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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  November 9, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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eww. >> dan. >> twitter, i'm almost out. >> in the vein of options -- >> you remember your final trade now. >> give me some -- what do you mean, now? the chicago mercantile exchange. say it, say it! >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for thanks for watching. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. it seems nuts. how can you have a mini bear market and then a resumption af bull market within a 24-hour
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period? that's almost exactly what happened when you consider that last night at 12:45 a.m., the s&p futures were indicated down when it became clear that trump would win. and a back of the envelope calculation by me came to roughly a 7% decline when the market would open. a decline that was unrealized and then tossed aside when the day dawned and grew light with the dow ultimately gaining 257 points today. s&p climbing 1.1%. and the nasdaq finishing the same, up 1.1%. the market's now up close to 4% for the week, which means if we can hold at these levels, this will be the best week of 2016. i know you're puzzled. i know it's hard to believe that someone who is regardeds at the enemy of the stock market last night can be embraced as an old friend by mid-morning. but i want to explain, just put it in plain english so that you can understand what's happening here. to begin, though, you have to
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get into the heads of the people who actually bought stock, people who committed capital today. that's what's often the key to figuring out a rally. that's how you'll know whether it was down right absurd, totally insane, but then of course turned out to be anything but. so let me list the types of buyers, the people who came in with real money, why they were motivated to do so, and how they moved the market. the first buyers, the people who have been waiting for this gaos darned election to end already. these are investors who recognized that the nastiest election in ages simply had to finished playing out before they could commit their capital. there were just too many questions. too much rancor. too much plain old confusion and uncertainty to feel prudent before pulling the trigger without knowing the results. i want you to think about these people as agnostic buyers. they weren't goi going to buy s matter who won. they wanted to be sure the market wasn't going to crash
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after the results came in. it pretty much did crash for traders who sit around in their pajamas and trade the futures like idiots. the people who sold everything last night, 9 people who said to sell everything, let's say they aren't worth a bucket of worm spit, a phrase fdr's first vice president used. i'll railed against these sell everything folks for months but obviously it doesn't matter. what are those guys doing with their dr. denton feet pajamas? the second group, those who wanted to see a smooth transition. they didn't care who won, allowing america's long transition of peaceful transfer of power to continue. the smooth transitional cohort got an instant one-two doze of gratification first with trump's victory speech and then the second with hillary's concession a little after 11:00. these buyers really did
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everything -- they bid everything up. did you watch it during hillary's speech? they bid everything up. first when trump wasn't threatening to put hillary in jail, i think he may be more inclined to send her back to yale, where she went to law school. the third set of buyers? those who see in donald trump a businessman who will cut taxes and borrow a ton of money to fix our nation's infrastructure. these buyers know trump is comfortable with borrowing a lot of money. maybe even more than he can pay back if he has to. so why not do the same with the treasury given the 30-year rates are so cheap. the bond market traded today as if trump is going to issue a $500 billion long te-term bond fund bridges and tunnels. i actually think he should do that. the stocks i recommended year, martin marietta and vulcan were among today's leaders. plus when rich people get a tax cut, let me tell you something. rich people getting a tax cut, this is what goes through their
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head. >> hallelujah! >> and they tend to invest some of that money in stocks. >> buy, buy, buy. >> and rich people represent a pretty big constituency in the market. face it, rich people love it when their taxes are cut, and they love capital gains. so they love stocks. pretty simple. fourth group of buyers, the people who got this election completely and utterly wrong. no, not the pollsters, who after this election and brexit should have whatever licenses they have revoked. bunch of clowns if you ask me. chowder heads even. no, i'm talking about the short sellers who after fbi director comey first damned hillary with the weiner e-mails and then exonerated her days later, felt she was the biggest shoe in since richard nixon's triumph in 1972. now, if you're idly chit chatting about the pollsters and you took comfort in them, if you liked hillary, more power to you. but if you're a hedge fund manager and you saw those pollster numbers, you would have been really inclined to bet on a hillary clinton white house with
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perhaps a democratic senate majority. that would have been the death knell for pharma and banking stocks. a lot of people were having nightmares about what bernie sanders and elizabeth warren could do to those industries with the democratic majority in the senate. these money managers made gigantic short bets against both groups. now, at first if you were betting against whole sectors of this market, you looked like you'd be saved by the decline in the overnight futures. i could see the guys in their p.j.s at 11:30, 12:00, saying, we'll make a fortune tomorrow. once the smoke cleared and the sun came up, those guys took their lick nz. the short sellers had a major horror on their hands. they were looking good on their bank shorts initially because interest rates dropped as bonds were bid up. woo, trump. however, when we got a magnanimous handoff and a sense trump meant business when he talked about borrowing money to build out infrastructure, you witnessed a rise in interest rate which is nir vanvana for t
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banks. remember, they don't raise your deposit rates as much as they, well, they can make on them. meanwhile, pharma bounced. not only because the republicans aren't going to rip into the drug companies because they may let these companies repatriate their foreign capital. proposition 61, out. so short sellers had to come in and buy all their shorts, particularly in pharma. more on that later and of course the banks. both groups had what i call rip your lungs out rallies, whichablies me to the sfif set f buyers. more than a trillion and a half dollars, a lot in tech and drug stocks. more buy backs, more dividends, more deals, it was never going to happen with a democrat in the white house and a congress controlled by the gop. sixth group, those who believe that both the predatory nature of regulations and our foreign trade partners might have finally met their match. plenty of our ceos want free trade, but others taking their
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cue from the likes of dan ca mee co-former ceo of steel giant new corps, believe that we need a level playing field with our trade partners before we can do better. when it comes to regulation, what can i say? part of trump emphasis is to disrupt the status quo. nothing resonates with investors like stopping regulation that hurts jobs and businesses. a seventh group of buyers just found tons of stocks they like today. we've been harping on those defense contractors, monster moves. others want to invest in fossil fuels and feel like a trump e.p.a. would be less threatening. maybe there is no epa. he'll probably keep an epa. anyway, the pipeline companies in particular got a green light here. so did the coal toting railro railroads. finally there are people who are willing to bet that americans will be more inclined to go out and spend now that this election is over rather than sitting at home ordering that domino's no cheese pizza with banana peppers
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while playing grand theft auto and watching, i don't know, lou cage on netflix. maybe people will fix up their homes again. the refur bishment trade could be resurrected. there were enough of these to color the tape positively. to be sure the meerkt -- the simple fact is, there were a heck of a lot more people who wanted in after this election than wanted out. and a gigantic number of hedge funds who were on the wrong side of the trade and had to reverse their stance. so the bottom line, the coalition of the willing buyers cobbled together to produce an improbable rally. but then again, wasn't this whole darned election improbable? what a fitting way for it to end. john in georgia, john. >> caller: yes. my question is, do you believe that general dynamics is a good stock to own in the aerospace
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defense sector, especially under a presumptive administration? >> i think general dynamics is one companies in the country. how will barlarry in massachuse. >> caller: thanks for this morning's action alerts call. >> glad you could join us. >> caller: it was absolutely valuable during the whipsaw. i've got a soft financial question for a retirement account. airis capital corporation. you know it. floating rates. wide bunch of industries. yields a steady 10%. despite a downward rerating since i bought it in 2013 and with the fed beginning to rise and the overhang of congress, eliminated pretty much. do you like them as muches a slower black stone? >> i think we get a little freed up equity market. black stone does a little bitter. run by a pretty smart guy.
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saw him interviewed last week. so let's do that. let's make that switch. thank you for the kind words and for joining the conference call, which is on a replay. it was really wild because we sit there and went over the stocks and we're really going at it, duking it out over which we liked and which we don't. kind of like fantasy except it was reality. the 24-hour turnaround that caused the dow to swing more than 1,000 points may seem crazy, but when you get inside the heads of the buyers and the sellers, the improbable rally, often improbable election comes to focus. on mad tonight, the new face of washington has drastically changed the outlook. i'll give you the existing landscape. plus, how long will this post-election rally last, and what could bring it to an end? the warning signs to watch. and remember when we didn't just talk about the election? those times are returning. tonight i'm speaking with chipotle about its legacy and whether it can repair its reputation. hey, avocado got expensive. i know that from bar san miguel.
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after donald trump's stunning victory last night, coupled with the republican sweep of both houses of congress, we're suddenly looking at a very different stock market. this is a new environment, and we need to rerate -- that's a technical term -- a whole host of different groups. the biggest impact of this shocking election is probably in the health care group. remember, until the returns started coming in last night, hillary clinton was considered to be the odds on favorite to win the presidency with a decent likelihood of the democrats taking the senate. for over the year, the prospect of a clinton victory had been weighing down particularly the drug cohorts.
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from that moment on, the whole health care edifice was living under a cloud with wall street worried about congressional inquiries, exclusive actions or even actual price controls. thanks to last night's results, though, those worries have all been pretty much taken off the table. the republicans are the party of limited regulation and free markets. they're not going to crack down on drug pricing because they believe that will stifle innovation. you've heard that a million times. hence the mass of near 5% rally in the drg today. granted the republicans will try to repeal obamacare, which could hurt many health care plays but they'll just fill bus ter more on that for mow shows. a gop controlled senate means we don't need to fear interventionist committee chairman. running the budget committee or the labor and pensions, both relevant to health care. another surprise political development? in california, the voters
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defeated proposition 61, which would have prevented the state from paying a higher price for drugs than the department of veterans affairs and the v.a. gets the lowest prices of any government agency. that's another win for the drug makers. plus after getting beaten down for ages, many have dirt cheap valuations. some of these companies are engaged in price wars with competitors, like what's happening with the wholesale drug distributors. we want no part of that. for the segments of the health care sector that don't have price wars, i think we need to get a lot more positive because these stocks have a lot more room to run. in fact, many of these names are so cheap, i wouldn't recommend even if hillary won the election. that's how much this group has been punished already. but under president trump, the outlook for the sector, a lot brighter. cvs sold off almost 12% yesterday after reporting a mixed quarter. management says 2017 could be a challenging year. cvs might lose more than 40
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million prescriptions as pharmacy benefit managers like express scripts lock out their pharmacies. ouch. honestly, much of the weakness seems cvs specific. the business they're losing will probably go to walgreens and we told action alerts members that wba was the winner here. the people that bought cvs believe in the company's prospects or they wouldn't have announced a buyback. i would not dump cvs. other negatives that jump out. valiant reporting another disainterest poing quarter. refused to give a forecast for 2017 except to say the numbers are going lower. hence why valiant lost 20% of its value yesterday. this company has got an ugly balance sheet, and i still consider the stock down right toxic. >> don't buy, don't, don't, don't buy. >> however, there's a lot to like in the rest of the health care space as long as you're careful to avoid the competitive land mines. on monday before the election, lindsey bell from s&p capital
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came out with a terrific piece where she made some important points. despite the political rhetoric, bell noted that many sub sectors are still doing just fine. the valuations in the group had gotten very expensive. at the same time, the dividend yields have been on the rise. in fact, despite the weakness in the health care stocks going into the election, nearly every sub category in the health care industry delivered better than expected numbers this earnings season. so the health care stock -- if the stocks have become too cheap to ignore, where should you put your money to work? first let me just say that you need to avoid the price war situations, and that includes the drug distributors like amerisourcebergen, mckesson. they were all up today, big. so use that strength to scale out, not dump. scale out of these. some pharma companies are facing price competition, eli lilly, mylan. know vo nor tis is the poster child here.
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that's facing price competition on insulin and public shame for price increases. if you own these, reposition. what works, then? for starters, i think merck is one of your best bets. here's a company that's gotten a lot of good news lately, including for their big anti-cancer franchise, keytruda. merck is now in the lead when it comes to next generation cancer drugs, particularly after the public setbacks in the bristol-myers. merck rocketed up on the election results but even after this move, it's only 16.5 times next year's earnings estimates. solid dividend yield. that is too cheap. >> buy, buy, buy. >> how about pfizer, pfe? here's a stock that's facing terribly negative sentiment in recent much but i think the company remains a powerhouse. granted it soared 7% today, but the stock is five points off its highs. i regard that has very cheap,
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especially again considering the 3.7% yield. third, i've been a fan of celgene. it's now not my cup of tea up so high. it's down from its peak in july of 2015 and some of these declines were not from politicians. part of it may be because investors got used to celgene beating the numbers every time it reported, but in late 2015, early 2016, the company only managed to meet the numbers. still when they reported again a few weeks ago, they were back to their old ways, blowing away the estimates. in the end. this is a company with 27% revenue growth. that is absurdly cheap, people, even after today's run. it feels like something good is happening there. i haven't been able to pin it down. fourth, aller jan had been a tarred and feathered stock along with tev va and mylan, and it missed its earnings estimates because of some pledges not to raise some old drug prices.
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i was unhappy. i don't expect price increases. the ceo has said they're not going to do them but it has gotten ridiculous that allergan is the fastest growing pharmaceutical stock with the lowest multiple. believe me, i love yield. but give me growth any day of the week. allergan has growth in spades. i trust the ceo to deliver a ton of new drugs in 2017, and i hope he comes here very soon. finally i think it's worth noting that walgreens boots alliance sold off yesterday on the commentary from cvs, but one of the main problems with cvs is they're losing money to walgreens. now, today walgreens regained all the ground in lost yesterday. but with trump taking the white house, i think the prospects get even brighter? why? it's more likely the company's rite aid acquisition will pass muster with the regulators once president obama is out of office. let me give you the bottom line. i've been telling you we can figure out how to make money regardless of who wins the white house. with last night's surprise trump victory, things are looking a lot better for the health care
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cohort even after their rally today. there's still plenty of sub sectors within health care that have their own problems. but if you know what you're looking for, i think you identify long term winners. these stocks all worked hard today and while of course i prefer a pullback, you know that's me. frankly as we are near the day knew mont of 2016, i don't know if you'll get a big one. plenty more mad ahead including the future of chipotle. is a turn coming for the battered burrito maker? i got the cfo. plus what impact will the election have on the american oil and gas industry? tonight i've got one of the best and brightest executives in the space to tell us about it. but first, seven questions floating around wall street that could bring this post-election rally to an end. not ignominious but still an end. stay with cramer.
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far be it from me to throw cold water on any delicious rally, relief or otherwise. but a week from now, we will probably not be talking about a magnanimous donald trump and a gracious hillary clinton around here. 3.5% rally is the strongest in 2016. i'm not saying they'll be pointing fingers any more or trash talking every minute. i'm saying we'll be stuck in a world of some unknowns. those unknowns will be a source of anxiety and therefore selling. when the euphoria dies down, here's what we'll be thinking about. first how independent will the federal reserve be under president trump? will janet yellen finish her term? two, we think that trump will green light mergers, right, because they're really good for
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business. but what if he says they're all anti-competitive and appoint people to bhok them like he wants the time warner at&t type up blocked. maybe he puts a stop to the big health care mergers, which are already being contested by justice. m&a has been a major prop of this market. we don't want it to go away. three, what if trump is true to his word and manages congress to help kill nafta. we get higher prices and inflation, not positive for stocks. you may not the jobs they take away. but you certainly like the cheap price of goods that nafta makes possible. four, who is going to be the treasury secretary? what if he picks a real rebel? so much for the big bank stock rally. five, what if trump starts a trade war. it's one thing to bust nafta and demand fair trading, we've been on the losing end of our trade deals forever. in the typical trade deal, for example, we late the chinese trading partners make stuff and pollute the hell out of the environment which then wafts its way over here.
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then they ship the product over here under cost to keep their jobs and take ours away. that's been the procedure. but what if the chinese decide to stop buying boeing airplanes? what if the communist party stops allowing under armour to open stores or sell goods. they could do that. maybe they say no to our diapers, baby formulas, shampoo, toothpaste or take away slots from our airlines or slap tariffs on our cars. if that happens, the earnings estimates will be slashed for many of the stocks that rallied today. six, what if the move in interest rates keeps accelerating? mortgage rates go up too fast, housing does get hurt. those housing stocks already were jarred today. in the meantime, the packaged good services companies with high yields and the utilities, their stocks will be annihilated. what happens if we start drilling for more oil at the same time the dollar soars
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because of our higher interest rates? an american made glut in oil has typically meant lower stock prices, a stronger dollar clips earnings estimates for the big international enterprises. i'm not saying be careful for what you wish for. this rally was terrific. my bottom line, i'm simply acknowledging that we'll soon be factoring in some of these more sobering narratives. don't get cocky. relief rallies don't last when faced with a new set of facts unless the facts are bullish. otherwise, they just tend to fade away. how about mike in my old home state of pennsylvania, mike. >> caller: hi, jim. >> mike. >> caller: jim, because of proposition 61 and constant pressure to lower prescription drug prices, should i sell or hold most of my pharmaceutical stocks including bristol-myers squibb? >> no, no, you don't have to -- part of the new regime that we got today is a regime that i think will look the other way at
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price increases. that was then, and this is now. new page. obviously they can investigate, but if the republicans own the house and they own the senate and they own the white house, it's just not going to be a focus. i think they're going to think there's other things they got to look at. i think you're kind of home free. how about vince in illinois, vince. >> caller: hey, jim. young trader here in chicago, illinois. >> all right. >> caller: due to the possible repeal of obamacare, what do you think about wcg well care health plans which specialized in unh health care? >> i don't think you need to be in these. i think there's so much in the health care group that is now suddenly working, why are we courting this kind of thing? why can't we go and buy allergan, which to me is the company that was considered to be the worst actor yesterday, and today may be the best actor. let's go with the flip. today the market basks in the glory of the smooth transition
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of a democratic government. just like every other time. but when the honeymoon is over and washington gets back to work, things could change quickly. please don't be foolish. nobody ever got hurt taking a profit. still more "mad money" ahead including the outlook on chipotle. i'll give you an update on the stock in my exclusive with the company. then does the outlook for american oil and gas change in a trump administration? my exclusive with an industry executive who has gotten it right. plus, a finally the election is over special edition of the lightning round! so stick with cramer. you do all this research on a perfect car, then smash it into a tree. your insurance company raises your rates. maybe you should've done more research on them. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to
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last night i argued the dramatic slowdown in the restaurant business in recent months was caused by people hunkering down at home to fret about the election. that's only one piece of the stay at home thesis and there are plenty of other headwinds. cheap groceries make home cooking less expensive. you can get all kinds of entertainment without leaving the house, and there's way too much competition in the restaurant space. throw in an additional problem on top of these, and it gets even harder. consider the case of chipotle, the one beloved chain with a stock that went into free fall a
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little over a year ago thanks to public health scares. when it last reported on october 25, the company earned just 27 cents a share. its revenue also came in lighter than expected, falling nearly 15% year-over-year. even worse, chipotle's same-store sales declined. however, given that the food safety issues that first occurred last october, chipotle is going to start facing some much easier comparisons going forward. as i have said many times, maybe a dozen times, it typically takes about 18 months for a restaurant chain to recover from this kind of health scare. if that's the precedent and it holds, things should start to pick up in the next five months. plus if i'm right that worries about the election have been preventing from eating out, it's possible the industry to get a boost going forward. has chipotle gotten to the point where we can start thinking about a bottom? let's check in with jack hartung, the chief financial officer of chipotle. mr. hartung, welcome back to
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"mad money." >> thanks for having me. >> jack, we have been saying that there's just been this kind of national ill will, malaise going on, not unlike 1979 with jimmy carter where people didn't want to go out. they were hunkering down. any chance you think now this election is over, it could be a era of, let's say, better feeling? >> i hope so, jim. i know there's been softness generally. we faced our challenges throughout the year. but generally in the restaurant industry, there's been a softness. i think there's been a lot of distraction with the election, a lot of negativity with the election, a lot of just concern about the election. hopefully with that behind us, hopefully we can all go about our daily lives and, you know, hopefully that means a lot more dining out as well. >> chipotle has always been pretty independent of washington. you've always treated your employees in a different way. you're not a minimum wage shop. does it impact you? you know, two houses, both the senate and the house being republican and the president. is there any just i mean regulation, kinds of things we hear about in the regular news,
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matter at all to you guys? >> probably not, jim. anything that affects us, let's say it's on minimum or regulation, it's going to affect every restaurant out there. so we feel like as long as we do a great job with hiring the right people, training them to deliver an excellent experience, and delight our guests when they come in, if things like minimum wage or other things that allow costs to creep in, we'll have the opportunity with our economic model, especially as we restore it after recovering from the events of last year, we'll have the ability to either absorb those into our model or to pass on some of the higher costs to our customers. i think we're in the same boat as everyone else. i don't think there's anything in particular that would affect us more than any other restaurant company. >> when i was looking at your last quarter, you put out the notes. i was trying to figure out why did you make it so hard for yourself? you put out projections for 2017, 195 to 210 restaurants, same-store sales growth in the high single digits. why make it so difficult? i mean it's been a tough time. it's really hard to forecast. you're spending all this money being sure you're number one in food safety. you have to retrain people.
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why make it even tougher by putting out projections that just make it so it's actually, you know, an additional strain on a great company? >> yeah, you know, those are some stretch goals, jim. two things that we heard from our investors. we kept in close contact with our investors throughout this past year. in fact, we just came from a couple weeks of meeting with all of our largest investors. two things we heard over and over again is they didn't really have visibility into the trends, either the sales trends or the margin trends. the other thing they asked is what is the earnings power? what is the margin and the earnings power based on this sales level? most people expect we'll recover our sales. it's not a matter of if but more, you know, when, over what time frame. but we got this question about how can you give us better visibility? and what is the earnings potential in both margin and then in eps, you know, terms, at these current sales levels. so we put together an internal plan, and we decided that we felt confident enough that we
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can put a stake in the ground in terms of what we think we can do from a sales standpoint. basically the sales projection we put for next year, which is the high single digit s a continuation of the recovery. and the recovery is happening at about a 1% per month range. we wish it was faster. but if we keep it on that range, we think we can hit that sales pattern, and we think, you know, we haven't really focused on driving efficiencies in the restaurant this year. we've been focused on recovering and then delighting customers. the last thing we wanted to do was try to overmanage our food costs, overmanage our labor costs such that we would deliver a less than great experience. now it's time for us to start to regain some of those efficiencies in those line items. we think we can do a better job in terms of negotiating our contracts and how we buy things like gloves and paper and things like that that don't affect the customer experience. we think with all that together, with our company rallied around driving those initiatives, we think we can deliver on the 20% margin and the $10 eps. they're not going to be easy targets but we owed it to our
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shareholders to put something out there in terms of what we can deliver. >> one thing i'm concerned about is i love -- look, we've been eating chipotle the whole way. i love that. >> thank you. glad to hear it. >> i always love the fact that you guys are focused on trying to get the best tasting food and having it fresh. but now you got some rowdy shareholders. you've had to hire a banker. i mean these are the distractions that i don't want to see my chipotle have. are you able to get past them? are these rowdy shareholders okay, or do they want you to refranchise or do some financial thing that is not in your dna? >> again, we've been in close contact with all of our shareholders, including we've had productive dialogue with the purchasing group as well. everybody is on the same page in terms of wanting to restore chipotle to our previous greatness. what that means is recovering customers, recovering sales, and then recovering our industry-leading economic model. that's true with the investors
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that have been with us for a long time, some newcomers who have come on and bought our stock at these low prices, including percentiing pursing a. the dialogue we've had with pursing has talked about driving long term shareholder value, talks about recovering the business model. from what they've said so far, they believe that chipotle is a special brand, and we're going through a tough time right now. and, you know, they want, just like everyone else, to see us recover our sales, recover our business. if we do that, we're going to get back to our previous stock price and add shareholder value from there. all of our shareholders are aligned. nobody likes the pace that the recovery has happened, and i'm happy to hear you say it's more likely to take 18 months. but, you know, all of us wish, including us, wish that this was further along. but all of us are on the same page in terms of let's get the recovery under way, and if we do, that the stock will take care of itself. >> we had greg creed on, i
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usually don't like to talk about taco bell in the same breath. it's a different industry. but they're taking out some of the preservatives. they're trying to get more fresh, natural, organic. jack in the box, you know, has done a little bit better. do you have to worry about competitors you had left in the dust because of this difficult time? >> no. in fact, we love the fact that other restaurant companies are looking to sustain -- to buy more sustainably raised ingredients, more natural ingredients and remove some of the artificial ingredients out of their food. we feel like we've been a pioneer in that. we think the more customers are aware of what's in their food, the more they're aware of how the ingredients are raised and how they're cooked, the more discerning they're going to be. the most discerning customers, the more they learn, we think they're going to come to chipotle. we applaud the fact more and more customers are trying to follow our lead. >> do i have to worry at all the buy back has tapered off a bit here? >> the way i would think about the buy back jim is we used our balance sheet when the stock really inflected and pushed down
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after the events of last year. we used our strong balance sheet and brought about a billion dollars worth of stock from our balance sheet. now we're using operating cash flow. even though we're in a weakened state from our margins and earnings standpoint, we're still able to fund all of our openings with internal capital and then have excess capital to buy our stock back. so we're buying more based on operating capital right now. we'll be able to, as we restore the mod and restore our margins, we'll have even greater excess free cash flow and be able to buy at an accelerated rate as well. we'll continue to buy back stock, but it's going to be more based on excess operating cash flow. >> excellent. i want to thank you. you guys never hid. you never decided i'm not going to talk about it. you've been very straightforward with our viewers, and you know we think chipotle mexican grill will come back. thank you so much, jack hartung, cfo of chipotle. good to see you, sir. >> thank you, jim. >> it is bottoming. but remember the time frame. we've traced it out many, many times. it is not ready to take off yet in my opinion. but, boy, it's good.
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>> it is time! it is time for the lightning round! that's where i take your calls rapid fire. you tell me the stock. i tell you to buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell. we'll play this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." let's start with sam in north carolina, sam. >> caller: booyah, jim! >> booyah. >> caller: what about exr? when do i get in? >> no, no. rates are going higher. that's that whole point about what happened today with the ten-year bond. so, no. we're going to stay away from that stock until we get a bit of higher yield by having the stock go lower. imagi madge, in maryland, madge. >>. >> caller: as baby boomers age, there's a growing need for health care in real estate including medical office buildings and assisted living facilities. i wanted to know what your advice is for investing in health care -- >> right now i'm a little down on medical buildings. there's some weakness in the sector. we're going to stay away. don't need that risk.
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let's go to john in california, john. >> caller: hey, booyah, jim. we love you here in northern, california. your san francisco show was great. >> i can't wait to get back out. i'm trying to get my second producer to check off on my next trip. >> caller: there you go. my question, jim, my ceo of the company i'm going to ask about what's pretty supportive of hillary, and she lost. warren buffett, what do you think the outcome is going to be with some of these people that didn't support trump? >> absolutely nothing. in the end, i don't know how magnanimous he'll be, but i know warren buffett knows how to make money. he makes money in every kind of situation and he's also a great american. nick in california, nick. >> caller: hey, jim. booyah. >> booyah. >> caller: just call is coast amare, buy or sell. >> oh, no, man. that's a container ship play. we don't like that. container ships. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! [ buzzer ]
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>> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. people on options st. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.
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for months i've been telling you that even with the price of crude fluctuating in the 40s, i like oil companies that are selling their own stock in order to make spark acquisitions in some of the most lucrative places to drill in america. recently ca re sew oil and gas joins that club. it's a small $2.4 billion independent exploration company with operations in the permian,
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delaware basin there, the utica shale in ohio, and in colorado too. the company is one of the lowest cost producers in the country, all right? in late october we learned it was buying 15,000 acres in the eagle ford shale from sanchez energy. needed the money, those guys. $181 million in cash. in order to pay for the deal, the company priced a secondary offering at $37.50 the next day. now, after that secondary, the stock pulled back, but last week carrizo reported a solid quarter. after today's rally, shares are nearly back up to where they were. i think this is the right strategy. can carrizo continue to rally? let's take a closer look with chip johnson, the president and ceo of carrizo oil and gas. mr. johnson, welcome back to "mad money." >> glad to be here. thank you, jim. >> chip, just got to ask the obvious question first because a lot of people who feel who's in the white house does matter for your business. i've looked at your business for a very long time. i think what matters to your
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business is how smart you guys are, your ingenuity, your low cost, and your findings. i don't know whether it matters who's present. would you agree? >> your 90% right. it never hurts to have rules and regulations go away that just slow us down. you know, i think the republicans are always going to be a little more business friendly than the democrats, so that could work out to our advantage. maybe some of these pipelines will get built that will reduce rail traffic. >> and it does seem like that the pipelines are very necessary. i saw some of the pipeline stocks up. i don't think people realize that we still have oil and gas in the wrong places versus where we need to send it. >> that's exactly right. you've got oil in north dakota, and it's a long way to refineries. it's a long way to get it there by rail. >> let's talk about the strategy that you did because this is what i've been urging companies to do, and you do it. i know you didn't need my help to tell you. you bought some really great acreage from a company that spent a lot of money when oil was a lot higher, and then you issued stocks. kept it so that your balance sheet is pretty pristine, and
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you can do another. how are you feeling about that trade now that you've been into it for a while? >> we're very happy with it. we bought acreage that adjoined our leases, so it makes it easy for us to drill longer wells across the lease lines. it made some of our acreage that was undrillable now drillable. we feel like we bought the acreage based on one layer of eagleford drilling and there might be two or three. it was a very nice deal for us. we've been working on deals like this for a year and finally got one to go. >> chip, i think that people think that oil companies are all created equal. when you look at your deck, at your slides, it's really clear you have much lower finding costs. so when you take a sanchez property, are you able to put those same service costs to work there to make it so that you can get oil out of the ground much cheaper than everybody else? >> i hope we can. i think there's some third-party research groups that have said we have the lowest break-even cost in north america of every
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company, at least in 2015. hopefully we can apply that. sanchez did a good job keeping their drilling costs down, but these properties were scattered for them, and they are core for us, and they're right next to our properties. so we can bring the operating costs down too by just scaling up their assets. >> a lot of companies were just kind of growing for the sake of growing with whatever the price is, $40, $39, i thought it was very interesting that you said at one of your conferences you're not going to leave money on the table. that you'll grow when it's right. you think that oil can go higher because you've got a really good debt situation. that's when you'll choose to grow. that's still your strategy, right? >> that's still it. by doing this equity deal to pay for this acquisition, it was accretive, and it also delevered us somewhat. so now our year end debt will be probably somewhere around three, which should put us better than the median in our group. we've announced we're going to add a drilling rig next year. we don't have to yet. the wells we're drilling right
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now would make almost a 50% rate of return at these prices. we feel like by the end of '17, the world's supply and demand is going to be in equilibrium. at that point, oil prices are going to start up. we know right now service costs are very low. we'd like to tap into that, drill and frack now while we're at the lowest service cost we may ever see, and then produce into that rising oil price next year. >> when i read through your notes, i did feel you had the highest of quality problems, chip. you seem to indicate it's possible that you hedged too much of your upside for next year because you really do believe in 2017 as a comeback year. >> that's exactly right. we've hedged strongly in the first half of '17, but we've tapered that off in the second half of '17. we don't want to have oil prices ramp up too fast and leave us locked in at lower prices while service costs are also going up. >> i want to circle back because it is election day. you mentioned there are some regulations that have stood in the way. carri carrizo, pretty straightforward company. what were some of the things
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that were being placed in your way or you feared that now maybe have a chance of not occurring? >> you know, actually for carrizo, there's not much. we're basically in states where we don't have much federal acreage and not a lot of federal oversight. we mostly work with the states. it was nice to see in colorado, though, that the raise the bar initiative passed that makes it harder to put ballot initiatives on the ballot every year to try to restrict drilling. now it almost has to be statewide interest in having that be on the ballot before it can happen. that will help us up there. >> i'm going to congratulate you. never ruined your balance sheet, never pumped when you didn't have to. chip johnson, president and ceo of carrizo oil and gas. great to see you, sir. >> thanks, jim. >> chip's serious. i like that. sno stick with cramer. that makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator
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with a guy with overactive sweat glands. sorry, rode my bike today. cool. hey it's your tv, take it with you. watch all your live directv channels, on at&t, data-free. ♪balance transferot to othat's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, creditcards.com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com. ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪
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i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try and find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow!
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>> on this episode of "supercars of the super rich"... check out one man's sterling $20 million collection of wheels that matches his wings. >> they're investments you can enjoy. you can't play with your coca-cola stock. >> then meet the car dealer who's placing a $5 million bet on this very rare ferrari. >> i could either make a half a million dollars or possibly lose a half a million dollars. >> next, hop on the super-rich toy that takes to the sea like a dolphin and hits the sand like a tank. and get to know the billionaire who loves to drive a $60 million supercar. >> "how could you possibly take that out on the road?" the answer is, to me, how could i possibly not? >> finally, find out what it

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