has made all his money. that's how everything he has done -- so you've got to rely upon the fact, he's going to let banks do more things. he's not going to maybe not think about investment banks doing more of this or that. but just banks letourneau leblond lending to people and lending more money. you've going to see financials explode higher, because they're going to do better without the shackles being put on him and put on him and put on him. and by the way, i think that's going to be really good for the economy. because i've always had this view that banks are the children of the fed. you beat on them when '08 happens. but you don't shoot them. you take them to the shed and you give them a spanking, right? but we've got to realize that the banks lending to our economy is going to help drive our economy. >> but they saved them in '08. they saved them. and because of the deregulation that took place in the prior decade, they were in the situation they were, howard. so what you're saying doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. they didn't beat on them. they saved them. >> i'm just pointing out that the president of the united states might think to himself, 1929, bad things happened.
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in 2008, bad things happened. bad things happened to me, and look what's happened to me, i'm the president of the united states. and look what's happened to the united states of america. sometimes bad things happen. you can't protect bad things all of the time. you've got to grow. and include everyone. and i think deep inside of him, he's going to want the banks to letourneau leblond more. he's going to defend that. the regulators -- because the republicans and the house and the senate, they're going to drive it, and you're going to see financials do better and better. because that's going to be the undertone. let banks legend. >> but howard, haven't banks been able to legend? what's been the primary impediment? jp morgan has shown their loan book has been growing. i get we're a banks multiple should be trading at a discount because of regulatory impact. but really, hasn't it been the economy? hasn't it been the headwinds in their core business? >> no, no. what's happened lately is that the regulators continue to say, you need to hold more capital for every dollar that you legend. so your money -- you become less efficient before you used to be able to lend $15 for every
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dollar. now you can only lend $10 for every dollar. >> are you saying these guys were maxed out? >> yeah, they can't lend more because the cost of lending gets higher and higher. if he brings that down by regulation, banks are going to lend more. it's going to help the economy. and it's a donald trump world. i'm just saying, from donald trump's perspective, this is good. there are plenty of people who have all sorts of different arguments. donald trump that i know, that's what he thinks on the inside. he thinks that's going to help our economy grow. >> have you talked to him recently? >> i vkd talked to him since he's been elected president. he's got a big crowd around him. he came to gbc's charity day. while he was running on september 11th, while running for office, he came by to do charitable work with us on 9/11. and you know how much we suffered on 9/11. i mean, that's -- you know, that's somebody who is actually -- however the media portrays the guy, the guy came by, he was kind and warm and cared. and helped us raise money. and i got huge respect for that. >> i want to get for our viewers to the kinds of banks that will
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do best under that scenario. in your view, what kind of bank? >> the commercial lenders. but everybody is a bank now. goldman sachs is a bank. morgan stanley is a bank. you don't think of them as banks but these guys are barn banks. the rules on how they can lend will soften and that's why they jump today. no one has talked a nice thing about a bank in eight years in a row. and today without anybody talking about him, right? look at goldman sachs. up 5%, right? 5% today. all these companies up 4, 5 -- our company up 4% today because we do business with banks. we do business with banks. if you unleash the banks, it's good for us. >> i'm going extrapolate what you're saying. i'm guessing you think these kinds of market gains will continue. the market will be better off under donald trump presidency as opposed to under a president clinton presidency, is that correct. >> i think the banks -- >> what i'm getting at -- >> lending will help the economy. it's a driver of the economy.
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it will help. we can't just have central banks cutting to zero. you have to have -- different kind of fiscal policy. once upon a time, bill clinton got a lot of credit for the clinton tax cut, refinancing everybody, right? this may be the donald trump example. get banks to lend and that's fiscal policy driven by business. >> i'm not trying to necessarily get a market call out of you. i'm just trying to gauge whether this sort of trading activity is going to continue. what did you see today? i imagine you saw tremendous volume crossing the desk, right -- across -- does this keep pace? >> i like financials here. i like financials for the good long run, because there's lots of positive news coming on financials. not today. today is just imaginary, right? but you're going to see over the next 18 months, positive news about financials. and not elizabeth warren saying take them all to the shed and beat on them. let's get these guys out and let's see if we can get thlendi again. >> to your question real quick. whether he did it or not last night, a headline came out and
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said carl icahn -- the s&p futures, that seemed to stem the tide, along with the speech that tim talked about, as well. the protectionist policies he has talked about, that was he ran on by definition that's not bullish. in my opinion, for the stock market. so whether he goes through with it or not is a different conversation. i'll take him at his word. i don't know how that is bullish in any stretch of the imagination. >> lower interest rates are great for stocks, right? we all know that. interest rates are creeping upward. we all know that. i think more lending is going to raise interest rates a little bit. we all know that. so i think the macro stock market, right, that's got raising interest rates as a lid on it, but i think a growing economy has got to be good for stocks. overall, i like the stock market here. i just like it. i think a practice business concept is just something different. it's exactly -- just something different. you could like it or not like it. but we're all talking about how different it is right here, right now. it's totally different. >> thank you, howard.
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appreciate howard lutnick, bgc and cantor fitzgeralfitzgerald. yesterday your final trade was e financial. and they were off the charts. >> the financials took off to howard's point. every one of them. across the board. the cme group took off in a nice way, as well. >> because of higher volumes. >> you start seeing this happen at once. i use the opportunity to do trimming. i actually sold citi, goldman sachs. i sold several of them. at the end of the day, i actually added to bank of america. and the reason i did was, suddenly i started to see all of this incredible activity come in there, mel. when i see somebody coming and buy 95,000,000 calls in a stock, i have to be a participant. i had trimmed, i got back in. >> howard makes some good points there. but to be fair, donald trump came in on a populist movement. and i don't really believe that these people that voted for him that had this movement really want to see -- >> shooting against wall street. >> that's my main point. i don't think those markets mesh particularly well.
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i think it's a euphoria about it and i don't think dodd/frank is coming back any time soon. still ahead, the five biggest stocks in the s&p 500 missed out on the rally today. what gives? we've got the names and whether or not this is a buying opportunity. plus, a war could be brewing in washington between donald trump and janet yellen. who will come out ahead and will the market suffer. top bond manager weighs na. and the pressure lifts with a big trump win. we'll hear what the ceo of mylan had to say about the long-term impacts on the industry. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event.
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welcome back to "fast money." we've got a news alert on twitter. seema mody is in the news room with a story. >> another management change at twitter. chief operating officer, adam bane, to leave the company to explore new opportunities. the company appointing anthony noto as coo. the company is initiating a search for the chief financial officer position to succeed noto. but, again, coo, adam bain, leaving the company to explore new opportunities. we're looking at the stock down about 3.7% after having a pretty good session intraday. back to you, melissa. >> seema mody, thank you.
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dan? >> we know there was that whole supposed process that sale process. i suspect there was a division between jack dorsey at williams, one of the co founders who did want to sell the company. maybe -- bain was more with williams and noto more the other way around. so, listen, i suspect that here's the group that wants to get the thing sold and probably will get sold and then dorsey is going to be out. >> isn't that really -- this is just another revolving door in the c suite for a company that needs stability. and the reason they -- i don't think they are really trying to shop it that hard. sounds like you don't either. >> i don't think dorsey wanted to sell. and bain probably didn't want to sell. >> but, i mean, it's really about this company getting their legs under them. it's about what the political process has done for the company and the exposure and people realize how big and valuable an asset it is. this shouldn't get you excited because they're dressing it up to sell. >> i want to ask more about the whole political process. twitter had an outstanding day
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today. out outperformed markets, outperformed technology. was it because the president-elect used twitter, spent $7 a vote, very little. >> and he used twitter -- >> and he used twitter. >> extraordinarily -- well, you could say -- put the adjective you want. he used it, right? we can argue whether or not he used it well. but, listen, you think about -- i was on twitter all night last night, not because -- just to learn what was going on. it's a great source of news. maybe that's -- maybe it's lost on everybody but a few of us here, i don't know. but to tim's point, i still think it's too valuable of a property to trade where it's trading. >>. it's an incredible source. the problem is the monetization process and the growth. until they can fix both of those two, we've got a problem looking at twitter. they have been stuck in the mud for so long, and now you're talking about more changes at the top. that's another issue. they need some stability. they obviously -- >> i don't know how they're not going to have a massive hangover after this. we have been all attached to our screens with this thing. i don't know about you, i'm done
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with it. i really need to get away with it. >> but you own it. >> yeah, i'm almost done with this. >> we all -- >> he's almost done with the stock too. so what is going to push you now? >> you know, this is something that's really interesting. when you start to lose influence -- remember mark andreessen went off it a few weeks ago, he had a lot of opinions. when you lose a few pillars in whatever your vertical is, it becomes less interesting, more trolly. i'm sick of the trolls. i don't want to interact with them any more. so i think this thing is going to become a utility for a larger tech company, and it's going to be -- make marc benioff had the right answer. maybe it is some sort of sas sort of thing for businesses to deal with -- customer service or something like that. >> when are you going to sell? >> i'm just sick of it. >> but the whole point here, and guy said, the engagement is kicking it. that to me is where the value is. >> all right. still ahead, mylan volatile in the after hours session, following a big rally today. what will a trump presidency
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mean for the biotech space? we will explore. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> honey, wake up. you won't believe the dream i just had. >> it was no dream. and the trump presidency could have big implications for the fed and the bond market. the head of fisksed income for vanguard. we'll tell you how to profit. plus, with trump now heading to the white house, there's one dow stock that traders see having a huge rally into year-end. the name when "fast money" returns.
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house. the s&p up more than 1% and the dow closed 47 points away from its record high. here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. equities weren't the only ching surging today. the yield rose above 2% on the heels of trump's victory. how will it impact next month's fed decision. plus, it's the one energy stock that some traders see surging. we'll tell what it is and what has them so excited. but first, we start off with a big tech, because there were five mega cap names that sat out today's rally. could this be a sign of things to come. for silicon valley with donald trump in office. chart master, carter brox braxton worth with the hardiest hit stocks. >> it's not a case of these not being sold as not being bought. and it's an important situation in the sense that if you look back to late october when we had the following circumstance, top five stocks equal the weight of the bottom 250 in the s&p, when that circumstance which is fairly rare occurs, what happens going forward is the top five as
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a basket underperform the bottom 250. here we are, three weeks later and it's under way and continues today. so to look at stats, these are obviously the names you know and the red arrows tell you the tale. meaning in a fairly green day for the market, you have what are some of the most important stocks and also the top five stocks in the market all down, versus benchmarks of which they are a part going up. so the issue here, though, is that reversion is a powerful principle. impetuous moves off the low in certain cyclical names as you saw today as you get rotation out of this thing. but the net of it is -- yes, this should continue to underperform. and then at some point, the impetuous moves, like some of the names you spoke of, uri, don't continue. because they themselves are just that, overbought, all in a second. in any event, i just want to look at a chart of this and then i'm done. so it's the same chart from late
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october. this -- a group chart of the top five stocks in the s&p. those big tech names. and what we know is, that they have worked perfectly along this trend line. i mean, this is about the sixth or seventh time they've bounced off this line. and what we have to make the bed is, and that's the point, we're going to check back. and so you want to be underweight these, at least by my work, and not so soon from here, or at least you want to be fading the cyclical moves that have come off the low. so not the greatest setup. i know people love the action today, but i would say it's -- suspect. >> suspect. should we invite the chart master here to this desk? >> of course we should. >> of course. >> we haven't invited everybody over. come on over, carter! thank you for bringing the chair. >> looked really impressive. >> handsome man. >> who wants first crack at carter braxton worth. >> dan is loaded for bear. >> go get him.
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>> listen -- hey -- >> just saying, go get him. >> graces us with his presence every week. he and i and mel do "options action" every friday. let me tell you something. when he does that one where it's going to come back to that uptrend, usually nails it on that. so here's the thing. what's it going to take for them to break that uptrend and really kind of see a shift in momentum. because we can agree that the momentum has been bottom left, upper right, it just comes back to the trend. >> well, if you think the momentum that was in starbucks or home depot or lowe's eventually momentum does break in a meaningful way. this is the check back, often the beginning of what should be more giveback. but again, not so much these were sold as it is, they weren't -- braced the way everything else was. obviously, it was banks and cyclical names, names people feel somehow donald trump's presidency will affect. but if the market sometimes is ahead of itself, how much of what might be coming is already priced in by the moves and the uri or some of the steel names.
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i would say a great deal. >> you have been looking for expansion of this market. in fact, you argued very eloquently, top five stocks. this say problem. so isn't this exactly what you want to see for the rest of your broader chart work? >> what you want, right, is more participation, and not clustering into a few names. and today over the last, let's say five, six weeks, some rotation out of the name. but the broad aggregate, if you look where the russell 3000 is, where you guys were talking about -- let's talk about something more important than that. you use the dow jones industrial average. what with we know is the dow jones composite, the 30 industrials, 20 transports and 15 utilities, hasn't made a high since 2014. meaning that's the oldest aggregate at all. the transports -- we're still not out of the woods. the notion that somehow this is the beginning -- >> some people over the fakd the s&p is a percent or so away. the dow jones industrial average, a quarter point or 50 point. >> makes headlines, right? >> what our pointing to, that's the real tell?
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it's a defect to the notion that we're on the -- let's put it this way. you have to put yourself in a bokt. personally or all of us. are you in the camp that this is the setup for an important advance in equities. or are you in the camp that this is just more of the same. we're stuck. we're going nowhere and things are peekish. i'm in that bucket but i have clients in the first bucket. >> this is where technicals and fundamentals need to -- you need to weigh them both. you can make an argument the iyt or the transports had no reason to be breaking out. let's face it. the news over the last couple days -- the news people are homing in on today. is that suddenly we're in a brave new world for infrastructure and things and for moving stuffer around. >> and what's so classic, if you think about all of the ways to approach investing, whether you're going to do a dividend or cap m, the oldest of all is dow theory. literally. dow theory, we know. the dow transports is nowhere near its high. a classic bull trap, people buy and the transports are well off where they should be. >> all right. carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of
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cornerstone. >> let me tell you something. is that okay -- can i say that? >> you just did. you're going to say it again. anyway -- transports. 52-week high. not near a record high as carter aptly points out. ksu. was the real laggard today. >> for obvious reasons. >> i think tim is talking about -- we have talked about that for a long time. the flush today in ksu -- the word you used the other night and i mentioned it last night in your absence, conciliatory towards mexico. this will be the case. the selloff, in my opinion, was completely overdone, especially given the volume that it traded. >> you got your climax sell in mexico. i think if you look at the volume and you look at the sentiment at the peak, at the bottom, the currency weak for the exports are good for them. any immediate legislation that pushed mexico to the curb, i think, isn't happening. markets have priced an extraordinary amount.
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look at the technicals or the bottom and i think you've got that in ksu. you deductible got it in the pe peso. >> be honest with me. today you're looking -- >> wait, that implies that sometimes he's not. >> i take that back. >> it's all good. >> tell me, pete -- how is that? >> rotational market. that's what he said, right? >> were you concerned when tech wasn't participation? >> no. >> you weren't. not at all. >> because of the -- >> not an iota of concern. >> here's why. i already know the earnings and we're trading off the numbers from the presidential election. that's what everybody was trading off of today. so obviously, infrastructure play was one of the big winners. health care, big winners. but technology -- just sort of sat there. look at microsoft, be intel, some of these names. apple did pull back. i go to the earnings and the real numbers, that's what's going to make these things move to the up side. the last couple quarters have been strong. i think that continues. >> still ahead, donald trump suggests he would fire fed chair janet yellen during his campaign trail. so will the president-elect stick to his word?
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for those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people. i'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country. >> that was president-elect donald trump giving his victory speech in midtown manhattan, last night. trump talking about a unified america, comments in stark contrast no those made in his campaign, particularly in regards to the fed. dom chu in the news room, breaking this down. >> melissa, guys, he said a lot during the course of this campaign with regard to his views on the market and the economy. but when it comes to the interest rate credit bond markets, whatever you want to call it, as a real estate investo invest investor, he's had a lot of experience there. but he does have some interesting views with regard to how he views debt. take a listen to what he told us early on with regard to how he feels about the use of debt. >> i am the king of debt. i do love debt.
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i love debt, i love playing with it. but, of course, now you're talking about, you know -- you're talking about something that's very, very fragile. and it has to be handled very, very carefully. >> he's referring specifically to the threat of rising interest rates. and all of that has to do with what's going on with the fed and possibly having interest rates rise. he does have some very strong opinions about janet yell less than ayellen and the role of th fed. >> we are in a big, fat, ugly bubble. we better be awfully careful. and we have a fed that's doing political things. this janet yellen of the fed. the fed is doing political by keeping the interest rates at this level, and believe me, the day obama goes off, and he leaves, and he's goes to the golf course to play golf, when they raise interest rates, you're going to see some very bad things happen. because the fed is not doing their job. the fed is being more political than secretary clinton. >> what's interesting today, guys, is we have also learned
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from a senior trump adviser, she told the "wall street journal" that donald trump is not, in fact, asking for janet yellen's resignation, but they are looking to perhaps let her finish out her term but maybe she wouldn't be asked to renew for a second term. all of this had some move, of course, with regard to ten-year yields and the election. if you take a look at the chart of those ten-year yields, we saw a huge, huge bid, a safety bid, if you will, come up for the ten-year notes. that pushed yields way down and all of a sudden they snapped right back up again to some of these highs, and we vice president seen a move up in yields like this for the ten-year since august 11th of 2011. that just shows how big of a move it was. so all of this with the election and everything else is having a very, very massive move, guys, on the interest rate picture, melissa. back over to you. >> all right, thank you, dom chu. so will trump take on janet yellen, and what will it mean for the bond market, which as dom mentioned, a huge selloff. greg davis at vanguard. greg, i want to get your thoughts on the move in the bond
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market, particularly the tell-year. it was an extraordinary move. how do you read that message? >> i mean, i think the best way to interpret it is that, you know, the market -- the market is taking into account, you know, a president-elect trump's desire to use fiscal stimulus, and you know, in that type of backdrop, with fiscal stimulus, potential tax reform and those types of efforts, that should be pro growth, it should help the economy heat up to some degree. there's some likelihood that inflation will start to pick up, and, you know, given we've been had a relatively low rate environment, it's not surprising we saw a pretty significant backup in treasuries. >> you still expect the fed will raise in december and given the rise we saw in today's session, where do you see us ending the year in terms of the ten-year yield. >> i mean, it's going to be difficult to -- i definitely think that the fed is going to raise rates in december. i mean, again, they have been hypotheticaling towards this all year, they have a strong desire to get away from this very accommodative, you know, lower
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bound of interest rates. and so i think that's definitely going to happen in december. you know, in terms of where the market takes us over the course of the next couple months through year-end, it's really going to be a function of what kind of confidence do we have in the economic growth in the u.s. signs of inflation expectations picking up and things of that nature. so, you know, it's really going to be dependent upon the data that comes out. >> so already, you know, trump has said in the past he would likely allow janet yellen to finish out her term but then replace her at the end of the term, february 2018, because he thinks that would be appropriate. in the meantime, though, he has the opportunity to shape the fed by appointing people to the -- there be a couple vaiks there. how does that influence what the fed does. are we underestimating the pace and the number of hikes to come? >> i mean, i think, you know, monetary policy has been one lever that's been used, you know, substantially in the u.s. we have seen it by the ecb, we have seen it by the junk of japan.
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the thing missing -- that missing ingredient has been some twin citi fiscal policy. so having someone like donald trump come into office, you know, we are going to see some push to try to get fiscal stimulus enacted. and that should be positive in terms of economic growth. so, you know, the appointment of, you know, a couple new fed governors over the course of the next year or so i don't think will have a huge impact. it's going to be more about what kind of policy action do we see out of washington. >> greg, it's tim. thanks for coming on. at what point does this move up and yields have an impact on the credit markets, a substantial impact. we saw how yield started to sell off. it really sold off towards the end of the day. >> i think, you know, when you think about, you know, investors and, you know, what's going to be driving corporate spreads. we saw a nice pop in the equity market today after a pretty tough night last night. those types of functions in terms of stronger economic growth, slightly less regulation, you know, tax reform, those are all positive
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from a fundamental economy standpoint. so those should be supportive of investment grade spreads, high yield and equities, as well. >> greg, we're going to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us, greg davis. >> thanks for having me on. >> where do you think rates go now? >> obviously, i thought they have been going down for a long time. and for a while -- >> i know -- >> this move today was scary. you talk about bond going up for the right reasons or rates going up for the right reasons, wrong reasons, i'm not quite sure why they went up today as dramatically as they did. but that debt that mr. donald trump in his words likes to play with, it got a lot more expensive today. and that doesn't go well going forward. if it moves slowly up, that's one thing. but 30 basis points in a day is not -- a positive thing. >> so how do you finance fiscal stimulus? with more debt, right? if rates are going higher, it becomes that much more expensive for the government. and since when do republican, house and senate like to spend on those sorts of things? to me, this has -- has the
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makings with all of the deregulation that howard was just talking about, of a coming financial crisis. >> to be clear, we get a lot of doom and gloom on this were people who talk about the sky is falling. you guys are not doing that. but debt payments as a percentage of gdp are at their lowest in 50 years. and u.s. public fiscal spending as a percentage of gdp, we haven't been this low in probably longer than that. the fed, the government, there is room to finance this stuff. and i think this is not a bad idea. >> let's take a look at shares of mylan as we head to break. the stock has been volatile in the after hours session. we'll bring the latest in the company's conference call. and it's the one energy stock that has traders pounding the table. how you can profit. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this?
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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on mylan. meg terrell has got all of the details from the call. >> that's right, melissa. i have just topped after the mylan call. first on alex onafter being halted. the company delaying its filing as it investigates a former employee's allegations of improper sales practices around its giant rare disease drug, sew leeris.
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so that stock has now resumed trading. down 2.5%. over to mylan. a miss in the third quarter, but they did reaffirm their 2016 guidance, as well as their important 2018 guidance. that stock unchanged in the after hours. the conference call just wrapping up. a lot of questions on the health of the u.s. business. the potential launch of the generic epipen. what impact that will have on the u.s. business. heather bresch, the ceo of the company, making comments on the call about just the sort of communications around the epipen, the fact they have sort of blown open this whole thing about pricing and that they hope this conversation will continue. other companies have started to take this up, as well. now that the election is behind us. she said she hopes that more facts will start to come out around this. this, of course, on the backdrop of the ibb just soaring today after the election as folks expect that a lot of the pricing pressures on the industry will be alleviated under a republican sweep, mel. >> so there is no thought, meg, that this was an issue for both sides of the aisle.
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>> apparently not, melissa. with this results, people just seem to think, you know, pressure is off. on drug pricing and also thinking there may be some tax reform coming, which would help the drug industry. >> meg, thank you. wrapping up the mylan call. pete, you were mentioning -- big cap phrma, the mercks, the pfizerers -- >> mylan would not be on my list of names i would want to be involved with. just because i think there will be some pressure on symptom. maybe some of the pressure has come off. i think there is going to be pressure on certain biotech names and epipen that has been in front of the public so much. i think there will remain pressure on them. probably why they missed. all of these issues in front of them still. i think there are better places to be and you're bottom-picking if you're trying to grab this one. >> guy? >> better places to be. but they reaffirmed guidance, $6 a share. look at the low teens earnings growth and a company that's been obliterated because of all the things they did to themselves and all of the headlines, right? so you start putting a reasonable multiple on that
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stock. and when i say reasonable, 8.5, 9 times earnings and wherever the stock is right now, in my opinion, too cheap. shifting gears. a post election rally and one name in particular, exxon, has a trader betting on a surge ahead. dan, what is all of the action about? >> exxon, a short dated call -- >> that's -- >> average daily or about there. so, you know, one of the things these guys were talking about, crude oil. it was up about 50 bips. here's the thing hazard interesting about crude here. it stopped right where it was supposed to down there at 42 bucks. it is still below the up from trend. what is really interesting, when you compare it to the xle, the energy etf. 40% is exxon, chevron, and schlumberger. it's making a series of higher lows and kind of getting right back towards that breakout level, the prior highs. that's telling you that there is some pretty good price action,
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so those exxon calls, 10,000 of them -- the december '90 calls bought for 49 cents. that was the open. 39,000 traded on the day. that is some serious heat. they break even in about a month at 5.5%. you look at the exxon chart. this is 90. this was kind of a level here. listen, you know, this is a stock that trades with a 3.a% dividend yield or so. it's obviously pretty cheap. if we did get to trough other than over the last year or so, this is one where you could see above 90 with stable crude over the next month. >> pete, you not only noticed this trade. >> yeah, i bought it. i bought it, as well. i don't know, did you buy it today, dan, or -- i bought this because that number -- the number of -- contracts they decided to go for in here, even in exxon, as big as exxon is, they don't normally get that big. i had to participate. i actually think there is some upside from here. and if oil -- would be able to bounce back up and get towards 50 again, look out. >> let's unpack some of the big moves in energy.
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>> i like when you unpack -- >> a little higher -- coal higher. >> steel. >> copper is breaking out. >> and alternative energy sharply lower. >> some of the -- >> solars. >> yeah. for obvious reasons. but i think the -- the one that stuck out to me today, we talked about it earlier. if you want to be in the rails. the selloff in canals city, 13 normal times volume, that was the event if you want to be long the stock. >> if you look at the energy space, watch conoco phillips november 10th. >> all right. for more "options action"s, check out the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. tim seymour has a contrarian plan how to profit from the election. more "fast money," right after this. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren?
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a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water. won't replace the full value of your totaled new car. the guy says you picked the wrong insurance plan. no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, you won't have to worry about replacing your car because you'll get the full value back including depreciation. and if you have more than one liberty mutual policy, you qualify for a multi-policy discount, saving you money on your car and home coverage. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement
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with e*trade. i'm in vests and as a vested investor in vests i invest with e*trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars. time for the "final trade." this should be interesting. pete. >> bank of america. 95,000 calls were bought in bank of america today. to the up side. looking for the 18 strike and higher. bank of america is going higher. >> tim. >> at 4:00 a.m., the mexican peso hit its low. i think you can own mexico, the central bank will defend that currency.
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eww. >> dan. >> twitter, i'm almost out. >> in the vein of options -- >> you remember your final trade now. >> give me some -- what do you mean, now? the chicago mercantile exchange. say it, say it! >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for thanks for watching. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. it seems nuts. how can you have a mini bear market and then a resumption af bull market within a 24-hour
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